So it’s about searching for bookies who give better odds than the other bookies for a particular market and betting on it. It doesn’t require any sport knowledge.
If all the bookies were offering 1.90 on a coin flip, but one was giving 1.95 - it still wouldn't value! The reason is you know true odds are 2.00, thus to get the value you need more than that. If 10 bookies were giving 2.05 on this coin spin, and one was giving 2.10 - you are still getting value at the lower odds, so you can take what is on offer with all. The secret is getting higher EV odds, whether that be beating the betfair 100% odds, beating adjusted (100%) Pinnacle odds, or using a value betting software such as Rebelbetting (link in the description if you want to check it out - 2 weeks free). This scans the bookie sites and finds the ''over odds'' -- ps we are doing a video on the actual software next!
Great video, what do you recommend for tracing bets? is there a specific app or software you recommend? I’ve been tracking all my bets in excel manually and can be a bit time consuming especially with more volume bets and calculating ROI, win %, etc.
I wouldn't be the best to answer this because we don't use 3rd party services for such. However, some of our clients went to Fiverr and had someone make a database.
It's the value that counts (5% is obviously higher than 4.4%) - meaning the base odds (correct) were 2.00 for the 5% and 2.012 for the 4.4%. The other question doesn't make sense - All odds are based on probability.
I agree with 1 percent each bet placed but with only 2,000 pounds starting Bank Roll would You do 5 percent? And increase when Bank gets to 3,000 150 each bet 4,000 200 each bet 5,000 250 each bet and so on
What you are asking is would it be wise to be more risk-averse? You haven't revealed the type of bets (sport/odds), or where you will be betting (online/shops). If it's online, you would only be able to make a total of 20 bets at 5% each. For the sake of logistics (moving money around - having enough accounts), that would be a big issue! To take the ''gambling'' out of the equation, you need to give yourself a chance (the more funded accounts the better & reserve funds for reloading). My advice: Stick with 1% - just find more bets! Do not ignite withdrawals until the account is flagged (limited) Use a Value betting software such as REBELBETTING - bit.ly/3JIFTB1 (50% discount) and increase the number of bets made. Maybe look at adding ''each-way'' thieving on horses if that interests you. From the UK you should still be able to carve out 500 bonus on 2K which gives an extra start! Don't get greedy or try and force it - You should be able to double your bank every month for a while! Just do things right - and it will pay off!
Hey Tony, so I know a good way to check if a bet is a value bet, I simply just go to a betting exchange or a sharp bookmaker cause their odds are very accurate and then I just look for higher odds at soft bookmakers, but my question is? Is there any other method you can use to find value bets? Because one day, I’ll get limited from all the soft bookies and there is only the sharp ones left, is it still possible to find value bets on exchanges and sharp bookies??? If so, how? Research or?
Hey Lucas, When your accounts are drying up, you could look for third party betting accounts. That's why I did another video on Networking, being able to obtain accounts in other countries (and more in your own) is a good way to get at the softs. Furthermore, many softs have white label partners, so its possible to find the same odds! Another alternative is to use a betting broker for Asian bookmaker accounts, some of them are happy to lay winners. I know of several arbers (not even clever) making 100k a month from holding the right accounts. Betting in-play should give accounts more longevity, but at some stage you have to look at information gathering (finding profitable tips), or learn how to find you own bets. A best of two sport such as Tennis is easy if you learn to evaluate correctly, and know when to place bets!
The secret to using Betfair as a guide is strong liquidity. If you can get better odds than the 100% book price, you have found some value. While the bookies will eventually move BOG & Odds boosts from winning customers, worry about that when you make that stage! PS - Rather than look at the Betfair bet odds, take the middle (bet/Lay) as a better guide. For example, if the odds are 3.90 bet 4.10 lay, then the middle is 4.00. I have to reiterate, the market (liquidity) needs to be strong, and you need to acquire a feeling of what's wrong and right!
I have a question, if you find a market priced at 1.5 odds on pinnacle and 1.57 at a betting exchange pre event you have value. If you waited for the event to go inplay and after 5/10minutes the odds were now 1.65 would you have a 10%value bet? Thanks in advance
I'm assuming we are referring to a football match! For the sake of argument, the Betfair (100%) odds are 1.57 4.3 7.7. With the odds of 1.5, you would need to remove the Pinnacle juice. If that becomes 1.53 and the Exchange odds are 1.57 -2% commission (1.56) the differential is +3 pips. (1.56 - 1.53). However, I would suggest that the likelihood of such a big difference is rare. After all, the Betfair market makers are tracking Asia! As for waiting 5-10 minutes. Assuming it's still 0-0 and all the players were on the pitch the draw after 5 minutes would be around 4.15 and 4.0 after 10 minutes. Using ten minutes: The difference between 4.3 (23.26%) and 4.00 is 1.74%. Doing a balance, those opening odds of 1.57 would become 1.60 to 1.61. In short, the balance is correct, and i wouldn't buy into what others are trying to promote from a trading perspective! If you like in-play betting and can read the game - Take a look at this video ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-LUIl3dS5kNE.html&t - It explains how you can take advantage of what you are witnessing before bookmakers start reacting to what's happening in the game!
@@BettingAnalyst thanks for your reply, I have just one more question. Regarding in play betting. If your keeping an eye on a market and you find a bet on pinnacle prices at 1.83 and then look at the exchanges and at exactly the same time its prices at 2 do you have a value bet? I understand you would need to remove the juice and commission. But still after that would it count as a positive ev bet? Thanks in advance
The same answer! - there were 5/10 minutes for something positive to happen! Any increase in the odds is because of the decreasing time factor. The value is in relation to when the bet was placed.
The Kelly Criterion is based on stake optimisation, but it doesn't take into consideration other factors. For example, Betting is not a one size fits all, such as small leagues/sports = low limits - Bigger sport the opposite. Furthermore, an individual's specific investing constraints is something else, while more attention needs to be paid to the actual edge.
@@bmcsma417 - This is the method many value betting software companies suggest. Personally, I would suggest level stakes based on EV. While i can't be specific, something like factor 1 on 2-5%, 2 on 5-10%, 3 on 10% plus - Times the factor with a number that you are comfortable with (lets say you want to average 20 quid stakes), then 10-20-30! After a month, you could take stock, and raise the base rate to represent your new balance.
-newbie here- Does anybody know any US-based local sports bookie agent I could call on the phone and place a bet on NFL / NBA once in a while? Ideally that accepts cash / crypto Any tip I would truly appreciate it Thank you'all
60% of our bets are in-play! However, once a game/match starts, the dynamics change! If you know what you are doing, in-play offers an even greater opportunity.
@@davidforde1261 With in-play betting, 95% of the bookies will be taking a ''odds feed'' from the likes of Betradar. Because it's a fast-moving market, these odds are generated based on Data at hand (as the game unfolds) and expectations (pre match). I did a video on in-play football, this is the ideal system to learn because those with a good reading of the game can easily take advantage! ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-LUIl3dS5kNE.html&t
We are talking about value betting, not opinion betting. Just for info, 50*50 = 2500 so it's not 5000. Value betting means spreading liabilities, and not going hari-kari. One method is professional, the other ''all-in''. How you bet is upto you. If you don't see the logic behind Value betting, you will always be a gambler!
