When Layoffs are made during a contraction of our economy, it would be heartening to see government included. When was the last time governments lay off workers
There's a lot of dinosaurs in government. Very few young people compared to the private sector. A hiring freeze alone leads to a shrinking number of government workers. But yeah they haven't announced that yet. The mandates did a good job of voluntary firings.
@@derekseifert7 thanks. Good to know. The hiring of nearly 87k IRS employees is absurd. Plus EPA and other agencies are expanding. The passing of the omnibus bill likely insures the expansion of the Federal Government
Mr. Jakobsen is one of the best. He arrives at his own conclusions and doesn't simply sing from the same hymn book that so many on the Street seem to share. That's not to say he's always right. He isn't. No one is. But at least he provides an informed, well reasoned alternative perspective.
You should see the number of EV charging stations that have been installed in supermarket parking lots in Athens, Greece! How many Greeks can afford EVs, I would like to know!
Great interview Adam. The contrarian no recession call really made my mind exercise more than it has been lately. I don't know that I can agree but I loved the delivery of thought.
After he mentioned green energy, CO2, "fusion energy has made significant progress", "tight labor market", "no recession" I stopped watching. This man sounds like Klaus Schwab and WEF. He is spreading the agenda.
Fed hiking into yield curve (never fails to signal a recession). Housing tanking. Real wages falling. Europe is a self created disaster which cannot turn on a dime. Biggest real estate bubble in history has finally gone pop in China. World oil production is stuck or even declining pending new investment which will take years of huge investments and even that may not be enough. Mean global debt levels are crippling. Populations in richest countries are top heavy in unproductive elderly people. Fed says it wants lower employment to depress demand and thus strangle inflation. Yep, recession. One has to be blind, deaf and dumb not to detect it heading our way like a runaway freight train.
wrong by default. weve already had one, and maybe still is in it i havent checked the stats... everyone was in agreement with that and laughed at the gaslighting administration for changing the accepted definition... dont know when everyone forgot about that but the way so many talk about it these days its like it never happened
All the economic rhetoric and the statistical analysis tools are based on one fundamental assumption: ‘’Human society behaviours stay the same’’. ‘’History repeats itself’’. Since 2020, the world has witnessed exceptional events. Human society is changing. The world economy is changing. I believe in the ability of mankind to evolve in order to overcome obstacles. One lesson from history: ‘’Necessity is the mother of invention’’.
Mr Sten needs to visit my small business and analyze the customer invoice count drop, foot traffic in store drop, sales closures per customer engaged drop, I could go on, but small business in America of course has higher $$$$, but the dollars are not leveraging the rising costs and lower customer count.
Full employment is a mirage, we have record low labor force participation in the US already, and now companies like Amazon are laying off record amount of employees, how many of those layoffs will return to the labor market?
Full employment at the wage being offered is a mirage. The wage has to float at market rates to reach a natural equilibrium. When you are shifting the supply curve and forcing a wage outcome full employment is an illusion. Cause a recession to force lower demand and push wages down only leads to lower demand.
This people not working thingbis confusing... the only people I know not working due to lay offs are union guys who work construction in NY. The builders fire the skilled professionals and hire illegal aliens at half the price. They do shoddy work but the builders don't care. And NYC is a 100% lawless town so no one gets I trouble. Then they bring the union guys back at the end to fix the mistakes the illegals made. American bosses are literally out to screw the American workers. That's why they're flooding the country with them-- all of whom will be supported by the American taxpayer. Our society has become sick. But in a place like NYC, only the working class cares. Every cab driver loves Trump. However, the college educated moron, sell out class who votes will always keep voting Democrat.
@@carolyna.869 "This people not working thing is confusing" This people are not working, at the price being offered, thing, is a little less confusing. It is still complicated. There is a graph available. You can google it using "productivity vs wages". It shows the point where things went terribly wrong. It is a graphical representation of the sickness you are referring to. This is a graph of worker productivity/value added by the American worker. In the period 1948 to 1973 productivity was gaining at a rate of 96.7%. In the same period, hourly compensation rose 91.3%. In the period 1973 to 2014 productivity was gaining at a rate of 72.2%. In the same period, hourly compensation in the same period only rose 9.2%. The trend continues to present time. The profits provided by the American worker sky rocked due mainly to the computer revolution, but wages remained flat and wealth accumulated at the top is not trickling down. The free market for labor somehow lost its competitive nature. So, what changed? Why the trickle down golden showers? Supply side economics maybe? IMNSHO
At 39 minutes, the guest talks about how he doesn't think there's going to be a recession. Adam said that he was an outlier. I actually really like to hear the outliers, because I think it's important to have a balanced approach, and hear arguments on both sides
I agree. The previous guest, Steve Rubino, was seeing a possible crack-up boom so the 2 interviews together represent the extremes. Other financial media all sound the same after a while. It's as though they talk and talk until they are agreeing.
Don’t forget he works for an investment platform. If he actually thought the smartest thing to do right now was to sit in cash, there is no way he’d say it because he’s company would lose money.
Yeah, he's quite wrong about the environmental issues. Higher CO2 levels have caused 15% more of the earth's land mass to become green. Arid and semi-arid land is becoming fertile, as higher CO2 levels mean that plants need much less water to grow. Crop yields have gone up. For plant life, more CO2 is unequivocally a good thing. So much crap is being spread by the climate alarmists.
I appreciate highly the views and assessments of Steen Jakobsen! Adam, good questions, but could you please shorten/concentrate a little bit your questions? Thanks😉
No recession in 2023? Steen shook me. Sometimes the contrarian is right. When the emergency lights flash, the FED always prints. Always. Haha! Great show. A must view Adam.
So wrong on the Ukraine war... engineered for years and induced by the US for mainly economical reasons. Any macro view that does not address the part the military-industrial complex occupies in the US "real" economy (and its feeding exclusively on public funding) is flawed.
Love Steve Jacobson. He's level headed, positive and very erudite. Something, though, when he questioned the wisdom of EVs fuel usage on charging, I do think the combustion engine burning and the oil based charging has differences, maybe large ones. There are hydrogen charging and storage sources coming online for the EV access and city access very soon, already used in Germany for fuel cells in buses. As well, China and Germany have a thin nano particle battery which has faster charging and much much lighter weight than lead or saline batteries. Can't wait for these innovations!
6% nominal return means basically 2% real return IF inflation cooperates and returns to 4%. If not - flat. Tip: Wait for the I-Bond rate in May to see what the Real inflation numbers are going forward. Been pretty spot on this past year. Treasury Dept has called it correctly in comparison, earlier than everyone else.
He said 70% of mortgages are fixed rates. That means 30% are adjustable rate mortgages. Aka variable rates. How is this not 2008 all over again. According to him 2008 was not a recession then either.
He lost me at that point. He is so wrong about what is going to occur in housing. Already occurring actually. Your Exact point. Then he laughs off a 20% drop off a “400 %” increase. What the hell is he talking about? Smart guy. Totally clueless about the housing market.
Lost me when he talked about vertical farming being in the future, vertical farming is a pipedream. It doesn't work because the input costs for facilities, water, and electricity faaaaar exceed that of just working a field. The solution is to return suburbs to farmland, not force farmers further to the fringes
He has a few points. Good ones. But didn't mention the labour participation rate? That is quite important! The fed are tightening the money supply but Washington has committed more spending? Doesn't make sense. Are they really tightening? Or as in previous years the fed printed money gave it to banks which inflated assets. It didn't reach the wider economy, create jobs or grow food or make anything! Maybe Washington are directly doing this by the infrastructure spending? It's about an extra $trillion every year of office!!!
But he is just looking at US employment figures, which is looked at in detail shows that the new jobs are mostly part-time and people that already have a job are taking two jobs.
I wholeheartedly agree with the author. It is time to invest in the real economy like producing tomatoes, potatoes etc… Technology can help but should only be a secondary role, not a primary. If you buy something with real dollars you should get a real products, not the things in the meta world.
"I am looking for the next policy response" - policy responses are always behind the curve. "Real GDP growth of 3% easily" - I'm just flabbergasted. I can't see this happening unless politicians mail out more checks financed by even deeper debt while sending inflation surging again. I think this is unlikely. How would the bond markets react?
Me thinketh I remember this guest from his last conversation., great analysis from someone working for a well established large organization with .......checks and balances!@!?😉🙂
I like Steen Jakobsen realistic presentation, specially his statement related to the ability of man to overcome obstacles! It is so easy these days to take the persona of the knights of the apocalypse. It takes courage and high self esteem to be a contrarian! One lesson from history: Necessity is the mother of invention. 😀😃😄😊
Very informative interview. Like Stein's macro outlook and approaching the idea of recession from a different angle. He makes a ot of sense and gives me hope about a revival of the real economy, which would solve so many social ills. Am in total agreement with him about de-globalization being the main theme going forward. Thank you Adam. You're helping a lot of people!🙂😊
What he is missing is that the highest growth opportunities has been the "non-real" economy. This of Uber that can run a huge money making business with a few good programmers
As your other guests have fostered - housing is complicate and detailed by the 3 critical factors - Location, Location, Location! The quantity of 30 yr mortgages at sub 3% will cause chaotic pricing action. And who is holding the bulk of those low rate mortgages ;)
Define "Quality" - Sounds like belief in return to value investing which is warming to my heart. "Free" money/capital suggests too much credit at low risk or paraphrasing James Grant - zero return risk
He’s wrong about the reduction of co2. Efficiency of energy will happen as demand for performance will naturally improve emission. In the long run that how it is really works and stays. Windmills will be a thing if the past.
Steen you have a 100 year investment containing 8% crypto. Crypto is down, do I rebalance and buy more crypto or are there other Ponzi scheme I can select instead?
I like this guy, he doesn't bullshit around or dance around anything. Loved hearing him talk about a "housing crisis" in the US and keeping it real. That's EXACTLY why i watch this and a couple of other channels. Nice work.
Getting annoyed. Europe has little oil. Even with Norway. Does anyone recognise all the derivatives of oil or are we just hoping we can replace this using plants? Europe imports so much from the world as it divested over 30 years. To decouple will take the same! Plus the energy required. Nuclear material, like oil, gas, tungsten & lithium is elsewhere. What about food supply as Europe steadily rids itself of nitrogen fertilisers? I get the feeling it has completely lost its way. Hence the debts and inflation that is higher than the US.
I’m not convinced that the fed doesn’t desire the economy to tank, and “force” them to lower rates and resume quantitative easing. They need inflation because it’s the only way to cheapen the debt. They know they won’t be able to pay it off in current dollars so they need dollars to cheapen. As much as I hate that solution, I’m not sure I wouldn’t do the same thing if I were put in Powell’s shoes. Dollars are a lousy place to be, buy gold and silver.
Such repellent people. The Baby Boomers always had the intention to splurge on themselves and screw future generations. They kick the can down the road until.they kick the bucket. The main goal is to destroy the system and "start fresh" with digital currency which can be controlled and turned on and off. The WEF has even done videos on what the future will be like-- where you only get a modest quota for meat, so if you've already bought meat this week, your digital currency simply won't work. The government has been working a psy op on the new age community similar to the way they did with Q Annon. The government was behind Q Anon but the followers thought it was a leaker/insider blowing the whistle. Those same people are selling "erasing debt" with the "new system " and how amazing it will all be. But it's just to get people to accept full digital currency. A friend just returned from India. He was literally UNABLE to use rupees anywhere. No one in Bangalore uses cash-- everything is digital. Seeing as half the country showed its belly in submission and stayed in like a slave during "the pandemic" I think we know the masses will accept this shift as well. Americans ain't made like they used to!
@@carolyna.869 There’s some truth to that, but the boomers certainly aren’t a United mass. I think there’s a much more fragmented movement sprawling along especially among those who wish to control the rest of us. The resistance will be much stronger than you think, unless it goes so slowly that the milli Ian’s are the oldest working generation, in which case I’m not hopeful of any resistance.
He made some funny points. The younger generation going vegan isn’t solving really big problems with that. Haha he’s right. But even if we go 100% nuclear to really optimize energy usage we still will Have to use fossil fuels like gas or natural gas for cars or semi trucks etc. I have a friend that drives a box truck using natural gas and it works. You got to hit the few refueling stations, but an electric semi would be a joke. From the time of recharging perspective to the massive amount of additional mines to make the batteries that may or may not be recycled. And he said we need to use less carbon but tech is becoming more strategic to nations. Like okay. It just seems everyone thinks carbon is bad when maybe it’s not. And let’s assume carbon is bad. What prevents innovation from happening that would make coal Power plants to emit zero carbon from the stacks? Seems to be the best thing would have been for the UN to push nuclear power but like when Sri Lanka fell they didn’t offer to build a nuclear Power plant for free or cheap. The BRICs should leave the imf etc. the imf treats the west different from the third world. The imf helping Argentina or Mexico etc but telling Argentina to have interest rates a percent higher then inflation so like 51% or whatever and Mexico at 10% is a freaking hypocritical action compared to the imf watching the west having rates near zero last year. What a joke. The splitting of east and west probably is a good thing.
32:45 " you will see companies taking more market share, not based on having more *eye-balls*... but *having more balls* todo what is needed to create a better product" :) " hilarious, Adam also LOL ! ps: great interview.. I agree "real economy" over the virtual! but my call, recession in 2023 H2!
BRICS is an acronym for five leading emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. The first four were initially grouped as "BRIC" (or "the BRICs") in 2001 by Goldman Sachs economist Jim O'Neill, who coined the term to describe fast-growing economies that would collectively dominate the global economy by 2050; South Africa was added in 2010. The BRICS have a combined area of 39,746,220 km (15,346,100 sq mi) and an estimated total population of about 3.21 billion, or about 26.7% of the world's land surface and 41.5% of the global population. Brazil, Russia, India, and China are among the world's ten largest countries by population, area, and GDP, and are widely considered to be current or emerging superpowers. The west has undermined itself by overpaying labor, growing government, having a consumer import driven economy & exporting their manufacturing. Good grief.
This is a no-brainer. Like the space race, between the USSR and USA, of the 1950s, there is another race underway. BRICS+ v. US+, or Eastern Alliance v. Western Alliance is the race for monetary and energy independence of the East (from the West), or retained hegemony by the West. BRICS+ cards are all on the table with regard to their commodities-backed currency and unparalleled acquisition of gold. But for some reason the US+ counter isn't so clear in the minds of market sector specialists. The Federal Reserve Bank roll-out of the 12 week CBDC pilot program in November, 2022, gives us a hint to their actions of overtightening the economy with record FFR hikes: it seem when one adds it up, if the Fed breaks the system then they can quickly transition to CBDC as the redenomination of US currency with likely full adoption. Never let a good crisis go to waste.
@@DavidontheBayou like with other redenomination of failed currency the only real winners are holders of debt, which gets devalued with old currency it is denominated in. And yes, all assets get revalued in new currency, so we could finally see $50oz silver, but only because gold is revalued at $1,000oz - which would be theft indeed. Of course the main differences of CBDC is its keystroke flexibility: when rolled out it can be done at a positive rate of exchange to encourage rapid adoption (1.25:1) for the government dependent; (1.1:1) for the middle class and likely graduated for the upper-middle to bottom-upper (1:1, 1:0.75, 1:0.5, etc). There also can be a time window associated so to punish those who won't make the exchange so lose their wealth. Once adopted the opposite is true; the Fed can deposit our CBDC into our digital wallets with a negative interest rate so it gradually diminishes, or just put an expiration date on our currency. This prevents savings, guarantees spending, which ensures the velocity of money and an economy moving forward. They'll be able to expand and contract the money supply at will and essentially be imposing taxation as needed. 2023 will set the stage.
@@fraa888grindr6 Thank you for your thoughtful response. I think what you stated is within the realm of possibility… Then the question becomes, what will the American people do about it? After observing the submissiveness of people during 2020 lockdowns and mandatory VAXes… I don’t have a lot of hope that the American people will say no to CBDC… Unfortunately.
@@DavidontheBayou indeed. Too little knowledge of US and world history; our US Constitution, fundamental economics, etc, etc, etc and too much trust in governments as a result which can only go one way on our present course. A 180 turn would require a massive commitment and level of sacrifice, on behalf of the average American, that few living now can even grasp - my grandparents were in their early 20s in the 29 Crash and my parents were born in the Depression; they were a whole 'nother breed of people. This is a crisis is global. Though there is a clear geopolitical bifurcation taking place on the surface, beneath the globe is being united as all central banks will have CBDCs and be linked together. We can view Russia or China as authoritarian - which they are - however, US English speaking allies like Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the UK have all taken radical authoritarian steps to disarm their populations over the last 5-10 years, along with many examples of suppression of speech and seizure of private property. Our allies look more and more like our enemies. Without revolution, capitulation will certainly lead us into slavery.
Love the channel but if I may a bit of feedback. U gotta get to the question faster and cut out the uhs and ums and fillers. Like yah gotta tighten up the question asking talk track cut out like 90% of the fluff
That Steen Jacobsen is 1) the chief intelligence officer of Saxo Bank and 2) said Chinese and Russian propaganda "...at least try to be a little bit honest" is frightening, in so far as he's not very well educated on such an important matter. Steen might be the CIO, but he certainly doesn't live in this region, or speak Russian. If he did, he would know what we all know here in eastern Europe, and that's that nobody matches Russian propaganda in terms of its ubiquity, insidiousness and dishonesty.
The correct policy was to 1) Raise tax to slow a white hot economy 2) Reduce all spending including overseas 3) Pay down our debt There is no other correct policy and now I fear it is too late for all of us.
Los Angeles County, California USA 🇺🇸 99 Cent Only Store 18 count grade AA eggs 🥚 today priced at $9.99. Today's date is January 4, 2023. Last week, these eggs were priced at $7.99. That's a $2 jump in a week!
Our proxy war against Russia in the Ukraine: the worst mal-investment of all; and, historically, war expense is the most common cause of currency devaluation / coin debasement
Not only money down the toilet, but it is ending the USD monopoly as reserve currency, shattering the global free trade paradigm we spent nearly a half century constructing, disillusioning the western public when everyone finally figures out how egregiously we have been lied to by politicians and media who are now joined at the hip, and killing our reputation as the unbeatable global hyperpower. Consequences of this war will be felt for years to come.
If you want your comment to be taken seriously, you could learn the actual name for the country you're speaking about. Which would be "Ukraine," since the name was changed over 30 years ago. In any case, the US is not sending Ukraine any significant amount of cash, but rather old weapons which were in storage, with the addition of a minor amount of newer weapons and significant humanitarian aid. Don't worry: nobody is taking your hard earned tax dollars and sending them to a checking account at 'the Bank of Ukraine.' The US dollar isn't becoming debased by the US government sending weapons from storage, a few HIMARS and some wool blankets to the Ukrainians.
US should trade with all and stay out of foreign entanglements ! But no we have “ special interests” wagging the dog. Two wings of the same ugly bird. They have bought votes and control aka throttle the Growth of most of the economies. Endless wars and redistribution of wealth.
All the economic rhetoric and the statistical analysis tools are based on one fundamental assumption: ‘’Human society behaviours stay the same’’. ‘’History repeats itself’’. Since 2020, the world has witnessed exceptional events. Human society is changing. The world economy is changing. I believe in the ability of mankind to evolve in order to overcome obstacles. One lesson from history: ‘’Necessity is the mother of invention’’.
Interesting interview. However, you can have a recession right after a strong job market. The job market was strong in 2007, and the great recession started in Dec 2007. The job market was strong all throughout 2000, and the tech recession started in March 2001. So yeah, the job market in the US had decent strength now. We could, and probably will, have a recession starting in the first half of this year anyway. Doesn’t mean it will be a crazy bad recession, but the economy is clearly slowing down. Especially in the tech and finance sectors.
I don’t know about this guest. Especially with him stating that iPhones are getting bigger because the tech needed to run them can’t keep up with the apps? I have a STEM background and don’t feel he is showing mastery of what he’s talking about.
The even more "stupid policy" is free energy. Free energy will not release productivity - it will release waste. You only have to look at the recent government subsidies on "green" energy to see that. Also, he bemoans the new generations ambition but what will this generation do if they also get their energy for free?? We had free money for a more than decade and look where that got us. This guy needs to sharpen his thesis.
Hey folks .. I am facing a mortgage renewal. Bad timing. I have always chosen 5 yr fixed but am considering a variable which can be converted into a fixed at no penalty during the 5 yr term. Both rates are very competitive (bank must like us) but the 5 yr fixed is 50% higher than our current rate so that will eat into the budget. Variable is higher still but it feels wrong to lock in for 5 years fixed. I need to choose in the next few days .. it renews in 2 weeks and I am tying myself in knots considering the possibilities. Any thoughts would be much appreciated. My crystal ball isn't working!!
I don't imagine rates are going that much higher, why not take the gamble on a variable and then hope to lock in if we see a slide in the economy and interest rates in the next year or so. That'd be my play if I was renewing soon.
Rates can't stay high for long. The FED talks tough, but truth be told, higher rates bankrupts America faster. Once the housing market gets it's 25-35% haircut, the rush for refinancing can start because the FED will back off.
@@hoytstill3955 I believe that Toronto, the major Canadian city, has already seen real estate price declines of 27% in 2022. It's a nail biter! Thanks for your input.
The treasury has to in addition to the 2 trillion plus dollars of new debt roll over 7 trillion dollars of existing debt at higher interest rates and so do corporations and consumers with auto loans and credit card loans and personal loans and adjustable rate mortgages I think that is what impinges on economic growth
He's not 100% wrong, IMHO. However, to say productivity will increase from conforming to ESG fails to recognize that the motivation of finding solutions comes from profit & competition. ESG is not a completely terrible idea, but neither is communism...it works great at the family or church level, it just doesn't work in society; especially not in one that doesn't have a common set of values and morals. I think ESG, like communism will only lead to increased corruption. The motivations and rewards are wrong.
It is good to hear a different view. The fact that he is wrong about nearly everything is pretty comical. He had me mostly convinced until he dismissed the housing market. For a guy who makes his living analyzing macro, he clearly has never studied the 230 years of history of the US housing market. Regression to the long term mean always happens. Always. Institutional buyers are bailing. Blackrock and Blackstone have either limited or stopped withdrawals from their private client REITS. When you have him on a year from now he will have a lot of crow to eat.
