Runaway demand. The first few rounds of robots will be the cheapest they will ever be. As robots roll out to manufacturing, farming, and retail, the cost to deliver will go way down. This will make products available at a lower price to consumers. This leads to a lower cost of living. The only thing that isn't affected by this immediately is the robot manufacturer. The parts sourcing may see a small reduction, but not as much as the overall cost of living. It'll take some time for this to become apparent, but big companies with good analytics teams are probably already testing units for viability. The realization that the robots, relative to the market, are going to get expensive more quickly than everything else - it's gonna create an infinite demand for them for like 20 years.
I had a vision of two Optimus bots running a lemon aid stand but they ran out of cups, and lemons, and sugar. This dream makes me think we have bottlenecks we haven’t contemplated.
On a serious note , bot will make lot of money for Tesla . But doing simple calculations is not realistic n real world . In an ideal world yes . But not in a real world . Example today Tesla stock Shud been 800 but instead it's 180. Cuz shit happens .
My man still only thinking about humanoid robots on Earth when I have been thinking about them on Mars as well doing meaningful labor in the most dangerous place.
I watch your videos everyday. Sometimes (2 when you do 2) can't remember stopping the video wo coming back later to finish; until today. I'm 62, so go figure.
@@MrRobertBatchelor nah chill I was tripping out . This is the time I usually smoke right before bed and get my daily dose of Tesla news … last night was just off lol
@@jcassel61I stopped at 2:54 and had no clue of what this dumb game was or what he was saying. Gamers… musk can get away with this because he runs 8 companies and changing the world simultaneously. Not because he is a RU-vidr. Like the judge, stay in your lane, SMR.
It’s precisely at times like these that investors need to be on guard against the next certainty. You don’t have to act on every forecast. I will also suggest investors to get yourselves a financial-advisor that can provide you with entry and exit points on the shares/ETF you focus on.
Someone mentioned that trading cryptocurrencies is much more beneficial than holding them long-term, but I don't know who to seek advice from or who could trade for me
thats true VENTURING into the trading world without the help of a profesionals, trading and expecting profit is like turning water into wine you would need a miracle...
While stlll having to concentrate to ignore the explosions in the background. I'm watching/listening while working out in my home gym and I had to turn away from the screen. It was an experiment and, if SMR reads these comments, he'll see the result and not try it again. Worth a try once (only).
From $37K to $45K that's the minimum range of profit return every week I thinks it's not a bad one for me, now I have enough to pay bills and take care of my family.
Yes!!! That's exactly his name (Alex Robert) so many people have recommended highly about him and am I just starting with him from Brisbane Australia 🇦🇺
Steven, you ( and everyone else I've listened to on this subject )are neglecting a very significant factor when you try to calculate how many bots will be produced over how long a timeframe; Autonomous gigafactories that use bots to build bots. Lots of them. All things considered, I'd say your estimates are off by many years. We'll be neck-deep in bots within a single decade after the first autonomous gigafactory gets built.
Once he makes his gazillions through Tesla stock he’ll be playing games all day, using his AG-1 to give himself a massive, meaningful boost to his toilet activity
It's still funny to me to assume a 10% market share. It's like we're in the year 2000 and assuming Google will get 10% market share on search. AI scaling will leave potential competitors so far behind it's not even worth it for them to try, we're already seeing it with FSD.
Either you're just trolling, thinking (incorrectly) that you're funny or you're actually responding emotionally to the numbers and it seems your gut instinct says "No" because it's so much bigger than anything that happened before. What would you have thought back just before the internet took off and a prescient person told you what impact the internet would have on banking, business, the stock market, home entertainment right down to, say, porn magazine sales? autonomous bots will be way more impactful than even the internet was.
I am a little confused as to who is going to buy and pay for the robots. If companies replace their staff, then that is all good, the company has lower cost and better profits. But when 90% of companies have replaced their staff, which I guess is the goal if we are talking billions of robots, then almost no one has a job and no income, so the companies have no one to sell to, no one has any money. On a macro scale I don't see how this will work, unless there is some UBI scheme and redistribution or similar.
in that future, there will have to be a universal high-income system where the government starts an automation taxation. They will tax any companies that use humanoid bots a certain amount per bot... low enough that automation is still worth while for the company, but enough to matter. Then that money will fund the Universal income system and everyone gets paid a decent living wage from it. Everyone still has money to use to "vote" on the products they love by buying them, and this still incentivizes companies to produce excellent products, etc. The economy still keeps going, and everyone has a life of leisure, and or the freedom to find new ways to work. there will still be ways to earn more than the basic income. Certain professions like Content creators, music, writing, etc. will still be done by humans because people will still want that "human touch". We will be able to actually LIVE our lives instead of just working to exist until our death like we do now.
There will be some UBI scheme or similar. Many will rail against it but I think UBI will be added to with wealth accrued for beneficial activity. So AI would calculate our share of wealth depending on our work to maintain or improve all aspects of health, family, society and planet. This would help us be the best we can be, anyone who simply looked after themselves and their family would be quite 'rich' by today's standards. Hate it all you like, but we need goals and rewards to excel.
At some point it makes sense for governments to give up on taxing income and to have sales tax and consumption taxes and tariffs instead. That was actually the norm prior to 1913. Especially makes sense if goods are falling in price due to productivity, and your former taxpayers are mostly unemployed.
If the Tesla bots end up being that valuable, it seems like we will surpass the need for money, because all work will be automated. So it won’t much matter what our syock is worth at that point.
No, money only becomes unnecessary if NOTHING is scarce. There will still be scarce things in the world. Experiences, uniquely located real estate, the attention of beautiful women. For example, if you want to spend a week in a villa with a view of the sea at Marbella...that's a limited resource that must be rationed using money. If you want to own a historic apartment with a view of Prague Castle...you have to outbid the other buyers
If everyone is "rich" then all global tourist locations become hopelessly crowded so there will be access fees to limit the numbers. Even now people are paying $1000 for some concert tickets...expect that kind of thing for every interesting experience in a world full of people who don't need to work.
The global economy is “literally” 100 trillion a year, the entire robotics industry is “literally” 50 billion a year. Now we are to believe that Optimus is going to subsume the entire robotics market and indeed with Ryan’s numbers, the entire global economy in the next 10 years. Historians of the future will marvel at how dumb retail Tesla investors were.
I think your profit on the hardware is way over estimated, maybe at the beginning if they are first and best. But when you start getting to the numbers you are talking about the competition will get fierce. The profit will probably balance out somewhere around 8-12% at best, about 1/4th of your number. Same thing will happen with subscriptions but the profit will still be much higher. Software subscriptions will have various tiers for quantity, large purchasers will get large discounts for both hardware and software. Still huge and the potential to be multiples of the largest company that ever existed.
it doesn't matter if Tesla only makes $1000 profit on the humanoid hardware... they will likely be printing out tens or hundreds of millions of them! Besides, the software or leasing subs will be the biggest driver of humanoid profits. eventually, they could just give the bots away as they would be like employees earning a wage from other companies or individuals! No matter how you run the numbers, it gets super nutty and MASSIVE upside from this point forward for TSLA prices.
Sounds plausible but look at Apple as an example. People are willing to pay a premium on their hardware to get access to their ecosystem. It's network effect, not a commodity. If the software functionality available in the Optimus ecosystem is a long way ahead of competitors, and hardware costs are low relative to software, saving a few thousand on the hardware isn't worth it. Different if the software was platform independent.
Hey smr love the videos, daily watcher here. I love the change up from graphs and charts to just listening because I watch on my way to work everyday. Could you just make the gameplay a little quieter so it’s easier to hear you? Thanks
Available profit is dependent on ability to pay. There is only so much money to go around. At a time of high inflation and looming recession, it's hard to imagine any significant source of revenue. Think of revenue as a proportion of GDP.
I agree with possible sub on bot, but 1k a month is absurd. at that price only large scale company MIGHT buy. If am not mistaken Elon wants it to be affordable. there 40k+ car has $99 sub for fsd, why would a 20k bot be 1k sub
Some free functionality, small fees for extra domestic functions, large subscriptions for valuable commercial functions. If an advanced robot can replace a worker on $50k per year and do the job better, $2k per month is a bargain. Janitor functionality will be cheap. If a robot can handcarve reproduction antique furniture or help build a jet engine, what is that worth?
I felt the game was fine. Only issue was really the audio of attacking enemies if that can be turned down or off and have the rest of the audio or very quiet ambient sound / music.
In the long term, when major deflation happens, won’t that drive down the cost of bots? Bots will be making bot, and everything in the supply chain including the labor for extraction. So then the sales price will fall in terms of today’s dollars.
There are 1.5 bilion cars in the world right now. Imagine in the future 1 bilion of this cars can be autonomous. Imagine each autonomous car produce JUST 1000$ of value per year. That's 1 trillion $ in profit PER YEAR. And that's just car autonomy.
Chinese cars are now selling at half Tesla's price (e.g. BYD Dolphin $17k) What makes you think Tesla dominance of the market will allow a $10k profit on each Optimus sale? China is investing in AI/AGI just as heavily as the US.
I just think of it like Old School Runescape running bots around to farm whatever you needed and the devs would keep making the bots able to do more tasks and quests over time its going to be very similar for sure
I think over time bots will result in massive deflation. This is how I see it, - workers get replaced by bots, workers have no money to buy a bot - government taxes the work of bots in order to finance Universal Basic Income (UBI), which is sufficient only for basic living expenses - cost of goods and services produced by bot must be reduced to be affordable by people on UBI - as income generated by bots drops, the cost of the bots also drops Therefore you need to factor the reducing cost of bots and their income over time into the DCF model for Tesla.
Corporations will gladly pay that if it replaces a worker on $40k per year. You'd expect free base functionality for home domestic use...cleaning, gardening washing ironing etc then significant monthly subscriptions for commercial applications where it displaces paid human labour. Home use vs commercial use....we already price software differently.
You’re an exceptional mental chess player. Everyone here complaining about the game play sounds but that’s the point. Concentrate on the information and ignore the noise all around. Well done 👏 👏
I listen to you every day but today the background noise drove me nuts so I had to end it early. Maybe next time turn the game audio off? Just some feedback to help you out for the next one. Keep grinding 👍
I'm puzzled as to where the money will come from for Tesla to have such a huge income. Is there even that much money in the global financial system. How will people have an income of replaced by robots? How will they pay for their robots? Given the size of these numbers, we need to model out how the economy will function. I'm interested in your thoughts SMR, on the wider economic model that supports this Tesla revenue?
Great idea on hourly charge for robots instead of selling… $10 per hour, 20 hours per day = $200/day * 30 days = approximately $6,000 PER MONTH( $72,000 PER YEAR) $20/Hour ? 144,000/year times 1 billion bots = 144,000,000,000,000 (144 Trillion income per year… any PE ratio would be fine… lol) At 20, 30, 50%,market share, 👀 Cheers
My two part question is, can the earth provide all the materials en masse? What does the materials/ minerals value in the miners world look like over time from this?
This doesn't make any sense. Who is going to pay for a bot, and then pay 1000$/month? First of all, there's a money supply problem. But then there's the value problem. A car that you can drive is a piece of equipment worth buying. A car that drives itself is worth paying a subscription for. If you stop subscribing, you can still drive it yourself. A humanoid robot is worthless without the 'self driving' software. You can either sell it subscription, or sell it as hardware.
