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The AI Bubble No One Wants to Talk About (Not Even ChatGPT) 

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OpenAI created a global sensation when they launched ChatGPT in November 2022. The AI chatbot hit 100 million active users just two months after launch, making it the fastest growing consumer application in history. Since then, generative AI has gotten everyone buzzed on the idea that computers will replace human creativity.
The AI arms race is heating up and what used to be a slow and steady march to ensure safe and responsible AI development, is now turning into a sprint. Microsoft is teaming up with OpenAI to resuscitate Bing from its 14-year long coma. Google issued an internal "code red" and announced Bard, which impressed absolutely no one and instead wiped off $100 billion dollars from Alphabet's market cap.
Generative AI is incredibly impressive with promising societal implications, but the hype cycle is already getting out of hand. And a lot of people are about to get burned. In this video, I explore why generative AI is the next bubble.
- ABOUT PROBABLY SOMETHING -
Hey, I'm Kunal. I'm a Swedish founder in NYC and ex-investment banker (Lazard M&A). You can think of this as my personal business blog, but in video format.
I create videos about finance, business strategy, M&A and mental models to help me better understand our complex business world. Through my work, I've mostly covered tech, media, healthcare, sports and holdcos so those are naturally the topics I gravitate towards.
My goal is to constantly challenge myself to become a better business operator, investor and thinker by studying world class founders, financiers and investors. I hope this channel will help you do the same.
Just sharing what I'm learning along the way and documenting my journey - nothing on here should be considered financial advice.
Feel free to reach out: kun.chauh@gmail.com
-Kunal Chauhan

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20 фев 2023

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Комментарии : 50   
@juleslondon
@juleslondon Год назад
My theory on asset bubbles or I guess in this case "trend bubbles", is that by the time everybody is talking about it we are already passed the half way point of the bubble. Which means there is some room to go but it already feels quite uncomfortable to participate in it because of the risk of the bubble deflating quickly (no one can time the end of a bubble). Case in point: Nvidia. A great AI play, perhaps even the greatest. However if you start investing in it only now you have already missed the 170%, AI-related, increase in the stock of the past four months and looking at a company valued at $600 billion! So now the play is to hope that the AI hype become even greater and that other investors who are late to the AI party will buy the stock at these already huge valuations and push it to even greater valuations! Tough call
@probsomething
@probsomething Год назад
Good point. Nvidia seems well-positioned to benefit from AI tailwinds in the near and long term. As for what the stock does during that time, tough to know
@spazeit
@spazeit Год назад
Broooo your channel is growing so much
@probsomething
@probsomething Год назад
Slowly, but surely
@elschaft4768
@elschaft4768 Год назад
Great content like usual. 🤝🏾
@probsomething
@probsomething Год назад
Happy to hear it, thanks for the support!
@luskira
@luskira Год назад
Awesome video mate.
@probsomething
@probsomething Год назад
Thanks man, appreciate that!
@grahamtheturtle6126
@grahamtheturtle6126 Год назад
Very interesting video that brings up some great points, will be very entertaining to see how this AI “bubble” will play out
@probsomething
@probsomething Год назад
Glad you enjoyed it!
@FocusedAmbience
@FocusedAmbience Год назад
THIS IS NOT a good video. you need to understand that startup that change the owrld always lose money in the beginning. please do more research.
@FocusedAmbience
@FocusedAmbience Год назад
@@probsomething Do a ton more research
@probsomething
@probsomething Год назад
@@FocusedAmbience Wow I had no idea that early-stage startups are prone to negative cash flow
@anttam117
@anttam117 Год назад
Bubbles are not complicated to spot. Just notice all the people riding the hype around anything and there you have it... a nice bubble ready to burst.
@yillalbertoterrero
@yillalbertoterrero 11 месяцев назад
Good video, don't let it get to your head.
@Juan-Blasquez
@Juan-Blasquez Год назад
Great video
@probsomething
@probsomething Год назад
Thanks man!
@whittedmedia
@whittedmedia Год назад
Bro I respect your take on AI over everyone else
@probsomething
@probsomething Год назад
Appreciate that, but I don't know nearly as much as I should
@NoahProse
@NoahProse Год назад
Great video as always
@probsomething
@probsomething Год назад
Thanks my man!
@MajorBorris
@MajorBorris Год назад
Don't forget, chat GPT doesn't know anything after 2021. So objectivity about current events probably isn't the issue.
@probsomething
@probsomething Год назад
Good point
@yusuf4433
@yusuf4433 Год назад
nah this is hardly a bubble. Much as it is, the hype surrounding AI and money flowing in right now is not nearly as much or at least as distributed as that of Web 3.0
@umarkocer
@umarkocer Год назад
Just like how electricity changed the world by powering homes, businesses, and industries, AI has the potential to revolutionize the way we live, work, and interact with the world. AI is already being used in numerous industries, from healthcare to finance, and its applications are only expected to grow. The technology is constantly evolving, and its ability to learn and adapt will only increase as we continue to develop more advanced algorithms and processing power. In the same way that electricity became essential to modern life, AI is poised to become an integral part of our lives. Therefore, just as electricity was not a bubble but a transformative technology, AI is also not a bubble but a transformative technology that will have a significant impact on society.
@probsomething
@probsomething Год назад
Excellent point! I'm by no means trying to argue that AI as a whole is worthless, but simply that the current generative AI hype will lead to a temporary asset bubble. A short-term bubble and transformative innovation aren't mutually exclusive
@TF2Starlight
@TF2Starlight Год назад
i disagree, chatgpt makes my coding work so much better, and my ability to learn has greatly increased. It is only getting better and is only 1% as powerful as gpt4. I and many others will have this around my pocket 24/7 and will use this as an extension of the brain. Also, debugging with chatgpt in my ap comp sci class makes coding a cakewalk, my friends would spend hours debugging, and I'm here pasting the code in chatgpt and asking why i screwed up so i don't make the mistake again. The difference between ai and metaverse, for example, is that ai is useful in every singe field of work
@probsomething
@probsomething Год назад
100% - ChatGPT is an incredibly powerful tool
@leonardomangano6861
@leonardomangano6861 Год назад
You don't know how to code, that is the reason
@zenchiassassin283
@zenchiassassin283 Год назад
Just to make a contrast to his answer. I used it a few times, sometimes works great, sometimes horrible (I'm a computer science student in master). I barely use it in general and don't use it at all for debugging or doing homework as most of the time, it gives contradictions and crappy things that I take more time to fix than not (in the sense that I try to verify what I already did but chatgpt gives poor answers)
@TF2Starlight
@TF2Starlight Год назад
@Zenchiassassin because of how new it is, i see it as seeing a 1 year old jog on 2 feet, but it jogs weirdly and people say it will never jog because it jogged like that. Maybe in the next few years, it will be capable of running marathons, who knows!
@phoearwenien4355
@phoearwenien4355 Год назад
@@TF2Starlight Do you even know how ChatGTP works? It doesn't reference things, but generates most probalistic answer, even if that answer is untrue. There's no room to make it better, if that's not even a feature.
@myemodiaries901
@myemodiaries901 Год назад
I disagree. AI will continue to get bigger
@probsomething
@probsomething Год назад
I agree, I never said it wouldn’t
@EricCRO
@EricCRO Год назад
You are totally off, crypto was a ponzi, these are model files that will eventually be open source. This whole video is deranged and makes no sense; the whole frame is wrong
@probsomething
@probsomething Год назад
Was the internet a ponzi too?
@luskira
@luskira Год назад
@@probsomething Hahaha I hope you are not taking Eric Cartman seriously
@probsomething
@probsomething Год назад
Haha all good, always curious to hear opposing views
@EricCRO
@EricCRO Год назад
@@probsomething don't compare the internet to currency, currency has origins from the federal reserve, currency does not equal internet. Currency can be viewed in many different perspective, but the reserve currency is the US Dollar and the US keeps this fiat in power through power (war, resources, etc.) and being able to be a reserve currency allows us to print money out of thin air and make an inflationary system because gold bugs don't understand that there are limits. The failure case with gold and most static currency systems is that most people (rich) will accumulate the majority and just have the rest work for maintaining the system, however other groups can attack those systems if they invent a better system, which the US did and this is also why Britain was successful too. Nontheless, read the history of money and central banking and banking itself, it will show you the comparisons of a network information system (internet, html pages are documents, google crawls documents and makes a way to find documents, websites are dynamic documents) whereas currency is not a networked system itself. Also remember, Ethereum is centralized and bitcoin developers are a choke point as well where they snuck in an update when they found Bitcoin had a bug in the code that could print a lot of coins but this wasn't shared, so yes, they are centralized currency systems lying to be decentralized. Use your own critical thinking, this isn't an IQ problem, its a problem of not thinking from first principles, think from first principles of money itself is and you'll understand that these are not comparable. Also, the fact bitcoin is tracked in terms of USD shows you that USD is what matters, and that if you are in the US, it is vital to make sure the currency stays the main currency otherwise the US way of living is gone where we could print our way out of many problems.
@eyoo369
@eyoo369 Год назад
How is crypto a ponzu when governments are already planning to use digital coins? This will only skyrocket the use of crypto. Also if you’ve followed anything from the CEO of OpenAI.. he believes open sourcing AI is dangerous. Big Tech has no interest in open source and will do everything to destroy the open source models
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