The Battle For Humanity Begins | Game 1 (Diplomacy Commentary)

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The battle for humanity begins! Join Meme and Ezio as they document Meme's journey through the Meta AI Tournament, a 100 game Gunboat Diplomacy event in which players were challenged to defeat Facebook AI Research's new Diplomacy bot.
This tournament uses Sum of Squares Scoring, in which a player's final score is equal to (SC_count^2) / (sum of all players (SC_count^2)) . This means you get a higher score for having more centers, and for the opposition being more divided - you need to grow your own country without letting anyone else get too big to maximise it. Solos (18-center victories) are still worth 100% of the possible points.
Diplomacy is a negotiation-based board game set during World War One. 7 players each control one great power (England, France, Germany, Austria, Italy, Russia, and Turkey) and fight for control of Europe, using their diplomatic skill to make covert deals with one another and to backstab their friends.

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Опубликовано:

4 фев 2022

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Комментарии : 25

@DiploStrats 2 года назад

I completely forgot to edit in the tournament score graph, so here you go! Standings prior to this game: i.gyazo.com/94bfded3a0d15146de21486c086ec4fd.png The standings after this game will be in a reply to this comment, since they're obviously spoilers for the video.

@DiploStrats 2 года назад

Standings after this game: i.gyazo.com/99d3bf5ae6340ac93deda8c517bd6648.png

@logansmith2703 2 года назад

Ezio is too good at guessing bots

@andriusgimbutas3723 2 года назад

Good job fellow human 👍 Showed that bot it's place, by eliminating it first💪

@AnglosArentHuman 2 года назад

And just when I thought my RU-vid subscription box was gonna be all trash this week. Need to be places today, but guess I know what I'm doing tomorrow morning.

@oliviapg 2 года назад

Ezio guessing the bot immediately yet again was funnier than it had any right to be. Great commentary!

@Cteabis 2 года назад

It’s great to have a new video. I’ve missed these and hearing you two doing your analysis

@someknave 2 года назад

Being a maths geek i had to comment when you started to comment on the average year that the game will end assuming no one solo victories. For the purpose of this analysis i will ignore the impact of chance of a solo victory before a given year but in practice that would affect the chance of the game being triggered by this mechanism. There are three main concepts of average that you guys are getting confused between, at one point you mentioned the yeast that the game is most likely to end in, this is the mode and is 1908 20% of games will end this year 16% of games end. In 1909 and by 1912 when the rate increases only around 41% of games are still going so about 16.4% of games end in 1912. The median of the distribution is the year where 50% of the games will have ended by after 1910 48.8% of games will have ended, so that means technically 1911 is the median, although it's very close to being 1910. What most people mean by average is the mean though and that is 1910.976, very close to 1911. Usually these 3 concepts of average are similar to each other but in skewed distributions like this they can be very different to each other.

@DiploStrats 2 года назад

Thanks! I think I used to know this but it's been far too long since I did any statistics :D

@bcpravel 2 года назад

This is such a great idea for a series. Thanks for covering this!

@Z1ncanTungsten 2 года назад

This is an amazing channel please keep making videos! I love y'all

@cheesycheese7050 2 года назад

Always a good day to see another upload from you guys! Ezio's voice reminds me of a good friend who I used to play Diplomacy with.

@thegoosh6469 2 года назад

"Used to play Diplomacy with" is a common theme, isn't it?

@logansmith2703 2 года назад

Ooh a tournament. Neat.

@jtodd8102 2 года назад

Great video. You guys provide excellent commentary. In Fall 1908, your fleet Tys could have supported fleet Naples to Rome. You then could have seized Naples with fleet Ionian and continued to take Venice with the original move order set. This would have given you an earlier supply center/unit.

@DiploStrats 2 года назад

That would have been a great move, especially given the orders that were entered by Austria/Italy. The problem with it is it means the orderset as a whole is massively dependent on Italy going to Rome - if Italy just holds for that turn, and Austria supports Venice to hold with Rome, then Ion-Nap and Tri-Ven both bounce and you end up getting nothing at all in Italy. I did consider a very similar orderset (Tri-Ven with Adr support, Ion-Nap with TyS support) which also takes both Nap/Ven if Italy enters Ven-Rom, and guarantees at least one if not, since Rome can only support one of the two - but ultimately I felt like getting the army into Ven and covering Apu was more important than taking Nap immediately.

@KillMePlease680 2 года назад

Ezio's a god with these bot guesses

@RugnirSvenstarr Год назад

Awesome game great solo

@Hobbit823 2 года назад

The one thing I'm missing here is the center count under the map throughout the game. Otherwise, great content as always Captain :)

@DiploStrats 2 года назад

This is something we'd love to have but it's a bit awkward with the way Backstabbr displays it (it sometimes sticks it on two lines, sometimes on one) so for now we're excluding it. Will look for ways to update our interface in future to be a little less barebones!

@laKogane 2 года назад

I can't wait for the end, I have to ask Meme: In Spring 05, following your Fall 04 signal support of Black Sea into Con, Russia goes ahead and takes support into Con, getting the fleet out of the Black Sea, ideally for a Spring pass through... but for the life of me I can't understand /why/ Russia would want Con to head out into Aegean. What would Russia have to gain in supported pass-throughs from Fall 05 other than a chance at a possibly vacated Smy/Bulgaria in 06? The fleet is so far out of position otherwise that I can't understand why it would be willing to leave right as Austria cracks & Rumania moves into Bud. From the Russian's perspective, CON is the only realistic center & they should be tapping right back into the Black Sea in Fall 05, no? -If Ankara is rotating (especially with Bulgarian support) , they'd have gotten you to waste some time at no cost to themselves during the phase when Rumania was left open. -If Ankara immediately backfills Black Sea, the resulting bounce grants Russia Constantinople and feeds them a build to shore up their position in Sev quickly. -A hold/Con-Bulgaria move in that Ankara-Con scenario allows Russia to pop the fleet or a retreat to Black Sea. What does AEG do for Russia that Black Sea wouldn't at this point? Wouldn't blowing up the fleet make more sense than having it in the Med as Italy cracks? I don't see anyone besides you they could reasonably poach centers from any time soon and their best options beyond Con itself still bound the Black Sea. Ah well, looking forward to my noob questions being answered in F1905 and beyond! Great to see you and Ezio back in action! ^^

@laKogane 2 года назад

Having seen 05-06, the first thing I'll say is WOW... Russia's move tops the earlier Ukraine or Army Brest moves as the single worst in this match. As for whether yours were optimal - getting into Ionian was mutually exclusive with covering Constantinople & tapping Rumania (which made perfect sense to me given the essay I wrote above) so your Fall 05 made perfect sense to me. Buckle up!

@DiploStrats 2 года назад

Your analysis is absolutely spot on imo! If Russia was playing optimally here they should never have left Black Sea. In F04, Russia's F Bla is the single strongest unit on the south side of the board - possibly even on the entire board, because it gives Russia a massive advantage over Turkey in the RT alliance without actually breaking said alliance. A well-timed convoy into Ank can just destroy Turkey completely, which is why I was so paranoid about it and kept the fleet back there - and even if I'm defending against something like that, it still gives a massive advantage on any slower attack like supporting into Bul or Arm. Even if Russia was never intending to stab me, the presence of that fleet still means I can't stab them without telegraphing it massively by putting a second fleet on Bla, which gives them time to prepare and defend. Both of these were why I was so desperate to get it out :D I knew from earlier that the Russian was willing to do odd stuff that required heavy coordination (specifically, the Ank-Con convoy) and players like that often go all in on alliances - they view the odd moves as ways to lock down a rock solid alliance that goes to the end of the game, and a lot of the time it works because the other players who do that think the same way! So my read on the Russian was that they'd value doing something out of the ordinary more than they'd value defending themself against something they thought was solidly with them. Turned out to be the right read :D

@solsystem1342 Год назад

Average game length is a poor measure here. What we want is how long we expect the game to continue. Which is subtly different once the game can end. For example if you make it to 1912 you shouldn't expect the game to end that turn. It should be like 1.8 turns on average or something like that. Then a bit shorter once it hits 40% per year. Otherwise our brains will play tricks on us where we think the game is more likely to end this year if it's 1919 then 1918. Tldr: odds stack weirdly when you're talking about a "average" length of an ongoing process and you have to ignore previous rolls when calculating chance because you already know the result.

@DiploStrats Год назад

I don't remember exactly what I said on the subject in this video, but I remember being a bit uneasy about the conclusions we were arriving at! I never like doing maths (especially probability) on the spot because I'm well aware I can be terrible at it. Thank you!