There is 1 major factor here that's being left out. Epic Universe. The people who are typically coming during the summer holidays are once in a lifetimers, or are at least people who only come like once every 4 or 5 years. The Decline in summer crowds could be explained by these less frequent visitors and tourists simply waiting for Epic Universe to open. Why schedule your once in a lifetime vacation to Orlando in 2024 when they have a highly anticipated brand new park opening next year? These seemingly dwindling summer crowds could easily shoot right back up come next year. So I would take all of this with a pinch of salt.
My husband and I are staying in a Universal resort for the first time in early February. It will probably be half dead because everybody is going to wait for Epic Universe to open and that is good for us.
Hm true but epic universe was announced in 2019 and only recently started seeing actual advertising so there's that. Though a review video later next year would be interesting to see if the effects are still there with epic universe in consideration.
Summer crowds have been dropping for like 20 years,what's been killing summer off is facebook and instagram,people before social media were ignorant to the fact that it gets hot and rains a lot in Florida during summer,now they just come throughout the rest of the year,summer is dead,much better times to go.Back maybe 30 years ago summer was peak time.
Memorial Day weekend these past 2 years at Great America (CA) has been very quiet. The only HOLY SHIT ITS PACKED day is July 4th and some days in December.
We did a big family trip to Disneyland/DCA and Magic Mountain for chirstmas this last year and HOLY SHIT. We do Disney somewhat regularly, but I pushed for doing at least one day at Magic Mountain. I'd never been and love coasters and ended up only going on 5 rides all day. I waited an hour for Viper right at the start of the day, then 1 hour to order pizza, then 3.5 for X2 right after that. Wasted half the day. I always watched videos of coaster vloggers riding these rides multiple times per day with no issue and thought we wouldn't be that much worse off during the holidays. Boy was I wrong.
As somebody who goes to the parks with my wife multiple times a year, I want to bring up another busy time that was only touched on in the video: Fall Break (typically from the very end of September through October). Fall Break is becoming more common in US schools, and since it's a somewhat newer concept, there are a lot of families who have the same idea - come during an extended break that is still not as ubiquitous as the other seasonal breaks. The result is that (anecdotally) my wife and I witnessed crowds and wait times that surpassed what we experienced during Spring and Summer, especially in the past two years. I think October is going to continue to become a worse time to visit until people realize that Fall Break crowds are now very much a thing.
The reason Disney was so quiet during certain times last year was due to the blackout dates of the annual passes. Disney stopped the pass holders from coming at certain times, and those were the quiet times…
You're right, I've been thinking about how people have incentive to avoid summer (heat + percieved crowds), and are instead now moving to going during Halloween and of course Christmas. There are more special offerings during those times for people to take advantage of
I also think this shows that the Orlando parks are getting consistent crowds nowadays. People often tell stories of the Orlando Parks being a ghost town at certain times in the late 90s, early 00s, but that doesn't happen anymore. The crowds are evening out and the once less crowded "lesser holidays" are catching up to the average now
When looking at crowd calendars, don't just look at the crowd prediction for your trip dates, check the crowd history on that date from previous years.
2018 Spring break crowds at Universal were so bad that the following years I took my kid out of school for February trips instead. I then have followed crowd levels on livestreams - and noticed the downward trend in March-April. Aha, I said, lots of others have had it with an artificial timing of vacations into 6 weeks.
I would love to see a followup to this at the end of the year with the updated 2024 numbers. It's funny to look at the numbers because I feel that they are showing a shift in mindset from 2019. Not just people trying to beat the crowds but also on the economic environment. If you were to ask people how they thought the economy was in 2019 vs now, I bet you would get a more positive outlook back then. So it shows that maybe people are starting to reign in spending a bit. That's why seeing the 2024 numbers would be really interesting. Keep up the good work!
I think the reason many people weren't at the major Orlando parks in 2023 is because many were at the different water parks in the area. Krakatau at Volcano Bay reached up to a 5 hour wait that Sunday. SeaWorld was even manageable despite opening Pipeline last year.
Can confirm, Easter week was horrible at Universal Orlando. Doesn't help my family kept refusing to even coordinate and ride most rides so most of my family rode 5 rides while I managed 10 and none of which were sims.
My anniversary is around Presidents’ Day but the parks are packed and hotels are hard to book because there is usually Cheerleading competition, pga tour, nascar tournaments all around that time which brings in crowds. July 4th and 5th 2023 were also the hottest days recorded on earth as someone who went to the park those days it was MISERABLE. Love the video.
Summer in Orlando is crazy hot. I can’t imagine planning a visit during Florida summer unless your crew is incredibly heat tolerant or you have no other choice. Ideally go when kids are in school if you can - tough when kids are older though.
My family always went to WDW, (every 3 years or so, starting in the 70’s… I’m old lol), in the summer, when kids were all out of school. But the climate is changing and making FL (outdoors) literally unbearable for like 2/3 of the year. I never remember such *continuous* oppressive heat and humidity as we’ve had the last couple times we went. It makes for a dreadfully unpleasant but still really expensive vacation! Last time it happened, ‘22, we all swore that we would never go back in Summer break, no matter how crowded or not it is. Luckily, my kid is now in her last year of high school, so we no longer have to work around that break schedule, (don’t know what siblings with younger kids will decide - either to take the kids out of school, or just not take them anymore - and I don’t care)… *My* small family will be going only between like Nov and March.
We did Disney Labor Day last year (2023) and the crowds were nonexistent. I would every year during this time. We walked on to just about every attraction- including Rise.
I went to Orlando in Labor Day weekend 2019 and did all the parks for my birthday. There is a BIG reason the parks were not as crowded as expected: a category 5 hurricane. People chose to not potentially die that week and avoided the parks all together. It was beautiful empty and did everything like 4 times
I think another piece of the puzzle is the increasing temperatures of the summer months. Waiting in line sucks. Waiting in line in hot AND humid temperatures? You might as well have a more fun time staying home.
The only reason why my husband and I can go next year is because we don't have children or a vehicle so we are able to save money pretty easily. Families are having a hard time financially right now.
As a local in Orlando I visit Universal and Disney almost every week, and I remember going to Disney when Spring Break started and we expected it to be horrible, because everyone says "it will be soooo busy" and it was oddly chill. I have had many random weekdays be much more crowded than when we went during the beginning of spring break.
Well there's a lot of other factors to consider. Like depending on the school kids, or parents, may have parades, or ceremonies they need to attend for Memorial Day, or the 4th. Some schools start practices before Labor Day.
USF seems upticks for Labor day now because it's HHN opening week. So people who go to the opening week of HHN get in on the weekend and stay for the opening couple of days/week. I always travel in for opening and can confirm, those parks are empty as hell.
Absolute slowest time is mid August through mid Sept,its the trifecta for people to not come,schools are starting,worst if hurricane season and generally crappy weather,hot,humid and rainy
First of all have you been to Florida during the summer? The heat and humidity are unbearable. Plus it rains practically everyday. Most Northerners either take trips somewhere else or go to a theme park that is closer to home. Labor day weekend is also near the peak of hurricane season so people don't wanna risk having to cancel their trip last minute because of a storm.
Summer in Orlando is crazy hot. I can’t imagine planning a visit during Florida summer unless your crew is incredibly heat tolerant or you have no other choice. Ideally go when kids are in school if you can - tough when kids are older though. I’d guess Labor Day has lower crowds because it’s right at the start of the school year, usually around the first week.
Wasn’t Disney expecting park attendance to be down 25% this year? Maybe people are just falling out of love with current day Disney? They’re just not the same company we grew up with anymore.
I went to Disneyland resort and universal Hollywood over spring break this year, I expected insane waits. Forbidden journey was a walk on for the entire day I was there, Disney had similar results.
Easter 2024 was early (March 29 -31) so coincided with many school breaks which don't revolve around Easter. Easter 2025 will be late so likely won't see such a dramatic increase in crowds. You have to take into account, I think, when Easter actually falls. Easter 2022 and 2019 were relatively late as well (mid to late April) so would not have coincided as much with other non-easter school breaks. In other words, the spring break season was more stretched out in 2019, 2022 and will be again in 2025. It was condensed in 2024. Please revisit this to see if my prediction for 2025 comes to pass 😊.
I went the week after labor day on a universal trip and can confirm the crowds were low. I was able to do all 10 hhn houses houses in 1 night. I could only do half that number at hhn in early October '23. Also I went to Universal last President's Day weekend, and it was the pits.😢
Last year I went to WDW in mid-April and it was pretty empty. I stayed at Pop Century, and as long as I headed out around 7, there was pretty much no line to get onto the Skyliner. This year I went about ten days after the date of last year, headed down to the Skyliner at 7 and found a very big line. I was legitimately surprised and confused. I’m thinking COVID may have something to do with it. Yeah, the pandemic’s technically been over for a while now, but I think a lot of people were still playing it safe, and now everybody is eager to go on vacation again so they’re all going at once. I know this year some theme park journalists even wrote that crowds were going back up after being more latent.
I also wonder if like, increases in heat and storms in the Florida parks is making those summer days less appealing. I would be so curious to see how comparative crowds are in northern/seasonal parks on three day weekends. Especially because the Florida parks are mostly served by northern tourists. Like is no one from New York/New Jersey going down to Orlando, but is Great Adventure more busy?
I was at SeaWorld Orlando and I checked a crowd calendar to make sure it wasn’t going to be busy cause it said it would only be 12% crowds and it was PACKED. I'm talking 120 minute waits at SEAWORLD!! It was so insane, when they updated the percentage at the end of the day for the crowd calendar it said it was a 93% crowd day. Absolutely insane.
* MLK seems to not be as busy as one might expect. * we were at WDW for memorial day, 2024. can confirm, not busy, even at EPCOT (last weekend for Flower & Garden). it was HOT (high 90's), sunny, the entire weekend. * labor day might be lower because schools are back in session? september is traditionally a great month to visit (presumably because school just started, but that's also why it's a great time to take kids out of school for a vaycay...) * i know winter break is crazy-busy (2019 was BANANAS), but it is my favorite time of year to go. the decorations are amazing (i'm looking at you, Hollywood Studios and Disney Springs). snoap is amazing. the crazy crowds, everyone's happy, it's 80 degrees during the day and 65 at night...love it. * MID december is great - you get all the holiday stuff but fewer people.
i went to disney on memorial day weekend, and it was AWESOME! everything except epcot (which still wasn't bad) were EMPTY im also going 4th of july, and im hoping for the same! 😬
I think another factor that is at play is the reservation system. One HUGE difference between Universal and Disney in the last couple years is that except for the immediate post-pandemic period, Universal hasn't been requiring reservations while Disney has! And when people can't get into Disney, they flock to the competition.😊
President's Day is school vacation week in much of the country. We actually already do your recommendations (kinda): mid-May, early Dec. Mid-May was supposed to be dead, less so than early May. It was about average, still felt very busy, hotter than we thought it would be, lol. To put it in perspective, posted wait for Tower of Terror in the evening was 120 mins. TWO HOURS, on a random Wednesday! Historically that random wednesday was 45 mins. Early May is cheer and dance competition, which is why we avoid that week. Mid-end of May we saw a TON of grads or class trips. Met a 5th grade class from Miami. THAT'S the field trip these days, lmao. Early December seems to be doing what you're saying...people are going then because of the crowd calendars, so it's getting much busier than the crowd calendars say. Really, the best time is, like you said, end of January and summer, if you can handle the ungodly heat. Also February OUTSIDE of school breaks and competitions, and parts of April as well (outside of April school vacation or anything near Easter).
This is something I’ve actually been noticing too as a theme park lover. I often visit on the days between Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. It was initially a very pleasant time to visit, but it seems like as 2024 hit, crowds have come to naturally view the weekend as a death trap and are doing everything in their power to go on the weekdays instead. Now it seems like Sunday is the best day of the week to visit because Saturday will always be a fairly busy day regardless, but by association of BEING a weekend day, people avoid Sundays a lot, leaving it as a relaxing not too crowded day. I think as a whole though theme parks are getting busier, so true empty days are basically impossible now😂 We unfortunately have to start expecting more slightly above average wait times(between 30-45 mins).
last year, I was put incharge of planning a family trip to Universal Orlando. I did take those calendars in account, but because price was a sticking point, I ended up convincing family wo wait a week so tickets would be something like $85 a day direct. Aside from the D and E ticket attractions, most everything was a walk on or abt 15 mins of a wait. (it was the third week of September, and I'm unsure if I can replicate that again considering all this)
As an orlando local… February is the most crowded and worst month. Tons of companies have conventions and you have the national cheerleading competition. Then you have people who are sick of the cold by then and come down to florida for a February getaway and Presidents’ Day.
I just got back from Hershey Park for my 25th birthday on June 23 which is a Saturday and it was basically walk ons on all rides all day!! Couldn't believe it
Very interesting analysis, I would love to see how this is affected by the dynamic pricing. Before dynamic pricing, I think those summer weekend should be pretty crowded, though that may have changed because of the price of admission after dynamic pricing.
Love your video. I’m probably gonna use this chart. One thing I think we need to consider is maybe why these crowds are dead during these times. Are ticket prices higher maybe?
This definitely depends on the theme park because people probably won't take off work for a local theme park and it would be more subject to the school system's schedule
I think its also worth to note that i think at disney in particular, the overall crowd levels have been down. Like just not as many people are going there anymore which is why disney has been offering crazy deals lately to get you to stay there
I wonder how these dates correlate to increased admission/hotel pricing. If the company thinks they’ll be busy they’ll up the rates and no one wants to go when it’s most expensive.
I visited during the beginning of December in 2022 and was able to get on a lot. My party also stayed for the after-hours at Disney which, while still having some good wait times (I think the highest was Splash with around 30 minutes) was not too packed. I specifically remember Small World, Space Mountain, and PhilarMagic having next-to no wait. I also don’t know when I’ll get another chance to say this, but PhilarMagic is the best pre-recorded show at Disney. Fight me.
I think there are other factors that play into crowd levels. It's not as easy as comparing wait times. Visiting a park was different in 2019 and even in 2022/2023 compared to 2024. For example, changing fastpasses to Lightning Lanes (for a fee). Are less people buying LL compared to people using free fastpasses? Was having more guests in the fastpass lines slowing down the regular line thus driving up wait times?? Now the opposite is happening, less people in LL lines because they don't want to pay for the service, therefore making the regular line move quicker, driving down wait times. Also, in 2022/2023, guests had to reserve parks in advance and could only park hop after 2PM, I'm sure this drove guests to remain in their first park of choice and less park hopping. Just saying that looking at wait times to determine park crowds is not the only factor - only Disney has the true numbers as to how many guests are in the parks at any given time to determine if busier or not.
I think there are three things being neglected in this analysis. 1. The economy sucks and prices have gone up dramatically while their paychecks remain stagnant. I would be curious to compare the wait times in 2016 to 2023. I suspect you'll see much higher wait times in 2016. 2. The parks themselves change the pricing for tickets and resorts based on perceived or potential bookings. When Disney and Universal raise the prices because they expect a lot of people to buy, don't be surprised when less people actually buy. 3. Remote work and remote schooling has changed when people can take vacations. They no longer have to wait for long weekends and holidays, they can just take their laptop with them and work/school before heading to the parks. Overall, this was a great data-driven analysis.
Also in May can sometimes be crowded and early June besides memorial, that also be Graduation season which alot of high schools and Middle School take Grad nights during some days, I saw Disneyland having the most crowds due to grad nite so a sign to know is based on the buses in the parking lot
The simple solution to all of this would be for the parks to be transparent about how many tickets are already sold prior to purchasing. Of course, that will NOT happen, but... the market would adjust.
