It should but won't. Nobody is screaming their binary whataboutist position at Kendrick PerkinsTein's real-life bobblehead. Nuance is for the introspective and nerdy few. And it always will be.
ur so wrong bro cause ive seen this channel myself explode from 10k subs to 70k super fast. and this 70k is gonna seem outdated really quick. you underestimate people too much.@@pressvinyl4420
but this isnt reality. its his reality and whatever stats he wants to use. its also his own definiton of what clutch is. whatever the nba defines as clutch or clutch squared doesnt mean anything. this is type of video is misleading and a lazy representation of what it means to be clutch
I’m thinking if this metric hurts teams and players that don’t allow for games to be too close-essentially making shots made in the first quarter just as “crucial” as those made in garbage time. Or tis this a non factor?
Didn’t expect to tear up at the end of a clutch debate video but here we are. Incredible videography, editing, and storytelling throughout this whole video. Really appreciate you guys pushing forward the creativity on RU-vid
@@michaelmackelvie I really don't like your model. It is biased towards players who hover around the basket on defense. Also, if your claim is to find the most clutch player ever, you can't have missing data. Go collaborate with others who have the data prior to '96. Watch the games and take notes yourself, I don't care. That's not acceptable. Furthermore, introduce weights for regular season and play-offs, with the weights going higher as you approach the finals. Spend half of the effort you put on editing this video to milk RU-vid views into actual data gathering and analysis and maybe it will be half-good.
Entertaining video but doesn’t tell the complete story as not examines context of those “clutch shots” like for example Lebron is not a shot maker, (his clutch shots are mostly wide open layups while Kobe’s are super skilled jump shots). There are tons of RU-vid channels that would totally debunked your analysis here, you look like another Leblob fanboy.
Bron used to get torched by the media for passing the ball late in games. I always thought that was silly. Make the right play. That's why guys like cp3, jokic and coming soon...SGA are great clutch players. They're going to try to make the right high percentage play and take whatever the defense gives them.
@@darrel7589 Did you see the video? Did you see the game 1 week ago against the Clippers? What do you base on saying that, Lebron has repeatedly made clutch plays, whether through passes or shots. What happens is that the haters focus only on his mistakes. The opposite is Kobe, people only remember his clutch shots scored, but don't remember all the times he missed.
@@spiderjerusalem9837definitely not with shots. Lebron has had clutch moments but is incredibly inconsistent. For his career he is 17.5% in clutch situations. 12.3% from 3 point range
@@biz09ification *Man why are spamming these out of context, unverified stat lines anywhere LeBron's name is mentioned? As if none of us just watched this video explain LeBron's all-around clutch shooting is slightly above average* 😂
I find it interesting that both Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic were very high on the WPA added list. Their 2 man game will be a problem for years to come.
One thing that always gets overlooked is players shying away from clutch pressure. If you are the star of the team with the ball in your hand and your team needs a clutch shot and you choose to pass it away and let your teammate take the heat for you, your stat line would not record it but it should count as a missed shot on your part.
Confirmation bias likely fogs our perception of 'clutch' players too. We're more likely to remember and emphasize the great last second makes than misses causing us to over-value a player's ability in the clutch.
That’s what makes it weird with Kobe. I’m a big Lakers and Kobe fan and there’s really only one big shot that I can really think on in his playoff career whereas I can think of several for MJ and Lebron each, for example. Yet people say he’s right there with those guys in the clutch, but the number don’t really back that up neither does the catalogue of big shots that we remember back that up. But the aura of Kobe Bryant remains large.
@TheGeorgeD13 wow. you're a lakers/Kobe guy, but you can only think of a SINGLE playoff clutch bucket by KBB? He had 3 clutch² shots in ONE GAME, vs. PHX in 2006, round 1, hit 1 to put it into OT, 1 to pull within 1 in OT w/11+ secs left, & 1 jumper @ the buzzer to win it. Then hit a 3 to go up 1 vs. PHX in G6 w/a minute & change, then hit on a drive to go up 3 w/29 secs. 08, R2 G4 vs Denv., down 4, hits in lane vs double w/over a minute left, then an assist to Odom for 3, 54 secs to tie, plus OT buckets & assist. Or, WCF 08 vs. S.A., tied, hits J w/20 secs. left... 08 Finals vs. Bos, G3, J to go up 6 w/36 secs... G4, down 4, bucket w/1:30 to get within 2...G5, steal & dunk to go up 4 w/39 secs left. 09 R1 G3, tying shot w/29 secs, assist to gasol for tying dunk w/11 secs left. I could go on & on... so many examples just in the playoffs. But I'm sure I remember this stuff bc I'm getting old. Cheers.
As a lifelong Laker fan and growing up with Kobe as a sports hero, this very much aligns with my experience of him over time. He is without a doubt a great clutch player, which is to say he can make a higher % of difficult shots than almost anyone else, but that was also his weakness, he took too many of them, when he didnt need to, instead of passing the ball in late game moments. I think he thought too much about the Jordan shadow and cared too much about what people would say if he passed the ball to an open player (like they did with Lebron) and made his team end up with a worse shot. He lost many close games not just on clutch shot misses, but in the 5+ minutes of the 4th quarter where he would try to "take over" and run into double and triple teams and still shoot over them. It is crazy to think 1. That his teams ended up as successful as they did and 2. They could have been even better if he passed more often in those moments where the opposing team was 100% assuming he would take the last shot.
I sat this as a Lakers and Kobe fan, but I often wonder if Kobe’s own ego prevented him from being the GOAT or at least to legitimately be in that conversation (with both the way he handled the Shaq thing and with the way he wouldn’t always make the smartest plays in the clutch). Despite being revered by fans and players alike, he’s rarely ever been in that convo and for good reason. I will always maintain that making a great pass is a clutch play. MJ passing to Kerr was clutch. Also that play that led to Paxson’s game winner was perfect team Basketball and MJ buying into that team concept by making the first pass in that sequence was a big part of why they won 6 in 8 years. I think something that is missed about the GOAT debate is that MJ probably understood the balance between calling your own number and playing proper team basketball and “making the right play” than both Lebron and Kobe did. Lebron and Kobe are two extremes whereas MJ from 1991-1998 was perfectly balanced.
Agreed, he would be somewhere in of 10 if he just didn’t take some of those super highly contested shots. Same thing happens with Steph, very highly contested low percentage shots.
@TheGeorgeD13 Agreed, although MJ knowing the difference between when to play Hero Ball and when to pass wasn't probable, he definitely knew. John Paxson in particular was clutch, MJ most definitely knew this. Pax had gotten them into the playoffs with a late game winner in the final game of the season in '86, then in '91 MJ would often go to him in the clutch because he knew that, 1) Pax was open, he was not. And 2) Pax was more than just a quality shooter especially when it came to the clutch moments. Then like you said that perfect team basketball in '93 was just sublime. You don't just earn consistent passes from the GOAT in the final minutes of multiple championship runs without earning his trust and respect. Then in '97 the Steve Kerr shot. That wasn't a spur of the moment type thing, MJ knew exactly what was gonna go down and told Steve the exact way that their next possession would unfold after the timeout. Then just like Jordan said it would, it happened.
He's taken far and away the tougher shots in general. Perhaps he sought that out. With Lebron the guy is probably either dunking or at the rim in a majority of them. Kobe's falling away with 3 defenders in his gril and frankly that's why you watch him and the Lakers, because it was amazing. Lebron's athleticism as well with the chase down blocks, and those thunderous patented Lebron dunks on a breakaway.
I've seen some amazing analytically driven basketball stories over the past few years but this one blows everything I've laid eyes on out of the water. Amazing content Michael, Thank you for sharing your artistic vision of number with us.
Ive just got back into basketball after not playing for 30 yrs. Been watching alot to catch up and by far your work is top. Full on majestic some times fella. Loving it.
I'm old. To me the most amazingly clutch dude ( for a few years anyway) was Robert Horry of all people. In the playoffs that dude hit dagger after dagger.
I appreciate not only your data analysis, but your interpretation as well. It's one thing to say this player is the most clutch but to say he's only four shots away from average helps but it into perspective. And to also take into account other clutch elements, just great work.
This is the best analysis i have watched ever, absolutely mindblowing, i bet the football or soccer teams i Europe will be delighted to have you, analysing penalty kicks direction, free kicks, strategies before the kick ....
Excellent video! 👍👋 Think this at least part of the explanation of why Dubs lose so many clutch games this season: they basically SOLELY rely on Steph's greatness, and the opponent knows it and just traps him!
And Steph doesn’t have the type of player build to sustain that like Kobe or Jordan did. What for Kobe was a bad shot is a horrible shot for Curry in the clutch when the double comes. How you impact spacing (curry’s greatest threat) matters far less in the clutch if you’re expected to shoot. All love to both Kobe is still my favorite player.
I think that’s where any claim that clutchness isn’t real falls apart. Horry was never a star, yet he performed like one in clutch moments. When the lights are brightest, some players are able to feed off that energy, and some players shirk away from it.
As I said after the last video, I'm frankly amazed this channel hasn't blown up. You have interesting takes with a wealth of insight on fascinating topics. Your already great video production seems to get better with each video. I don't even watch the NBA anymore, and I still look forward to every video, just because of how it makes me think about these topics in a new way.
Your videos are always transcendent journey for me. But this 😲. Wow. Your closing thoughts are so personal and visceral to me, I’m moved. Thank you for this, truly captures the NBA nerd’s attention. Absolutely amazing 💯
The case of Steph and AD are not only about small sample sizes but also about conditional probability. Not all clutch situations are created equally, and the 2016 Warriors would be having a bad day for them to be stuck in the clutch, while the Pelicans is basically a 50-50 team in their best recent seasons, so clutch time is not that different from normal times. In fact, the whole notion that early-game play swing the needle less is objectively untrue because every basket is still worth the same 2 or 3 points. In that case, the impact, even minor ones, a player can add throughout around 100 possessions throughout the game is more valuable than some "clutch performance."
Yeah makes me think of the thing you see in the NFL of how many "Game Tying/Winning Drives" or "4th QTR comebacks" a QB has. The reason some of the all time greats don't show up there as much as you'd think isn't a lack of "clutchness" but that you can't have these epic close game & comeback moments if you're in the lead and crushing opposing teams to bits. Ultimately what's more "clutch": hitting a buzzer beater to win game 7 or never getting to a game 7 in the first place because it was a sweep and your team won by 20 every game?
@@kylepratt425 That’s fair, but for American football aren’t the variation a bit larger in terms of score? Also the fact that playoff games are best of one instead of seven, so I thought clutch stats would align even more with the players’ usual stats because of all the stochasticity
Due to the fact that the clock has less time on it, it is undoubtedly statistically the case that a two point shot to tie the game with 30 seconds left has more impact on the outcome than a two point shot made in the 1st quarter.
@@zeb_reynolds No it doesn’t. You’re thinking that because you’re given the condition that the first 47:30 of the game was close, but the last shots with 30 seconds left didn’t create that condition or sway the probability of that condition to happen.
Loved this. I grew up watching Kobe and I cant deny his greatness but as a Spurs fan we had a lot of battles that went down to the wire. I cant remember one of them being from Kobe... Fisher, Fox, and Horry killed us though lol. RIP Kobe
fulishthinkfungersaregood, but the video is really trying to get a more specific and more interesting discussion, so definitely not a waste of time. It was never about determining the clutch goat.
This was incredible, incredible video. Love the writing, the subtly, the clarity, the use of visuals and audio cues. My hats off to the writer, the editor, and the compilers of data. Great, entertaining, educational content. I didn't realize this thumbnail was for this channel btw. I was delighted when I realized this guy was the host. And I guess it can be argued that I clicked on the thumbnail not Knowing who it was. But yt has been. Keeping this video in my mentions and I clicked on it for white noise. My praise above is because of how delighted and surprised I was for quality of what I clicked on. And I'd suggest the team at least consider evaluating developing a common language for the channel's thumbnails. I click on the um nail expecting a low production amateur rant.
Fantastic video. I encourage Michael to consider the differences in FT% at end of games. No explanation for differences in where/when/who save a few intentional misses. There seems to be actual physiological factors that affect performance in more stressful situations. Worth looking into more.
Yeah which I think is where the conversation gets convoluted. It's a great analysis, but it's not what people mean when they say clutch. It's really that physiological factor. Can you control your nervous system. I completely agree with you. Free throws are the *BEST* way to determine clutch performance because it removes everything else and becomes about how well you can control/ignore your nerves.
17.5% in clutch situations for his career, 12.3% from 3 point range in clutch situations for his career. Hes missed 94 out of 114 total shots in career clutch situations. 50 missed out of 57 from 3 point range
@@tridra5714this one kills me bro lmao. I’ve said it for years, it’s almost as if these fake analysts (who’ve never played and really don’t understand what they’re watching) aren’t watching what we are. Bron is the most clutch player in NBA history.
That boy Bron is cold man lol.That’s insane how far he was from everyone else even after the players averages in 30 GP was made to be what was being measured. People cannot fathom that the guy the media has been lying to us about when it comes to “not having the ability to shoot, not being clutch in any moment, etc.” - that it’s been the opposite. He’s the most clutch player in history.
So true. There is a fixation on scoring. As a Raptors fan, I was astounded at how clutch Kawhi was during our championship run. He seemed to grab an offensive rebound off of a missed free throw, at the end of almost every close game during our run. Offensive rebounds off of free throws is almost unheard of, but Kawhi did it to help secure win after win.
Came to say the same thing. Kobe was a volume shooter and quite inefficient many times. Kobe was a dog, but many casuals who just watched ESPN top 10 and remember only the clutch shots Kobe hit, never really watched the games and seen just the enormous amount of bricks Kobe threw up. Then the misinformed who lived in some imaginary universe call it slander.
@@michaelmackelvieExcept you'd have to add up every counting stat during those clutch moments since it wasn't automatically tracked and stored in a database. If there is no resource for those numbers then you've just made up a statistic
14:01 chart The fact that Gobert is on this list probably wouldn't be a shock to Jazz fans having seen the dude with multiple Walk-Off Blocks to win the game
in general big players have a far better efficiency thru all ranks and fg attempts. i think its just the nature of kareems dogma that 2pointerrs near the rim are the better choice. well they were until the first 50% 3p shooters came along.
It is about time people give Lebron the accolades he truly deserves. To this day there are still so many who refuse to even put him in the conversation with Jordan, which makes no sense. Looking past biases, Lebron truly is an all time great and very deserving of the GOAT title. Also not surprised by AD. As a Kentucky fan I've followed his career closely and he's always delivered when it matters.
For me Jordan and LeBron just stand so far above everyone else. I don't care about rings or clutch moments. Just look at the volume and variety of their highlight reels. Very different players, but the deepest bags ever.
Basketball is a team sport. What LeBron often gets criticized for, passing to open teammates in clutch situations, is what makes him the Clutch Goat, by the numbers.
Just because someone On RU-vid invented a random criteria to fluff LeBron, that doesn't make it true. Going by *the NBA's* standard: _LeBron James Has Only Made 19 Of 107 Shots In Clutch Situations During His Career 17.8% FG, 12.5% From 3-Pointers_ . Type that in Google and see what you find. (Can't post links in the comments section anymore.)
As a Celtics fan, I can assure you LeBron is exactly who I thought it was. LeBron knows that guys playing meaningful minutes in the playoffs are good and that an easy shot by a good player is better than a difficult shot by an all-time great.
no way...he actually took the time to do stop animation with legos...i need to know how long you spent on that versus how long you thought you were going to spend.
Illegal Defense rule are placed in the old eras where majority of the shots were in the paint but also defenders can be more aggressive, without that rule the paint would be clogged all the time by players. Imagine if it still exists today with elite scorers and shooters, the game would be more boring.
Awesome. Please make a video highlighting all the idiots who criticized LeBron for passing on clutch shots (to open shooters) the first 10 years of his career. Did you notice Horry and Fisher on that all-time chart?
Mj was just like kobe for most his career took mad shots and only won with scottie and Phil so I bet all my money he was slightly worst or better than kobe
@@Flawless_technique You know why he only won with Phil and Scotty. Because it took a while to build a functional team from the crappy one he came in on. He also didn't change teams (and thus players and coaches) like socks. Plus, he only played 13 full seasons, 11 of them in Chicago. In those 2 years, Whashington has risen from a similar low as the Bulls were at the beginning of his career. And that mad shoots? Taking 3 more shots per game is mad shots? Oh, come on.
I’m ngl, when you got to playoffs, practically everyone was RIGHT where I expected them to be… further proving why I don’t buy into fanmade myths, narratives and agendas made about certain and really all players… You’re ELITE For This Man 🤝🤝✊✊
So LeBron is the king of affecting the outcome of games and yet is still 4-6 in the finals…. This is where the data an analytics still fail. Give me Jordan.
@@nahman3474 Both LB and JW were in the league at the time :D And yeah, I did hear that after I commented, but GOAT != Greatest of the Last 28 Years lol
@@nahman3474 those stats are WRONG...i can easilly bring a tone of other stats saying he wasnt ....and everyone knows that LEBRON wasnt clutch...this is just cherry picking and saying that clutch is 5 minutes..or even worse basic passes meaning he was clutch or the fact that he had 20 points in one game in clutch and then forget that his FG% wasnt really good
This is fascinating. This is the first time I’ve ever seen WPA involved in any basketball discussion at all. It’s interesting because WPA and CWPA are huge in baseball discussions. Love this look on the sport.
Why even include Jordan in this when you're only counting his last couple seasons with the Bulls and his Wizards seasons, all in his late 30s+ ? That makes all his numbers completely irrelevant. Jordan is clearly the most clutch all-time. Hits 50% of his game-winners/game-tying shots for his career.
The problem with using data to analyze clutch moments is it largely assigns all clutch situations the same value. Jordan hitting “the shot” to win that series at Cleveland is called “the shot” for a reason. If he missed, his team lost the series. The entire series hinged on that single shot he made. Compare that to LeBron making a buzzer beater in a tie game while up 2-0 in a series vs Toronto in 2018. Just not even close to the same thing at all. Using data is helpful and I thought this analysis was overall really good, but context still matters.
It 100% can't be quantified. LeBron's anti clutch reputation isn't something that randomly fell from the sky. He's had his awful moments and we haven't forgotten them. Our eyes don't lie. If a mathematical analysis of clutch moments spits out LeBron as the best clutch performer, something must be wrong with the data or the interpretation of the data. I go back to my previous example, a buzzer beater with no actual pressure (LeBron up 2-0 in a series vs Toronto) is not the same thing as making a series winning buzzer beater while down a point (Jordan's shot). But the data treats them the SAME.
@@iDominatemkwii it seems like you are choosing memorable as a primary criteria for defining clutch. Problem with that is it’s very susceptible to memory bias. At least the video’s approach to defining clutch is systematic and applied the same to all of those players. So even if it’s slightly generous in defining clutch, it’s generous for all the players in the conversation
@@gtg196w I honestly agree with you and totally admit to bias being part of the the argument I’m making, but being able to remember certain plays is part of the legacy that a player leaves behind. If LeBron is the most clutch player ever, why do so few people recall clutch shots he’s made? Like I said, there’s a reason certain players are remembered as clutch performers and some are not. There’s a reason for everything. This video kinda suggests that LeBron’s anti clutch reputation is pure propaganda and untrue. And I disagree wholeheartedly with that. I’ve watched the games. I’ve followed his career. And I’m not saying that you haven’t. I just think the definition of “clutch” used in this video is way too generous
I'm still taking Jordan or Bird. Going back to '96 in not far enough especially if you're including Jordan. This isn't valid for me because it's too recent. Why would you even include Jordan if you're stopping at '96 knowing most of his career had been played already?
Because hes trying to create tension by showing that the most un clutch player of all time Lebron, is somehow more clutch than Jordan. By using misleading stats he can prove that Lebron is the Goat and not Jordan. Jordan is the greatest basketball to ever live. Just go watch his tapes and tell me otherwise.
@@noahdragon777oh I know because I watched Jordan's entire career living in Chicago, I'm 52. I didn't even make it through the first few minutes of this nonsense video. Once he said going back to '96 then I tuned it out. If we're talking about the most clutch ever it should go back to 1960 or at least the '76 when the merger happened. At my age I can't stand listening to too many young dudes speak on the game because they're recent biased and have no real knowledge of the old school game. Just because I'm old school doesn't mean that I'm always old school biased either. I just call out the nonsense the game has become because of the rule changes and allowing players to get away with violating the rules in the rule book. And the pampering they get too. The game is unwatchable for me outside of playoffs when they finally let them play defense.
What do you want from today's "analysts". He only takes data from 1996, but writes about the GOAT. I guess no one has explained to the author (Michael MacKelvie) what the acronym stands for, especially the letters "AT". Otherwise, he wouldn't claim the 1996-2023 data proves who the Greatest of All Time is. Or he just doesn't understand what "All Time" even means.
These NBA videos are ABSURDLY well- made. Like some of the best hoops content I've ever witnessed. Please keep making them! You've got a gift. *cut to 350 12 year olds telling me I'm glazing* 😅
@@AJ-sl7be uhhh no 4 rings isn’t bad, but 4 rings in 20 seasons isn’t great if you are trying to make the case that you’re the greatest basketball player of all time. You Lebron fan girls are so delicate
@@AJ-sl7be 🤦🏻my god….yes, they are a team accomplishment, which is why I prefaced my original comment with “he’s play with some of the best rosters in history.” And then you say “4 rings is bad?” Implying that those rings were LEBRON’S accomplishments, until I point out the proper context which validates my point, in which case you 180 to “championships don’t matter anyway they’re a team sport” …and you’re so oblivious to your logical inconsistencies you actually call *me* the bias one
@@MrKurtykurt Are you dumb? I said LeBron having 4 rings wasn't bad in response to your argument. I never said that LeBron was responsible for those rings. I never made an argument to begin with so how did I 180?
At first I was impressed by the data and the presentation, but at 14:05 now this part is just disingenuous. You yourself mentioned your data only goes as far back as 2005, yet on this part you dunked on Kobe specifically for not being on this list. Kobe joined the league in 1996 and had 3 of his rings before 2005, so of course he won't be in this list just like MJ or Kareem or Magic or Bill Russell isn't. Surely you/your team are not that ignorant to miss this, so this part seems more like a personal agenda of not liking Kobe and then talking s*** about him, while expecting the viewers to **actually** *be* this ignorant to miss this.
Effective field goal percent skews this entire video because it *obviously* rewards 3 point shooters. The 3 is not always needed in the clutch and this skews to this younger era. Poor analysis ruined this entire video. 5 seconds to go in game to tie or win: Lebron=20%, Jordan =50%, let's see some other. Horry?!
efg% is a lie,,, if nba now says that shooting from half court counts as 5 points. TO NERDS a player shooting 4/10 from half court is better than 9/10,,,when reality shows that the guy missing one shoot is way better.
absurdly biased comment, "the 3 is not always needed in the clutch" the 3 is the best possible thing in the clutch, you need a lot of points fast in the clutch, oldhead not happy that the stats dont back up jordan😂😂😂😂
@@UltraDucc JORDAN why JORDAN?? there are more than 20 players better than LEBRON..and since the 2000s you have also DIRK KOBE DUNCAN SHAQ CURRY LUKA JOKIC all better than LEBUM...
i like this metric so much. It puts a highlight on so many players who are often forgotten or underappreciated, especially the playoff stats. It’s hard to tell that a guy like Ray Allen is as good as he is when he isn’t putting up crazy numbers because he’s acting as a closer or someone who’s job is to create space for the better player, you can’t calculate that in box score without diving into the data tracking.