You Will Never Look at the NFL Draft the Same

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Ever wondered what the market efficiency is for the NFL draft? That is...how billion dollar organizations choose and trade their players, and whether or not it lines up with what the data/math says they should do?
The NFL Draft is a worldwide spectacle held once per year. A day where the success of a team hangs in the balance. One wrong move and you could be set back years behind the field, one great move and you could ensure success for many seasons to come.
With all this pressure on the draft and the success of a franchise in the balance, how do teams determine the value of these picks? How do they determine what is the best return for trades on current and future assets as well as active players?
Most importantly why do teams keep on making bad picks? The teams are billion-dollar organizations run and staffed by some of the brightest minds alive. Yet year after year teams make terrible franchise-altering choices around the draft. What causes teams to do this, and what could they be doing differently?
:00 The NFL Draft
2:28 Disruptive Draft Data
3:30 The Chart
4:45 Compensation & Performance Analysis
5:40 Draft “Skills”?
6:52 “Go Get Ur Guy”
9:54 Surprising Surplus Value
11:07 Causation Theories
14:49 Other Sports
15:20 Time
Citations
National Football League
Richard Thaler and Cade Massey Research Paper
www.nber.org/system/files/wor...
"Misbehaving" (book) by Richard Thaler
Pro Football Talk
#nfl #NLFDraft #nfltrades #nfloffseason #2023draft #2022Draft #1999Draft #peytonmanning #ryanleaf #rickywilliams #rg3 #MikeDitka #tombrady #tombradygoat #bryceyoung #carsonwentz #panthers #bears #patriots #buttfumble #marksanchez #nfltrade #nfltraderumors #nflplayoffs #draftbust #bust

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1 авг 2023

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Комментарии : 1,7 тыс.

@VictorMendoza-jy7ce 9 месяцев назад

Bro I just subscribed. You honestly one of the best content creators I have seen. I dont even watch football and I still watched the video from start to finish.

@michaelmackelvie 9 месяцев назад

Thank you man!

@DoPtRiGGa 9 месяцев назад

Yep this man is gonna blow up fast, beautiful editing, cool format and the most soothing fucking cadence and voice i've ever heard haha

@user-kj6be8sf3v 9 месяцев назад

Same here, i have no interest in football, yet youtube been recommending me smaller channels and they all have great production, love to see it.

@dominikranters1346 9 месяцев назад

Same again

@justinhebert5155 9 месяцев назад

@@Essalolthe point of the analogy was simply to illustrate that people often irrationally discount the future for the present because they are incentivized to do so by the system they are in.

@Nichrysalis 9 месяцев назад

There's a reason why teams like New England, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Seattle, and Baltimore are so sustainably successful. Consistently ensuring compensatory picks and always making sure to sacrifice some of their draft haul for the future draft haul pays huge dividends.

@geoffhoutman1557 9 месяцев назад

Yeah comp picks are the best. Pick 100 ish is full of great to serviceable players, for FREE.

@Revealingstorm. 9 месяцев назад

New england wasnt that successful of a franchise until around the time of Bledsoe

@paulgaither 9 месяцев назад

@@Revealingstorm.- Get some context. OP is obviously talking about the last 20-ish years. The Ravens were the Browns when Bledsoe was drafted.

@Revealingstorm. 9 месяцев назад

@@paulgaither suuurree

@MrMancreatedgod 9 месяцев назад

Actually "sacrificing" current draft haul for the future is a lateral to detrimental move. You don't really mean "sacrificing". That's not going to continuously keep your roster loaded

@josepht8746 9 месяцев назад

10:52 a big reason why late first round picks are better value than early first round picks is because the late rounders are going to good teams. Easier to perform well on a good team with better coaches, teammates, front office, culture, etc

@michaelmackelvie 9 месяцев назад

So I wondered the same thing (only so much you can share in a video) when first reading about all this...two things I found: 1. Higher picks have certainly performed better...but when you take into account the salary cap that the NFL has "value" takes on a different shape/meaning. 2. Thaler's data accounted for this potential bias...and did not weight a team's record into "value" or "performance". If anything...the findings are actually conservative to my point, as a portion (not the entirety) of the equation for "performance" was "games started"...and a player who goes to a bad team has a better chance to start...which would suggest that the decline could be even steeper if this bias was somehow adjusted for. Again, I wanted to share this because this is where my mind went initially as well...fortunately, the data controlled for it.

@BoardEntity 9 месяцев назад

@@michaelmackelviewhen you say it did not include team record in that bias i would argue that they probably should be looking at team record as a factor that greatly inflates the performance of prospects. The advantage of going to an established winning culture and learning from elite pros and a stable coaching staff is an outrageous advantage for later round picks in terms of development. On top of that just think about how in terms of production being on a good team helps you. If youre a wide receiver and youre drafted to a stable franchise with a veteran quarterback that isnt turning over half its coaching staff and having to teach an entirely new playbook to everyone on its team including you, you are obviously going to be much more likely to have better production. I dont want to undercut the value of stats here but unless im misunderstanding im fairly certain factoring record into that bias in some way probably would help this data more than hurt it

@PCIBALL 9 месяцев назад

Like the video, great points on the draft chart and all, but I think you should revisit your valuation of picks. You logic works were the draft compensation equivalent to the free market (i.e. free agency), but falls short in a closed market (I.E. the draft). Teams are working with financial constraints (the salary cap) as you mentioned, and drafted players are cheaper alternatives to what these players would go for in an open market (case and point, prior to the recent CBA changes, players like Matthew Stafford were paid as much as many of the highest paid players in the league). So comparing draft pick compensation to to production removes the most important value of the draft pick, that being the depressed salary. To illustrate, lets take Patrick Mahomes on his rookie deal at approx. $4M/year, and a theoretical player “Rick Homes” who has a performance value and a compensation both equal to 50% of Patrick Mahomes. Under this model, Patrick Mahomes and Rick Homes have an equal value. However, Patrick Mahomes had a market value of $45M/year (what he signed for on “open market”), so Mahomes’ “value generated” was $41M/year, whereas if Homes is exactly 1/2 of Mahomes, his market value would be $22.5M/year, making his “value generated “20.5M/year, showing that they are not equal, but in fact, Patrick Mahomes on a performance index, as well as a financial index, is worth twice as much as Homes, even though Mahomes’ rookie contract would pay him twice as much

@tomsnoxell8402 9 месяцев назад

@@michaelmackelvieexcellent point.

@benlowes8570 9 месяцев назад

@@BoardEntityif there was a significant advantage in going to winning teams you would also see spikes along the chart into the later rounds. By your logic a guy going at 58 is much more likely to succeed than the guy at 34. While there is a reason to say that going to a good team is an advantage, it’s not such an advantage that it effects the data in a super significant way.

@RaiderNation28 5 месяцев назад

The fact that the video was made 4 months ago and now you look at this in hindsight.. it's just absolutely hysterical comical what the Panthers have done 😂 because look at them now... just wow

@michaelmackelvie 5 месяцев назад

Lol you have to laugh about it...when I picked Bryce as an example and the thumbnail, would not have guessed they would be 1-10. Hope he can have a nice career, but it only bolsters the theme here...

@brbailey 5 месяцев назад

Tepper is the worst and mortgaged the Panthers future.

@peepeepoopoo3614 4 месяца назад

@@brbailey he’s even more the worst now somehow

@johncorn7905 4 месяца назад

@@peepeepoopoo3614😂 yup he’s going after the dan synder award for worst nfl owner

@cmann517 3 месяца назад

Btw the Bears have the 1st and 9th pick this year. They might pair a WR opposite of DJ Moore.

@jrm78 4 месяца назад

That Panthers trade for Bryce Young is looking disastrous for them right now. DJ Moore is a Pro Bowl receiver and they gave the Bears the #1 pick in the upcoming 2024 draft. Chicago can easily repeat the process by trading down and reaping another bounty of draft picks in return. Who knows? Maybe that team will be a complete mess and gift the Bears the #1 pick in the 2025 draft because they had their hearts set on getting one specific player.

@bytgfdsw2 4 месяца назад

And the pick right after Bryce Young? CJ Stroud who is leading the Texans to a playoff spot. Disastrous trade imo

@bignut6406 3 месяца назад

Epsically with Caleb most likely going 1st, I can definitely see teams making a dumb trade to Chicago just to get him.

@Lindseyfromgranite 3 месяца назад

Yeah if only the game was on the level

@phidostik 19 дней назад

I come from the future. Turns out, Panthers can love Bears.

@vanadium1603 9 месяцев назад

One thing I noticed, following the Seattle Seahawks the last decade, our front office really understands that first rounders are overvalued. With a few exceptions, we've always traded down the draft to secure more plentiful and cheaper rookies. Yes, we may miss out of the all star signings most years, but often times were able to find a few good players that fell down the draft that over preformed their round pick.

@jayclark1551 9 месяцев назад

There’s a reason the Seahawks have the most wins in the NFC over the last 10 years!

@nicholassmith6019 9 месяцев назад

Pittsburgh & New England have the same philosophy which is why they are so consistent.

@kimyona9746 9 месяцев назад

Seahawks drafted Tariq Woolen, I was so mad as a Cards fan as I had a third round grade on him

@joashaguilar8608 9 месяцев назад

A good reason is " we should pick better" or else that russell wilson 1 yard pass play to Lockette would be cherry on top of every 2-13 season

@cloutsteezo2269 9 месяцев назад

There’s a reason our hawks have been so competitive the last decade. They’ve taken what’s the biggest need. This past draft was the first time they’ve ever really went for best player available. Let’s see 🤷🏻‍♂️ I love what Pete and John have done over their time together. Go Hawks 💙💚

@KTF0 4 месяца назад

This actually made me understand the Herschel Walker trade more. Jimmy Johnson didnt have a 4 year window, he had a 10 year contract. He was invested in the long term success of the Cowboys (even tho it didn't end up yhst way). When he left they won their second Super Bowl with the youngest team in the league.

@nickbrizzi3104 7 месяцев назад

Data Analytics graduate here who also makes some videos (unrelated to analytics). 1. Dude this video is fire. The editing, graphics, audio quality, and script are all top notch. Also, your fit, and the books in the background pair for a very professional looking output. 2. The relative value of descending picks match up incredibly closely to your estimate. Almost never in statistics do you see this accurately measurable of an association. Good stuff.

@tombratcher6938 Месяц назад

You say that, but who are the Houston Texas? (But yeah, it's good stuff). Also, because he's an analytics nerd, he refers to will Levis as the top pick of round 2, even though he wasn't: he was the 33rd player picked, but the dolphins forfeited their r1 pick. WE SEE YOU. :-)

@pointOFimpact07 9 месяцев назад

Interesting piece. I think one critical aspect that is missed is that each team not only has a finite amount of money to spend, but also a finite number of players to spend it on (53 man roster). Even if the $ value proposition of a late first round pick may be higher, the value added to the team based on them only taking a single roster spot may balance out that equation.

@cfredtmbg 9 месяцев назад

I was scrolling through the comments to see if someone said this. I agree. To add that, going back to the two salesmen analogy, you can put to salesmen on the road or on the phone at the same time, but I can't put two QBs on the field at the same time. Also, rookie compensation is so tiny compared to the salary cap, the real value vs production argument should be saved for veterans and high dollar players.

@brlyjo 8 месяцев назад

Yup, the missing piece. If you stockpile picks, you won't be able to afford to keep them anyway so it will still be boom and bust. The best strategy is stay neutral until you find you have a special player or unit and then compliment them.

@joeferreti9442 8 месяцев назад

@@brlyjo Having picks is always good, you can trade them away if you don't need them.

@joeferreti9442 8 месяцев назад

I would also agree that the money paid for the draft picks is negligible.

@brlyjo 8 месяцев назад

@@joeferreti9442 good point. They're like money in the bank.

@mathlover5k 9 месяцев назад

To be fair, Wentz was a key contributor to the Eagles in their Super Bowl year. It's resulting a bit, but... you can't argue with a Super Bowl

@connornewcombe4319 9 месяцев назад

Howie also was able to get a first round pick out of him from the Colts, so we got value back in that respect too

@michaelmackelvie 9 месяцев назад

It's definitely arguable - I can understand your position...however, the key word here in your statement is "can't argue". Here's why it's hard for me to buy the Wentz trade - the Eagles won three playoff games (including a Super Bowl) without him...all this in combination with Wentz becoming average...then very below average (or, straight up "bad") in successive seasons...it's hard to believe that he was worth 5 draft picks in hindsight just to move up a few spots. I agree with you that it is debatable though - not as clear as others.

@mathlover5k 9 месяцев назад

@@michaelmackelvie I think you can reframe the question - Do you believe that the 5 draft picks relinquished (either by direct or indirect contribution through trades) would have elevated the Eagles to be in position to win a Super Bowl. I think that Wentz and his value above replacement that season led to the Eagles getting a bye, so you can partially attribute 1 “playoff game” to his contributions. I agree with the idea that the overall sum of contribution over many seasons will likely result in more wins. However, I think the question is, would those contributions increase the probability of the Eagles winning a Super Bowl more than Wentz did in his near-MVP season. I would hazard a guess and say no, but that is arguable. My point of “can’t argue with a Super Bowl” is just that it’s the ultimate goal of a team and a franchise, especially since the Eagles had never done it. It added so much to the brand and legacy that I find it hard to outright call the trade up a loss

@michaelmackelvie 9 месяцев назад

@@mathlover5k again, I think it is a fair argument - here's an interesting stat I found when trying to figure out if I would say Wentz was worth the trade: - Foles was 10-1 in his first eleven starts with the Eagles over the course of the two primary Wentz years...four of those wins being playoff games and a Super Bowl...if Wentz was so crucial to their success...why were they a Super Bowl champion, and 10-1 with Foles, a backup? - Again...when you combine this^ with the Wentz falloff...and additionally, the Foles falloff (both never played well after being apart of those historically good Eagles teams) it's difficult to swallow...IMO Wentz's breakout rookie season and Fole's Super Bowl run was the result of his surrounding aggregate... We have to consider the combination of these two points...

@timnor4803 9 месяцев назад

@@michaelmackelvie did foles get paid as much as wents to win that super bowl? Foles got paid more when he left Philly... lower production due to injury... would be interesting to see how their productivity compares.

@hectorwatt9712 9 месяцев назад

I also think that the quarterback trades and the higher value of top picks is a bit skewed because of how much QBs are over drafted. They are picked so high because if you hit on a qb your franchise can be set for years. AR wasn’t the 4th best in the class, Tre Lance wasn’t 3rd and even Mac Jones wasn’t close to 15th. This hurts the value at the top pics because guys who should be late second rounders get drafted insanely high

@pace1195 9 месяцев назад

Great point. If a handful of players (especially QBs) go way above where they should get drafted based on talent, the late first round picks should have been selected by the worst teams in the top of the second round instead of by the best teams in the late first round. Edit: Once the teams get out of the first 2-3 rounds, player talent follows an average curve thanks to the millions of dollars spent on scouts evaluating talent in the later rounds. Some teams reach for talent. Others with better records let the best guys fall to them late in the first round for less compensation vs. talent because some teams over reached.

@mattlong4014 9 месяцев назад

QB is the most important position to a teams success in any sport. So you are very correct. This dude refuses to provide any context at all

@jkrasney1 9 месяцев назад

Each of the QBs chosen in the first round of the 2023 draft will fail. The worst QB will be Anthony Richardson, who barely played one full season of college football at the University of Florida. Although the Trey Lance selection by the 49ers may have been the more laughable pick. Similar to Richardson, Lance played one season of college football at North Dakota State University, and the 49ers traded three first round picks for him. Unbelievable!

@UnseenDrifter 9 месяцев назад

Yeah I agree with this whole heartedly not taking positional value in to consideration does a disservice to the teams making these trades. Also not taking into account how much the game has changed over the years make old trade seem ridiculous at todays standards look at RB value now versus then.

@KindredBrujah 7 месяцев назад

@@mattlong4014None of what he said affects this at all - he compared position to position.

@northdakotagamer 7 месяцев назад

One thing to note about trading down is that since you only have so much playing time available, acquiring 1 superstar player can help your team more than 2 really good players at a given position. It’s easier to find superstars when you’re pool of players is every player instead of every player minus whatever number are already taken. Often times bad teams are bad because their personnel department is bad and will often misuse top picks

@jodybrown4956 7 месяцев назад

Yes Arizona Cardinals should consider this mandatory viewing as a organization Bidwell family General Managers have consistently failed at every possibly opertunity to improve entirely not accidental massive incompetence.

@mattbalfe2983 6 месяцев назад

That's why good teams will move up at times and it makes sense to do so when you have a deep team with a lot of picks. The 49'ers moving up for Trey Lance is an example, sure it didn't work out, but they have the talent level to afford to take that risk. Same deal with the Chiefs when they moved up for Mahomes, that time they won the lottery on top of the talent and coaching they already had.

@paulgaither 3 месяца назад

@mattbalfe2983 - To add, we recall that the 49ers also moved up to get WR Brandon Aiyuk before the Packers, which is paying off. Brock Purdy's success is overcoming the Lance trade. In the end, the goal was to get a talented QB to run the offense and Brock was an MVP candidate until Christmas.

@virajs.8864 9 месяцев назад

I think positional value plays a factor here. Hitting on an elite QB is franchise changing.

@blehbleh9283 8 месяцев назад

See: the last 30 years of the Packers I do think it affects your draft strategy and I think Green Bay's practice of sitting the rookie for a couple years led to something interesting wrt draft strategy

@williamzame3708 4 месяца назад

Only if you have complementary players - especially a decent offensive line, so that your QB stays upright and is not sacked 6 times/game.

@kyledabearsfan 9 месяцев назад

As a Bears fan, I think this was just the universe throwing us a bone for once in a long while. Lovie Smith never gave up on the Bears. Also, loved the video, it was very well scripted.

@nangmung772 9 месяцев назад

We need to build him a statue at Soldier Field.

@OlinKreutzRules 9 месяцев назад

Right!!!!! I genuinely believe that Young and Carolina will have a very bright future together…….as long as that begins in 2025 lol. Well done, Homie. Look forward to checking out more of your stuff. I definitely hit that subscribe button. ✌🏻 I’m so effing excited that football is back TONIGHT!!!! Even though they’re not playing tonight…..🐻⬇️ Let’s go!!!!

@joashaguilar8608 9 месяцев назад

Edit: Bers fans still having nightmares about passing up Mahomes and instead picked up a Cartoon NVP

@guibblegabble1280 9 месяцев назад

The bears will be saying they should've traded fields and kept young this time next year. I promise you.

@2rare2die26 9 месяцев назад

As a fellow bears fan, I petition for a Lovie statue outside Soldier field. Took us to our last super bowl and gave us that 1st overall pick. GOAT modern bears coach

@TIOalc55 9 месяцев назад

Was not expecting to find such a well put together and thought out video with this amount of views. Excellent video!

@michaelmackelvie 9 месяцев назад

Thank you! Means a lot...the research takes a lot of time, and the editing can be soul-sucking to make it an enjoyable 10-15 min experience, but comments like this make it worth it. Really appreciate that...

@christophermilne6563 9 месяцев назад

For real tho. Stumbled along it in my recommended and thought I would change off of it after a few minutes but little did I know I stumbled along a highly educational video that hooked me in immediately. Love the channel. Definetly keeping an eye out now for future vids.

@DuncansTravels 9 месяцев назад

This feels like the type of video that is bound to really pop off. Everyone loves the draft.

@chriskuhn6130 9 месяцев назад

Totally agreed, first video I've seen from him but I'll definitely check out more! On top of that I see a lane where he could really look at the financial value of sports to bring in more viewers. After seeing the most popular videos seem to be in helping with college finance, I'm 32 and not planning on going to college again. I'll watch a thousand videos of this quality with this level of production in a more, relevant to me slant.

@RajuDhesi 9 месяцев назад

Had the exact same thought, was expecting it to be a podcast clip type thing

@lucasborja3797 9 месяцев назад

Carson Wentz trade up was a success, especially comparing it to Jared Goff, Eagles won a SB partly due to his performance in 2017 and he was a good QB until 2020 to then he got traded for a haul that played a massive role into getting back to the SB. So definitely not the failure it’s portrayed here

@MrAndrewaziz 8 месяцев назад

Precisely! It's a shame that he was never the same player after his knee injury (and same can be said of RG3 to be honest) but at least Wentz was pivotal in a superbowl team even if he wasn't the guy who took them all the way

@COMMENTOR1313 8 месяцев назад

@@MrAndrewaziz It wasn’t the knee injury. It was Howie Rosemans inability to get him a decent WR. The WRs were always injured or couldn’t catch. Dude took a practice squad of WRs to the playoffs.

@batti591 8 месяцев назад

@@COMMENTOR1313 His 2019 performance is probably one of more interesting quarterback seasons, all to get goobma-stomped by Jadeon Clowney in his first playoff snap

@COMMENTOR1313 8 месяцев назад

@@batti591 illegal hit won the Seahawks that game. Then only for the Eagles to draft Jalen Reagor instead of Justin Jefferson 3 months later. Hurts gets the have AJ Brown and Devonte Smithh all Wentz got was Nelson Agholor, broken Alshon Jeffrey, And Jalen Reagor

@EZR725 8 месяцев назад

Compared to Jared Goff????? You mean the guy who actually played in his team's SB run and is still a current starter?

@InstinctVSM 8 месяцев назад

The video production on this video is insane for how small your channel is, it’s so well put together and you delivered perfectly, that it can get someone that rarely watches football be so invested in it :) great job Michael

@michaelmackelvie 8 месяцев назад

Thank you so much!!

@FREEDOM_OR_DEATH_ 4 месяца назад

I disagree. I think this video sucks. The jokes fall flat and as a guy who loves football I really found myself thinking just get to the point. It's not often I can't get through a 15 minute video but here I am at the 5 minute mark wondering will this guy just get on with it?

@reep4 9 месяцев назад

This video was produced with such amazing quality. It honestly felt like watching a Jon Bois video. Keep up the great work! I'm excited to see what you put out next!

@michaelmackelvie 9 месяцев назад

Thank you!

@xandervick3594 9 месяцев назад

KEEP MAKING SPORTS CONTENT, ur really good at it

@larry_ellison 9 месяцев назад

Very true well produced

@samaustin8690 3 месяца назад

Insulting to compare Bois to this clown.

@konnorkinser9468 9 месяцев назад

The lower value of early 1st rounders is directly linked to the teams picking high in the draft having huge needs. They are usually forced into taking a QB, Edge, or OT that high because it’s the biggest need and they tend to draft the best at that position but that player may not be the best player overall. That’s why you see teams picking later in round one get a more valuable pick because they can draft BPA with a lower salary slot. Goff and Wentz weren’t the best players available that year it was Joey Bosa, Jalen Ramsey, and Ezekiel Elliott were better prospects but the rams and eagles traded up because need outweighed talent and they couldn’t wait in their eyes. The 2016 draft was one especially packed with high value players after the first round so they missed on even more premium talent than usual. Chris Jones, Kenny Clark, King Henry, Mike Thomas, Tyreek Hill, Dak Prescot, Matt Judon and many others.

@paulmysliborski4832 9 месяцев назад

I could not agree more. You said it all.

@faveology 9 месяцев назад

I think the owner and fans matter as well, right? Some owners and fans are more patient. That allows a coach to build for the future (i.e. we may do bad for a couple years, but then we will start turning this around). Vs fans and owners who are impatient and overvaluing the talent of their team. That makes coaches and GMs make rash decisions that either pan out or they just end up unemployed lol

@douglasmueller7268 9 месяцев назад

We could also argue that Wentz pre injury was on his way to an MVP top 3 votes. Super Bowl and the team doing well into his extension. After injury not so much

@sethtenrec 7 месяцев назад

@@douglasmueller7268 either way, even if Wentz was as good as Mahomes, that’s still just one quarterback out of ten. The point still stands.

@AdamKlownzinger 8 месяцев назад

Late first round picks are tremendous value especially when you’re an organizationally strong team going after players FROM strong organizations. I think of Tre White going from LSU to Buffalo or Donta Hightower going from Alabama to New England.

@ashtondonaghy1154 5 месяцев назад

The ending quote gave me chills. Not only did you put together an enticing masterpiece of a video, you ended it with a generalized quote and or lesson that tied to it perfectly. I don't know if I needed to hear that right now, but I am gonna write it down and look at it from time to time to remember the principle. Thank you, you have earned yourself a like and sub

@tylerwillis1961 9 месяцев назад

12:28 Average NFL GM tenure being 2.1 years seemed impossibly short, so I ran the numbers. It's 7.4 years Arizona Cardinals: Monti Ossenfort, hired 1/26/23 (0.5 years) Atlanta Falcons: Terry Fontenot, hired 1/19/21 (2.5 years) Baltimore Ravens: Eric DeCosta, hired 1/11/19 (4.6 years) Buffalo Bills: Brandon Beane, hired 5/9/17 (6.2 years) Carolina Panthers: Scott Fitterer, hired 1/14/21 (2.6 years) Chicago Bears: Ryan Poles, hired 1/25/22 (1.5 years) Cincinnati Bengals: Duke Tobin, hired 1/1/02 (21.6 years) Cleveland Browns: Andrew Berry, hired 1/27/20 (3.5 years) Dallas Cowboys: Jerry Jones, hired 1/25/89 (34.5 years) Denver Broncos: George Paton, hired 1/13/21 (2.6 years) Detroit Lions: Brad Holmes, hired 1/14/21 (2.6 years) Green Bay Packers: Brian Gutekunst, hired 1/8/18 (5.6 years) Houston Texans: Nick Caserio, hired 1/7/21 (2.6 years) Indianapolis Colts: Chris Ballard, hired 1/19/17 (6.5 years) Jacksonville Jaguars: Trent Baalke, hired 1/21/21 (2.5 years) Kansas City Chiefs: Brett Veach, hired 7/10/17 (6.1 years) Las Vegas Raiders: Dave Ziegler, hired 1/30/22 (1.5 years) Los Angeles Chargers: Tom Telesco, hired 1/9/13 (10.6 years) Los Angeles Rams: Les Snead, hired 1/10/12 (11.6 years) Minnesota Vikings: Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, hired 1/26/22 (1.5 years) Miami Dolphins: Chris Grier, hired 1/4/16 (7.6 years) New England Patriots: Bill Belichick, hired 1/27/00 (23.5 years) New Orleans Saints: Mickey Loomis, hired 1/1/02 (21.6 years) New York Giants: Joe Schoen, hired 1/21/22 (1.5 years) New York Jets: Joe Douglas, hired 6/7/19 (4.2 years) Pittsburgh Steelers: Omar Khan, hired 5/25/22 (1.2 years) Philadelphia Eagles: Howie Roseman, hired 1/29/10 (13.5 years) San Francisco 49ers: John Lynch, hired 1/29/17 (6.5 years) Seattle Seahawks: John Schneider, hired 1/18/10 (13.6 years) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jason Licht, hired 1/21/14 (9.5 years) Tennessee Titans: Ran Carthon, hired 1/18/23 (0.5 years) Washington Commanders: Martin Mayhew, hired 1/21/21 (2.5 years)

@warpeace8891 4 месяца назад

Love your work, thank you for your efforts to find the truth among the bs.

@samgatiru4223 27 дней назад

I think he got rid of the ones like bill and jerry

@ricedaddy88 9 месяцев назад

Don't forget that one of the biggest reasons the Cowboys trading Herschel Walker was such highway robbery was that the players they also got, they weren't actually wanting, they wanted to potential draft picks they could get for them. Jesse Solomon got them a 1st round pick in 1991, David Howard got them Minnesota's 2nd round pick in 1991, Issiac Holt got them the 1992 1st round pick, trading Darrin Nelson got them the 2nd round in 1992, and Alex Stewart got them the 3rd round in 1992. All these pics were basically "stolen" from Minnesota.

@cartl1907 7 месяцев назад

What a great video. Keep up the great work man!

@wesleythompson5241 9 месяцев назад

How does this only have 2k likes and 50k views? It was incredibly crafted and helped create a new narrative on the concept of building strong teams, while linking it to non football analogies.

@trentonlivingston9903 9 месяцев назад

Is there anything to the idea that late 1st round picks offer more value because they go to better performing teams, and therefore do not have the pressure of being their new team's savior?

@michaelmackelvie 9 месяцев назад

answered this at length in one of the comments above...

@bowlchamps37 9 месяцев назад

Actually, if you go to a better team, your value is less, if you e.g. take winshare as an indicator. The average winshare among top5 picks since 2002 is around 9 times higher than the winshare of picks 28-32.

@crushedscouter9522 9 месяцев назад

@@bowlchamps37winshare is usually worthless in context

@keith6706 3 месяца назад

Later picks often have another advantage aside from going to better performing teams: they're often going to teams that aren't desperate to fill that position which gives them time to develop without the pressure of having everything rest on their shoulders. While you can get examples like CJ Stroud where this can work, you're probably more likely to find success where you give them time. Love sat behind Rogers for a few years, just as Rogers backed up Favre for a few years, Brady sat behind Bledsoe, and so on.

@joshuastoltzfus4910 7 месяцев назад

Its moments like this I wish youtube had a super like button. Amazing.

@cooperbuttery6476 3 месяца назад

actually astonishing vid, good job man

@arcadius853 9 месяцев назад

criminally underrated video. needs more views, and it did make me look at the NFL draft differently

@acetreadwell291 9 месяцев назад

i’m not sure how this video came up on my recommended but i’m so glad it did. Just based on the quality of content i’m shocked at how few subs you have compared to the bangers you’re putting out. keep at it champ, you’re bound to blow up. you’ve earned yourself a new subscriber (and i’m sure many more to come) TOP TIER CONTENT.

@MatthewEaton 9 месяцев назад

It would be interesting to see where the graph plays out over time regarding "Team Needs" (glaring talent missing from the team) vs. "Team Wants" (teams who have a defined player at the position). Often said the team that takes the best available talent instead of the need will fair better (A lot of survivor bias implied in that statement), but the mantra still clings to this day. it also can play into the present day mindset of all owners and GMs to survive instead of thrive. Great stuff, appreciate the insight!

@nealcarlson8128 9 месяцев назад

Really good video. Does a good job describing what we sort of already know - but adds good examples and mentions all different aspects that we don't often think about like salary implications and owner age. I'm surprised you have so few subscribers, but you gained another one just now.

@epelly3 9 месяцев назад

I was not expecting to receive much needed life advice from a video about the NFL draft, but I must say, this video is a work of art

@njones339skinnymini 9 месяцев назад

Each video is better than the last such a fun change of pace to watch

@Dax1x 7 месяцев назад

This video is awesome, well done! I love the line at the end :)

@placeholderchannel113 13 дней назад

Amazing video man. Very good narration and analysis. I've been thinking about this stuff a lot now that the 2024 draft just happened

@isaiahwilliams7114 9 месяцев назад

Bro you are going to be an absolute PILLAR to the RU-vid sports documentary world if you continue in this lane. All around great video, and I watch these types of videos all day long across so many different channels. This is the only channel I chose to subscribe to after watching this video. Also love the message at the end! Needed that!

@evanblythe2283 8 месяцев назад

I can't stand the slow dramatic delivery. Drama student talking FB. come on man. The content is good.

@fuckgoogle6091 6 месяцев назад

Lol ESPN with its trillion dollar budget can’t make content this informative 🤣

@crazestyle83 Месяц назад

Preach! They got famous, popular, then lazy. 😂

@Rsorel80 19 дней назад

They could, they just don’t want to

@ASprout 9 месяцев назад

This video is insanely high quality, great job man! Hope you can grow a ton and keep up the fantastic work!

@bradleyhamner 4 месяца назад

Well done on this video and congrats to YT for showing this in my feed!

@jakedennen3969 9 месяцев назад

This was an enjoyable and very well made video. Keep grinding brotha. I can see a lot of potential out of this channel. 🤙🏻

@Chr010 8 месяцев назад

What an amazing breakdown. Looking forward to see more of your videos! And I can see guys like Zay Flowers having a huge impact on the their teams regardless of their draft position. The Panthers might regret their move later

@ZtehGreat 9 месяцев назад

Killer video man! Format and cuts had me on the edge of my seat!

@Ancestry710 27 дней назад

Great video, truly thought provoking. Thank you for this.

@cannongardner2658 9 месяцев назад

I have been baffled by teams moving up and giving up so much for QBs that don't even meet the eye test. Glad to see the data backs up my feelings towards all this.

@jacksonbond5336 9 месяцев назад

Maybe my second comment ever… this is phenomenal content. Keep up the good work! I look forward to more videos! This was incredibly interesting and extending the findings of your research beyond the NFL and into everyday life was very profound.

@abajindar 9 месяцев назад

This was great! Please make more NFL videos - I loved your analysis and the graphics/animations used during this!

@rjc709 9 месяцев назад

This is an amazing video produced with great quality! It got me thinking about the draft in different way. Thanks so much for making this!

@GloveStudy 8 месяцев назад

Amazing video. Was expecting you to have way more subscribers with how well made it was! Another thing that probably amplify the present bias is that to trade down in the draft, you only need one buyer. 30 teams could be following perfectly logic thinking, but if there's one team that has an owner a little to desperate to win now, they can be exploited.

@michaelmackelvie 8 месяцев назад

Yes! I just mentioned this the other day…each year, it’s 1-2 teams acting irrational (at least if we follow Thaler’s data here)…all it takes is one emotional/desperate team…

@TobyCook85 9 месяцев назад

Great video with great story-telling capabilities :) My only argument I would bring in to tackle the conclusion that later first round picks are better than the early ones is: The first picks are usually taken out by teams that have been horrible in the last season and are rebulidung. That's a rougher environment for rookies than getting into a team that was successful in the season before. Just think of Lamar Jackson. If he had been taken by a team without an O-line and a defense that would have forced him to rely on the passing game from the get go, he maybe would just have been a rookie and out of the league by now.

@x-productions5456 7 месяцев назад

Great video, very interesting subject. Also I have to say you have an amazing voice 👏

@patricksnow3727 8 месяцев назад

This is incredible. Great analysis and production value. Thoroughly enjoyed!

@seancrabtree8109 9 месяцев назад

I was actually shocked when I saw that this video had under 1k views and that you have 1k subs. The production is excellent and is easily worthy of 100k views and many more subs. Keep up the fantastic work.

@johnspreewell2223 9 месяцев назад

How do you not have more subscribers, this is great

@michaelmackelvie 9 месяцев назад

Thank you! These vids take a ton of research, planning, and editing...much appreciated.

@chadlewis6574 3 месяца назад

Jim, 100% agree, I hardly ever watch prediction videos due to no follow-up. I had not watched your previous prediction video, but good job on 5 for 6. The one that was wrong says a lot for the growth of the hobby.

@Bold_and_Brash11 9 месяцев назад

This channel rocks! Just got recommended this video but went back watched a few more and subbed. Keep up the good work.

@jarretberenson1214 8 месяцев назад

This was a great value. The only issue that I have is the idea that money is finite in the NFL. The Rams won a Super Bowl by basically ignoring the salary cap. The Eagles also built a contender and resigned Jalen Hurts with a deferred cap hit. With the cap going up, teams can always restructure deals and push cap problems very far into the future where they will have less of a negative impact (a $50 million cap hit will be a lower percentage of the total cap in the future). Based on these factors, I think that it is fair to value performance as more important than compensation.

@removedot 8 месяцев назад

this is just another example of the problem shown here. That is usually overvaluing the present at the cost of the future.

@jarretberenson1214 8 месяцев назад

@@removedot I’m no expert on the salary cap, but my understanding is that you can push cap hits back forever as long as you are willing to pay a ton of actual money. As far as I understand, you can push the cap back infinitely into the future and never need to actually deal with it as long as your pockets are deep enough. Even if this is wrong, the cap will certainly go up in the future. A 30 million cap hit at QB was a lot 5 years ago, and now QBs are worth 50 million. It is better to take today’s cap hits in the future because it will be a lower percentage of the future cap.

@removedot 8 месяцев назад

@@jarretberenson1214 you can push it back, but you can't spend money to get around it, and you have to pay it at some point. Yes it is in some ways better to pay it later assuming the cap will increase (but the 1st COVID year causing a decrease really hit some teams). But you are still damaging you chances in the future when you have dead cap for nothing and the other teams don't. The Saints have really done themselves in and Tampa Bay isn't looking so hot either; their only saving grace is they are in the same division

@hovardlee 9 месяцев назад

The only problem with high picks is that you need them for a qb. Of course nothing is guaranted but it is about chances of taking any prospect.

@carrite 9 месяцев назад

There's a lot of group think with the quarterbacks. It's such a crap shoot. There are quality NFL QBs to be had outside of the top of the first round, but it finding them is hard since the skill set needed to perform the position well is not just physical and thus easily measurable, but rather is subtle and developed over time through study. Personality plays a big part.

@armadillolover99 8 месяцев назад

@@carrite There is always the potential for quality QBs in every round, but generally the guys who eventually become top-10 QBs (which I would argue is the most important thing to any team for sustained success) or even top 20 are picked in the first 2 rounds. There will always be the outliers like Brady or Kirk Cousins or Brock Purdy but the vast majority of QBs taken after the second round have a ceiling of “solid backup”. The only current starters who I would consider at least decent who weren’t picked in the first two rounds are Purdy, Cousins, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson (who only fell to the third round because he was considered “too small” at the time, something that teams have stopped caring so much about) and Sam Howell.

@isaacmason8421 9 месяцев назад

Super cool video! The content was super interesting and your pace and tone were great!

@DevDawg323 7 месяцев назад

As someone who works with analytics every day, I have to say that I absolutely love this video! Subscribed and really hope your channel blows up because of this!

@johnchedsey1306 9 месяцев назад

I look at the NFL draft as a bunch of lottery tickets, with certain tickets having a higher chance of a huge payoff. And some teams seem much better at finding value with tickets that should have a lower chance of the huge payout (ie: Seattle somehow finding Richard Sherman and Russell Wilson in later rounds). But having more lottery tickets to play gives you more chances to win.

@Pr0t4t0 9 месяцев назад

There is a reason to trade up, and it’s if you need a generational talent at positions like QB, OT, or DE. These are typically the first few picks off the board and the pickings in those positions afterward are either solid rotational guys (as far as OT and DE goes) or riskier boom-or-bust picks.

@ed-gw3ov 8 месяцев назад

There are no 100% generational talent guarantees. JaMarcus Russell, Tony Mandarich, Ryan Leaf, Charles Rogers, Brian Bosworth........just a few examples.

@jacjr6193 6 месяцев назад

⁠@@ed-gw3ovcorrect there are no guarantees but the point still stands. If you land a Peyton Manning, Trent Williams, or Von Miller to be one of your franchise cornerstones to build around it can be worth it. It’s a risk for sure but sometimes talent can make the risk worth it.

@ed-gw3ov 6 месяцев назад

@@jacjr6193 For every so called generational player, can't miss guy. The fact still remains it's very much a crap shoot, many of those generational player never make it to anything more than average at best. You can land those talents like Tyreek Hill, the 165th overall pick for the Chiefs in 2016. 2011 the Seattle Seahawks used the 154th pick on cornerback Richard Sherman. 146th pick of the 2017 NFL Draft, the San Francisco 49ers selected George Kittle. I'll leave out the late 1st round or second round gems. The above are just a few examples of great players not taken in the top 5. And Mitch Trubisky was picked ahead of Patrick Mahomes.......I'd argue Mahomes is a generational talent taken at #10, Trubisky is a journeymen QB.......a Just shows there's really no magic formula....luck is part of the game as is where a player is drafted and who is their coaches. Anyway....take care...it's all just a game

@MajorCoach21 4 месяца назад

Wow. This was great! Thanks man!

@FranklinSteele 9 месяцев назад

I don't really care about football but am an avid NHL fan... so glad I watched this. Subbed. Keep up the great work. Not just anyone can make strangers care about things they don't usually care about.

@smnbrgss 9 месяцев назад

It’d be interesting to look at the average time to first SB win for a GM for those that have been the GM for a team 5-10+ compared to the number of GMs have won within the first 3-5 years.

@JanstonCordell 9 месяцев назад

Great video! I wonder if the league rules were updated so that GMs were locked into 10 year contracts, would that ease the negative incentives affecting team-building..?

@angryman132 7 месяцев назад

No it would just be a larger severance package when they fire them

@BrianWilliams-op6lv 6 месяцев назад

I did not expect to watch this video and come out with a better understanding of concepts from my microeconomics class

@huggeebear 9 месяцев назад

This is the only video of yours that I have ever watched, and I subscribed halfway through. Stellar job my guy. Looking forward to more 👍🏿

@KeithWeast 9 месяцев назад

The moment Martha handed the Lions to Sheila they’ve been looking to the future. I hope we’re all here for it

@eugenepoon 9 месяцев назад

7:20 There's clear selection bias here, cutting it off at "top 5" The Bills traded up to get "their guy" in Josh Allen, the Chiefs did so for Patrick Mahomes. Both these teams gave up a decent haul to get their guy. The Bills actually had an even bigger deal to trade up with Denver to get Josh Allen, so they were clearly committed to trading into the arbitrary "top 5" range. (Denver backed out, NOT Buffalo) You have to consider the starting points, going from 3>2 is a smaller commitment than going from the 20s into the top 10 With hindsight goggles, in all those "bad" cases of the teams trading up to get their guy the issue is with player evaluation NOT the fact that they sold the house (again, what if they'd drafted an Allen/Mahomes type of player instead?) If Goff was an Allen/Mahomes/Herbert/Burrow type of player, are we seriously going to lose sleep over: Derrick Henry (a low value position), Corey Davis (a mid at best WR), Jack Conklin (capable but not great starter, with injury issues now)? Again, it's about talent evaluation, or lack thereof 10:49 Well yea, early first round picks more often go to bad teams and bad organisations. Football is a team sport and having a better roster and coaches around you is often more conducive for better performances. This is notion is further pronounced for QBs (your best bet is always to have a "good" team trade up and draft you, Allen/Mahomes/Burrow would have most likely found less success at the Browns) Looking at the opposite for perspective, I'd argue DL is the least team dependant position, especially for surface level box score production as pass rush is mostly about winning your 1 on 1s (there still is a need for a good support system around, but comparatively less than QB and other positions). The best DL in the league now were all highly invested in for their drafts, with the exception of Maxx Crosby who is a unicorn, TJ Watt is a semi-unicorn being drafted in the late FIRST ROUND. Garrett (1st overall), Bosas (2nd and 3rd overall), Parsons (drafted as LB at 12th), Aaron Donald (13th), Brian Burns (16th), Dexter Lawrence (17th), Vita Vea (12th), Aidan Hutchinson had a decent rookie year but still too early to call (2nd overall) In response to the general salary point: The difference in rookie contract salaries is a bit overstated. Rookie contracts are smaller and cost controlled, vs "veteran" contracts. Therefore while there is a numerical difference due to draft positions, that does not move the needle at all. Whatever draft position it may be, the KEY COMPARISON IS VERSUS A VETERAN 2ND CONTRACT PLAYER OF THE SAME POSITION Case in point: QBs are often the highest drafted positions. A franchise QB is now in the range of making 45-55m per year, Bryce Young is making less than 9.5m/year. Nobody is going to put the cart in front of the horse and worry about saving those metaphorical pennies as to "oh no, if only we could get Bryce Young at 8m, 7m!" GMs don't care about that (rightly so) because the ACTUAL savings are already huge For context, running back is the only position (outside of specialists) where Bryce would be able to crack into the top among his peers salarywise Appreciate the work and effort, just wanted to offer some healthy rebuttal and provide some needed context that I felt was missing.

@jzam3220 11 дней назад

This video takes me back to the good ol Jon Bois days. Great stuff

@sauvikbanerjee3923 8 месяцев назад

There’s a lack of such honest and detailed sporting content on the internet… hope we get more videos like this from you!!

@glennscott8622 9 месяцев назад

Very well done. A few slight counter points are that the number of roster slots is limited and cut players add their signing bonus to your dead money expense. Also, players have an experience arch that requires game snaps, so they underperform their peak initially. Also good teams (correlated to better player development) are affecting performance of those selected in the late 1st and 2nd rounds; 20 of the 42 picks from 23 - 64 are going to Top-10 teams. That said, you nailed it.

@seasidejoe9037 9 месяцев назад

You have shared some interesting thoughts and data on the draft. I would just add that for an even more balanced view on the risk of trading up, you would include the Bills trading up for Josh Allen, the Chiefs trading up for Patrick Mahomes, the Texans trading up for Deshaun Watson. I mean the Chiefs are dominating a historically talented conference because of a draft trade up and I dont see a reason to cut him out because he was 10th. He would be included if he was 6th? Allen was 7th and he’s transformed an awful franchise. A lot of the examples of QB busts were actually QBs who had plenty of red flags and were clear miscalculations of ownership misjudgment-or Mike Ditka as you say-and it’s a case by case basis. If you were betting your job on one player, Bryce Young might win you over because of how special you find him to be and many evaluators may only see him and Trevor Lawrence as the only elite QB prospects of the past 5 years so it’s not as easy to say that because Carson Wentz exists, don’t make a push for Young. That’s where using historical numbers can screw up logic. (As you say, the Jimmy Johnson chart was historical data and not meant to actually be used to make decisions)

@wrlprchnx 9 месяцев назад

I think the bias towards high draft pick quarterbacks makes it difficult to fully evaluate - Sure Mahones and Allen are generational talents, but so was Brady (and he was a 7th round pick) - It's relatively uncommon for a low draft pick quarterback to be given a chance in the current NFL (1st rounders get constantly cycled through teams)

@prophettoloss 9 месяцев назад

totally agree. i would love a follow up video showing how the teams who trade up for a 6-10 spot do compared to the examples in this video. maybe study the texans who should have gotten good value from the watson trade. but great video. def subscribed.

@garrettgodfrey2762 4 месяца назад

Amazing video! Wow. I would love to see you talk statistics in all sorts of sports and life situations. So interesting man, thank you for making these

@ThatOneGuyEef 9 месяцев назад

Loved this video! The editing style is crisp and well thought out!

@PriceySweater 9 месяцев назад

How have you not blown up already? Great video and quality - keep crushing it.

@rx1026 9 месяцев назад

Love this video, remember when the Ravens traded Philly Miles Sanders, Dallas Geodert, and Avonte Maddox for Lamar Jackson? I think that trade was well worth for the Ravens

@aidansilli4257 9 месяцев назад

Worked out for Philly too

@vinpaz2379 9 месяцев назад

Lamar wasn’t drafted into the top 5 he was a late first rounder not the same thing

@lars611farmer3 9 месяцев назад

With drafting a QB late in round 1, you also want the fifth year of control on the rookie contract. He also developed into what everyone hoped for or even more and is an above average starting qb, so they did it right imo.

@Batmann29 9 месяцев назад

Wow this some amazing storytelling and production. Just subbed!

@yoXavierrr 6 месяцев назад

Watched such an amazing video to realize you only had 11k subs, should be way more I was expecting like 1mil plus keep this up and you will seriously get there one day wonderful vid!

@kimmackelvie117 9 месяцев назад

Should I ask for a raise? Or be concerned about the next hire taking part of my list. 😮

@walterburnett5784 Месяц назад

this aged extremely well

@cableg01 9 месяцев назад

Subscribed - one of the best RU-vid vids I’ve seen on any subject.

@JMully57 9 месяцев назад

Late round picks have less pressure, a better team (most of the time), more to prove. Its a recipe for success compared to the high pressure stakes top 30 picks get. This was a phenomenal video and wow how do you only have 5k subs your videos are amazing🙌

@pacocowell1232 9 месяцев назад

Though some of the points are valid, YOU'RE MISSING THE BIG PICTURE in that players on their rookie contrat are making soooo much less than players with similar production playing on later contracts. Teams are trying to get a starting caliber qb like Joe Burrow, who's making about 9 million a year, or Tua Tagovailoa, who's making about 7 million a year. Both were selected in the top 5 picks of the draft and contribute to their team's being contenders because their production is similar to quarterbacks that are making 35 to 50 million per year. Really, the couple million a year more they're making because of being a higher draft pick is insignificant compared to how much they're saving the team.

@daveSoupy 9 месяцев назад

Wentz was key to getting the Eagles to a Super Bowl. We wouldn't have gotten there without him.

@johnchedsey1306 9 месяцев назад

Wentz is a strange case. He was great till he suddenly wasn't. Really don't know what to make of his career now.

@daveSoupy 9 месяцев назад

@@johnchedsey1306 Clowney didn’t help. I do think his ego got in the way after Nick came in and everyone loved him in a way he wasn’t.

@COMMENTOR1313 8 месяцев назад

@@johnchedsey1306 Eagles couldn’t get him a good Wr. All he got were ones that couldn’t catch or get separation.

@melodymaker135 5 месяцев назад

Excellent video and channel. One other thought on the point made around 11:00. Those late-first-round picks might be wonderfully undervalued for some very mathy/structural reason….. or perhaps it’s because they’re being made by the smart teams who won a lot the previous year.

@flyhighlow3 9 месяцев назад

Great video. High quality and informative. Keep it up 👍🏼

@professorwigginslectures3808 9 месяцев назад

Herschel Walker was great at his best, but Jerry Burns had little use for an OL-sized RB in that offense and allegedly, the ownership left Burns out of the loop as they traded away his team for a guy he never planned to build an offense around. There's also the factor that Walker was in his 7th year as a RB and had already peaked. The Vikings were insane to make this move, one of the stupidest decisions in pro sports history.

@patrickledonne5547 9 месяцев назад

I do enjoy analytic videos. However i think a couple points of data could be tweaked. I think you give too much weight to pay in pay vs. performance, and too much weight to pay vs. performance. Top picks at top positions are only making around 2% of the salary cap. Thats not a big number when you figure top players at most positions will command at least 10% of the cap. If a top receiver is worth 20 million per year on the free agent market, and you find a receiver at the top of the draft who immediately performs as a top 15 receiver, youre gonna pay them as bit more than 20 million over 4 years. By that metric that hypothetical player outperforms his compensation by 60 million. By contrast if you find a solid starter in round 2 who makes only 1 million per year, and whose performance is worth 5 million per year on the free agent market, you have a player who outperforms their contract by only 16 million. If you had 4 second round picks paid and performing to my hypothetical, you would have 4 players outperforming their pay by a combined 64 million. When you think about it like that, you see just how valuable it is to find players who can come in and immediately perform as stars. Also, Those 4th and 5th round picks who might need 2 years to develop into starters will only perform for their team for 2 years before hitting free agency. Those top picks should, in theory be top performers on cheap deals for 4 years under a rookie deal with a very reasonably priced 5th year option for the team if they are stars

@mosesnnakwe1665 9 месяцев назад

Very well analyzed kudos

@Badgerbrew 2 месяца назад

Damn, you make good videos! Please keep em coming.

@gavincampbell7488 5 месяцев назад

Just now finding your channel my man. Awesome content, truly. I’ll have to check out the rest of the channel but from what I’ve seen you should have hundreds of thousands of subscribers. Give it time. Cheers 🍻 and good luck.

@jimihendrix6466 5 месяцев назад

Who’s here after Bryce young

@hieirgaftien2977 7 месяцев назад

this video ages better with every panthers loss

@nwsherrer16 3 месяца назад

Love this video! Love the content!

@johnculver9353 8 месяцев назад

Thank you for quantifying and economizing my long-term suspicions! Great video! I love numbers, data, stats, and the NFL. Looking forward to your future content!

@ballsrichter 9 месяцев назад

Im surprised you didn’t mention Blaine Gabbert. The Jags traded up 6 spots in the first round to draft him right before JJ Watt.

@marlaplunk2833 9 месяцев назад

3rd option for politician: stop wasting government money, don't raise taxes, fund SS. AND get re-elected. Cuz said politician works for the people, not the government.

@alejandrosuarez5540 7 месяцев назад

Correct, even if we tax all surplus from those making 500,000 or more, we can't balance the budget. We need to trim the fat and get rid of excess programs and even dare I say cut military a little 😯

@bammontana5742 6 месяцев назад

then they get ousted from the inside instead of by the people's vote. America is a democracy in appearance only

@mattyisabella 19 дней назад

This content is absolutely amazing. I would love a video about how much the team a player is drafted to, affects how their career plays out. For example, Cade Cunningham being drafted to the pistons, and being the next star for a struggling franchise, vs. Tatum being drafted to a contending team. Would be interesting to know see how this affects their overall career in terms of responsibility on a team, and how they're perceived by their fan base (especially in their earlier years). Would be amazing.