Sponsored by Private Internet Access, Use the following link to access their promotional offer: www.piavpn.com/Perun I know some of you were waiting for an air-war video this week (and for some of the exciting stuff currently in the video production pipeline) but given the way these events stole the headline, I thought it was better to put the coda on the Wagner mutiny & MoD rivalry story now, and pivot back to the campaigns themselves next week. I had done a lot of preparation for the time when Prigozhin finally ceased to be a factor which did help with this episode - though I hadn't expected the likes of Utkin to be hit at the same time. While it remains hypothetically possible that Prigozhin will surface again (he's done it before) - I think for now the evidence is strongly that this is his end (albeit not the end of the role Russian PMCs play in overseas operations) I wish you all the very best, hope you enjoy the video, and I'll see you all again next week.
*Drunken Beat Starts* Song for Perun There once was a plane that got shot to the ground Didn't take long for the crash site to be found It was flying mighty high on Flight tracker before she exploded like a Cracker . She'd not been two weeks since last in the Sky The mechanic even looked at it with his eye The captain called all hands and swore That the next flight will not be a bore. 🎶🎶Soon may the Wagner come To bring us Coups and Vodka and Fun One day, when the tonguing is done They'lll take their leave and go To go reclaim their home ....🎶🎶 Before the plane had hit the ground A Missile made a whirling sound They all fell out with such a fright while Putin watched in pure delight . As news had broken and hit the round Belarus was panicking on the ground Lukashenko tried to interfere and wail But all he could get was Prigozhin's Voicemail. 🎶Soon may the Wagner come To bring us Coups and Vodka and Fun One day, when the tonguing is done They'll take their leave and go To go reclaim their home .......🎶
@@macmcleod1188 Indeed. Or at least ones within easy reach of your enemy. With all of Prigozhin’s fake IDs, she should have had one and been on a beach in Guam before he started for Rostov-on-Don.
@@dasbubba841 For sure Omar! Kills me that he didn’t plan just a bit better, coordinated with the Russian teams working with the Ukrainians, and pushed until he was in Red Square. Imagine if he was as well received there by the citizens as he was Rostov and if only a fraction of the Russian military forces and leaders arrayed around Moscow were are compliant as those he encountered moving north? Prigozhin is a bastard and a war criminal, but the fact that he publicly stated that the war was based on lies, is continuing based on more lies, and there is a chance in hell that the war will have a good outcome for Russia while Russian soldiers are being slaughtered for no better purpose than the ego’s of those at the top… …a cease fire would have certainly been declared soon after he walked up the Defense Ministry or Kremlin steps, and got on the phone with Putin to discuss the public trial of those “at fault” of deceiving him. Then eventually moving the conversation to the topic of Putin’s comfortable retirement in early 2024, or his state funeral after suddenly succumbing to his long illness in mid 2023.
The hubris of Wagner flying high over Russian airspace with all of its senior leadership aboard is a veritable living reenactment of the ancient Greek parable of Icarus flying too close to the sun.
Tbh I think it was Putin having a little bit of dramatic irony considering out of all the oligarchs and fall victims, Prigozhin is the only one who shot down Putin's aircraft.
The stupidity of these streetwise hoodlums is truly shocking. At the very least you’d expect to see a plane shot down with the intended victims escaping until the next time. But, oh no, they gave themselves on a plate. Very strange indeed.
I dunno man... you think Prigozhin faked his death? I wouldn't put it past him to try something like this. 8 high ranking members of Wagner all on one plane? I think he'll get revenge on Putin in 9 years. A man betrayed by his country, that destroyed his mercenary force and shot down his aircraft. He'll have to rebuild, but maybe Prigozhin will make the legend come back to life.
The weirdest part was being alive while traveling in Russia and reportedly meeting Putin. I thought those early stories of him still being in Russia were dubious. The whole affair is just bizarre.
@chrimony yeah, that was the next level of weirdness. I guess they could have had a deal like "I don't touch you for 60 days, you get your affairs in order and leave," and then Prigozhin miscalculated 60 days...
@@dwar1072 I agree, but I gotta say the special *insert word here* operation jokes have been around for a time now. I don't wanna say they are overused, it still made me smirk. But the ammunition one really caught me off guard and was like taylored for this very situation :D
Perun's hunor is on point this episode! "Prigozhin appeared again, this time with pants" "Some of the Wagner fighters wanted to move on to greener pastures, like Africa."
Putin's mindset: When you're in a position of weakness, negotiate. After you negotiate, strengthen your position. When you're in a position of strength, break whatever deal you negotiated.
@schmittian1313 considering how many people were talking about how the resolution of Wagner's... whatever you call that thing they did... made Putin look really weak, I think he was going to do something like this eventually.
1. Very reasonable mindset, actually. And it's not like you are supposed to stick to whatever deal you negotiated when the conditions that forced this deal upon you are gone. 2. I would speculate that maybe Prigozhin was given 2 months to get his affairs in order and move to Belarus or Africa. And then it turned out that the last day of subscription is not included.
@@iliaponomarev1624 If I was to be in the process of selling you a car, and as soon as you gave me the money I jumped in the car and drove off, you would hardly say "that's a very reasonable mindset"
@mointz But, like, when you put a gun to my head and offer me to sell my car to you for $1... I mean, as soon as the gun is off the table, the deal is off.
“If the train derails or the plane goes down, you don’t want your organisation to be paralysed because half your leadership decided to engage in the kerbal space program school of disacceleration techniques” Savage
The fact that so many high-ranking members of Wagner were on the same plane makes me wonder if they were even alive when they boarded the plane in the first place.
Wow. I can't believe the pilot had a heart attack, leading to the wing falling off, and Prigozhin deciding to throw himself out of a window. Truly a tragic accident.
Accidents do happen, just look at Trevor Jacobs. His engine stopped, the door sprung open and he was sucked out - fortunately he had a parachute, but more often than not people don't have. And most people too don't have fire extinguisher up their trousers.
And turned out he was the hot dog boy who just got his position out of loyalty alone After it turned out he wasn't loyal - he literally lost any and all the traits that got him the job in the first place. That's the Siloviki culture of Russia in a nutshell.
He took a calculated risk and then chickened out at the last moment. It's like if Julius Ceasar crossed the Rubicon and then decided not to pass the gates of Rome at the last moment. Don't revolt unless you are going to finish the job.
@@ADobbin1 Yeah, the real lesson for Russian officials is that if you turn on Putin, you shouldn't stop until one of you is dead, because negotiations and truces are just going to give Putin time to stage your death
I laughed so hard that my neighbors called the cops. When they arrived I explained the situation and they had to laugh too. Then all of them and my neighbors clapped and gave me $2000.
@@tzarfrogmeister LOL, good story. That reminds me of another time the cops came to a private adress: A late evening from his window the owner witnessed two burglars breaking into his garage. The man 3 times called the cops, stating that the burglary was still ongoing and the burglars could be caught in the act. Each time the cops replied that _"they did not have time to come to his address."_ Frustrated, the man waited 5 minutes, then called again saying: _"You couldn't come, I had to handle it myself. I grapped my rifle. Now the two burglars are dead."_ Within 2 minutes to the scene arrived 6 police cars and a motorcycle with a total of 21 cops, 3 ambulances, a helicopter and a heavily armed SWAT team. They quickly checked the area, arrested the 2 burglars, then confronted the house owner saying: _"You lied to us. The burglars were not dead."_ The house owner responded: _"You lied to me. You said you didn't have time to come here."_
The loss to meme stock was substational! Navalny, Girkin, Surovikin arrested, Stremousov Sonny Corleone'd, and now even Biber is dead. Only things we have to laugh are Sosaldo, Dolik and Chmonya,
Not sure if it was mentioned here but I think it is worth taking a moment to pay respects to the crew who also died in the crash despite seemingly having played no part in the Wagner uprising, and whose fates often get glossed over by the media amidst their coverage and focus on Prigozhin and the other passengers - *_Aleksei Levshin (pilot), Rustam Karimov (co-pilot) and Kristina Raspopova (flight attendant)._*
As a private pilot myself, this is what I was thinking about. Some poor bastards were probably so excited to get out of regional flights and start doing VIP flights. They probably didn't even know who they were going to be flying, just excited that it would be a big name. 🙁
It does get pretty difficult to think about the ostensibly innocent people who had to serve the people we hate. They were just doing a job. I don't think they were fully aligned with Wagner. Just paid to ferry them off someplace, treating them like regular rich folks. Doesn't matter who pays them; they got mouths to feed. Wrong place, wrong people. Still, with my sympathies for the crew of the aircraft (and in some sense the aircraft itself), I have practically none for their passengers.
Well said. Too often people caught up in the collateral damage only get mentioned to further a political point. I remember a Chechen being interviewed during the conflict there a few decades ago. A rogue artillery shell had hit his street, killing around 20 members of his family. He said that he didn't know who had started the war, he only knew that it wasn't him. How many millions have felt that down the years, as they've found themselves caught up in events they have no control over?
@@RT-qd8yl you mean fly for corrupt rich people that stole from them and their Russian relatives? Nah, may as well not even mention the crew, more respectful that way. I would have more respect for those flying regional flights.
I’m surprised Putin isn’t seen as weak for having to resort to shooting down a private jet to get Prigozhin. The fact that Putin didn’t feel comfortable arresting him and putting him on trial says a lot.
Bit late here but thats the complete opposite. Putin basically is saying that he doesnt care about formalities he will jump over the procedures and personally deal with it. Its not weakness its "i will do this my way"
As cruel criminal Prigozhin was, he at last night before his rampage on Moscow told us the truth on his late night sofa talk. He said bluntly that Russia has non what so ever valid reason attacking Ukraine. May that be his positive heritage in life.
So passes Yevgeny the Bald, attainted Duke of Wagner, Earl of Africa, Lord of Rostov, Conqueror of Bakhmut, Cupbearer to the Tsar, a Knighted Member of the Inner Circle of Oligarchs of the Russian Federation, a man who would be the next Tsar. Long Live the Duke! /s
21:45 regarding the reasons why so many Wagner leaders have been on a single flight - one alleged expert on German public TV concluded that this organisation might have been somewhat Mafia-like and that Prigozhin might not have entirely trusted his subordinates, wrongly believing that keeping them close (so they could not conspire against him) might keep him safe. In other words, sometimes dumb stuff like this just happens because of someone being dumb without an elaborate conspiracy behind it. Someone might have seen this list and taken the opportunity (with or without Putins explicit order).
That contradicts Prigozhin's own words to Lukashenko, which basically add up to Priggy no longer giving a "Flying F" as some in the USA would put it, about his own safety.
That seems unlikely given that at least Utkin had significant autonomy. However, going by the idiot theory, the only Wagner who would be in the position to put the whole top leadership in one small plane, and expect that to be followed, was Prigozhin.
Prigozhin should have flown on commercial aircraft while near Russia's sphere of military influence. But imagine how nervous other passengers would be to discover that they were on the same flight as an enemy of Putin.
Fucking hell Perun, I know you like to be prepared and all but I wasn't expecting "I've been waiting for this person to die, so I could use this prepared material" I'm both scared and very impressed.
As always, I really appreciate your lucid, insightful and humorous take on a topic. Relatively deep, balanced dives on *any* topic these days is disturbingly rare. Keep up the great work.
Honestly the biggest shock to me about this is how long Prigozhin somehow survived after the mutiny, especially given he was getting on private jets and stuff. I'd have to think that to kill him Putin would have to send a platoon deep into rural Belarus Apocalypse Now style
@@somethinglikethat2176 I think everyone was surprised by that and it's probably the biggest embarrassment of the whole ordeal. I think it speaks to how overstretched the Russian military is at this point. I don't think they made a strategic decision to allow the convoy to almost reach Moscow and shoot down multiple aircraft along the way.
@@somethinglikethat2176 I'm not. Russian aviation is garbage & the bulk of their air-to-ground assets are in Ukraine right now anyway. I guess they could have carpet bombed them with Tupelev's or something, but I bet they'd struggle to actually hit a moving convoy.
Congrats Perun. You took your sarcasm to new heights with this one. Fantastic work as usual and an insightful presentation of the facts and speculation surrounding the decapitation of the head of the Wagner snake. 👍
A side note on the Russian military absorbing Wagner fighters to stop them from rebelling: In the Russian revolutions during WW1, it is exactly by forcefully sending political dissidents to the front lines that they found a larger crowd(soldiers in the trenches) to disseminate their revolutionary ideas to.
Otoh, Wagner personnel that agreed to the integration reportedly started they were harassed and sent to the front lines more than the ordinary military personnel.
@@NewGuyGamesTraveler to be fair, Wagner isn’t exactly like other mercenary groups as far as I’m aware. It was also a useful way to deploy troops on a semi-deniable basis, going around any legal hurdles by not officially being part of the Russian military. Which also makes it attractive to the most hardcore of Russian nationalists looking for a way to support Russian interests around the world, and a good place for the Russian military to send special forces types so they can work overseas. So people who will have strong opinions on how the war is going. The people they recruited out of prison will almost certainly just want to stay alive and get the hell out though.
One thing I think you missed was that the body was supposedly shown to some Wagner troops, and they positively identified it. Another interesing development is the paving over of Wagner cemeteries created by Prigozhin after Bakhmut, which also points to Putin likely trying to cut off any future lionization/martyrdom.
That 'cemetery paved over' story was literal fake news. There's an article in Russian explaining that the wooden crosses are being replaced by the permanent stone pyramids.
Yup, I've also seen a video of a cemetery filled with dead Wagner troops being erased from the face of the Earth. It wouldn't come as a surprise if in a year time the propagandists would start denying the very ever existence of Wagner 😅
@@elektrotehnik94 The source is a telegram channel in a language I cannot read, as is most of the news coming out relatinig to this. Which is why I qualified it with "supposedly." The paving over graves has been covered in two separate videos (that I've seen), ofc.
You know, there's been a bit of doom and gloom about Ukraine's painfully slow progress in their counter offensive. But can we all just take a step back and look at the former global superpower now tearing itself internally after, what? More than a year of a three-day special military operation? i hope no one has forgotten that.
The logic displayed by the Pro-RU side on this matter always baffled me. Since the start of the war the only narratives that stated it was going to be a walk in the park were peddled by Russia. With this in mind i find it hard to understand how they don't realise every waking moment Russia has yet to accomplish their strategic goals beyond flattening cities is a colossal embarrassment. Never mind the fact that they're in a remarkably worse off position economically and politically than before the SMO.
killing Prigozhin isnt really a big intrnal struggle. Evne his march was supported by noone. Not even mos tof Wagner. What you wrote is just a cope because you dont want to face the unsucceesful ukrainian offensive.
Didn't wagner march on russia because wagner got VERY bad info on attacking a certain target. 500 wagner troops tried to attack a placed controlled by 48 American spec op agents. Wagner lost most their troops. Blamed the bad intel and marched.
It's actually really nice to see you talk about Africa, you should maybe do a video or two about some of the conflicts going on there, especially since they aren't covered by Western media very well
I kinda need to know a lot more about industry in that part of Africa as a whole. Where do they get their concrete and steel from, their aluminum and their copper, their chips etc. This channel has taught me a lot about how building things is really really important to making things.
@@BiggestCorvid T-sply on youtube is covering ECOWAS/Niger and the coups that have created a band of puppet government juntas from the atlantic to the red sea.
@aliveortees Short answer? China. China is the world’s largest concrete producer by a mile. The Chinese “Belt and Road” initiative is a policy that encourages massive Chinese investments in Africa and Southeast Asia. Basically, Chinese contractors do the work for Pennie’s on the dollar, and in return they gain permanent access to any infrastructure they built. It’s obviously more complicated than that, but in terms of raw materials, it’s simple enough to just say “China does it”.
The Parthian general defeated Crassus and poured liquid gold into his mouth. The Parthian king executed the general for being a threat to his power. Also, Tribune Aquila did not give permission to pour molten gold.
What are the odds that we could convince Historia Civilis to do a series on some more recent history? I just realized that I need the adventures of the little hotdog-selling square 🟧 in my life.
As always, Thanks Perun! Honestly, as a dutchman myself i can't WAIT for the Air-war continuation episode next week, but even with Preggie playing DCS (Digital Crash Simulator) err- scratch that... RLCS I think you'll strike the sweet spot on the topic of the F16 transfers in it's timewindow next week. As per always you've been playing the right cards at the right time and providing us with the best sunday afternoons ever. I'm sure you'll bring up yet another on time, on target and on point presentation next week! Thank you and Houdoe
The description of the aircraft's erratic flight pattern before the crash reminds me of the stuff you see in action films where a fight takes place on an airplane or helicopter.
I don't see that "maneuvers" as something important. could be some instruction was issued to pilot just to better separation from other targets on radar or something other not realy relevant (even software glitch or inteference from some military instruments involved, etc.)
How to die in the Pootin apparatus: No level = strong tea, swimming pool, car bomb Low level = fall down stairs, window 3rd floor mid level = window 6th floor (hospital optional) high level = window, 9th, 10th floor top level = plane crash Pootin himself = moon rocket? (time will tell)
The only part that upsets me about cases like this is the poor air crew were just doing a job. It would be like shooting the Uber driver because your gang rival was in the back.
If it takes a hand grenade to swat a fly, and all you care about is swatting the fly...I guess at least you're guaranteed to get the fly, everything else is just incidental and unavoidable collateral damage.
Hey man, really appreciate all the work you put into these videos, the structure and depth are a real testament to how important it is to you that these stories get told. Particularly given the fact you no doubt had an entirely different script near completion when this event occurred. Anyway, you're doing a great service.
Getting to hear your analysis of current world events is such an absolute pleasure and an extraordinary privilege. It's the reason I look forward to Sundays these days. I hope you're well and look forward to what's to come. 🎉
Thank you for the great video and big hugs from Kyiv. You continue to be one of the most insightful commentators and analytics of the war, and watching you each Sunday is now a tradition for me :) One of the things that I wanted to point out, that in my view just underscores that more than anything this was an execution made very public on purpose. There were reports (and videos, that you can find) coming from russia, where wagner veterans are complaining that the cemetery of their brother-in-arms is being demolished - with piles of taken-down crosses and some areas being covered with cement by construction workers... In almost two years we are used to many stuff here in Ukraine, and I don't have any sympathy to these brutal mercenaries, but even with that - I was shocked by this move. Then again - it's very stalin-like - don't just destroy, but also erase... And still the population will support all of this. The graves of the 'heroes' of siege of Bakhmut being erased few months forward and they still have no doubts that they are on the right side of history...
The most impressive bit is that you had prepared this “for some time”. Thanks for seeing the future clearly for those of us that just wonder what will happen this afternoon.
Any good journalist, and Perun is an excellent journalist, will have files relatively up to date on stories that they want to publish for events that haven't happened yet. In large news organizations it is very common to have background information on important people and celebrities in case a breaking store happens or an obituary needs to be written quickly. As @Dramatic_Gaming stated, Putin has a long record of dealing harshly with people whom break his trust. Many people expected Putin to inflict capital punishment right away.
When asked about something: Perun: I will wait untill more information on the subject is available to make any prediction Me: I will wait untill Perun video on the subject is available to make any prediction
28:29 Given that during the run to Moscow Wagner shutdown a plane with officers from VKS and some more helicopters with pilots, there will be a lot of folks ready to do it even without getting an order. An order just makes things easier, not harder.
Very detailed and comprehensive. Apreciate the level of research and the entertaining delivery. Never failing to cover the most urgent and imactive topics. As always Kudos.
I was sort of sceptical about you choosing this topic since I know you like to bring some sort of facts. And that, facts, I knew are more or less missing here. So I am positively surprised about what you managed to came up with. Thanks for the great video as always!
It is worth noting that IF the aircraft was not shot down, Russia should invite Embraer, who made the aircraft, to participate in the investigation. So unless Russia's aviation authorities invite Embraer, we can be pretty sure the aircraft was shot down
@@The_Faceless_No_Name_StrangerThey are huge. Most small regional turboprops are their machines. Flown on them many times, the jet of Prigo was a modified small airliner, they rebranded as a luxury jet. The company will be fine. No one is talking mechanical problems and even if the aircraft had not been officially maintened for years, so even if it was mechanical, it wouldn't really cast a shawdow over Embraer. I think they will do nothing. And they probably won't invite Brazilian air crash investigators.
Except how could you load a bunch of unwilling or unconscious people onto the plane without the crew noticing? There's just no way the pilots signed up for a suicide mission.
@@Matuse telling them this is just a high profile transport mission and if they refuse their families will be "involved". So just like every other time they fly high ranking Wagner people and their most likely illegal stuff around
@@Matuse there is also the more tinfoil hat explanation of "the crew was also unwilling or unconscious and the plane was remote controlled". This is a nation-state level operation involving surface-to-air-missiles after all. Remote controlling a plane isn't terribly complex even for a civilian firm these days
My biggest takeaway from the whole Wagner is that I really appreciate how Western military culture and structure evolved in the 19th century from a play thing for the nobility to extension of the modern Nation-state. I like my armies with civilian masters. So stable and predictable, with considerably less human wave tactics.
@@KasumiRINA are you honestly trying to make the argument that Russia still has a civilian government? Are you legitimately trying to make an equivalence between the Russian state and Western democracies???
To act like Russia isn't "West" is false. Not until the USA became the West's Leader did Russia start saying they were a total separation from the West. The beginning of the process you speak of. Occurred with French and American revolutions leading to the Monarchies collapsing. The French Revolution---Napoleon was explicitly stopped by Russia. During that time period. Russian, German and English kings WERE COUSINS. Russia not West? Fact is your Blinded by Hindsight. Kings sent Men to death ALL DAY. But they had only Swords. WWI you do see every country except Germany and England send Mass Waves. So has nothing to do with West. AND EVERYTHING to do with Authoritarian Elites AKA the Monarchy your congratulating in the West's supposed "Empathy". Get IT THROUGH YOUR HEAD. Elites don't give a f**k about you. I'm not talking about Hollywood or some crap like that. I am talking about the .01% Rich. That is the New Monarchy trying to control everything. They don't care about your life one bit. Peasants, Serfs, Peons, Slaves, Poor. These are barely animals to the Ultra Rich and Kings of the Past.
Based on the witness reports, the flight data, and your analysis, I think what's most likely is that an explosion disabled the pitch controls (maybe by just blowing the tail off) but the pilot fought to keep it steady for some time, even after a wing came off, too, either from a second explosion, or from the stress of flying without a tail. It wasn't clean at all... The passengers and crew might have passed out from lack of oxygen before the plane went down.
Blowing the tail off is more than just losing pitch control: you've lost all directional stability. The missing outboard wing section was probably caused by the jet departing straight and level flight and tumbling at high speed immediately after the tail was blown off by the explosion. The passengers and crew would've known something terrible had occurred, but the g-forces and sudden oxygen deprivation would mean they rapidly blacked out and were unlikely to be conscious on impact.
@@mrkeogh A witness reported seeing it flying with only one wing, and the plane's erratic movement started with a sudden rapid climb, followed by a drop, with a second climb later before it eventually went out of control by entering a flat spin. So it seems the pilots were able to react to whatever happened and restore control temporarily, it just wasn't enough to stop the failure cascade.
@@amymason156it's indeed possible that the pilots' actions exacerbated the damage to an already crippled plane. Would explain why there was some semblance of control first, then a sudden straight crash.
I, personally, choose to believe that the Prig & Co. didn't get the relief of passing out... I rather more like to imagine them in absolute terror until the moment of their extremely violent demise. Some people are just evil enough to deserve that.
If I had to hazard a guess, I'd suggest that Utkin was also the philosophical and ideological cornerstone of Wagner. Apparently it was he who came up with the name, based on Richard Wagner, who was 'You Know Who's' favourite composer. And there are alternative pictures of Utkin showing that he has at least one interesting tattoo - you know the one, an eagle holding a kind of crooked-cross. Yes, they're neo-nazis, just in case you were having issues joining the dots 😂
@@athrowaway3487 Whether they were or not, it does not change the fact that Ukraine actively supported genocide for others but cried and rambled to the world when it happened to them. So either way it's cool.
@@athrowaway3487 During the 2003 invasion of Iraq, there were many troops from ukraine who participated AND they vocally supported the Zionist genocide of Palestine for many years, even until pretty recently so they get no sympathy from me at all. The only times they had anything "humanitarian" to say on a global stage was when it was a NATO-Russia issue that threatened them directly. But getting involved and promoting and celebrating the deaths of civillians elsewhere shows they had this coming.
I struggle to imagine anyone choosing to work for a warlord and thinking they aren't facing mortal danger. Like pilots transporting a general or politician during wars of the past, it's not a safe job. Did she deserve it? Unlikely but the choice was there.
The tent photo is fairly straightforward to explain. Prighozin liked to portray himself as 'a man of the troops' so he did the basic 'treat your troops like you treat yourself'. The Wagner fighters slept in a tent in Belarus, so just for photo ops Prigo slept there to. RUMINT says he actually did sleep there for real, with good effect on troop morale, but that's RUMINT.
it was just an accident, Prigozhin just fell from a window, but the window just happen to be several thousand feet in the air at the time, and attached to a plane, and there might have been some explosives needed to open the window
usually when you explain a joke to someone that does not make it funnier, it is just sad that you are so humourless, hope that works for you generally, do you have any friends?. @@More_Row
Priggy made the mistake of being too public about his African adventures. Putin probably didn't feel too threatened before that as he was still partially funding Wagner staying in Russia's colony/puppet state Belarus and so keep the company in check somewhat. But once Wagner gets some more lucrative businesses/mines in Africa, then that would mean Putin's influence on Wagner would decrease. So Wagner's head had to go.
Wagner was a useful tool for conducting dirty work in Africa without having to actually fly the Russian flag. Without Wagner a lot of their crimes will likely be more visible internationally being that they can no longer hide behind a PMC, and that the Russian army is less competent and disciplined, leading to more crimes against local populations and less resources siphoned to Russia. Given this i'm not sold on the narrative that this was a hit by Putin. Is my rational wrong?
Wagner in Africa is a catspaw for Russian influence. Worse, by requiring all the PMCs to swear to the MOD, Russia can no longer claim they are not really Russian forces.
22:37 "The Godfather," 25:00 I don't "break failure," was a factor. 37:30 Don't forget the diamonds, gold, copper, oil, coltan, rhino horn, etc. 46:10 Also, loss of deniability (a declining asset admittedly.) Another Sunday lunchtime well spent. Looking forward to next episode.
Perun: "Honestly, I'm now just wating to see how the Wagner contingent goes at the first international academic conference they decide to turn up at." Well, they DID manage to deliver an organizational change piece by the means of high exploves. Pretty sure some HR and managerial type will want to learn a few things about that. And the lesson is: those who attempt to organizational change by explosions, gets "organizational changed" by explosions. (Edit: punchline came to mind moments after the initial post)
From what I have heard and that I can not verify myself : - Xavier Tytelman (military aviation expert) is sure at 100% that the white plume with the grayish smoke at the end seen in the video is the signature of an Anti-Air missile finale phase thrust and interception explosion - Photo evidence shows shrapnels holes in the plane fuselage, reportedly very similar to the shoot-down of the commercial Malesia airline plane MH17 by the russian above Ukrainian soil - Reportedly, the air control has given the order to the Prigozhin's private jet to deviate from the normal commercial route between moscow and st petersbourg, as seen in "FlightRadar 34", away from the other commercial plane before it was shoot-down. source : ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-Kzo--BqYooQ.htmlsi=3ivYqCD79mE2kyWU
I lean more towards a bomb in the cargo hold at the rear. The wing recovered and dragged out of the forest didn't appear to have shrapnel damage and the tail separated from the aircraft, which indicates a possible explosive event in that area of the plane - which is the cargo hold. Having said that, I don't discount a missile as the white plume appears bigger than I would expect from a bomb onboard and maybe the forest wing was on the other side of the aircraft from a potential missile strike protecting it from the blast damage. A bomb would require fewer people to be involved. Putting on a tin foil hat, a diversion of the flight plan would need to come from someone to the air traffic controller via a supervisor to make the radio call - several people to hush up. There would also then be multiple members of whatever missile battery to then hush up if one was fired even if it was an "unidentified target heading into closed "Putin's Valdi airspace". We'll likely never really know the true answer and honestly, it doesn't really matter as the end result is still the same.
@@OneLeatherBoot Given the damage to the craft, and witness testoimoney saying they heard two seperate explosions, I'm of the opinion that it was shot down by anti-air missiles. Long range missiles at high enough altitude wouldn't leave contrails visible from the ground. And the shrapnel holes pointed inwards, not outwards.
Based on personal contacts, most mercenariea are utterly pragmatic. I knew a guy who was employed as a scheduler (as in planning ) and he was a mercenary. Used to shoot civilians out of a helicopter. Total psychopath. He'd be doing a desk job on one contract and then two weeks later he'd be shooting kids. And then come back again smiling like he'd been on a holiday or something.
To be fair to Putin the deal with Prigozhin seems to have included exile, yet he was flying his plane around in Russian airspace. If he had just retired to a one story building with no stairs, basement or swimming pool but with food tasters and geiger counters Putin would have had to work slightly harder to eliminate him. It might have even been so inconvenient that Putin might not have bothered. For a while.
UKRAINIAN TROOPS LANDED ON CRIMEA! Man, I cant WAIT for your next video. (they also hit a bridge connecting russia to Crimea with three of the sea drones you talked about earlier in your vid on Türkiye) Keep up the amazing work Perun!
"Because after the whole affair someone figured it wasn't probably a good idea to let them roll around with pantzir anti aircraft systems" love your sense of humour
You know, given how much Perun likes to take his time to get his facts straight before saying anything and how fast he had this episode out, if he ever told me I was in danger I would probably take it more seriously than a warning from the police.
The trouble is the enormous amount of alternative explanations based on the information available. The reported missing elevator alone has explanations going from shoddy maintenance to a bomb or missile attack. A snapping elevator could certainly make a loud bang, so would an engine failure. Both could lead to shrapnel damage and further hull damage. Both could lead to debris being mistaken for missile traces. One of the easiest witness mistakes is timing. Your brain will neatly rearrange events into whatever order seems most logical to it. With the evidence being irrevocably tainted only minutes after the crash, courtesy of Russian "law enforcement" taking possession, there is no way to ascertain any particular scenario anymore. Period. I feel relatively safe in saying that there will never be any evidence that is reliable about what happened.
But we'll never see any of these people again. The Russians ALWAYS lie, but none of the people who die "in unfortunate accidents" ever turn up again, it's the one thing where you can rely on the Russians
One relevant question might be whether this concentration of Wagner bigwigs on one plane was exceptional or routine. If exceptional, might help to explain why it took this long. This information is probably unknowable. Either way it's a testament to Prigozhin's importance that the window he fell out of was not just 6 or 8 stories up, but several hundred.
What was that line from Breaking Bad? "The moral of the story is: I chose a half measure, when I should have gone all the way. I’ll never make that mistake again."
The only thing I will miss about Prighozin was his Bond-villain flair. Seeing him on trial at the Hague, or stretched at the end of a rope would have been better though. I suppose I've still got hope for Girkin, Putin, and others, but it seems Russian criminals don't make it out of the Russian criminal system.
Excellent video as always. Something I wonder about is whether Prigozhin reneged on the agreement that was struck. As you mentioned it seems weird that he was comfortably dragging his feet on the whole being exiled business. From Putin's perspective it's a very dangerous position to not be able to make deals or agreements because there's no faith they'll be followed. Even the worst of adversaries have to back channel and negotiate from time to time and if you can't do that because there's no trust you won't be double crossed then it puts you in a very compromising position. Seems like a bad move in that regard.
Given that Putin is famous for breaking deals the instant they don’t suit him I don’t know why anyone expects him to keep to the deal let alone anyone else. A Putin deal is worth less than the paper it is written on.
