The Edge of Disruption - Automotive, Petroleum and Steel Industries - Tony Seba 

Interesting to view ....now we are in a disruptive pandemic - we are talking about the need for more parking lots because we can't be on public transport and electric bikes are seeing a surge !

Tony Seba rulez Tony is the man

Excellent insightful and prescient

The problem with $25 a barrel is you cant get out what's left at that price.

La disruption verte est en cours acti-ve.org/voiture-electrique-disruption-verte-en-cours/mobilite-electrique/2017/07/

If everyone can get around so cheap, won't that mean that people will be moving a lot more? Therefore a much larger need for roads and other infrastructure? Maybe governments must incentiveize transport that uses less road space per person ( busses for long trips)?

Is the upstream industry for these new batteries equipped to handle this additional demand? Do we have enough lithium and other essential raw materials to be mined in the future? Is the entire supply chain going to be ready to get these materials to battery manufacturers? Currently the system to get gasoline to your gas station ( from the oil reserves thousands of feet below the ground) is incredibly complex and we'll financed.

When he says that people won't be driving so much and would therefore be able to send that time more productively, I think he is wrong, because in fact people are only driving or using an autonomous vehicle when a journey is necessary. It may be true that the number of cars may diminish ten fold, but the number of journeys made will probably not. In fact the number of journeys may increase if the journey becomes less expensive.

Quite scary how Elon Musk actually achieved Level 5 Autonomous driving in 2019. I'll wait on 2023 till we replace combustion cars with electric one

OMG the disk space needed...

It certainly looks like there will be many changes coming in the next few years, but my doubting comes from Mr Seba's extrapolation. He's extending it too far with no concerns for counter-forces. We've already seen backlash actions by oil producers, car makers, and all sorts of established interests to stop or slow down Solar, EVs, etc... they will have some effects. I believe Mr Seba is right ultimately, I just question his timeline.

All technological progress has the effect of increasing the value of land. If you don't understand this, it is OK because you have been bamboozled by our elites and their toady economists who have been cashing in on the unearned income that comes from the private ownership of land, the root cause of the disparity of wealth, the root cause of poverty amid great wealth and the destroyer of the benefits to all humanity that is supposed to come from from progress. All the benefits of progress in terms of less cost and more productivity, gets capitalized into the value of land and its rental/cost value. This is so because land has no cost of production and its market value is created by the need of every human being for access to land without exception. I am not sure Seba knows/gets this but it is worthwhile considering since income from jobs in the old paradigm are going away along with all the jobs that are going to be disrupted by the technological progress he is talking about. It is taxation of the unearned income from ownership of land/natural resources that will provide the income for humanity that will be eliminated with the new technology. m

Tony missed one thing is his projections. EV BUSES! China has 430,000 Electric buses on the roads and they are adding 800 a week. Each one of them is removing over 30-40 bl/day from the global demand for oil. Do the math. Expect the collapse within 12 months.

I predict the Liberal Party will convert unnecessary parking space to green areas in Liberial seats and convert to cheap residental units in Labour seats.

people talking about potencial and disruption in automobile, yet the petrol heads are like... "nah i'm not buying, these cars are too quiet for my taste"

Yrqg😮

Another issue no one talks about is overpopulation... Well...we already hv 7.5 billion ppl on the planet! most scientists agree ~2 billion is the carrying cap of humans... with respect to all other sentient beings. We are way over carrying capacity.... besides latest ipcc report says we only hv 10 yrs to stop runaway climate chaos! Meaning if we all dont change our lifestyles everyones kids are fkd! You know I already decided Not to hv kids! Having one kid is a lifetime of carbon emissions! And if your kids have kids that multiple generations... So 2 billion is a cap considering all earths species, with regard to habitat and space needed for survival. For example wolves need about 100acres of land each, for hunting/survival. On avg they generally run 20-35miles per day!! And thats just one animal... with habitat destruction, human sprawl and hunting/trapping, animals have less and less areas to survive. Thats why most are going extinct today. Very last white male rhino died last yr! Many shark species are considered extinct today cuz of shark fin soup fishing. N America used to hv about 60million buffalo... now we have like 31,000. We shot them all to destroy native americans' main food source! There are pics of stacked piles of buffalo bones 2 stories high... humans destroy everything!!! Everything! Not even exaggerating! N america used to look like yellowstone nat park.... all of it!! Moose, big horn sheep, elk, deer, wolves, buffalo, bald eagles, all kinds of hawks, bears everywhere, mtn lions, honey badgers, river otters, wolverines, etc etc. Why do u think thousands of ppl travel to yellowstone every yr. Cuz thats one of the last few places u can see animals living in the wild and not in a fuking tiny cage at the zoo!!! 7.5 billion humans on the planet! 7.5billion... estimated less than 10k chimpanzees!! Seriously we dont need any more human babies... Watch "Sir David Attenborough on Overpopulation" on RU-vid ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-JRPmLWYbUqA.html