I don't get why this video has only 229k views. Any manager in German autoindustry should have watched this. Instead they were busy manipulating exhaust emission tests, while sleeping on the wheel.
I've been an EV driver for 4 years. I have ice cars and don't drive them anymore. it has really messed my head up because I'm a hard core car guy. I just don't see the need to drop money in the tank when I can drive for almost nothing.
Sadly when in here if the EV car costs 30% more you can put a lot of fuel in the tank with that money. For example Nissan Leaf (2018) costs like 36000€ (starting price) Nissan Micra (2018) costs 15000 ... so why would I spend double the money to EV car. Really makes no sense. If my math isn't too far off, with current petrol price I can drive 280000km until it has cost more to drive petrol car. I counted 0 costs for EV charging due to higher costs in petrol car maintenance. I drive about 15000km / year so it would take me 18 years to close the gap in the price. I would probably drive 1 car only for 10 years until I switch to a new one. So it would start again unless in 10 years something happens and we have much cheaper EV cars. So at this point makes no sense for me to buy EV. I'll wait until they are cheaper and the tech is really ready for mass EV.
People said that about the prius. $5k more or so. But i drove both cars and one was a toy.. the prius was a joy. False equivalence fail. Since 2002 or 20 years we saved $60k in gas and we drive much less than most. Some saved $100k and the cars were nice, midsized for us and cost about 35k in lost asset or true cost after trade in. Ps: they gave me $6500 for one after a mechanic totally destroyed the engine.
Isn't it amazing how we're pretty much bang on his prediction? It's also amazing how much people want to cling on to their beliefs, regardless of the evidence to the contrary.
I cant wait to come back to this in 5 years and laugh with all of you about how all these companies went under because of this disruption. Go Tesla GO!
He is right about that it's not happening in the future but it's happening now. My next car will be an EV. The last car I purchased, I bought a used car that has about 7 years left to drive. I planed it out so by around 2020 to 2022 it will be time to replace that with an EV. I am good even with a 150 mile range. If I have to drive anything more than that once in a while, I don't have any problem taking an hour break to re-charge the EV. Also, getting solar panels. Can't wait to see all cars go electric. Good Riddance to oil.
OMFG I want my graduation (~2023-2024) gift for college to be an entry-level EV (well, if Filipino politicians would start thinking rationally). This is just amazing!
Politicians and rational in the same sentence... does not compute... Luckily, if a company like Tesla wants to be successful the MUST be rational, and they are! The 2021 announcement of a $25 000 USD Tesla Model is a literal check mate.
Watching this in 2019 and wow this guy prediction is right on. I got a Tesla in 2018 and I can’t imagine going back to driving a dinosaur gas car. “By 2030 game over for gas car companies” Nice!
Great topic - I enjoyed the presentation very much. I would like to see more in-depth analysis on the fall-out of the change from fossil to EV transportation. As a consumer (and an early-adopter), I have a Tesla and am loving it every time I get into it. The whole impact of the advancement of a new technology (EV) versus the maturing of the incumbent technology (ICE) is going to cause a lot of huge waves. Sure some jobs will be transformed, but not without a lot of pain in the gas industry. The current ICE automobile is so heavily subsidized and taxed at the same time that unraveling this won't be fast enough to keep up with the technological changes. You might have noticed the ripples caused by oil prices when only a small glut was experienced. Wait until this glut becomes larger as a result of EV adoption! Along the same trend line - the price of oil will hit a cross-point where there is so much glut yet the cost of oil exploration and refining becomes prohibitive. Finally, the modern factories (like Tesla) that will build these EV's are much more modern and robotically-assisted that I doubt auto-workers and oil workers can all get jobs in electric power generation/transmission and EV production 1 for 1. I would love to know how people will make out during this critical transition.
You're absolutely right on all points. I think that there will not be any simple answers. Some people will be able to re-invent themselves in the new energy reality. Most won't. I believe that on the whole, this transition is way overdue and a step in the right direction as far sustainability goes. I always thought how ridiculous it is to have this tech marvel (iPhone) in my pocket for over a decade now... yet still have to drive in to a "Fuel" station that is basically selling refined dead animal and plant matter for my ICE engine... This tech was a good one for 1900, not 2021. With all of this disruption coming, the main question on everyone's mind ought to be: "Why are we still on a 40-50hr work week?". In the first world, with all the advancements, internet (Now available anywhere thanks to StarLink), cheap self driving cars, online classes, online business meetings it is obvious that the formerly necessary 50+ work week is obsolete. With all the other automation you mentioned, there simply will not be enough work for everyone. My argument would not work if the world's population would be seeing a decline. It is rising however. Just look at all the cheques that must be sent by governments just to keep this experiment going.
I had a hard time believing end of oil by 2030.....realizing all oil companies in the world as of 2017 are in massive debt and close to default. ...and this with 2.2 trillion dollars in government subsidies. . It may be sooner
tekis0 how will it be the end of oil companies? planes still burn fossil fuels and i have not seen or even heard of alternatives for air transportation. tires are still made from oil products. elective car or not, vehicles still use tires. i completely agree with Elon musk when he said that or dependence on fossil fuels is pathetic, but it is our reality right now. for the last 100 years oil has more and more made its way into every part of our life. so if you think it's going to go away in 13 years....
+pHD77 Bullshit. Lithium only makes up 2% of the overall weight of the batteries and doesn't have to be replenished in the battery during its life. That's hardly analagous to the constant replenishment of petrol in a petrol car, which is supported by massive amounts of drilling and fracking over the entire lifetime of the vehicle. Lithium production rates were a concern recently until the free market corrected it. The more demand there is the more production there will be.
It's the reason we have not bothered updating our car and very much prefer to keep our 1997 Camry going until EV becomes mainstream and prices deflate. No one detests the gas guzzlers more than me. Cheers from Latitude 25 south
“Bang on target” Norm?? How is that ?? It’s now March, 2023 and we have NOWHERE NEAR an average price of $20k for a typical EV around the world 😳😳 EV’s currently only have around ~5 % of total global new vehicle sales. Do you think that in 2 years time EV’s will dramatically jump to 100% of ALL global vehicle sales, AS PER TONY’S prediction in the video?? OBVIOUSLY NO! Tony’s prediction (made in 2016) is clearly WAY, WAY, WAY, WAY off the mark😬😬 The planet will eventually transition to a predominantly all EV fleet...... But it will take 20-30 years. Gasoline/diesel cars will be with us for many years to come!
I have driven EV’s for 11 years. I have two and never drive anything else. It is fascinating how so many people think our future is in oil and gasoline. I hope the transition will be as quick as Mr Seba says (although I will miss being the one pioneer when EV cars are normal!) I wouldn’t be surprised if our highly conservative Australian government and big oil companies cling on to 20th Century technology as long as possible and that the timeline will be slower in Australia than is discussed here. An excellent presentation nevertheless.
i also think this is going to happen i tell my friends this as i go on about the EV wave but our governments will skirt around it. plenty of americans“trucks” selling in australia now
Right? It's amazing to hear most oil and gas workers and execs do not even look at this topic seriously. Oh well. They'll have to look for new jobs real soon.
Would be great to have a world not choking on toxic vehicular emissions. Also this will lead to an economic boom in oil importing countries when their oil bills reduce with falling oil prices. Cant wait! Also fu OPEC!!
Well, now its March 2021, so we need to cut some slack around the 2020 tipping point. The pendulum is starting to swing towards EVs, but a little slower than Tony's chart. Still, close enough
ya sum 2000 extra moving parts in a ice car ...that alone will save you time and labor cost buying electric car, 2000 extra parts can have issues over life of the gas car
gasdorfic muncher Um, no. Most of the pictued parts had NOTHING to do with the engine and are common to EVs. Things like doors and seat adjusters aren't any different. The electric engine and reduction gearbox are simpler, and shorter-lived (due to the tremendous stress running a motor at 70% capacity continuously causes).
You can get a Renault Zoe from a dealer for £5.5k. But why would you want a second hand car? I bought mine for £192 down and £158 per month. It costs me £0.42p to charge (with our solar panels and topped up with Economy 7 tariff). I've had a lot of cars but this is now the only car I drive and I have a Jag and a classic Porsche in the garage. The reason I bought one? My Jag was costing £250 a month in diesel and last years servicing was £3500. The Zoe costs £60 a year to service.
*6/7 rapid chages to bring the bars up ready for sale* Why is someone who knows so little about this topic so vocal about it? How the fuck do you imagine rapid charging restores capacity bars?
We have had a used 2013 Nissan Leaf for a year without any problems. It doesn't have a huge range but it is a great city commuting car. I'm not sure why fast-charging would change the apparent number of available bars. There are 2 sets of bars for the capacity on a Leaf. One shows total possible capacity, one shows current charge. If you buy an used electric, just get it from a place that gives a short-term return policy so you can try it at home.
Gaz K , yes, I bought my 3rd EV, a Mitsubishi imiev, used because l used up my incentives to buy new, and it was only $7k USD having11k miles, like new costing me $144/month and saving me $300/month on fuel costs. for me it was a no brainer.
When I drive my 200 mile electric car to vacation in the mountains and there is no charging station at my hotel or camp ground when I get there that's a problem. However I do believe I will own an electric at some point in my life. Free charging will stop but fast once the demand even slightly increases.
I remember a textbook from my highschool days: "Automotive Technology". It had a diagram published by the SAE. As I recall, 30% went straight out the tailpipe. They listed several other losses but most came from mechanical friction. Engine, transmission, rear-end gears, accessories, windage from the crankshaft, etc. and in the end all you got at the rear wheels was 15%. BUT...it gets WORSE than this when you consider that the actual combustion efficiency of iso-octane is grossly inefficient right from the start! I forget what it was...something like less than 60% of the thermal capacity of the fuel. So, driving gasoline driven cars is so incredibly STUPID!! Yeah, we need to switch to electric vehicles!!
Is he really? The curve is at $20'000 for 2022. Now we have 2023 and the cheapest car with at least 200 miles I have seen so far costs about $26'000 minimum in the USA. I would not say, that he nailed it.
Not to mention electric motorcycles and bicycles. We could also use an end (or serious contraction) of parking lots, denser cities, and shorter commutes.
7:37 "By 2025, all new vehicles will be electric". Here's my prediction: By 2025, a maximum of 10% of new vehicles will be electric. Let's see who's right.
if get electric bus and electric taxi it will be a lot cheaper to move people without gasoline , electric semi could bring down cost of food to shopping centers , thiers so many things construction and mining equipment that can be improved threw ev car improvments next decade
It is the end of 2018. No electric truck no electric van on the market. Tesla is an exclusive car for the a milioner... they will be new diesels in 2025. The guy in too optimistic. In 2045 maybe...
Thank you. I always enjoy presentations by Tony Seba and Rethink X. I'm looking forward to an update to the book on transportation and more presentations on precision fermentation.
I already use an electric vehicle. It gets 956 MPGe from my calculations. It's far more energy efficient than electric passenger cars because it weighs a lot less and doesn't squander using that electrical energy on moving a big heavy box.It's an electric motorized assist bicycle and it's inexpensive too.
@@billyehh I don't use it in those harsh weather conditions. My exceptions on an electric bike are for snow and ice (about two weeks where I live), a strong windstorm maybe a week out of the year. I hunker down when the weather gets extremely bad. Where I reside it rains a lot so I have adapted with a modified Veltop Windshield and Cover attachment from France.The Veltop's Fiberglass Rods broke too often so I replaced them by using stainless steel CB whip antennas cut to the right length attached to the top of the windshield going through the upper cover and attaching to the back pack which attaches to the rear of the bikes seat.
Oil Prices- when oil supply due to fracking technology causes an increase of supply gas prices go down. Now combine this with lack of demand due to increase in electric car sales and oil/gasoline will be cheaper than even now. This will cause many to continue to favor gas powered cars .
I have kind of a gypsy soul I love to travel see new things always curious what's around the corner I'm never going to be home always exploring for little to no cost I'm overjoyed
How many more power plants would we need? I have 3 within 5 miles. Coal, gas, and trash to steam. Being north does not give us solar options and not enough wind/ open space for wind turbines.
Solar options? Use *vertical* panels. Take advantage of *extremely* long days in winter? Kind of like..... www.dezeen.com/2017/08/23/copenhagen-international-school-c-f-moller-architects-12000-solar-panels-denmark/ (Solar can be MORE efficient in cooler conditions)
This is the first vid I see that looks at the future EV market rationally and then makes a rational prediction. All other vids are much more conservative, but are based on hunches, not facts. The predictions here may still be off by a few years, but the ball park figures are right. In fact, with subsidies on EVs, costs may drop even more quickly, because battery costs fall with a rate determined by numbers produced, not amount of time that has passed. I would love to see the end of oil so soon.
If you think about it, EVs actually predate ICE cars. In 1820, Faraday demonstrated the first electric motor and the first 4-stroke engine was shown by Otto in 1876. Improvements in battery technology are making EVs more usable. However, improvements in ICE vehicles are happening all the time so this makes me wonder which will dominate and when.
Please tell me where will we get magnets for all these vehicles motors ?.... magnetic minerals resources ... As far as I know research into new materials is far beyond research on EV vehicles...Comment only if you have a slightly idea about the topic
Sadly still has disadvantages: 1. Very slow to "fill the tank" (charge), compared to Gasoline. 2. Very few places to be able to "fill the tank" (charge). Doing it at home isn't always possible. The house isn't always placed alone on the ground. many live in high buildings with other people. 3. The current batteries tech is based on lithium, right? I remember that it becomes harder to mine it. It must have a way to recycle it or to use a different, renewable material. Mining for the batteries also cause pollution. I just wish for an even better tech. Maybe something based on a common material as fuel. Maybe solar, maybe water, maybe air...
1. Stagnation fallacy - Battery charge times will continue to improve dramatically (supercharge and future solid state) 2. Home, work and high rises parking lots will all be equipped for charging in the future. 3. Non - issue. Do you think your oil is pollution free in the extraction, transport and refining processes? I am glad I could help alleviate your unfounded fears
Ok I love the video, but let's not kid ourselves, my Tesla has required a lot of maintenance. Still love it and would never buy a petrol car again, but let's not kid ourselves, especially when you mention model X :)
It means more, much more than just saving money. We will have clean air in our cities! Less noise, since these cars produce no noise!! I guess we are, finally, leaving a very DISRUPTIVE age.
I believe his numbers are overly optimistic in terms of time, and monies. To say EVs will revolutionize a century old system of surface transportation in fourteen years isn't realistic. The existing infrastructure (exclusive of the oil industry) is too intense to be redirected in that period of time. The service industry, auto (new) part manufacturers, replacement part manufacturers & vendors, etc. would all be highly diminished or entirely collapsed - effectively eliminating several million jobs, globally. The elimination of employment at this magnitude will create a severe reduction in the sales of new surface surface transportation. The higher cost of acquisition coupled with a severe reduction in employment surely renders this fourteen year revolution unrealistic, not to mention devastating to the world economy.
the problem is that all this companies that nake parts fix cars so on are actually not producing anything, in the end they can give way to much better stuff. nobody likes oil companies anymore and all the pollution its produced with the cars but lets see as you said how quick it can go.
Elimination of jobs in a massive scale is already here, and it's going to be a massacre in the next decade. Artificial intelligence is coming for all jobs, no exceptions. There's only one solution, universal basic income.
Wonderful and insightful presentation but I disagree on one point, the plug-in hybrid with 75 - 100 mile range will come before the industry goes all EV. I drive a 2019 Honda Insight hybrid and I know I will no longer own a traditional gasoline powered vehichle again, if nothing else the 55 miles per gallon I get driving in town or driving in traffic makes the EV the first step in the right direction imo.
The American car companies will go belly up. They cant afford to jump completely into EVs because they need to protect as much of their free cash flow as possible with ICE cars. It is a losing proposition and they are dead men walking but dont realize it yet. Or perhaps they do.
One issue though. With global urbanization, where average Joe is going to charge that EV? Vast majority of people don't have a luxury of a garage. Unless charging EV takes roughly same time to charge as to fill the tank of gasoline engine, EV will not go mainstream.
Isn't factoring in the fact that 33k for a car still sounds like a lot to a lot of people. Also, "10-100x less maintenance costs". ??? Where did he get this statistic one of the bad things about new cars is the constant failure of electronics, absolutely no longevity.
How many oil changes, transmission fluid changes, timing belt changes, tune-ups, emission system fixes etc do you think you will need to do with your EV? ZERO. That's how he gets that and he is correct.
Are we capable of producing large amount of energy without Coal Plant/Nuclear Plant to cater to everyone's need once Electric vehicle numbers starts rising in automotive industry?
Yes. Going all electric on the road only adds something like 20 or 30 % to the electricity demand. The growth of renewable energy can accommodate that if current trends continue.
I'm all for this, but there are two problems. Battery technology is not increasing as rapidly as needed, and electric production still requires fossil fuels.
Not really a problem. Battery capacity and prices are progressing very rapidly (capacity up, prices down) so I am not sure why you think that other than being misinformed. Secondly, nobody ever said that EVs are carbon free but they are far less carbon intensive. The amount of CO2 emitted to drive 1000 miles in an average ICE vehicle is far higher than the CO2 generated from production of the electricity used to power an EV 1000 miles. Not even close. Dont forget that electrical production is a blend of Nuclear, Nat Gas, WInd, Solar and coal. Gasoline is always gasoline. Nothing renewable about that.
18 moving parts...I'm not sure I agree.....4 wheel bearings, 4 struts, 6 calipers,1 electric motor main (3 if you have all wheel drive), 4 solenoids for door locks, 4 solenoids for the door handles, a pump for the coolant, blower motor for the heat, motor for the wipers...if you just look at the suspension there is like 5+ moving parts x 4 = 20. I'm sure there are a lot more...I'd guess more like 100 ish...but for sure less then a combustion engine car.
Yeah, that's oversimplification by him. In fact EV have around 100 moving parts while ICE cars 1000+ moving parts. So 1 to 10 is still a huge difference.
Specific to the *differences* in the power/ drive system. But you know that. 2 motor bearings. 4-6(?) fixed reduction gears, 2 bearings each. Everything after that is common with an ICE.
A lot of our neighbors won't have jobs fixing mufflers, radiators, car parts, oil changes anymore. Will need far fewer employees to build EVs too. Great cars with much fewer jobs to service and build. I have an EV. Am concerned about jobs.
True thats what has normally happened in the past but if transport gets cheaper goods will also and pepole will buy more meaning businesses needing to hire more pepole. So I think jobs will shift like they have done in the past there are now more jobs in the service sector , the entertainment industry , web and software development , health and safety , nurses and care workers , delivery drivers and as a result of all the extra trafic probly road maintenance. The problem i think is the next 20 years as pepole have to start again in another industry and you get a larger mismatch of the specific skills pepole have and the skills wanted.
Bob Owen....We'll tuff luck for them pal! I know that not all mechanics are crooks, however, I can't tell you when in my lifetime, I took my car to a mechanic and didn't feel that they were ripping me off and over charging me. So, I have no sympathy for these road bandits. Like I said, it isn't all of them, but it's sort of like trying to find and honest politician. At some point, you get the idea that they are all crooks or that they all lie a little, it's just part of the job. Same goes for mechanics. You have a mechanic shop on every block here in Nashville, and they are all competing for work. And they rationalize their thievery and tell themselves that they are providing for their families by over charging us. But I am going all electric soon, and selling all of my gas powered cars. So, to all of you dishonest mechanics, and you know who you are! You killed the goose that lay the golden eggs! Maybe you will think of this fact while being unemployed or waiting tables, which by the way, is a very good job.
The jobs lost from the elimination of the gasoline car would shift over into other spheres of economic activity just like the horse and buggy industry shifted over to the gasoline car.
We aren't doing anyone any favors by having people spending their lives learning vocations in doomed industries. Better to have people train to maintain the systems that will replace the old tech. Power electronics, renewables technologies will displace the system we have now.
Bob Owen Robots are taking over every section of jobs. Companies don't think about the people they think of the money. But, nothing can be done about it.
There are still a few caveats to current EVs regarding convenience, which R&D groups hopefully will find a way to either reduce or remove entirely. If you want to go on long road trips, you will have to add extra charging time into the equation, which will probably still deter some ICE owners from going all in EV. Also, the people living in apartment buildings usually do not have the possibility of plugging in at home in their own garage, so they will be dependent on charging at public charging spots. Until charging time can get to a point, where it takes no more than 5 minutes to fill up the battery to 100%, only people with their own garage will benefit from EVs in terms of convenience. Hydrogen driven vehicles are currently the only EVs to offer refueling in the manner of ICE vehicles. But the production of hydrogen (as far as I have heard, so I might be wrong) is not a very green process. Also, the infrastructure is still lacking, so these type of EVs might end up as abandonware. One thing is pretty sure, though. Unless car manufacturers really screw up and make truly faulty cars, electric vehicles WILL succeed in disrupting the automotive industry as well as the oil industry. And since a lot of the stuff happening in, say, Middle Eastern countries can be traced back to Western interests manipulating foreign politics (thereby causing conflicts) to get their hands on the oil, we might actually see a decrease in conflicts in these places. Of course, lithium for batteries will now be the new gold to fight for... Whatever country holds huge deposits of lithium better be wary of strange nations wanting in on these deposits...
I don't know how important this is because it wasn't covered. But a lot of car companies if not all, are 'charging you' to hire the battery. And a diesel car can actually compete with this cost, especially if you factor in a lot of the new under developed hassles that come with EVs.
There are still two of problems around buttery. one, duration. you need to exchange to new one for every three years. two, speed of charge. you need 10 hours for 80 percent. and there is problem of forgetfulness. you will forget to charge rarely but it's critical. until these problems get rid, we should call hybrid car as electronics car.
I have 3 EVs - a 2014, 2015 and 2018. All on their original batteries with little to no range loss. Charging on 110V at home is slow, but can easily be done over night. Much more convenient than stopping at a gas station. Charging at a DC fast charger is slower than filling up a gas tank, but I can get an 80% charge in 20-30 minutes, so I think your 10 hour claim is off by a bit. Batteries and charging are improving rapidly, the cost and charge time disadvantages compared to ICE cars will be gone soon. And the maintenance and fuel cost advantages are real. I get about 40 miles for every $1 of electricity charging at home with a car that does 0-60 mph in 4 seconds. That's the equivalent cost of getting 100 mpg at $2.50/gallon.
Yeah. As soon as they invent a new type of battery. "The battery industry currently uses 42 percent of global cobalt production, a critical metal for Lithium-ion cells. The remaining 58 percent is used in diverse industrial and military applications (super alloys, catalysts, magnets, pigments…) that rely exclusively on the material." Most of it is found in Africa and the mining companies are owned by the Chinese mostly.
"The outcome of the Clean Disruption is that by 2030 • All new vehicles will be electric. • All new vehicles will be autonomous (self-driving). • Oil will be obsolete. • Coal, natural gas and nuclear will be obsolete. • 80+ per cent of parking spaces will be obsolete. • Individual car ownership will be obsolete. • All new energy will be provided by solar (and wind)" Taking into account that in practically all the countries oil, coal and gas supply the majority of the primary energy consumed, I doubt that in 2030 the oil demand will be zero. In fact, more investment will be needed to provide the new oil demand, specially with the initial glut caused by the current pandemic. This is a little wishful thinking.
how much more electricity is required to replace all fuel ICE with EV by year 2025? and how will this electricity be produced? there is total oil consumption demand shift from oil to electric power. the electricity tariff would go sky high in next few years which already not affordable by average household. consequently, the problem of oil industry would become problem of power industry. cheapest and largest power production is nuclear as in Europe.
@@markplott4820 Mark - thanks for finally one enlightened comment on this video. I have gone through and rebutted my ass off but I think your one comment here is better than all of my rebuttals combined. Thanks for your work here sir!
How can I drive to my daughter's house 1000 miles away in an EV when I averaging about 600 miles a day in a gas car. Maybe I can rent a trailer with a spare battery pack to take with me.