The Electric Vehicle Disruption - End Of Oil by 2030 

I don't get why this video has only 229k views. Any manager in German autoindustry should have watched this. Instead they were busy manipulating exhaust emission tests, while sleeping on the wheel.

This is the most informative video I've ever seen about EV, Solar, Electric Storage and what it implies for future.

I cant wait to come back to this in 5 years and laugh with all of you about how all these companies went under because of this disruption. Go Tesla GO!

Isn't it amazing how we're pretty much bang on his prediction? It's also amazing how much people want to cling on to their beliefs, regardless of the evidence to the contrary.

Watching this in 2019 and wow this guy prediction is right on. I got a Tesla in 2018 and I can’t imagine going back to driving a dinosaur gas car. “By 2030 game over for gas car companies” Nice!

We live in exciting times.

I've been an EV driver for 4 years. I have ice cars and don't drive them anymore. it has really messed my head up because I'm a hard core car guy. I just don't see the need to drop money in the tank when I can drive for almost nothing.

Bring it on! About time.

He is right about that it's not happening in the future but it's happening now. My next car will be an EV. The last car I purchased, I bought a used car that has about 7 years left to drive. I planed it out so by around 2020 to 2022 it will be time to replace that with an EV. I am good even with a 150 mile range. If I have to drive anything more than that once in a while, I don't have any problem taking an hour break to re-charge the EV. Also, getting solar panels. Can't wait to see all cars go electric. Good Riddance to oil.

FINALLY, the end of oil companies and ALL the problems that they create! This was an excellent lecture.

Thank you Mr Seba. i love this presentation.

Great topic - I enjoyed the presentation very much. I would like to see more in-depth analysis on the fall-out of the change from fossil to EV transportation. As a consumer (and an early-adopter), I have a Tesla and am loving it every time I get into it. The whole impact of the advancement of a new technology (EV) versus the maturing of the incumbent technology (ICE) is going to cause a lot of huge waves. Sure some jobs will be transformed, but not without a lot of pain in the gas industry. The current ICE automobile is so heavily subsidized and taxed at the same time that unraveling this won't be fast enough to keep up with the technological changes. You might have noticed the ripples caused by oil prices when only a small glut was experienced. Wait until this glut becomes larger as a result of EV adoption! Along the same trend line - the price of oil will hit a cross-point where there is so much glut yet the cost of oil exploration and refining becomes prohibitive. Finally, the modern factories (like Tesla) that will build these EV's are much more modern and robotically-assisted that I doubt auto-workers and oil workers can all get jobs in electric power generation/transmission and EV production 1 for 1. I would love to know how people will make out during this critical transition.

I had a hard time believing end of oil by 2030.....realizing all oil companies in the world as of 2017 are in massive debt and close to default. ...and this with 2.2 trillion dollars in government subsidies. . It may be sooner

OMFG I want my graduation (~2023-2024) gift for college to be an entry-level EV (well, if Filipino politicians would start thinking rationally). This is just amazing!

Would be great to have a world not choking on toxic vehicular emissions. Also this will lead to an economic boom in oil importing countries when their oil bills reduce with falling oil prices. Cant wait! Also fu OPEC!!

Thank you sir, loved the speech, i'm also optimistic about the next few years.

Bang ON target. So glad I invested when I did after listening to you Tony.

Meanwhile, Putin is scrambling to try and reorganize OPEC. Too little, too late. When my 2009 Camry dies it's EV for me.

If I were one of the Koch brothers I would be very worried indeed.

Excellent, well done. I subscribed.

WHERE IS THE REST OF THE VIDEO SIR???????? WHERE IS QUESTION TIME??????? GREAT LECTURE, LOVING IT.

Well, now its March 2021, so we need to cut some slack around the 2020 tipping point. The pendulum is starting to swing towards EVs, but a little slower than Tony's chart. Still, close enough

Okay that was an eye opener. We're gonna need a lot of batteries...

I for one will never buy another ice car

Bring it on. It is over for IC. I just hope my pension fund has got the sense to get out of big oil fast....

We must to accelerate the process. Great talk!

Almost spot on.

I have driven EV’s for 11 years. I have two and never drive anything else. It is fascinating how so many people think our future is in oil and gasoline. I hope the transition will be as quick as Mr Seba says (although I will miss being the one pioneer when EV cars are normal!) I wouldn’t be surprised if our highly conservative Australian government and big oil companies cling on to 20th Century technology as long as possible and that the timeline will be slower in Australia than is discussed here. An excellent presentation nevertheless.

Tony Seba is brilliant🙏👍

Awesome.

My "go-cart" business shutdown, my project now is I'm trying to convert my "go-carts" into a comfortable mini-sedan. 😊

Well it's now 2020 and the world is using more oil than ever before. Fairy tales are so nice.

Awesome. I hope you’re right

The best is to come in this world I hope.

Excellent video. Certainly debunks the peakoil theory

2024 UPDATE: Dead on! That's why I love going back to older videos and checking to see if the predictions were dead on... And the answer is yes!

EV second hand car market is already here ,you can get a Nissan Leaf for £7000 on ebay already .

I'm a oil tycoon and own some oil wells in the Texas. This made me cry :(

ICE fueling stations will be the first to give up if they are no longer earning enough and that will accelerate the transition to EV even faster.

How many more power plants would we need? I have 3 within 5 miles. Coal, gas, and trash to steam. Being north does not give us solar options and not enough wind/ open space for wind turbines.

7 years later…. Nailed every price prediction; including denser batteries that cost 1/5 what they did, when he made this. 🏆

Why does an EV cost only 3 times more than the battery? Don't drivetrains only make up around 1/4 of the total vehicle costs?

When I drive my 200 mile electric car to vacation in the mountains and there is no charging station at my hotel or camp ground when I get there that's a problem. However I do believe I will own an electric at some point in my life. Free charging will stop but fast once the demand even slightly increases.

Great presentation!! I want an EV 1tonne van. That would have to be the most useful vehicle ever.

Watching this in 2022 your predictions are very accurate (taking 2yrs of COVID into account )

I have kind of a gypsy soul I love to travel see new things always curious what's around the corner I'm never going to be home always exploring for little to no cost I'm overjoyed

Not to mention electric motorcycles and bicycles. We could also use an end (or serious contraction) of parking lots, denser cities, and shorter commutes.

Beautiful news

So, looking at the cost of EV graph, Can we say we already reached 30k EV and didn't have to wait until 2020 ?

I remember a textbook from my highschool days: "Automotive Technology". It had a diagram published by the SAE. As I recall, 30% went straight out the tailpipe. They listed several other losses but most came from mechanical friction. Engine, transmission, rear-end gears, accessories, windage from the crankshaft, etc. and in the end all you got at the rear wheels was 15%. BUT...it gets WORSE than this when you consider that the actual combustion efficiency of iso-octane is grossly inefficient right from the start! I forget what it was...something like less than 60% of the thermal capacity of the fuel. So, driving gasoline driven cars is so incredibly STUPID!! Yeah, we need to switch to electric vehicles!!

Music to my ears.

So here we are in 2019, how’s the plan, is it on schedule still ?

Thank you. I always enjoy presentations by Tony Seba and Rethink X. I'm looking forward to an update to the book on transportation and more presentations on precision fermentation.

Finally , thank you Great information you share. Why are'nt we flying ? oh , too much smog ( give a hoot...dont pollute !

great. we definitely want electrical vehicles.

Amazing video. That is the truth!

Interesting how the 4 key categories is exactly Elon Musk’s plan.

when oil is no more needed by the world it will restore balance from rich and poor country..

So exciting !

Well... It was a good theory.

If there is some kind of energy transition going on why is it year over year more and more FF is burned?

In right-hand drive countries that are fulfilled by cars of Japanese automakers, it is not end by 2030, but 2050 or after that.

I hope Tony's right! Today March 17, 2022...marks the 6th anniversary of this video!

Jan 13, 2023 just watched this. Quite interesting

Please tell me where will we get magnets for all these vehicles motors ?.... magnetic minerals resources ... As far as I know research into new materials is far beyond research on EV vehicles...Comment only if you have a slightly idea about the topic

Ok I love the video, but let's not kid ourselves, my Tesla has required a lot of maintenance. Still love it and would never buy a petrol car again, but let's not kid ourselves, especially when you mention model X :)

He is a bit over optimistic on the price drop speed and ICE vehicles will (sadly) persist but he makes a lot of great points.

You guys are missing the point if you think buying an electric is about saying on gas, the benefit is so much more then gas.

By 2030? That should be enough time for the oil industry to rebrand and dominate a new industry.

Really enjoyed your video. Let's check Avasva plans also

I already use an electric vehicle. It gets 956 MPGe from my calculations. It's far more energy efficient than electric passenger cars because it weighs a lot less and doesn't squander using that electrical energy on moving a big heavy box.It's an electric motorized assist bicycle and it's inexpensive too.

Back to the Future.

Oil Prices- when oil supply due to fracking technology causes an increase of supply gas prices go down. Now combine this with lack of demand due to increase in electric car sales and oil/gasoline will be cheaper than even now. This will cause many to continue to favor gas powered cars .

how about the Toxic Acid from the battery ? where in the world you dump the battery in the future ?

what will top gear be called in 2050?

Speaker doesn't waste your time. Ignore him at your own peril.

It means more, much more than just saving money. We will have clean air in our cities! Less noise, since these cars produce no noise!! I guess we are, finally, leaving a very DISRUPTIVE age.

with only 20 moving parts, all big companies will be able to build their own cars, Sony, Samsung, Apple, etc.

but what about producing an EV. I heard it's much more energy consuming to build an EV rather than a standard car. Anybody can explain? and what about the batteries, they need to be changed and they are highly polluting

Are we capable of producing large amount of energy without Coal Plant/Nuclear Plant to cater to everyone's need once Electric vehicle numbers starts rising in automotive industry?

This is the first vid I see that looks at the future EV market rationally and then makes a rational prediction. All other vids are much more conservative, but are based on hunches, not facts. The predictions here may still be off by a few years, but the ball park figures are right. In fact, with subsidies on EVs, costs may drop even more quickly, because battery costs fall with a rate determined by numbers produced, not amount of time that has passed. I would love to see the end of oil so soon.

watch it 2021

how much more electricity is required to replace all fuel ICE with EV by year 2025? and how will this electricity be produced? there is total oil consumption demand shift from oil to electric power. the electricity tariff would go sky high in next few years which already not affordable by average household. consequently, the problem of oil industry would become problem of power industry. cheapest and largest power production is nuclear as in Europe.

totally possible. but we will need way more battery producers.......

Bye bye OPEC! Bye bye terror! Bye bye wars!

I think the oil nation they have gaining a lot from nations around the world. paying their bills fuel often and repair etc its now. EV futuristic actually best for the environment, avoiding pollution, etc. imagine where heavyweight construction vehicles, Garbage vehicles,Driving schools, commercial government operate without fuel west or money insufficient amount of gaining. I better start future business befitting from these kind if technology as soon possible. thumbs up$$$$%

Wonderful and insightful presentation but I disagree on one point, the plug-in hybrid with 75 - 100 mile range will come before the industry goes all EV. I drive a 2019 Honda Insight hybrid and I know I will no longer own a traditional gasoline powered vehichle again, if nothing else the 55 miles per gallon I get driving in town or driving in traffic makes the EV the first step in the right direction imo.

I'm all for this, but there are two problems. Battery technology is not increasing as rapidly as needed, and electric production still requires fossil fuels.

18 moving parts...I'm not sure I agree.....4 wheel bearings, 4 struts, 6 calipers,1 electric motor main (3 if you have all wheel drive), 4 solenoids for door locks, 4 solenoids for the door handles, a pump for the coolant, blower motor for the heat, motor for the wipers...if you just look at the suspension there is like 5+ moving parts x 4 = 20. I'm sure there are a lot more...I'd guess more like 100 ish...but for sure less then a combustion engine car.

Only thing is that GM is losing money on the bolt. Tesla is getting a 20-30% margins on the model 3 and it will only improve.

He’s off by a couple years but definitely the right trajectory

A complete pollution free environment for better life. Longer life of the machine as compared to the conventional one's with Hassel less maintenance.

There are still two of problems around buttery. one, duration. you need to exchange to new one for every three years. two, speed of charge. you need 10 hours for 80 percent. and there is problem of forgetfulness. you will forget to charge rarely but it's critical. until these problems get rid, we should call hybrid car as electronics car.

he is smart.guy

best car with a price

if i live to be 100 i will see the end of oil based transportation but my grandsons will benefit greatly

If you think about it, EVs actually predate ICE cars. In 1820, Faraday demonstrated the first electric motor and the first 4-stroke engine was shown by Otto in 1876. Improvements in battery technology are making EVs more usable. However, improvements in ICE vehicles are happening all the time so this makes me wonder which will dominate and when.

May 2020 now. The prediction has not yet materialised.

*NO OIL.* *NO ELECTRIC AUTOMOBILES.* *NO OIL.* *NO FOOD AT THE GROCERY STORE.* *NEED I SAY MORE?*

:)) we are in the tiping point in 2020 and people still chose ace cars, electric cars are just 1% from sales