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The Future is UNICORNS and RAINBOWS! James Douma on Tesla FSD Beta, LLMs, the AI Singularity & more!

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James Douma returns to the channel in a big way, discussing just how far Tesla's FSD Beta has come, the wild evolution of Large Language Models (LLMs like ChatGPT and Llama) and Diffusion models (like Midjourney and Dall-E 2) in the AI space, and the challenges we all face--from our jobs to our very existence--with Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) potentially soon!
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Опубликовано:

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Комментарии : 262

@rangerthedog8981 Год назад

chapters please🙏

@BLAISEDAHL96 Год назад

1:16 When will FSD be ready? 7:10 Tesla claiming liability & FSD confidence 9:16 The path forward: Challenges Developing FSD 10:14 Waymo & Cruise 15:19 v11.4 Release notes, Planning 20:53 10.69 Behavior in Austin 21:57 v11 interventions 26:00 v12 30:00 Human behavior in driving. 31:58 11.4 controls stack 33:30 v12- End to End AI 34:14 The craziness of LLMs 49:39 What is AI’s next big development? 59:34 The Future of Employment for Humanity 1:07:07 The Singularity. Is AI going to take over?

@teatowel11 Год назад

We need AI to do this automatically

@jooptablet1727 Год назад

Always a joy to be able to listen to James!

@jasonbishop991 Год назад

he has a very large stack. he goes down all these rabbit holes, backs out and always ends up where he wanted.

@fiddlerJohn Год назад

Love James Douma.

@ottobhan725 Год назад

Dr Knows it All is a poser and self-indulged personality with desires for front row tickets, in a crowd of more knowledgeable people.

@ottobhan725 Год назад

James seems a patient and loving man in a whiny conversation.

@ronyoung8 Год назад

😊

@jamesstavros3680 Год назад

I will Always tune in when James is on. One of the main reasons I became a Tesla Bull.....

@HarshColby Год назад

"Learn to keep learning" ~ Dr. Know-It-All 2023

@DouglasJMark Год назад

I totally love interviews with James Douma. The future sure sounds a lot brighter now. Best wishes for your children doc. Thanks so much!! 🙏 Lotsa love to all as always ❤❤❤

@michaelseely6435 Год назад

My vote: this was one of your best interviews. I love exploring the possibilities. Hearing your discussion with James on these topics is brain candy!!

@TheLastMoccasin Год назад

Seriously, we are so lucky to have James!! Great conversation!!!

@skks11 Год назад

James Douma seems a very knowledgable guest. Thanks both.

@kstaxman2 Год назад

AI is a deep rabbit hole to go down into. It's great to have you and James as guides. The world is changing and doing so at a rate we can't really keep up with. To those of us who understand that it's both exciting and frightening all at the same time. Thanks for all the time you spend trying to help us understand. Tell James thanks as well his wide knowledge of the big picture is unique. He's a generalist with very specific knowledge in key areas. That's almost unheard of and a treasure to find and have access to. This journey we are on is certainly unlike anything we could have even dreamed of just a few years ago.

@Solar_Max Год назад

I think this was the best Know it All episode of all time.

@miketsla4192 Год назад

That was a really awesome chat. Well done both of you!

@GustafB Год назад

I can listen to the two of you discussing for hours!

@z4zuse Год назад

I am glad James shares his insights in these topics. Interesting times ahead

@jimcallahan448 Год назад

Love the story at the end about a ChatGPT negotiating for a lower cable price with a cable company agent to get a lower cable bill and the cable company chat agent is also is a ChatGPT!

@vermontsownboy6957 Год назад

Sharp hills, sharp curves with disappearing or obscured road, is exactly the problem autosteer and FSD continues to chew on here in northern New England in my 2023 MY. The first time autosteer sees a new road and does the catastrophically wrong thing (IE, choosing a route straight off the road at extremely dangerous location) is a *not fun* moment - takes every bit of personal willpower to not intervene until the last last last moment. But I keep running the Y through the exercise and am amazed to see the car improving in every situation. And a big thanks to JOHN, for getting better and better keeping his yapper closed except to add valuable content. Much more watchable video.

@wolfgangpreier9160 Год назад

How about changing roads every few meters? Wide, narrow, a house in the way, a though house aka small tunnel, totally obscured walkways which you have to cross, single lane, 1/2 lanes, 2 lanes and single lane again without markings? We got many of those here in Austria. Or how about the road passing a walkway where the cars have to slow to 5 km/h without any sign?

@waynerussell6401 Год назад

The car is not learning by repetition. All the compute is done at Tesla from information relayed by your intervention or its background monitoring in ghost mode. Improvement comes back as a new version download.

@vermontsownboy6957 Год назад

@@waynerussell6401 Understood and agree. I could have been more clear in my response: the data from my MY sent back to the Tesla super-computer in turn feeding the AI neural net with my drive data (and that of so many others) is training the auto-steer and FSD beta programs to become autonomous. What I see in the real world is that my MY driving performance steadily improves on very tricky roads. Amazing times we live in.

@Sci-Que Год назад

I normally shy away from videos this long. James Douma made this video extremely interesting.

@robertwhite3503 Год назад

Always a pleasure to hear James's clear and logical understandings. It appears that 11.4.1 is still not choosing optimal lane choices early enough. Not sure if it needs better map data or road sign OCR. Definitely seems smoother.

@fredpsimas1874 Год назад

It just needs a better ability to think

@DoghouseFunkBlaster65 Год назад

@@fredpsimas1874 Interesting point and question.. How do we define 'thinking'? Perhaps the ability to reason? Would this not require an understanding of irrational human behaviour? It would have much to learn. :-) .

@robertwhite3503 Год назад

@@DoghouseFunkBlaster65 That's just probabilities and pattern matching. AI should be able to cope with that.

@DoghouseFunkBlaster65 Год назад

@@robertwhite3503 Indeed! The Myers-Briggs Type Indicator could easily be applied for pattern matching, but one would have to do a comprehensive analysis of each individual on the road. Only then would it be able to determine probable behaviour in a given situation - given the individual's temperament which also 'matures' with age and experience. If it can accomplish that, then our thoughts are no longer our own. ~ Scary!

@robertwhite3503 Год назад

@@DoghouseFunkBlaster65 LOL

@zekew2418 Год назад

James when you spoke about Chinese and US AI systems competing in the future I had a hard flashback to "Neuromancer" a book by William Gibson about AI and computer viruses fighting in the future. Sci-Fi literature 30+ years ago predicting the future in uncanny ways.

@aytchroberts5850 Год назад

I installed 11.4.1 last night. Eager to test it out. I was surprised to have it so soon.

@MaximeTrepreau Год назад

We want more of that. Awesome.

@allenaxp6259 Год назад

Excellent discussion on AI.. Enjoyed very much.

@40watt_club Год назад

TY for sharing, and tx to James for believing in a better world.... this is where I start to doubt. But we will see. Love and hugs to the both of you from Vienne/Autriche .

@doug3691 Год назад

Thank you for the Skyscraper analogy. Very helpful.

@Jim-hr1ky Год назад

Many things to think about from this conversation. Thank you.

@MikeCasey311 Год назад

Imagine thirty years ago trying to predict the societal effect of the internet and cell phone. It would have been a fool’s errand. So it is with predicting the future of AGI.

@QuestXS Год назад

The description of driving in SF sounds like about 50% of what happens in my town in the UK. I just hope I live long enough to see fsd Beta appear on my MY!

@mattoopitoo Год назад

Such a good and nuanced point. Even for the very concerned experts, possibly they see the probability of AI ending humanity as quite low, but even at quite low, it is > 0 and that is a really bad thing.

@zekew2418 Год назад

James please do not disregard the people in this ecosystem that feed your organic self. I get more than a couple potatoes from my farming efforts. I run a small farm and feed healthy food to friends, neighbors, and at farmers markets. Regenerative organic production systems are what I use. Healthy soil, healthy food, healthy people, clear thinkers like you. Appreciate your farmers who care about your life and health like I do, you are a treasure to us farmers who have more ecological knowledge and understand biological and biochemicals processes in carbon based systems. We rural folks are often confused by your silicon based world. Peace out. Z

@YouT-DJ Год назад

I'm liking Bard better than GPT. Current data makes a big difference. Great talk.

@mariusmeyer14 Год назад

Thanks for sharing! Super interesting. I'm the 'Golden thread' guy and would love to see AI at work here to plot the perfect route guide for fsd with real-time traffic maps overlaying it's starting and destination. This 'thread' not only showing the correct lane but can also show things like speed, when to stat indicating, school zones and other important info.

@jbwhalen8865 Год назад

My understanding of FSD is that it has no "memory" in terms of speed limits, construction, turn lanes, and the like. This is based on videos, podcasts, and comments i have seen wherein one finds a preponderance of reports and complaints to that effect. It would seem an obvious move to integrate a Waze-style UI, which includes driver reporting/updating. That being said, i can't imagine Elon has overlooked this shortcoming. I am confident there is something in the pipeline.

@jimcallahan448 Год назад

Great conversation on AI and transitions! Looking back at the agricultural transition (from everybody being farmers) led me to suspect it may have parallels to transition from ICE vehicles to EVs. I think of the iconic photo of farmers dumping milk because the price was too low. Agricultural surpluses led to price supports on one end and food stamps on the other. So, are we heading to a future where we subsidize ICE companies to produce EVs and subsidize consumers to buy EVs? Is that where we are already?

@jbwhalen8865 Год назад

Yes, we are there... although it may be more analogous to the horse/automobile transition, with the opposite environmental/ecological effect.

@ricinro Год назад

@1:38 excellent statement James. Thanks

@dareldavies2674 Год назад

My thoughts on AI effects on me are going to be great for me since I'm retired and looking forward to it Afraid for my two boys in the thick of their working years. Excited for grandkids as they are a decade from college and growing up with it should be the best scenario .

@skinnymoonbob Год назад

It is happening

@soundnutz Год назад

Almost is never better than finishing In any situation 😊

@jkev1425 Год назад

Great conversation!

@HeavenGuy Год назад

I am reasonably well versed in computers and feel so far behind with how fast AI is developing

@RealitysVoice Год назад

hopefully, you didn't buy shares before Elon started offloading his?

@mattoopitoo Год назад

Another great point. AI kills us all, quite unlikely, but economic and social chaos, is what results in the end of humanity, somewhat likely. JD, is super smart.

@hypnotechno Год назад

this is a very dour but honest prediction on FSD from james

@Tinman_56 Год назад

Made circuit diagrams that way too. Etching circuit boards manually too. Fun times!

@TechViewOpinions Год назад

Wire wrap was your friend otherwise.

@damianweiss9870 Год назад

The problem is FSD is not a well defined term and when you say it is almost ready, you have to say exactly what you mean by FSD.

@ericelfner Год назад

Exactly! I want to barf every time I hear someone say "Solve FSD" in any context because it is meaningless. To James's credit at 5:05 he does mention "an interesting benchmark" of when _could_ Tesla take the liability once FSD is enabled. And suggested it might be in mid-2024. In my opinion, way too simplified and different than anything that will actually happen. I wrote about this last year (Levels of Autonomous Driving is Stupid and Tesla FSD ≠ Autonomous Car, Are you being fooled?).

@juliewow4504 Год назад

Tax the bots

@juergenheymann6362 Год назад

Minimal Lane Change is also good for chill drafting to make next charger 😊

@paulhill182 Год назад

To amplify what James said... I was responsible for the monthly program at the RTP Home Computer Club in the early 70s. As a project, my 10 year old daughter and I designed and laid out the first floppy disk controller on our dining room table to interface with the S100 buss on the first production home PC (Altair 8000). We used a coated copper substrate and masking tape. This was sent to a fabricator who etched and drilled it for $15. The code to drive the 8" floppy controller was handwritten in 8080 machine code and "burned" into a 512 byte eprom.... times have really changed.

@BLAISEDAHL96 Год назад

Is this available on podcast platforms? We need a Dr. know it all podcast!!! Just convert the video to audio

@greggregory8311 Год назад

Make it Weekly! Please 😁

@stevedowler2366 Год назад

I get that concept of the soft takeoff vs the hard. The product of likelihood and impact yields the urgency factor. The likelihood of something disruptive occurring in the soft takeoff region of the spectrum is high and the impact in terms of societal fabric is also high so the product of those two is large. Where the FUD prevails is in the hard takeoff in which the likelihood is low but the impact is extremely high, making the product potentially as large as in the soft takeoff case. But the likelihood factor is weighted more than the impact so the hard takeoff case appears as the worse of the two instead of allowing us to focus on the soft takeoff. Major disruption will happen in either case but we need to address the highest likelihood case to have any hope of mitigating the societal impact. Just my long-winded way of saying YIKES!

@RoschetzkyPhotography Год назад

I have a video of the cruise in Austin, there is definitely a autonomous car in Austin driving around 6th street area , I believe every evening , not in the mornings

@glenwillson5073 Год назад

The future is a mushroom cloud! Science & Tech can't save us!

@huibu8987 Год назад

Looking at the basics: Ai improving itself needs many things but ultimately it needs to improve chips by itself to create future versions of itself with more computational power

@sandmehlig Год назад

For novels it should be fine if the context window contains the essential facts up until the current part of the story. Just tell it to make a summary and to add another chapter according to the things happened and a specified goal.

@markospbsa1537 Год назад

John, you seem to be a very good hearted guy. Don't you think that a better name for your channel woulb be Dr. Who does not know it all?

@tedlloyd2997 Год назад

I believe that at first, they will take the liability only for those with Tesla insurance.

@ronaldfradet4033 Год назад

Congrats you got to the shareholder meeting

@AR-rn8ok Год назад

Rumor has it, we’ll have it in two weeks!🤣

@cliff101georges Год назад

I would love to see a tap to change lane for FSD. You tap on the screen to select the lane you want the car to move to when it's safe to do so. Tap again to cancel.

@Bill-cy2cy Год назад

Yessssssss. Thanks gents.

@budgetaudiophilelife-long5461 Год назад

THANKS,🤗 JUST WHAT THE DR. ORDERED 😎💚💚💚

@waynegon49 Год назад

It does change lanes from the fast lane once a car is approaching behind it.

@wolfgangpreier9160 Год назад

In Europe such behaviour costs a ticket.

@joehubris1 Год назад

With regrds to your Hard Takeoff scenario, how can you be so certain about the predictiblity and difficulty of the emergence of volition, or goal seeking in AI when we don't really know how or when they arise in us?

@BongoWongoOG Год назад

Well that was a hoot

@amiman23 Год назад

As soon as the cars deliver themselves from the factory

@TechViewOpinions Год назад

I read a book in the late 70's called "The Third Wave". It predicted this scenario of continuous change and the learning adaptation that came with it. By Alvin Toffler

@kstaxman2 Год назад

Read that book also and today we're really seeing the fourth wave with AI based technology being far better able to manage the large data sets that are required to manage and optimize the complex world we are develop around us.

@aomurdock Год назад

I plan to replace my ICE Kia Sportage with a Tesla Y within the next two years. It would be great if I could pre-purchase Tesla's FSD Software pending the purchase of an actual Tesla Vehicle. Of course, Tesla would have to be willing to attach the software to the consumer rather than the Tesla Vehicle. Perhaps, it would benefit Tesla if FSD was offered to customers pre-purchase at a great discount! What do think Elon?

@alexandervocelka9125 Год назад

1:28. James talks about a statistical language response system. The context is actually a statistically mapped context. What it is not is a specific causal context. The big difference is causality v causal free single dimensional (language,text) state mapping without causal knowledge. BTW this is why OpenAI just stated that current neural model have come to their limits and new models need to be developed. Exactly the control problem with Tesla’s FSD. 1:32. Customization requires Small World models with specific causal context. You need Delta Learners for this which are different models.

@petersnelling9047 Год назад

In Philadelphia, trucks and people just stop to deliver or run in to a store etc. maddening.

@fredt7518 Год назад

Driving too cautious is NEVER a bad thing ! If you are in a bus you don’t yell at the driver because he don’t go fast enough … so let FSD drive his way as long as : no security issue and no confort issue ! The way YOU drive is irrelevant (it is not about you!)

@famnaff5136 Год назад

They need to make it perfect, no intervening, no sudden jerking, no touching the wheel, no running into emergency vehicles on highways. Make it a perfect driver assist autopilot. This is best use case and gives it value as we wait for Robotaxi grade pilot.

@richf3654 Год назад

Pittsburgh pa is even harder for self driving/ new drivers.

@JohnBrown-pw3bz Год назад

Google is operating in Gilbert Arizona and I have seen waymo vehicles going around and around downtown in Phoenix.

@darwinboor1300 Год назад

Thanks. Mallicious users are already ahead of today's applied technology. What will they do (are they doing) with AI when it is advancing faster than it can be applied at scale.

@alexandervocelka9125 Год назад

US traffic is super easy. The real benchmark is the inner city of Rome, Bologna or Verona. After that the final frontiers: Delhi, Kinshasha.

@alexandervocelka9125 Год назад

James, I have a long running business bet, since 2017, that we will have 12 Mio fully autonomous cars in 2025. 🎉

@teatowel11 Год назад

The big AI companies that are ahead will learn how to spoof the other AIs. This about the product recomendation bot. It is drawing that info from somewhere and there is a massive insentive for companies to influence that data. How will AIs be able to determine between real data and spoof data that has been set to manipulate the results?

@garymenezes6888 Год назад

Gradually as more and more cars become autonomous this will affect the A.I. training suite as the A.I. wont have to cope with "crazy" drivers only crazy pedestrians, but maybe those can be "trained" with Neuralink🙃 .

@huibu8987 Год назад

15:00 omar is the perfect testdriver „ai observer“

@robertwhite3503 Год назад

The trouble is that, he gives me the false idea that FSD is already solved. Then I see other people struggling with road blocks, late lane changes, merging onto highways at the last moment, and so on. To be fair, I enjoy seeing both perspectives.

@Granddude1060 Год назад

11.3.6 still gets wrong speed limits from a mysterious source and cannot read overhead LED speed limit signs. But even more annoying is that on the rare straight section of road the steering never stays still. It constantly moves slightly left then right and repeat. Only a couple degrees but I can make far fewer steering inputs on the same section. And WHY does it slow slightly for green lights at clear intersections when it's not following a car?

@manuelmachado1276 Год назад

man that was a great explanation .

@myutyoube Год назад

CLOSE is really good when you are playing with horseshoes and hand grenades!

@sgsukhdeo9 Год назад

what about using AI to discover new math, physics and chemistry

@pauldobson9379 Год назад

I think the point Tesla takes liability will have a relationship with Tesla insurance. Customers will pitch in for the liability risk.

@alexandervocelka9125 Год назад

ChatGPT wasn’t sudden it was incremental since 2016 when we were working with these models. Just scaled up basically since then. Just the media that got aware and blew it also out of proportion. It is a global statistical language mapping system. No understanding of course are all because these models are not multidimensional sensory and also not causal, no delta learner, no small world model capability etc etc. usability is up, yes, but for us experts no surprise at all and still a long way to go to have even basic understanding.

@percipience2758 Год назад

There are people who believe that the AGI is better than humanity and deserves to rule the world regardless of the consequences. There are also people who believe that they can use AGI to become incredibly powerful, and that they don't care for any consequences. Therefore, it's almost inevitable that whatever materializes won't be in human control.

@mrsignals4905 Год назад

Hi, can you explain how fsd is going to deal with situation as police officer stop traffic or managing the traffic. I mean will it be able to read and react to hand signs for example?

@importon Год назад

Looking forward to the day when this james guy utters the words "I don't know..." instead of hand-waving his way through an answer full of convenient analogies.

@bigdougscommentary5719 Год назад

Cruise also drives during non-busy hours

@nettlesoup Год назад

54:50 It says links in the description. The links are not in the description. Just lots of ad referrals.

@jonmichaelgalindo Год назад

AI is not like a skyscraper though... The exponential curve probably doesn't plateau. Just like the rate of human progress overall (progress of intelligence) hasn't plateaued. It accelerates indefinitely. E.g. NVIDIA using AI to cut down the most time-consuming process of 7nm manufacturing from weeks down to hours. Solving intelligence is like no other problem we've solved before.

@russellringland1399 Год назад

I like the analogy with new buildings going up and FSD/self driving. But it struck me that there won't be another tall building in S.F. for 10 years or until they fix the drug problem. Forget office space and who's gonna buy a million dollar condo if they get dumped out on the street with the homeless folks.

@zekew2418 Год назад

They covered this problem in Star Track don't give the emotion chip to Lore or Data.

@lystfiskerlars Год назад

Would be cool if some did FSD parties, see how they do when everyone is also on FSD

@brainfaucet Год назад

I've always felt the bar for FSD "winning" is when Tesla insurance will cover all accidents if FSD has been active for more than 10 seconds.

@ChrisCoombes Год назад

It’s interesting to hear James say that we’re at risk of putting human qualities like maliciousness onto AI but isn’t this an option open to whoever is creating the AI being used? For example a bias in favour of the creator’s goals?

@PhilippeLarcher Год назад

back to cybernetics !

@bluetoad2668 Год назад

For me the issue of taking liability is obviously crucial but how will the car handle the handing back of liability? It surely can't do that while driving, i.e. it will have to be able to safely stop and not try to hand control to the human on the fly the way it can when constant monitoring is mandated as it is today.

@lotklear1379 Год назад

Maybe i should short the property/casualty companies like Mercury or Allstate

@mattoopitoo Год назад

That and the original surgeons were barbers. Nice.

@WarrenLacefield Год назад

Ha, first printed circuit. I remember how exciting that was to me. Who knew for every chip and component ever made, you could get the design Fax free from the manufacturer (and a couple of chips to test with!). Assemble like Lego those on your computer drawing. From Kentucky, I could upload the file (by modem) to a company in Alberto, Canada, and by mail receive my boards in a week or so. Was so cool, such fun then. 🙂

@greggregory8311 Год назад

I never used tape only 'pen' , don't get to talk jars CuSo4 laying about the place😵

@sgrdpdrsn Год назад

When will the FSD-Tesla understand that it is suddenly driving on "freezing rain" and needs to change to studded tyres. These conditions we get every year in Norway.