The New World Cup Format Is Absolutely Insane 

The easiest way to separate teams with identical head-to-head record in the group phase is to incorporate the FIFA Bribe Coefficient. Each team slips a brown envelope to Infantino and whichever amount is greater, that team can progress.

It hurts me to think of how long they considered 16 groups of 3, instead of the very obvious and logical 12 groups of 4.

If Infantino really had the balls, he would jump straight to a 64 team world cup with 16 groups of 4

When i looked up the term "corruption" in the dictionary, next to it stood "FIFA".

Since I have been old enough (Germany 2006), I have watched almost every world cup match possible. With more games in the 2026 group stage than the entirety of the previous tournaments, I'll be missing out on so many games. The current format was perfect, right in the Goldilocks zone.

And Scotland STILL won't be able to qualify for the second stage

A 48 team tournament is just so logistically challenging and overrides the incredible product we get from a 32 team tournament (this format was recently used for the womens world cup and it made it a much better tournament). The obvious answer to football becoming more global is to just make a Europa League type for international competition

The problem with only the group winners (+4) advancing is that a) most teams will be out of the running even before their last game b) the draw would be incredibly crucial - which is already a big issue

Tbf, the new 48-team format for the World Cup is effectively just the Euros but with twice the teams and more than double the matches, right?

Your idea for turning 12 groups into 12 group winners + 4 best second-placers is savage, and I approve, but there's gotta be a better way. Sadly, that way is 8 groups, 32 teams. Maths is maths

And somehow, Thogden will still manage to watch all the World Cup matches.

If this year’s Afcon has shown me one thing, it’s that having best third team places is actually a good thing because it gives teams a fighting chance till the end and serves as a great motivator to push harder

There is basically no point in holding the Oceania qualifiers, It's just going to be an automatic New Zealand slot every time

Money, money, money is all Infantino ever thinks about. He will gladly destroy all the joy of the game in the chase of 💰 🤑

'Meaning 32 teams will still progress'. Missed an opportunity to put a picture of Will Still in there. I expect this level of humour from you. Keep up please (great videos as always, thanks).

You're wrong about the Euro group stages, particularly that France / Germany / Portugal group in Euro 2020. That group ended up being dramatic on the final day, as Germany needed a late equaliser v Hungary just to qualify.

A few notes: 1. Regarding your claim that the "Group of Death" in 2020 was a formality: it wasn't. Hungary only lost out at the last minute and kept it really close against most of the teams. I specifically remember the game against Portugal in fact. 2. Upsets can still happen. Talking about another group stage (you may mention this later, I'm only at minute 24), the group of death in 2014. Costa Rica was definitely the whipping boy coming into the group, yet they ended up winning it outright. It's more unlikely, sure, which does suck, but it's not impossible. 3. One big positive of more teams is that in general this could push the overall standard of football in countries to a higher level. The World Cup will definitely suffer at first, but as the dream to play for their own nation is more realistic now, they won't just go to use an uncle who lived in Qatar or England or whatever for a few months as justification to play for the big countries, but instead play for their actual home nation. One big example is Erling Haaland, who can now carry Norway. It is Fifa so it's a poorly thought out plan, and I do agree with most of what you said, but those are a few points.

The 32 team format is perfect no worry about best third place and all that besides playing in the World Cup should be a privilege not a right

I like the old format better, but ... The old format had 32 teams, and the new format, after the group stage is left with 32 teams. I think that an extra knockout stage increases the probability of a big team messing up. In the new format, the chances of a big team not reaching the ro 16 is higher than the old format.

Qualifying for the World Cup is a prize itself, the 1st time ever Ghana qualified for the WC in 2006, it was a week of celebration.

Alfie providing the breakfast viewing. Thanks mate.

26:21 was clearly directed to Maqwell lol

Alfie, in a world of shorts, reels and tiktoks these viedo essays are a shining light. Thank you

The best we can hope is an AFCON 2023 outcome for the best third placed teams. It was very suspenseful and gave the incredible journey of Ivory Coast to the finals. Smaller countries shocked the big ones. So let's hope that the standard is as high for the next World Cup (not so likely though).

Imagine a 64-club World Cup...

The state of that hoodie suit that Infantino is clowning about in.

Mexico has had arguably the best world cups, seeing Pele and Maradona be crowned champions, so I’m excited for this next world cup putting aside the changes made in the format recently

One thing to note is that the New Jersey Final site is, yes, not in NY, but it's 200% in the NY metro area and plays to 2 New-York-Labeled NFL teams.

21:13 finally my home country mentioned in an Alfie video 🇿🇲

3 team groups means we'll have loads of "Gijons"...

love the beautiful way your sarcasm comes across iin the one, well done!

Thank you for this video. Been wondering about all of this for a while!

Best solution (other than leaving things as they are) would be 16 groups of 3, with only the winners qualifying automatically. The 2nd and 3rd place teams then go into a knockout play off round (i.e. 2nd from group A vs 3rd from group B and vice versa etc.) That way group winners are rewarded with only 7 games and no dead rubbers.

My favorite part about the expansion is the possibility for more African countries to qualify. With the former format, it was a brutal battle. I feel like 14 countries have what it takes to go to the WC but now, it will be 9 teams instead of 5. As a surprise, Comoros, my country of origin, is leader of its qualifying group, ahead of Ghana and Mali but there were only 2 games played and 8 need to be played, including two tough away games in Ghana and Mali. My theory : this is a preparation for an expansion at 64 teams by 2036 or 40.

It seems certain that all future World Cups will be hosted by multiple countries.

Even with this new format, I'm highly doubt that ASEAN countries (including, of course, our country Indonesia) will qualify for the 2026 World Cup. That's really a shame. The ASEAN countries in Asian Cup this year didn't disappoint at all, like Thailand going unbeaten in group stage without conceding a goal and Malaysia playing an entertaining 3-3 draw against South Korea.

33:05 it's a good job that ain't the real world cup draw as you got England playing in 2 groups and Senegal playing in 3 groups

I have to disagree strongly with your assessment of the group of death from the 2016 EUROs, Hungary was extremely close to causing an upset and it was one of the most exiting groups at that tournament

Really good video Alfie, don’t know why but this video just hit different 💪⚽️

Also San Marino in November 2023 scored more goals than Brazil

New Jersey might as well be NYC in this case Alfie. Technically, you are correct but in practice the stadium they are going to use is the same stadium used by both of NYC's NFL teams.

Another brilliant analysis, so thank you so much for entertaining us on such a grim subject: 👍👌👏!

just recently become a football manager addict and your content is great to have on in the background! cheers😂

There's always the possibility that teams perceived as 'weak' and not traditionally gifted in football will surprise everyone in their performance. That'd make things way more interesting, from a spectator pov, and make the whole tournament more exciting overall. Plus, I love the idea of the World Cup lasting longer, as it is one of my favorite events to watch every 4 years. ^^

The best format nobody is talking about: who said every team that makes the knockout round had to play in the first knockout round? Keep the 12 groups of 4, but the top 2 teams from each group advance. The 8 best group winners automatically to the round of 16, and the rest + the 12 2nd place teams make up a play in round to the round of 16. This keeps the drama of the 2022 World Cup in 2026, while also giving an extra incentive for teams to push for the top of their group and beyond, especially when that benefit is extra rest.

I think you should make a part 2 of this vieo talking about all the things you didn't have the time for in this one. Sounds interesting and important.

By FAR my favourite football channel. LOVE this guys humour....and well written and informative too. Doesn't follow boring msm diatribe without being (directly) insulting. Huge thanks for all your hard work.

I know this world cup format thing is absolutely insane, but we're in an era where insanity has become the new normal. IDK what to say anymore, man 🤷

How to accommodate all the countries in world cup: Fifa world champions cup with 32 teams... Fifa world europa cup with 48 teams... Fifa world conference cup with rest of the teams... All three tournament will be held at the same timeframe... With different hosts...

every video you upload reminds me how glad I am I found your channel. Entertaining and intelligent content

We need a part 2 for the points you weren't able to get to. Love this video!

Going from 32 teams to 48 teams is insane. A quarter of the world is now qualified for the world cup! 40 teams would have been perfect. With so many teams and games in the WC there's no point in watching the group stage because only those teams which make it to the next stage will be considered genuinely good enough.

I would love to see a 24 team knockout where the top two in each group advance but the 8 best teams receive a bye to the round of 16. I think that would make the group stage stakes still high and every game would matter.

The first-half of this video had me worried that they went back to that awful 16 groups of 3 format haha. Whatever happens in the 12 groups of 4, I'll just be glad that it ain't 16 groups of 3.

Well done! Best summary I’ve seen so far. I totally agree with elimination of the round of 32 with only 12 group winners + 4 best runners up. Keep it high stakes, high quality. The is the World Cup after all, not a back yard kick about.

Content, content, content, content! That’s why I love this channel! What I don’t love is that you always say: “change of tact” when the correct saying is “change of tack” - it’s a sailing term! But you continually getting it wrong gets my goat! 😂

TBH if the ongoing AFC & CAF championships are anything to go by, the new WC expansion would be a blessing in disguise. That argument is dead on arrival. There are no more big teams walking through easily. Everyone has to earn their keeps.

great vid, allfie. fyi the other two very close stadiums are also seattle and vancouver, it's better to travel by bus or train not plane. it's 2 hour bus ride with the border crossing time included or less than 2 hours by train.

Great video. Other repercussions to this is that the world cup qualifiers become *almost* redundant with the number of teams being increased. South America only has 10 teams, and now 7 can potentially qualify. 70% of the teams. Meaning they're just playing to determine who's the couple of unlucky teams that are *not* going to qualify.

Based on this year’s AFCON and Asia Cup, I don’t think diluting the quality is a valid complaint about a 48-team format… Instead of thinking about top teams’ chance of failure I think it’s better to think of less highly-evaluated teams’ chance of success.

A format idea I heard floated around for a while before we got the new official one, was that you have the 12 groups of 4, but instead of a Round of 32 and then a Round of 16, you have two Rounds of 16. Essentially, the top 8 group winners get a bye to the second Round of 16, and the bottom 4 group winners and all 12 group runners-up advance to the first Round of 16. It means that the amount of games one team would have to play to win the World Cup would be 7 or 8 rather than just 7 in 32-team format, or just 8 in the new official one. However, it would bring back the stakes of the group stage as in a 32-team format, and still give the increase in overall tournament fixtures from 64 in 29 days of a 32-team format, to 96 in this version of a 48-team format, and with 8 less matches than the new official format, it would mean they could schedule with 4-6 fewer calendar dates, so you could have a 33-35 days long tournament, which would benefit clubs as the quote-unquote calendar footprint would be less. However, as we know, 8 more games is 8 more opportunities for revenue that FIFA were definitely going to want, so we digress.

Make it a 64 or 32 team straight KO tournament, job done

Hey, good video. When you say that FIFA would divide the world cup into 3 zones that would be just for the group phase? Or in general?

TBF it is called a world cup, so having more teams involved would make it feel more like a world cup and grand thing. It will also help spread football and develop football in the lesser nations which is what FIFA is here for.

I don't think that the Word Cup is prestigious because of the way you qualify for it but rather the symbol of participating in the biggest international football reunion. Even if the level might decrease, it still only involves less than 25% of all federations which means that it remains fairly selective.

What i always hated about the world cup was the fact that coming into the third group game you can know exactly which teams you are going to play if you finnish 1st or 2nd i think that is something that has to be eliminated cause in the last world cup i couldnt help but feel like spain purposely didnt play well in the last game to finnish second to get into what was seemingly the better side of the draw

My night time listening thank you for the content love it

The Cash Grab Cup.

33:20 fwiw-there arent any stadiums in NYC, or at least any that would work for the world cup. the two american football teams in “new york” play in new jersey, where there will be games (and the final)

I mean as someone living in Los Angeles I’m excited to meet all the new fans and hopefully I can go to one game (USMNT or any game for that matter). I do wish we got the final instead but I guess the Europeans don’t want to stay up late because of the 8 hour difference.

So true!! When the format change was anounced, I immediately thought: "I hope this wont change the calendar footprint of the tournament." So glad they finally adressed that issue!

Thanks to this new group stage my country will finally be able to qualify for a World Cup!!!!!!! (I'm Italian...)

It's absurdly stupid to say that this current format is worse than 3 team groups where sequels to the Disgrace of Gijón would be possible

That accent towards the end, top-notch. After a very long day at work crunching 010101 on my computer, that has absolutely lit my evening.🤣

I will probably be frowned upon, but the best way to solve this is to create 8 groups of 6 teams, 5 matches for each team, top 4 progressing. That way you'll have way more matches and the group stage will be something memorable. Countries that don't generally stand a chance will get to see their team in more matches (revenues). In addition securing the top 4 from each group in the knock-out round, we'll have a better (quality-wise) pick for the knockout stage, not influenced by a terrible group drawing, which is often the case. Moreover, you lessen the risk for fixed matches, which is unfathomably increased with this poor excuse of a format that they proposed.

the USA-Iran match nearly killed me lmao

"if they don't sink into the ocean" That was an ice cold dose of satire you're not getting away with mate... Well done.

33:55 You probably mean the winners of the 12 groups, not 14, and the 4 best second places progress to the round of 16. There aren't "14 groups" of 4 in a 48 team tournament - there's 12 of them.

I know somone already said it. Best format would be 8 group of 6 - top of the group get a bye to Round of 16 - 2nd place & third place will advance to play off. Winner of the Play Off to Round of 16. That way: every team will fight until the end. There won't be dead matches.

As an American, I’m really excited for the extra games and am looking forward to seeing a packed Sounders Pitch (at Lumen Field) in Seattle go nuts for a national team home game, because they almost never play here, much less with so much on the line. Lumen Field is known for its ear bleeding fan noise and a local seismic station which regularly records earthquakes when the fans get excited. I pity the poor saps that end up facing off against us there. I also appreciate that the format is giving Seattle two extra games and hope that our atmosphere wins you over at least a bit. Soccer is thriving in the PNW so this should be less development fodder and more of a coming of age. I also want to thank the World Cup for finally getting us to replace our awful turf with real grass permanently. The stadium was designed so grass could be added at any point, but the Seahawks were dragging their feet.

As someone who opposed the idea of groups of 3 from the get go, I'm satisfied with the format. If I was FIFA president, I don't know if I would have the resolve to say, yeah, we are kicking 32 of you after the group stage to keep the traditional round of 16. That's the only way I can reason (deludedly) the idea of having 8 third place teams go through. Here's for the 64 team world cup in 2042!!

Lets accept that there is no perfect solution to how many teams qualify from each group and how that pans out. However i suggest the following: top 2 qualify leaving 24 teams; group winners are ranked with top 8 going to R16; remaining 16 teams go to seeded play off round with 8 winners going to R16. Definite benefit in winning the first round group. Eventual winners probably still play just 7 games.

I love the “Today i feel” reference at the end, class😂

My plan for 48 teams is 12 groups of 4, top 2 advance. That's 24 which doesn't work for a full knockout, so give the 8 with the most points/best goal diff a bye. Then even if someone wins their first 2 group stage matches, they are still motivated to get a result in the 3rd match to ensure a bye into the round of 16.

Helding the Final at MetLife is an... interesting idea.

As we thought US styled oversimplified logos was a small problem until FIFA decided to oversimplify the world cup logo since 2/3 nations oversimplify logos all the time (US & Canada) now oversimplified logos are a huge problem

😂I just love your sense of humor brother-man with a pinch of sarcasm... You're the best

Didn't realise Al-Kheleifi was ECA president until now :(

As a fan of a middle ranked country (Aus), although i know each game will be less meaningful because it won't be against weaker opposition, a win in the world cup still creates an ecstatic feeling and now it's even more likely.

The problem of 3rd Teams qualifying in a Group of 4 (20:00 on) can be removed in a 48 Team competition - 12 Groups of 4 - 2 Qualify. Wild Card Round of 16 worst qualifiers (Group Winners seeded 9 to 12 plus Runners Up). Then Top 8 Group Winners v Wild Card 8 and on....

I think we can all agree that the worst part of the new format is simply the expansion to 48 teams. Really makes the whole thing more of a crapshoot, plus qualifying is that much less of an achievement. Tho if it increases parity in soccer throughout the world, that’s a benefit

I kind of disagree. The World cup is the most important sporting event in the world, so it really doesn't matter what football clubs say. People are always resistant to change, even when the world cup was expanded last time. You can criticize the number of games being played and such imo but the expansions is a great idea. The world of football is becoming increasingly more competitive, and we need to adjust with those factors in mind. An extra round of football will just increase the chances of an upset so i disagree with that point as well. The third-place team concept works very well, we seen it in AFCON this year. It keeps every team playing very hard even on the last matchday because they have a chance. So, the 4th place team will really not give up because they have a chance to qualify in 3rd place. Even the 3rd place team has to try hard because all 3rd place teams don't qualify. FIFA tried to find a way to satisfy everyone instead of just being assertive in its position from the get-go and caused too much confusion.

Why fix sometimes if it’s not broken……….oh yeah greed and money 💰🤑

If you had 24 teams automatically qualifying for a group place and the remaining 24 having play-offs for the last group places you could then play the tournament as normal and the weaker teams could come into the group stages with a bit of momentum.

I am excited for the extra teams and extra games. Lots more opportunity for drama and glory! Should be a lot of fun

I hope this world cup is good especially when it held in Canada, Mexico and USA.

That map of Philadelphia and the NY-NJ stadiums is wrong. It’s much farther apart than that.

I think one important thing I think Fifa should seriously consider is asking the club teams to pause all their national competitions for 3 months prior to the world cup to help avoid players from getting injuries. I would support a 3 month vacation for all national teams to protect the super stars from getting injuries. This also would give a window time if a famous star lets say gets an injury that he has enough time to recover before a world cup. A lot of famous players may not get a chance to play in the world cup if they get injured since it is only every 4 years.

I don't mind the format. I'd prefer 32 teams, I think it's a sweet spot but if it's happening anyway, this is the best format. For all the talk about extra games, it's only potentially 1 more game for any player.

@30:55 that pin is not even close to the MetLife stadium