The Number That Gets You Shot

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Imagine a world in which everything about your life -- your friends, your family, which school you went to, your social media activity -- are reduced to a simple number used by police and the government to determine whether something bad will happen to you.
It sounds crazy, and almost paranoid, but algorithm-based initiatives have aided police from Chicago to London to help guide public safety interventions. In the case of Robert McDaniel, he was assigned a score that put him on Chicago’s “Heat List,” and he was told that he was likely to be involved in a shooting. But police didn’t know whether he’d be the shooter or the victim.
That resulted in the city offering him a range of services, but it also put him on the police’s radar -- and that began a chain of events that fulfilled a grim prophecy.
The promise of advanced math utilizing increasingly sophisticated data collection grows stronger by the year… but so do its potential perils. Can quantifying a person’s behavior actually tell us anything useful about them? And if it can, is it ethical?
The rise and fall of Chicago’s Heat List demonstrates not just how predictive policing works, but how it impacts individuals. And while the calculations themselves are a black box, there’s one thing we do know: once you’re on the list, you can’t get off.
MUST WATCH: Fantastic German documentary “Pre-Crime” (2017) by Matthias Heeder and Monika Hielscher. Pre-Crime delves into the details and implications of data-based policing and where the future is headed worldwide, available on Amazon and more: www.imdb.com/title/tt6998222/
MUST READ: “Heat Listed,” by Matt Shroud, which describes Robert McDanels' experience and the efforts of Chicago police to use data to reduce gun violence: www.theverge.com/c/22444020/c...
** ADDITIONAL READING **
“The Small Social Networks at the Heart of Chicago’s Violence,” by Whet Moser: www.chicagomag.com/city-life/...
“For years Chicago police rated the risk of tens of thousands being caught up in violence. That controversial effort has quietly been ended.” by Jeremy Gorner: www.chicagotribune.com/news/c...
“Pre-Crime” (2017), documentary by Matthias Heeder and Monika Hielscher: www.imdb.com/title/tt6998222/
“The grim reality of life under Gangs Matrix, London's controversial predictive policing tool,” by Peter Yeung: www.wired.co.uk/article/gangs...
“The Police Are Using Computer Algorithms to Tell If You’re a Threat,” by Andrew Guthrie Ferguson: time.com/4966125/police-depar...
“Violence Is Contagious”: A Conversation with Andrew Papachristos,” by Greg Berman: www.hfg.org/conversations/vio...
“Social Networks and the Risk of Gunshot Injury,” Papachristos, Andrew V et al. Journal of urban health : bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine vol. 89,6 (2012): 992-1003.
** LINKS **
Vsauce2:
TikTok: / vsaucetwo
Twitter: / vsaucetwo
Facebook: / vsaucetwo
Talk Vsauce2 in The Create Unknown Discord: / discord
Vsauce2 on Reddit: / vsauce2
Hosted and Produced by Kevin Lieber
Instagram: / kevlieber
Twitter: / kevinlieber
Podcast: / thecreateunknown
Research and Writing by Matthew Tabor
/ tabortcu
Editing by John Swan
/ @johnswanyt
Huge Thanks To Paula Lieber
www.etsy.com/shop/Craftality
Vsauce's Curiosity Box: www.curiositybox.com/
#education #vsauce #crime

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23 окт 2022

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Комментарии : 1,6 тыс.

@kevinlaity5931 Год назад

At a minimum, anything remotely like this should be required by law to publish its algorithm

@joshuaw.1427 Год назад

If they release the algorithm to the public, there are certainly people who will use that information to maximize what they can get away with. Always downsides

@sarowie Год назад

@@joshuaw.1427 How? Do you hire a killer that you only know by tree degrees of separation instead of two, to kill people not one degree of separation of you, but three? I guess seeing the algorithm in front of ones face would simplify planning, but... who runs a crime syndicate by metrics of degrees of separation? I mean, crime syndicates use degrees of separation to unlink high ranking members from low level crimes, but... I somewhat would assume that this is organizationally driven hierarchy driven by necessity rather then... calculating the pre crime calculations?

@micahsilverman5284 Год назад

If the algorithm is fully transparent then it'll be taken advantage of. We either need a transparent algorithm that has limited influence or limited transparency. A good compromise is to tell people what factors influence it, but not necessarily how those factors are calculated. Either way I think targeting people is a terrifying prospect

@FendtXerion3800 Год назад

@@joshuaw.1427 this problem can be overcome by putting the threshold low enough so that the "max" is tolerable for society. It is then basicly like saying this is the law and thats the punishment if you step over it. I mean people maximize the limit of the law all the time. For example driving 5-10kph over the speed limit because if you get cought its not that expensive (at least in my country). So it is technically forbidden but alot of people do it. Raise the punishment and the Speed will lower in consequence. Lower the threshold of the algorithm and the maximum is lower too. And open source is in generel the better option like in all software. But all in all i have watched enough Vsauce2 videos about predicting crime with some kind of "magic" algorithm that this practices should be just stopped immediatly and that everywhere

@AtomicBlastPony Год назад

This wouldn't be very useful. You can't reverse-engineer a neural network, it's a mathematical model of an actual brain, even the creators don't know what exactly goes on in there. Neural networks are most commonly made using evolution and artificial selection. First you create multiple AIs that do random things, then select the one which happens to be closest to what you want, and make more AIs based on that but with minor differences, then repeat. The result is a black box - it works, but NOBODY knows HOW.

@JohnnieHougaardNielsen Год назад

The problem with such a risk score for shooting involvement is that the risk per person is very, very low, meaning that 300 times higher risk is still too low to have any predictive value at all. I occasionally choose to walk across a street. That multiplies my risk of being involved in an accident many times over, but it is still negligible, no reason to worry.

@legendgames128 Год назад

You crossing the street means that the chance of being involved in an accident multiplies by 1000... but 0.00000001%*1000 = 0.00001%

@juanausensi499 Год назад

That's one of the biggest problems of the method. Even 500 times more risk is not a risk worth taking any action. The number that should make the bells ring should be in the order of the tens or hundreds of thousands. The fact that they make a list instead of waiting for a specific high value only masks the deficiency of the algorithm. There is now somebody somewhere that has a value of some millions because he is planning to shot somebody tomorrow, but that doesn't appear in their calculations, because the predictive power that you can gain from social networks only goes so far.

@JohnnieHougaardNielsen Год назад

The threshold for a result being worth a consideration of any kind of preventive action would be if the calculated risk is significantly higher than the statistical uncertainty of the method. And obviously, there are lots of individual factors unavailable to statistical analysis, but having a much higher impact than, say, an acquaintance having a criminal history. Any statistical outcome without a confidence interval should be thrown away before the numbers are thought of as interesting, and first step should be falsification of the methods of estimating the confidence interval.

@TheManinBlack9054 Год назад

Yeah. That's likr saying that person A is 5 times likely to be a criminal than person B. That sure sounds very impressive and certain until you see that a chance for person B is 0.1 percent and a chance for person A is 0.5%. It's extremely easy to lie with statistics and manipulate it to your will.

@alexsandoval4248 Год назад

The chances of being shot in Chicago isn't low

@evelyn-v. Год назад

a few years ago, such an algorithm would have been considered a sure sign that one was living in a dystopia

@philipm3173 Год назад

well we are...

@johns9652 Год назад

I’ve seen this movie, it had Tom Cruise in it.

@momom6197 Год назад

I guess that for most people, being in a horrible society counts more towards perceiving it as a dystopia than the gimmicks sometimes displayed in fiction.

@Delta_2209 Год назад

You just need to compare how society is today and how society is in 1984 (the book), and you can see how far or close we are of a dystopia

@4dimensionalcat Год назад

You can ignore this, im just putting it here so more people will see it in a top comment. Established Titles isn’t legit btw, if anyone was wondering. You do not have the right under Scottish law to describe yourself as a lord or lady due to ownership of a souvenir plot. Also, a bunch of other shady stuff that would take forever to put here. Look it up, and don’t buy their stuff.

@RelativelyBest 11 месяцев назад

Clearly, this algorithm has a major flaw: When calculating one's likelihood to be involved in gun violence, it did not factor in ones social proximity to the _police._

@isbestlizard 4 месяца назад

"Wow, every single person we've sent the police to investigate, has been involved in a police shooting! This algorithm has 100% predictive power!"

@SonicKirbo Год назад

"BOOBS." - Kevin Lieber, Vsauce2 Oct 24, 2022

@Nynodon Год назад

that was so out of left field i had to rewind the video 3 times to make sure I didn't mishear it

@pkmntrainermark8881 Год назад

@@Nynodon Same.

@vedanth_2609 Год назад

I think he said that just to grab the attention of the people that somewhat lost interest of what was going on ☠️

@Morgan423Z Год назад

Also, every fifth-to-eighth grader in history who was handed a calculator.

@americascreepyuncle Год назад

Lmfao That I already forgot about in the grander scheme of this terrifying dystopia black mirror social score crime liklihood quack.

@Superstino Год назад

I used to have an acquaintance who was a kleptomaniac. I myself work in security, and so I need a clean criminal record. I was deathly afraid he'd get me in trouble every time I went to the store with him... I tried to convince the guy to stop stealing, but I lacked the skills to help him with his stealing obsession. In the end I had no choice but to cut ties with him. As people, I think we have a responsibility to help each other become better, but unfortunately there are limits to what we can do.

@newpgaston6891 Год назад

This is a perfect example of something I talked about in another comment: Law abiding citizens tend not to want to hang out with criminals. For you it was for your job, but me, even that additional risk, I wouldn't want to be friend with someone like that. So, I don't think the algorithm is necessarily wrong. I'm very confident that people who DO hang out with criminals, have a very high likelyhood of bring criminals as well. At least, way higher than the general population. Now, this doesn't justify harassment, but vigilance may be warranted.

@mihailmilev9909 Год назад

sadge

@RyanRex Год назад

@@newpgaston6891 but here you highlight another problem. If I, in an effort to better my community or assist my neighbours, spend a great deal of time assisting people to truly need it, the algorithm has the reverse effect by targeting me instead of others more likely to commit crime. The argument that vigilance is harmless is correct in an ideal world, but unfortunately it isn't the reality we live in. Heightened scrutiny leads to heightened response, regardless of guilt or validation.

@JojOatXGME Год назад

@@newpgaston6891 Also the algorithm doesn't assume that you are more likely to become criminal as well, it just assumes that that there is significant chance that other people draw you into a conflict.

@nybbThering Год назад

@@RyanRex and yet, even if you are spending time with criminals in an attempt to help them, you are more likely to be a victim of violence. hence a perfect algorithm for your risk should increase your number

@Siferzion Год назад

Love the fact that Kevin just has a featureless black box. Does he own that independently of his work, and thought "that'll be a good prop"? Or more likely, did he purchase/make said box, thinking "wow I'm dealing with a lot of videos involving hidden algorithms, this will definitely come in handy"

@CapablePimento Год назад

I can’t believe I just took that box for granted and didnt think about it. I feel so minipulated😢😂

@maddockemerson4603 Год назад

I’m curious about that too. What _is_ that mysterious box? I guess we’ll never know…

@Zadamanim Год назад

Since we don't know how the video is made, the black box is within a black box...

@itismethatguy Год назад

@@CapablePimento this reply was almost better than the comment

@mitchellspanheimer1803 Год назад

@@CapablePimento Reminds me of Patrick Star and his silly box on Spongebob

@HarithBK Год назад

my brothers childhood friend got involved with drugs and crime later in life but police still targeted him with "random" stops and harassing calls. so even if you drop a friendship police will still hound you since the computer see no difference nor does the local police office. i would also like to point my brother has only ever been thrown in the drunk tank and been employed 95% of his adult life.

@mad_huntress_8796 Год назад

This stuff is kinda messed up :/

@alexia3552 Год назад

I guess the algorithm tracked "similar developmental environments maybe similar outcomes??"

@jackiec498 10 месяцев назад

@@alexia3552sure but even if it is 100% true, the police, at least in America, have absolutely no right to treat you any kinda way based on what you "might" do. Unless, of course, there is verifiable & actionable evidence that you are conspiring to commit a crime. Other than that, you are innocent until they can prove that you aren't.

@jrilo1307 11 месяцев назад

This whole concept reminds me of the anime "Psycho-Pass". It's a dystopia where you are given a number that measures your mental state and likelihood of commiting a crime and if it goes beyond a certain threshold, they begin to "hunt you down" for being too much of a threat to society. The thing is, the ones that hunt criminals down are actually people whose Psycho-Pass went well beyond that threshold and are treated as hounds, so that other citizens don't have to be involved with the killing.

@kuromyou7969 Месяц назад

Wow that show sounds awesome. I'll have to check it out.

@fireworkbutterfly Год назад

The part of the video that really disturbs me is someone shot him because the police visited him, like that is insane. Like if you see police visit someone, your first thought is, I should shoot them, then you actually do it?

@IanFonseca Год назад

Shoot them twice, on two different occasions.

@CrispyTopHat222 Год назад

They're black

@realrickyshea Год назад

I guess that's Chicago for you 🤷🏽‍♂️

@Errors2149 Год назад

Welcome to America, hope you like your diverse neighborhood.

@heliveruscalion9124 Год назад

that's just how paranoia works, unfortunately. innocent people get shot by police, people get paranoid, they see someone talking with police, they think he's gonna tell the cops about stuff they do, so they shoot him to get him to quiet up

@dbackscott Год назад

A friend used to be a Maricopa County sheriff’s officer a while back. He said he was out in a rural community near Wickenburg and just started chitchatting with a guy for a few minutes (my friend is a very friendly, outgoing sort of guy). A couple days later they found the guy he was chatting with shot dead, apparently because the people of his community thought he was being a police informant. The actual contents of the conversation was frivolous stuff like sports scores and the weather. My friend thought he was engaging in community relations, not signing a guy’s death warrant.

@alexia3552 Год назад

shhhiii.... apparently the police have a much more fundamental rehabbing of community relations to be undertaken first

@bensoncheung2801 Год назад

How is your friend doing now?

@tink6225 Год назад

he should have been aware of the implications

@baconwizard Год назад

@@tink6225 he shouldn’t have to be

@tink6225 Год назад

@@baconwizard true, still realistically he should've been aware of what his presence would suggest

@BlackGryph0n Год назад

LOVED this video... It really makes you think about causality, which is a complicated, yet hugely influential topic that is often overlooked.

@alanmcentee3035 Год назад

What wasn't mentioned is the problem Chicago Police have in most of Chicago. Their own credibility. People don't like to talk to CPD because their reputation precedes them. Everyone becomes a suspect. Even a witness from the 'burbs. The CPD abuses nearly everyone. And Chicago Police brass will talk about reforming the system. And not one freaking thing is ever done. They will hire a new Superintendent (Chief of Police) who promises to reform the Department. And nothing happens.

@sodicious 9 месяцев назад

shaite got no replies

@DontPretendtoCare 8 месяцев назад

It's all a fraud. We already have the technology to stop all crime. But that isn't profitable.

@paulsshadow6604 6 месяцев назад

Well it seems like their unsolicited dive into causality caused a casualty.

@wwickeddogg Год назад

Cops: We can't just show up to someone's house to warn them, we need a new plan. Let's try sending a letter instead? The Letter: Do not try to find us. This letter is a warning. You will be shot or you will shoot. Stay safe citizen!

@catherinebaldwin6580 Год назад

Man- “We’ll see about that.” Man- get gun to protect himself. Man- Two days realized the second half of the letter. Man-“#^!}*£\=!!!!”

@mihailmilev9909 Год назад

@@suetekhset7660 😭

@mihailmilev9909 Год назад

@@catherinebaldwin6580 exactly how it happens

@ArtSurvivesArtist Год назад

Is this the vase conundrum? He wouldn't have the gun if he didn't feel threatened enough to own one.

@U20E0 Год назад

@@ArtSurvivesArtist exactly. also what is the vase conundrum?

@gabor6259 Год назад

For the first time ever, I'm glad I don't have friends. Thank you, Kevin.

@snow86241 Год назад

same

@suicideistheanswer369 Год назад

same

@EchoL0C0 Год назад

same

@FerdEdits Год назад

My algorithm says people without friends are 100x more likely to be involved in a shooting. Nice try

@axorandom Год назад

same

@user-zg8ow2ib2m Год назад

Honestly the concept of this heat map system reminds me of the Sibyl System from PsychoPass, which is an AI that assigns a value to a person's mental state and deems whether or not they're a threat to society.

@johntheslider5802 Год назад

Or Minority Report.

@HellChakan Год назад

100% what i thought as well

@PunnamarajVinayakTejas Год назад

i was listening to this and not watching, and I thought they were literally talking about the crime coefficient.

@DarthVader-ch4um Год назад

Another fella of culture! Loved Psycho-Pass!

@thehobbitlestat Год назад

Certain child protection divisions use a similar list. For example; If one of my cousins were to lose their children due to poverty (the ACTUAL most common cause in my state), I and my siblings would then be scrutinized heavily and would then risk losing our children regardless of circumstance. I've seen it happen too many times.

@menigmatique Год назад

That's very sad.. Not only was he facing the peer pressure but the incompetency of his government toying about with people's lives

@realrickyshea Год назад

I'm from the government and I'm here to help.

@maestro9765 Год назад

The US is a police state

@helper_bot Год назад

is it still called peer pressure when your neighbors are pointing at you with their guns?

@menigmatique Год назад

@@helper_bot That's a good point but what else would you call it?

@sinisterdesign Год назад

I'm not sure I'd characterize it as "toying about with peoples' lives"; they did their best to try to help a guy at high risk for getting shot to not get shot. It's just sad that this guy demonstrably lives in a neighborhood where your own friends will lure you outside to get pumped full of bullets if the cops come talk to you.

@Kregelbagel Год назад

Watching the first minute I was like "ya dude, that's the start to 'Person of Interest'"

@asrasaqib9554 Год назад

finally found someone who's seen the show...I had to scroll down way too long for this reference...like, c'mon..nobody?

@Queengeek Год назад

My People! I love this series so glad to see more of you!

@dbergerac9632 Год назад

I came in looking to see if I was the only one making that connection.

@AySz88 Год назад

(Un)fortunately the AI in that show was maybe another thousand times stronger predictively. Like, it'd be able to know if putting someone on the list would kill them, and use that to assassinate people. Not that it would ever do that....

@Lurker-dk8jk Год назад

@@AySz88 Samaritan would. And made its own assassination lists. Leaked the US Marshals' witness protection list in S4E10.

@legendgames128 Год назад

3:25 he looks like he'd have a 4 digit score. Of course, since it's his algorithm, he'd set it to 0.

@NotSomeJustinWithoutAMoustache Год назад

I'm glad I'm not the only one who found the guy kind of weirdly creepy, I mean no offense to that guy, but in that photo with every single muscle in his face that's pushing his lips toward a smile being so weirdly perked up it almost feels like a meatcanyon drawing but irl. Also he's squinting hard enough that you can only see the iris and at least for me his iris looks black so it looks almost like as if his entire eyeball is just black or smth which feels extra creepy too.

@pandagod1773 Год назад

he looks like the grinch in the live action movie

@runed0s86 Год назад

He looks like he's high on something.

@someguy8365 Год назад

He is so terrifying

@RadioMan2023 Год назад

@@pandagod1773 Lol he does look like a 90 year old Jim carrey

@darrenbreydsor5604 Год назад

This is absolutely horrifying. Like, I knew this would be happening secretly, but actually seeing it is terrifying.

@spudd86 Год назад

Seems like it would have been a better idea to send the social worker alone.

@reanetsemoleleki8219 Год назад

They wanted him to get shot. Police have a deep enough understanding of criminal culture to know that being seen chatting with them puts a target on your back.

@raincandy3 Год назад

But if they were high risk, it'd be unlikely to risk a civilian going in alone

@reanetsemoleleki8219 Год назад

@@raincandy3 there was no reason to believe the man was high risk.

@raincandy3 Год назад

@@reanetsemoleleki8219 If the risk was higher, as they believed from the algorithm (not even sure if that rate of increase even has any significance either, which is my biggest problem with the operation)

@UnlikelyToRemember Год назад

Sounds like they could have done him a solid by taking him out in cuffs down to the station for their little talk.

@shabadooshabadoo4918 Год назад

Can we talk about the guy 2 mins 20 seconds in who using like 1 or 2 shades of grey and some squiggles made a perfect human likeness. Some people are so damn talented.

@bboyhanvzla Год назад

do you want to talk about that? ok, let's talk about that.

@lvl99dh Год назад

@Safwaan Yeah it is a developed skill, not so much talent involved, very very impressive

@mihailmilev9909 Год назад

@@bboyhanvzla I just heard the Good Mythical Morning intro as I read this

@paulkanja Год назад

I just miss the games analysis videos

@MutantSatan Год назад

@Safwaan No one cares if you knew, clearly the original commenter didn't. Or if he did, he should have linked it like that.

@microwavedeg9285 Год назад

“Your mom is one and so is your sister” There was such a better way to word that

@anaclarissabandico6309 Год назад

He knew

@d-m.n_--2 Год назад

Worst part of the last question listed is that there is clearly a Social Status Number that can ruin you by doing the exact things we believe are Moral. As in helping people to lower their number, but raising yours so that later in life lower numbers will not associate with you due to your moderately high number, and those high numbers you tried helping not associating either because they stayed high and moral implications mean they are disassociating to try to help you back, or the lower numbers have to find someone else to average their score due to the diminishing returns of averages. All because of these numbers and their glass ceilings. Tl;dr being the good guy here will mean that you will live alone and friendless.

@NotMe-ej9yz Год назад

Welcome to China. They are quite literally already doing this and have been for a while. Everyone has a social credit score and it fluctuates based on things like what you buy, where you go, what your education is, where you work, who you associate with (and what their score is), whether or not you have loans, if you're broke, if you don't pay back your loans, if you've been arrested, if you've spoken against the government, if you participate in protests, how you vote, just tons and tons of different things all effect your social credit score. People there already refuse to associate with people that have low scores for fear of hurting their own. They don't even want to be around them AT ALL and they outcast them from society. It's a terrifying system that I hope I'll never have to experience in my life.

@ericquiabazza2608 Год назад

If you think about, the whole "algorithm" is profiling with made up MATH. You will be shot soon for being in a polr black neighborhood with gangs, Now is "algorithm cuantify this factor and give us the same amswer".

@orlandomoreno6168 Год назад

Moral is written in lowercase.

@VVilde36 11 месяцев назад

@@orlandomoreno6168 It is acceptable in the west to capitalize a word for effect look it up. If you are gonna be a grammar nazi, be a good one... Sloppy grammar nazis just expose themselves as power tripping creeps on the internet every day.

@gabrielc7861 11 месяцев назад

@@NotMe-ej9yzI agree.

@MM-mz7er Год назад

if anyone has watched psycho-pass , this is eerily similar , having some algorithm do the calculation for crime , just a interesting thought

@nnaauujjddaa Год назад

I was thinking the same. I feel like all those kind of predicting algorithms get us closer to a dystopia.

@wernerviehhauser94 Год назад

"Zero" is even worse.

@GameTimeWhy Год назад

Psycho-pass is emotions based though. This video is more like minority report.

@wernerviehhauser94 Год назад

@@GameTimeWhy hmm.... minority report is more clairvoyance than big data (even if, for an outsider, that looks the same)

@GameTimeWhy Год назад

@@wernerviehhauser94 that's why I said "more like". Minority report is clairvoyance but it's judging someone before a crime is committed like this algorithm. Psycho-pass has nothing to do with crimes and everything to do with " clouded minds".

@KiiXii Год назад

It’s like mistreating the quiet kid because you think he’ll become a school shooter, This pisses him off and decides to shoot you.

@Naro_Rivers Год назад

If I lived in a place that used such “tools”, my hesitance to meet new people might actually be justified.

@fordprefect859 Год назад

Sweet Jesus this program glows brighter than the NSA playing laser tag. This is one of the most extreme invasions of privacy I've heard of since the Snowden leaks.

@bpj1805 Год назад

How exactly was anyone's privacy "invaded"? They're not acquiring any information they didn't already have available to them through the guy's own interactions with them.

@fordprefect859 Год назад

@@bpj1805 the fact that they are collecting information about personal relationships is something I find quite alarming.

@alexia3552 Год назад

@@bpj1805 in terms of psychological health, being contacted by a government agency to be informed that they're actively aware of you, making decisions about you, and taking action on those decisions feels very invasive. The being contacted and having it confirmed that they're tracking data about you is almost more psychologically disturbing than the vague suspicion that they are or the knowledge "yeah we're all on lists on a computer somewhere." Also in terms of social wellbeing, being contacted in a way as visible as police coming to his house had serious repercussions.

@drakejoy2902 Год назад

@@alexia3552 So you would prefer if they don't contact you at all? And do not warn you of your probability being involved in a violent crime?

@Alkis05 Год назад

@@drakejoy2902 At the very least, they shouldn't just show up at his house. Only by showing up, it is clear that it can cause more harm than good, depending on the situation.

@gerardmonsen1267 Год назад

I like the idea of using this kind of a system to find out who would most benefit from resources provided by a social worker. But the social worker program would need to be appropriately funded and able to provide real help.

@alexia3552 Год назад

Yeah, not only does the algorithm need polishing to give more useful predictions, our social safety nets need to be WAY stronger to have any effect. Free coverage of mental healthcare services alone would make a massive impact, and getting free coverage of prescriptions too would do a lot more. Although, the fundamentals of secure housing and income need to be really nailed down first, no one can be mentally healthy while dealing with financial insecurity.

@Xenos_hive Год назад

The police told him his social credit score was too low

@paulschwartze8924 Год назад

CCP approved

@jjbarajas5341 Год назад

But in golf score language

@RGC_animation Год назад

"We're sorry mate, but because that one time you skipped work without reporting to the executives, we've gotta arrest you now."

@MikeCrain Год назад

It is true that anyone you're regularly associated with will make you more likely to do certain things you wouldn't normally do, but the US justice system trying to predict the future under that premise is like asking a 4 year old to run a nuclear power plant alone.

@4dimensionalcat Год назад

Established Titles isn’t legit btw, if anyone was wondering. You do not have the right under Scottish law to describe yourself as a lord or lady due to ownership of a souvenir plot. Also, a bunch of other shady stuff that would take forever to put here. Look it up, and don’t buy their stuff.

@BirdsTheWurd Год назад

More full length videos like this please I miss vsauce of any context

@brokenrecord3523 Год назад

Maybe less preaching, more teaching next time.

@RedIceberg Год назад

This reminds me of that part in Gulliver's Travels where Gulliver says that doctors will kill people instead of admitting their prognosis was wrong

@FantasmaNaranja Год назад

something that is still true to this day, that's why you should often ask for a second opinion if you dont think your doctor is correct sure you may not be a professional but it doesnt hurt to get the opinion of a second professional if you're hesitant to accept the first doctor's prognosis

@RedIceberg Год назад

@@FantasmaNaranja not so much as killing as don't want to admit their wrong though (like everyone else).

@FantasmaNaranja Год назад

@@RedIceberg yeah the issue is that not admitting when you're wrong in the medical field kills people

@RedIceberg Год назад

@@FantasmaNaranja In the book, he says they literally kill them intentionally (like feed them poison, and as such are very useful to some select ppl). But yea, that's valid too.

@alexia3552 Год назад

I hadn't heard that before and oh wow is that true

@Bluhbear Год назад

The "Heat List" reminds of the premise of (probably a lot of things, but specifically) an anime called Psycho Pass. The show involves a lot of _indistinguishable-from-magic_ advanced future technology, but the idea is similar.

@senorpepper3405 Год назад

Anime sux

@Bluhbear Год назад

@@senorpepper3405 Thank you for this valuable and insightful feedback. Truly the world is bettered.

@senorpepper3405 Год назад

@@Bluhbear and thank you for your reply sir. And in such a timely fashion ✨️

@SuperWeapons2770 Год назад

There's a show called Person of Interest that take this to the logical extreme, where a supercomputer can reliably tell if anyone is about to be a victim of crime.

@Boringpenguin Год назад

In short, a self-fulfilling prophecy.

@meino6465 Год назад

Man this sounds like something straight out of Psycho-Pass

@EverythingIsLit Год назад

The crazy thing is, none of this is particularly far fetched or dystopic. Banks, insurance companies, landlords, schools, and more already use data to make decisions about your future. Banks use credit scores to determine eligibility for loans, which impacts whether you can buy things that will help you stay safe and build wealth (e.g. a house). And where you live plays a big role in determining your educational and job opportunities, which plays a role in your health and safety. It's already happening.

@kb3svj Год назад

Hmmmm, and 20 years ago, the movie "Minority Report " came out. This story you present is super spooky!

@thebrou9462 Год назад

Imagine living in a country where people are not just shot at all

@o0Donuts0o Год назад

Knives will replace guns. After they take away knives, blunt objects will do the job. Once they take away all possible form of weapon then fists is the only option. The use of a weapon is not the problem, the intent to do harm is. And then the cycle continues, defend against a fist, get a stick and escalate until we are back at guns.

@thebrou9462 Год назад

@@o0Donuts0o i agree, but having such unregulated access to weapons able to kill a person by the pull of a Trigger sets the ease and therefore the boundry to kill so dangerously low that i feel much more comfortable with the thought of getting my head kicked in than getting shot by someone in the blink of an eye. Yes grabbing the problem by its roots would be the best Option even though unlikely, still no ordinary human on this Planet should be alble to own a weapon with such killing potentional than a gun and the implementation of this to me is much more realistic than defeting the intent of violence completely. The meere concept of normal pedestrians owning and carrying guns is mindboggling to me. Sorry for spelling, english not first language.

@doommaker4000 Год назад

@@thebrou9462 unregulated, lol

@robo3007 Год назад

@@o0Donuts0o Knives replaced guns in the UK, but the homicide rate is still 4x lower.

@dash_r_media Год назад

@@robo3007 You might want to look into demographics for that answer

@Steamrick Год назад

Who's responsible? 10:00 At the end of the day, I'd still hold the shooter responsible for shooting.

@sarowie Год назад

yes.... but the shooter lifes in a socioeconomic system. As an individual, he is responsible for his actions, but as a society... people in a similar situations are just likely to become shooters. So, will I understand not moaning the shooter, as a society we have to try to catch people long before they go on the trajectory of getting involved in violent crimes.

@artikit9323 Год назад

"Social influence spreads like a virus." "LOOK I'M A LORD!!!" absolutely hilarious. 10/10

@irighterotica Год назад

I've really been digging these socially conscious videos. These stories about the relationship between big tech & law enforcement, and the harm they cause don't get nearly enough attention. And even when they do, they're seen as "a step in the right direction," particularly by legacy media-instead of what they actually (and usually) are: which is a well-established, over-funded police state finding and creating new tools to maintain the increasingly untenable status-quo.

@NickLavic Год назад

Sounds like a case of self-fulfilling prophecy.

@matthewwhite5513 Год назад

So essentially the AI runs on “ Show me your friends and I will tell you who you are”

@theretep6494 Год назад

I remember I used to watch your mind blow back when I was 14. You are a part of my life wether you want to be or not. Thank you for the entertainment over the years glad to see you’re still uploading

@ericolens3 Год назад

Social network theory has other names: "Birds of a feather flock together." "Show me your friends, and I'll show you who you are." Even before the internet and social media apps were a thing, it was a common belief of the company you keep reflects who you are.

@crazyjoeshorts5256 Год назад

Even a well intentioned government with too much power will end up doing extreme harm.

@lemondeepfried 4 месяца назад

Yes. But in this case it sounds like the neighbours are the harmful ones.

@daab889 Год назад

I never thought Minority Report would become real

@KeiranBro Год назад

Thank you for putting this information out there.

@IxodesPersulcatus Год назад

Trusting statistics that you don't understand is like trusting a fortune teller. They may have noticed a coffee stain on your shirt and paler skin where the wedding band should be. They may have looked you up on social media and confirmed your recent divorce. Doesn't mean their prediction for the future is accurate to a meaningful extent, unless you specifically make it so.

@elenas3571 Год назад

Here is another reason math shouldn’t be used to arrest people.

@sarowie Год назад

well, he was not arrested. He was just visited by the cops to get told he will shoot or get shot. Then then shot by his neighbors because of the police visit. But he's no snitch, so no arrests.

@egal1780 Год назад

Yeah. We can put people In Numbers, but Not our legal system...

@arcanine_enjoyer Год назад

This is actually the practical use that your teachers always tell you about for a niche math topic

@hexagonist23 Год назад

@@arcanine_enjoyer Oh darn it. I should've studied calculus more before robbing that convenience store and shooting the cashier.

@rosiefay7283 Год назад

Algorithms like that, anyway.

@davionriley391 Год назад

This feels a lot like psycho pass

@v1neet Год назад

3:21 Well, that was uncalled for...

@Callie_Cosmo Год назад

I feel like a crime drama show where a person in the police force uses this list to choose their next victim would be an interesting concept, if not possibly very politically charged

@thebookless3381 Год назад

As thwy should

@crystalcove99 Год назад

This is literally the plot of Person of Interest.

@darknight1077 Год назад

***casually coughs in Chinese social engineering****

@geopence Год назад

Very well done. This is a great example of someone turning RU-vid into a source of intelligent dialog and public good. The question hangs out there, doesn’t it? The social science and its application through technology are accurate, and getting more accurate all the time. Yet how do we accommodate this powerful force in a quirky and imperfect social milieu? How can it be tuned to better serve the human factor? This is an example of that issue as it applies to law enforcement, but that same central dilemma will come to effect every sphere of human activity. We’ve always thought that simply being true was the ultimate and final standard, the appropriate arbiter for every decision, but is it?

@GUNUFofficial Год назад

(Walks outside) 216! (gunshot) (Laughtrack and sitcom laughter)

@JorgetePanete Год назад

I'm against these things, it just removes the cause-effect relationship. The algorithm says you will do X, you then do X, "told you so" argument literally

@1.4142 Год назад

Having data about who you are arrested with makes a very limited social network model which no amount of algorithms can fix.

@VicJang 8 месяцев назад

Kevin, this is freaking amazing. Thanks for continuing to make these awesome videos.

@fuzek3185 Год назад

this guy does something impossible, he makes me want to study math

@mimithewienerdog6928 Год назад

7:37 "The police trying to warn him and aid him ended up harming him and his social status in his community"

@ooffilipinopatriot7605 Год назад

sounds like a normal day in the Muslim and rural areas in the Philippines.

@rb1471 Год назад

This is how person of interest works

@TheEudaemonicPlague Год назад

I hadn't heard about this, somehow. This has to be to a large part of the inspiration for Person of Interest. The whole "we know you're going to be involved in a crime, but don't know if you'll be a victim or perpetrator" thing seemed to me like a plot device to make things more mysterious...now I see why it was used.

@Sport6000 Год назад

That is one of the most interesting things I've seen all month. Will def look more into that

@sgtmoose1942 Год назад

The film Minority Report is a cautionary tale not a how too manual.

@Casual2270 Год назад

I had literall chills at the very end

@Dark_Brandon_2024 Год назад

What if you have many friends and you get robbed by a random guy, will that make their scores go up and if so, isn't it kinda breaking the model?

@fidelramirez5173 Год назад

bro was asking all the important questions at the end it made my little depressed brain hurt but happy at the same time

@gmacwizard8890 Год назад

They don’t know if you are going to be the shooter of the victim... well there is one way to solve that problem

@YoungGandalf2325 Год назад

They might as well just use wanted levels like GTA.

@BryndanMeyerholtTheRealDeal Год назад

Like a 5-star hotel being raided by the FBI on end.

@hrbattenfeld Год назад

The McNamara fallacy (also known as the quantitative fallacy), named for Robert McNamara, the US Secretary of Defense from 1961 to 1968, involves making a decision based solely on quantitative observations (or metrics) and ignoring all others. The reason given is often that these other observations cannot be proven. Goodhart's law: "When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure"

@mason3358 Год назад

Im loving this criminal court analysis series

@Saxtus Год назад

That reminds me the Person of interest (2011) TV series.

@xd3athclawx554 Год назад

the london heat list being called 'the matrix' makes andrew tates 'escape the matrix' idea even funnier

@DarkKyugara Год назад

If you think ahead about the possibilities of this, the future will become too scary to live in.

@BierBart12 Год назад

The smoke break theory feels weird. Whatever workplace I've been at, one guy smoked at the start. People joined him but did not start smoking, we just enjoyed the extra 5 minute break, fresh air, coffee and socialness every hour. Hell, before that, some people smoked in my school but most just joined them for the talking. People from different countries I've talked to have reported VERY similar situations. Apart from the US, that was very accurate to this video.

@BGrayWolf93 Год назад

Tha fact that the police intervened just added an extra variable to the algorithm, is there a way to use this kind of algorithm without altering the result or making it worse? PS: This reminded me of "Person of Interest".

@-tera-3345 Год назад

That's kind of the plot of Minority Report; they get three independent predictions and go with the majority, but the second prediction came based on the outcome of what would happen after the first prediction was reported, and the third prediction based on the outcome of the second, so they were all predicting entirely events from entirely different variables. But actual the output is just a simple "two yes, one no", reducing an extremely complex situation to a yes or no question.

@tellmewhenitsover Год назад

Classic “I’m from the government and I’m here to help” moment

@nathangamble125 Год назад

Friendship is magic, and can apparently get you shot.

@antenna8836 Год назад

Kevin being at 7000 on the heat list by making a video on it The FBI at his door in 6 hours: "Sorry man you're on the list"

@SanyaZol Год назад

The FBI at his door in 6 hours: "Sorry man you're on the list, here's how we can help you with employment and mental health"

@hgman3920 Год назад

From what I understand, China is taking social credit to the next level by assigning score to every citizen. A person's social credit score determines things such as where they can be employed or whether they can take public transit. It's completely insane

@Naro_Rivers Год назад

So normal Chinese government behavior.

@legendgames128 Год назад

@@Naro_Rivers Taken to the extreme.

@nurbnord7451 Год назад

Wait till you find out about the American credit system

@SlashCrash_Studios Год назад

@@nurbnord7451 nice

@ERROR404tf2 Год назад

hey man, given your interest in math and algorithm predictions you may want to look into predictive dispatching for EMS, we have a couple of counties locally that are implementing that into our dispatch system.

@JKTCGMV13 Год назад

Sounds useful

@JosephSullivan777 Год назад

Criminally underrated video. I only found it as a suggested one to another, unrelated video - even though I'm subscribed. ☹️

@saraths7473 Год назад

I was expecting a lot of "Person of Interest" convos.

@rintsi5689 Год назад

That's kinda messed up. You'd think if you tell someone that your algorithm has calculated that he either will be shot or shoot someone that person would get a gun just to protect himself and thus increasing the chances even more..

@TheVergile Год назад

The real issue wasnt that the data was wrong. The data pointed at a real issue. A neighbourhood and social network of people that are averse to the police, prone to violence and suffer from severe social and financial disadvantages. The issue is that instead of actually solving the problem they decided to look for a cheap and easy way to put a bandaid on it: by picking one or a handful of people to help. Its not the data that is the problem - its the idea that you can somehow skip the part where you fix the actual problems.

@sudokode Год назад

"They showed up at my door and said you're either going to be shot or shoot someone." "Then they asked, have you ever tried sugar... or PCP?"

@Nooticus Год назад

As always, great video

@singular9 Год назад

Sounds like a black mirror episode of the girl who was trying to raise her social score and then she gave up and became a run away trucker

@paxcaster Год назад

friend of mine got shot by mistake during a drive-by, apparently the shooter thought he was someone else. this friend was in med school at the time and pretty much clean as a whistle, but I guess now my number go up according to a bunch of nerds lmao

@Will-D Год назад

In school, what class would this be? If there is none we have to make one and educate people about these stories. Incredible stuff!

@jeremytheimer7443 Год назад

A guy knocks on our door and you think I'm the one who gets shot? no, I am the one who knocks.

@CraftMine1000 Год назад

"collect data that which is usually flawed or biased" Let me correct that for you, it's always biased, Data collection per definition is biased because a choice is made on what to collect and how to collect it