Intelligent People Know it's the SECRET BALLOT not the VOTERS who decides who wins. YOUR VOTES HAS NO INTEREST its the SECRET BALLOT, ( I can.t remember their real name, they are the SECRET NOT VEN VOTERS but SECRET COMMITTY that DECIDES WHO WINS & WHO LOSES--- CITE: Hillary Clinton Won The Votes To Wn SECRET BALLOT PEOPLE say NO SHE IS NASTY WE BUMP HER OFF.
If we win the house and senate, bills should be passed to reform the supreme court, including impeaching those that lied about their views on Roe v Wade
Exactly this. So many people are stuck on the idea that our instututions are going to make decisions that follow the law and make sense when the reality is that they are all increadibly weak and making decisions based on ideology.
Yeah, I’m with Emma… I don’t believe in John’s assessment on any of this. I believe he is way off, and if he is, he better come on and apologize and explain why he got it wrong.
Two things are happening, either the majority of polls are accurate and we have a statistical anomaly of 50-50 or the integrity of the polls is in question. YouGov's recent poll has Hariss up +4 as do a few others. With how Harris is campaigning in this final week compared to how Trump is campaigning this past month, that tracks with YouGov. Harris is focusing on economic populism, Roe V Wade (the story of the Texas woman dying), school lunches, and attacking Trump on things like Puerto Rico, Project 2025, and his desire of being a dictator. She's also returned to "we're not going back." Trump (in contrast) says she's a communist and they will give all your kids sex changes. Either we have a statistical one in a million with the majority of polls, OR, the polls are hedging their bets to keep from looking stupid given how bad their predictions were over the past eight years. Given how both campaigns are operating (and their own internal polling) I'm thinking it's the latter.
@@squarehammer4619 the easy answer is a lot of people have forgotten about his presidency already and have been disillusioned with Biden's PR disaster of a presidency even if he's been an alright one, and that falls back on harris.
One thing I don't think factored in is the number of republicans switching votes to harris, no vote is worse 1 less for trump, a vote for harris is 1 less and +1 for Kamala, which means you need 2 less votes to get Kamala to beat trump. And that there are almost negligable numbers of dems who'd vote Trump.
My girlfriend was listening during this and was like "this guy is insufferable how do you watch this?" Had to explain that when John calls in it's always the worst part of the ep 😅
I don't know what's wrong with this caller, (I have a couple of guesses) but they need to give him his own MR segment on something after the election is over. Preferably something completely outside of his comfort zone.
John goes deep. It's always interesting. That's what makes this show different, you've got the deep analysis and professors alongside comedy and satire.
^^That is indeed the correct question to be asking here. Bad news is we won't know until we see in real time. And who knows? We might get a mix of good and bad; Both chambers of Congress may flip towards Democrats (in the House) and Republicans (in the Senate). And we may, for the first time in well over a century, witness an electoral vote tie...
@@AntiGlobalist-o1s, predicated on what? Polling has been wildly inaccurate for at least 8 straight years, and indications are that Texas and Nebraska are hotly (albeit unexpectedly) contested. So unless you have somehow acquired the power of precognition, then you have absolutely NO right to make any definitive determinations. Only the voters can do that as has been demonstrated for said 8 years.
Assuming this guy John knows his stuff i would like to hear what he thinks of the women turning out in the early vote by 10 pts, to me that seems really significant, showing the turnout for Harrisis promising which polls do not represent
I couldn't even stand listening to the John talk. I had top fast-forward to where she said she didn't share his assessment. I'm sick of the polls too. They don't want to go out on a limb because there are too many new variables in this year's election. No one knows. They just throw opinion on the wall and see what sticks.
@@stevedow9076 he has an accurate model with a pretty high success rate. He's only gotten the Gore race wrong and said Trump would win the popular vote and EC. That said, the Gore race gets a mulligan. The popular vote historically went with EC (this changed in the last decade and I don't think he acknowledged this but hopefully will realize the rise of cities gaining in population makes these two vote counts different
For fucks sake, if the battle ground states are won or lost by less than the margin of error my faith in humanity will forever be shaken. And I don't mean that as hyperbole. Like how can you trust someone's mental fitness when half the country voted for an objective fascist? We're going off the signs of identifying a fascist from the Holocaust museum, again I'm not trying to inflammatory. But I'm just stunned that people are on largely on board with Trump's messaging. Please go vote people.
@@squarehammer4619 Because Kamala can't put together a coherent sentence, its a word salad and "I'm from a middle class home" for every single answer. She won't go on any real interviews. She went on Fox and got demolished 😂. Rogan invited her several times and she refuses. Oh let me rephrase that: She put so many restrictions on it, it makes no sense for Joe to grovel. Any politician would love to be on Joe Rogan to get their message out. Trump and JD just did 3 hours each with him. Trump 2024!
This guy clearly hasn’t been paying attention bc logical coherence between rulings is not at all a requisite. Lmao just what helps their people (Christian nationalists)
Voted early in NC today, 2pm on a weekday and it was PACKED... took almost 45 minutes to get thru the line, and most of the people looked like Dems to me, very few Trump hats/T-shirts, lots of blue Dem voter guides in hands
Several weeks ago when John had better news people were loving his call ins. Now not so much with a lot of hate towards him. Seems some will have a difficult time after Nov 5 and Trump wins. At least he John tried to prepare us for it.
Good lord John sounds sick all the way down to his soul. He's gonna get cancer with that kind of a lack of happiness. In a different decade he'd be a chain smoker and die from lung cancer. Although his voice does sound like a smokers voice so he could be.
The 2024 Senate election seats up for election are much more favorable for Republicans. The Senate elects about 1/3 of its seats every two years, since Senate terms are 6 year terms. In 2024, Republicans have about 10 seats up for election while Democrats have about 20 seats up for election. That makes it much harder for Dems to keep control of the Senate.
The history suggests he'll greatly outperform the Republican incumbent even if he loses; Greg Orman fell short, and so did Al Gross in Alaska. Nevertheless, no Democrat in those states and others considered to be "ruby red" have come close, so the strategy for running Independents in those races is perfectly sound even though the results were not what we had hoped for. So, by all means, be skeptical. But let's not be outright dismissive given we've seen stranger things happen before...
Kari Lake is overperforming in AZ and is ahead. McCormick is overperforming in PA and is ahead. Tester is gone in MT. WV is gone. Even Tammy Duckworth is fighting for her seat in Wisconsin. All of this is NOT supposed to be happening. This does NOT bode well for Harris.
Lifelong Democrat from Georgia here, very dissatisfied with how we're continuing to fund the genocide in Gaza. Will be voting third party for the first time ever, we need to send them a message.
99% of the time voting third party benefits the right wing. And is also a cowardly way out to throw your vote away in protest to make you feel better instead of really influencing change.
I love listening to Sam but today this John guy was insufferable. His tone of voice and pitch were like Vance. He was argumentative and contentious. What qualifies him as an expert? Is he a statistician?
Question - is there a good reason why you guys post these like 2-3 days later? So this one was just posted on 10/31 and it sounds like it was recorded 2 days ago and the data is already old and stale. Some new polls like the CNN poll were just released and the two of you are correct and John from San Antonio is now incorrect. Please advise as most of the other podcasts that analyze the polls post up their podcast videos much quicker (which is helpful to the viewers). Thank you.
People just want to make a safe bet. It’s easier to say an indie won’t win NE or a Dem won’t win TX and be wrong than vice versa. Who cares, just vote.
Depending on quality of education, we might not know that kids learn about civics. Education is under attack, they have so much religious doctrine to shove into every kids mind.
They know everything about us, you don't need a big sample for statistics and sophisticated software to give you hyper-accurate results. They know more bout us than we do.
"THE SENATE IS LOST! TRUMP RUNS RAMPANT THROUGH THE SWING STATES! YOU'RE WRONG, HARRIS' SUPPORT IS CRUMBLING!!! ... oh, but I still think Harris will win." Sam: "Lead with that!" Me at home, pulling the gun barrel out of my mouth: "YES! Please do!"
What kind of questions are these? Republicans do wjatever they can ti thriw up chaff. Sam is right. Its just to give oeiole the sense something is wrong so that they can get it thrown into the house.
Nevada (based on early voting numbers), Arizona and Georgia are out of reach for Harris. She’s trailing in North Carolina, better in Wisconsin and Michigan, and about tied in Pennsylvania. But she needs WAY more turnout in Philly than we’ve seen so far based on mail in ballots so far.
Dont know where you're getting your info from. She's doing very well in AZ EV. Her deficit in NV is from Republicans who voted in 2020 but are voting early this cycle therefore cannibalizing the ED vote. Her campaign is still confident she can win NV. The Black vote in NC is slightly lagging, she needs to pick up the place there to have a chance of winning. Per her campaign, they need the Black vote to make up 20 percent of the electorate, right now it's at 18 percent. Their target is still attainable in NC with the considerable ground game they have in the state. Harris us looking good, but its going to be close, no surprise there...
