The Rarest Thing to Ever Happen in Phasmophobia (0.007% Chance) 

the chances of that happening is so statistically low that i’d have a better chance guessing the same random ghost twice and getting it right both times

I'm expecting something crazy like he spins banshee, walks in with the paramic and it immediately screams

8:44 if people wonder why insym knew it was an oni, it is because an oni is more visible during a hunt than any other ghost (It doesn't flash invisible as fast as other ghosts)

Insym : what's the worst thing could happen? *pull tarrot card *Death card Insym : ah F*ck *Ghost was behind insym Insym : AH F*CK!

41:40 - 42:13 I do not skim over important parts, because Ghost Gambling is actually really fun to watch! The chat losing it in the feed is always hilarious to watch no matter the situation.

The fact that one person said "Safest all in ever" makes the double Demon moment so much greater than it already is

My psychologist: where did you start gambling? -Well, it's a complex question

Has anyone noticed that everytime Insym yells "im gonna die im gonna die" he almost never dies 😂

Yesterday I got hunted and killed from full sanity on regular professional 8 seconds after unlocking the door. Ghost was an Onryo Map was sunny hills restricted Ghost room appears to have been the hallway just inside the set of doors off the lobby towards chapel. Walked in door, running towards basement stairs to hit the breaker, the second the lobby doors opened my flashlight blinked once and ghost was right on top of me, I assume the ghost was blowing out candles in the chapel.

With new years coming up, it could be fun to see Insyms top “most startling moments”, “most funny moments”, “most fun moments with CJ and Psycho”, etc.

Always makes me smile when Insym drops a new video! Merry Christmas everyone!

*picks up the tarot cards* “what’s the worst that can happen?” *pulls the dead card* *AUDIBLE TERROR*

I feel like panic running through the house screaming "Nooooo! What are yoooou?!" is something every phasmo player can relate too, new or old XD

loving the always consistent uploads that you are giving, make sure not to burn yourself out though. it is important to take breaks everyonce in a while and truly focus on yourself!

“so how did your gambling addiction start “ “Well it’s a long story but it started in a place named Tanglewood with some ghost and a man in a awesome rainbow sweater” 😂😂 Always enjoy these gambling streams though not sure my points do 😒😂 Thank you for the upload. Take care ❤

Hey Insym I think I've got a challenge which could be interesting to use in your future streams. It's called the "Drop & Leave" Challenge The requirements are: - Professional difficulty. - All items put into the truck. - Diaplayed speedrun timer for chat. How to play the "Drop & Leave" Challenge: - You're only allowed to pick up an item for 1 time. (Two EMF's -> each can be picked up for one time) - If you drop an item you are not allowed to pick it up again. - Placed items also count as dropped. - A EMF reader is only allowed to be used for 1 minute (timer for that one EMF starts as soon as you enter the house (again)). Afterwards it has to be dropped. Chat can tell you when the timer has run out. So interaction with the community should be there. Why that challenge seems like a good one: - You have to use all items in the truck. - You will encounter many situations because of your limited inventory where you want to drop something to pick something else up. So there's always the thought lingering in your mind that you have to sacrafice an item. For example do you drop the camera and lose the 3 pics you have left to be able to pick up a smudge or a lighter. - You can adjust the difficulty of the challenge by... ...only adding one of each item into the truck. ... shortening the EMF timer. ... applying the 1 minute rule to all electronic devices. (timer of all electronic devices in your inventory starts as soon as you step into the house (again).) ...use of different difficulties.

Insym: It's all demons? Game: Always has been.

THAT 2 DEMONS IN A ROW GAVE ME SO MUCH GOOSEBUMPS I SWEAR

I'm seeing a misconception in the comments so on Insym's behalf I'd like to try to clarify the mathematics and why he's correct on the chance of 0.007%. A number that appears in comments below my own: 3.01408179*10^-6, or 0.0000301%. This is not wrong, but it's also not what is being calculated here. Half of the importance in calculating probabilities is to be very clear in what _exactly_ the situation is. This incorrect value is an approximation of (1/24)^4. Insym's value is an approximation of (1/24)^3. The difference is in the first wheel spin, and the error made in various other comments is that we don't actually care about the result of that first spin. The first spin gave a demon, but that only became significant when subsequent rolls also resulted in a demon. To put it another way: before that first wheel spin, we didn't know we ought to be looking for a demon. A probability of (1/24)^4 is correct if the question is 'what are the odds of the wheel and the game both selecting 'demon' twice in a row', but although that is the case here, it's not accurate. And that's because it isn't really important that this stunning coincidence happened with a demon per se. The stunning coincidence is in the fact that the wheel and the game aligned twice and on the same ghost. There is no added significance to the fact that we got a demon specifically four times in a row. Insym's value is correct because we don't care about the first wheel spin. Because before that wheel spin, we aren't looking for any ghost in particular. So we aren't interested in what that first wheel spin gives us. What we are interested in is the odds of the game agreeing with the wheel (1/24), the odds of the wheel then picking the same ghost _again_ (1/24) and the odds of the game picking the same ghost again as well (1/24). Multiplying these THREE probabilities gives a probability of 7.233... times 10^-5. We multiply by 100 to get percentages, and we are left with 0.007233...% which Insym rounded to 0.007%, which is valid. To put it another way: the selection of the ghost can be likened to 24-sided dice. The 'incorrect' number is the probability of 'what is the probability of getting the value '18' four times in a row'. What Insym calculated is the correct answer to the actual question, which is 'what is the probability of getting any number four times in a row'. In this case we don't care about the first roll of the dice, because we're not looking for any value in particular. What we are instead looking for is the probability of the three subsequent rolls agreeing with the first roll, which is (1/24)^3. The upshot: mathsym is on point.

21:40 That shit happened to me and got me killed on Willow. The ghost broke the music box - played at the front door to the house - from the basement, suddenly appeared in the living room with me, and caught me without a place to go. The ghost never appeared until I was dead. It wasn't due to sanity either because I'd just walked into the place.

Almost every time it's a demon and I ask it to write in the book, it decides to hunt instead.

the fact that you also rolled it twice makes it more like 0.000003% chance

The guy who said “it’s a 75% chance to be demon” when the odds were 3/5 😂😂😂

What an amazing moment, back to back ghost type! It was the best experience witnessing it live and experiencing it together with everyone! 🎉😄

11:37 "What's the worst that could happen? ...ah fuck." Insym no! Never challenge the power of worse! It will ALWAYS set out to prove you wrong; typically in the most frustrating or humiliating way possible lol. Seriously tho I am flabbergasted by that 2 in a row first guess demon. Talk about astronomical odds! 😂

"its the worst thing that can happen" death card waiting in the deck: am i a joke to you?

i started watching your videos yesterday not knowing anything about phasmophobia and now i really enjoy watching your videos. also merry christmas

I remember once I was messing around with my friends... I played the asylum (pre rework) and we ran around for a good 10-15 mins with little interaction. I ended up guessing it was a spirit and it was 😂😂😂 Purely unlikely but thought it was cool to have happened

The chance of this happening including the demon being picked as ghost by the game and the wheel back to back is modeled as (1/24)^4 because 2 for each selection, .000301% meaning the probability of this happening is 1 in 120,000,000 or 120 million, this will most probably never happen again @insym

If I remember terminoligy correctly, its called "the gamblers falicy". the idea that a chance increases or decreases based on how many times a certain outcome happens.

The funny thing with ghost roulette is that mathematically you can "always" win against the chat by comparing the real odds (lets say 1/24 in the first roll) to what the chat bets. Like the first bet is always 300k believe to 3-5M doubt, so around 1 to 10-20 when you have 1/24 chance to land right. Meaning that by voting doubt first roll and betting always the same amount, chat is on average gonna give you coins no matter what. If you notice chat is voting really hard on doubt (>24 to 1), then you can just vote on believe and win on average again.

I do want to confirm that the wheel getting the ghost right on the very first try already did happen with an Obake. That Demon was actually the second time it happens.

19:00 where it starts

I didn't even realize this was an older video until Insym started making a big deal of 7 million doubter money and it's funny that nowadays 7 mil has turned into 30 mil normally

9.28 "alright not a great start for the believers" if only you knew LOL And i was a believer ever since 🙌 this was genuinely one of my favourite streams and videos ever. ** spoilers ** Mainly bc i won on BOTH DEMONS! what a time, so much fun!

One time me and my friend played tanglewood three games in a row and all three times it was a Banshee, located in the foyer and the pajama girl ghost model. Never seen anything like that happen again

I've always wished they would do an Australian mode for an april fools. Just imagine the truck guy speaking in an australian accent, the ghost cussing you out during a hunt with his australian accent. Players wearing a t-shirt and shorts..

He sounded like an astrology girl when he said "omg that is so banshee of you"

Im surprised no one has done "Clue" with phasmo.. at the start is going to be a Jinn in the Kitchen with the mirror. I guess with 24 ghosts it wouldn't be easy. This game was great tho. super entertaining. Its great that Insym keeps like reinventing the game.

GeoAlchemist won both Demon ones winning Top 4 highest rewards on both (highest on on the second). What a lad.

the ghost gambling videos are some of my absolute favorites

i wish i had a better pc to play phasmo especially with you cause all skills i've learned were from you

Keep it up insym 🤭 really love your gameplay..

Heyo Insym! This was definitely one of the most epic times I’ve had on stream! It’s also my bday today, so it’s cool you posted this one hell of a video today too! Have a good one!

Hi this was funny as FUCK and insyms vids are just relaxing he just has the right amount of talking and his dedication of streaming every day even if he's a bit sick as long as he can speak. And insym to me has the title of "The Goat Of Phasmo". He looks at pretty much every comment no matter how old the video is.

Let’s goo! Gamba is my favourite I hope you do more of this! Thank you for the video ❤

Around 7:00 in, i noticed he said it didnt stack, which should be obvious for everyone watching, he already started a game, meaning the ghost was already chosen. This backs up the fact it is just a singular 1/24 chance of guessing right. The whole thing with that, was he already had his run started, which that one guy completely disregarded.

Hi Insym. I love your videos and content, but I’m just saying I would love to see you doing another ghost explanation tutorial since the last one was so long ago❤

Imagine the ghost, just standing there as he screams to write in the book

“0.007% is never happening again” Sols RNG and TDM:R players: *rookie numbers*

0:01 hi timed users

I once had a demon before, wish I knew it was that rare

Tl;dr: We dont care about specific outcomes during the roll. We only care about the event actually occuring. Specific outcomes would be (1/24) * (1/24). We have 24 of those outcomes that we'd accept at any given time, which would make the calculation ((1/24) * (1/24) *24) = 1/24. So yes. Insym is correct. I think many people in the comments seem the miss a key difference in what is being calculated. At around 7:30. There is a difference between calculating an event and a specific outcome. In this case here, the event is being calculated. The event in this case is "The ghost in game and the ghost on the wheel are the same". In case of calculating an event, the outcome of the first roll doesn't matter. The first roll is just to "set the event in motion". We just need a ghost. We dont need any specific ghost. Which means that the first roll is a 24/24 roll, cause EVERY one of those is valid. Only the 2nd roll actually matters for probability. And that would be 1/24. If we were to calculate a specific case however, that would be where we needed the first roll. For example a Jinn. There'd be a 1/24 chance to roll a Jinn, and then another 1/24 chance to roll a Jinn again. Making the probability of that specific outcome (1/24) * (1/24). Its only the outcome. Not the event. But since we dont care about the outcome and only about the actual even happening, the chance is much higher. Or to put it another way, if you only want the event to occur, you would need the specific outcome of ONE of the 24 ghosts, so you'd have 24 chances to get it. That would make the calculation ((1/24) * (1/24) *24) which is equal to 1/24.

I'm already having PTSD from all the points I've lost because of that ghost LMAO

phasmophobia's ghost type picker is a paid actor

finally got to play phas for the first time and thank god id watched your videos cause i never woulda known how to loop a damn ghost lmaooo

The last ghost is probably having Asthma and just wants a spray

Question: When the ghost possesses the light and turns it red, does that count as turning on a light which means it can't be a Mare?

“What’s the worst that can happen?” Pulls out a death card. “Oh sh!t”

I should not be watching this near the middle of the night but I am 😂. I have terrible anxiety while watching your videos but in the end it’s worth it.

I was looking at a different tab and came back to Insym being chased by the Oni, made me laugh so hard lol

I always enjoy watching your videos no matter which game no matter what u want to do because you are great my man ♥

Bro i swear, he isn't afraid of the demons. The demons are afraid of him.

It's always 1 in the total amount of ghosts at first. Then it's 1 in however many are left.

Insym is a w math teacher

I lost 30k on the Ist demon but the 2nd demon I had a feeling and put 10k down. I'm glad I did. That double demon was some of the most fun I've had on the stream.

i love the chat saying "bye RU-vid" at the end. its so cute

Always a believer lol! Learning off you! You’re the reason I begged my fiancé to get me phasmo. You’re the reason I have the balls to go down to the basement and pull some tarot cards while my friend yells at the door of the house xD you insym alone have given me the courage I haven’t had in many horror games to just balls into a basement and say, “show me a sign” my friend said I have more balls than her. And I just recently got her into the game!!!! Day 4 of phasmo only 5 ghosts right!!!

What’s the worst that could happen - famous final words

I think I need to join the twitch, your streams looks crazy

The magic conch shell has spoken, the all powerful. Double demon is crazy the wheel truly spoke.

Insym, sorry about this, but yes technically it is 1/24 and 1/24 when you do the stat math breakdown. It does not really matter, but because you are spinning your wheel and the game at the same time so you are choosing random chance twice. so it is a 0.17% chance that the wheel and the ghost match up, because of the random chance twice statistic. If you just choose a ghost, then you have a 1/24, but because you spin it is twice, random chance has happened twice. When you play the lotto, If you do a random pick vs a pick you choose ever week there is a much higher chance that the chosen pick will eventually show up vs the random pick. (1/49x1/48x1/47x1/46x1/45x1/44)x(1/49x1/48x1/47x1/46x1/45x1/44), because a quick pick and the numbers drawn. So yes the commenter is correct to say it is 1/24 twice. Ultimately the chance does not matter, it is a fun challenge, and the percent rare chance is small enough to not care about the actual stats. Thanks for listening to this TED talk on statistics, If you made it this far in this comment, thank you

the moment i have seen the demon on the wheel again i just entered the calculator and spoilered the video for myself

I'm having too much fun watching these. These gambas truly make for purely exciting videos!

"Safest all in ever" -best last words

Imagine getting bamboozled SO HARD even after SO MANY successful runs. 🤣 GG & You never know what's in store when it comes to Phasmophobia!!

Been watching so much Phasmo on YT that when I played with my friend who is lvl 23 and thought I was a noob at lvl 8, I figured out a ghost after one evidence and one ghost event. First I found the ghost room (basement at Tanglewoon), dropped my thermometer on one of the suit cases and placed some salt even though my friend wanted to figure out what ghost it is first. I told him it's easier to find out what ghost it is if we know what it isn't first. As soon as I went down with the dots stick I saw the ghost with the dots. I checked dots. Then when I had placed it and was on my way out, there was a singing ghost event and it happened right where I was walking so I walked through it and it dissappeared. I checked my sanity and noticed it was conciderably lower than my friend's so I checked banshee and he said "no way, we need more evidence". I brought with me the ultraviolet light and saw a handprint on the basement door, checked the thermo and it wasn't freezing but my friend saw ghost orbs on the camera he placed down there. It took us 15 minutes to get all evidence. It took me 5 minutes to figure out which ghost it was XD

Let's go gost gambling ❤️ Thanks Insym ❤️

16:49 so funny that the car alarm went off on the tower

17:30 Could someome tell me what made him realise it's a yokai? Ik he has much more game knowledge then me, I still play intermediate, but I wanna see what to look for and what's his way of thinking?

Watching Chat lose it is HILARIOUS

How do I already know this will be way too insane/lucky?

I went from a different phasmo video to this one immediately when I saw the notification

The chance of the Wheel getting the Same ghost the game picks is 1/24*1/24, however this event happens in 24 scenarios meaning we have (24*1)/(24*24) if we multiply and divide we get 1/24, because we can say the game picks any ghost, probabilty being 1, and now the wheel has to get this ghost, probability then being 1/24

I've had multiple ghosts, wraith, reventant and deo each appear 5 times in a row (think it was 4 for the wraith). Regardless, I am doubting the RNG nature of the ghosts sometimes.

So what you're saying is that it's a 50/50 chance? The wheel either does or doesn't choose the right ghost. Boom!

Merry CHristmas everyone! I was there ( though i didnt comment cuz i was watching with my phone,and its hard to comment by phone)

*beautiful melody starts playing* insym: AAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHH

(spoi) Believers finally won on the first try POGGG

Our brains are terrible at understanding stacking odds. Not only do you need to know how to apply the math correctly, you often need to actively resist your intuition about how it "should" work. And getting the equations right won't help if your mathematical model doesn't fit the situation.

I think I understand the logic behind someone saying its 1/24 twice. (I dont agree though.) For those that are betting, you have to hope it lands on the ghost you want, and then again as the game rolls the actual type of ghost. If you don't care about the ghost type then it doesn't matter, its still 1/24 and a 23/24. But the act of using a wheel adds another layer of randomness, you dont get to guess yourself-- hence the twice 1/24 for people betting on it being that type of ghost.

"what's the worst that could happen?" the death tarot on the table:

Phasmophobia has a low scariness ceiling, after about 150 hours of playing you are no longer scared and then its not fun anymore, im at 110 hours and i want to keep being scared so its more fun, but i wonder if the devs will do anything about this. The game is still great and they put tons of work into it, but once you get good enough at the game you get nostalgic of the days you were terrified.

I once got the name "Karen" 3 times in a row with my friend.

I think the chance in the title is wrong, I think you are missing a zero: The chance that the weel got it right in the first game: 1/24 The chance that the weel lands on Demon the second time: 1/24 The chance that is is a demon again: 1/24 1/24 * 1/24 * 1/24 = 0.0000723

"And the chat goes wild!"

The chance does stack. It'll be a 1 in 24 to land on a oni for example, and then another 1 in 24 for the ghost to actually be an oni. For both of those to happen together is a 1 in 576 chance

7:10 actually I know at least in the current update it is stacked towards certain ghosts spawning😅

Weird comment I just wanna say thank you for uploading these long videos I watch these in the gym to pass my hour start lol and I’ve been wanting to watch phasmophobia so it’s a win win thank you!!

The guy was correct on the statistics being both multiplied together. So instead of the chances the board predicts the ghost in game being 1/24, its (1/24)(1/24)= 1/576, or 0.0017 -> 0.17% Heres the actual statistics behind this. Our events are 1) spinny board and 2) ghost selection ingame. We must assume both are fair, ergo the spinny board has exactly 1/24 chance to select every single option, and Phas is fair in its selection of ghosts, meaning every ghost has a 1/24 chance to be selected. These events are mutually exclusive of each other, ergo our probabilities are as follows -> Probability of event (A & B) occurring together = P(A) * P(B). P(A)= 1/24 & P(B) = 1/24. Ergo P(A & B)= (1/24)(1/24) = 1/576. Now that we've determined the probability of the spinny board predicting the ghost in game, lets view this prediction being correct twice. Again these events are mutually exclusive so we use the same formula. P(A & B) = P(A) * P(B). But from before we've determined the probability of one of these events is 1/576, so P(A) and P(B) both equal 1/576, so P(A & B) = (1/576)(1/576) = 1/331,776 -> 3.01408179*10^-6 -> 0.000000301 --> .0000301% To give some relatability to these numbers, the chance of being struck by lightning is 1/15,300. There is a higher chance of being struck by lightning than this happening.