The Very Dangerous Foreclosure Cycle

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The Very Dangerous Foreclosure Cycle
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Опубликовано:

11 июн 2024

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Комментарии : 173

@PatamaGomutbutra 19 дней назад

0% down payment is the sign of final shot of gather people to massive forclosure pool before the disaster.

@Batacman69 19 дней назад

Ive given up buying a house, wanna retire abroad, stretch my money out

@katydid2877 19 дней назад

Really? So, you don’t have kids then? Or grandkids?

@christaylor8337 19 дней назад

No I do not. Gonna go south of the border.

@user-os3qm3nb2k 19 дней назад

Be careful buying in a country where you don't own the land and must give it back to the generational owner after maybe 20 years?

@agentcrypto7741 19 дней назад

Same, if things don’t fall 20% minimum I’m outta here next year.

@spaceindian3769 19 дней назад

I don't either We've been warned for decades and decades why would anyone bring children into Mass😮@@katydid2877

@dustendawin4657 19 дней назад

Your take on unemployment is wrong. When you replace high paying full time jobs with part time gig work you lose a ton of income. It is just as bad as not having a job. They will only make enough to eat and not much else. The real rate is around 20% or higher. The foreclosure rates will skyrocket soon due to drop in values. The banks will flood the market while nobody is buying. 2008 2.0......

@DoubleOhSilver 19 дней назад

No way it's 20%

@dustendawin4657 19 дней назад

@@DoubleOhSilver It is most likely even higher. The numbers for unemployment only count those claiming the insurance and getting paid. They do not include the majority of people who went from full time good paying jobs to gig work or those who cannot claim benefits. If you just look at how many layoffs have been announced you can see that way more jobs where lost then created. The other thing is jobs created are low paying entry level ones. This is getting messy with migrants flooding the job market.

@JC-cf4rs 19 дней назад

We need foreclosures. It’s the only way for prices to be pressured down. Otherwise people will just list high and wait until some sucker pays 2024 prices… I know you don’t wanna be the bad guy, but we need a bad situation to come around or else we just have to get used to unaffordable housing as the norm

@alyross2850 19 дней назад

@@JC-cf4rsI agree that foreclosures are needed. But I also think there will be a lot of people who bought within the last 5 years that won’t have the luxury to list and wait. Particularly people who bought investment and second homes because a lot of those people used their home equity or future potential earnings to get those other mortgages. If the income property isn’t panning out, there have no more equity to dip into, if they ever did. So the carrying costs to list and wait will just be too high. And even if it costs say $3000 per month to carry, it’s too much if they don’t have the money. So I see short sales and foreclosures by the end of summer in pandemic boomtowns in particular.

@dustendawin4657 19 дней назад

@@JC-cf4rs You might think that it would benefit people but it really doesn't. It helps the mega rich and investors buy assets at a discount. The people end up catching the knife and end up losing their assets. The home prices are not the real problem. Its how much your dollar buys you. When you print money like crazy the value of the currency gets reduced. Our dollar is only worth pennies now. Look into how hyper inflation effects and economy and you will see excatley where we are.

@jessdoingmakeup 19 дней назад

I love your videos! I am a business major at a university (back to college at 38 during pandemic!). I have learned more from your channel and reventure than my macroeconomics classes!!!

@olegosheyko2737 19 дней назад

Redfin just removed price history in their listings in Philadelphia area 😂 Yesterday everything was fine but today you can’t check price history.

@eyeinsee 19 дней назад

OMG! NJ too this has to be a glitch, this down right evil.

@SeanXtopher 19 дней назад

I noticed it in DC as well.

@abrimley6700 19 дней назад

Illinois as well 😂

@nasv2587 19 дней назад

Maryland too.

@adamdemolay6775 19 дней назад

California is gone

@LetsKeepASecret 19 дней назад

You make great points but I don’t think income x home price tells the whole story. If you could split the two data series by the age of buyer, I think you’d see two economies. I believe that Baby boomers are tucking into their end-game homes. They’re using the supply shortages to their advantage to sell the old homes at high prices and bidding up the $1m plus luxury market in target destinations like Florida. Once all the boomers have settled, I think the bottom will fall out, even on the $1m plus market. Question is when will that happen? I think interest rates are immaterial to these luxury boomers - it’s more about what percent of them have settled into their final home. My best guess is 3-4 years from now the bottom falls out and prices of $1m plus homes stagnate for 2 decades.

@The_Clumsy_Investor 19 дней назад

Nothings like a little Poo-poo pie early in the morning lol

@bluefm7370 18 дней назад

At 66, having worked in the real estate industry starting 1979, with my last twenty-five years as a realtor, retiring 2013. FOCUS ON THE FACTS.....NOT THE DISTRACTIONS....... GOVERNMENT HAS INTENTIONALLY CREATED INFLATION TO PAY FOR THE 100% INCREAAE IN GOVERNMENT EMPLOYEES. IT IS THAT SIMPLE, ONE GROUP OF THE CITIZENRY NEEDS TO DIRECT THE OTHER 50%, AND THEY WILL HANG ON FOR DEAR LIFE❤

@legacyopp9318 19 дней назад

Just drive by Macdonalds, buger king or hardies and you'll see they are empty.

@Kurplode 19 дней назад

Hey Travis. Houston active listings are at 43,044 as of April of this year. That’s an 8.3% increase vs January of 2020. Bonkers!

@dustendawin4657 19 дней назад

It looks like in places that had high investor buying action now are having huge increases in inventory. Somehow prices haven't cratered yet......

@Kurplode 19 дней назад

May numbers just came in today at over 45,000 active listings and sales are down over 1.5%

@MCthespeaker 19 дней назад

46k active listings in South Florida

@jackjohnson9449 19 дней назад

You could buy a home cheaper in the year 2000 than in 1988.

@sunso1991 19 дней назад

70s 80s had high inflation, higher wage growth, and boomers were in peak child birth phase of their lives (25~35). The population was growing and people needed bigger homes. Now american women have a birth rate of 1.4!!!

@john.johnb_online1438 19 дней назад

2:41 yes that was funny “ I’ll taste it for you”😂

@yinyang5225 19 дней назад

I normally don’t watch videos that are lengthy, however, you keep my interest to the very end. Your channel is amazing. Congratulations.

@jessdoingmakeup 19 дней назад

I agree!

@shawndiesel007 19 дней назад

20 minutes is not lengthy 😅

@drivethrupoet 18 дней назад

The only safety net following a recession like we had about 10 years ago - the mortgage companies don't have the resources to manage a flood of them. I had to stop paying on a home back then and I managed to get them to agree to a short sale and after 6 months of not paying I moved out. I was commuting pretty far to new job, but mostly because I stressed just wondering when they were going to actually evict us. But it took them a whole year after that to sell it. So I could have remained there for about 18 months without paying. And here I am unemployed again for the first time since.

@jorgecasamiquela1186 19 дней назад

Totally and Absolutely Bonkers 💯 😊

@morrischoo9717 19 дней назад

The falling interest rates over the past 45 years is an indication to me that the actual 3 percent or so government target inflation rate to sustain money velocity has been propped up by the lowering rates. Imo, the sustain of say a 7 percent rate (3+4) is what is needed to find real values. But the fact that our GDP weighted components are not the same and being skewed by the government heavily tells me that It's entirely unsustainable this non producing country is facing..

@davidwilliams4498 19 дней назад

Dont need to be an economy pro to know with everything so high prices an homes an car prices are thru the roof better hope these great big paying jobs dont go away. Foreclosures will sky rocket

@Erica-yr3gf 19 дней назад

Right on. Love the statistics. ❤❤❤

@alonzofloyd8140 19 дней назад

Bonkers is the truth, increasing my purchasing power and waiting.

@veeness887 19 дней назад

I love your videos. I have been learning a lot. Thank you 😊

@John316ch 19 дней назад

Great data Travis!

@josimon8315 19 дней назад

Families moving in together also a factor

@sheilagrace565 19 дней назад

Your charts are fantastic. Simple & clear - enough to compare several different sector overlays; population demos, credit 'loosening', derivatives, birth of CDOs and MBS. Income has been stagnant and declining % of population for 40 years. 98% of all newly created $, since 1981 has gone to the TOP 1%.

@Scotpatriot 19 дней назад

Exactly the real estate industry complex lies and omits information. Like you said do on the ground due diligence

@davidaponte7521 19 дней назад

Travis, I agree with the numbers, except one thing , I do not think that income is ever going to keep up with housing prices. Housing prices will fall I agree with you, but unlike the past, income levels will not rise. This time it will be different Travis, this time it will not be like 2008, this time it will be the great depression, most likely the greatest depression we’ve ever faced in our country. The massive correction that must be undertaken for our economy to be sound will require a depression which means unemployment will continue to rise, even if the housing market crashes.

@serenax.3622 12 дней назад

We love Travis! He's just so real!

@andreunz 19 дней назад

freshly harvested from CNBC today 12th June 24, to refresh your knowledge on the topic: Total mortgage application volume surged nearly 16% compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) decreased to 7.02% last week from 7.07%. Applications to refinance a home loan jumped 28% last week, compared with the previous week.

@cheerdadcheervideos 19 дней назад

"Compared to the previous week" ? 16% increase of all time lows is not a lot of growth. People go into foreclosure after prices drop below what they owe. Otherwise they would sell the property and take their money.

@andreunz 18 дней назад

@@cheerdadcheervideos Most will not sell their property in Austin, as the would not know how to handle being millionaires overnight, without having DONE anything to deserve it, but just riding the American Greed wave

@nicolcacola 19 дней назад

Home price vs. income growth by decade makes it hard to deny the instability of the market.

@indc8954 19 дней назад

Don't compare income to house prices, compare income to house payments.

@sankarn9046 18 дней назад

I never seen mall near my home this empty I was shell shocked offices building up for lease something seems not right

@prashanthb6521 19 дней назад

This episode was interesting, thanks.

@caiuspostumiusturrinus1024 15 дней назад

The trustee sales page in my local newspaper (Fresno Bee) has exploded... Like... EXPLODED.

@CCQueen247 19 дней назад

YES it was Funny! Had me laughing 😂 Thank you Travis ❤🎉

@estherpalafox6604 19 дней назад

Good morning and blessings 👍👍👍😲

@John-eo1hx 19 дней назад

Those peaks in Mississippi and Louisiana where post hurricane Katrina and shouldn't be used as a barometer for how bad a normal/prolonged systemic housing crisis could get.

@CrashBr0 19 дней назад

We need a good foreclosure crisis. It's a WAY better situation than a stagflation crisis. People will suffer either way. So yes, I am HOPING for a foreclosure crisis. What do you want lower prices and rent while being broke? Or higher prices and rent while being broke?

@shanerogers9386 18 дней назад

It will mostly be the flippers and investors who caused it. And the people who foolishly supported it. Foreclose away

@user-qb8qm4mp5n 19 дней назад

Very interesting chart. IMO I think we will have a couple more years of the last 4 just not as extreme. Prices may come down a bit in some areas but not enough to match wages. Employers are not going to increase wages any more than they have. We know that.

@shannondavis5728 19 дней назад

if i could comfortably afford to buy in Florida right now with out worrying about insurance hikes,property tax hikes,home value drops/loosing lots of equity & rising maintenance cost in the future ..I’d still buy(Only if I Could AFFORD all the downsides & risk comfortably…..but I can’t!!!!)

@shannondavis5728 19 дней назад

This single family housing market & muti-family market is for wealthy folks because they can afford to take more risk without being wiped out and financially ruined for decades!!!

@sheilagrace565 19 дней назад

For example 1998-1999 CDOs hit the housing system, credit loosens, Greenspan drops rate due to Asian derivative markets blowing up = crack pipeline housing loans to securities opens up, and home $$$ predictably follow.

@E46Drew17 19 дней назад

Taste it for me Travis 😂😂😂 it was pretty funny. Good stuff Travis thank you!

@riaforza6904 19 дней назад

Tell us more about the NJ market!!!!! Please!!!!!

@JasonWalter1 19 дней назад

Good morning! 🏡😀

@pnice494 19 дней назад

Such clean videos! Nice work Jason 👏

@JasonWalter1 19 дней назад

@@pnice494Thank you very much 😊🏡

@Joshuatree7746 19 дней назад

Prices in some places are down but in my area is going up. Bidding wars. Yep, real estate is local. The interest rates will drop soon and the prices will go up. Please, please do not whine if someone else outbid you for a home that you thought was yours.

@tjnguyen2149 19 дней назад

The same as Orange County, CA.

@user-hd4jc1ct8q 19 дней назад

I see it as a 7 year period of unbalanced property. price growth to income growth, though the four-year period you highlighted was more dramatic. I waited with cash and made my best two property purchases. I still have all both properties. One is an undeveloped lot that has gone up in value six times. Another is a condominium that is largely used as a vacation rental that puts out 12.5% income on my investment annually, and has increased in market value 4X.

@nitekry 19 дней назад

People In California say'n "What are you complaining about?!" People in Texas say'n "Go back to California :P"

@user-os3qm3nb2k 19 дней назад

Need property history info, it shows people that are over priced and keep cancelling and re- listing for a "new" listing or that bought cheap, recently or need to sell, so much good info!

@d_all_in 19 дней назад

People in Texas say'n their cousin is sexy

@user-ll7um2it7d 16 дней назад

right now some of the people who are renting are richer than people got the house before pandemic and then refinanced because their monthly payment is lower than people who are renting. Plus people with homes can reduce their monthly payment by renting a spare bedroom or a garage, but renters don't have that extra space. Eviction while renting is faster than foreclosure, so renters are richer coz they are bearing the brunt of inflated rent and they are current while homeowners are still paying outdated monthly payments and may not be current.

@daninthedirt9449 19 дней назад

We are making our 1st offer today on a home 🏡 😁

@ebrisu 19 дней назад

Good, you can’t wait on the sidelines forever because you should not fight the Fed.

@House_hacker_619 19 дней назад

Good luck hopefully you get it.

@daninthedirt9449 19 дней назад

NVM it was just submitted we should hear back tomorrow

@marycollins8215 19 дней назад

Thank you.

@ebrisu 19 дней назад

Don’t forget that interest rates are ready to hit an inflection point. Buy a home when you’re ready, don’t time the housing market.

@dm-oz9yd 19 дней назад

sounds like RealtorSpeak

@House_hacker_619 19 дней назад

I heard fed is cutting rate on July. Imagine if they cut rates too early. I hope they don’t it’s scary to think about it.

@spaceindian3769 19 дней назад

@@House_hacker_619yes I know it's scary that's why people don't want to think at all😮

@rayjon237 19 дней назад

With all the bad debt if they lower interest rates lots of banks will go down, commercial lending is growing because businesses can pay the rates and need to grow or roll over old debt.. most economists are not planning on the fed cutting rates for 7-10 years . If unemployment keeps rising interest rates will go up.. to cover the bad debt...

@jackiechai1545 19 дней назад

Unsustainably Bonkers

@HODIUSDUDE 19 дней назад

Somebody is gonna win.

@hobbeeforturitpublishingll3970 19 дней назад

It takes time

@kalpanpatel1785 19 дней назад

Bonkers!!

@kimtruesdale712 19 дней назад

Bonkers!

@norahathson4318 19 дней назад

WOW it’s BONKERS!

@tslonaker4609 19 дней назад

Tasting the pie 😆 🤣 😂

@dustendawin4657 19 дней назад

The original concept of the Phillips curve has been somewhat disproven due to the occurrence of stagflation in the 1970s, when there were high levels of both inflation and unemployment. 1

@dustendawin4657 19 дней назад

This is where we are....stagflation

@Brandonhistorymakerz 19 дней назад

I’m showing this graph to every boomer who talks about the 80’s

@katydid2877 19 дней назад

People talk about the 80s when people say the interest rates are just huge today. Interest rates in the 80s were way higher, but home prices were way lower. Today most home pricing is way too high, imo. No, pricing won’t go back to 80s pricing, but I doubt interest rates will get to 16% either.

@West-Coast 19 дней назад

I have a question. I'm new to the home-buying process and am considering purchasing a house (in Portland, OR) within the next 1-2 years if prices drop substantially. At present, I'm residing in an apartment, and I'm faced with the decision to renew my lease for another year. Would it be prudent to commit to another year in light of the possibility of a housing market downturn? And if such a downturn occurs, how prolonged is it likely to be?

@House_hacker_619 19 дней назад

No guarantees if market crash or goes up. No one has crystal ball. We still have low inventory and Foreclosure still at all time low and it takes 2-3 years to show up in MLS or Zillow. There’s over 40% of homeowners had paid off their mortgage and 80% with less than 5% interest rates. My advice to my friends and family before buying a house is make sure you have a stable job, know your market, have a plan keeping the house 7-10 years and make sure it’s the right time for you. There’s a saying real estate is time in the market not timing the market. Also listen to both side of argument. I highly recommend listen to people that are successful investors. They know the in and out of the market, buying strategy and how they became successful. I’m not saying spend thousands of dollars just to pay for event or course. You can do it research. Good luck to you.

@House_hacker_619 19 дней назад

Also real estate is local here’s tips I can give you 1. As much as possible pay off your consumer debt like car loan and credit card. That way you have more purchasing power 2. Shop for rates preferably brokers 3. If you see a listing over 60 days on market. I will negotiate to drop the price or low ball. You never know if the seller is desperate 4. Look for cash flow property or as long it will cover the mortgage if you ended up renting it out. Just in case if we have a crash and can’t sell. So you have option to rent it out in case you have to move because of your job. 5. Always take care of your credit and save.

@West-Coast 19 дней назад

@@House_hacker_619 Thanks for your reply. I really appreciate it. My husband and I have no debt. We also have more than a 20% down payment (of course, it depends on the house price). Our credit score is about 765. Additionally, my husband is a veteran, so we have the VA loan option. All we wish is for the housing market to become more affordable.

@West-Coast 19 дней назад

@@House_hacker_619 Thanks for your reply. I really appreciate it. My husband and I have no debt. We also have more than a 20% down payment (of course, it depends on the house price). Our credit score is about 785. Additionally, my husband is a veteran, so we have the VA loan option. All we wish is for the housing market to become more affordable.

@bobbyguajardo9471 19 дней назад

Millennial x2 market crashes.

@Jack-pd4ps 19 дней назад

If you loose your job after waiting for a while, will you be able or willing to buy?

@xallday 19 дней назад

It depends. If you manage to get a job with no employment gap and with around the same pay you should be fine because Lenders require 2 year work history to prove income. If it takes you a couple of months to find a new job you will most likely have you income cut making it a harder loan approval because you have less buy power. You can always try to go multi family, get a no income doc loan as long as the properties cash flow (rental income) matches mortgage payment. This loan is called a DSCR and typically requires 20% down. I hope this helps good luck 🫶

@MostlyPeacfulRiots 19 дней назад

Mortgage Brokers back from the dead this AM... it's only 8:37 and 10y down .120 already 😆

@shonneglatte4041 19 дней назад

Bonkers

@Steverz32 19 дней назад

ABSOLUTELY BONKERS Travis!🤣😂

@JasonWalter1 19 дней назад

Good morning Steve!

@Steverz32 19 дней назад

@@JasonWalter1where you been Jason?🤷🏽‍♂️And good morning the spreadsheet King 🤴

@JasonWalter1 19 дней назад

@@Steverz32I’ve been slammed so haven’t had time to make videos until now. So I’ll post one tomorrow AM. Stay cool - looks like last hot day in Sacramento for a while 🙌

@Steverz32 19 дней назад

@@JasonWalter1 Ok, cause I was about to file a missing persons report for you buddy!😂🤣😂

@andypham819 19 дней назад

Bonker 👍👍😎😎

@MavRick69 19 дней назад

Top 5

@shanerogers9386 19 дней назад

The poo-poo pie was funny

@TX24k 19 дней назад

It was funny to me 😂

@jonsnow899 19 дней назад

It was funny.👍

@robertveronese4405 19 дней назад

BONKERS!!!!!!!!

@804swervin9 18 дней назад

BONKERS!!!!

@kathleendearmin8134 19 дней назад

Yipes

@carlitoslaverde5630 19 дней назад

hey Travis.. the fed is dumping hard interest rates.

@VOLVO2LUV 19 дней назад

hey

@nealkelly9757 19 дней назад

Wrong! There absolutely needs to be a foreclosure crisis, and it is very fair!

@adamknowswhatshappening 19 дней назад

The mortgage system is based around people having incomes that keep up with inflation. They printed 30 trillion on manufactured crisis to buy all assets and impoverish what will become feudal states to corporations. They will intentionally crash the dollar to install the CBDC/FedNow. The vast majority of people will work for Walmart or Amazon before the robots fully automate. They saw the end of the petrodollar coming in the end of the 80s and the advent of AI. The middle class is about to disappear. This is all intentional. So, "fair" is absolute bullshit.

@petetown13 18 дней назад

You’re acting like wage growth vs home price growth was the main factor in the gfc. There was one huge factor(ARM) that is almost nonexistent today. Stop bsing people for clicks. I would love to buy my first home but I’m under no illusion that you’re selling

@eyeinsee 19 дней назад

I dunno the lady on shark tank said prices only up, she had no data to back it up but I believe her.

@House_hacker_619 19 дней назад

@jr.6199 19 дней назад

@@House_hacker_619i agree with some of this but you're using the wrong investment strategy meme of "Time in the Market". If your friends are the ave buyers, the home is your domicile, everyone needs one, it's not your 401k for retirement investment, which requires time in the market.

@House_hacker_619 19 дней назад

@@jr.6199if you read my message make sure you have a stable job, have a plan and know the market. I bought my 2nd property in San Diego in August 2022. My plan to cash flow, keep it forever and I already have a stable jobs. I bought it for 685k with rate of 4.375 and now its current value is 895k and I made over 85k on rental cash flow. I’m not worried about crash because I’m not selling no reason to sell if my tenants on 2 ADUs are paying my mortgage and I already made 85k on rental cash flow plus I have emergency savings. I was prepared. If I waited I would’ve missed out on 85k cash flow, over 30% on equity and I just wasted 85k+ on rent.

@House_hacker_619 19 дней назад

@@jr.6199everybody has different spending habits and financial situations. In other words you buy whenever it’s the right time for you.

@House_hacker_619 19 дней назад

@@jr.6199I’m actually ready to buy right now. My issue is I can’t find any cash flow properties. I’m not buying if it doesn’t cash flow and right location. As investor I have time to wait.

@fusion82 19 дней назад

@JasonWalter1 19 дней назад

👍🏡

@magicalwishes7715 19 дней назад

It depends where you’re at I know in Arizona cause I was there this weekend at 112°. It’s booming over there that big giant chip comp is moving in there. They’re going to put up three huge buildings at $1 billion apiece so there’s gonna be a lot of jobs puma is putting in a big warehouse on the 303 and the 10. They’re just expanding like crazy construction. There’s going well all these massive huge warehouses and distribution centers are going over there. They’re leaving a lot of leaving Ontario California and headed to the corridor because the 303 the 10 is East close to Los Angeles. I was there this weekend. I’ve been going up there for 10 years, I own two houses the economy is doing good. Everybody is working and doing very. The economy is good over there. It seems like nothing is slowing up over there yet but it’s still very well. If you look at the chart on the Phoenix area, they have what you call the growth the growth and their it’s it’s unbelievable. They’re extending the freeway from I 10 from Indio, California thermal to Blythe into three lanes and both direction because of the capacity of the traffic that’s going both directions, check it out when you get a chance thank you

@TB-LivingFree 19 дней назад

LeaveAnyComment &ThumbItUp 4AIgos

@dalehutchings6350 18 дней назад

I tend to like your podcast, however I don't like the word, BONKERS. I realize you like the word. But could you tone it down a bit. It is annoying when you use it every broadcast. Thank You for your consideration.

@michaelfendley810 19 дней назад

BBBBBBBBBBONKERS

@TAA4U55 19 дней назад

Algorithm

@daveblackman816 19 дней назад

246778

@bigd2256 19 дней назад

This channel is flip floppy. Before it was a price issue and it wasn’t an inventory issue. Now it’s inventory issue…

@sprinky187 19 дней назад

Great info!!!! Side note…….You’re gonna eat what? Come on man!🫤

@crimson.source 19 дней назад

Income vs Home Prices tells you nothing about what is going on today, completely different game. Big difference from 08 and today; over 33% over mortgages were ARM (Adjustable Interest Rates), whereas today, less than 10% of mortgages are ARM. Recession is still about 2-3 years out. Here is what Jerome Powell said about the Housing Market, "Ultimately, the best thing we can do for the housing market is to bring inflation down so that we can bring rates down, so that the housing market can continue to normalize," Powell said. "There will still be a national housing shortage, as there was before the pandemic." Inflation is not expected to be under control until 2025/2026.