THIS Could Make The 2024 Hurricane Season Less 'Explosive' (3 Reasons) 

Hope everyone is doing well! In all likelihood the 2024 hurricane season will be very active. With that said here are three reasons that could make the season a little less active than expected. Thanks for watching! - Jonathan

Informative channel! I hope Saharan dust does its job and diminishes the hurricane season this year. Oddly enough I discovered that minute deposits of "Saharan dust" are an important source of soil nutrients to the Amazon rain forest. (The Netflix series "Connected" explains this.) Nice accidental use of "catch my drift" by the way, lol.

Hi, Jonathan! Thank you for another very informative video. You’re absolutely right about the Saharan dust. Here in Trinidad, we’re impacted regularly and unfortunately, air quality is forecast to reduce yet again in the coming days. I was looking at the GFS model for available precipitable moisture for us and it showed some promising rain to help quell the drought conditions over the end of this week into the weekend, but with a huge plume of Saharan dust on the way, that could definitely put a spoke in the rainy wheel 😔 I was wondering if you can explain the effect of the Bermuda-Azores High on storms in a future video 😊 Thanks again and looking forward to your next update ☺️

It doesn’t mean anyone is going to get wiped out, but it does mean Floridians will be jumpy most of the summer. It’s the nerves on edge I always hated.

That’s a good point I’ve always wondered over the last 20 years how Colorado State University officially predicts hurricanes given it’s nowhere along the coast.

Hey Jonathan. As always, thanks so much for ur weather expertise and keeping us informed on this year's Hurricane Season. 🙏😬😩😫🙏. Goodness, I can't believe it's almost that time again. Enjoy ur week. 💖🤗💖

So true 👍 we're already hearing very similar predictions of what's ahead .. for the season ... know everyone's saying way too early to start watching ... don't agree on that one ... still believing preparedness will always win out ... many of your followers are listening ... look forward to your upcoming opinions .... meantime Bim, could not be lovelier..Hopefully it's remains so .. with the whole world watching us come June !!😊❤

"Fish Storm's" 😂 SOOOO Funny.... 💯💯💯.

You are the first meteorologist and weather RU-vidr to mention the Sahara dust. Everyone else is hyping that it is going to be a busy season due to the water temperature and El Nino. I think its go be busy but the Sahara dust go play major factor

No joke. In Tampa, we really cross our fingers each year, and hoping, hoping when it is here, that it lingers because right after that Aug-Sept hell is coming. Warm waters slay us...terrible, sends them right up through cuban, key west corridor--no way out.

Love the video -

Hey Jonathan. Hello from Tampa. Another Hurricane season.

As a born and raised Floridian, I’m on edge every single hurricane season due to some memorable “hits” we’ve experienced! I’m in the Central Florida East Coast area and out of all of the “hits” 2022 was by far the WORST for us! There are still about 10 homes in my development that still have Uhauls or PODS out in there driveways because the can’t afford to get their homes fixed. It’s so sad. I PRAY we don’t get another scare like that for yearssssss to come!

Great Bruins analogy for the slam dunk. Huge hockey (and weather) fan here too.

Yeah they exaggerate the weather to charge more insurance $$$. Total BS

This is why I subscribed because we never really do know exactly how it will play out so it’s nice to stay connected to the experts and watch closely

Glad youre not hyping this season up and on neutral between ways it could be extremely active and ways it couldnt be active unlike lots of channels on youtube hyping this up more than it should.

Love that the city of Las Palmas, Canary Islands, where I was born, is on the map 😊❤

I'd like to know when the wave pool in Edgewater fl will open.

I believe in you

every time when there's a potential of a strong La Nina they always predicting the Atlantic Hurricane Season to be very active to very destructive but they always forget about the limited factors that could make the Atlantic Hurricane Season to be not so active such as SAL outbreaks they always be concentrated on little to no wind shear & no dry air & the very warm SSTs/Sea Surface Temperatures & the UOHC/Upper Ocean Heat Content which would help tropical cyclones to develop or form properly and make them very powerful but they let the limited factors that would limit tropical cyclone development and prevent them from becoming stronger such as SAL outbreaks fly over their heads like it doesn't even exist

Just spent my first winter in Southwest Florida. Chose this are because they rarely get hit by hurricanes. The activity in late September will be the factor for me returning for the winter then or later in October

I left Fardo for that reason hurricane season comes every year the place I had in Florida last year. The hurricane took it nice weather, but it’s not the place to live full-time.

1992 Andrew in August. The first A storm in 3rd month the season.

My satellite doesn't show dust going north( goes east) what satellite are you using? All i ever see is it heading west to south America

I grew up in Florida and lived there in the 1960s, 70s, and 80s. Florida went through an extended quiet period in the 1970s and 80s. Pretty much no meaningful hurricanes hit during those 2 decades. A few hit the panhandle, but the Florida panhandle then was considered a backwater and didn’t have any impact on home insurance rates in the rest of Florida. Hurricanes in Florida actually weren’t a thing until Hurricane Andrew hit. Perhaps the weather patterns were different in the 1970s and 80s, but other than the panhandle Florida just didn’t get hit by hurricanes then.

This could be 2029 Atlantic hurricane season will be more explosive. It would be La Nina of 2029-2030? If we had 32 named storms, 14 hurricanes and 7 majors. Would it be like way of 2020 or 2005? Started in early June and will end in January 6, 2030

Jonathan the only weatherman that gives a positive spin on what we all know happens every summer. A refreshing change from the end of the world doom and gloom weather forecasts.

been through 8 of em!!!

I would suggest taking a look at the Solar Cycle for its correlation to the hurricane season.

My Prediction Is To Not Let Halifax Nova Scotia Get A Hurricane This Year

How can I forget Andrew back in 1992 he took my record collection

Don’t wait until the day before landfall to decide to get ready. STAY READY!

also, true. Only takes one. I was in Harvey in Houston in 2017. So as much as I rage type against the media fear mongering, yes. It only takes one. Have an emergency plan, yes. And also don’t allow myself to engage with the irrational fear mongerers.

Great analysis most people are fear-mongering! Of course, we can never tell if the storm goes too far south and misses being brought North and out to sea, or how long the dust lasts. People have to realize the difference between active and direct land impact is two different stories. But I didn't see any maps for the temperatures in the Gulf, if storms stay South of the Sahara dust and the cooler temperatures these more likely would be headed toward the Gulf. People realize what Colorado state is saying how many storms are forming, not how many are hitting you realize they don't make that forecast that's impossible. Of course, we all hope and pray no one on the East Coast or the Gulf gets hit, that's all we can do mother nature calls the shots. And then we drink them :-)

Rapid Intensification like what occurred in Acapulco would trap millions in Florida if there was little warning to evacuate barrier islands that are all up and down the coast.

I think the Saharan dust will be weak this year. I also think that the cooler than normal subtropics versus the anomalously warm tropics will result in less competitive areas of rising motion so that all the rising motion can be focused over the deep tropics instead of being spread out over the entire Atlantic ocean. This would cause storms to keep moving westward with lighter trades and less windshear over the MDR and caribbean whereas there would be higher windshear over the subtropics as the thunderstorm activity over the tropical region would create strong upper liver divergence enhancing that rising motion and convection whereas there would be upper lever convergence over the subtropics resulting in more subsidence and high pressure. This is why it may not be all that positive when you look at how the atmosphere works.

Florida is always jumpy

Colorado State University has been was off on their predictions in the past some years, I think this is going to be one of those years where Colorado State University misses it big.

That Saharan dust is an early season phenomenon (May, June, parts of July) but is not sustainable during The Mean Season (August, September, October, parts of November). The waters are an absolute boiler, and, lately, the early season has meant BIG trouble for Gulf Coast states. LOTS to worry about this upcoming season. That said, I hope that you are more on point than not. Good luck to ALL!

fISH Storm vs Land fall....doesn't always depend on the positioning of the Bermuda high? If the high is east of Bermuda....fish storm. If the high is west of Bermuda, it can track the storm into land.....right?

Finally somebody with a brain, these hypers even the smart people tend to put everything at the highest level, then they forget the SAL.

I'm not looking for an apocalypse either, but if this indicates a new normal it could mean even higher insurance rates. Florida could price itself out of existence even before it is submerged.

Every year it's, OMG run take cover.

I dont think this is gonna effect the season, were still a month in a half away from hurricane season

One other video showed anomalous areas shaped like a big egg off the coast of Florida as you show, Bermuda and down...as COOLER than waters off the Coast of Africa. That videographer said this would intensify hurricanes, but in the past cool waters toward shore LESSONS hurricane winds... ??? I don't understand why increasing sheer is bad. I thought wind sheer blew the top off and prevented strengthening? But with other channels I don't even see this "cooler water" nearer to the Atlantic Coast. Am I imagining things, or are there inconsistencies in expectation. "The rule" apply, don't apply, apply, don't apply...are "The Rules" for hurricane behavior even real?????

Every other Atlantic hurricane analysis I've seen is just the opposite ... almost NO limiting factors and any state on the Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico better prepare for disasters.

The Bruins analogy made me nauseas even a year after the fact.

Just like the jobs report. Explosive when it first comes out, then it gets downgraded.

I would suggest you get to the NOAA SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE MAPS! There is no Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly on the Atlantic ITCZ! The temperatures across from Africa are around 26 C to 28 C that is a HURRICANE KILLER! I am not saying it will not warm up. I am telling you that the area is actually COOLING at this time (5/27/2024)

Talk to me about the dust when August and September roll around. You’re posing this opinion waaay too early.

EL caveat or LA caveat , that is the real question my friends

Where's the comment about a fart I can't find it

Did you predict that 2023 would be a very active year of storms? If so, you were wrong!

Weather video should expire after a couple of days.

It like they controlling the weather

i love how every other prediction says we will be hit with storms lol

They can't get today's weather right it's gonna be what it's gonna be whatever mother nature wants it to be.

These named storms are also a joke, if someone farts on a ship in the Atlantic they rush to make it a named storm these days.

Comment #1

I think the Saharan dust will be weak this year. I also think that the cooler than normal subtropics versus the anomalously warm tropics will result in less competitive areas of rising motion so that all the rising motion can be focused over the deep tropics instead of being spread out over the entire Atlantic ocean. This would cause storms to keep moving westward with lighter trades and less windshear over the MDR and caribbean whereas there would be higher windshear over the subtropics as the thunderstorm activity over the tropical region would create strong upper level divergence enhancing that rising motion and convection whereas there would be upper level convergence over the subtropics resulting in more subsidence and high pressure. This is why it may not be all that positive when you look at how the atmosphere works. Also the pressure difference/pressure gradient may be stronger closer to and over portions of the subtopics right near the boundary of warmer and cooler waters but the pressure gradient will slacken considerably within the deep tropics as there will still be a very LARGE area of warm waters and rising motion meaning that lower pressures of similar values will cover expansive areas of the deep tropics.

I would think soon artificial intelligence will put a lot of weathermen out of business… And with any luck develop solutions about how to control severe weather

But…but…I thought climate change made the end of the world inevitable?

Meee first

Eat good and exercise. Don't waste your money on pipe dreams.

This didn't age well.

I disagree with alot of this analysis.

So many “BUT,”s

Wishful thinking.

Is this a man a weatherman?

Want to get prepared? Follow Jesus! HE is the Way, Truth and the Life! Believers have Nothing to be afraid of, so if you’re reading this, give your heart to Jesus and follow Him!

Good luck explaining this to flat earth organisms!🤣🤣🤣

So far forecasts seem to be really inaccurate. Everytime they say it's going to be an active season, its the opposite. First they were predicting over 20 storms now north carolina is predicting 15-20. They never seem to get it right