Hope everyone is doing well! In all likelihood the 2024 hurricane season will be very active. With that said here are three reasons that could make the season a little less active than expected. Thanks for watching! - Jonathan
As a Florida Native now living in North Carolina and no stranger to tropical systems here, I hope citizens heed advice and go ahead and get storm supplies to have on hand... I start storm prepping in May no matter what Mother Nature throws at us... My family was among many that dealt with Hurricane Hugo remnants in '88, also saw the F-4 tear an 80+ Mile Path of Destruction through Raleigh to Franklin County, I keep my family on our toes when it comes to severe weather 🌪🌀
@@NickHaus683 a “super” La Niña directly following a strong El Niño is unlikely. But, there is always a low possibility, in which case the hurricane season would likely be more exciting that average. Corn belt wise, my understanding is that storms will be less frequent, but the potential for the ones that do come through to be stronger than average is a higher possibility.
So true 👍 we're already hearing very similar predictions of what's ahead .. for the season ... know everyone's saying way too early to start watching ... don't agree on that one ... still believing preparedness will always win out ... many of your followers are listening ... look forward to your upcoming opinions .... meantime Bim, could not be lovelier..Hopefully it's remains so .. with the whole world watching us come June !!😊❤
Hi, Jonathan! Thank you for another very informative video. You’re absolutely right about the Saharan dust. Here in Trinidad, we’re impacted regularly and unfortunately, air quality is forecast to reduce yet again in the coming days. I was looking at the GFS model for available precipitable moisture for us and it showed some promising rain to help quell the drought conditions over the end of this week into the weekend, but with a huge plume of Saharan dust on the way, that could definitely put a spoke in the rainy wheel 😔 I was wondering if you can explain the effect of the Bermuda-Azores High on storms in a future video 😊 Thanks again and looking forward to your next update ☺️
You are very welcome! Thanks for watching! I will 100 percent work on a video about the Bermuda-Azores high. That’s a really good idea. Thank you again! - Jonathan
Informative channel! I hope Saharan dust does its job and diminishes the hurricane season this year. Oddly enough I discovered that minute deposits of "Saharan dust" are an important source of soil nutrients to the Amazon rain forest. (The Netflix series "Connected" explains this.) Nice accidental use of "catch my drift" by the way, lol.
Thanks!! It’s the ultimate catch 22. Does good with the fertilization of the rain forest and weakening hurricanes, but also fertilizes red tide and other algae blooms. - Jonathan
That’s a good point I’ve always wondered over the last 20 years how Colorado State University officially predicts hurricanes given it’s nowhere along the coast.
It doesn’t mean anyone is going to get wiped out, but it does mean Floridians will be jumpy most of the summer. It’s the nerves on edge I always hated.
Hey Jonathan. As always, thanks so much for ur weather expertise and keeping us informed on this year's Hurricane Season. 🙏😬😩😫🙏. Goodness, I can't believe it's almost that time again. Enjoy ur week. 💖🤗💖
As a born and raised Floridian, I’m on edge every single hurricane season due to some memorable “hits” we’ve experienced! I’m in the Central Florida East Coast area and out of all of the “hits” 2022 was by far the WORST for us! There are still about 10 homes in my development that still have Uhauls or PODS out in there driveways because the can’t afford to get their homes fixed. It’s so sad. I PRAY we don’t get another scare like that for yearssssss to come!
I’ve lived in fl my whole life (35 years) pinellas county and never been directly hit. Knock on wood. I always say one year we will get hit. Praying to god it doesn’t happen. With inflation, condo assessments, high insurance costs, this year seems like it would be the perfect storm 🙈
No joke. In Tampa, we really cross our fingers each year, and hoping, hoping when it is here, that it lingers because right after that Aug-Sept hell is coming. Warm waters slay us...terrible, sends them right up through cuban, key west corridor--no way out.
Glad youre not hyping this season up and on neutral between ways it could be extremely active and ways it couldnt be active unlike lots of channels on youtube hyping this up more than it should.
Just spent my first winter in Southwest Florida. Chose this are because they rarely get hit by hurricanes. The activity in late September will be the factor for me returning for the winter then or later in October
As a native Floridian born in Broward county. Ft Lauderdale area I'm 66 now who ever gave you this info is highly mistaken S.W. FLa gets hit second most area in all of Fla. N.W. Florida gets hit the most. Historical records actually show the most powerful storms were during the little Ice age. Back in the 1700 hundreds.y mom was from Bellglade and she lost family during the Sept 1928 storm. Only time will tell what happens this summer but the climate is in a constant state of change and I believe these climatologist are just fear mongering. We have to many northern transplants in our state We really are hoping our current governor builds a northern wall and kick out all the Yankees who have ruined south Fla. Way worse than any hurricane has ever come close to So just stay home. I'm sure your safer there.
Jonathan the only weatherman that gives a positive spin on what we all know happens every summer. A refreshing change from the end of the world doom and gloom weather forecasts.
I left Fardo for that reason hurricane season comes every year the place I had in Florida last year. The hurricane took it nice weather, but it’s not the place to live full-time.
every time when there's a potential of a strong La Nina they always predicting the Atlantic Hurricane Season to be very active to very destructive but they always forget about the limited factors that could make the Atlantic Hurricane Season to be not so active such as SAL outbreaks they always be concentrated on little to no wind shear & no dry air & the very warm SSTs/Sea Surface Temperatures & the UOHC/Upper Ocean Heat Content which would help tropical cyclones to develop or form properly and make them very powerful but they let the limited factors that would limit tropical cyclone development and prevent them from becoming stronger such as SAL outbreaks fly over their heads like it doesn't even exist
Yes, this is 100% accurate!! Those are very important pieces to look at too, and people who aren’t familiar with hurricane seasons don’t know about this and get instantly scared! Thank you for pointing this out! 🫡
I grew up in Florida and lived there in the 1960s, 70s, and 80s. Florida went through an extended quiet period in the 1970s and 80s. Pretty much no meaningful hurricanes hit during those 2 decades. A few hit the panhandle, but the Florida panhandle then was considered a backwater and didn’t have any impact on home insurance rates in the rest of Florida. Hurricanes in Florida actually weren’t a thing until Hurricane Andrew hit. Perhaps the weather patterns were different in the 1970s and 80s, but other than the panhandle Florida just didn’t get hit by hurricanes then.
This could be 2029 Atlantic hurricane season will be more explosive. It would be La Nina of 2029-2030? If we had 32 named storms, 14 hurricanes and 7 majors. Would it be like way of 2020 or 2005? Started in early June and will end in January 6, 2030
That’s crazy! I see you did watch this video. This again highlights the factors that could throw a wrench into the record-high forecasts that’s are out. Even so I mentioned this is wish casting, but if the season isn’t as active these would be the reasons why. - Jonathan
I think the Saharan dust will be weak this year. I also think that the cooler than normal subtropics versus the anomalously warm tropics will result in less competitive areas of rising motion so that all the rising motion can be focused over the deep tropics instead of being spread out over the entire Atlantic ocean. This would cause storms to keep moving westward with lighter trades and less windshear over the MDR and caribbean whereas there would be higher windshear over the subtropics as the thunderstorm activity over the tropical region would create strong upper liver divergence enhancing that rising motion and convection whereas there would be upper lever convergence over the subtropics resulting in more subsidence and high pressure. This is why it may not be all that positive when you look at how the atmosphere works.
I extremely highly doubt that the SAL outbreaks is gonna to be weak this season well at least in the first half of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season such as June & July and early to mid August but I can't speak about the second to last half of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season such as mid to late August and right through October
plus they've said that the SAL was gonna to be weak along with no dry air and no wind shear at all during the 2020 and the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons but both seasons turned to have very strong SAL outbreaks & a ton of wind shear and dry air until the latter half of both seasons which both seasons turned out to be back loaded seasons
Actually SAL was pretty strong in 2020z that’s one of the reasons why we didn’t have a hurricane until the H storm. Then it backed off late in the season like it typically does. Thats when the bad stuff happened. - Jonathan
That Saharan dust is an early season phenomenon (May, June, parts of July) but is not sustainable during The Mean Season (August, September, October, parts of November). The waters are an absolute boiler, and, lately, the early season has meant BIG trouble for Gulf Coast states. LOTS to worry about this upcoming season. That said, I hope that you are more on point than not. Good luck to ALL!
Colorado State University has been was off on their predictions in the past some years, I think this is going to be one of those years where Colorado State University misses it big.
Rapid Intensification like what occurred in Acapulco would trap millions in Florida if there was little warning to evacuate barrier islands that are all up and down the coast.
Great analysis most people are fear-mongering! Of course, we can never tell if the storm goes too far south and misses being brought North and out to sea, or how long the dust lasts. People have to realize the difference between active and direct land impact is two different stories. But I didn't see any maps for the temperatures in the Gulf, if storms stay South of the Sahara dust and the cooler temperatures these more likely would be headed toward the Gulf. People realize what Colorado state is saying how many storms are forming, not how many are hitting you realize they don't make that forecast that's impossible. Of course, we all hope and pray no one on the East Coast or the Gulf gets hit, that's all we can do mother nature calls the shots. And then we drink them :-)
also, true. Only takes one. I was in Harvey in Houston in 2017. So as much as I rage type against the media fear mongering, yes. It only takes one. Have an emergency plan, yes. And also don’t allow myself to engage with the irrational fear mongerers.
fISH Storm vs Land fall....doesn't always depend on the positioning of the Bermuda high? If the high is east of Bermuda....fish storm. If the high is west of Bermuda, it can track the storm into land.....right?
I'm not looking for an apocalypse either, but if this indicates a new normal it could mean even higher insurance rates. Florida could price itself out of existence even before it is submerged.
One other video showed anomalous areas shaped like a big egg off the coast of Florida as you show, Bermuda and down...as COOLER than waters off the Coast of Africa. That videographer said this would intensify hurricanes, but in the past cool waters toward shore LESSONS hurricane winds... ??? I don't understand why increasing sheer is bad. I thought wind sheer blew the top off and prevented strengthening? But with other channels I don't even see this "cooler water" nearer to the Atlantic Coast. Am I imagining things, or are there inconsistencies in expectation. "The rule" apply, don't apply, apply, don't apply...are "The Rules" for hurricane behavior even real?????
I would find credible sources. There is a cool anomaly off the Carolina coast toward Bermuda. They may be showing actual sea surface temperatures rather than anomalies. The cool pool may induce wind shear which is BAD for hurricanes like you mentioned ruined because it will blow the tops off. Why this pattern is bad though is it will force up and focus thunderstorm development where the water is warm leading to more organization. - Jonathan
I would suggest you get to the NOAA SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE MAPS! There is no Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly on the Atlantic ITCZ! The temperatures across from Africa are around 26 C to 28 C that is a HURRICANE KILLER! I am not saying it will not warm up. I am telling you that the area is actually COOLING at this time (5/27/2024)
@@just_weather You are full of it! I have the North Atlantic data maps from NOAA. It is between 4 an 6 degrees below normal in the north Atlantic -- Stop Lying
Every other Atlantic hurricane analysis I've seen is just the opposite ... almost NO limiting factors and any state on the Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico better prepare for disasters.
There’s always limiting factors. If you listened to the analysis I mentioned that other things should prevail…however if the season is whiter than expected this is the reason why. For example…the extremely warmer pacific could help to promote more storms over there. The basins typically don’t compete with each other. When one is active the other isn’t as active. And I mentioned that everyone needs to be prepared. - Jonathan
Not entirely true. Some storms I agree probably shouldn’t be named but they do meet the definition. Better satellite technology to do that. Either way pay attention to the hurricanes. Can’t really argue of something is a hurricane or not. - Jonathan
Actually near average and I was wrong. 2023 the the 4th most active season on record. We were lucky that most of the stayed out at sea. It can be active without it being impactful. This season appears like it will impact more people. - Jonathan
I think the Saharan dust will be weak this year. I also think that the cooler than normal subtropics versus the anomalously warm tropics will result in less competitive areas of rising motion so that all the rising motion can be focused over the deep tropics instead of being spread out over the entire Atlantic ocean. This would cause storms to keep moving westward with lighter trades and less windshear over the MDR and caribbean whereas there would be higher windshear over the subtropics as the thunderstorm activity over the tropical region would create strong upper level divergence enhancing that rising motion and convection whereas there would be upper level convergence over the subtropics resulting in more subsidence and high pressure. This is why it may not be all that positive when you look at how the atmosphere works. Also the pressure difference/pressure gradient may be stronger closer to and over portions of the subtopics right near the boundary of warmer and cooler waters but the pressure gradient will slacken considerably within the deep tropics as there will still be a very LARGE area of warm waters and rising motion meaning that lower pressures of similar values will cover expansive areas of the deep tropics.
That is correct. That’s why I mentioned that storms would likely miss that wind shear. I do agree with the temperature Anomaly. The cold on top of warm pattern does oftentimes signal above normal activity for the reason you mentioned. I mentioned that all signs point to an active season, but the smallest thing can derail a forecast. - Jonathan
Want to get prepared? Follow Jesus! HE is the Way, Truth and the Life! Believers have Nothing to be afraid of, so if you’re reading this, give your heart to Jesus and follow Him!
I would think soon artificial intelligence will put a lot of weathermen out of business… And with any luck develop solutions about how to control severe weather
@@just_weather Don't worry, Jonathan. I did watch, and I listened, but it's 7am where I live (Australia) and I can't write a decent comment before my first coffee! I get all the points you made about Saharan dust, recurving storms, and wind shear over the northern Atlantic. But, honestly, I think 2024 will be an especially bad year for the continental USA. You gave the reason, too! More storms are likely to move into the Caribbean and these storms will likely be the strongest and wettest ones because they'll be in the sweet spot where there is less wind shear. I've seen a few of your videos now. You're always very informative and insightful. Cheers.
So far forecasts seem to be really inaccurate. Everytime they say it's going to be an active season, its the opposite. First they were predicting over 20 storms now north carolina is predicting 15-20. They never seem to get it right
That’s actually not true at all. There hasn’t been a below average season since 2013. The above average predictions over the last decade have been spot on. Each forecast outlet predicts their own. That’s not an update. - jonathan
