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frank, good info. I have been looking at it and it works out more often than not. I used it last night (11/2/2021) also the lakers and it paid. thanks for the win.
I think what makes this a +EV strategy is humans simply extrapolate which also helps when it comes to the o/u #. Like oh man it's a bad night for so and so, def hammer that under! That may help offset any pacing issues.
I agree with this strategy I think it’s a long term winning strategy probably hits at over 60% long term I’m going to use it today with my live bet 1/4 unit
@@Me-Apesta-El-Rifle I cashed the 3/4(75%) -76ers team total over 96.5✅ -Warriors/Thunder U232.5✅ -Thunder Team Total U107.5✅ -Lakers/Spurs U235❌ (but they went to OT would have cashed in regulation)
2 opportunities to use this method tonight (10/26/21) and went 2 for 2. Had no expectations so if I went 0 for 2 I would have still tried it again tomorrow. But with 100% win rate so far I'm gonna be using this a lot. Coincidentally the Lakers was one of the games lol
I'll be curious to see how well this works. I've ran the numbers so far on 6 games. The games where both teams are well below their average, the line is adjusted for that. Vegas has the 2nd half figured for a LOT more than what was scored in the 1st. On games where they are close to their averages, the line is about the same as the first.
Yeah I was wondering about that. Is the strategy to just bet the over ( using his scenarios and numbers for when to bet over) no matter what? Or should there be an adjustment to what the book changes?
@@mikedeveau7075 Well it definitely depends on if the book runs it too high. If all you bet is the over, you will lose. When the books think they are going to do MUCH better in the 2nd half, they inflate the 2nd half totals often way too high. Tonight, I actually took the unders on 3 out of 4. Those were the 3 I won. lol
@@coachtim6188 so if I have it clear, perhaps it makes more sense to use the averages as he states, then react to the book adjusting for the second half? In effect pick over/under according to the average shoot % and where Vegas places the totals.
@@mikedeveau7075 YES!!! EXACTLY!!! The part he gives here about using the averages from the year is good. The bad part is they do NOT mean the teams will go over the book's new prediction for the 2nd half. They OFTEN, VERY OFTEN, go under. I'm winning more under bets than I am overs. The books often over-inflate what will happen in the 2nd half. So yes, use the averages, try to predict how much the teams will either improve or digress from what they did in the 1st half, then make your bet based on what the books did. Again, I'm winning a LOT more going under than over, and these are games where both teams WAY underperformed in the 1st half. The book are simply adjusting the 2nd half way too high and quite often..
I like this strategy, the way i use the law of averages tho is when i see a team shoot bad vs a team thats on fire i take the spread from the team that im expecting to shoot better and the team thats om fire to coke back down to earth. So i have a play when the teams are shooting opposite percentages instead of when theyre both under performing or over performing. I bet on the team thats under performing vs the team thats over performing in the first half.
I actually did this on 6 games, 4 of which were WAY below their normal shooting averages. I went 1-5. How can this work if Vegas has the line corrected assuming the same thing we're assuming, that teams will get closer to normal in the 2nd half?
The teams have only played 4 games this season you have to let teams play to get their average FG% 4 games won’t let you get what their average is going to be on the season.
@@LINEMAKERSPORTS I totally get what you're saying, but the losses aren't a result of not having enough data. They are a result of the books anticipating the same thing we're anticipating, the teams playing either much better or much worse. I"m now on night 2 tracking this method. I'll use one game from tonight as an example. 1 team was 15% below "normal" and the other 18% below their previous average. They corrected that in a HUGE way in the 2nd half right back up to their normal previous average. Both finished within 4% of their previous averages by the end of the game. The total scored by halftime was 98 between the 2 teams. Vegas set the 2nd half line at 123.5. 123.5!!!! LOL Even though only 98 had been scored in the 1st half. The books knew they would score a crapload more just like we did. So it did not cover. Vegas is using the same averages we are using to estimate how much different the 2nd half will play out.
I get what you are saying....but at the end of the day this is still a gamble lol you just have to see if it's worth the bet or not. Obviously if your betting with alot of money stakes are higher
one thing that maybe missing is factoring in the defense of the teams but if this strategy works more often than not its a winner i work at night so i may never know.
Sounds like a good strategy and probably works on CBB as well. The only thing I’m thinking about is defensive stats. I mean is a team shooting above or below their average 1st half simply because they’re having a good or bad night? Or is it because of the defense they’re playing against?
My question is, if this method is successful and profitable in the long run - wouldn't you be more profitable by live-lining team total's? I mean, couldn't u manipulate the numbers better? Would love to hear what you think. Thanks for the video
Wouldn’t you take that percentage increase and then add it to the total score for the first half to better determine if it’s going over or under? For example the lakers 39% needs to get up 8% for their 47% average. Wouldn’t that determine they’d shoot 8% better so you could work out how many shots that would equate to (could even add 3p%) into these calculations. So you’d have a better idea of how many made shots they will have by the end of the game to meet average ?
For instance if 39% got them 60 points then 47% would get them approx gaining 4/5 points extra taking their total to approx 124/125? And then do that same maths for the suns and find the true game total?
Might be a stupid question. Just to clarify, is this for the 2nd half total or the full game total based on the first half. Also are we talking team total or game total?
Good video, but if the game is close at halftime I would be cautious about betting the under. A potential overtime would always probably result in losing any under wager.
Like the strategy but isn't the whole season fg% avg the wrong way to look at it? I understand it's the broadest sample but I would assume the averages of the matchups is the number to track even tho that's maybe one or 2 games. Probably good to use the last time two teams meet for the season. Lakers could avg 47% across all the teams but maybe against the suns it's like 42%. Or you would have a higher success rate with the two teams who have the tightest FG% variance ?
i got the 7 day trial for arbitrage betting, it doesn't match the sports books, it literally doesn't match what the sporks book has for example we have blazers vs pacers o/u 215.5 one book at -182 and the other at +200, the o/u total isn't 215.5 at all on the books
This doesn’t take free throws into account. Every point scored counts to the total and the game may finish over instead of under a certain total number of points
Okay but with all these percentages what I'm confused on is how would you know who to pick? Because even though they are shooting this as a whole who is actually getting the majority of the points?
I like to use the under total when both teams exceed more than 25% their average quarter/half time points. Yesterday there was a game with 70+ points in just one quarter. The total line went crazy high. But it was impossible to keep that pace and 3 pts they were doing.
@@coachtim6188 Yep. So far so good. Only using this approach already gave me too much money that my bookie just gave me a stake restriction for O/U NBA. Another strat that is insanely good is for each team not to score 25 in the last QT. If they make some quick points early, this line jumps to +130 or higher very quickly. Last QT i expect them to be more tired and less productive. The record so far is 13-5 with odds always higher than -105.
How would you alter the strategy if say a big player was missing ex: LeBron? Would you do some sort of on/off query to see what the Lakers fg% are with LeBron off the court?
Yes they absolutely do. One game tonight the first half had 98 points so Vegas set the 2nd half line at 124.5 knowing they would score a ton more than they did the 1st half. They did not cover the 124.5 for the 2nd half.
For real you really can't claim this is profitable just by pretty much betting over when first half has been low scoring and vice versa. It would be totally different thing if the lines wouldn't adjust during the game. Pretty much sure this is a sure way to make -ev bets.
The other thing to consider is pace / possessions? If there is upwards fg% catch-up for the second half, u want to hammer this on fast pace teams. If Spurs shot 10% in 1h and they avg 45% but pass the ball around 5 times on each possession, still gets u way under. Or is this factored in somehow?
It's not meant to be used on every game, only ones where the numbers for both teams in first half make sense. Basically, games where both teams are underperforming or overperforming substantially in the first half.
Fg% at halftime may highly help your judgement/prediction to estimate we this score be under/over yes have the nba helps to instantly check teams season stats & probability
Anyone run this and what’s your record in hindsight, I’m sorry this doesn’t seem like a great strategy but I’m curious to hear from someone that tracked this out
Parlay over/unders it allows to pick higher or lower totals (which ever your deciding to pick on a specific game) and if your conservative with it and do a 3 leg parlay it boosts the payout while still playing it safe
Yeah I have a really good strategy, to not parlay. There is no long term winning with parlays, ever. lol The only time I play parlays is with risk free promotions.
This is not legit. Tempo matters and who’s playing matters. A team can shoot a lot and have not a great shooting percentage but put up a lot of points due to the tempo they play in. This video tells me everything I need to know about this channel. You need to know the game not math to be winner.
