Mike Kutzler - yeah, but he also got his money in good in half those hands. Take out the first hand where we can't say for sure it was a cooler, and the other three hands are 1-2 for getting money in good (as in, he was behind twice), with Dwan losing all 3 (got his aces cracked by kings, couldn't catch up with AKs, and couldn't crack Danger's aces with his own kings). I'd like to be able to criticise him for these, but generally he was doing fine.
"Okay, before we sign off I want to introduce you to a new segment we're gonna call ... " My mind was racing. Could it finally be? After all this time; the shit posting; the antics. Could we finally have "Polker Hands?" " ... 'the bonus hand.'" My heart shattered in two. I couldn't believe. How could he have led me on like this? I tried to pick up the pieces, but I was clearly on tilt and had to find the closest bottle of liquor.
Regarding pot no. 5, as I recall, at the time Dwan would indeed have led out with anything. That was his style in televised games as well. He was practically always "polarized ". Also, these players knew each other well, which may have played into it also.
BONUS Q: If we give BB a calling range of 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, A2o+, K4o+, Q6o+, J6o+, T6o+, 96o+, 86o+, 75o+, 64o+, 54o, our gutshot has 30.6% equity on this board texture. Conveniently, we need 29% equity to call villain's reraise. Whether we proceed to later streets depends on our history with our villain, e.g., his reraise gives creedence to a made hand. Personally, I'm likely to see the turn and hope we get closer to making our straight. OTF, we have an 18% chance of making a straight. I'm a bit of a nit, so if I brick on the turn, I'm check/folding.
Bonus Hand: Lars: Generall in this spot at this level a balanced range of raising and calling here both mixed with value and drawing hands. Folding out no equity hands and mixing the rest with calling and raising. Raising on Flop: With this specific hand call or raise is fine, but I'd lean towards putting this hand in the raising range, it has poor showdown value so taking the hand right now is good and there are lot of good hands on turn that gives more equity. If raising here I'm raising pot with my whole range. Turn after flop raise: Durrr would have likely called the raise with his hand and checked back on most turns with that hand. If checked to on turn then Lars should barrel with nearly his entire range [maybe not if board pairs], again with a pot sized bet. Durr would find a really hard time continuing to a turn pot bet without improving. If Durr bets turn then reraise back half pot on 3,7 and on some 8,T,J,Q,K turns but otherwise fold. Calling Flop: If I decided to instead put hand in calling range on flop then Durrr would likely bet most turns. So Lars would likely have to fold most turns except if he improves, raise with a 3, call with a 7,8. If checked to however, Lars could bet pot on 3,T,J,K and some 7 and 8's and check the rest.
Bonus hand: I'd raise on that spot, up to probably something around 39 000. I like weird numbers cause you make your opponent think about it, so actually probably to like 39 350, or 40 125. Why would I raise - cause i want to have betting lead on the turn if my opponent just calls (and he will just call in 90%+ of the time and then checks turn as well OP) and then, depends of the turn I could choose my option: - bet strong and represent overpair if some low card hits, and bet strong also if big card hits - checks if I hit nuts most of the time, and also check if top card pairs. Also i could check if i change my mind and realise he's strong and in that case i can see 2 cards for free, instead I just called raise on the flop where I would probably have to call large bet again on the turn for the same effect - to see 2 cards, it cheaper my way. - And of course, opponent could just fold to that 3-bet on the fold, which is great cause we have nothing. I mean, when I play NLTH, thats the way i play it IP in those spots, I wanna put some pressure on my opponents.
Bonus hand: I'm most likely floating the check raise on the flop. Then probably folding turn if I don't pick up anymore equity. All 3 options are debatable though.
Doug, in the first hand (or number 5) depending how you look at it. When Durrrr leads out on the flop with the set do you think it is possible that he is thinking how his hand would normally be played and decides to bet instead to make his opponent think he is donk lead bluffing? The only thing that i could think of is reverse psychology the way he plays the flop
I think Dwan's flop bet is really based on having the Ad, he can barrel turns more effectively and he blocks the nfd so gets called less. He probably feels more has more 2x in his range than the other players as well, even though his 2x seems fairly limited from the sb
Bonus hand: I would prefer having only a calling range in this situation. I mean vs Dwan you want to include some strong holdings like sets, because he is capable of overbetting a lot. That said, I would continue all of the made hand I did cbet, ( 9x+ ) and all of my gs. and maybe very few backdoor str+fd ( JcTc ).
with my poker knowledge i would say that dwan might raise there oesd and gutshots with some backdoors flush draws so i would call looking to play some turns /rivers and why not bluff it all cause it seems to be that when players check raise such a dry flop they give you the power cause u can easily float them and exploit their leaks cause check raising it seems to me that narrows ur range. :D
Raising: 64,34s,55,22,half my nines, 1/3 of my 95,all 52s and 92s,. Calling: any pair, rest of my gut shots, 67, rest of 99s,rest of 95 and filling out rest of my calling range so I defend enough of my hands with something like AJ+ and probably some overs with backdoors.
Comments: My raising range should be fairly balanced since for example the (theoretical) hand Aces has 47% equity. 34s is good as a raise since it has zero showdown and bad reverse implied odds against 78 but has good equity. 64 is in the range for reasons above except the reverse part. The rest of the gutters either have more showdown or good implied odds against other gutters. I am more inclined to raise the two pairs and sets that block less value and call with those that block value. The rest of my calling range is straightforward.
Pretty clear call. You have position deep stacked playing 294 bb's back effectively, so the implied odds are very good. Playing this deep stacked in position heads up with a hand that draws to the nuts, unless facing an absurd raise can never be bad. Also you want to be balanced in this spot with all of your value hands as well, which you should also be flatting on a board texture like this. When you flat in this spot you can still have a fairly wide range and be able to play turns and rivers fairly well in position. You have 22, 55, 99+ for value hands, all straight draw combos, and also some combos with 5's and 9's and your smaller pocket pairs as well. Let's see a turn!
Fold 64o bc we have better bluffs that are able to pick up more (barrel/bluff) equity ott such as 64s (34s/67s/78s). If we're calling or raising all combos of 64o then we're also calling all 67o/78o etc which seems like way too many especially as our value combos are limited to sets and (probably) only some 2p as I'm unsure if we open all 2p combos pre (92o/52o). Also being offsuit blocks a fairly relevant portion of dwans bluffs + we obviously unblock all his value.
the A9 vs 64 hand, this deep, i'm calling to play turns n rivers. i don't really have a bet/3bet range here... doesn't make too much sense considering dwan is already repping the 2pair/set with the check/raise so a 3bet would be kinda random, mostly for equity denial against semibluffs. however the profit gained from equity denial is probably going to be less than the profit gained from simply calling down and picking off the turn/river bluffs. curious what ended up happening that hand!
Bonus hand : i would almost always call in that spot. Gut shot is to the nuts and no flush draw. In 300bb pot that is huge. You can always try some stab in position on later streets in a pot that didn't go too large. Risking a 3-bet is not totally out of the way but with no back doors i tend to ''randomize'' on the passive side. Plus i would hate to face a 4-bet and fold that nut equity. In my opinion, folding is very bad in a 300bb pot in position.
Hey hey Doug. Great vids, discovered ya 2-3 weeks ago, love your poker input. For the question. Considering stacks and that I would have position. I'd look for pot control and elect to call and play some turns and rivers. If I were to hit the nuts or gain a pair on the turn i might elect to raise on those. Id be weary of most cards above 9 and look to put pressure with cards below 8 that turn. If it was lower stacks id elect to fold against an aggressive opponent such as Tom Dwan. Keep up the good work!
Hi Doug, here is my view on the bonus hand (actually I can't understand the deepstack cash game i.e. 300+bb, especially HU, and I have no data on the opponent(like vpip, pfr, af, wtsd, w$sd, cbet. fcbet etc. BTW in my opinion data may be useless in short-handed game because every pro can adjust his strategy instantly): First, the preflop pot should be $6k. Then, this flop may be the most boring board in NLHE: no flush or straight draws. Cbet is good for representing a overpair. However, when I faced in reraise, I will choose to flat with 46o. The opponent's check-raise 3x (12.7bb) represents a 9, or hit a pair on the flop, or even a draw like 67 68 etc.(These hands have about 40% equity against two over cards) If turn shows 3(8%), it will be nuts. If turn shows TJKQA(40%), it may slow down the opponent's action (but I'm not sure if TD will) And if there shows 952(18%) paired board, the opponent will also slow down his action: if he has trips, he won't bet too large for value; if he hits 952 and has two pair, he is beated by overpair so that he will choose check-call since his bet will be useless. And if there shows 8764(32%), he may not barrel again because we call his reraise at flop so we show the strength of my hand, and these low cards will not change or improve much except some weird hands like 67 68 which is unlikely in my range to call the reraise at flop. All in all, I will choose to flat in this situation, and let me see the turn to make a new decision. In fact, I think 46o's cbet is useless. There is not much value on this flop. Thus, I will choose to check back to see a turn.
On the bonus hand, I'm flatting to keep ranges wide. I'd take a passive line on blanks trying to rep TT or JJ with river bets, and an aggressive line on A, K, Q trying to rep over cards that floated. I just don't think JJ is three betting this flop given Dwan raised on such a dry board. I'd expect him to have a bluff or a really strong hand most times - interesting he chose to raise A9. Thoughts?
Quick question for you Doug, How much of your success would put on inherent skill? Could you become a really good player with practice or is it down to that inherent skill. Thanks in advance.
I'm 3-betting. 1) It's consistent with my pre-flop and flop raises. 2) I'm playing Tom Dwan so I'm not giving up after one check-raise. 3) Tom flatting pre-flop makes him having a set, 2-pair or an over-pair on the flop very unlikely. 4) The flop is rainbow so Tom doesn't have 4 to a flush (so he won't have an easy flush-shove following my raise). 5) You don't get rich from folding. You get rich by piling on the pressure.
>2) I'm playing Tom Dwan so I'm not giving up after one check-raise. Bad reasoning. You need to protect only part of your range to x/raises, not 100% of your range. >3) Tom flatting pre-flop makes him having a set, 2-pair or an over-pair on the flop very unlikely. Why he wouldn't flat with 22,55?
Lars should flat to hit gutter, or 3 bet to rep OP like TT or JJ. Given durr's raise, Durr has at least 9x with a good kicker, and possibly TT, and maybe even JJ depending on how tight Lars' opening range has been upto then. Thus, l'd lean towards a call by Lars, with repping any face card on turn.
I would look to give up the hand a reasonable portion of the time, but generally I like calling the flop raise with 64 and trying to hit my gut shot on the turn, then either folding to a donk bet if I don't hit or checking back (at those stakes anyway) and betting favorable (scary-ish) rivers assuming that I miss my draw and I'm checked to on both turn and river.
Fold the gutters that do not have a bdfd and bluff with those that do on later streets. Ace3/4 and 34 and36 are hands in Lars range. It feels like an over bluff spot if all gutters are floated and bluffed with because to value after facing on x raise on most rivers a hand like 99/55/22 and 10 10+ are needed and there's only 39 of those. That's just my logic in these sort of spots. I hope that's the right logic
I believe the answer is a mix of B and C. The price is right to call, maybe get lucky and hit your straight; if not, you have the option to bluff or fold, depending on the fall of the turn...3 bet it foolish, because if he 4 bets, your in a horrible spot...Lets not forget, this should be based on the fact that you would not normally know what durrrr is holding.
1st hand. I think dwan has leading bluff range here. As you said some gutshots and open enders and i ve seen tom leading with complete air on A high board.
Against Durrr on the hand, I think I'm just calling, and I don't really see how calling can be bad. You always have the option the raise turn/barrel river when he leads the turn, and you can also rep a lot of over cards that might come on the turn (including the A, which would be bad in this specific instance). Your opponent most likely didn't flop a set given the check-raise on such a dry board, so his most likely hand is a pocket pair like 66-88, a 9x hand, or a bluff himself with 67,68, 87 type hands and maybe a hand like A5s or A2s with a backdoor flush draw, and I guess wheel draws(?). Against those hands you have all sorts of possibilities to take the pot away on the turn/river and stacks are deep enough that from a simple implied odds standpoint your draw is worth calling the flop.
Nice segment Doug! I think folding is not an option. You have some play ability with 4 outs to the nuts and position. So its between 3bet and flat. And imo this comes down to how dwan is playing turns. Id much rather 3bet a hand like 64 of diamonds/clubs/spades so i have more turns to barrel on. I think youd have to mix it up here. You have 63/67/78 that are similair hands if youd 3bet all of them youd likely 3bet a little too much. That said i do like the 3bet option. You have FE on the flop ,you can barrel some turns, put allot of pressure on your opponent and reev the river.
On the hand of the day - I think I would 3-bet trying to represent a high pair like KK or AA and if Durr calls I shove the turn. But let's be honest, if I was playing for that much money no way I would actually have the balls to do what I just described XD.
>if Durr calls I shove the turn Pretty weird option giving that you have 300bb+ stacks and you have only gutshot w/ no additional equity (like overpairs, bdfd, etc.)
Alexander Root ./ Well, maybe not shove but bet very big and intend to shove on the river/call a shove which makes the same impact as shoving on the turn :)
rather raise with bdfd, raising offsuit combos of every gutter would be way too imbalanced and i dont know if playing sets that fast on such a dry board in general would be good.
When a guy 3 bets with some many hands it's tuff to put him on AA KK or Ak the range is so wide it makes it very tough when two people actually pick a hand up these guys play fast and good it's very hard it's easy to Analyze just watching 5 hands
i fold my 64o here. tom can have bluffs like 68/87/67cc/dd/ss etc type bluffs, but we have better bluff combos than 64o to continue here. being deep id rather continue with hands like jts, 34, A4/3s and turn them into bluffs on later streets dependant on board run outs, mix in some value hands like 2 pairs sets, overpairs, id probably wouldnt raise any hand vs toms flop chk raise and look to play some turn cards
probably never 3betting the flop there, would want to slowplay with sets or overpairs so basically have no value hands, ergo; no bluffs. I think folding is probably fine, but against durrr I'd probably go for a float and look to take it away on turn or river depending on the runout and action ahead. Would definitely float with a BDFD. This actually highlights one of the problems of playing too wide against aggressive opponents who don't fold preflop, you end up having to stick around in pots with really weak hands.
Durr seems so wild, idk what the typical raise and opens are. I guess by this action it seems neither are that strong. Durs raise suggest he's Durr or has a 9. I feel by the action that a raise proly won't get re raised because he could still have anything at that point. A re raise call adds equity and more reason for Durr to bet if you do hit the straight. I think the 64 off is pretty hidden considering he opened and if an over hits you could also rep that with a bluff if you think Durr does not have an overpair, considering he did not re raise the open he is proly not that strong.
Warning: long analysis durrrr's range is severely capped in this spot, as he probably 3bets 99 pre, as well as any overpairs to this board. He's probably not continuing pre with 92, 95o or 52o, and will probably elect to 3bet 95s and 52s rather than call OOP. As such his value range when raising this board is probably 55, 22 and A9, while his most obvious bluffs are gutshots like A4s, A3s, 76s or 87s with a backdoor flushdraw, or 43s if he flats that pre. Lars on the other hand has an uncapped range, and can have all the sets, all the 2 pair hands as well as all the overpairs, all of which are ahead of 66% of durrrr's value range in this spot (6combos of sets, 12 combos of A9), as well as all of his bluffs. So what hands should be in our raising range? Does durrrr ever 4bet in this spot? If he calls A9 and 22, and 4bets 55 and some bluffs, that makes his calling range fairly weak, with A9 making up 80% of his calling range. That would make any deuce in our hand really powerful as a bluff, as he would have only 1 combo of 22 in his calling range vs 12 combos of A9. His 4bet range is also absurdly narrow. So he probably shouldn't have a 4bet range in this spot. With 99 we should definitely look to raise here and keep blasting on all turns and rivers when called, as the fact that we have two nines in our hand makes it very likely that we're looking at a set over set situation. 55 is the effective nuts as well, so that seems like a no brainer to go for full value. 22 should raise, but probably check behind on turn when called (except when the turn is 9), and call or bet/call river. 52 and 95 should be played in the same way as 22, except 52 should check on all turns. 92 (if we have it in our preflop raising range) should play the same as 95. AA should not raise as it blocks A9, making it more likely he has a set. We could go for some value by 3betting KK and QQ, looking to check back turn and call or bet/fold river, but now we're starting to get so wide that 4betting the flop gets more attractive for durrrr, putting us in a tough spot. For that reason I think we should just call with all overpairs looking to bet when checked to on turn or river. This leaves us with a value range of 99, 55, 22, 52, 95 and 92 for 3betting the flop. What about bluffs? When we raise here and get called durrrr will have either A9, 22 or 55 going to the turn, meaning 2/3 times he's going to have a hard time calling down all three streets, so we should definitely have a good amount of bluffs in our range. I would bluffraise every time I have a 5 or a 2 in my hand, making it less likely for him to have a set. I would also raise an openended straight draw and a gutshot with backdoor flushdraw, without an ace in my hand (46cc for example). That should be more than enough bluffraises here. Therefore I would put 64o into my calling range here, looking to balance my flop calling range so that I have some bluffs on turn/river.
Nice writeup, it makes a lot of sense. Thanks for putting this here. In your Lars range construction for 3betting you put all specific hands into a single category. So you put all your made trip hands in a rising range. You could consider balancing ranges by mixing raising and calling even within specific hand, potentially based on suits. So for trips leave one combo of 5s and 4s each in your calling range [ say your least preferred colour suited combos, I least like diamonds :-) ]
hey Doug, can you analyze some of high-stakes hands like Ryan did? OtB_RedBaron, fish2013, Ike, etc. Some crazy stuff like calling 100bb w/J-high. It's always fun to watch such pots.
I think calling there is fine if he makes his straight it would look disskised and they were quite deep but I don't think all the money would of gone unless the river was the action card
You cant really say what players should have done or even ask what people would do in their situation, if they don't have past hand history. As a poker coach, I would think you'd know that.
Bonus hand: I'm just calling, hoping to hit and make a very strong and well-hidden hand. If I raise, I risk getting reraised and forced to give up my equity.
Call and probably bluff turn if checked to but not call again. We'll have better gutters to continue with if barreled at and better bluffs for turn AND river (87/86/76/A4/A3).
Totally. I just watched this for the first time, and with the image Durrr had back then the opponent's plays are totally reasonable. It's like evaluating Roman warfare and commenting: "Here, they should have called in air support!"
I really like this channel because we have here all that a poker player need: Lions, dolphins, a shot clock, ceramic pottery, and i almost forgot, cristiano ronaldo... Hey Doug, give me a light in this bonus hand. In a flop with so many gutters i think a agressive player like durrrr would be barreling a lot OTT and you would probabily would have to fold a weak hand like 64o. You could float flop and turn but i think it is too risk. So i dont like calling here. You could 3-bet the flop but i dont think you would be 3-beting over pairs here, because what would you do if he 4-bets. I mean, im very confused here, seems like we dont have a good option but fold.
