The betting odds placings are based on the outright market. If a country is placed 10th it doesn't mean the exact predicted place is 10th but otherwise it's not possible to create a video like this. Odds of Top 10 / 15 could be slightly different but not far away from the outright market. Odds were taken during the live shows before the voting.
How is Italy 2017 not in here? 😯 It was nr 1 in odds but ended up 6th, so a difference of 5, like all the ones in the beginning. Plus it's arguably a much bigger flop if you're a sure-fire nr 1 in odds for a long time and yet end up 6th, than someone 15th in the odds ending up 20th, that doesn't really make such a big difference ;)
We honestly have so many good artists and whoever runs it always sends artists nobody even here knows of. We could pack a good punch if the organisers want to, they just won't take the risk 😫😫😫.
@NS-un5lz . Bookmakers aren't expressing who they think will win. The odds are based on $ being bet on each country. Main bookies are British and Irish so they are always at risk from local singers hence shorter than deserved odds. Luckily for them UK and Ireland have been almost useless so they keep the money. The winner is usually one of bookies favorites
@@somethung8188 absolutely, maybe Top 10 is a little bit much, but I don't get, why it ranked that low, at least Top 15 would have been great. And Sweden's entry was also merely a teen pop song, but it finished 3rd, so this might not be the problem. Although maybe if you consider the gender issue, I don't know. In my opinion, Estonia should have ranked higher and Sweden lower.
Times a country has been overrated by the oddsmakers: UK 7 times Ireland 4 times Spain, France, Finland, Norway 3 times Italy, Germany, Malta, Azerbaijan, Greece, Denmark, Estonia, Australia 2 times Austria, Sweden, Lithuania, Slovenia, Croatia, Romania, Armenia, Georgia, Hungary and San Marino 1 time ( _If I made a mistake counting, please comment and correct me, and I'll change it_ )
Surprisingly few deserved (much) better in my opinion. Some of those predictions were crazy from the start, like who really believed in the success of "Love Will Set You Free"?
Why did people think Storm 2018 would win? The only reason people remember it is that it was hijacked, there were plenty of great songs that year idk why people were betting on that
@@michellesmirnova4471 It was around 20th-26th in the odds most of the time, only went up to 8th after the stage invader and people put money on her to win cause they thought she would get sympathy votes
im guessing quite a few of these flopped either because of low televoting scores OR low jury scores (for instance uk 2011 was 4th in the odds and came 5th with the televoting but 22th with the juries), so it would be interesting to know which entries flopped the most consistently with both (like adrenalina came 21st with the televoting and 18th with the juries despite odds predicting it to come 10th)
@@SigmaRho2922 i knew the jury would have it low but based on the hype it was getting with fans and the attention it was getting in the media i thought it could possibly get top 5 with the televote (also it was my favourite pop song of the year so i expected people to vote for it regardless of flo rida)
I knew Rockefeller Street will be in this list but didn't expect it to be first. Also it was a surprise for me that Storm was quite high in odds, didn't expect that either 😊. Greetings from 🇪🇪!
Great vid. It's interesting to see how difficult it was to predict the placements of the early 2010s and for each year there are less surprises between the bookies predictions and the final placements
The UK 2018 is a bit unfair cause the only reason she shot up as she did was when she got invaded before the show she was hovering around the 24/25 mark
That’s what happened this year with Malta and Switzerland. Both winning their semis but placed 6th and 11th!!! They deserved a later running order. THEY were shafted for sure!!!!!
@@rogercook9693 Malta, yes. 6th was not a good spot. And also there was an influx of female vocal pop bops in the final that competed for points. But Switzerland had a genuinely good running position, just that the grand final had more acts that competed for votes with him as well that weren't in Semi 2, which definitely contributed. Televote is a lot more competitive typically in that aspect, and while Switzerland finished Top 3 overall, televote 6th is still very in line with the points he got in his Semi performance where he came 3rd in televote.
@@eurodara It was probably because "Lipstick" sounds almost exactly like a 2010-2011 hit song, so, combined with Jedward's energy and a very radio friendly song, they thought Jedward was in the running.
knowing now how much of an impact rockefeller street made and how it’s known basically all over the world, it’s crazy to see that it flopped this hard in eurovision
2011 Ireland and France (Best/true winner) 2014 The Netherlands and Italy (Best/true winner) 2016 Austria (Best/ true winner) 2021 San Marino deserved high place
Also we have to rmb just because these songs all flopped doesn't mean they're necessarily bad,they were just completely overshadowed by other songs from having more points.
Saara's song was amazing, but her staging was so weird and lackluster. Which is weird, because her style basically IS Eurovision. I've always wondered if she wasn't given creative control.
@@angelbipboup9096 Barbara didn't win because of Switzerland. Many saw the two songs as french ballads, so they kinda cancelled each other. But 2nd and 3rd is still very good.
@@sandroribeiro7644 It would be more right to say Barbare took Gjons victory.. Since he was a favorite 2 years in a row.. YES he was the favorite in 2020
I guess UK was so high a lot of times, because British people bet a lot on ESC and people tend to overhype their own entries? Most of those songs were garbage.
Idk, from what I've seen a lot of British people (except from the really extreme patriots) hate our own entries, so no idea what's up with a lot of them. I'm assuming Surie was only because of the stage invasion and Engelbert maybe because he'd had pretty big songs in the past? Edit: it probably was just the extreme British patriots betting a lot of the time though, lmao.
@@joelatkin1214 they were fine, but Molly was sloughtered by the staging and "I will never give up on you" had very basic lyrics, which made both entries just fine and nothing outstanding tbh.
Watching this back and seeing some of the betting odds for the earlier years, I don’t think the bookies took the running order into consideration back then like they do now….. saying that though, to think Englebert would’ve come anywhere else other than bottom with that song was madness
The problem with these odds is they based on the entire betting market, which would include the weeks before Eurovision. A song like Sognu for France in 2011 was popular before Eurovision, then crashed at Eurovision. There wasn't time for the betting market to adjust, especially when many peope don't see rehearsals. Countries in semi finals obviously get visibility and the market adjusts. Ideally, use the odds before Eurovision starts or you need a fresh market that is started after semi finals are complete.
It’s very shocking seeing the UK so many times here. The weirdest year was 2011. It was all over the place. The bookies got a lot of the entries very wrong.
Video idea - do the same but also include those that didn’t qualify for the grand final since you can still see the placement history of the eliminated countries
I think that we can all agree that Senhit shouldn't be here 😕 Jessica Mauboy was also criminally underrated, especially comparing it with their song from 2017
I think many of the flops happen because of the tv audience who never watched the music videos nor listened to the songs. As long as I remember the odds are based on the fan reception of each song. (Please tell me if I am wrong)
I feel like the only person that didn’t like San Marino’s entry this year ^^’ It wasn’t bad but in comparison to the rest it was meh. Senhit’s vocals weren’t great and the song itself wasn’t very memorable or interesting to me. The performance was decent and they had good energy, but I’m not surprised people didn’t vote for it. I don’t think Europeans really know who Flo Rida is either, and I doubt anybody is a big enough fan of him to vote purely for that reason. If anything his presence was the only reason anybody remember the song.
I think it's not fair to take the bookies rank during the final, because they put often high the UK at the last moment (and we have a lot of british entries in this top). But good job :)
So, in 2011 the betting odds made soooo much more sense than the actual results! France had by far the best song of the year (although the presentation was quite underwhelming, but still top5 worthy) . Finland was the best act. Estonia was top3 material both as a song and as an act. Yes, 2011 was a very weak year but a so ultra-dull winner like Azerbaijan was too much of a stretch. The only hint of sense in the top5 was Denmark. My top10 would be Finland, Georgia, Estonia, Denmark, France, Greece, Albania, Spain, Latvia, Germany.
I think that in the songs where the difference between the betting odds and the actual results is the same, the better placing songs in the finals should place lower in this list instead of higher because the list is rather a countdown of bad bets to worst. In a sense, the countdown reflects bad results in relation to the odds, number 1 being the worst. So higher placements in the actual results is much better than lower placements even if the difference in the odds and actual results are of the same distance. For instance, for all the entries with 5-placement difference, the one placed in the lowest rank in this countdown, at number 50, should be "Zero Gravity" as its final result was 9, followed by either "When We're Old" or "Walk on Water" at numbers 49 and 48 as both placed 12th. Then 47 is "Voices," placing 14th, 46 "The Secret is Love" at 18th place, and 45 and 44 either "Where I Am" or "Mata Hari" as both ended in place 20. Saying "Zero Gravity" performed worse than "Mata Hari" kind of does not make sense. Anyway, still enjoyed the video. Thing is, I just love countdown videos whatever they are for because I get to see as many Eurovision entries as possible in a short period of time. Hehehe
Adrenalina in my opinion performed a bit worse than I expected to (15th-20th was my prediction). Germany 2013 and Finland 2018 didn't deserve their final results.
Where is Cyprus? Cyprus had many underrated entries such as 2012, 2016, 2021, but you have included so many weaker songs. Also, you repeat the same countries.
See idk how I feel about that, like Ireland 2018 4th, it was next to last before the rehearsals and then as soon as they started it shot up to 4th. I think like with many songs in this video, it's a case of the odds being dramatic as soon as rehearsals begin. Not saying you're wrong or anything but like I was saying Ireland 2018 wasn't high in the odds until even the first semi. You'd think with the odds that it would reflect what people think of the songs prior to the competition. :)
I’m not sure that it’s possible to find numbers prior to the show tho? Maybe in some instances but I believe the website only posts what the odds were at the end
In March 2021, I warned everyone about San Marino’s entry entitled Adrenalina. Even though Flo Rida was featured on the song, I predicted that the song would not finish in the top 10 because of concerns of the song being too similar to the song Cyprus sent in 2018. I predicted that the expected placing of 15th-20th would be because of a low jury score and a middle of the pack televoting score. Having read many news reports about GameStop experiencing a short squeeze in January 2021, I realized than San Marino was the GameStop of Eurovision. The experiences that I had with Germany in 2013 and Finland in 2018 made me uneasy to give Adrenalina the same score as those entries. Just like with what happened with GameStop the song collapsed to the ground at the contest due to a 22nd place finish. But 4 songs with nul points in the televote made this situation worse.
2011 was a weird year.There were several claims that azerbaijan rigged the contest (the french delegation sent a complaint that Azerbaijan sabotaged amaury's performance). But hey, we will never know
The truth is that Eurovision 2011 was terribly bad, regardless of whether there was manipulation or not, if there are 3 performances that are good, there are still too many for that Eurovision
