Tymna & Kraum cEDH deck tech

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So I collect data from various cEDH tournaments and this is the most popular commander but also the one with the best winrate in total. So I think we need to talk about it. DECK TECH!
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Опубликовано:

30 сен 2024

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Комментарии : 86

@ИванЧурносов-с3щ 6 месяцев назад

Thank you for the video. It was something I was hoping to one day. I am always glad to find people who are willing to analyze top decks. Could you please share your insight about these cards: 1. Serra ascendant 2. Reanimate 3. Dispel 4. Breena 5. Mindbreak trap 6. Rite of flame 7. Cabal ritual

@tylervecchiola9944 7 месяцев назад

Thanks for more of the great content! Love your work

@ApophisMTG 7 месяцев назад

I’m curious if you can share recent data on Serra Ascendant in Blue Farm. Thank you for everything you do!

@thomasnoonan2039 7 месяцев назад

Do you happen to have the list of cards for Blue Farm that have a winrate in the deck that is above average for the deck itself?

@cedhtv 7 месяцев назад

I don't personally play bluefarm myself. So no.

@thomasnoonan2039 7 месяцев назад

@@cedhtv I just meant like at @2:35 for instance, Dismantler is "in the green" so to speak because its winrate is higher than TnK's average. Just wondering if you kept a list of cards like that. If not, it's cool. Love what you do!

@stellerhippo9961 7 месяцев назад

Love the videos, I wondering if any of these cards deviate much from the average from the average win rate: Culling the weak Birgi. god of storytelling Necropotence Touch the spirit realm

@cedhtv 7 месяцев назад

Culling the weak = 26,68 % winrate So still good. It is in red with -0,85%. But still good. Necropotence = 31,06% winrate, so ... good! touch = 25,99% winrate so also good or decent. Birgi I don't know. I have problems with that card as its actuall name is Birgi, God of Storytelling // Harnfel, Horn of Bounty and the // is something my system don't understand. I am trying to figure out how to solve that.

@XICI0US 7 месяцев назад

I'd be curious for the stats on Serra Ascendant.

@cedhtv 7 месяцев назад

Serra ascendant have 371 tournaments etrys that is an inclusion rate of 33% so it is kinda popular. But it has a winrate of 25,51% and that is a drop of -2,02%. Still it looks fine. But maybe not recommended anyways. Hope this helps.

@matthewspear2053 7 месяцев назад

Hi Mons I really enjoy these videos, but I've always been confused by the p-values you include at the bottom of each screen. I assume it's the probability that the null hypothesis (that there is no difference) is true, but checking a few the p-values aren't lining up. Could you clarify what statistical test you are doing and what probability the p-value on screen represents? Thanks!

@cedhtv 7 месяцев назад

the Null Hypothesis (H0) states that there's no significant difference in average winrates between two player groups: 'WINS' (players who won games) and 'LOSS_DRAW' (players who lost or drew) in tournaments. H0 assumes that any winrate differences are likely due to random chance, not a real advantage. TWe try to statistical test checks if the data supports rejecting H0 and concluding a meaningful difference in winrates between these groups. If you want to talk or any better syggestions for improvment pleas contact me on discord or here if you feel like it. I am not 100% sure this is the best method. I am like 90% sure tho. But would still love to talk if you have suggestions or ideas.

@matthewspear2053 7 месяцев назад

@@cedhtv thank you for the response, I absolutely agree with your methodology but the actually p-values are still very different from what I am calculating. I posted my code on the discord.

@rustybucket26 5 месяцев назад

Would love stats on: Mox opel Trouble in Pairs Delney, Streetwise Lookout Dress Down March of Swrling Mist

@cedhtv 5 месяцев назад

This video is a bit old and there have been updates. I do plan on making a video on deleny. But in the future I think I will make a new video for tymna kraum. as lots of updates have happend. But for now deleny video first.

@alijafri3943 7 месяцев назад

It would be awesome to have a table with all card choices, their inclusion rates and their win rates next to each other in column form. Please let me know if you can share that in anyway. I'm playing in mox masters on Sat and it would be great to have filterable card choices.

@cedhtv 7 месяцев назад

It is a bit hard to do that. And risky. Stats isen't everything. You can get missled. But I can think about it. Maybe there is a good way.

@jasonwhisnant5457 24 дня назад

I'd actually like to see what the core deck is right now and what the "flex slots" might actually be. I know this might be a colossal task, but one I'd be quite interested in!

@cedhtv 24 дня назад

you have a lot of lists on the link in the video description. I can't share links here. But it will take you to a lot of tymna kraum decklists.

@coreyhayslip5418 7 месяцев назад

Had a small tournament this past weekend. Around 60 people and I added a couple cards to try in tnk. Angel's Grace is great and I tried the new delney Streetwise Lookout and it performed pretty well for me

@cedhtv 7 месяцев назад

I think Delney is going to be great. Feels good.

@bobthor9647 7 месяцев назад

How many creatures did you have that benefit from Delney besides Tymna ? My list has 6

@coreyhayslip5418 7 месяцев назад

@@bobthor9647 mine has esper, tymna, ragavan, lotho, dockside, bow boy and not that it matters thoracle

@crazzywhiteguy1 7 месяцев назад

lion's eye diamond? or more specifically intuition+ underworld breach + sevinne's reclamation without LED

@cedhtv 7 месяцев назад

First we have to say that I only have 6 decks that have played: Underworld breach - Intuition - Sevinnes and brain freeze + lotus petel without lions eye diamond. So the sample size is ultra small and we can't trust the winrate. But the winrate is 25%. So it works. But most decks or close to all, like all will include lions eye diamond. But in budget lotus petal will do the job.

@SmogHouseTradingCo 7 месяцев назад

partner was a mistake

@cedhtv 7 месяцев назад

I might agree.

@evanlarson9427 7 месяцев назад

Are you comparing decks that run dauntless dismantler only against decks that did not but could have run dauntless dismantler? For cards that are printed recently, I don’t think it makes sense to compare the win rate of decks that use them to decks that could not have used them.

@cedhtv 7 месяцев назад

For all solo cards I compare it to ALL tymna kraum decks.

@collint957 2 месяца назад

Serra ascendant please 🙏🙏

@SmogHouseTradingCo 7 месяцев назад

One issue I have is trying to compare individual cards with the historic data. For instance, Dauntless winrate should be compared to the total winrate since it was available to be in decks. This data set needs to be blocked into the different versions that were possible at the time.

@BAdCommander 7 месяцев назад

I'd love to see a video of silence effects. Ranger captian vs. orums chant vs. vail of summer vs. defence grid

@cedhtv 7 месяцев назад

That is a good topic actually. Wheels is next but this is a good one to look into.

@hchoeiberg 7 месяцев назад

I think your math could use some work. Basically, what you did in the end: comparing win rate with cards included and without should also be what you do for individual cards. So not: how do bluefarm deck with Breach perform vs all blue farm decks but rather how do they perform vs bluefarm decks without beach. I think that would shed some light on just how terribly Ledger Shredder and Voidwalker performs here

@cedhtv 7 месяцев назад

I guess I could look into something like that.

@hchoeiberg 7 месяцев назад

@@cedhtv would be helpful. Thanks for all the great videos both on this channel and the gameplay channel

@morganbrewer4029 7 месяцев назад

You’re the best Mons!! Been waiting for this video for a while, thanks for all your hard work 🎉

@cedhtv 7 месяцев назад

Big thank you for that! Happy to read that people like these videos.

@adrianlacarcelsanchez785 7 месяцев назад

Id like to know percetages for Forbidden Orchard and Mox Amber if possible, thanks!

@cedhtv 7 месяцев назад

That is a strange request I didn't expect. But I am here to please. Those 2 have 1264 tournaments entrys togheter in the same deck. And they have a winrate of 24,46% togheter. The total winrate without them is 21,68% So it seams they are doing good. Hope this helps.

@dasfabelwesen 7 месяцев назад

Meme betrail has been just better for me than yawg will when i pitched it to force

@cedhtv 7 месяцев назад

Hahah! Well said that is funny.

@Rizso1 7 месяцев назад

looking at draw rates is interesting as well

@cedhtv 7 месяцев назад

YES!

@jonatansegacar1827 7 месяцев назад

What do we think about breena?

@cedhtv 7 месяцев назад

I don't like giving cards to my opponents.

@thedismayer1196 7 месяцев назад

I’m currently building this deck is there a place where I can look at the solid core of the deck before deciding individual preferences like additional clones?

@natepetras6143 7 месяцев назад

I just played in SCGcon Hartford this past weekend. I tested dropping The One Ring for Smothering tithe because I can generally draw enough cards and just not have enough mana. And I was quite satisfied with my findings.

@cedhtv 7 месяцев назад

That is interesting to hear.

@natepetras6143 7 месяцев назад

@@cedhtv Also, just wondering on the results using Cursed Totem. That was my other swap specifically targeting Najeela and Kinnan. I ended up dropping dress down for it.

@cedhtv 7 месяцев назад

Cursed totem has a winrate of 20,27% so....

@natepetras6143 7 месяцев назад

@@cedhtv appreciate it!

@duncangillies1960 7 месяцев назад

What website does Mons use to gather these stats from?

@cedhtv 7 месяцев назад

edhtop16.com/?tourney_filter__size__%24gte=64&tourney_filter__dateCreated__%24gte=1659422080&colorID=null This website.

@duncangillies1960 7 месяцев назад

@cedhtv thank you! Hopefully us MonoG lists start showing up on your top lists soon. #Yeva

@ИванЧурносов-с3щ 6 месяцев назад

P. S. And Delney, streetwise lookout

@ShaneSierrasChannel 7 месяцев назад

been waiting on an updated one of these ahahaha thank you

@cedhtv 7 месяцев назад

your welcome.

@FizzarolliJ 7 месяцев назад

I would love to see a deck tech on why Talion has such a low winrate.

@cedhtv 7 месяцев назад

I have actully made sone on this channel. If you search you should fine 1 or 2.

@Diranix 7 месяцев назад

Thanks for a great video! I was surprised about miscast and its low winrate. So i thought about counterspells at all. Which one of them a really good and not just overhyped?

@cedhtv 7 месяцев назад

Counterspell is not so good. It has a low winrate overall kinda. I mean you did see mana drain in the video with low winrate and counterspell will have even lower then that.

@Diranix 7 месяцев назад

@@cedhtv I meant all “counterspell-type” cards. Like "spell pierce" or "dispel", or any another of them. For example I like "daze" a lot, but it’s not a very common card to play. Also I choose "miscast" over "force of will" because it’s a lot cheaper and has almost the same effect. How that cards will potentially affect to my win rate? And I wonder about counterspells in other colours. Are they any good? And should I play them in non-blue decks?

@kyuubisaiyan3 7 месяцев назад

Hello what are you thoughts on the whole opus play idea with tymna kraum, without ad nauseam but with peer into the Abbys, because of the whole big cmc cost I play a lot of four drops like sheoldred, notion thief, smothering tithe, and the one ring?

@cedhtv 7 месяцев назад

Well it kinds looks like it is working. But I do personally belive ad naus is just to good here. I would personally stay on ad naus. Maybe drop a 4 drop maybe?

@kyuubisaiyan3 7 месяцев назад

@@cedhtv thank you for the input 🙏

@sigisiegert 7 месяцев назад

Thanks for your work! I would also second the idea of a table with all card choices, their inclusion rates and their win rates next to each other in column form, if you can somehow make this work. Aside from that i´d love to get the numbers for the following cards: - Toxic Deluge, Damn (especially when compared to Fire Covenant) - Cavern of Souls - Clone effects (mainly being Phantasmal Image, Phyrexian Metamorph and Flesh Duplicate)

@cedhtv 7 месяцев назад

You know what. This deserves its own video I think. Board Wipes in general and clone effects in general. Or both concepts deserves its own video. So I will start looking into both on a bigger scale I think. You see clones are starting to showcase more and more promise the more I look at them.

@eridevonta1384 7 месяцев назад

@@cedhtvI have the same question as Sigi. Thank you for your work!

@sigisiegert 7 месяцев назад

That sounds like a good idea. Maybe make videos for every category of cards (clones, sweepers, counterspells, fast mana, spot removal) independent from specific decks and maybe add the specific impact different decks have on those (f.e. more creature heavy decks like blue farm or tymna decks in general favoring fire covenant while decks with high toughness like tivit might favor toxic deluge more). Nonetheless, could you be so kind and provide me with the numbers for my requested cards for blue farm specifically? :)

@joshmathis2142 7 месяцев назад

Awesome video, good job as always, thank you! Would you have the information on the win % of counterbalance and/or sensei’s divining top?

@cedhtv 7 месяцев назад

Ofc! Those 2 togheter have 569 tournament entrys. But a winrate on 19,44%. Where the average is kinda on 22,08%. So they are below the average.

@joshmathis2142 7 месяцев назад

Great to know, thank you!!

@roggeotube 7 месяцев назад

Man!! I really love those static videos. I am a math professor and my decks always are influenced by numbers. So, Thanks a lot for this video and for the Krarkashima also. I play both. I have a question: What is the average number of creatures in T&K decks?

@jelkojerbic7051 7 месяцев назад

I am trying to build the best tymna-rennsilas artifact deck possible.. just for variance. Any suggestions or links to decks?

@TripsAhoy 7 месяцев назад

🖤🖤🖤

@timo7972 7 месяцев назад

Nice video

@DeckCheckMTG 7 месяцев назад

Excellent as always

@DeckCheckMTG 7 месяцев назад

Can you give us a bit more info on Necropotence? It's a pretty hot topic rn.

@cedhtv 7 месяцев назад

Ah yes. We have 90 tournaments with it and a winrate on a crazy 31,06%. Forgot to look into it during the video. Sorry.

@coreyhayslip5418 7 месяцев назад

Does tnk need necropotence? I'm not an expert that's played it for a long time but I've played a couple tournaments now with my list and it feels like it's not needed.

@DeckCheckMTG 7 месяцев назад

@@cedhtv thanks very much! :)

@jayceh 7 месяцев назад

Interesting, implies teferi decks without kitten perform quite strongly? Curious to see some of those decklists Would be interesting to see, if you split the decks by total cmc in 5 or 10 buckets and remove the auto-includes and lands, if the "flex slot" cards being cheaper vs more expensive correlates to winrate

@Poorcana 7 месяцев назад

The fact that people choose Talion as their commander over Nymris truly baffles me

@khangnguyen260 7 месяцев назад

Talion draws more cards on average just for staying on board and is cheaper. What is surprising?

@MasterDecoy1W 7 месяцев назад

Greater turn 1 potential, more potent card advantage, threatens life totals with ability and combat. Nymris only seems better in a hard control or as an anti-aggro card, neither of which seem very important in cEDH.