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Ukraine & Russia - Game Theory 

Econ Lessons
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Historical outcomes are approximated with game theory and game simulations. However, games also have predictive values when a model is constructed. This is a conceptual framework of the geopolitical events in Ukraine and Russia.

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26 сен 2024

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Комментарии : 342   
@danh9002
@danh9002 4 месяца назад
Excellent analysis, and... shocker, the results table you're showing matches what is happening in Ukraine.
@marcom.88
@marcom.88 4 месяца назад
Of course it does, the video is a week old.
@anderslarsen4412
@anderslarsen4412 3 месяца назад
​@marcom.88 Your comment makes zero sense.
@marcom.88
@marcom.88 3 месяца назад
@@anderslarsen4412 Why?
@nkristianschmidt
@nkristianschmidt 3 месяца назад
always been most comfortable absorbing attacks before attacking. But infiltration works too. Just need to unsettle opponent to take it apart.
@Zorro33313
@Zorro33313 3 месяца назад
he stated russians should not gain land and smth about see-saw, while in reality russians already gained 25% of ukraine and destroyed 4 ukrainian armies weaponized and trained by the whole NATO feeded with NATO survailance data. First ukrainian army was destroyed by russians at 3 to 1 disadvantage. This analysis is pure copium bullshit.
@CJusticeHappen21
@CJusticeHappen21 4 месяца назад
"Only Fools Fight In A Burning House." I feel like that should be the motto of the world.
@EconLessons
@EconLessons 4 месяца назад
Its a Klingon Original series quote.
@original_pranxter
@original_pranxter 4 месяца назад
A fool takes hostage inside a burning house, what then?
@edwardhammond5582
@edwardhammond5582 4 месяца назад
Really enjoying these different and very useful perspectives. Keep going Mark.
@AhemLd
@AhemLd 4 месяца назад
This video can be divided into two parts: 1. Game theory analysis of frontline changes and explanation of the meaning and effects of army strength ratios in modern warfare 2. Ideological pronouncements about the evils of the Russian regime, the goodness of Ukraine and Western-style "Liberal Democracy", and grand whig-historical teleological narratives
@anderslarsen4412
@anderslarsen4412 3 месяца назад
TBF "the evils of the Russian regime" is just objective truth at this point..... only an evil fascist sympathiser would disagree on that after seeing what's been going on with Russia since Putin took control.
@Stevie-J
@Stevie-J 3 месяца назад
Before the invasion, Ukraine was frequently described by western media as being anti-democratic, anti-free speech, and unbelievably corrupt. None of that has changed, but the media has swapped out Russia for Ukraine when they run those stories. It all looks a bit silly to anyone that's been paying attention over the years
@SHW5010
@SHW5010 4 месяца назад
Thank you, super appreciate your unique insight and perspective, much appreciated.
@somesome23231
@somesome23231 4 месяца назад
I say it as Ukrainian. Your formula misses the capacities. Human resources, economy, support (that reduces), political system strength, social capacity, buget issues, migration, state efficiency. I They all low in Ukraine. I can't put in the formula, but the feeling and play of those mechanics produce in my head only negative outcomes. Max 1-2 years and collapse under the pressure of bunch of issues.
@чиабатта-р9с
@чиабатта-р9с 4 месяца назад
Don't forget the same factors in Russia. It doesn't have infinite resources, especially political and human.
@jerrywatson1958
@jerrywatson1958 4 месяца назад
I was wondering when you would release a new video. Thanks for this. I really like sane analysis of the numbers. It helps keep the emotions down to focus on the problem/dilemma at hand.
@commandertopgun
@commandertopgun 3 месяца назад
Mark, another amazing inspiring positive video, I love it. With some of these updates I have to listen to it over 2-3 times, but I don't mind. Thank you for your outstanding heartfelt advice/opinion & care for making the world & a better place & for supporting Ukraine & defending democracy.
@surelyyoujokemeinfailure7531
@surelyyoujokemeinfailure7531 4 месяца назад
This is fantastic stuff. Thank you for this video.
@johnc2438
@johnc2438 4 месяца назад
Great video! Thanks for your work and your reports on RU-vid! Salute to you from a retired U.S. Navy chief petty officer in the Pacific Northwest.
@barryhamm3414
@barryhamm3414 4 месяца назад
If Ukraine can hold its defences, continue to strike oil refineries, and sanctions are maintained then a Russian collapse is inevitable, possibly in 2025. Otherwise, Russia on its current trajectory will still collapse but it will take longer. When watching videos from Russia, turn the sound off and ignore whatever is being shown but instead look at the roads and other infrastructure. This is a country in decline and living off the remnants of the USSR.
@dvgsun
@dvgsun 4 месяца назад
"a Russian collapse is inevitable, possibly in 2025" really ? we still believe in this ?
@rhensontollhouse
@rhensontollhouse 4 месяца назад
Just what my statistics professor kept saying, “you will find digression analysis quite useful”, my eyes rolled. Years later had to admit he was right on.
@RockyFjord-wj8jf
@RockyFjord-wj8jf 3 месяца назад
Lunatic like John Walsh.
@EconLessons
@EconLessons 3 месяца назад
Its a lot of fun to put in the context of gaming ideas
@Tyler-wl8kq
@Tyler-wl8kq 4 месяца назад
I can’t believe you don’t have more viewers, your a genius in my humble opinion
@EconLessons
@EconLessons 4 месяца назад
Working on it. Thanks
@rhondabailey9238
@rhondabailey9238 4 месяца назад
A stream with you and Jake Broe would be interesting, @@EconLessons
@funki4896
@funki4896 4 месяца назад
Not a genius. Just someone who knows what he is talking about. A rare sight nowadays unfortunately. None of the things said in the video are revolutionairy or groundvraking but still true. I agree that those old school games had more emphasis on the actual matter - game play and probability tabkes and tgat newer ones cobcentrate on broader appeal to the masses to compete with other spectacular visualy appealing action filled games.
@MarcosElMalo2
@MarcosElMalo2 4 месяца назад
Modern games have the goal of psychologically drawing you in and keeping you playing (and where applicable, manipulating you into buying). The old war games, the strategic simulation games Mark is talking about (from SSI) aren’t designed for player enjoyment. They’re designed for historical accuracy and accuracy of the model. This is why such games weren’t popular. They attracted a specific audience: people with plastic organizer boxes for organizing little square cardboard pieces that represented military units. I’m not disagreeing with you, just elaborating on what you said.
@animal11011
@animal11011 4 месяца назад
Possibly the most intelligent presentation of the conflict I have watched in two years of this war. I hope some of the other channels I watch will refer to this presentation because it is an excellent message. BYW when you have a new video, I always watch it first. It is clear you get satisfaction with each video and in my opinion each of your videos keeps getting better in my opinion. See you soon
@EconLessons
@EconLessons 4 месяца назад
Thank you sincerely.
@dannydetonator
@dannydetonator 4 месяца назад
I agree it's intelligent and empiric by American standards. If you like intelligent stronger on deep inside first-hand knowledge and philosophy rather than statistics, i suggest these three chanells: Silicon Curtain, Vlad Vexler and Inside Russia.
@Zorro33313
@Zorro33313 3 месяца назад
this is the most intense cope i've seen so far in this conflict lmao
@dammitdad
@dammitdad 4 месяца назад
Very poor analysis. Elementary grade. The ratios are well known in military theory. What you fail to understand is that the resources are not on par. Russia has significantly better equipment, strategy and personnel. They also have a compelling reason to not be destroyed by western hegemony. Ukraine is lazy, extremely corrupt and believes it has unlimited western resources and they are supposed to be the technically best. None of this true. Territory has nothing to do with the smo. This is a siege and meat grinder. Ukraine and its proxies are throwing everything they have to defend their line. Russia produces 90% of the worlds ammunition. The west is out of ammunition and equipment whilst Russia simply prevails because it has resources. The most resilient army always wins. The war is about dedollarisation and monopolar world. BRICS and the BRI came about much earlier. Game theory tells us we will be back onto gold currency. There is way more going on than the simple superficial analysis here. Know that the two superpower neighbours are not going to back down or lose, not against tiny corrupt Ukraine or the hegemon.
@davidcobb464
@davidcobb464 4 месяца назад
I played Avalon Hill games in my teen years. Brings back memories.
@EconLessons
@EconLessons 4 месяца назад
Avalon Hill and SPI, great games.
@paulfelkner6749
@paulfelkner6749 4 месяца назад
I just played 1776 against myself.
@MarcosElMalo2
@MarcosElMalo2 4 месяца назад
@@EconLessonsSPI was for nerds too nerdy for Avalon Hill. 😅
@davidcobb464
@davidcobb464 4 месяца назад
I played D-Day, Jutland, Tobruk, Squad Leader, Tactics II, Stalingrad, Russian Campaign. The list goes on and on. I did play 1776 a couple times. A friend had it.
@bigolboomerbelly4348
@bigolboomerbelly4348 4 месяца назад
​@@MarcosElMalo2please do more GT videos. Maybe next the strategic equilibrium. Love it.
@crissdizick9403
@crissdizick9403 4 месяца назад
Another excellent video.
@robsin7406
@robsin7406 4 месяца назад
Keep up the great work my friend and fighting the good fight 💙💛🇺🇦🤘
@Salt_of_the_Red_Earth_31
@Salt_of_the_Red_Earth_31 4 месяца назад
I haven't known where to even begin with helping others see how game theory plays into this war. Thank you for showing this. It is not easy to explain.
@spaceiliad2001
@spaceiliad2001 4 месяца назад
I am so happy i found your channel!! Another arrow in the quiver for critical thinking!! Thank you🙏
@MarcosElMalo2
@MarcosElMalo2 4 месяца назад
Mark is an old war gaming nerd! You love to see it. I’m not nearly as optimistic about the “Great Reforming” as Mark. But he’s spot on about the usefulness of the framework he’s demonstrating.
@EconLessons
@EconLessons 4 месяца назад
Yes war gamer nerd I have scores of them still.
@miguelborttora8051
@miguelborttora8051 4 месяца назад
As horrible as this war is, it is doing something amazing and it is bringing up wonderful people like you Mark
@lenagorov1986
@lenagorov1986 4 месяца назад
Thank you. As someone who studied economic game theory applications I found this logical, and fascinating in it’s simplicity :) thank you
@dustinhamabata902
@dustinhamabata902 4 месяца назад
I think the clever Ukrainian that invented the kamikaze drones must have been playing Angry Birds.
@Blake_87
@Blake_87 4 месяца назад
C'mon where do you think the word Kamikaze comes from? Suicide drones have been for while, ask the Japanese
@ArchonLicht
@ArchonLicht 4 месяца назад
@@Blake_87 I hate to ruin it for you, but Japanese Kamikaze weren't drones - these were people.
@ArchonLicht
@ArchonLicht 4 месяца назад
Angry Birds is closer to artillery than drones.
@lechatquilit
@lechatquilit 4 месяца назад
Kamikaze drones have existed for a while now -- Switchblade is just one example. What Ukrainians did was they took a normal off-the-shelf commercial drone with a camera (or a bracket for mounting a camera) and attached a home-made release mechanism. This transformed a regular drone into a small bomber. That's what the Ukrainian innovation was: transforming a regular toy that costs a couple of $100 into either a small tactical "bomber" or/and a kamikaze drone.
@Blake_87
@Blake_87 4 месяца назад
@@ArchonLicht ruin?😂 Of course I know.... but that was where the term came from
@davidbowers912
@davidbowers912 4 месяца назад
War History tells us that " He with the most Toys Wins "
@bjorntorlarsson
@bjorntorlarsson 3 месяца назад
Like the Houties vs NATO at the Red Sea? Hyssch, don't mention Afghanistan or Vietnam! What kind of history do you read?
@davidbowers912
@davidbowers912 3 месяца назад
Gingus Kahn and the Sturips on saddle, Napoleon and his God given genius in aiming Smooth barrel Cannon
@davidbowers912
@davidbowers912 3 месяца назад
​@@bjorntorlarsson, Gingus Kahn and the Sturips on the riding Pad (eventually became the Saddle, & Napoleon and his Personal God given Talent for aiming Smooth Bore Cannon
@tomasznojmiler7667
@tomasznojmiler7667 4 месяца назад
Thank you very much for this video
@ozymandias5130
@ozymandias5130 4 месяца назад
It's simple math, RF contingent in UA counts over 500k soldiers and rising, with about a million strong army still in reserve. UA army counts about 350k with zero reserves and very small mobilization potential. Russia has air dominance and artillery advantage at least 5:1. Even a child could tell how this will end. This poor guy is living in fantasy land, what a pitiful sight.
@Velsbasketcase
@Velsbasketcase 4 месяца назад
Look at the supply lines and manufacturing capacity. This dude here with his rubiks cube and silly historical quotes cracks me up.
@vlafed4690
@vlafed4690 4 месяца назад
Rubiks cube is okay for games but it is hard to estimate FAB1000 firepower compared to foot soldier
@MrCantStopTheRobot
@MrCantStopTheRobot 4 месяца назад
You vatniks really piling on, here
@bar10dr
@bar10dr 4 месяца назад
500k dead or seriously wounded soldiers you mean? Russia is currently missing 150k police officers because everyone has moved to more lucrative jobs, russia’s economy is being killed by themselves. They are now using T72 because they are running out of newer tanks to refurbish. The first thing putin did after the pretend election was to raise taxes across the board. Inflation is rising steadily while russia tries to prop up their currency with ill gotten African gold. All their civilian production is now in China, they are becoming a Chinese puppet. Meanwhile at home they are returning to Stalins ways where the people have no say and no honor, the only people not feeling it yet are those who live around Moscow or St.Petersturd, they will soon enough. Russia is done, it will happen fast.
@NistenTahiraj
@NistenTahiraj 4 месяца назад
It’s surprisingly hard a good gametheory analysis of the war today. Please create a much longer video of you making a table like this. I will watch it all.
@DavidLyle-su2vo
@DavidLyle-su2vo 4 месяца назад
For tactical conventional battle outcomes between ground forces the Lanchester Equations are simpler and just as effective for this type of modeling
@boomerhgt
@boomerhgt 4 месяца назад
Mark your videos are fabulous and very interesting your take on Geo Politics is so refreshing.
@bigolboomerbelly4348
@bigolboomerbelly4348 4 месяца назад
Please do more Game theory videos about this war. I actually had a model myself. It was essentially broken into three categories. Attacker wins, draw and defender eins which is the same setup as chess which has been modeled earlier. Since the defender consoders two out of the three a success the defender gets a coefficient of 2 and the defender gets a 1. Next two open variables one for each side that allows thenupdating of priors. Priors are based on open source databases like Oryx. Thus in an abstract world you'd need twice as many attackers as defenders to find the equilibrium. The thing got surprisingly accurate results if we go by the open source numbers well within the MOE.
@user-vu9xl2yz4s
@user-vu9xl2yz4s 4 месяца назад
As a gamer i can't deny this smart théory. Even if modern warfare has his own path, and need combined arms to steam-roll.
@EconLessons
@EconLessons 4 месяца назад
Games are often so far ahead of academic modes. Thank you.
@louisgiokas2206
@louisgiokas2206 4 месяца назад
You mention a set of technologies, Project-R and SPSS, for doing statistics. These are just tools. I did lots of statistics, primarily for simulations, in fields ranging from rom High Energy Physics to economics, using a basic programming language, FORTRAN. That was early in my career. I later used the tools you mention, among others.
@philiptilden2318
@philiptilden2318 4 месяца назад
Interesting, but I wonder how it is possible to insert more nebulous components such as morale, charisma of commanders or sense of justice or revenge etc. For instance, would be interesting to see how this would work in the battle of Gaugamela or Issus, or Austerlitz; essentially in any battle where the odds appear to be in favour of the side but which actually lost severely.
@Zorro33313
@Zorro33313 3 месяца назад
forget it. west has no idea what art of war is.
@Nohandle4me2
@Nohandle4me2 4 месяца назад
Your videos give a very interesting perspective!
@terryfox9344
@terryfox9344 4 месяца назад
Thanks, Mark! I am familiar with the system having played it for years. I still have many of the games! I believe that this is helpful in understanding the lack of progress over the last 6 months. When the Russians broke through, and could attack a Ukrainian unit form 2 or 3 sides, they advanced as they had the advantage. Without an advantage, the Russians haven't gained any significant ground. Now that the Ukrainians are receiving more ammunition, they may be presented with opportunities, where they may have the advantage.
@EconLessons
@EconLessons 4 месяца назад
See you understand. via the game system.
@Mark-s7d6l
@Mark-s7d6l 4 месяца назад
You have some good points. Like you, i think wulith pencil and paper. Also, numbers dont lie. You can weight a computer program to say what you want to hear, but columns of numbers and simple math, though slow, is hard to fudge.
@igoryurchenko9569
@igoryurchenko9569 4 месяца назад
Historically, Ukrainians have always been strong in defensive wars
@EconLessons
@EconLessons 4 месяца назад
Correct. Ukraine might have a 3x advantage or more.
@bobdhitman
@bobdhitman 4 месяца назад
Historically… long term occupations don’t work for the aggressors
@janebaker9711
@janebaker9711 4 месяца назад
I hope you're right Mark. Slava Ukraini🇺🇦
@turtle-frogs
@turtle-frogs 4 месяца назад
Russia knows this strategy and is trying to beat it by non-stop attacks, and if Russia army stalls, Ukraine takes advantage. Ps, I love the Spock quote. Thanks, Mark.
@Korrmet
@Korrmet 4 месяца назад
This video forced me to recall the second grade of university and how far ago it was. Warm saturday, exams are near, I'm looking in the window thinking about how it's freaking boring and how it's useless, full of dreams about a bright future, and didn't even realize that future may be so evil as I would recall this knowledge to understand how do the war consumes people.
@AntPictures
@AntPictures 4 месяца назад
If you use artillery attacker can take no casualties.
@kellychuba
@kellychuba 4 месяца назад
damn this one hits me in the geek spot!!
@jansvoboda4293
@jansvoboda4293 4 месяца назад
This depends on arbitrary input of firepower of different weapon system and availability of their ammunition etc. If the numbers are tuned to past battles do we have solid conversion of firepower numbers to today's realities or not? Because it is basically the variable that determines results here and de facto conflates all the strong variables that are not mentioned. So is this actually impartial analysis tool or rather a method for self-delusion where we input arbitrary data to to match our wish, e.g. the ending words of this presentation?
@stodabmedia1889
@stodabmedia1889 4 месяца назад
Again, most interesting and thought inspiring- thanks a lot.
@testboga5991
@testboga5991 4 месяца назад
Game theory is all nice and shit but it's virtually useless for predicting anything as real world games are too complex. It's just confirmation bias in hindsight, when we adjust the gains according to the outcome. Nobody knows prices and gains for Russia.
@fonyodiferenc
@fonyodiferenc 4 месяца назад
The quote below "Death to one man is a tragedy, to a million is a statistic" was actually said by Joseph Stalin, wrongly attributed to Spock.
@tomconrad7091
@tomconrad7091 4 месяца назад
Mark this is your best video ever 😮. I need your help understanding Tony Seba and Rethink X. As an economist and an entrepreneur I have been recreating cost curves for new technologies and looking at the geo-political landscape. Either my numbers are way off or we’re in for a hell of a ride in the next 3 to 5 years.
@brianpreval5602
@brianpreval5602 4 месяца назад
very informative and a new way to look at the russia/ukraine war, thanks Mark.
@gabirican4813
@gabirican4813 3 месяца назад
Thanks!
@EconLessons
@EconLessons 3 месяца назад
Thank you very much Gabir, sorry for the delayed reply been under the weather the last week. Thank you sincerely.
@gabirican4813
@gabirican4813 3 месяца назад
@@EconLessons No problem, you are Welcome!
@TheSolomonProject-kq6xz
@TheSolomonProject-kq6xz 4 месяца назад
Mark. Whats up with the editing? Are we evolving? It's cool. 👏🏽🔥💯
@EconLessons
@EconLessons 4 месяца назад
It was my worst editing more like cut and paste as I have other responsibilities, I think I need to improve, but working on it thanks.
@TheSolomonProject-kq6xz
@TheSolomonProject-kq6xz 4 месяца назад
@EconLessons you don't need to improve your editing. Your content is so good it doesn't matter whether you get fancy or not. Your content is awesome, and I'm glad that you're here on RU-vid.
@nemosthlm
@nemosthlm 4 месяца назад
One More cup of coffe before I go. Grow man grow.
@bizopca
@bizopca 3 месяца назад
In the Avalon Hill games, and others, force was based on emprics was also a theoretical ideal
@EconLessons
@EconLessons 3 месяца назад
I think AH and SPI made good estimates
@edmunddengler7687
@edmunddengler7687 4 месяца назад
Wow, for a guy who claims to be objective, he certainly throws his personal preferences into his "analysis". The most obvious is dismissing the Russian economy, which has been done since the beginning of the war, Sorry dude, Russia ain't the US, don't let your desired outcome impact an analysis.
@edmunddengler7687
@edmunddengler7687 4 месяца назад
I wonder if this demonstrates that game theory cannot be used, as too many assumptions are used as "wish fulfillment" to justify desired outcomes. Avalon Hill games are just that, games, which may be completely different than reality.
@romanzavsegolov4925
@romanzavsegolov4925 3 месяца назад
Let him believe what he wants to. It's so much fun to watch him expressing his wishful thinking on Russia from Russia.😂 The guy is delusional, biased and dogmatic, and it's funny to watch him trying to make the objective reality fit his narrative.
@flappingflight8537
@flappingflight8537 3 месяца назад
“Most of the time“ but definitely not every time:)?;(?
@tacticalsapper
@tacticalsapper 4 месяца назад
Pretty sure it's a fascinating presentation behind the overlay :D Maybe next time use a plexiglass display and later mirror it, like some online courses do it. I forgot to subscribe, although I love your content. Done and thanks!
@jonnywishbone1342
@jonnywishbone1342 4 месяца назад
My dad always spoke of the importance of math as it relates to what invariably happens in life....your work clearly defines that principle....yes your channel deserves far more views....👍
@ftboomer1
@ftboomer1 4 месяца назад
Getting closer. Correlation of forces is what you are looking for. Soviet/Russia did the foundational work on these formulas.
@surelyyoujokemeinfailure7531
@surelyyoujokemeinfailure7531 4 месяца назад
Speaking of games .. has anyone else noticed how seldom (more like never) Russians factor US material aid into their boasting about WW2 victory? I ask this because not too long ago I read the book, "Stalin's War" by Sean McMeekin. The amount of stuff we sent to the Soviets was absolutely stupendous. There are products still on the market today that we designed for the taste and battlefield nutritional needs of Soviet soldiers, such as Spam. We sent weapons, ammo, propellants, explosives, vehicles of many kinds, boats, ship, aircraft of many kinds, trucks by the thousands, oil, lubricants, fuels of different kinds. So while they may boast that it was their mass charging of enemy positions while screaming "Hurrah" that made all the difference, it remains a buried, unpatriotic, and unmentioned truth in the neo-USSR that American stuff (and sht tons of it) is what made their victory possible. Whole generations have been raised on the myth of the invincible red army. You see now how the war goes for them when limited amounts of western material aid are available to Ukraine - and what we give Ukraine presently is nothing like the amounts or variety we gave to the USSR back in the day.
@ftboomer1
@ftboomer1 4 месяца назад
@@surelyyoujokemeinfailure7531 I'm not sure about the McMeekin book but the Glantz/House book "When Titans Clashed: how the Red Army Stopped Hitler" is the seminal work on the topic.
@surelyyoujokemeinfailure7531
@surelyyoujokemeinfailure7531 4 месяца назад
@@ftboomer1 There's no doubt that Soviets did a lot of fighting. The amount of material aid is pretty substantial. They would have had a harder, longer struggle without it.
@k98killer
@k98killer 4 месяца назад
I have been wondering today what the optimal level of hierarchy is for societal and economic flourishing. Is there an optimal level of hierarchy, or are dynamism and porosity of hierarchies more important and relevant?
@EconLessons
@EconLessons 4 месяца назад
I think the more decentralized the better generally by today's standards, however, it is complex problem because obviously life is not fair and does not work like a college microeconomics text book.
@k98killer
@k98killer 4 месяца назад
@@EconLessons Jonathan Pageau has said that hierarchy requires emergence and emanation in equal measure to be maximally real and effective, but I wonder if purely emergent hierarchy is a viable option. And if so, would it be a form of emanation if the basic substrate from which hierarchy emerged was formulated to disincentivize authoritarianism? I guess it remains to be seen.
@pedrowojciechowski8669
@pedrowojciechowski8669 3 месяца назад
This man is a treasure
@6TypoS9
@6TypoS9 4 месяца назад
One thing people tend to forget: don't assume that in Russia or in the asian continent political progression leads to democracy. They tend to love single leaders over there, or at least that is the normal development. So yeah dont assume people will just consider democracy after this, most have lost fate in any sort of political reform in russia, that is my uneducated opinion btw.
@fpsmeter
@fpsmeter 3 месяца назад
This is a rather simple model, very familiar to anybody who plays strategic board games. The problem with all those models is that they can't explain anything a priori. They always work because we have a hindsight. For example, there are GREAT strategic games about WW2 but they are so great only because they were made long after WW2 and we know all the key inputs to the model. We know what unit combat strength factors should be, we know what country industrial output should be etc. But before WW2 none of such models could have predicted what would happen. For example Finland inflicting huge losses on USSR, or France falling in a few weeks inflicting almost no losses on Germany. Combat strength numbers put on units were just wishful thinking, and that's real problem - we don't know those numbers beforehand
@UnCannyValley67
@UnCannyValley67 4 месяца назад
Instead of a superimposed post it note which is meaningless to most essentially, and cut off partially from view, why not draw on a white board? I’m having trouble following, yet im interested.
@yamaneko-ex8fy
@yamaneko-ex8fy 4 месяца назад
Thank you for your work and giving courage when ones heart bleeds with the suffering Ukrainians 💙💛❤
@EconLessons
@EconLessons 4 месяца назад
There will be justice.
@marcom.88
@marcom.88 4 месяца назад
This video started with the attempt to analyze the situation objectively, you said that defenders have an advantage over attackers, which is sound, then you added an advantage for fortifications and all that brought you to the conclusion that the russians would need a 6:1 ratio to win. Seems a bit much but fair enough: that's what you model says. However later you explain that the same woudn't apply to the ukrainians because "they're very clever" and they "look on the defensive until they see a strike". Didn't they try (and fail) a counteroffensive? Also, where did your numbers go in all of that? Your video ends with your philosophical opinions about democracy, "free movement of labor and capital", and the "purpose of every human being". Idk man, this doesn't seem like a serious analysis.
@Looseleafteas
@Looseleafteas 2 месяца назад
Thanks
@EconLessons
@EconLessons 2 месяца назад
Dear LooseleafTeas thank you very much.
@neurocaballero
@neurocaballero 4 месяца назад
Great Analysis. You are right, at the end it is a Nato vs RUS war economy battle. Kiev is just caught in the middle.
@Misiulo
@Misiulo 4 месяца назад
I wouldn't overestimate mountains. While durring WW1 the Alps seem to have actually allowed Italians to repel the Austro-Hungarian army, during WW2 the Carpathians didn't stop the Soviets from plowing right into Romania and Hunagry like knife through butter.
@saimbhat6243
@saimbhat6243 4 месяца назад
Game theory is subjective and doesn't exactly copy non-materialistic behavior. Lol. If the russian regime, just focused on material gains, then it might work, as it sometimes works in economics.
@johnwalsh4857
@johnwalsh4857 4 месяца назад
hahah Im still a big board wargame fan and player to this day, first started playing board wargames in 1980 with my first played games being Bundeswehr and Titan strike by SPI. Still continue to play and collect board wargames to this day. and I have even graduated to playtesting board wargames for Decision games board wargame magazine like strategy & tactics, modern war and world at war and various independent board wargame designers like Ben Madison, heck even wrote historical articles for those magzines and reviews on paper wars.as well as got a board wargame called Storm over Taierzhuang 1938 published for Against the Odds magazne.
@EconLessons
@EconLessons 4 месяца назад
SPI ruled in terms of games.
@johnwalsh4857
@johnwalsh4857 4 месяца назад
@@EconLessons loved SPI however the majority of my games were from Avalon Hill. and yah SPI was massive but It was hard to get them outside the USA, I used to live in Manila , Philippines in the 70s to the early 90s and got my board wargames from Japan, Hong Kong and locally and at the time Avalon Hill was jsut all over the place like you can buy them in Hong Kong and Japnaese department stores while SPI games were rare. My first board wargame that I collected was Samurai from Avalon hill bought from a Daimaru dept store in Osaka Japan. The first hex CRT game I collected was Operation Konrad designed by Perry Moore published by Close Simulations bought from a Hong Kong book store in Kowloon back in 85.
@hififlipper
@hififlipper 4 месяца назад
Your videos are a delight. Thanks for having us.
@promo7619
@promo7619 4 месяца назад
Thanks for the videos you make. You bring refreshing new perspectives to solving things. And so true, the actions of all human beings in the human race have, in the big picture, a purpose in this universe.
@TheFrewah
@TheFrewah 4 месяца назад
Yes, old school is best. You have to focus on what matters and you can’t prerend you have a good model by using effects like sound and sleak graphics. I have never heard about that company, I need to check it out. Ideally, I think you should be able to save the framework and inputs as a text or excel file if that makes sense. Then you can tweak or extend the model if you find something wanting. I like it when thingd are made ”by hand” which I think means that Excel is Ok because it doesn’t hide anything
@pj_ytmt-123
@pj_ytmt-123 4 месяца назад
Operation Iraqi Freedom, 2003: According to this game theory, the iraqi forces had overwhelming odds in their favour. *crickets*
@EconLessons
@EconLessons 4 месяца назад
You have to calculate attack strength. If you have 1000 units with an attack of 1 versus 10 units with an attack of 1000 then the odds are different.
@pj_ytmt-123
@pj_ytmt-123 4 месяца назад
@@EconLessons So, AK47 is 1 power whereas M16 is 1000 power? Seems kind of arbitrary!
@johnwalsh4857
@johnwalsh4857 4 месяца назад
I notced the Russians are the ones constantly attacking yes, its in their doctrine, the best defence is the best offense, that is how their army was bult, the Russian army of 2024 is practically still the Soviet army of the cold war. while the Ukrainian army started out this war having a hybrid Russian and NATO combat doctrine and throughout the war has been gradually shifting to the NATO combat doctrine. While the Ukrainian army is not yet a fully NATO style army, it is very NATO like in doctrine and equipment, practically a lot of their combat equipment are NATO weapons.
@EconLessons
@EconLessons 4 месяца назад
But they issue is they do it with WWII style ideas.
@johnwalsh4857
@johnwalsh4857 4 месяца назад
@@EconLessons Yep and to add the Soviet army doctrinally of the cold war is not much different than that of WW2 Soviet army. The Russians since end of WW2 played up the great patriotic war as like a holy war, they constantly glorified it for the past 80 years. and Putin used this to his ends. and these WW2 style ideas will be a disaster to Russia economically , militarily and demographically: Economically despite the Russian GDP growing , its all gov spending geared to prosecuting the war in Ukraine. This is a disaster to the Russian economy in the long run. in fact analysts have predicted that by mid to late 2025 , the Russian economy will start to degrade, and when that happens , hyperinflation and economic depression is just around the corner and there are already signs that the Russian economy is buckling hard under the weight of the costs to support this war which is costing Russia 400 mil to 1 billion USD a day. The appointment of Budanov to replace shoigu as defense minister, Budanov is a economist who believes in centralizing the Russian economy, yep this moron is a big espouser on returning the Russian economy back to teh Soviet economy. Disaster. Also Budanov said he would cut costs and the budget of the Russian army which signals the Russian economy is in trouble. Military: Yep the war has cost the Russians 500K casualties and several thousand kaput tanks and APCs in 2 years and 3 months of war. and the war is still a bloody stalemate despite the Russians having 10X the GDP and military of Ukraine and 5X the population of Ukraine. Russians hold around 20 percent of Ukraine and cant really seem to expand from that. The current Kharkov offensive is turning out to be a disaster for the Russians with the Russians losing 1K casualties a day and the Russian commanding general of this offensive being General Lapin, who was fired in late 2022 for being the commander of Russian forces in Eastern Ukraine after the Ukrainian forces literally collapsed a bunch of Russian divisions under his command and took back a large chunk of Ukrainian territory. Yep they took back and reinstated a Russian moron general who might soon fall from a window if the latest Kharkov offensive turns out to be a disaster. Also as stated earlier Budanov the latest ministry of defense appointee told the Russian Duma during his inaguration that he intends to do budget cuts for the Russian army LOL. DISASTER. Shoigu was already throwing massive amoutns of weapons and money at the war but the Russian army was still failing now budget cuts hahahaahh Demographics: Well the war has costs lots of casualties for teh Russians and possibly 1 million casualties after the war is over and Russian population is actually in decline before the war with some of the worst life expectancies in Europe where the average Russian male has a life expectancy of 65 years. The European average is 80 years. This war will make things worse. and even much more worse a possible bloody civil war after the war is over.
@CCRoselle
@CCRoselle 4 месяца назад
@@johnwalsh4857 Russia’s economy has been stagnant for the last 30 years,USA GDP 500%, and China’s has grown over 600% in that time, And Russia’s successful university system ran out of funds about 30 years ago, and the same for their hospital system. Today China has a higher percentage of toilets! Energy sales were doing well. Where did all the money go? Clearly not to the military?
@johnwalsh4857
@johnwalsh4857 4 месяца назад
@@CCRoselle now its worse. Only the show piece cities of Moscow and St. Petersburg look good the rest blehhh
@lewisdoherty7621
@lewisdoherty7621 4 месяца назад
Other variables include the training and competence of troops, their morale and provisioning of which I believe the Ukrainian troops have advantages. These are more difficult to convert into numbers. The Russian troops are provided with minimal training, they appear to be pulled from the dregs of society, many don't want to be there and there are numerous complaints about the failure to provide them food, water and munitions. There are also other things. The Russians don't trust their troops, so they hold them together. This makes them easy to target to take out masses of personnel. The Ukrainians are spread out, because they can be trusted.
@EconLessons
@EconLessons 4 месяца назад
Yes in the game systems things like moral were accounted for on a tactical level but strategic play would factor it into an attack or defense number reduction or addition.
@bigman23DOTS
@bigman23DOTS 4 месяца назад
Numbers don’t lie I agree….trouble is these numbers are humans and it doesn’t touch on the loss off humanity itself
@MarcosElMalo2
@MarcosElMalo2 4 месяца назад
Not really Mark’s fault. You probably want to talk with Vladimir Putin about the loss of human life.
@kirstenberg4869
@kirstenberg4869 4 месяца назад
Yes, you are very good at explaning difficult things and a very kind person who cares about making the world a better place 😀
@smooth7689
@smooth7689 4 месяца назад
Prior to Montgomery beating Rommel at the Battle of Alamein, Montgomery fell out with Churchill for almost constant demands of armaments. I can’t remember exactly the numerical advantage Montgomery had, and it’s worth noting that Rommel’s supply lines were also being hit, but it was something in the order of 6 to 1.
@saysimonsaid1576
@saysimonsaid1576 3 месяца назад
Wait... I thought the quote was, "The best defense is a good offense." Not the other way round.
@zloiSorc
@zloiSorc 3 месяца назад
wow, very interesting thank you
@nemosthlm
@nemosthlm 4 месяца назад
Tack!
@EconLessons
@EconLessons 4 месяца назад
Thank you sincerely Nemo! This does help and yes I think Sweden is super.
@bennie_pie
@bennie_pie 4 месяца назад
Thank you for this perspective, woule love to see current data in one of these models to see how it measures up.....fog of war can make getting accurate/equivalent data on troop numbers/comparable levels of fire power tricky. Maybe NASA FiRMS data would be useful. Also, there is some incredible osint work by a chap called Andrew Perpetetua and his team who have been geolocating/cataloguing/reporitng daily on the Ukrainian and Russian equipment losses - i wonder if this data could be be used to imply fire power based on what has been destroyed / lost. Woulr love to see some more videos about this! Thank-you for making it!
@bjorntorlarsson
@bjorntorlarsson 3 месяца назад
But this is an attrition war. The purpose of war is to destroy the enemy's military forces. If the defender retreats, that is a plus for the defender, not for the attacker who then has to advance across minefields away from homeland logistics and air defences. The reason why Russia won this war so one-sidedly was because the Ukrainians refused to retreat and instead let themselves be destroyed where it was most favourable for Russia.
@bjorntorlarsson
@bjorntorlarsson 3 месяца назад
Attrition warfare is actually much more suitable for quantitative models than what maneuver warfare is. The Russian military doctrine contains attrition calculations, predicting the rate of enemy losses over time given firepower and protection circumstances. General Vauban pioneered and perfected this (geometric, he would say) art for siege warfare in the late 17th century, look him up! In this war, never look at the map! It is irrelevant beyond local tactics. The only thing that matters strategically is the rate of losses and production of forces.
@ukrainiansubarer7767
@ukrainiansubarer7767 4 месяца назад
I would advise you to address your consideration to General Staff directly or any responsible person, not just for RU-vid geeks.
@louisgiokas2206
@louisgiokas2206 4 месяца назад
Actually, I think it was Stalin said that first, not Spock.
@EconLessons
@EconLessons 4 месяца назад
Maybe
@HT-ww3zg
@HT-ww3zg 4 месяца назад
In college my buddies and I played a Hex board game called PanzerBlitz, by Avalon Hill. I'm guessing it's along the same lines as the ones you played.
@EconLessons
@EconLessons 4 месяца назад
Yes same type of games
@WilliamAshleyOnline
@WilliamAshleyOnline 4 месяца назад
The problem with these styles of analysis is that they don't properly equate the role of Artillery, airsupport, drones, armor etc... as its not really about the number of people it is about the power of the force - likewise when defending in this war what can matter more is about how hard the hardpoints are how deep they are, and if you can surive a 1500 lb bomb or thermobaric flamethrower attack etc.. Its not about the number of troops all the troops are doing is securing positions, most of the attacks are occuring with artillery or heavy weapons. Infantry hasn't been very effective in fighting in this war. This idea of army men running around is a very small part of the war, and its more about logistics and supply of heavy weapon systems and the ability to hide from them in basements and in fortifications. Further a major element of attrtional war is the exhaustion of forces through depleting experienced soldiers with casualties -- this means that new forces with much less combat capability can not take advantage of tactics - a shortage of smart officers also leads solidiers to bad points such as zones where they will be attrited. There are many elements that can be used to offset force numbers. However infantry really isn't much of a spearhead as it once was, it is a very badly force to absorb heavy weapons attacks in this war and to slow down the advance of heavy weapons and some other roles. The spearhead really isn't infantry in this role it is joint forces largely depenant on tanks/apcs artillery etc.. on the reverse trenches, mindfields fortifications and natural barriers. Russia has half a million troops in reserve.. and they are adding 250,000 new soldiers every year to the combat area.
@zscriptwriter
@zscriptwriter 4 месяца назад
Thank you for caring Mark. You seem to be hoping for the best, Let’s pray you are correct.
@EconLessons
@EconLessons 3 месяца назад
Stay positive and you will see.
@smooth7689
@smooth7689 4 месяца назад
This is very interesting
@sakelaine2953
@sakelaine2953 4 месяца назад
You are killin' it with that jacket and hair
@SuezWSuezW
@SuezWSuezW 4 месяца назад
The lesson in war gaming is very interesting, thank you! (Spock may have said that but Stalin did say "The death of one man is a tragedy. The death of millions is a statistic.")
@tarasmanolov
@tarasmanolov 4 месяца назад
Thank you!
@keithwollenberg5237
@keithwollenberg5237 4 месяца назад
I was more of an Avalon Hill man, myself, but the analysis is the same.
@Surfer-727
@Surfer-727 4 месяца назад
Thanks for the great video Mark. The prediction markets is what the CIA would use to predict the futue, though for some reason I only see political prediction markets on the internet anymore.
@hendrikvanleeuwen9110
@hendrikvanleeuwen9110 4 месяца назад
No doubt the game mechanics is accurate- in showing the bias of the inputs. Meanwhile, Russia has more troops, more ammo, shorter supply lines (ironically), and is running on volunteers. Ukraine on the other hand is operating on intermittent supplies, is unable to fill its ranks without dropping standards and is typically operating at 40% unit strength, mone of which is taken into account. GIGO, as they say.
@EconLessons
@EconLessons 4 месяца назад
Complexities are added in the game play such as this. But the bottom line is the results table shows Russia needs a lot more than what they are fielding.
@wordscapes5690
@wordscapes5690 4 месяца назад
Interesting. Thank you. Nice to be given a bit of hope. Here in TW we await our own “treatment” from our own monster next door.
@hcellix
@hcellix 4 месяца назад
I really like your approach to a difficult war. You have given me hope that America won't delay weapons anymore. Because of Mike Johnson's delay , let's say Trump's delay and then gave Mike the OK to release . Strictly political. I hope you will expand in the future to other interests that are so important. I have been reading or watch video if every 300 years on average a state will fall especially if the wealth goes to the elite and just a few at the top that makes decisions and making mistakes become ever more dangerous because it can lead to oppression. I have been trying to understand the lack of critical thinking skills. Many of the MAGA groups have less education, which can result in lower wages and lifestyle. I think religion is being used as a tool against Democracy. I myself have an EE degree and did teaching at a university to MD Residents about Radiation Physics. I can't do your stuff. Mind blowing though I have seen that game theory several times in the past. It can be used in cellular division if I understand correctly. OK, I will stop. I just noticed by your comments that we had a few similarities, and I like people who call it like they see it. I can also tell you that you have a code of ethics. I will be watching more and just subscribed, but I will check again. Take care. Cliff
@EconLessons
@EconLessons 4 месяца назад
Lets try to free this 300 Billion of Putin's money for a good use.
@johnwalsh4857
@johnwalsh4857 4 месяца назад
There are already a bunch of board wargames published on the current war In Ukraine and the 2014 Ukraine war. and for future reference also a bunch of wargames on a future Russian civil war.
@michaelharings9913
@michaelharings9913 4 месяца назад
I grew up playing those hex-grid war games. One I remember, World War II, from England to Russia, took up a whole ping-pong table (and maybe a card table on the side). War as a matter of logistics is more evident in that type of board game. Morale is also very important--I remember one game where a leader like Julius Caesar increased local battle odds. Anders Nielsen, from Denmark, a military commentator, also speaks of "will" as an important factor. Who will persevere more, and when through politics, the people will overthrow Putin, as a possible example, because they've had enough suffering and see no positive outcome with the current regime. My teacher says, "It is a matter of the *greatest* present-time urgency that the prevailing global mood of political separatism, end-game competitiveness, and endlessly multiplied divisiveness be immediately and thoroughly and universally and permanently relinquished--such that the entire world-population of humankind becomes universally intelligent with the heart-positive mind of cooperation and tolerance." --from the essay: C+T=P: Formula For World Peace, from Not-Two *Is* Peace, The Ordinary People's Way of Global Cooperative Order, by the World-Friend, Adi Da
@MS-ii1sv
@MS-ii1sv 4 месяца назад
Good plan. Get absolutely everyone to agree on absolutely everything across the whole planet. Let's use western democracy, a system built entirely on dividing populations against themselves, to achieve this.
@Arvy1987
@Arvy1987 4 месяца назад
Greetings from Russia 🇷🇺 Have a great day 👍👍 Слава России!!
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