Ukraine War Update NEWS (20240510c): Geopolitical News (EDIT: Read 1st comment) 

CORRECTION: RUSSIA ARE NOT INTO UKRAINE AS REPORTED BY DEEP STATE. TENDAR HAS CORRECTED DEEP STATE: We have now better geolocation of the attempted Russian incursion and it appears that Deep State was wrong. The Russian armor was destroyed even before it crossed the border to Ukraine. The exact coordinates are: 50°17'36.90"N, 36°31'43.17"E That's just outside Ukraine and inside the Belgorod Region. Based on that information I'm correcting the map. Russia has not penetrated the perimeter of Ukraine at Pyl'ne and lost 5 vehicles. ISW STATES: Russian forces have begun the first stage of an operation in Kharkiv Oblast that advances multiple Russian objectives. Russian forces likely will not seize Kharkiv City. 🧵(1/3) Available evidence indicates that the initial Russian attacks are reconnaissance in force and not yet a major drive to seize Kharkiv City. This operation seeks to advance the following Russian objectives: 1⃣ Fix Ukrainian forces across the theater to thin Ukrainian forces out along the 600-mile frontline and create opportunities, specifically in Donetsk Oblast. 2⃣ Draw Ukrainian forces towards Vovchansk to facilitate Russia’s ongoing efforts to seize Kupyansk, which has stalled in the past six months. 3⃣ Create a “demilitarized” or “sanitary” buffer zone in Ukraine as the Kremlin has explicitly sought since early 2024. 4⃣ Instill panic in Ukraine. 5⃣ The operation also can set conditions for a larger future offensive operation on Kharkiv City. Russian forces likely will not seize Kharkiv City. Open-source information indicates that Russian forces likely have roughly 50,000 troops in Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk oblasts - a force insufficient to seize Kharkiv City. The current geographic extent of the reported attacks on the morning of 10 MAY from Vovchansk to Hoptivka is notably narrow and centered on the northeast of Kharkiv. If the Russian command intended to seize Kharkiv City, then Russian forces would have likely also attacked to the west and northwest of Kharkiv City as well. Russia is leveraging Russian airspace as a sanctuary to strike Kharkiv Oblast. Russia’s use of Russian airspace for these attacks highlights the urgent need for the US to provide more long-range air defense assets and to allow the Ukrainians to use them to intercept Russian aircraft in Russian airspace. Ukraine would be better able to defend Kharkiv Oblast if Ukrainian air defenders could intercept Russian aircraft in Russian airspace before they drop their glide bombs. ISW will provide additional updates on the situation in Kharkiv Oblast in this evening's campaign assessment.

Mr. Pierce, this is the US Army veteran and subscriber whose comment you discussed today. THANK YOU!! I still would have followed your program had you ignored or not fairly responded to my comment, but I certainly appreciate that you did. I will concede that actions of Republicans in Congress have made me think twice about my political allegiances. I would rather support lefty loonies than fascists, so we can agree on that point. May the forces that bond us together in the pursuit of freedom be greater than those that would pull us apart. Cheers to you sir, and I will continue to follow the show.

One of my biggest gripes is when a person disagrees with someone else and says something similar to "If you have not read enough to [agree with my own personal opinion], you know nothing" about X. Next to that is when people constantly confuse fact with opinion--also in this case. Drives me up the wall.

i find your showing 'your working out' ( like one does in a school exam ) very laudable i find it comforting. Slava Ukraine and NATO Cheers JMSP

I visited Moldova last year. It was the poorest (now 2nd poorest) and least visited by tourists than any other European country. I didnt know what to expect but I left feeling my trip had been too short and the people lovely. The economy is struggling and its scruffy in places but Chisinau has charm great food, beautiful countryside and a bonkers train to bucharest (eurovision) which was truly memorable. It has a train station which was quite something...will one day go back...not to mention they have the biggest wine cellar in the world....cant fault them really! So there ya go...a different side to Moldova! Cheers 🍷

As an American I am going to wade into some contentious and politically divisive subjects that are taking place in Europe at the moment. Eurovision 2024! I watched Ukraine’s entry this year and was blown away. “Theresa and Maria” is a powerful anthem to the strength and perseverance of the Ukrainian woman. I would recommend watching the actual music video first because it gives you the translated lyrics, then see the description and it explains the powerful woman in the video. And finally I would recommend watching the semifinal performance. Jerry Heil is phenomenal. Glory to Ukraine! I believe the final takes place Tomorrow.

Hey JP and team. Thanks for the important work as always JP. Happy weekend to all.🍻

Hey JP, Ryan McBeth has a brilliant short about the validation of Russian propaganda using the west: "The four steps to Russian Propaganda". It is brilliant and hilarious.

I want to know more about the protests in Georgia. It seems to me that Russia might not have the bandwidth to help deal with the protesters, so the protesters might win and like Ukraine, chase Putin’s puppets out of their country.

Merkel was not left, and she talked green - but did not do much there. Instead she let the solar cell and the windmill industry go down the drain as she by her actions favored the classical fossil energy production branches - while talking about how green Germany has become. She's conservative. And she did all the things the veteran described. The german government NOW is left-green with liberals mixed in. Fun Fact: The party that most strongly supports Ukraine are the Greens in Germany, that makes them different from other green movements. They were a rather fundamentalist peace party, but had to deal with the Yugoslavia civil war in the 90ies, and grew responsible. A friend of mine, a conservative, made the statement that the green will in the end sit in the tank themselves, he called them the 'olive-green'. My answer was: She/he who sits in the tank decides if there will be shooting, when there will be shooting and who will be shot at. I call that 'Responsibility'. He did not have a reply to that ...

Greetings JP 👍😊

I think you are correct about all the questions from the community! Thanks for another good video!

Hungary.... sigh... Take care team!

Slava Ukraini, from Denmark.

Jonathan and team I just broke a framed glass door trying on a shoe. No cuts or anything and insured, but is still feel like an idiot.

I've been around long enough that I get why recapping information that has already been gone over is necessary throughout media, whether a good fantasy book series or an informative report recapping will and should happen. Not just for new viewers but through repetition we can hammer these truths into place to firmly entrench them, and in an age when lies seem to be winning the day people like us who seek to be champions of the truth should not shirk away from using these tools that are proven to work because of how annoyed we can get at repeating ourselves ad nauseam or hearing something true repeated ad nauseam.

Trump told European countries to all spend at least 2% 5 years ago. He also told them to get off Russian oil and gas. They laughed

D-Day minus 8 . After Putin returns from China, will this offensive begin.

You the best as always 👍💙🇸🇪❤️🇺🇦💛

Brilliant video thank you for all that you do keep up with the great news

Well that made my heart skip a beat Johnny.

Calling Merkel "Green" is laughable; Merkel was a member of the CDU, and the Green Party wasn't even in the coalition during her tenure. If someone is suggesting that the CDU is akin to the Greens, that's even more absurd. The Green Party was not part of the federal government coalitions she led. The Greens were in opposition at the federal level during Merkel's tenure. And her policies where far from green... 2005-2009 (Grand Coalition): Merkel's first term was under a grand coalition between the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), its Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU), and the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD). 2009-2013: In her second term, Merkel led a coalition between the CDU/CSU and the Free Democratic Party (FDP). 2013-2017 (Grand Coalition): Merkel's third term saw a return to a grand coalition with the CDU/CSU and the SPD. 2017-2021 (Grand Coalition): Her fourth and final term also featured a grand coalition between the CDU/CSU and the SPD.

Angela Merkel was not green, and she is a Christian Democrat center right leader. Schröder was socialdemocrat, the German economic politics with Russia is way older. German Energiewende is really not that green and it backfired with the addiction to Russian fossil energy.

25:00 don't see your straight thinking anywhere else. It's gold. And so was the current Trump election fraud case - It's not just "personality". it is showing America whom they entrusted their country to. And the funniest lawyer story ever. Some time ago I did a video for my Law Society's litigation skills course demonstrating what not to do. But Trumps lawyers eclipsed it by miles!

I don't understand how Russia could surprise Ukraine in an attack on Kharkiv. Even a child could see it coming for months now.

The hush mney case there is actually no law brocken, even all the scholars are saying that from both sides. They still so far from the case in court can not find a law that he has broken.

Russia will need assistance after the break-up, or better to say the parts will.

Main reason i tune in is to get the correct pronuncation of Ukranian place names :}

Hi Johnathan, I don't know if you've every watched any Ryan McBeth videos. His RU-vid channel is just his name Ryan McBeth. But he just put out a video today about mistakes he made when starting his channel as a full time job. It might be worth a watch, it could help you expand your channel. It can't hurt to listen. Just thought I'd give you the heads up, because I have heard you sounding frustrated because you channel is not growing as fast as you would like

China want Vladivostok back , russia helpless to defend it.

33:50 - The fear concerning a possible breakup of the Russian Federation is directly related to fears of nuclear proliferation and by extension geopolitical stability and predictability. The number of "nuclear states" would essentially quintuple, and none would be willing to give them up having witnessed what has happened to Ukraine.

If Trump was a politician in Sweden, well he would never get that far, either he would be in jail or the politic party would never let him in, its scary to see how indifferent the American people has become when it comes to who should run the country 😳

03:45 - A buffer zone? Unlikely. A buffer zone will eventually need a buffer zone, ad infinitum ... and Ukraine can easily bypass said buffer zone with aerial drones, missiles etc.

Read Battle Ready by Tom Clancy and Marine Corps General Tony Zinni . ( Philadelphia born ) He talks about the US effort to stand up a free state in Russia after the fall of communism. Really great book........

Best rant of the year

The F-22 lost its primary role -- countering the USSR -- and then lost out due to its flawed air supply (for the pilots) -- and it went wildly over-budget, to boot. Now a huge amount of F-22 spending is totally bogus. It was deemed an assured program, so the Pentagon shifted its enormous black budget onto its back. You are a Brit, so I don't expect you to know that 60 Minutes ran a Prime Time segment revealing to the public a Big Secret. The pilots were blacking out, from time-to-time, because the F-22 failed to provide sufficient oxygen. (!!!) One pilot died from this. The entire fleet was grounded because of this publicity. The Pentagon had already lost faith in it. THIS is why the F-22 was cancelled. The USAF solved the problem -- a decade ago -- which is why it's still flying in front line service. ( It was a simple chemistry problem.) Lately, the F-22 has been up-graded to replace the rushed fix back then. I'll bet that the F-22 will be in front line service until 2040.

Absolutely dedicated to your channel for news updates and thoughtful digressions and analysis. Take a leaf from jake broe though. Bit more concise. Slow down plz!

31:00 - Every single NATO-country drastically reduced their military spending (as a percentage of GDP) between 1990 and 2000 (after the end of the Cold War). But you're correct in pointing out that any rise that has happened since seem to coincide with relational conflicts or "imminent threat" scenarios. The US is a special case, but the first statement holds true for them as well.

I feel like the universe is talking to me at this point. Figured I’d circle back for the first time in a couple weeks since I generally love the channel. Laughing at / hand waving comments like “your kind” while simultaneously spreading flippant rhetoric like “Trump cult” makes it clear right away that professional/ reasonable coverage of him / his voters / his policies/ American politics still isn’t on the table. It’s such a shame to see Ukraine supporters turned away over such petty partisan politics. I guess I’ll be extending my break from following the genocide. Trying to find geo-strategic coverage of it and the broader world war with China is so difficult these days! 😢 Heroyam slava.

There seems to be a fundamental difference that's unique to Russia regarding nuclear threats. North Korea has been making such threats, as a nuclear power, for years, and has been firing nuclear-capable ballistic missiles directly over other nations. Some of those missiles we now know do indeed have the range & capability to reach the continental United States and Europe. Yet, demands associated with such threats are never met or even entertained, and aside from air raid sirens in South Korea & Japan when missile launches are tracking close enough to or through their airspace, threats from North Korea never raise any pulses if they're even acknowledged at all. Iran only needs to finish fully refining its nuclear fissile material, which we know it has in tremendous amounts & which it needs less than 2 weeks to finish refining, before loading it into warheads atop their ballistic missiles. Several such ballistic missiles, we all seem to have forgotten or have chosen to ignore, did in fact manage to land in Israel, meaning Iran is indeed capable of striking Israel with nuclear weapons inside of 2 weeks from such time as they might decide to do so. So, why do we give Russia, and apparently only Russia, such tremendous leeway, and why is it that we allow Ukraine, but not South Korea, Japan or Israel, to suffer the consequences of that choice?

Yes, Merkels policy was green because Germany was transitioning from coal to natural gas. That is a significant improvement for the environment.

20:20 chinese exports to Russia fall - nothing to do with the exchange rate, and Russian poverty?

I suspect that the Kharkiv offensive is most likely a semi-offensive designed to tie down Ukrainian troops. The Russians don't have the armored vehicles+modern tanks for a whole front attack. A massive Russian offensive could provide the Ukrakians the ability inflict high losses. Another Avdiivka type loss of military equipment could stop the Russians until the rainy season.

That commenter ISN'T American. I'd put money on it. The language they used repeatedly said 'western' and 'the west', whilst not once referring to Russia as 'the east'. Such use of language leads me to think they're speaking from somewhere in the east.

Olesnder is completely wrong. The chinese do not like chaos. The want order. Do not like “free market” as it is inpredictable, but would like the economic advantages og the freemarket innovation and valuecreation. Bob rødsten, Denmark. Many years expat in China

We gave russia better help the past few months than we gave ukraine we can only blame ourselves 🇺🇦

👋

You just engaged with a Russian troll in your stream. One of the brighter ones for sure but….

Jonathan, there are too many articulate trolls out there who think they have become smart :)

25:35 - Unprecedented in US politics - at least at the scale demonstrated. NOT unprecedented if you look to other countries that the US is loath to compare itself to.

22:25 - Ostpolitik was introduced and implemented by Willy Brandt and then continued by Andrea Merkel along the same lines of rapprochement and interdependence. But this same policy, although somewhat controversial, is built upon the same basic principles that gave birth to the ECSC that thru many iterations became the EU. Of course, everyone may have their own opinion as to what will lead to lasting stability, order, cooperation and predictability combined with mutual respect for one another's culture and aspirations. As to the allegations concerning the validity of the Trump-trials, I'll refrain from commenting.

If people don't like what they are watching, just turn it off.

ya no1

31:48 , 37:00 sorry, which ex-soviet state has exported nukes and offered them for sale? Apart from Putin, and Belarus at his direction? All the states signed treaties between them to become nuclear free. All of them except Russia honoured those treaties. See my hidden comments (sort by newest). All except Russia acceded to the non-proliferation treaty.

It is a pity congress didn’t pursue the impeachment on Trump and left it to the justice system.

The F-22 was a victim of the shift from the Cold War into counter insurgent warfare. It’s just what the US was doing at the time and seemed to be the foreseeable future.

The main problem this American chap seems to have is that he's likely to be in an information bubble. Perhaps you can suggest that he watch some information from the Meidas Touch for balance. I often watch the Fox network for balance, but then I realise why so many Americans support Trump, because they are being lied to.

JP I’m an Aussie and while I do agree with the way you feel about trump as in I despise the man also and believe he’s morally bankrupt and is only ever looking out for himself, however I do believe a lot of the charges against him are ridiculous and have set a bad precedent. Also I do agree with the person in the comment that you do quite often let your very lefty views cloud your judgement and prevent you from ever criticising blatant flaws in liberal politics

After all the hesitation and bullshit with helping ukraine it isn't surprising china will take liberties with the sovereignty of other countries

As Mitt Romney a Republican stated " You do Not Pay someone $130,000. Dollars to Not have Sex " 😀