At the end, Bart brings up a really good point about QQ blocking KQ. Neither he nor the caller accounted for that while considering a river bet, though.
I've found that most players will be so frustrated with getting counterfeited that they will fold out of frustration without thinking the hand through. Kudos to the caller for taking advantage of that.
I like the river bet. If villain doesn't have an A, then this looks a lot like an A from hero who is trying to get value from a K or QQ. I was thinking exactly the same. It's a great price on a bluff that looks really strong.
For as much as blockers en vogue right now, even if Bart doesn't pay them as much credence as many others, I'm still surprised that he didn't ask about the suits of the Queens, because it is actually a factor here, especially considering that the villain is friends with the hero with lots of history so presumably, he also studies poker on a deeper level, or at least deep enough to understand taking blockers into consideration. The key here is whether or not the villain has the Queen of Diamonds. If he does, that eliminates KQdd as one of the hero's potential hands which contain a Queen. And KQdd is the most likely hand with a king that he would play this way, except for maybe AK, although I don't think that AK checks back the turn too much, although it is a possibility as AK is blocking most of the villains value hands at that point, so hero could either be inducing a bluff or trying to allow the villain to catch up on the river. And obviously with their history, there is leveling going on here which is too difficult for us to add onto our read here. We'd need to know how their last 20 hands they played together went, plus the entirety of their history and how their play versus one another has changed, especially when compared to how they play versus other opponents in identical or very similar situations.
It doesn't matter if he had Q diamonds on the river because hero could never 100% know ahead of time. I recon villian is almost never (like 99.9%) 4betting KQs preflop. On the flip side, I doubt hero is 3betting villain with KQs preflop also. If villain has AK then a line of bet, bet, bet or check, bet, bet makes sense. Bet, check, check is almost never going to be AK. This line looses too much potential value. I could see hero having some Ax trapping this way. AK and some AQs that doesn't fold preflop. Hero made a good read.
@@augustgreig9420 KQ diamonds is one hand. I think Bart's point about the small flop bets getting calls from pairs is much more relevant. A pocket pair is 6 combos. Villain should be calling with calling with any QQ with his line. He just didn't think hero was capable of a bluff in this spot. Hero gave up some exploit by showing as now villain will be defending more.
@@AT-bw4cmYes, but my point is, the villain could have logically put the hero on KQdd on the flop when he called such a small bet bet because he was getting the correct odds to do so. If he was holding the Queen of Diamonds, then this is something that he could rule out immediately and may make him more likely to call. My only point here is that I think it's an important point of interest to know the suits of his Queens so we can better understand his thought process, especially on the river, seeing as how the most likely hand he could have which contains a king may in fact have been ruled out immediately.
I'm trying to figure out whether or not I like this, Assuming villain has all 6 combos of QQ and never hero calls the but will always call with a K+ this play should be profitable unless villain has 16 combos of K+ that check turn and check river. I don't think villain's checking range is going to be that well protected so I can definitely see it, and villain check jamming as a bluff would be an incredibly rare play. As dumb as this sounded to me originally I can buy hero having taken the correct line. Plus villain is his friend so I feel like it is +300% fun/bragging rights value when it works.
V could bet a king pretty freely - I feel like it's super unlikely hero is flatting flop, checking back turn with an A and how many As does he really have after 3 betting an UTG open and flatting the 4 bet with 4 Aces and Kings accounted for? Sometimes a king will fold, sometimes you'll get heroed by a Q.
I think hero gets to the river with some Ax. I don’t think, in hero’s spot, I’m raising with AQ or AK on the flop. And even on the turn, with AK you have the nuts and 0 possibility of being outdrawn. Why not let QJdd try and hit a flush? You could maybe bet AQ, but not great if you’re only getting called by AK or KK. There’s only a 2/3 pot sized bet left so you can still jam the river anyway, no need to build the pot on the flop or turn.
I really don't like how villain plays the hand. I love that Cbet, probably 150 will be perfect and just shoves the turn on King. This moves will give tremendous pressure to hero because hero have to think twice to call me with Trips Ace because my 4 bet range preflop definitely have AK or Kings. I also don't like the river fold with QQ because why would hero check back if he have the Ace OTT? The story just doesn't add up when hero bets the river and I block KQs.
Guy on the call doesn’t know Ohio at all. Bart asks for cities with in an hour of Cleveland and he gave him Toledo and Columbus. Neither of them are even close to an hour away.
Downbet on flop then check turn smells like fear of Ax or Kx. I like hero's play here with JJ. Really just a matter of having superior position. What pocket pairs can call here, as played? Hero's line looks like Ax. Villain's doesn't.
If we don’t have an A or K in our hand there’s 50 unknown cards. It’s actually easier to work out the chance of not getting an A or K on the flop…for the first card there’s a 42/50 chance, for the second card 41/49 and for the third 40/48. Multiplying those together give 58.6% chance of no A/K. So the chance of at least one is 41.4%.
Never try to die by assuming you know that one hand bc even Ivey and Doyle were wrong more often than right. Im not going to tell you what to use but its easy to figure out.
NEW TERM FOR CRUSH LIVE: CRYING CHECK!!!!...when a contemplating bet because you have some showdown value and could also play as semi bluff but it's just not worth it.
