US Housing Inventory Crisis: Its Impact on Home Prices 

Affording our mortgage is tough as well. I have suggested cashing in, renting or relocating, and investing the rest in the stock market.

If you can afford to relocate, you should manage the mortgage.

if you are looking to invest in the stock market, I suggest you Consider a fiduciary with mortgage-backed securities knowledge for guidance. Prices today may look like dips tomorrow.

You're right, I and a few Neighbors in Bel Air Area work with an advisor who prefers we DCA across other prospective sectors. Instead of a lump sum purchase, Following this, my portfolio grew 40% in the last quarter.

Who is this person guiding you and how can i reach he/she?

We're working hard to make these videos as valuable as possible. Glad you like them!

I totally agree with Genesis_JG96, been viewing your presentations/podcasts on RU-vid for I think 2yrs maybe a little more, however your solid research, and analysis of the data sources you acquire to present in chart-form for presentation is superb...along with how you explain the charts and conclusions to be drawn are excellent! I consider you on par with a good economics professor...or those who know this subject. Thanks so much for the hard work you share on RU-vid!!!

It really is fantastically done

Better than Game of Trades? Or Joe @ Heresy Financial? Maybe so 👍

I agree.

It's a vicious cycle. If people can't afford homes, they might delay retirement savings, but if they focus solely on saving for this. Economic instability, inflation, and market fluctuations can further complicate matters and add to people's financial worries

Americans are facing a tough time with their finances, especially concerning housing affordability and retirement savings

I'm getting worried about the rising housing prices. It seems like it's becoming harder to afford a home these days

Inflation can erode the purchasing power of your money over time, especially in today's global economy

Exactly. With prices seemingly going up on everything, I'm not sure how to protect my finances

This is our mission!

I suggest you offset your real estate and get into stocks, A recession as bad it can be, provides good buying opportunities in the markets if you’re careful and it can also create volatility giving great short time buy and sell opportunities too. This is not financial advise but get buying, cash isn’t king at all in this time!

Home prices will come down eventually, but for now; get your money (as much as you can) out of the housing market and get into the financial markets or gold. The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage guidelines are getting more difficult. Home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes. If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets.

Do you mind sharing info on the adviser who assisted you?

Melissa Elise Robinson is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..

Wow, her track record looks really good from what I found online. i just searched her name and messaged her and I also scheduled a call with her

I also think a big problem we will see for first time buyers is if/when home prices soften you will see banks tighten lending standards... 3% down isn't that risky for the bank when home prices are appreciating 5 or even 10% YoY.... there will always be equity. But what if home prices go down by 2%... now that 3% downpayment isn't enough protection for the bank. So nearly all first time home buyers will be screwed.. after years of high rents they do not have money for a downpayment... most don't have 5% let alone 20%.

Exactly, nobody who has a rate in the 2-4% range is going to sell unless they absolutely have to. And if they do sell, the smart move might actually be to rent in the meantime. So they're not necessarily buying even after they sell.

because most new inventory are “luxury town homes” or mcmansions; how about we build single family homes 1500-2200 sq ft; no upgrades, carpet throughout…no they don’t build that

@@bmdo6870 There doesn't seem to be a market for 1950 style homes that are small but have a big back yard. People don't go outside anymore, kids don't play outside. The people with money want a big house, and the people who don't have money want a townhouse. Going from townhouse to small single family house dramatically increases the land cost because the footprint is twice as large, but it's only marginally nicer, so there isn't demand for that.

​​​​​@@bmdo6870They dont build anymore the typical 1800sq, 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom single family house because the draconian zoning regulations make it absolutely impossible for developpers to turn a profit. Only at the $700k+ price range they can soak up the sky high tax and regulatory fees to make it profitable. Do you want to see more affordable housing being built? Ease down on the regulation and taxes to incentivize builders!

​@@shawn576I think buyers exist for it, but it'd builders would make it so expensive because every house they dont build is money they dont make, so they'll charge more for the land that they didnt build on.

Yes, a good number of folks are raking in huge 6 figure gains in this downtrend, but such strategies are mostly successfully executed by folks with in depth market knowledge

@@EdmundEthan093 Very true, Despite having no prior investing knowledge, I started investing before the pandemic and pulled in a profit of approximately 950k that same year, In reality, all I was doing was getting professional advice

@@roxdietren How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financial future and I am eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success

@@AlfredStephen127 I'd say a little due diligence " claire robert's durand" truly exceptional

@@roxdietren Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up after scrolling a bit. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her. Once again many thanks

We love to hear that!

Home prices will come down eventually, but for now; get your money (as much as you can) out of the housing market and get into the financial markets or gold. The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage guidelines are getting more difficult. Home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes.If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets.

Personally, I can connect to that. When I began working with a fiduciary financial counsellor, my advantages were certain. I got into the market early 2019 and the constant downtrends and losses discouraged me so I sold off, got back in Dec 2021 this time with guidance, Long story short, its been 2years now and I’ve gained over a million dollars following guidance from my investment adviser.

This is huge! think you can point me towards the direction of your advisor? been looking at advisory management myself.. seeking ways to invest and make more money with the uncertainty in the economy.

‘’Aileen Gertrude Tippy’’ is her name. She is regarded as a genius in her area and works for Empower Financial Services. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.

Thanks a lot for this suggestion. I needed this myself, I looked her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.

They can only play that game for so long... 1/3 completed homes gets expensive when you start to do that en masse... the foundation contractor, site work company and framers aren't going to wait 6 months to get paid.

@@jonathantaylor6926 I agree, but the big boys made tons of profit recently, so I think they can float their subs for a much longer time this time around.

Correctomundo. You can bet every "old" trick is being used, along with a few new ones. No one went to jail.

Thank you for your support. We greatly appreciate it!

@@EPBResearch always appreciate your concise presentation of precise analysis backed by hard data!

It doesn't matter. Supply significantly under runs demand. It's not like 2008 from a fundamental standpoint. Construction never rebounded after 08. Housing is the new Mercedes. It's a luxury product

People are still broke so it wouldn’t matter much

You can get 5.5 on new build at thats not helping them sell.

@@jonathantaylor6926 those companies are taking from their bottom line and prepaying the mortgage to make the effective rate 5.5% without cutting prices. No one beats the 10 year on a 30 year mortgage

@@jonathantaylor6926 I'm assuming the 5.49% rate you're referring to is after a buydown with builder credit, which can also be used on closing costs instead. If a buyer was just short of a 20% down payment and was planning to rate hack, they could opt to put builder credit toward closing costs to help get them there. Haven't run the numbers on this strategy yet, but this is what I'm leaning towards for my 1st home.

Zoning regulation fees have become so expensive that developpers cannot turn a profit in the 1800sq, $300k price range. That is why they only build in the 3000sq, $600k+ range anymore. We gotta deregularize the industry to incentivize new affordable developments.

It is turning. I bought one of those 600k+ homes in a large community and was one of the last few homes sold. The next phase of development they fired the current builder and brought on DR Horton to build ranch homes on smaller lots. I guess they learned from our homes that there arent a lot of buyers for 4,000 sq ft homes going forward.

My bet is that a similar type Evergrande situation will happen in the US, which will be the spark that sets off that type of downward price spiral. Lots of small banks have given out risky loans to businesses to invest in real estate. We already saw two bank failures (Silicone Valley Bank) a year ago, and Powel said to expect more in the future. Whatever happens, businesses that have invested in real estate are a prime candidate to crash the market. If a bank fails which leads to those business failing, or those businesses fail due to bad capital management, that's all it would take to drive the entire market down due to multiple factors. A risky market with failing businesses will slow demand, and failing RE investment firms will throw tens or hundreds of thousands of homes onto the market that need quickly liquidated, which will drive prices down quickly. This can also happen from the bottom up, hitting the small local investor first. Consider that AirBnB has about as many open rooms as the US has missing homes. Rooms aren't directly comparable to homes, but a crash that affects short term rental properties that are heavily mortgaged will also cause huge inventory surplus. Bottom line, I agree. There's lots of inventory out there, if people and businesses wake up one day, change their mind, and decide to start selling. There's record low home occupancy right now, and that's an unsustainable situation. Investors got too greedy, and now no one can afford any home. When one large investor cracks and inventory spikes, the entire market turns on a dime.

@@Travis12861 well I guess this just underscores the "real estate is local" theme!

I'd bet against that trend. The majority of the trade job market is powered by new construction. You need far fewer electricians or carpenters to fix an issue than you need to build a home from scratch. Plus, those old homes needed fixed anyways. Whoever moves into the old home would have needed to repair their home, so that shouldn't have an upwards effect on the market. A construction crash will drive wages down, for better or worse.

It's immaterial honestly. We're something like 3 million homes under built and increasing. Any new listings will just get snapped up. Is there an upper limit to house pricing? You betcha. Were at max expenditure...but there's still millions of people that are waiting for an opportunity to buy. When you think of housing like a luxury product, the pricing starts to make more sense. It's going to stay high for a very long time.

2008 cannot be replicated, the restrictions and over corrections implemented after the housing market crash make that situation impossible.

This makes 2008 look like a lemonade stand. Both bubble are driven by out of control speculation. This time the speculation is significantly higher as are the fraudulent values. And no one is taking about the shady, private money, balloon loans and appraisal fraud that’s happening right now. The shortage is a completely lie

@@Thecelestial1it won’t be a housing crash, itll be commercial real estate lead crash.

@@Thecelestial1 The amount of leverage and speculative investment poured into RE is equal to or worse this time around. Just because the front door of the house got closed (barely) doesn't mean the rats didn't burrow themselves a new entry. It's called "shadow lending".

Sidelined buyers have no shot at a reasonable home price ever again unfortunately.

I disagree. The FED ultimately cares about one thing- the dollar. So long as we have hot inflation the FED can not cut even if the economy is deteriorating. Remember the FED doesn't just "cut rates" by decree.. The FED only has direct control over the "Over Night Rate"... the real way the FED lowers rates is through "Quantitative Easing"... so the FED for example does't just get to say "The 10 year UST is now going to pay 3%".... nope. In order for the FED to manipulate bond rates lower they have to BUY THE DEBT WITH PRINTED MONEY.... but that becomes a big problem because printing money to create demand for bonds and lower yields is practically the definition of "inflation". They absolutely cant QE into hot inflation or they will have way hotter inflation after a few quarters.

@jonathantaylor6926 that's cool, unless the government steps in to push investors out of the housing market, prices will never be reasonable again. And they won't because they are investors.

@@donaldbiden9492 Or the 10 year pays 6% (its historical average) and most RE investors become bond investors overnight. Most RE investors don't even want to own RE.. it's a massive pain in the ass managing rentals.. with bonds you literally do nothing and you incur zero risk.

@@donaldbiden9492 “Push”? Explain please.

I suggest you offset your real estate and get into stocks, A recession as bad it can be, provides good buying opportunities in the markets if you’re careful and it can also create volatility giving great short time buy and sell opportunities too. This is not financial advise but get buying, cash isn’t king at all in this time!

You are right! I’ve diversified my $450K portfolio across various market with the aid of an investment coach, I have been able to generate a little bit above $830k in net profit across high dividend yield stocks, ETF and bonds.

Do you mind sharing info on the adviser who assisted you?

There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’ Melissa Terri Swayne” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.

I am grateful for your assistance. My finances have been in disarray, and I have experienced multiple losses in my 401k, IRA, and mutual funds. I hope that Melissa can provide me with the guidance needed to rectify the situation before it reaches a critical point.

I think the video is explaining the WHY behind your statement there 😂

If anything, it'll get worse. Very soon, affordable housing will no longer be affordable. So anything anyone want to do, I will advise they do it now because the prices today will look like dips tomorrow. Until the Fed clamps down even further, I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. You can't halfway rip the band-aid off.

Home prices will come down eventually, but for now; get your money (as much as you can) out of the housing market and get into the financial markets or gold. The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage guidelines are getting more difficult. Home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes.If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets.

@@LucasBenjamin-hv7sk Impressive can you share more info?

There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with Annette Marie Holt for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.

But if you take take cost of living / house price and basic buying power in 1990, that 10% interest rate wasnt so bad compare to now. 1990, 60k house income 200k house. 2024 100k house income 900k house. You see the difference?

Consider reallocating from real estate to other reliable investments like stock, crypto or precious metals . Severe recessions offer market buying opportunities with caution, as volatility can yield short-term trading prospects. Not financial advice, but it may be wise to invest, as cash isn't ideal in this period.

It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.

this is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation

Well, there are a few out there who know what they are doing. I tried a few in the past years, but I’ve been with Melissa Terri Swayne for the last five years or so, and her returns have been pretty much amazing.

Appreciate this recommendation, hopefully I can get some insight to where the market is headed and strategies to beat the downtrend with when I hear back from Melissa.

that scenario wont happen for another 10-15 years unfortunately

@@fabioj- The bubble really should have popped already except that China crashed first. The Chinese investors all pulled out and started buying in the US instead. That is a problem because the bubble in China was so big that entire cities were built full of unoccupied skyscrapers as an investment tool and it didn't matter that nobody could afford to rent them. That was never the point. Yes it could continue another 10 years until the boomers die off, but if that Is how it plays out we are screwed because popping a bubble that big virtually destroy the entire economy.

Also if we see a deep recession I bet 75% of AirBnB's hit the market.. that system has never been tested during a bear market but hotel stocks always get absolutely crushed during recession.. leisure is literally one of the worst segments of the economy in recession- its the fist thing cut out of a persons budget.

I'm surprised that you just mentioned Natalie Strayer here also Didn’t know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, i'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.

The very first time we tried, we invested $2000 and after a week, we received $9500. That really helped us a lot to pay up our bills.

Natalie Strayer has really set the standard for others to follow, we love her here in Canada 🇨🇦 as she has been really helpful and changed lots of life's

I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?

After I raised up to 125k trading with her I bought a new House and a car here in the states also paid for my son's surgery Glory to God shalom.

You're demonstrating a fundamental misunderstanding of the discussion. Months supply is literally a measurement of supply and demand. Claiming that it assumes a equilibrium is a meaningless statement, because that would mean there is a 0 months supply. Months supply doesn't get measured in the negative, it's literally saying how long it would take for an event to occur.

You may want to contact a physician, you might be having a stroke

Bot comment? Second nearly identical I've seen this week.