Vote 2024: The science and security behind the UK general election exit poll

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The Exit Poll will be the first big moment of election night and the clearest indicator of how the parties have done and who could form the next government.
Commissioned by the broadcasters - Sky, BBC and ITV - the fieldwork is carried out by IPSOS UK who will have interviewers at 133 polling stations around the country this year.
Sky's Ed Conway explains how the poll works.
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Опубликовано:

29 июн 2024

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Комментарии : 339

@manah5479 День назад

We're going to see incredible results

@DeliMeatTree День назад

Reform have stolen the racist vote from the tories and handed Labour the election. It's actually beautiful.

@stevenandrean2661 13 часов назад

Starmer in UK. Biden in US.

@elrevesyelderecho День назад

0:20 Where is Larry?

@ChangesOneTim День назад

For reasons of national security, during election purdah period Larry must not be seen or heard.

@mattthorne8419 День назад

i hate exit polls, ruins the surprise.

@davidhollins870 День назад

Unless it is wrong - watch the 1992 coverage.

@aydinturhan9698 День назад

Yup. And such a waste of money. Let's watch the results come in

@aydinturhan9698 День назад

@@davidhollins870 probs coz the technology is much better now I doubt that'll happen again

@CarlEveriss День назад

Let's hope for the democracy of this country, that there is no fowl play by the establishment. Having watched mainstream media for the past 4 weeks, I fear that might not be the case.

@bigredsock1 День назад

I feel the same way about ultrasound scans revealing the sex of a baby before it is born.

@aydinturhan9698 День назад

Exit poll such a waste of money. Were going to get the results overnight anyway. And it ruins the suprise

@Tropic101x День назад

Step 1: vote, step 2: hear exit poll, step 3: see if actual votes is the same as exit poll

@darrenhopkins6829 День назад

😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂 They dont even habe Nigel up because they are all working together to stop him. The uniparty and all our media. Vote Reform

@stevielfc5437 День назад

Yes cause everyone wants to vote for such an excellent party with top morals 😂

@RaRa-eu9mw День назад

Because he's not going to win.

@darrenhopkins6829 День назад

@@RaRa-eu9mw yeah true, that's why all the media are against him. Because he's not going to win lol

@IMBlakeley День назад

Not everyone wants to vote for fascist Putin puppets representing a limited company.

@aeiio8372 День назад

@@RaRa-eu9mw Hell, Nige admitted so.

@BigIronAlba День назад

No nigel farage on the screens i wonder why 🤨

@jamesandmikey32 День назад

He will be next election they showcase people with biggest parties previous election reform had one MP. Hence him not being on screen.

@RaRa-eu9mw День назад

@@jamesandmikey32 He won't be next election either. Reform are only going to get 3 or 4 seats.

@DrzBa День назад

Because his party currently has 1 seat, and the very many polling companies have no legal heft or status.

@playerone9824 День назад

Because he is a nobody when it comes to the big picture.

@melbo897 День назад

this is an awful interference by major media

@jackrussell3755 День назад

Exit Poll = Were all fucked no matter who wins

@darrenbrians5930 День назад

Count yourself lucky. Englands population density is 448/km🤢. And we need to build a new house every 2 muinuts for the 4.2 million immigrants every 3 years🤢. Scotland is a paradise of clean air. In comparison

@pevebe День назад

As an Englishman I reckon England's better off independent

@stevie2686 День назад

@darrenbrians5930 yeah but we get taxed higher. In Scotland I mean

@jackrussell3755 День назад

@@darrenbrians5930 we do also have a housing crisis btw, the blame immigrants get for it is mental

@jackrussell3755 День назад

@@pevebe gen up we would all be better independent imo

@stan_austin День назад

Maybe it’s just the social bubble I’m in but pretty much everyone I know, both inside and outside of work are voting Reform.

@Hermantrueman 15 часов назад

Same in my area and work place 😊

@playerone9824 11 часов назад

Bullshit. Bots.

@UKUrbanPrepper День назад

lol. Reform may shock everyone... I genuinely know so many people turning to them

@TGBR2 День назад

reform uk will win

@ABritishGamer1 День назад

I'm left wing but I agree. I think reform have a good chance of being the official opposition and getting more votes than the Tories and lib Dems

@Bedwards42 День назад

I genuinely know no one that is voting for them. Anecdotal data is practically worthless.

@aeiio8372 День назад

@@TGBR2 Nigel literally admitted Starmer is gonna be PM.

@danielchesee3895 День назад

I worry many people turning there are usual labour voters and that this will lead to a conservative win

@no-oneinparticular7264 21 час назад

Does delays in Royal mail delivery of ballot papers to certain areas suggest anything ?

@tempejkl 12 часов назад

Democracy is an election

@bouyaharumuchi 2 часа назад

Ballot fraud? Narhh.. that could never happen... right?!?

@rikjvision-qy5gv День назад

sky news ..................what a load of s.t

@paulmartin6249 День назад

Reform. Only option blue wall red wall take your country back.

@MaxPayne-fi1mz День назад

GEORGE GALLOWAY ✋✋

@tempejkl 12 часов назад

@@MaxPayne-fi1mz👍👍👍👍

@anthonygbuk 10 часов назад

But they won't win so is pointless waste of a vote.... this country only has two possible outcomes but whoever will win more likely the red wall it will be just the same nonsense.... labour blaming Tories how they wrecked the country once they see the books and nothing to resolve it.

@givemoreblood День назад

say no to exit polls

@DevonPixie1991 День назад

I would love to be asked to do an exit poll. I’d put opposite of what I voted because I can!

@RaRa-eu9mw День назад

why?

@user-fg5fh9ps5u День назад

Iam not voting no ID photo its all a con this i applied for one it asnt come joke

@tempejkl 12 часов назад

Watching what’s happening with Reform is like watching the NSDAP come to power.

@jyexvi3184 День назад

Vote reform time for change now !

@dirtyden1 День назад

Hahaha... no

@TheSuperPsychoKiller День назад

Reform is the garbage bin for right wing votes. Thanks for cleaning up.

@dean9235 День назад

Reform is not change, though. Change would mean new people and different ideas. Farage is an ex-Tory and we all know the apple doesn't fall far from the tree. 🍎

@TheSuperPsychoKiller День назад

@@dean9235 change would be going far left not far right from the right.

@RogerMellie-yk3gw 20 часов назад

Reform? The racist ones? Gross. No, thanks

@Abraham-uk4xy 22 часа назад

I thought sky was forecasting labour will get 423 seats and the Tories 53?

@tubster01 15 часов назад

Why don't they just use an iPad that instantly captures and aggregates the results, without the need to count them manually and call someone to tell them the answer lol... It's not official so why the paper process?

@adamredford5204 19 часов назад

sadly the upcoming results are more a result of complete failure by the Tories on a scale of 0 to 10 at about minus 5 and not a result of positivity of any other party

@sadik.oagile6779 День назад

Incredible graphics Sky News!

@yankeejade День назад

Amazing and interesting that just about everyone 😁 is talking about Reform across all major social platforms and in the neighborhoods, but not the media. 🤔🤔

@RaRa-eu9mw День назад

Because they won't win, so there's little point.

@JohnBeeblebrox День назад

@@RaRa-eu9mwPay attention. Reform have stated, many times, they are targeting 2029 building a strong opposition to the almost inevitable Labour win on Thursday.

@RaRa-eu9mw День назад

@@JohnBeeblebrox But they don't be the opposition either. They're going to come fifth most likely. In 2029, after seeing that voting Reform just means a huge Labour victory, I doubt their supporters would be dumb enough to vote for them again.

@Nigelfarij День назад

@@JohnBeeblebrox They won't exist by then. Every five years, Farage joins a new party.

@Me-ui1zy День назад

@@JohnBeeblebrox They won't be the opposition either tho

@matthewmarsh9760 16 часов назад

So wrong increase risk of corruption for no benefit m, just wait for the results People defo make money of this

@Buy_YT_Views_596 День назад

This video is like a spark of inspiration that ignites a creative fire within.

@odindave6506 День назад

Reform may shock some but im expecting them to do very very well

@RF_Burns День назад

Don't forget to use your own black ink pen people.

@david1731048 День назад

And your tin foil hat.

@RF_Burns День назад

@@david1731048 Of course, that goes without saying!

@RogerMellie-yk3gw 20 часов назад

Lol. Why?

@HammerThumbs 23 часа назад

Rigged we want paper ballots do there is no electronics involved! Reading results over the phone??? CMON!!

@tempejkl 12 часов назад

Exactly. Vladimir Putin introduced electronic voting / this allowed him to add fake voted to steal a victory from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. So that his party, United Russia, could win instead

@matthewmarsh9760 16 часов назад

Reform are going to get about 23% at least, if not a big shock and more

@TraderdayScalp-e9u День назад

Remember don't vote in pencil

@RaRa-eu9mw День назад

It's so funny. Conspiracy theorists who think people can take away a ballot, erase the pencil, and write in a different vote, don't think they could just bin any vote that used permanent marker.

@melgrant7404 День назад

@@RaRa-eu9mwprobably easier to bin it yes.

@jackrussell3755 День назад

im taking my crayons 🤝

@DeliMeatTree День назад

Doesn't matter, labour will win.😂

@RogerMellie-yk3gw 20 часов назад

@@jackrussell3755I'm signing in blood. Probably my own

@Adywebb123 День назад

👎. Absolutely disgraceful no mention of Reform Uk. That’s where my votes going

@MATRIX.... День назад

✊

@RogerMellie-yk3gw 20 часов назад

Why mention those small fries. They're only predicted two seats. Just some fringe racists, like BNP

@Adywebb123 16 часов назад

@@RogerMellie-yk3gw More likely to be 50. Try to keep upto date

@ellismeah8110 День назад

Havn't the Establishment already decided the'll be a Labour govt

@Bedwards42 День назад

No, the electorate have.

@letsdiscussitoversometea8479 День назад

No. The _-sheep-_ *people* -end up doing what they're thick enough to not do any critical thinking with- decide upon a candidate based upon -playing a thoroughly predictable "let's try to limit the damage we're going to choose to put up with giving our voluntary signature for -_-this time-_- around" game that they bring entirely upon themselves to deserve to endure- -the unwavering belief that -*_-this-_*- time, things will definitely be alright based on "that I'm absolutely POSITIVE this leader "gets" me"- -choosing to put up with something knowingly harmful to themselves and to other people- a perfectly reasoned consideration of the full facts presented to them.

@ianjleech 23 часа назад

There'll be some big names losing their seats, unfortunately not all of them Tories.

@Helen-wz2qb День назад

Sky news true to form. Leaving out candidates. Your bias is showing. Nigel Farages Reform will get seats. We have had enough of the two main party's. Both are useless. We need change. And i believe it is coming.

@MATRIX.... День назад

✊

@jaybok100 День назад

Spot on 👍

@davidboers8995 День назад

The exit poll hasn't happened yet. All the MRPs say he will get seats.

@carterjoel8467 16 часов назад

Wtf where is Nigel

@dougoneill7266 День назад

Can someone explain to me, like I'm 6, what significance an exit poll has when the actual result will be available the next day, in most cases? Is this article some kind of cover up of how wildly inaccurate most polling is? it's a bit like giving me the weather forecast for the next two minutes.

@RaRa-eu9mw День назад

It gives us information for the following 24 hours of what the result is likely to be.

@dougoneill7266 День назад

@@RaRa-eu9mw I rest my case.

@RaRa-eu9mw 23 часа назад

@@dougoneill7266 ?

@ryandevlin5651 22 часа назад

I think the exit poll is mainly there to give news channels something to talk about during the overnight election coverage. At 10pm there will be a big announcement, usually followed by interviews and commentary on the result to fill the air time as the real votes get counted.

@12dougreed День назад

And?

@junumesh9124 16 часов назад

It will disastrous and suicidal to vote for labour.strammer.vote for the tories.rishi sunak

@dragonfly6908 13 часов назад

Starmergeddon?.

@RecedingRebel День назад

*I want someone who practises yoga & meditating to run this country (Just putting this out there to see whos like minded)*

@khaledchy4325 День назад

General marcy or Amnesty may coming Very soon labour previous commitment that’s asylum seekers overs stayers may wait for Khaled Hussein Chowdhury

@stanbily9416 14 часов назад

Reform 👏🏽

@Rhino123-d2t День назад

VOTE REFORM

@MATRIX.... День назад

✊

@donavancaton2042 День назад

🫡

@Thb202 День назад

hello ruski bot

@Greytruth2 23 часа назад

Nah, we've had enough of right wing politics.

@artvampire5421 7 часов назад

Nah

@dombyers6379 День назад

Where vote 2017

@longandshort6639 23 часа назад

I would love it for a total surprise and to see Reform win!

@jax3722 22 часа назад

They can’t with our voting system, we don’t have proportional representation like France voting Reform will put Labour in power

@darrenbrians5930 День назад

Reform won't collapse the NHS with 4.2 million immigrants in 3 years. Reform ❎️

@natsurusenou131 День назад

No, they'll collapse it by selling it off instead.

@northernlass24 12 часов назад

Making plans for Nigel. ?

@baltukur3368 День назад

bs exit poll means nothing

@RaRa-eu9mw День назад

howso?

@melgrant7404 День назад

Hasn't been wrong in recent years.

@OblivifrekTV День назад

@@RaRa-eu9mw they've been wrong before, 1992 comes to mind

@RaRa-eu9mw День назад

@@OblivifrekTV That was 32 years ago, and not using the current methodology.

@paulmcconville218 День назад

Where farage. Dirty sky no better than bbc. We are waking up.

@lizzys625 День назад

Reform to win 🥇 bring a pen 🖊️ ✅. don’t use a pencil ✏️ ❌

@optimalintelligent8090 День назад

The Workers Party of Britain (WPB) has launched its election manifesto with a series of promises to improve “poverty pay" and boost social housing. The party, launched in 2019 after Labour's election defeat, is running in its first general election with a slate of 152 candidates. At an event in Manchester, leader George Galloway said his party favoured an expansion in council housing and the transformation of the leasehold system. Other policies include raising the tax-free allowance from £12,570 to £21,200 for "two million low-paid workers".

@elizabethsamson5591 День назад

WE CAN CHANGE THE RESULTS BY GETTING OFF OUR BACKSIDES AND GOING OUT AND VOTING- REFORM UK ALL TH WAY

@MATRIX.... День назад

✊

@nickyc829 День назад

RIP london

@mathewlanigan8767 День назад

Reform for me ❤

@grey3987 День назад

Labours Plan : step 1 : open the gates of hell , step 2 : print money and increase inflation , step 3 : tax working class people , step 4 : increase council tax above max , step 5 : Green everyone , will be a cold winter .

@ExplorewithSarahlouise День назад

I think 15 min city foundations will Be laid too and then pushing up mortgages so much people will have to sell and the rich will sweep them all up

@playerone9824 День назад

Yep! It's going to be awesome! 😂✌️

@tempejkl 12 часов назад

@@ExplorewithSarahlouiseWhat’s wrong with 15 minute cities? I’ve been to one (Barcelona) and it’s lovely

@wendiwoo7 19 часов назад

Of the cons get in its one big mighty scam

@user-ew2kq4iv5b 21 час назад

Reform all the way.

@m25localsprojects21 22 часа назад

Only party which really represents Britain at this current political scenario is George Galloway's workers Party. therefore I'll be voting for George Galloway's candidate.

@tempejkl 12 часов назад

workers of the world unite

@dean9235 День назад

All a big illusion that the great unwashed have choice!

@Hermantrueman 15 часов назад

Sly news sly on reform uk not having nigels fase on show 😮

@kokobird 14 часов назад

Niko omilana

@rogerdodger8813 День назад

Vote for those those the media hate. Reform!

@tempejkl 12 часов назад

The media hate George Galloway.

@lw1zfog День назад

the City of London square mile corporation partisan polytricks game is a shell game scam

@goodquestion8064 День назад

Il be voting reform ,

@thaignome День назад

No bias here then, gfy sky.

@EtharealBTB День назад

where was the bias? He literally shows previous election results compared to the exit poll, and then explained roughly how it works for the people doing the job...

@playerone9824 День назад

@@EtharealBTBThey'll be a Reform voter crying that everything isn't about them and their dear liar of a leader.

@user-ee1zb1fn3y День назад

@@playerone9824Just keep keeping sneering. Let's see how it plays out.

@fraz0r677 День назад

BYE RISHI

@RogerMellie-yk3gw 20 часов назад

Caps!!!!! Got to be an important comment

@butzee 13 часов назад

Love it how Farage isn't on your graphic? Come Friday he'll be very very prominent?

@ChangesOneTim День назад

On what criteria are the 133 polling stations chosen? Are exit pollsters there from open to close, ie ensure a representative sample of the demographic through the day? Presumably pollsters need to ask a minimum % sample of exiting voters, but must a minimum % of those asked agree to take part? And what happens if certain sections of the electorate are inherently less or more willing to take part?

@RaRa-eu9mw День назад

They are chosen to be a good variety of station demographics and voting patterns which are strongly indicative of wider trends. Exit pollsters aren't there from open to close, but the time they are there is standardised. It's not a sample, but all voters at that station. There's no minimum % participation rate. Almost all voters agree to take part anyway. The assumption is this pattern will be roughly the same each time, so the bias cancels out.

@user-wq6sz7vt3w День назад

London Labour/Tory lies!!

@marcust123 18 часов назад

Vote reform

@Fluid-Druid День назад

The get it wildly wrong ever election

@RaRa-eu9mw День назад

No they don't.

@EtharealBTB День назад

Wtf is with all the Reform bots

@jamesmonkey5314 День назад

Vote reform!!

@markbradley1015 День назад

Not bots its brits 🇬🇧

@playerone9824 День назад

I know right they're everywhere!

@EtharealBTB День назад

@@markbradley1015 Are these brits in Russia by any chance? :P

@EtharealBTB День назад

@@playerone9824 I mean, the first reply to my post said "Vote ReforN!!" so it can't even get the party name right :P

@benson9654 День назад

We don't need pollsters, we know Reform will have the most votes But the least seats , political stitch up! we need Reform so vote ❎ for them !

@RaRa-eu9mw День назад

lol

@BenJ2020 День назад

Will be with Reform ;) come on

@Gerrygambone День назад

Reform UK ....The Racist Party.

@playerone9824 День назад

Jesus another bot... Russia are working overtime on this one!

@keithlowton308 День назад

VOTE REFORM.

@playerone9824 День назад

But I'm not racist though...

@MATRIX.... День назад

✊

@chaphidoesstuff День назад

Time for reform

@garykelly6669 День назад

I think we're all too aware of what Reform stand for. A party based on bigotry against, Immigrants, LGBTQ people and anyone who isn't white. They had a similar Party in Germany in the 1930s called the National Socialists

@Gerrygambone День назад

Fantasy land no way

@floopybits8037 День назад

Repeating ukip disaster again. Senses are ok ?

@chaphidoesstuff День назад

@@Gerrygambone labour is the fantasy land mate

@chaphidoesstuff День назад

@floopybits8037 all of UKIP's disasters were after farage left it 🤣

@MatthewWhalley День назад

Want change for the better? Vote Reform UK.

@Gerrygambone День назад

Vote for Reform is a Vote for Labour

@Loobie531 День назад

That's what the Tories and mainstream media are trying to convince everyone, luckily a vote for Reform is a vote for Reform@@Gerrygambone

@lenabo9929 День назад

Vote for reform is a vote lots of words little action

@TG-ts3xn День назад

@@lenabo9929as opposed to??

@TGBR2 День назад

@@Gerrygambonelabour and reform 2 different things, labour is allowing immigrants into country while reform isn’t

@LastPinster День назад

Everyone is going to vote Reform 👍

@lenabo9929 День назад

Likely 15% max lucking to win 3 seats

@playerone9824 День назад

"Everyone" 🙄🤔

@LastPinster День назад

@@playerone9824 Oh sorry , I should have said 'Anyone with more than two marbles rolling around in their head' 🙄 Some people don't qualify sorry 👍

@dirtyden1 День назад

No they not. We've had enough of snake oil salesman running the show.

@pevebe День назад

@@lenabo9929 3 seats 😂😂😂😂I'm gonna remember all these comments for thursday. Yous will all be sobbing into your hankies

@rayf926 День назад

Starmer will lie again.

@melgrant7404 День назад

Makes a change from tory lies.

@rayf926 День назад

Vote for Reform.

@playerone9824 День назад

I'm not racist though...

@tempejkl 12 часов назад

I like human rights, actually.

@darrenbrians5930 День назад

Reform won't collapse the NHS with mass immigration. Reform ❎️

@toomanyradsin2019 23 часа назад

I remember 2010. Told us the result before the votes were counted. 🤔

@RogerMellie-yk3gw 20 часов назад

No they didn't

@toomanyradsin2019 14 часов назад

@@RogerMellie-yk3gw "Hello, good evening, and welcome." I have got all the coverage of the 2010 Election from the BBC on hard drive.They gave the exit pole at the start. Which matched the results at the end. I suppose I was being sarcastic. Will be interesting to see how accurate they are on Thursday.

@RogerMellie-yk3gw 13 часов назад

@@toomanyradsin2019 me too. It wouldn't surprise me if the whole thing were fixed.