For the go 2nd, I didn't do the math, but for usage rate should be 2/3 for the last two scenarios for LWW and LWL because you're going to be going 2nd again if you lose, if we go by your assumptions. Of course, this is if you want Maximum MF usage. Still doesnt really take away from your argument though. Great video
Good point, but I think ultimately even if you hammer those odds into your head and logically see how Fuwalos would rarely come up if at all, getting Fuwalos-ed while you don't own any of your own feels bad and would stir FOMO And even if it's true that you can still compete without it, ultimately the winner of the Niagara Falls YCS main decked Fuwalos.
@@mkultrarare an extra extender also achieves that tho, so the odds of fuwaross resolving are still the only advantage it has over engine pieces, and those odds are the same as they showed, unless your deck is already maxed out on consistency and extenders
I don't compete so these Mulcharmy cards won't get chance to empty out my bank account. That said, the much smarter and economical move is just buy 1 of each of the Mulcharmies and 3x Crossout Designator instead (still pricy but much more doable. Listen you are competing at a high level vs an expensive game). Video was a total W real talk loved it.
In this case you could also just play 3 droll n lock 3 ash 1 called by as answers for mulcharmys so you don’t buy any way too expensive card - the droll birds of course not in your own turn but as a counterfloodgate on opponents turn - for this I can also recommend shifter if you can play it
love this approach to discussing cards-you're totally right towards the end mentioning that there *is* value in trading for your opponent's Ash for many decks, but there's also consequent risks like drawing it for your sixth card or bricking on it when you take the main deck approach. still feel like the card is really strong but this helps frame its in-game value / out-of-game price in relation to how often or seriously one plays the game.
You are ignoring a crucial aspect. Mulchami will remain at this price until there is a reprint. that means about 4 to 6 months. Until then you have only invested your money. It is crucial to get it back later. That is the secret.
People saying that Fuwalos is Maxx C 2 have clearly never played against Maxx C. I was looking at combo lines for my deck under Fuwalos and it can put up a decent endboard while only giving my opponent 1-3 draws (1 for a conservative play, 3 for aggresive). Under Maxx C that exact same line gives my opponent 5-8 draws lmao
@@RoyaltonDrummer922 then they are ignorant for making the statement of Fuwa= Maxx C when it's not even half as powerful in application. That makes them sound dumber and not the other way around.
While I agree here with some points I think few things are missing in this discussion - 1. *66% multiplier due to ash - In this case we still waste opponent's ash - which is still an advantage. 2. Fuwalos will be played by multiple opponents (even in locals) - actively creating this gap between you and them if you don't have it, potentially affecting multiple games. But overall wasting so much over a playset in a more casual environment for a slight increase of chance to win is a bit redundant. Yea it sucks since it gives a pay to win feeling to the game more than ever - but selling a kidney for it isn't worth it.
Also the 66% multiplier is only assuming Ash as the only counter to Fuwalos. It's a much lower percentage when you factor stuff like Crossout, 1 of Called By, Droll (if your own deck plays well into it) or even if your opponent plays decks that is naturally safe into Fuwalos like Centur-Ion, Labrynth, Memento, and even rogue decks like Millennium, decks that are very likely to appear in a locals setting
@@rosumboard + ash is harder to beat than board + no ash, this format is specifically bad for going second that makes it near impossible if they resolve cards (assuming a handtrap approach), so this format its a poor trade as you're not trading with their combo (or discouraging it as a resolved fuwa does), but there'll certainly be formats where you can push through the board with engine again, and at that point ash is a more important consideration to the end board, and something you're happy to get rid of
@Lobster44 so sometimes it's a good trade and sometimes a bad trade. So the approximation that when opponent draws ash, fuwa doesn't gain value compared to average card (I.e. applicability =0) is solid
I got back into yugioh in 2019 after leaving in 2013. since 2019 I've quit after a format or 2 then came back after a year a so only to quit again shortly after. I can say the main problem i had was i started consuming more content and a large portion of it is always something along the lines of "power creep", "this format sucks", "tier 0 deck dominates and ruins the game", "meta warping cards" etc. trying to get back into a game where every creator is trying to farm interaction by pumping out that sort of content is so demoralizing for a player trying to come back let alone a new player. Don't get me wrong, some of these things are for sure a problem for the game because it affects player retention and introduction, but for those who want to look past that, its videos like this show the beauty of the game because this is the game within the game that makes yugioh fun. The goal of the game has most certainly become not playing the game, and hand trap/negate interaction has become the bread and butter it almost feels as if konami has leaned into deck building as the main part of the game that separates good from bad players (im still going to netdeck). Videos like this to me are so much better than all the videos that cry about how a given card ruins or warps the game. nicely done big dog
Awesome breakdown and message. Another thing too is post side even if you have Fuwalos your opponent could be maining more cards to counter it like called by/crossout depending on how worried they are about it so the rate it resolves also goes down a bit, it still plays into things like thrust, etc etc. I personally wish they never printed the card but thats a whole different thing lol
Remember also it's not a guarantee that the person that draws and resolves Fuwalos that they will win. I just did a 6 round ( 7 round into top 8 ) case tourney where I got Fuwalos activated against me 5 times. Of those 5 times, I only lost 1 time because the 3 draws I gave him were all handtraps. All the other times they either didn't draw handtraps or not enough handtraps to really affect my turn. So that makes the effectiveness of Fuwalos even less affective than people realize because of the element of RNG
Plus even if you draw fuwalos and win, our brain automatically thinks it’s because of fuwalos, when perhaps even without (say in a parallel universe or something) we could’ve still won that game without it.
@@dpacula63I guess momento, lab and memento are bad decks then. Despite yknow lab doing well in current format, centurion just got a few tops post rota and memento too
Fuwa in Brazil costs 800 BRL. 3x MF = 2400 which is almost 2x the minimun wage. Its insane that mr komoney thinks that this rarity bump from ocg is healthy for the game
Good video, I wanna push back a lil bit with ash though. Namely as if youre a going first deck, youve used up your ash for when your opponent plays, and that does lower the layered interuptions that you have at your disposal. This matters less for combo decks as youd expect them to build up a stronger endboard, but even here it could be helpful to stop a drnm pushing through you enough. I get why youve included ash as a reason to reduce to simplify the maths a bit, and its a good use of ash. It does tempt me to believe that its not in line with you favouring fuwalos all the way though. As fuwalos did still bait out a handtrap 1 for 1, which may pay off later in the match Getting a like anyways though (edit: you do say this at 19:00, letting you know i watched that part of the vid, but i do think this is is an important point as people see numbers and I think theres a good case for the numbers being bigger than on the vid)
that logic doesnt apply vs fire king because they can sunlight wolf add it back. also, if your opponent negated your handtrap, he is more likely to build the board to which you probably just lose. in the end it doesnt matter if you trade non-engine 1:1 with your opponent. if you drnm, he judgments that or you ash and he crossouts or you fuwa and he ashes. if the tier 1 deck builds the board and your non-engine fails to contest it, you probably just lose
@@VORTEX___ if he judgements drnm, then that also is used up resources for later. Whilst we have been in a build a board format since February, there are break a board formats too. And there, resources being used 1 to 1 absolutely matter. I suspect with ryzeal it will matter. And yes, if you are playing sunlight wolf, I'm sure you can get ash back. But maybe you wished to use his effect on something else, and now need to use it on ash instead. We need to consider mulcharmy success not just for this format though, but also the next one Thx for reading my comment anyways though
@VORTEX___ this is correct. The statement isn't saying that trading for ash is 0 value. It says that trading for ash is 0 extra value over some generic card that also.trades 1 for 1.
@@GiovanniBallerinii crossout and called by have been popular cards for a while now for going first that indicates that it's favorable for the player going first to trade 1 for 1 with opponents hand traps.
Appreciate you trying to make people feel good about the fact that they're going to have undeniably worse odds of winning because they don't want to be treated like Konami's paypigs. It should be noted that if you want to do well you should be doing everything possible to maximize even small incremental increases in Wind chance because the more than you stack together the more likely you are to win in the end so you saying something like it's only a 10% chance increase is still gargantuan in the context of a competitive card game.
Plus if you add called by, crossout and droll that lowers the resolution of fuwalos. With that the win percentage due to fuwalos exclusively is actually much lower. Plus if we consider we could’ve won a game regardless of having fuwalos…say 60%, then fuwalos only be applicable in wins AT MOST maybe 2-5% extra win percentage while main decking. Imo it’s not worth $500 for a micro win percentage for a locals level. Regional tourneys probly not either. Beyond that and ya you want every little edge possible whatever it costs.
The jab at ggygo is funny. Honestly while math is cool and interesting to know, people really gotta understand, you dont have to buy shit you cant afford. Just enjoy the damn game, win without that shit, not everyone is a ycs champ some people are average local enjoyers that need to stay in their lane.
I'm probably still gonna get them if I have the spare money. Not only do I just want to have the option, with how much i am willing to waste on this game and how much I would play the card its worth it in my book, but i definitely agree that it isn't as applicable as I initially thought before release. I'd likely be maining it and 12% is enough for me. Only 2 games at the average regional near me, but thats enough of a difference for me (Assuming i did the math right. stats was never my thing).
I know this would have made the math harder, but do consider that people will be playing Crossout and CTBG specifically for this. Not to mention that maybe decks will start playing Fenrir or other sorts of low-celing boards which wouldn't even make you have such a high value from Fuwa. Of course that evaluating a card's power is pretty hard but I think it's worth considering for this discussion. I might consider Fuwalos if I could afford it but honestly I think I'm better off just playing Phantazmay as that card always trades for value since even if it gets stopped I never lost the card + it punching over some stuff or negating others is super valuable.
I didnt buy fuwalos but i did buy some rage of the abyss boxes and i pulled 2 fuwalos. Brought them to a 4 round local, and i drew fuwalos once in the entire tournament and my opponent ashed it 😂
TL;DW: Only buy Fuwalos if: - You're playing a Going 1st deck, you will main deck Fuwalos, and will attend a 7+ rounds event. - You're playing a Going 2nd deck, and you will main deck Fuwalos Do not invest on it if you're only playing locals, it's not worth it.
Yeah sure some people have topped without this card but the average player isn’t Ryan yu. And i guarantee you every top 8 spot at regionals will have this card. It blows my mind that $450 is worth the 10% chance of just getting prestige for you. Say what you will about Pokémon but $70 gets me that chance of prestige and anywhere from $1000-$10000.
I think the math is great, but the conclusion drawn is missing some application. Saying numbers like 12% of matches may be impacted by MF, misses the context that at a 10+ round YCS/regional you can expect one match to be impacted by MF and that one round could be the difference between you topping and not. Also, thinking of it in relative turns, that’s about the same odds as opening a specific 1 of in your deck, and how often do you feel like you draw the 1 of psy frame driver? Of course each person has a unique financial situation, but those who top typically are minmaxing and optimizing their chances of winning
Absolutly right, dont get me wrong the cards amazing and shouldnt be legal but its not, and no card ever will, be worth £100, its a piece of cardboard that will get reprinted in 6 months, I would argue a playset of mulcharmy for £100 is steep but kinda reasonable I feel it doesn't apply much and winning in tough situations is what makes me love the game, its why I play swordsoul almost exclusively regardless of the meta, since it rewards good piloting and feels so satisfying to break though a full snake eye board, which often doesnt work but its the attempt I love so much and if I succeed then its just that much better my biggest issue is the fact inorder to play crossout you need 1 and to not draw it, ideally in decks with a lot of none engine room I would play 3 crossout 3 ash 1 called by and a bunch of crossout targets. however inorder to use crossout I need one and I simply cannot justify keeping a £100 card even if I pull it (with the exception of S:P I pulled on my 18th, this is different because its a one of not a 3 of and is always available in the extra deck, this is only available 34% of the time) therefore if I decide to take on the more challenging role of going without it I get 4 ways to stop it which once again rewards those with the money to play it and therefore have it as a crossout target for other people they play against. They have an easier time into mulcharmy and also have an easier time winning because they own it and therefore there chance of winning is higher like you said, only slightly. but those 2 facts combined is my biggest issue with it (and I guess by extension the price), not how broken it is.
How much does SP Little Knight cost after the reprints? If you can find it for $10 anywhere in the TCG lmk, and SP is not a 3-of. Then by the time Fuwalos is reprinted there will be more staples. If you wait for the reprints you are always playing catch up, and going by MP24 I wouldn’t depend on it being any easier to pull in the reprint set.
What is it like if you can stop the ash (with crossout for example) Mathematically a 10-12% increase to win, is massive. Let's not forget that 10-12% is more meaningful.
Think this math is kinda jacked. You can look at anything and mathematically prove it shouldn't have statistically happen. Its like you can shuffle a deck for as far as we are concerned forever and never get a duplicate order yet every shuffle has an order. The more percentages of assumed numbers are multipled the further you get from reality.
Quantifying cards value is incredibly difficult but there is an argument that it's actually negative value here. Trading cards 1 for 1 while going second only works if you succeed 5 times and your 6th card gives value. If your opponent has 1 card that resolves for value then you are just handlooping yourself and reducing your chances to see a card that equalizes.
@@rosum Off the top of my head, having them throw the Ash so that your Original Sinful Spoils and Paidra/Terraforming resolves is obscene value So for this current metagame it is absolutely worth it
@omnom277 Yes, there are situations where it got value, but there are also situations where it loses value. When he says applicability = 0, he does not mean it gives 0 value it means that it gets no extra value compared to average card in deck.
@@rosum And those situations you say has value will come up very frequently in the current metagame where all of the great decks except Centurion is horrible against Fuwalos. What's your point? And even if your Fuwalos gets Ashed, that's still far better than having your own starters or choke points getting it instead. You do realise that in this situation, if you do not have Fuwalos, you're gonna have to do something else to address that Ash right?
@omnom277 the point was about trading with ash specifically, which one could argue is a poor trade in the current metagame considering how crossout and called by are popular
It doesnt matter if that card is worth the money or not. It doesnt matter if a deck without it can still win or not. The point is: having it is far better than not having it and just the fact that this card is existing for that price is turbo cringe
The deck I'm playing I don't even wanna play the little birdie in it... I'm playing adventure synchron and with all the bricks I have to play I don't wanna draw them
I just play decks that play around the cards I can’t afford.. still don’t play SP, never needed to and it’ll probably get hit before I can unless it’s reprinted in the 3rd 25th anniversary rarity collection.. btw we in year 26 now people 😅
Appreciate the math and spending time into this, but it is NOT okay. Why should the yugioh community compromise once again ? I have quit yugioh for about 2 years now. But if I was playing my line of thinking is this " why should I be okay being at a disadvantage in those 6% and 8% scenarios that you calculated ? " There is a reason Fulwalos is 140$ rn, in EVERY OTHER CARD GAME I WOUDLN'T BE AT A DISADVANTAGE IN THESE 6% AND 8% SCENARIOS, why should I be okay at being here ? Why should I "nerf" myself ? Just play another game until yugioh fixes things. If many people seriously start quitting they will have to do something about it.
i mean they’re gonna reprint it eventually. thats when the crossouts CBTG and ashes will be mandatory in every deck. for now its still unaccessible for many at casual levels due to the insanely high price and even i have a job. it shouldn’t affect your W/L rate much to warrant quitting the game entirely…
These cards are expensive in the west but super cheap in Japan. Buy a Japanese copy, call it good, and use it. You can legally use cards from other languages, i just saved you guys money. Youre welcome
