I just wanted to say that I respect your Wealthion Podcasts and channel is one of the best podcast I follow. You guys do great work you’re greatly appreciated. I heard you guys ask for other people to bring on his guests Can someone I think would be great for your channel is Steven Van Metre the bond king.
What a great video! This is just so informative. I loved the analogy of the pile of wood with gasoline all over it....just waiting for a match. ...."and we're here right now"
Rather have cheaper homes and higher rates, then higher priced homes and cheaper rates any day. Cause I believe in making a big enough down payment that it doesn't matter. I can't make a big enough down payment to matter, when homes are so expensive. Yeah, I might have a lower payment, but it will take me forever to pay off the home so screw that.
Plus you can always refinance to a lower rate! If you buy an overpriced house, you are stuck with paying that principal off, whereas the interest for your loan, is in a way “negotiable” through time.
I have a suggestion: Please post these on Rumble at the same time so we don't have to come over to Sh*tTube to see this excellent analysis before Monday.
Absolutely nail it everytime. I listen to a few channels. This wins by miles. Straight talking, no nonsense, any predictions are backed up and justified and no changing opinions, Keep up the good work and stick to what you know it works.....
Shocked these two guys dont get more follows. Straight up talk. No jibberish or grand standing. Simple explanation and best of all actionable calls for the average joe !
Great Session and Advice. I only own one Cannabis stock in YOURF. With all the Fed tightening, I would not get into any cannabis stock that has lots of debt to service, since banking access has not been legalized. YOURF is profitable already and has the lowest 'SP to Revenue ratio' of all in the sector. SP looks to be turning around now.
Lance was spot on with the cannabis sector. The problem in Canada is oversupply, low margins, and really spotty and confusing legal structure. I recently bought SNDL, because of their market leading position and net cash flows for the first time coming up. Everyone else in the sector is bleeding cash. Terrible sector overall, but like the man said, those who survive will be big as many go bankrupt and the market consolidates.
Good stuff, detailed insights. Lance had some good thoughts on credit markets and rates rising until something breaks, which he says would force the Fed to make smaller rate hikes. We haven't seen rates rise on their own like this in a while. Is he expecting bond prices on the long end, short end or both to rise? (rates to fall) The currency market also seems to be throwing a fit.
Great video as always fellas. I’m one of those guys that’s held a lot more cash that I wanted to for the last couple of years. Every time I watch you two I want to pick up the phone, sign up with Lance and wire him my cash.
Thanks again guys, great info .. and ... decent jokes :). One potential question for your Q&A session: How do Lance and/or the new Harbour pros choose stop loss limits?
And if they answer this, I hope they can answer how to plan your stop loss as to avoid a wash sale. If things happen so quickly, say you buy a stock, put a stop loss on it, but the stop loss happens within that time frame of a wash sale, now you can’t claim the loss on taxes. What’s the strategy?
@@JRP026 I believe you're misunderstanding what a wash sale is. A wash sale is when you sell a security for a loss then purchase that same security or a substantially identical one within 30 days. Which of course is moronic but that's government for ya 🙄
When discussing the state of the US Markets & the outlook for the 2-4 weeks ahead, I think more and more nowadays, that that discussions cannot be had without considering options positioning, and especially the key Options Expiration dates each month. The Options game, and the money flows that those options and their related dealer hedging flows create, have become so big nowadays that they have now become the tail that wags the dog. Market volatility (up & down) is amplified around monthly & quarterly Expiration dates. It's no random coincidence that the Market made significant moves around the monthly Expiration Date in Jan 2022 (21 Jan), Feb 2022 (18 Feb), and March 2022 (18 March). There's a tendency for Market commentary to look for exogenous reasons for the Market's moves around those dates, when in actuality the size & depth of those moves are more a reflection of the amplifying impact of options expiration & dealer hedging flows into that Options Expiration date. The April Options Expiration date is 15 April.
Ton of Thanks to you both Adam and Lance. After following many channels, I realized you both were way ahead discussing Yield curve inversion and when now whole fraternity is talking inversion, you are one step ahead for yield curve un-invert. Kudos to both of you to make it so simple. I was in same boat of guilt keeping cash and this week your insight helped me to stay focused and look for “opportunities” Great weekend dose….
I agree that it isn't the time to run away from the market if you are an active trader, which most people watching this are, but for some of my accounts that are managed funds, like the account I share that my parents set up for me, where I have to actually set down with a broker work out what bundled investments I want or something like a 401k rapid response to events isn't possible. That is sorta where I'm at right now. I haven't moved everything out on accounts I actively control, but on accounts where I can't rapidly respond to the market I've been making moves out because it is better to lose a bit of upside now and get out in front of what is coming while there is time than wait as late as possible and risk getting clotheslined by the market.
On a day when gold was down the gold miners had a good rally. This is very bullish. The gold miners generally lead the gold price in movement, which might seem counterintuitive but just compare the charts. Various currencies are experiencing high volatility. The smart money is already moving to gold stocks. Don’t be left behind.
I have never participated in a RU-vid video conference. How do I join the event. Will I receive an email invite? if not what do I do to join? Thanks, PS this is indeed a great Chanel on RU-vid (Wealthion), and I have watched almost every show for the last 9 months of so.
If the Fed is unable to continue to raise rates, as you suggest, will that cause the rate curve to reverse its inversion and start the recession this year?
An observation about the High Yield credit market & the JNK ETF (mentioned ~42min) - JNK has traded sideways in a +/-2% range since Nov 2020. Since Jan 2022 the JNK ETF was down 8.5% to the March 2022 low. Since then it's recovered 3.5%, so it's now down 6% since Jan 2022. HY credit spreads ran up to 4.2% in March 2022. Since then they've fallen back down to 3.3%. That's around the level where it was at in Dec 2021. Make if that what you will of that performance as a signal of a "healthy" or an "unhealthy" market...
I'm still in the market though. But I know market is high up its own FOMO farts, and not really "pricing in" the bad stuff. That's why I'm heavy in gold miners and some value stonks.
Thanks guys, there's no other really good investing shows like this the time goes so fast watching it. You guys are great at explaining stuff and I learn alot
Yes I have been holding out for the pump coming from the end of the war. I will be selling into that pump because all the other macro headwinds remain.
If Lance shows up next week with a straw hat, a mouthful of “snuff”, and an Old Farmers Almanac in hand, and opines about whether the “rain is gonna effect the rhubarb”- I’m gonna lose it!
Of course it's a bear market, bear squeeze right now, because the institutions don't want cheap prices to short against. They want prices to go up so they do a bear squeeze to move prices up so they can short again at higher prices. The shorts are also taking profits right now, while taking advantage of the buy on the dip crowd. If you think like an institution and you know there are a ton of buy on the dip traders, why would you short down here, and why not take advantage of the buy on the dip crowd by taking some profits to entice the buy on the dip crowd and conning them into thinking the short covering rally is the bottom.
What bonds have been performing well this week is he talking about? I don't see any. This guy is a big bond guy, watch out. Money isn't leaving the market. Look at the defensive stocks and look at the money going into inverse funds vs. volume going into TLT. Money not coming out of stocks and going into bonds if they ever will. Probably gold more like it than bonds. Fed policies haven't only screwed up equities but bond buying as well. Bonds continue to be in a bear market as well.
Had to re-watch a couple of parts... Lance really got me with the "good gummy bears".... still chuckling! Apparently I came for the excellent, informative and educational analysis and stayed for the jokes :)
19:10 No need to dumb things down Lance. Most viewers are reasonably knowledgeable. And the ones who aren't yet can look definitions up at Investopedia.
all stocks rise and fall together during these tumultuous times. I'm also holding mining stocks at the moment and ready to buy more if there's a capitulation. Good luck! Uranium and mining stocks should bounce back strongly
Adam, I love this channel because you have a knack for keenly articulating my own financial and market concerns, as in this video. I'm grateful for the connections to New Harbor (I became a client last year), and Lance---learning a lot along the way. Please keep up the great work and thanks for all you and the greater team do!
Lance Robert's is my favorite guest, well actually Neil Howe is, but he's in a category all by himself, but as far as economic updates go, Lance is the man! The other guests are all doom and gloom, "get ready for the next crash" ..."cash is trash"... "this is the end of the empire " ,....."everything will be destroyed!" bla bla bla , Im sick of hearing that already!
I don't know if 2018-2019 had this much fear in the market because now we have the Fed having to tighten until something breaks due to inflation. Europe is probably already in a recession. Just like the bulls say, this time IS different and I'm saying that as a bear. All I see is some very short term trading opportunities but gotta be crazy to be an investor here if you're not a trader.
Stock market cycles typically runs for 5 - 8 years yet I aggree that this current cycle might end up behing very short. Thing is bond cycles are way longer. We are coming out of a roughly 40 years bond bull market. Thinking that this
Really appreciate this weekly market recap series. Wondering if it is possible to talk about leverage in any of your future video. Maybe about should investor take on leverage, and how to manage the risk associated with that
Can the exogenous event precede the inversion of the yield curve ? An exogenous event like Russia invading Ukraine putting Europe almost definitely in a deep recession ?
Cathie Wood says that when the yield curve inverts, 12 to 18 months later, the economy is in recession 100% of the time. I think she has been around a little longer than Lance🤔
