What is China's future? Economic decline, or the next industrial revolution? 

The US paying double per person and having worst outcomes in healthcare makes the GDP Look great

18:40 Michael Hudson every time I hear you I get absolutely vital information worded in a way I can teach my young niece and nephews!! Thank you!!

This is what happens when the government actual work for its people and care for its country’s future, poverty elevation the world has ever seen, the most modern infrastructure, the high tech industry revolution, the responsibility for environment, I am so happy I live in this remarkable country. Thank you !

Why worry about China? What the world should worry is how the US is going to pay its debts especially those owed to foreign nations.

China has a bright future.

3:33 there is no accusation america can make, that america is not also guilty of.

As a Chinese person I think we are born with an innate understanding (read: mistrust) of property speculation. Of course we won't pass up the chance of making a quick buck, but deep down when things go wrong, we know what to do: ROLL UP OUR SLEEVES and do real work - work in a factory, or provide a service, or cook meals, or grow something on the land, or build a road, etc. The real advantage of China is a leadership that has retained that kind of grassroot wisdom, and a political system that gives that leadership room to manouvre in that direction without disturbing too badly people's sensibilities about rights and freedoms.

May China prosper

I'm seeing more industrialization of China not less. It's natural progression of any developing country.

Mick Dunford is difficult to forget, yall good job as always!

China is the proficient industrialized economy the world has ever seen.

China's future is so bright, it has to wear shades. 😎

It seems to me that a country that has succeeded in the way that China has in recent decades, is to be commended! A government that has kept its corporate oligarchs in check and protected the common people from poverty is commendable and all countries ought to respect and learn from China!

4 out of 5 of China’s banks are in the top 5 of strong banks…. All are state owned! ❤

China's exports saw an unexpected increase in the first two months of 2024, official figures showed on Thursday. The General Administration of Customs said exports rose by 7.1% In January and February combined, reaching a trade surplus of $125 billion (€114.7 billion).

Thank you, the three most intelligent, expertized, and knowing China better than anybody else, for the most valuable analysis on China's economy as well as its future.

Very informative and systematic presentations. ❤❤❤❤

China's future is bright, China has a longer-term plan and a united people!

Excellent presentation! Thank you

Thanks to you all! Wonderful episode.

Thank you!

fantastic talk everyone!

What a great talk thank you so much

After the current economic restructuring and mitigating the real estate problem, China will be gearing for the next cycle of explosive growth especially with a massive external economy.

I'm a huge Dr. Desai and Dr. Hudson fangirl! I am so grateful they exist, Ben has brought them to us, they so graciously and selflessly share their knowledge and wisdom!

Thank you! Always a wealth of knowledge from these folks.

Hello and thank you from Brazil!

China is so lucky to have you guys speak up for them ❤. Excellent discussion 👏👏👏👏

Thank you Professors Desai, Hudson and Dunford for this comprehensive insight on China's economy dynamics. Looking forward for the next episode✊🏼

Sovereignty is substantively more in the hands of Chinese citizens, than it is for United States (US) citizens. That is, because the state must be strong in order to prevent oligarchs from destroying the nation’s democracy. The state controls capital in China. That has allowed China to eradicate her poverty by 2020, despite having 4 times the US’ population. China is purpose driven to serve her citizens. Capital, however, controls the state in the US. That is why 9 of the 10 richest men in the world are US citizens, while 38 million Americans still live today in poverty. The US is profit driven for the benefit of its oligarch, and not driven to serve its citizens. 90% of Chinese are satisfied with their government, because the nation’s sovereignty lies in their hands. Conversely, only 33% of US citizens are satisfied with our government, because our nation’s sovereignty has been hijacked by oligarchs. The US hates China, because she refuses to allow US oligarchs to exploit the Chinese. Democracy is not for exploiting people!

Beautiful. An antidote to the distress I feel when listening to the many, many other financial channels that daily present misinformation about the collapse of china's economy. Just look to the various programs on the right side of this page

so soothing and relaxing listening to intelligent people talk!!!

Seguo M.Hudson dal 2012! I suoi interventi sono sempre impeccabili.

The content of this video should be made known to all the Chinese to carry on supporting their leaders as they have been enjoying the fruits of the combined effort of their leaders to look after the country. Just forget about all the noises from those who have no deep knowledge of China and by all the paid propagandists. Great appreciations to the two learned professors who live up to their professorships

Good stuff, as always. You guys rock!

To the East my brothers to the East - Buddha

Please compare the act of war executed by Russian against Ukraine and war executed by Israel against Palestinian, which one are more closed to an act of genocide? All the EU and US politicians had been silence about it Israel politicians consider Palestinian children future Hamas members, women are producer for future Hamas member, the current Palestinians peoples in Gaza are Hamas, so all these people are to be completely wipe off from Gaza city. So the war executed by Israel is the act of genocide to Palestinians. Just imagine, if there are no wars in all nations, what will be the political situations and environment in Europe, US, will US and NATO be able to sustain their military power in the next few years? The US always wants to instigate and create trouble between India and China, the same thing happens to those nations that participate in BRI and BRICKs. In my opinion, the US is the troublemaker for world peace.

Once upon a time there was a power name USA

Another great episode of Geopolitical Economy Hour. This time I've also fully appreciated the value of Mick Dunford's contribution to the insightful analysis provided by the dynamic duo of Radhika Desai and Michael Hudson.

The current mode of the globalization started with the political decision of the United States to stimulate the economic development of Japan so that it become a counterbalance to the Soviet Union and China in the East. As a result, the custom taxes were removed in the United States on the import of several industrial products from Japan notably textiles and consumer electronics. The results were impressive. Japan did propel in its economic development, with the standard of living significantly being improved. Simultaneously, cheap, diligent and industrious Japanese labour ensured, in the labour intensive industries, the very low production costs which benefited the US consumers. Most importantly, the corporations involved enjoyed huge profits . When the salaries in Japan increased, the profits from the labour intensive industries declined. To maintain the profit or the corporations and the flow of cheap import of consumer goods to US, the new pattern of globalization was extended to so called five Asian tigers. The taxes on their export were decreased or removed. As in case of Japan, many industries including garment, textile and consumer electronics moved to those countries. Again, with the rise of labour cost in Asian Tigers, this process was repeated with the inclusion of some other countries, particularly, ASEAN economies and then China and India. Everybody seemed to be happy. The new trend of globalization was eventually legalized in WTO agreements. But there were many seemingly unexpected side effects. Although, many developing economies, mentioned above, and even some developed countries like Germany have benefited from the globalization many other nations and their people have not been so fortunate. For instance, Arab countries, which are not oil producers, were not able to successfully compete in the new open economic environment. Their agriculture has been also damaged by the opening to the highly subsidized agricultural import from developed countries. Resulting deteriorating living conditions was the most important cause of the Arab spring . Similar results of the globalization are evident in many countries in Africa and the Latin America. This trigged many military conflicts in and the waves of immigrants from Africa , the Middle East and Latin America to developed countries both in Europe and America The global elite which has gained tremendously from the globalization is not worry of the plight of developing countries and their people. The immigration is even beneficial to the corporation as it allows to suppress the labour cost in the developed countries. But there have been others unexpected results. Most importantly, with many industries being moved from developed to developing countries, it appears impossible to maintain the level of life the people enjoyed in the second half of the last century in developed countries. Everywhere, the real incomes are going down , people have to pay more and more for the medical care and the education. The discontent is growing all over the wold resulting in backlash against the current economic system. It may be useful to recall that the initial wealth accumulation in the developed world started with the colonization and slavery. Then, it was discovered, that it was much more profitable to import cheap natural resources from developing countries, make value addition through manufacturing and then export back the product at very high price. So called the ceases of prices brought to the developed world even more wealth than the inhuman colonialism. As wealth was created within the countries, it was sheared between the elite and people. This ensured social and economic stability. As many wealth producing industries move from developed countries, there was a hope that the service and financial sectors became the back bone of their economies. However, the current development seems to support the view that the financial and service sectors only create wealth when they are the integral part of the real economy while the financial manipulations and speculations only increase the number of billionaires and the shear of the financial sector in GDP. The fiat currency capital has appeared to not sufficiently trickle down to the real economy to support sustainable development. Neither it has trickled down to the ordinary people with the wealth gap growing all over the wold. With the shortage of the wealth generated nationally it has been compensated by increasing debt. To stimulate the national economy , maintain the standard of living and purchasing power of the population and produce the public goods the governments at all levels and as well as the people have to use more and more borrowing. In some smaller cases, the some national or local debt problems seems possible to be resolved through austerity but there is no much understanding what to do when much bigger countries, states or segments of population are involved. For instant, only US government has accumulated two trillion US$ and does not anything to resolve the problem. There was also a hope that the wealth continued to go to the developed world attracted by the financial centers , tax havens or real estate opportunities. It works but money flow again appears to be insufficient to support the current standard of living and sustain the economic development. Moreover, it is not clear what would happen to this inflows in case of a serious crises. A part of the elite continues to be fully satisfied with the current model of the globalization. This part represents the transnational financial and other global corporations addicted to the profit maximization at any cost. Their CEOs depend on the today's profit for their positions and benefits. Their shareholders are looking to maximize the profit now. These people are not capable to look into the future. The other part of the elite, mostly family owned , is worried of the deteriorating social and economic conditions and the rise of the alternative political forces, both right and left. Most frustrating to the elite is the fact that one of the major results of the globalization has been tremendous shift of the real wealth producing manufacturing industries to China.and the rise in political, economic and ideological strength of the communist China Consequently, the later part of the elite, wants to change the current globalization model and return the wealth producing manufacturing machine back from China and other developing economies. They already have great election successes in US and UK under slogans “America first” and “ UK first”. They also like to review the current economic agreements including those under WTO which so greatly benefited China. These above election victories and the followed actions met with strong resistance from the other part of the elite addicted to the short term profit. This represents a great split of the elite which makes the whole current capitalist economic system weaker. Most likely, it is now impossible to contain China economically even with igniting a trade war as it is already equally strong and in little more than fifteen years China would be two times economically stronger than US. Unfortunately, there might be a desire of the most extreme part of the elite to contain China military. China is now much weaker military then US not speaking of NATO plus Japan. However, China has nuclear deterrence which makes any military conflict absolutely dangerous. Furthermore, Russian military power is still formidable and its position will be crucial in any military confrontation. Combined military power of China and Russia puts them at least on equal foot with US and its potential allies. After the end of the Cold War and the disintegration of the Soviet Union the West discarded Russia as a political or military power and consider it as a devoted Western puppet. It totally ignored the political and economic interests of Russia and actively promoted Russophobia in the former Soviet Republics and beyond. Actually, the Russian establishment which transferred to the West at list one trillion US$ would have been happy to become a part of the global elite. Majority of Russian oligarch moved to the West and even changed their citizenships. However, they all were treated as second class people and were threatened with confiscation and even imprisonment. Not surprisingly, a part of the Russian establishment had become patriotic. When they decided to protect Russian interests the West tried to use its economic power to force it to comply with the West orders. Ironically, anti Russian position of the West including the NATO encirclement of the Russian borders and the economic and political sanctions and pressure had the effect quite opposite to the West expectations and pushed Russia closer to China in all areas. Ideologically, however, China and Russia are on the different sides , especially as Russian Establishment abandoned socialism. So, there are some voices in the West calling for the reload of Russia -West relation in a hope that Russia distances itself from China. However, because of the continuation of the chaotic and unfriendly policy towards Russian it will continue to move closer to China in the near future. It gives China sufficient time to overcame any attempts to its economic and especially military containment.

Here in Australia I realised we don't live in a Democracy, we live in an Oligarchy. Thanks for a great show. Always good to hear from Michael Hudson.

China is developing 16:34 and positively impacts the lives of all of humanity. No bullying, no wars, no regime change, no sanctions, and no looting of sovereign national reserves. ❤❤❤😊

great analysis.

Thank you for an informative and very understandable conversation on China and the Chinese system.

Thank you for the education!

Fantastic episode looking forward to part two! Could listen to you talk all day

Excellent. Much appreciated

Japanification will not happen to China. Unlike Japan, their Central Bank is not manned by US provided/supported governor. China have all the raw materials in the world. China’s economy will adjust to the sanctions the West and Europe have given and can’t be threatened with war. Chinese products have many possible client that can use their manufacturing prowess. BRICS nation can help them whatever economic regression they currently have.

I wish I can give u guys more than 1 like. You got so many points right!

I appreciate you letting this one go beyond the hour

👏👏👏 great program 👍👍👍 😃 thank you ✌️ ...

Thank you SO MUCH for this!!! ❤

In China, you don't buy the land. You buy a 70-year renewable lease to the land.

How is BRICS countries are benefiting from the Chinese growth and prosperity?

Japanisation? Japan concentrated only on Western nations. China is expansive in its view. BRICS will give you a good idea.

Fascinating discussion, important topic. Thank you so much for a wonderful show.!

I effing love this channel lmao

Thanks for providing an objective view of what is going on inside as well as what is in store for the PRC! Pl send a reminder for the next talk show also!

Great insight.

Great discussion on these issues! Thanks Radhika, Michael and Mick!

THANK YOU .

Thanks

Excellent discussion.

I would love an historical analytical breakdown of the 5 BRICS economies to demonstrate the evolution of where we are. Pretty please...

I gather that China benefited tremendously from the Japanese experiences. The hard lessons the US taught the Japanese set precedents for the rest of global south. What’s most curious is why Japanese didn’t learn from it? Japanese are definitely very smart and extremely capable people…

japan depends only on the western markets. that is the biggest japanese problem.

Thanks 😢

HUDMAN IS GREAT!!!

1:07:46 It's not that Japan did not invest in industrial investment, it's that it stopped. See Richard Werner's "Princes of the Yen"

The Housing Bubble is not well remembered. I was kind of shocked, to see the housing prices now are not only back where they were, but even beyond that. It's looking really bad.

16:30 that's the point, people have to control the state.

I like the answers

Brilliant ❤, would love that video on China's political structure and process you talked about earlier in the piece and mentioned best for another video❤ you guys are first class knowledge and insight thankyou.🎉

Thanks y'all great show. I really enjoyed the fact that we were able to get into the weeds of the real estate. This is one of the factors that has the most impact on everyday people's lives and seeing how China is addressing that and other issues, retirement health Care labor unions etc, would be really interesting to see.

What is the USA future with 34 trillion debt?

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Thank You, Radhika Desai and Michael Hudson for inviting Mick Dunford in this discussion. I have been told and listening to the western news for the past two decade that China will collapsed. Guest what! China is still standing on high ground. One thing that I have learn from China is that their industrial transformations are so complete, from raw material to finished good. They just make things better and cheaper.

China's consumer retail spending, as far as i know, is pretty solid. It's only the big ticket item spending that needs to be spruced up. The US' economy, however, is just a house of card. Huge layoffs in the tech and banking sectors, CRE sector about to crash, artificially creating a bubble in AI (no pun intended), enormous private and public debts. All these are worse warning bells than China's own. The Global South need to brave themselves in the eventual crash of the US economy.

According to statista the asian nations will grow the most going forward. The EU is in decline.

There's still a lot of room for improve for China. China has to path out it's own unique industrial, finance, social system and foreign relationships. Western economies will still maintain a relatively stronger than the developing economies because of their past accumulated wealth, but growth and development will definitely pale comparatively.

I don't see any decline future of China as the GDP gap between the US and China is narrowing into only USD 4.5 Trillion.

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1:05:00 source? Where can I find such data for other countries?

Michael Hudson touched on a very important point on why China will not fall prey to the Japanese economic disease. In the 1980s, the property bubble in Japan was so huge that Tokyo's Imperial Palace was worth more than the whole of California! Golf club membership could cost US$3 million.

Speaking to the topic of future technologies, we see the strength of the Chinese approach with their government led shift towards electric cars (and renewables and battery development along side this). EV sales in China are now up to 40%. The whole of China's car fleet will be electrified over the coming years. China has also suddenly become a mass exporter of its own cars, after many years working on collaboration with foreign car brands. But this seeming sudden shift is the result of many years of planning by government (helping to guide and facilitate the private sector's growth). Of course, western countries, having neglected to push their industry to make this necessary shift, are now crying about Chinese car imports impacting their own manufacturers. So, in the middle of a crisis of global warming, caused primarily by western governments being controlled by the fossil fuel industry, we have the one country really doing something about being accused of 'breaking the rules'. Absurd.

China is very close to a Neo Platonian "Republic" in that one can have wealth or power but never both.

I do not think the falling real estate prices have hit smaller cities in China as much as larger cities. Of course, the prices did not go as much in smaller cities. Also, the real estate owners in larger cities are wealthier than in smaller cities. The negative wealth effect has been lower for them than for the average buyer. I saw an interesting RU-vid video a few months ago that covered this topic. My understanding is that, in smaller cities, this down turn is actually viewed as a potential future buying opportunity. I know that, if I were living in China right now, that is how I would view it. There are some really nice smaller cities in China.

Look at it from the perspective of each country's GDP compositions: 1. U.S. GDP comprises mostly of finance, real estate, services and consumer spending; while 2. China's GDP relies on the strengthening of its industrial developments and outputs plus technological advancements. Even real estate was shunned when Xi Jinping degreed that homes are for living, not speculating. There's no contest here. And that's why the U.S. is so afraid of China, even more so than Russia with its nuclear arsenal that can destroy the U.S. several hundred times over.

I was woundering what ever happened to the Evergrand bubble. I have the same queries that Proffessor Hudson has.... The curiosity was inspired by reading "Killing the Host", how whacked out the housing market in the US is as demostrated by how hard it is to remain housed. How to get credible answers for queries like these?

I always look forward to the two famous economists, who offer A HUMANE HONEST LOOK AT THE DISASTERS WESTERN COUNTRIES CALL ECONOMIES. Ive Followed Michael Hudson, the group of MMT economists like Randall Wray, Steph Kelton, and our Australian connection Bill Mitchell. I've also followed a few others for single area economic-tech perspectives. One of the most enlightening economists is Richard Werner, esp' who creates credit and esp' on Japan and the washington concensus. Anyhow great work and thankyou to Mike Dunford for on the ground knowledge of Chinese economics for the last 3 decades or so. Im probably encroaching on future shows of yours if I ask about the BRI AND BRICS-plus, but that looks like where, Not only China, but the rest (the majority) of the developing world will find its new customers ie growth in future. Historically, ie after WW2, USA took advantage of a destroyed Europe to grow its economy and then by establishing the petro-dollar after 1971, to dominate the globe ( except for USSR & CHINA) the latter two were deliberately kept out until 1979 for China.

Great detailed discussion on the factors behind China's economy. I believe technology will play an ever increasing role in their economy, and this will take careful investment. This investment will be far more productive than other countries, to the extent that it is forcing even the US to change their priorities to not fall behind.

Just consideriing on the supply side of the Chinese economy, one can see it outpaces the rest of the world to step onto another stage of growth.

Your knowledge of China scares me a little! 1. Explains that in China people's life is above everything else, human rights 2. Houses are for living in, not for frying 3. China's economy is transforming...

Algorithm

italy from 0.5 to 7? maybe in nominal, can't do that with purshing power with printed money

Resources that a country HAS is the most important thing…. Money is secondary because money is not a real resource. Taxes don’t fund things Taxes are a brake or gas pedal to control wealth gaps and inflation Taxes are necessary to DRIVE the currency in the country/economy

Borrowers and lenders are doing opposite favors for eachother; one gets to make money off money, the other gets to live above their means. Similarly, net exporters and net importers are doing opposite favors for each other; one gets to access demand they don't have, the other gets to access supply they don't have. I don't think its possible to put greater or lesser moral weight on either end of these deals. They are both mutual dependencies. The only problem is not being able to reverse course. At some point, the borrower must live below their means in order to pay off debt, and those with money must stop living off money and start working, net exporters must become net consumers, and net consumers must export. Only then is the trade complete: we have done something for you, and you have done something of equal value for us. It is absolutely incumbent on both parties to reverse course in a COORDINATED fashion. Otherwise, they will revert to war.

A good discussion but the covid analysis was shallow and unsatisfactory imo. Individual human rights and freedoms. . the Power of the State v the individual human right of bodily autonomy - Radikha. You brushed it away like some dust under the carpet.

Bump.

China is doing what matters to the country holistically.