When Will China Invade Taiwan? 

This video has been available on Nebula since July 7th! Sign up to Nebula to watch other early, exclusive, and Original videos like my exclusive series China, Actually. Get 40% an annual subscription here: go.nebula.tv/polymatter

I've been living in Taiwan all summer and the sharp increase in videos on Taiwan in the last 3 months has been noticeable at the very least

As a Taiwanese, I thank videos like these to raise awareness about our situation. I hope we never go to war. Too easy for people without anything at stake to talk whatever shit they want just to sound smart. It's way more tougher to stay alive and prosperous while surrounded by a hostile "neighbor", along with an ambiguous, opportunist "friend". If you want to see what Taiwanese people are up against, just go through the comment thread under this post. I hope yall have a good day, good life, and never need to face the possibilities of war.

your channel n videos help me learned more about history thanks for your researched.

I’m sick of seeing these charts showing Chinese vs US Navy fleet vessel counts. It’s not about numbers with ships it’s about tonnage and armaments😂

I don't think people realize how difficult Taiwan is to take.

There's a well-known saying ' attacking Taiwan is less wiser than buying Taiwan, buying Taiwan is less wiser than deceiving Taiwanese and deceiving Taiwanese is less wiser than intimidating Taiwanese ' that is widely circulates in Chinese communities. It has been regarded as the best guiding principle by Chinese communists that subduing the enemy without real fighting and now they are committed to launching the cognitive battles and develop the nets of the collaborators in Taiwan.

Super insightive video

This is an excellent video. Actual nuance in a RU-vid story.

A small correction about the party control timeline. While the DPP did win the presidential election (for the first time), the Kuomintang still had control over the legislature, heavily limiting the power of the DPP. You can see the difference in 2016 when they won both the presidency and the legislature and started doing actions they have been talking about for a long time.

This is a really good video that offers a lot of valuable context and coolheaded analysis. A key factor it didn't discuss, however, was Hong Kong. Hong Kong was held up for a while as a model of how Taiwan could peacefully integrate without losing its democratic freedoms. One country two systems could easily become one country three systems, however, the brutal repression of Hong Kong has done a lot to deter Taiwanese interest in integration and put China on a path to either war or defeat.

Very good and informative video as usally. Only these imperial units are super confusing.

This topic has been on my mind a lot and this channel has a really special perspective! Thanks from Utah for staying vigilant. :)

Taiwan is best used within China as a talking point to get people riled up with nationalism. It distracts from many domestic issues (housing, youth unemployment, 3 years of lockdowns, poverty, human trafficking, corruption/gangs affiliated with gov/police, etc.). Bringing up Taiwan and doing military drills shows the people the full might, resolve, and invincibility of the Chinese government, so people continue to have confidence in their rule. Yet each of those domestic systematic issues and the goal of Taiwan unification remain unsolved. Do not get it wrong where I mentioned poverty and unemployment, China is the 2nd largest economy for a reason. However the CPC only needs its current between 3-500 million of its 1.4 billion population to be middle class or above and thus complacent in their rule. 500 million being well off is enough for some foreigners to be convinced poverty isn’t a thing there, yet 900 million remain. Another means for CPC to continue governing in perpetuity. Actually starting this war changes everything as it will hurt the 500 million middle class, and induces unneeded risk to the CPC maybe not looking invincible on the battle field and consequently in public opinion. This is what’s most dangerous to CPC rule, public confidence. Therefore, most likely status quo until (if) CPC is so in danger domestically that it must start this war to get back some patriotism and support. Until then when CPC and DPP are both in power: strong sounding yet non-action vague threats against Taiwan separatists and American imperialists, continued military drills, and sending money to every foreign diplomat for preaching “One China”. That’s all that’s needed by China on the Taiwan issue. For Taiwanese political parties, two sides to preserve status quo: 1. KMT (Blue; same party that got kicked off the mainland, then brainwashed Taiwanese for decades to hate the communists, and promised to retake the mainland): Yell "long live the ROC", "Oppose Taiwan Independence", swear by 1992 Consensus where they get to say "ROC is real China" within Taiwan, yet no longer pursue retaking the mainland or eliminating the PRC. They promote zero "ROC" when they're out on international trips, and are complacent in the PRC being the one internationally recognized China that still pursues eradicating the ROC. KMT can frame this as peaceful, while they're nowhere close to equal footing with the PRC when talking "One China". Many voters interpret this as spineless, in no man's land, and have abandoned the old soldiers and brainwashed Taiwanese that believed they'd retake the mainland; yet they still have a significant voter base. PRC prefers this of course. Trade, tourism, and official dialogue opens; less military drills. Peaceful in the sense no one dies, as well as with optics. 2. DPP (Green; known for its extremist faction that would declare independence and likely cause PRC to launch the war immediately; though the majority faction (in power today) still believes in peace with their own terms): Push internationally for understanding and acknowledgement of the very existance of ROC, which rules over Taiwan/Kinmen/Penghu/Matsu. Sure it is not compatible with "One China", yet it reflects the fact that there really still are Two Chinas, that have each done fine on their own for 70+ years, and the ROC does not actively destabilize regional peace by threatening to eliminate PRC (i.e. civilized). Push for ROC to have equal footing with PRC when resolving differences diplomatically. Of course it's a non-starter for PRC to engage/legitimize ROC on equal footing, but it's not outright independence declaration. PRC can't start a full war but will make for minimal/no diplomatic channels or tourism, less trade, more military drills and antagonization. Still peaceful in the sense no one dies, not so much with optics.

Excellent presentation with insight to the what ifs!

Just wanted to note that the sponsor Nebula is fantastic, even if it's a bit slow at times. Lots of interesting content that is well made.

Interesting how over youtube's life the titles go from "Could China ever invade Taiwan" To "WHEN will China invade Taiwan" 👀

I feel like not enough emphasis is put on the abject failure of “one country, two systems” and the breaking of the Sino-British treaty, big reasons why the idea of peaceful unification went out the window. It’s basically impossible for Beijing to convince Taiwan of anything unless the government changes trajectory rapidly.

It seems unjust that these events are often presented as isolated incidents without any explanation of their underlying causes. I'm genuinely curious about the motivations behind the positive and negative actions taken during the KMT and DPP timelines. After all, there's almost always a cause driving every effect, and it's unreasonable to make evluations of intent without expanding on the topic even if its brief.

This was an amazing video.

Another excellent product of quality research and presentation.

Great video but I really wish you'd do more of a conclusion rather than just go straight into the nebula promo but I get why you do it. Videos always feel like they end so abruptly, I get whiplash

let's hope this never happens

I was expecting to be really frustrated by this video but it was actually done well. Nice

This is a very interesting and thought-provoking video about the possible scenarios of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. I appreciate the analysis and insights from the experts and commentators, as well as the historical and geopolitical context provided by the video. I think this is a very important and complex issue that affects not only the people of Taiwan and China, but also the regional and global stability and security. I hope that the tensions can be resolved peacefully and diplomatically, and that the rights and interests of all parties can be respected and protected. I also hope that the international community can play a constructive role in supporting dialogue and cooperation, and preventing conflict and violence. Thank you for making this video and sharing it with us. 👍🏻😊

Lol the amount of "when will China invite Taiwan" videos I've seen the last few months from various RU-vidrs

I love your content. Keep the great work 💪🆙

Watching this situation play out is an endless source of frustration.

I teach English to students in China and there's an aspect of this that Evan has mentioned before, but didn't come up in this video and bears repeating: Much of what Xi says about foreign policy is the equivalent of campaigning, if he had to stand for election. He's better at some things than others, but one thing he is absolute Jedi-level master at, is bundling his own agenda with national patriotism. With this in mind, a case could be made that neither the construction of the model in the desert, nor the release of the video showing how it was attacked, were intended for non-domestic consumption.

I am Taiwanese, just here to say that we hear all kinds of rumors pretty often, we are sore of those discussions, and we all know it's not happening too soon unless the Chinese lose their minds. Other problems are still present in mainland China, so it's not a good timing. Also, Taiwan is too crucial in the chip industry for them to afford, because they will also be affected once our chip manufacturing halts. Since the US is already banning chip manufacturing equipment from exporting to China, if we stop making chips, China will likely be the one affected the most. Also, the most effective way to make Taiwan surrender might be announcing our nearby seas as missile test sites. Since our energy relies heavily on coal imports and our economy on chip exports, with no ships willing to take the risk to enter our sea, we will probably surrender because we can't survive on our own.

13:28 "Having a larger, stronger military is useful whether or not it fights" Is also very true for Taiwan. A couple of things that Former President Ma did during his presidency were 1. Reduce conscription from 1 year to 4 months. On the surface, it just seemed like an easy policy to win young people over. However, the more insidious intent could be to make Taiwanese army, on average, less experienced and less ready to fight. 2. Uproot *ALL* intelligence services undercover in China. This is more obviously a stupid policy and want to weaken Taiwan. Even if China isn't aggressive, it would be necessary to have eyes on neighboring countries, especially if it is stronger. That's just how small countries can survive. 16:57 Also very true that Taiwan is under psychological warfare. Every so often I see disinformation and fact-check/clarification statements from the government flying around in social media. A lot of those misinformation and disinformation are most likely originated from China. The main idea is always to create distrust between the civilians and the government. This is to make civilians unwilling to cooperate once if China decide to invade. Nothing is harder to work with than a disobedient general public.

One issue tho is that military hardware and ammunition don't have an infinite shelf-life. If China is going to commit to such high levels of war material production they have to have a plan to use it, if not for just the sake of internal or regional defense which I find to be unlikely. Power projection on a worldwide level is not a cheap thing to undertake, neither is expending all branches of a countries armed forces simultaneously while investing in a space program, stealth fighter programs, propulsion research and drone warfare. One might say it's to increase foreign export sales but we all know the Chinese don't have a lot of customers lining up to buy their stuff. One might also point out that China is pumping out unproven military hardware at an unsustainable rate, and without a solid plan to put any of it to real-world use would be a very bad investment. Yes, large militaries make a country look strong. It also makes a huge difference when it comes to who the military higher-ups want to be in charge of their nations economy and foreign policy. However no nation can print money from nothing, and no nation...not even one as dishonest towards outsiders as China...can just keep producing more and more military hardware that then ends up largely out of commission from a focus on production over maintainence because numbers are what gets the bonuses and praise. It's something that played a large role in the eventual downfall of the soviet union and if China doesn't backtrack it to some degree they're going to be in a similar boat sooner or later...assuming they don't invade Taiwan before all those shiny new tanks and destroyers rust away 1st.

This certainly sounds good too, but I think its still worth considering more reliable options like traditional businesses such as cannafarm ltd, for example.

It would be difficult to invade Taiwan. Much more difficult for China to invade Taiwan than for Russia to invade Ukraine. Since Taiwan is an island, this means that China’s ground forces are limited to whatever air and sea transport are available. Both of which would be vulnerable to either GBAD or anti-ship missiles/submarines respectively. Chinese combat aviation also has to have the numbers to confront Taiwan, the USA, and possibly Japan. While also being powerful and numerous enough to deter Indian and Vietnamese forces from taking advantage of the situation. Many Chinese commenters have high confidence in the accuracy of their cruise missiles to hit and disable Taiwanese airfields. However, even if their confidence is well placed, there are questions about Chinese stockpiles of those expensive missiles . As demonstrated in Ukraine, simply hitting an airfield is not enough to prevent combat sorties. You need to hit the airfield repeatedly until you take the airfield or destroy all the combat aviation.

When he said sponsored by china I was so flustered, like it can't be a joke am I on the right channel 😆.

I think the only timeline China has is when they are 100% sure that they can invade Taiwan successfully, they will invade; however, the timeline is not 100% set and China definitely does not want to send money and troops to the battlefield. This is the worst investment to China's POV. Peaceful unification with spending the least amount of bucks is what China's aiming for.

if you prepare for a sprint and end up in a marathon, I am not sure if you will get to last to the end

I always find the comment about how one can't know how good the PRC military is because it hasn't fought a major war since 1979 a bit disingenuous, because it is never applied to everyone else in East or South East Asia, for whom the same claim is also true. The South Korean military hasn't fought in major war since Vietnam. Japan hasn't fought anything since 1945. ROC forces haven't also fought any major engagements since the 1950's, really. And yet their ability to fight is never questioned in the same manner.

When he said “sponsored by China Actually” I was like 😳😳😳😳😳

You are obsessed with china I don’t know any other RU-vid channel with this much obsession 😅 btw your content is amazing ❤❤

"敢于斗争" means "dare to fight" in English. "斗争" implies fighting or conflict. A term like "奋斗" is more commonly used for "struggle" in the sense of overcoming adversity or some internal force; the most (in)famous example being the Chinese translation of "Mein Kampf."

Love your vids! Keep them coming!!

The more I learn about Taiwan, the place it has found in the world economy and global politics as well as the simple realities of a invasion the more I understand that 'when' is putting the cart before the horse and the key question is 'if'. Because even in ideal conditions, a Chinese invasion would be hard to pull of with a high chance of total military failure, but realistically a invasion would be extremely hard with a immense chance of national disaster.

This is a text-book prisoners' dilemma. Both China and US prefer peace, but they are more afraid of losing a war. Neither can trust the other to not prepare for war. Therefore, both will prepare for war. As both side building up militariy capabilties, hostilities escalate and the prospect of war become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Mutual destruction will be the most likely outcome.

Tremendous insights

It's funny to see "deterrence" used in this context

Is it just me or does this feel like the 500th video produced on this topic, in the past year?

Seeing how it goes, China has been threatening invasion and throwing red lines all over the place for decades now and they didn't invade. But if the CCP says "We'll never invade we love Taiwan Taiwan is a country :)" that's when people should get real worried

Nebula looks great!

While I understand what you’re saying - I lived in China from 2004-2006. China in its current and economic and social circumstance, with Xi as it’s leader is not the same as prior administrations. That said, I don’t feel this is imminent - but the likelihood increases with decoupling and deepening social/economic/political troubles/crises.

TLDW: The best approach for Taiwan and the US is to keep calm and carry on.

Wow, incredibly level-headed. Great job!

That fake building for military exercises is the state equivalent of a woodoo doll

Bro, in two weeks I’m moving to Taiwan. Don’t scare me like that. XD

As a American, I believe in the One China Policy, BUT only in under one condition… One China should be the People’s Republic of China NOT Republic of China.

Could you do a video on the Venezuela and Guyana dispute?

0:54 I was about to say that it reminded me of Kijong-dong...

Whether or not the CCP is genuinely planning an invasion, the US needs to continue supplying Taiwan with deterrence capabilities, making conflict even less appeasing than it already is. There are three main strategic fields that Taiwan must prioritize: The readiness and capabilities of ground forces; The needed equipment to counter the initial PRC air dominance in the early days of the war (delaying long enough for US forces to engage); And finally, countering PRC naval capabilities, making it so Taiwan can deter any attempted naval landings (utilizing anti-ship missiles and other equipment). If the PRC fails to gain aerial superiority, it is practically impossible to create a beachhead without heavy casualties. However, if the US fails to act, Taiwan will fall.

The problem for the PRC is that if they invaded, they would have to bare the full risks of a war with the United States. US friendly nations and allies (most of which who would cease business with China), account for approximately 50% - 60% of Chinese exports, and give or take 30% - 35% of Chinese imports. Such an economic blow would be impossible to recover from. The US and the West would take a significant financial hit, but will fair far better than China will. They will lose a lot of business in the short term, but with the right maneuvering, they will be able to relocate a lot of their business to such nations as India. Not to mention the deaths of millions, excluding the use of nuclear weapons. I think that all this points towards political rallying, creating a distraction from the failures China has suffered in recent years, which would make any leader in the CCP's position question if they have as strong of a hold on the country as they thought, given the ongoing cases of civil unrest in the nation.

all depends on how the China-US economy stalemate plays out. if you keep on closing the gap between you and your opponent in economy and military as it has been for the past decade, time is always on your side. however, whether China can keep this trend or not has its uncertainties. that points to the statement at 6:31 being wrong. China's best hope is keep acquiring more substantial military assets than the US with military expenditure at lower % of GDP thanks to higher purchasing parity and closing tech gap. As long as it continues, the US will have to provoke really hard for a war or face the inevitable inability to defend Taiwan.

I’d like to check the nebula contents. It is the first time I ever see someone else say they think China’s censorship becomes both more and less strict. This actually happened for a while. 😂

I do feel like Americans are a little bit too certain about war after Ukraine. It’s important to understand war would be economically disastrous for China. Not to say it’s impossible, but as of now China can’t win easily and war would be against china’s interests.

I saw a documentary which explained Taiwan's extremely vital role in the world's computer microchip production, (China is being removed from benefitting) America could never give up Taiwan to China at this point

If the general’s memo is for internal, then he probably views it as true. The argument that the fear mongering is for funding would mean they would take a tougher tone externally than internally.

Can't you make the long story short? When???

The main rationale in I've read in most discussions about an invasion hinges on how committed China is to annexing Taiwan. If they really do have it as their highest level goal then that leads to a question of timing. And the window for invasion will never be more open then in the next few years.

IF more than When.

14:15 Well, I don't know about that. I mean, what's prohibiting from each and any general then to claim war is imminent each month of each year till 2049 and beyond? I mean, since you can't "rule out" ANY day of the year China might invade, the logical conclusion of this line of thought is that it would be a real scandal every time any day was omitted. If 2023 is seen as "realistic" - we're already more then half passed this - then any other date could be seen as realistic as well. So you could come up with ANY date at all, and it would always be a real scandal if you would not say it's possible? Makes no sense. Then NO predictions for a given year are necessary anymore, just say "any date is possible" and you'll always be right without needing another headline.

There are more mentions in this video of Nebula than the China / Taiwan topic...

"We will have Taiwan!" "When will we have Taiwan?" "To gulag with you!" Somewhere in ccp politburo, probably

The Normandy invasion was the most difficult military undertaking done by the world's most powerful alliance at that time. Now imagine doing it crossing a larger body of water, with lesser warships, without air superiority, against the greatest Navy in the worlr, against highly trained, motivated and well-equipped defenders, against a hostile population and govt backed by the greatest military power the world has ever seen who is equally backed by the most powerful set of all allies around the world, with your population shrinking and most of your economic needs imported, all these challenges and you do it ALONE. Mind you, this is just invasion. Occupation is far far more difficult. No, China is never invading.

Okay but its an insane shame that the phrase "dare to fight" has such a negative association to it because holy hell thats a raw line

RealLifeLore, Wendover and now you in a span of 15 minutes

We may not know when and if China will invade Taiwan, but there is a lot of semiconductor investment taking place outside the island now !

2:57 This video is sponsored by China, actually... is what I heard and I got really confused for a good second

If only we had a detailed an analysis of the Ukraine-Russia situation. This is helpful to have in the files in regards to the situation around China.

does polymatter actually speak/read chinese? just curious

Even though "90% of the world's largest ships transit through the Taiwan Strait" the alternative route does not necessarily involve taking the longer route through Indonesia. After all, having passed through the true chokepoint of the Strait of Malacca, northbound ships could sail to the east of Taiwan. Or are you assuming that closing the Taiwan Strait would necessarily involve blockade of the Strait of Malacca?

PolyMatter videos are always fire.

Can you make a video on the border crisis between India and china???

As a Chinese mainlander, I hope there’ll be no war between the two sides. However, sometimes certain things are very difficult to prevent and can be quite inevitable.

It's kinda like a guy glaring at another guy and putting both of his fists up to roll them around like a boxer And the saddest thing is the vast majority of America literally won't care because our politics are only concerned with the most impossibly vain unimportant dribble baby shit possible.

Watched this on Nebula but still wanted to leave a comment for the algorithm 👍

I hope the war never happens.

This discussion always gravitates towards geopolitical chess between Beijing and DC. "What do the actual humans of Taiwan want for themselves?" never seems to come up. I'm curious about what the answer to that actually is. Given the 3x disparity in per capita GDP I have a guess...

Ambiguity has to be exploited either way. More weapons to Taiwan, more focus on the South China Sea. It works in reverse too, and is just as required. Then again everyone thought Russia invading Ukraine would never happen and was crazy... except for the USA which go it right.

1:14 nauru mentioned!

awww man nebula grrrrr 😭😭😭 ill guess i have to sub eventually lmao

The problem I see that is holding China back is three fold: 1. They lack the transports necessary to attempt this invasion, it's why the action has been referred to as the "Million Man Swim". As it stands most of China's fleet is short range ships that lack the ferrying capacity to actually conduct this invasion. They simply can't get enough soldiers across the water to get there. 2. A significant amount of China's oil comes via a single pipe in the Indian Ocean with the rest being shipped through a single waterway. It would take a minute fraction of the US navy to camp out over that pipe or restrict access through the straight to China to cut off the majority of China's oil. 3. Ukraine. The successful defense of Ukraine coupled with the widescale sanctions & boycotts have demonstrated to China that they are not guaranteed victory and the price of the effort will likely cripple them. Russia can weather the storm to an extent but China's economy is far more reliant on the international market. They would essentially doom themselves. Could they still invade? Sure. Will it be successful? Probably not. But at least in this way we can see the few things that are likely holding China back.

If this continues, i might have to get involved.

David Montagne on substack said it would occur on April 12th 2024. We will see

From some recent interview to China citizens, reunification war is hugely unpopular because most of citizens don't believe that they need a war between two Han races for that. So if they need to do a war, they have to do it very fast before civilians responded.

Well let's just hope that the failure of the Ukraine War has put off China from invading Taiwan, especially considering that amphibious landings are one of the most difficult operations to execute.

Both cases of chinese plan are true. China does not want a war, wars are costly. They'd rather install a puppet regime and integrate them through that process. However if they can't install a puppet regime war is more profittable for them in the long run than waiting them out. Specifically now more than ever since they have lots of problems in their future which will stem mainly from their population collapse. Once they reach that stage (about 2050) they can't take Taiwan. So they have a window of opportunity. Either install a puppet regime, invade them or never be able to capture taiwan. Why would they announce it to people? No amount of stealth technology would prevent adversaries from spotting the collection of forces around taiwan. Russia's attempt to hide it was seen for months called out weeks before. So there is no down side. But why announce it? because it benefits their wolf diplomacy. It makes them look strong to their people. It has the downside of putting a time limit but there is already a ticking bomb (population collapse). Can they win this invasion? Depends on western intervention and how far they want to go but if they have learnt their lessons from russia's failed invasion, it's to level the fuck out of taiwan's each military installation and decision making body before any attempt is launched. Which means yes they can succesfully hit ground but holding is a different topic. It'd be the afghanistan of china though more likely end in success than a literal invasion of afghanistan. This shouldn't even be a possible scenario. Even if this damages their economy, it would damage world economy so much more because of microchips. TSMC produces 70-90% of the high performing chips.

Isn't this military exercise called Zhu Rihe held every year?

PolyMatter: Sponsored by “CHINA” 2:46 Me: WTF PolyMatter: “-Actually” Me: 😅

China's obsession over that particular piece of land is just meaningless. Pakistan's obsession over the Kashmir ruined them. Once a much more prosperous nation than India, is now begging in the world stage for financial aid. India knew that a similar obsession would cost them. So, they always tried to maintain a ceasefire. Conquering Taiwan has more cons than pros for China. They're simply underestimating the world's reaction if they would invade Taiwan. It's simply not worth it.

Thanks for making these videos rising the problems we're facing daily. As a citizen currently in my 20s, the era of rapidly changing "friendliness" of PRC consists almost whole of my life. I never thought of anyone out of Taiwan could fully understand the fear and other matters we're up against, since its really a special situation; but if you are in those parts undergoing similar conflicts, I wish for your best luck, and if you are reading this, also thanks for giving a little care. Why not go check out comments and replies of this video's comment section? Maybe these Simplified Chinese comments cant let you have a grasp of how we are viewed as "traitors", "dogs", and other nasty things, simply due to the fact that we THINK we're an independent country. But after all you can't really blame them, when thats whats their education taught them, also what there whole society have in mind.

6:31 Isn't that the rabbit from *Cat Sh1t One* ?

"Sponsored by China..." me: huh? "...Actually" me: phew