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Why Did the U.S. Send Only 3000 Troops to Counter Russia in Ukraine? A Game Theory 101 Investigation 

William Spaniel
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Check out my new book "What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War? (And How Will It End?)". It brings together the ideas from my recent video series into a coherent narrative. The digital version is out now available at amzn.to/3HY5aqW. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (These are affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. Even if you read it for free, you are still supporting the channel.) Physical edition coming soon!
Due to the recent events in Ukraine, the United States mobilized about 3000 soldiers, sending them to Poland and Romania. They pale in comparison to the estimated 130,000 soldiers Russia has lined up around Ukraine. If Russia were to use Ukraine as a stepping stone to move further west, the 3000 troops would stand no chance. So why didn't the U.S. send more?
The answer is tripwires. Those soldiers will be the first casualties of war, and force the United States to respond. Internalizing the credible threat of retribution, Russia would not want to advance any further.
This video describes how tripwire mechanisms work, discussing a historical example of West Berlin during the Cold War and connecting the idea to modern-day crisis bargaining theory.
The photo of the soldiers lined up from the Bundesarchiv and is licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 DE: creativecommons.org/licenses/...
The photo of the Soviet Congress is licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0 International: creativecommons.org/licenses/...

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4 май 2024

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Комментарии : 6 тыс.   
@Spinikar
@Spinikar 2 года назад
Well, after two months of war in Ukraine, I feel like 3000 US troops was actually overkill.
@akhsdenlew1861
@akhsdenlew1861 2 года назад
lol i wrote the exact same comment before reading yours
@mickelodiansurname9578
@mickelodiansurname9578 Год назад
I think the red line is pretty much in the suburbs of Moscow these days. The blue line is now yellow and blue and kicking the shit out of the red line!
@TheRezro
@TheRezro Год назад
This video make one bad assessment. Polish military has 120 thousand man personel (actually trained one, not shitty conscripts) and they main job is to delay Russia, before reinforcements arrive. Most of US personel in Poland operate on advanced weapons like Patriots and Abrams. Despite what Trump babbling, Europe doesn't need defense. Those are systematic defense operations. Though tripwire argument is also true, they aren't expected to die.
@fearlessfruge6445
@fearlessfruge6445 Год назад
I come away from this that NATO is willing to sell out Ukraine and a sizeable portion of eastern Europe for peace and cheap energy, am I wrong ?
@TheRezro
@TheRezro Год назад
@@fearlessfruge6445 NATO is not just Germany and France (or even US). Putin facepalmed forgetting that smaller nations actually hold collectively proportionally sizable power on West.
@a.presneill
@a.presneill Год назад
It appears shocking now, over 200 days into this war at how far west those lines are being drawn. If anyone think Russia could take and hold even the smallest amount of NATO territory then they haven’t been paying attention at all.
@ephraimwolobah9152
@ephraimwolobah9152 Год назад
I always come back to these videos to chuckle at the prediction vs reality.
@cultugarvealgarve7380
@cultugarvealgarve7380 Год назад
Machines and air superiority, seems nowadays more important, as we can see.
@ClemDiamond
@ClemDiamond Год назад
@@cultugarvealgarve7380 Air superiority is king as of right now, but you must maintain it. We have seen in recent conflicts that Russia isn't able to keep air superiority to the crushing capability it is supposed to have but NATO seems to. A single man with a MANPAD has become the fear of the russian plan. From war reports, it seems artillery is still the main player in battle and strategic deployment.
@cultugarvealgarve7380
@cultugarvealgarve7380 Год назад
@@ClemDiamond yes indeed, mafia was never known for organizing armies, sciene or univerrsities etc.
@JohnYoo39
@JohnYoo39 Год назад
Never forget, people (including Russia) thought their military was actually properly armed. They weren't.
@spondoolie6450
@spondoolie6450 2 года назад
NATO is made of 30 countries and most of the troops are already in Europe. I’ll never understand why ppl think “the West” or “NATO” only means USA.
@svendbosanvovski4241
@svendbosanvovski4241 2 года назад
Technically you are right. But those other NATO countries are only in their because the US is, and it calls the shot.
@olkredesign2410
@olkredesign2410 Год назад
because USA defend budget is bigger then all other countries together, thats why
@jsharps1000
@jsharps1000 Год назад
@@olkredesign2410 that isn't to mention that it is an American led alliance.
@paullakowski2509
@paullakowski2509 Год назад
@@jsharps1000 BULLIED NOT LED
@jsharps1000
@jsharps1000 Год назад
@@paullakowski2509 no I think i described it correctly. sorry we aren't Russian here bud.
@tadghsmith1457
@tadghsmith1457 2 года назад
It is incredible to me how badly this video has aged. As recently as two months ago the author thought Russia had the capability to invade most of Eastern Europe. Not meaning to pick on him, most so called “expert” opinion seemed to think Russia really was that powerful.
@rogerbrownreacts8528
@rogerbrownreacts8528 2 года назад
I’m laughing at it now. 3000 could hold off all the Russians
@koboldparty4708
@koboldparty4708 2 года назад
@@rogerbrownreacts8528 3000 Multi-Ethnic soldiers of Biden.
@rogerbrownreacts8528
@rogerbrownreacts8528 2 года назад
@@koboldparty4708 Biden Who ?
@Cybersharky_
@Cybersharky_ 2 года назад
@@koboldparty4708 Degenerate
@FredLo44
@FredLo44 2 года назад
Bruh was just about to say the same thing especially when he said those soldiers “don’t stand a chance”. Russian propaganda was that good. Had us believing they could take over Poland and Romania at the same time lol.
@flock9487
@flock9487 2 года назад
Imagine being one of those 3000 troops hearing this guy on RU-vid saying you’re just there to die 😂
@abbynady
@abbynady 2 года назад
That's reality fact.
@topnotchvideos3428
@topnotchvideos3428 2 года назад
That's funny
@fox1actual
@fox1actual 2 года назад
They already know that that’s what they are. They aren’t ignorant to that reality.
@DonPeyote420
@DonPeyote420 2 года назад
I think they know what's up
@spookyentertainment6079
@spookyentertainment6079 2 года назад
a friend of mine is there right now in romania
@DanielManea
@DanielManea 2 года назад
It seems everyone forgets that Poland and Romania also have troops. About 200k together. Not to mention that the other EU countries could react quickly as well and some have nuclear weapons.
@bjorntorlarsson
@bjorntorlarsson 2 года назад
No, you are wrong. It is important that you realize this. All Western countries have spent 30 years demilitarizing themselves. NATO has no ability at all to resist a Russian invasion. We are only lucky that Putin has no such intentions at all.
@DanielManea
@DanielManea 2 года назад
@@bjorntorlarsson Of course, considering how strong Russia is, such an economic powerhouse that would certainly resist without exports not starving. It happened in the past.
@NoVisionGuy
@NoVisionGuy 2 года назад
@@bjorntorlarsson NATO has US, UK, CAN, FRA. USA alone could resist Russian invasion against NATO members.
@Bob10009
@Bob10009 2 года назад
@@bjorntorlarsson You are so far from correct, it’s hilarious. Russia is a shadow of its former military might. The EU nations alone would tear Putin a new one, even before American forces arrive (late as always) to mop up.
@bjorntorlarsson
@bjorntorlarsson 2 года назад
​@@Bob10009 1,000 French officers the other year wrote an open letter to Emanuelle macron (you know, he who is married with his 25 years older school teacher and who has a stepson who is older than himself), calling him a traitor for having abolished the last of the French army. Haven't you heard that the French army got totally beaten up by a gang of unarmed nomads in Mali last week, and fled in panic? Mali government has hired "The Wagner Group", Russian privateers, to fight for them instead. You shall see, and the jihadists are soon no more in Mali. Germany has no military at all. One of the two US soldiers there called their boy scouts "parasiting back packers". If you meet him, one of the two US soldiers that serve in Germany, ask him yourself what he thinks about the ability of the pretend-to-be German army. They have no navy and no air force either. How many armored divisions can the US air lift to Europe within the week they have until the Russians hit the Atlantic coast? And would they even try after they have detonated a nuke in the middle of the Atlantic? "Come on now", like the demented president says (while Putin plays ice hockey with his defense minister). Get real and accept the facts. The 1990s is over. Russia is the only great power in Europe. ALL European want to have it that way, else they wouldn't have deliberately created this situation during the last 30 years.
@Tommy0145
@Tommy0145 Год назад
It's extremely interesting to look at past video's, even before the war started, and seeing people's analysis. And how it turned out (for) now...
@dentoon55
@dentoon55 2 года назад
There are more than 40000 Nato Soldiers in East Europe, with over 130 fighter jets, 200 ships, Attack helecopters, In Norway there is a big nato navy " training" they are only a day away. then you have the polish army 100 000 soldiers, the hongarian army, the romania army, ... America has another 10 000 soldiers in Germany only a 1000 / 2000 KM away. In Europe all counties are training and preparing extra divisions that can react quickle. I don't think the 3000 amarican soldiers have to fight the whole rusian army allone. At this moment they are a small part of the Nato Troops in East Europe.
@tmilesffl
@tmilesffl 2 года назад
America has almost 100K military in Europe
@justADeni
@justADeni 2 года назад
@AG TaNGrA *winning :)
@justADeni
@justADeni 2 года назад
@AG TaNGrA also their active army is 300k strong + territorial defense
@randomcat9314
@randomcat9314 2 года назад
@AG TaNGrA your comment aged quite badly didn't it
@ianhinrichsendrummer2113
@ianhinrichsendrummer2113 Год назад
@@randomcat9314 hehe.... 👍🏻🙂
@wardboy814
@wardboy814 2 года назад
Crazy how in 96 I was playing youth football with Russians from Moscow area in a thing called friendship through football. They came here. Usa. And we went there also. Was a different time for sure but I imagine alot of them guys are in Russian military as we're many of my friends. Crazy how diplomatic shit can kill a friendship and then have each other eventually on a battlefield 25 yrs later. Just has me thinking what's really right and morality.
@DerDop
@DerDop 2 года назад
Common Russians have nothing to do with escalation. You'll find more Putin fans in Hungary or Africa than in Russia.
@wardboy814
@wardboy814 2 года назад
@@DerDop yeah I believe that to a point. No doubt. Just like the US. We all have people that we feed the negative waves. Let's just all come together and live life to the fullest. War surly isn't the answer for anyone anywhere. Hope all th.kids I played football w are doing well at least.
@garywischner5200
@garywischner5200 2 года назад
Well united states can put 100 thousand troop fast if needed and Russia will have most of its equipment in the west china can move on russia land next on the east coast
@Kharmatos13
@Kharmatos13 2 года назад
"Why don't princes fight the wars? Why do they always send the poor?" - System of a Down.
@hughrnungus1
@hughrnungus1 2 года назад
War is just a distraction from things like inflation, money laundering, depopulation, slavery, resource exploitation etc...
@Bewoulf1223
@Bewoulf1223 2 года назад
"this sheer man power would vastly overwhelm the 3000 troops". 1 month later when Russia can't even overwhelm Ukraine. Welp, this didn't age well.
@hallarious506
@hallarious506 2 года назад
I wouldnt bark so loud. Russia is rich and has allies. They know their military equipment is subpar. There will be an upgrade. And the idea of forming an eastern NATO on the table. However, its not a westlike. NATO has no conquering state, US is more meddling than conquering. But Russia as China want to expand. Even when allied, at a certain point, they will fight.
@MacLeeland
@MacLeeland 2 года назад
And forgetting that the 3000 are additional, the US has 100 000 in europe, and all the other nato countries have soldiers to match Russia several times over.
@---qx3zb
@---qx3zb 2 года назад
Россия не делает как Американцы...Американцы просто закидывали бомбами, Афганистан ,Ливию, Ирак, Иран,Сирию и тд....Америка сбросила Атомную Бомбу на Японию, или все забыли сразу....А-? Теперь, мы вам точно устроим КУЗЬКИНУ МАТЬ...ЕСЛИ ДАЖЕ ПУТИН ОСТАНОВИТЬСЯ, МЫ НЕ ОСТАНОВИМСЯ-DAS IST FAKT!✊
@legolus3334
@legolus3334 2 года назад
@@hallarious506 i want what he's smoking cause china has other plans then to work with russia anymore lmao
@TheGerrok
@TheGerrok 2 года назад
@@legolus3334 China and Russia are frienemies at best. Russia is desperately looking for support, and China is looking to challenge the US, but the two aren't looking to be allies.
@ronnyblake6204
@ronnyblake6204 2 года назад
In 1961 when I was stationed in France and in Germany, it was said that the Soviet Union could at any moment roll across the borders in Europe through Germany, and those stationed there would have a rough time holding up against such an all out conventional attack. However, it was expected that the United States and other allies would quickly react to this scenario. There are plans in place for such an event. The presence of NATO troops is an overt warning to Russia that many more can arrive very quickly and at the best places to counter any such Russian aggression.
@JoshJos-Shwa
@JoshJos-Shwa 2 года назад
Most of Russian troops are conscripts and are not told what is going on. The higher ups seem to be corrupt and the inability of lower ground troops to make decisions without notifying a higher up is restrictive to Russian military operations. Those 3,000 could be akin to Sparta's 300.
@erick94sweet
@erick94sweet 2 года назад
They don’t advertise our comparison to “Sparta’s 300” being anywhere.
@daledykes9253
@daledykes9253 2 года назад
Meanwhile, clueless Russian conscripts breaking down the Ukrainian military and essentially reordering the world order.
@kierano8390
@kierano8390 2 года назад
Americans are not compareable to spartans haha
@rogerbrownreacts8528
@rogerbrownreacts8528 2 года назад
3000 could have held them all back if the has the weapons
@rogerbrownreacts8528
@rogerbrownreacts8528 2 года назад
@@kierano8390 Meet me I’ll make you a believer. I’m the reason a population should have guns.
@TBleader
@TBleader 2 года назад
Never did I think that in my 20s, I'd be watching someone casually draw battle lines on youtube; explaining to the general public, and myself, that war is just a give and take. With missiles, tanks, guns, and IED, sure, but a give and take none the less.
@themanhimself3
@themanhimself3 2 года назад
Now it's all started.
@xrpmaxi8839
@xrpmaxi8839 2 года назад
Tbh you never thought that because you're in your 20s but in reality about 20 years ago similar discussions were being had over Iraq. About 10 years ago the same discussions were being had over Georgia. Or Syria. You've gotten numb to war but it's been here literally the entire time.
@brigitamatulyte
@brigitamatulyte 2 года назад
Watching this after the invasion. Jesus Christ
@pHixiq
@pHixiq 2 года назад
Well when you think about it, people our age have been living in fear of war our entire lives. I’m 21 and ever since I was 12 I’ve always wondered when wwiii would start
@rachaellee2629
@rachaellee2629 2 года назад
Some how Bucegi mountain portal is involved. USA wants it. under no circumstances will it be allowed russia take over as they did the tunnels under Ukraine..
@ProblemSolverUS
@ProblemSolverUS 2 года назад
You do realize that Poland, Romania, the Baltic states, Hungary have their own well equipped armies too?
@WhatDoYouWant92
@WhatDoYouWant92 2 года назад
He does but he talks about war zones between NATO and Russia. And these lands would be on the middle of it.
@pitr_vitr
@pitr_vitr 2 года назад
I came to comment section for this.
@tuputapu877
@tuputapu877 2 года назад
All those countries are walk-through's or shall I say run-through's. No problem for Russia. History backs it up
@ProblemSolverUS
@ProblemSolverUS 2 года назад
@@lukaslt9094 LoL yeah they'll be fighting with nuclear weapons. If that's the case then why even mention the number of soldiers. And BTW these days all European countries are capable of developing nukes, the reason they don't is because of NATO.
@ProblemSolverUS
@ProblemSolverUS 2 года назад
@@lukaslt9094 You are out of your mind if you that nukes will be used in this potential conflict.
@craigriglin
@craigriglin 2 года назад
Thank you for sharing your insights. I had the exact problem at a recently family reunion in sharing my lasagna at the gathering. Had I seen your video I could’ve better come to terms with the predicament.
@aldrianevampir9570
@aldrianevampir9570 2 года назад
Lol
@DamienPalmer
@DamienPalmer Год назад
I hope you didn't lose too many family in the ensuing, obviously implied, war.
@Gorilder
@Gorilder Год назад
It's amusing how strong we used to think Russia was. At this point, Russia would be fortunate to maintain it's statehood
@gsaexperience8578
@gsaexperience8578 Год назад
It’s easy to look weak when you have 65% of the world against you. It’s not that Russia is weak, really.. it’s more that they just don’t have the spirit to fight this war. If the USA or Ukraine where the ones who invaded Russia I bet you they would be looking a lot stronger. No one wants to fight a old politicians fight. These Russians are too westernized now. I doubt Russia will survive this conflict. As this will be the first domino falling. Once it reaches the end and they are all knocked down, Russia will be surrounded by nato and will have no choice. Which is actually sad as I do not support nato at all.
@user-xr3up5cc5t
@user-xr3up5cc5t Год назад
Its not because Russia is weak, its because Ukraine is strong
@ianhinrichsendrummer2113
@ianhinrichsendrummer2113 Год назад
The way things are going Ukraine might chase them all the way back to Moscow!
@creesmith2794
@creesmith2794 Год назад
Russia is kinda untouchable considering their nuclear weapons that legally they are allowed to use in the case of defending russian lands. (These are tactical nukes btw, not cataclysmic.)
@creesmith2794
@creesmith2794 Год назад
@@ianhinrichsendrummer2113 Ukraine isn't even winning in a defense of their own country my guy.
@ronpaul_
@ronpaul_ 2 года назад
Russia's wildest best case win is gaining influence over all of east bank and southern ukraine; Nato's wildest best case win is resolving all the frozen conflicts to their favor. While an interesting use of game theory, the actual red and blue lines are 1000 miles to the east of where you've drawn them. From this you'd actually conclude the american troops are actually pointless
@rekke41
@rekke41 2 года назад
Yes, barring the actual existence of actual magic Russia lacks the logistical capacity to wage war that far West. It's actually iffy if Russia could even reach say Kiev with sufficient troops what with their lack of transport. I suspect that Russia's intent would be to secure the Donbas and Luhansk regions and perhaps try to sieze Odessa.
@JaM-R2TR4
@JaM-R2TR4 2 года назад
@@rekke41 thats why they have troops in Belarus.. from border, its 2hour drive to Kiev...
@majorrgeek
@majorrgeek 2 года назад
ronpaul_2008 - fact is Russia does not have any best case wins - if it takes east bank of the Dniper it cannot afford a long and protracted war of attrition and cost that will be needed to maintain occupancy and 120,000 troops is not enough for that - game theory, my ass
@majorrgeek
@majorrgeek 2 года назад
@@JaM-R2TR4 - Putin has troops in Belarus mainly to quell the dissent against Russia and its puppet Lukashenko that has surfaced there before as well his latest antics are to show the Russians he is still a strong leader and gain some popularity points although all his attempts to divide and conquer Europe are kind of back firing - he's going to lose this game badly is my opinion
@maryanchabursky9148
@maryanchabursky9148 2 года назад
@@JaM-R2TR4 2 hours by road, the north of Ukraine is forest and Pripyat seamps, so frankly south and east would cost less than north.
@FunkcijaDijagonale
@FunkcijaDijagonale 2 года назад
This video treats Europe like a population-less, powerless, economic-less field and puts the US vs Russia in some sort of abstract chess game. I understand it's "game theory" or whatever but even as a starting point this makes very little sense, it's not what Russia wants and it's not what the US wants and it definitely isn't what the EU wants
@bhangrafan4480
@bhangrafan4480 2 года назад
It is entirely about the US versus Russia. This is why Putin keeps trying to talk to the US. The US replies by saying don't talk to us, talk to NATO, knowing that NATO is only an expression of its members policies and so cannot make any policy without the USA. It is just a way of fobbing them off. What Russia wants is to keep the US military off Russia's border. If the US ever decided to deploy its full conventional military strength inside Ukraine, Russia would be completely unable to defend itself in a confrontation with the US, except by going nuclear. This is suicidal, so the US would have a decisive stranglehold on Russia. Putin knows that once Ukraine joins NATO he will be unable to forestall any US military deployments inside Ukraine, so it will be 'game over' for Russia. The neo-cons in Washington, notably Nuland who is obsessed with cutting Russia down to size, deeply resent Russia being able to constrain their actions around the world and seek to neutralise Russia. This has been sharply illustrated in Syria where the US would have overthrown Assad by now if it wasn't for Russian intervention. Neo-cons regard this as intolerable and push the idea that US global dominance is in some way essential for the maintenance of the 'liberal democratic' order in the world (if you can find it). To this end the idea of either compromise with Russia, or peaceful co-existence with Russia is an intolerable violation of their values, and the only acceptable policy is to get a decisive strategic advantage which can be used to eliminate Russia as a force in the world. If this can be achieved by economic warfare, or political destabilisation, fine, but a decisive military advantage is a parallel strategy. They have been working actively on all of these almost since the USSR collapsed.
@claudiopereira9900
@claudiopereira9900 2 года назад
@@bhangrafan4480 well said, if only all my fellow Europeans were open to what you just point out. We need balance in the World, with a World power in every Continent so things like Lybia and Siria could be avoided, Lybia was destroyed and Syria was fortunately saved by Russia otherwise we would had Terrorists running that country now
@rekke41
@rekke41 2 года назад
@@bhangrafan4480 Even as NATO has expanded to Russia borders we have not seen significant deployments of NATO or US Military personnel to those nations. In truth this appears more canard than actual motivation. IMO the real problem is thus, back before the latest color revolution more and more Ukrainians began looking west and started asking questions like why does Poland with the same population have 3 times the GDP with the same population? Why do nations like Hungary Czechia and Romania with much smaller populations have significantly larger economies? In large part because Russia, and by extension its satellite states, is ruled by an almost feudal kleptocratic elite which inherently stifles economic development. What keeps Putin and his political allies up at night, that enough Russians will start asking the same question. The answer of Putin's government is to try and sow distrust hostility and internal division into Russia's neighbors. So instead of acquiring one's own cow, kill the neighbors instead.
@bhangrafan4480
@bhangrafan4480 2 года назад
@@rekke41 Yes of course the US has not made force deployments into those eastern regions, for a number of reasons. Some are short-term, other are more long-term. Some are simply saving money. In military affairs you have to be aware of the difference between developing military capability and developing military capacity. Capability includes things like new technology, infrastructure (roads, railways, airfields, harbours etc.), training of allied troops and interoperability. These things take many years to achieve and much investment. Capacity can be built-up quickly. Troops can be moved in days, weeks and months. Aircraft can be moved in hours and days. The US is quietly building capability by the expansion of NATO, the upgrading of allies' militaries and infrastructure, and developing interoperability. Current NATO exercises in Ukraine, such as "Cossack Mace 2021" aim at developing interoperability. It is clear from US actions in Ukraine, that Ukraine will be joining NATO when the political situation allows it. In 2008 the US/UK wanted Ukraine to join but it was blocked by France/Germany. The US is waiting for a political situation where it will be begged to send its forces, also Ukraine will be allowed to join. Much of the ramping up of tensions between the west and Russia aims to get this. I've seen it all before. I knew by 1983 that the US intended to invade the Middle East. They spent billions around the region, the North Africa and the Indian Ocean developing harbour facilities, air bases and prepositioned stocks of ammo and spares. They had 330,000 troops allocated to CENTCOM and training for war in the Middle East. The public who pay for all this knew nothing. The US had to wait till 1990 when Saddam invaded Kuwait to activate plans which had been developed years earlier. They not only scrupulously avoided deterring Saddam from invading, but US ambassador Glaspie had actually given him a green light. Something similar is happening now. As usual the public are the only ones who know nothing. Since the end of the Cold War the US has been following a number of policies to gain a decisive strategic advantage over Russia. ABM systems combined with PGS technology are intended one day to give the US the nuclear monopoly it dreams of. The US has interfered in the internal politics of countries like Ukraine and Georgia to support Russophobic elements to isolate Russia from its neighbours and reduce its influence. I remember when Shakashvilli overthrew the elected government of Georgia by mobs, then held an unmonitored election to 'democratise' himself, the BBC correspondent saying "That he won 98% of the vote shows how much the people love him". Yeah, right, spreading democracy or western power and influence?
@Goprof150
@Goprof150 2 года назад
This is what happens when you don’t spend enough on your military and need the US to cover your ass.
@dennisgoodnight5087
@dennisgoodnight5087 Год назад
I was with the 24TH Infantry, and this strategy was in play in both Korea (a little before me) and Iran. Our job was to stay alive long enough to get supplies (roughly 45 days) with about two weeks worth of ammo. The US factor also includes air superiority which means each of those US units has everything from Navy carriers to B-52 bombers behind them. The 45 day figure also included hos long we would last under the barrage of friendly fire.
@softlyspoken4503
@softlyspoken4503 9 месяцев назад
Ever since these videos have started getting recommended to me, I have been watching in reverse how they slowly became more and more meme heavy and there were more and more eastereggs. It's impressive, in a way
@PCVMoldova
@PCVMoldova 2 года назад
It reminds me of Churchill asking the French how many British troops France would need in the event of a German invasion. "Just one." replied the French "And we will see to it he is killed.""
@Gametheory101
@Gametheory101 2 года назад
That’s amazing. Do you know a source for it?
@yndiiatecow2536
@yndiiatecow2536 2 года назад
@@Gametheory101 oh yes, I was there. When a frenchmen said it.
@maydate86
@maydate86 2 года назад
You really believe its 3000. The US Cannot disclose the actual number or real location of deployment. Its a secret.
@josephdraper6971
@josephdraper6971 2 года назад
@@Gametheory101 Just trust him
@frontier7320
@frontier7320 2 года назад
@@maydate86 yes. I don't believe that number too. It's classified. Good reason why Russia mobilize their army and encircled the border, she feels threatened. If it's for exercise you don't need to bring every arsenals but Russia did bring all of it.
@GXNK44
@GXNK44 2 года назад
Remember when 50 Finnish soilders destroyed over 50k Russian men during the winter war, don't underestimate soilders even if it is in small numbers
@tokumo2190
@tokumo2190 2 года назад
remember when one Finnish sniper in the snow killed 500 soviets with out a scope
@horacecunningham7832
@horacecunningham7832 2 года назад
That was before the Soviet juggernaut that crushed Nazi Germany. But yea the Finns were badass
@tokumo2190
@tokumo2190 2 года назад
@walter matter remember the motto keep throwing more people at them until they run out of bullet
@Brukner841
@Brukner841 2 года назад
@@horacecunningham7832 it was more like the zombie hordes from world war z. I played my fair share of call of duty, gimme rpg's and I'm takin out T72s for breakfast lunch and dinner, gonna go kiss my cats goodbye.
@ILovePizzaAndKFC99502
@ILovePizzaAndKFC99502 2 года назад
@@tokumo2190 that’s a lie
@cteal2018
@cteal2018 Год назад
Why did Leonidas bring only 300? It's not to win, but to hold the line to give other time to rally. But the events of the last 9 months have shown this to have been over kill, as the Russian Bear has embarrassed itself on the battlefield.
@Robert399
@Robert399 Год назад
An issue with applying the bargaining model is that the expected outcome of fighting and costs to both sides have to be common knowledge. I think it's self-evident that decision-makers are often delusional about the expected outcome of fighting (which only compounds the genuine uncertainty).
@thelazy0ne
@thelazy0ne 2 года назад
The token presence of US troops is expected, plus a too large presence has time and again proven to be detrimental in Europe. The negotiation lines are a novelty to me and I'm glad I got to learn of this. Thanks 😁
@CaIypso5150
@CaIypso5150 2 года назад
If enough of those guys die it will force our hand. However it also might incentive other countries to supply troops as well.
@vikks7692
@vikks7692 2 года назад
Facts : A story of 900 Filipino Soldiers who defeated 40,000 Chinese and North Korean forces on the hills of Yultong. General Douglas MacArthur once praised the gallantry and supreme tactical skills of Filipino soldiers during World War II: “Give me 10,000 Filipino soldiers and I will conquer the world.”
@emed07-
@emed07- 2 года назад
not to brag or anything but we are talking about Europe not Asia
@Medussa357
@Medussa357 2 года назад
Is this true? Wow i didnt know
@emed07-
@emed07- 2 года назад
@@Medussa357 yes its true lmao
@Medussa357
@Medussa357 2 года назад
@@emed07- whats so funny
@emed07-
@emed07- 2 года назад
@@Medussa357 nothing just to make my comment not sounding like a angry guy or smthin
@wolfie1213
@wolfie1213 2 месяца назад
Your videos are so well grounded in theory that transcends domestic (anywhere) politics that them STILL being interesting speaks volumes to your videos and IR realistic theory in such situations. Would love more videos on the Indo-Pacific.
@mwtrolle
@mwtrolle Год назад
7:05 great video, though the lines clearly should have been a lot different, further to the east in general. :P
@SuperTonyony
@SuperTonyony 2 года назад
Psychopaths are monsters. Instead of being allowed to be the leaders of nations and corporations, they should be confined to cages.
@drake000666
@drake000666 2 года назад
@my my Putin really :) this is all planned by the west to increase arms sales :) the military industrial complex is making hundreds of billions on this and they hope to make even more and their puppet politicians will be will rewarded for it :) and who will pay the cost for it all, fools like you :)
@booboobunny5655
@booboobunny5655 2 года назад
Very true.
@jesussantiago8303
@jesussantiago8303 Год назад
You got that right.
@Chironex_Fleckeri
@Chironex_Fleckeri 2 года назад
To all those salty that this is such an American-centric view. I didnt watch the whole video, but I am familiar with this topic because it often comes up and offends people. It makes America seem like it's regarding itself as the only hope for Europe, but really this isnt what it's getting at. It isn't dismissing the Nato Member states and their contribution to mutual security, the video focus is on the USA vs Russia because the implication is nuclear war. There is no such thing as a conventional conflict between NATO coalition and Russia. Remember that. It's the assumption that leads us back to America and Russia as the two countries with fully developed nuclear capabilities, including a retaliatory "second strike" capability guaranteed by a nuclear triad with global reach. Only the US and Russia have this sort of Armageddon nuclear capability in their own right. France and the UK could devastate Russia as well, but the nuclear playing field, so to speak, would not be level in this instance. Russia would have a clear strategic advantage here in that they could theorize winning a nuclear war if America was completely out of the picture whatsoever. Because of this, it's logical that America is the main balancing force in Europe. Again, it's purely nuclear war calculus and not an affront to any nation's conventional military forces. I know NATO states bordering Russia are well-prepared now. Their militaries are modern and likely to be extremely combat effective because of the resolve of the nations to not endure another occupation. It is admirable and we ought to commend the professionals that keep smaller countries postured for defense at a moment's notice. But it just isn't part of this discussion. That's why these NATO countries are strategically irrelevant for the purposes of this kind of exercise. If bullets fly, so will missiles. No disrespect to Hungary, Romania, Poland, the Baltic countries, or any other country, but this is a theoretical nuclear exchange. These tripwire troops are there not because they're better than then host country's forces but because their presence is a pact signed in blood. If American soldiers are attacked by Russian forces, America will be forced to respond. In this way, Russia will not meddle or aggressively posture towards these border countries who happen to be NATO member states.
@patrickbateman2869
@patrickbateman2869 2 года назад
The United States airforce alone has more planes then all the other nato countries combined and the United States Navy has the second largest airforce in the world. America is 70% or natos strength.
@Chironex_Fleckeri
@Chironex_Fleckeri 2 года назад
@@patrickbateman2869 Another good point. There exists overwhelming numbers of technologically and operationally superior NATO units. Russia is measured in their attack. They know the hands of NATO are mostly tied, but we can expect tens of thousands of Ukrainian freedom fighters to conduct guerrilla operations against occupation force. Attrite the Russian occupying force, destroy materiel. These brave Ukrainians who will fight and die in their homeland will be equipped with a lot of excellent infantry anti-tank weapons. They can fly small drones to attack grounded Russian military aircraft or other airforce assets such as vehicles, fuel dumps, ammo dumps, etc. So much is possible with the resources NATO countries have at their disposal. Putin thinks he will be written about in history books. Who will be left to write those books? We must draw on our strength as free countries and open our doors to Ukrainians who will need the full support of the West. If we are going to be the force for morality, we must do this for them in their hour of need. Keep families together, shelter them and provide employment. It's the Free World vs. The Authoritarians
@fiverareblanks
@fiverareblanks 2 года назад
@@Chironex_Fleckeri I think the UK and France together have enough nuclear weapons to end the world on their own - toss in a few hundred more from Russia and there pretty much wouldn't be a livable planet left anyway
@patrickbateman2869
@patrickbateman2869 2 года назад
@@fiverareblanks no not really all the first world would be destroyed but humanity would by no means be extinct.
@spugelo359
@spugelo359 2 года назад
@@patrickbateman2869 Is USA going to bring all of them across the ocean? No? Then stfu.
@Passonator11
@Passonator11 Год назад
it is 27.9.2022 by now we are pretty certain that 3000 US troops and the combined forces of Baltic states and Poland would wipe the floor with Russia and occupy Petrograd before winter.
@omarrp14
@omarrp14 2 года назад
1:23 I’ve been stationed in 3 places for about 4 years total just to serve this purpose. Especially in Korea we understood that we were a speed bump with a US flag
@Gametheory101
@Gametheory101 2 года назад
Glad you are still with us!
@bluecoastnews2715
@bluecoastnews2715 2 года назад
Some people seem to forget the countries we are protecting have there own soldiers as well.
@spi9177
@spi9177 2 года назад
You forget we have an idiot running the USA and his democrati government, we're screwed!
@Shikinami.Asuka617
@Shikinami.Asuka617 2 года назад
@@spi9177 Trump maybe better
@jesussantiago8303
@jesussantiago8303 Год назад
Exactly.
@johncarloarbilo4645
@johncarloarbilo4645 2 года назад
Poland: ah shit here we go again😔
@krassusmarek7014
@krassusmarek7014 2 года назад
we in Poland think the same - once again weak and disarmed west Europe pushes us to fight land hungry tyrans ... change will be that we would this time fight as second and not on two fronts ;) so there is hope
@Byrzzaa
@Byrzzaa 2 года назад
Jokes aside, Poland is way stronger these days from what it used to be before ww2.
@BiancaTallarico
@BiancaTallarico 2 года назад
Poland frigging hates Russia. Too much history of war between the two and hate for being under a Russian regime during the cold war. I believe Poland would fight like hell.
@erpeka937
@erpeka937 2 года назад
@@BiancaTallarico 100% true
@plincz9279
@plincz9279 2 года назад
@@Byrzzaa Poland is the weakest militarily in its history. It is so weak that in this video no one even considered our army. Polska to pierdolony zdechlak pod respiratorem, teraz wojna toczy się na wschodzie naszego prawdziwego kraju. Ukraina to jedna z prowincji upadłej Rzeczypospolitej.
@rafealborbon8482
@rafealborbon8482 2 года назад
They have something you’re right they are retreating back to the same line they came from😂
@TheCaptainCrack
@TheCaptainCrack Год назад
i was wondering about how those lines crossed ukraine but then i saw when it was uploaded... with the performance the russians show in ukraine i think you should update this video with all three lines deeply in russia.
@christopherellis2663
@christopherellis2663 2 года назад
What makes you imagine that Poland and Romania are incapable of resisting Belorus and Russia? Transnistria would be the first to go, followed by everything that Stalin stole in 1939... Putin would not last for long.
@sandwicheman9772
@sandwicheman9772 2 года назад
History
@ct0903
@ct0903 2 года назад
🤣if your say so, Russia only know how to smash and anyone in there way get smashed
@sychoboy12345
@sychoboy12345 2 года назад
@@ct0903 Afghanistan??? Also Russia got obliterated in WW2. Ten times the losses of any nation. That had nothing to do with military power and everything to do with using civilians as cannon fodder. It was a victory of circumstance.
@ct0903
@ct0903 2 года назад
@@sychoboy12345 (with Russian accent) No brother Russia smash o.k
@ct0903
@ct0903 2 года назад
@@BirdsR so you think 🤣 lmfao what is America going to do with 3000 troops ? Nothing that's right nothing !!!! America are a spent force fighting here there everywhere your military are done. Russia smash you.
@VBH8888
@VBH8888 2 года назад
The reason they only have 3000 troops is because it’s not our country do you have the entire NATO backing our troops and if we had a buildup of a larger force it would allow Russia to take a more defensive stance feeling more threatened by an abundance of troops from the US that are not on their home territory and potentially themselves building up for an invasion the low Troop amount is to avoid tension increase as well as reduce mistakes made by those troops as the more true star the more mistakes can be made
@loveydub
@loveydub 2 года назад
Exactly. This game theory guy is pulling facts out of his opinion hole
@knowledge3563
@knowledge3563 2 года назад
difference between "looking dangerous" and "being dangerous".Russia describes military doctrine as defensive military doctrine. With regard to nuclear weapons specifically, Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons: in response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it or its allies,in case of aggression against Russia with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is threatened. oops google russia deadhand The 'Perimeter' system, dubbed in the United States and Europe the 'Dead Hand', is an automatic control system for a retaliation nuclear strike. To put it simply, if Russia's territory is devastated after a nuclear attack, the Perimeter system automatically strikes the enemy's territory with its own nuclear missiles.
@gregorymatthew2684
@gregorymatthew2684 2 года назад
I think your opinion and William spaniel's opinion is in one direction. Sending small troops to avoid tension increase whilst baiting the opposition to strike first.
@bjorntorlarsson
@bjorntorlarsson 2 года назад
The reason they send 3000 troops is to fool the idiots who votes for demented politicians like Biden and Johnson domestically. There exists no kind of geostrategic sense to it at all. I KNOW that NATO would not react in the slightest whatever Russia does. They have 5000 bureaucrats in their HQ in Brussels. That proves that NATO has no ability to ever make any kind of decision. And that is good, because NATO has always been humiliatingly defeated in every conflict they ever have involved themselves in! No matter how weak their opponent has been.
@nicolasdelaforge7420
@nicolasdelaforge7420 2 года назад
Great thinking. And Putin is getting a bit unbalanced, provoked as he is by England and the U.S. War is unthinkable, and Putin never said that he would invade. The narrative was fabricated by the Anglos. The U.S. and U.S. corporate news are desperate to trigger war. The danger is: once a narrative for the invasion is created - making it as if the invasion is already a Reality - it will almost certainly become Reality! U.S. dreams of exhausting Russia to then strike at it. Stay out of it, U.S. criminal empire. No one wants war; Russia wants some security, nothing else. As you see below, Ukraine has a different narrative. "French President Emmanuel Macron is meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow today in hopes of de-escalating tensions over Ukraine. Macron will meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv on Tuesday. This comes as the Biden administration continues to warn of a possible attack on Ukraine by Russian forces and as U.S. officials reportedly said over the weekend Russia now has 70% of the necessary combat forces in place to invade. Following the comments from Washington, Ukraine’s foreign minister told Ukrainian citizens, “Do not believe the apocalyptic predictions.” The U.S. has also ramped up its arms transfer to Ukraine and sent troops to NATO allies in Eastern Europe and Germany in recent days."
@AceDan-gc9po
@AceDan-gc9po 2 года назад
It feels surreal watching our selves discuss this knowing what happened
@lenny8956
@lenny8956 2 года назад
I don't understand how people don't realize that its an example and not actually how he predicts it to play out, obviously there are other factors. The lines were drawn randomly to show an example of this concept.
@Gametheory101
@Gametheory101 2 года назад
Evergreen comment on all of my videos. 😆
@madmax6470
@madmax6470 2 года назад
I wish our media would teach news to us this way. Thankyou for what you do
@davidtomiczek8839
@davidtomiczek8839 2 года назад
U clown
@ghilessaidani3929
@ghilessaidani3929 2 года назад
This video is an absolut joke
@kuririn1975
@kuririn1975 2 года назад
That could be one way to look at it. Or take it from this perspective, Ukraine has a military, Poland has a military, Romania has a military, Estonia, Lativa etc. etc. Also, the US has what 35K in Germany, about the same in Italy (maybe less). The whole 82nd and 101st can be in country ready to go within 48 hours. the US can also be sending a message that this is a European issue and not totally a US/Russia issue.
@dambigfoot6844
@dambigfoot6844 2 года назад
Exactly. Also these 3,000 troops aren't just some dudes that are going to sit in trenches with rifles they are F-35 pilots, M1 Abrams tank crews, Javelin anti tank units, special forces, mortar squads, artillery crews, drone operators, engineers. But being honest US has conventional forces there simply so the non nuclear countries don't feel scared of Russia and leave NATO because everyone knows a couple days or weeks of fighting and someone will use nuclear weapons.
@prasadhonnavara875
@prasadhonnavara875 2 года назад
Intresting analysis.
@tannerdenny5430
@tannerdenny5430 Год назад
this is an interesting rewind to what was expected in the Ukraine war.
@PunmasterSTP
@PunmasterSTP 2 года назад
Not to make light of anything, I just want want to say that this presentation seemed to get a bit darker (at least to me). It seems that one nation might leave the tip of the spear to die so that the rest can follow. I'm just glad that we have men and women willing to lay down their lives for the greater good. Great lecture as always.
@ericcrabtree6245
@ericcrabtree6245 2 года назад
Without having seen this set of lines, I have previously commented on other threads that Russia would stop at the Dniper, in the event of an invasion. The game scenario described here seems to almost make that advance a certainty.
@jalenthomas4836
@jalenthomas4836 2 года назад
It would be like Germany in half east Ukraine and west Ukraine
@seanicus100
@seanicus100 2 года назад
Well the lines are kinda arbitrarily drawn to prove a point about game theory.
@haylocktransport6695
@haylocktransport6695 2 года назад
Ukraine is going to have to move the bulk there army west of Kyiv .
@christopherellis2663
@christopherellis2663 2 года назад
The Bug and the Dniepr are the geographical border between Eastern and Central Europe. The Don is the border between Russia and the Ukraine. Putin is striving to stay popular.
@davidrussell8783
@davidrussell8783 2 года назад
@@haylocktransport6695 Or sacrifice it east of the Dnieper.
@edwardmoes1617
@edwardmoes1617 Год назад
This just popped up on my feed. End of September 2022. Can’t wait to apply hindsight…
@TooSourJuice
@TooSourJuice Год назад
Yea this didn’t age well or like you said in hindsight should be a lesson learn for future situations
@rzmonk76
@rzmonk76 Год назад
Like Pearl Harbor? Lots was there but most ships where out on training?
@SXsoft99
@SXsoft99 2 года назад
That nice drawing of borders is so cute, it's almost like then they drew the lines in Africa or the US but you forget that borders in the EU are most if the time drawn by geography and population Also countries in the EU have their standing armies and equipment, yes not as much as the US or Russia or China, but there is spending, also strategy also revolves around terrain not just numbers, remember WW2 sluggish war where they had to move river by river The truth of the matter is everything is complicated
@byewhobayou8868
@byewhobayou8868 2 года назад
With the amount and quality of technology in today’s military equipment, terrain is no longer an issue. Look at OEF in Afghanistan, we would have a small platoon get surrounded by hundreds of enemy fighters holding the advantageous high ground, and that platoon would win. With AC-130 gunships, predator drones, and A-10 Warthogs all providing close air support, any advantage they could possibly have was utterly meaningless. In fact, the US military is already working toward completely removing humans from combat roles in the next 50 years. Realistically, terrain has been a nonissue in the outcome of any battle since Desert Storm.
@braxon
@braxon 2 года назад
@@byewhobayou8868 Ok, there are a bunch of issues here. For one, this deals only with Game Theory. Game Theory is not the best predictor of outcomes because it assumes outcome maximizing behavior to the exclusion of all else. However, its unfair to hold the OP's Game Theory analysis to factors not considered by Game Theory itself such as tactics, terrain, and culture. Second, the OP wasn't saying that these lines were actually the expected gains by the two sides. (It's hard to see NATO giving up 4/5ths of a member state's territories.) This was an example for the purposes of explaining Game Theory, not as an actual prediction of behavior. The other issue is that Terrain is still supremely important in warfare. Afghanistan is a false example because the technological differences were far more massive than they would be in a European War. Regardless, the impenetrable mountainous terrain meant that the strongest military in the world was unable to find and eradicate the Taliban in 20 years of conflict. Compare with Iraq where the insurgency was defeated far more quickly. Terrain does still matter.
@byewhobayou8868
@byewhobayou8868 2 года назад
@@braxon I’m not sure what you’re referring to. I didn’t take this theory as a true indication of a potential outcome to a potential scenario. However, on the subject of terrain, it really isn’t that important anymore. Afghanistan is a great indicator of overcoming terrain, regardless of military disparities, because it proves that the challenges of terrain in past wars like crossing muddy rivers in WW2 are no longer a fight stopper. The only difference, is that this potential enemy has been able to overcome those challenges as well. Terrain, troop numbers, and even strategies are meaningless. Yes, I included strategy. It’s been proven in every battle throughout history, that no plan survives contact with the enemy. Sure,
@byewhobayou8868
@byewhobayou8868 2 года назад
All of the things that I mentioned could be helpful in certain scenarios, but overall, it’s not as important as what you bring to the fight and your resolve to win it.
@braxon
@braxon 2 года назад
@@byewhobayou8868 I was referring to both you and the OP bayou. If the statement clearly wasn't referring to his post an not yours, you don't need to feign confusion. Second the Taliban didn't overcome the mountainous terrain, they used it to avoid American attacks as the Americans had substantial difficulty seeking out Taliban forces in the mountainous caves throughout the country. Accordingly, the terrain afforded the defending side an advantage over the attackers. Terrain mattered. Regardless, with much even technology, terrain would still matter far more as air superiority and mobility differences won't be a given.
@ClassicGamingLives
@ClassicGamingLives 2 года назад
There is some truth in this video, in regards to the purpose of US troops in Europe. However, you are not taking into consideration Article 5. If Russia invaded Poland or Romania, then the US would be obligated to declare war on Russia, regardless if there were any US troops in those countries or not. The US could withdrawal ALL US forces from these countries, and would still declare war on Russia per Article 5 if they were to be invaded. So the purpose of these US forces is not to be bait or a tripwire, but the purpose is to show Russia the unity of the NATO Alliance. Russia can not divide and conquer if there is no division. The overall strength of NATO is a much greater deterrent then a few thousand troops from any country. The US forces currently in Europe, along with the tens of thousands of other NATO troops there as well, is enough to counter the current Russian build-up, until each side reenforces of course.
@fpxy00
@fpxy00 2 года назад
Atricle 5 could be tested, not many NATO countries would engage, therefore it would failed the test, and NATO would collapse.
@granand
@granand 2 года назад
@UTubeFekUrself Bloody lies are being propagated and gas lighting. The treaty is Ukraine will never join NATO and NaTO forces near Ukraine are barred and that is current day demand of Putin simple ..
@granand
@granand 2 года назад
@UTubeFekUrself If American troops die in Ukraine they die in vain. So they don't go there. Also if war breaks out I find it amusing American hipocracy and arrogance, the evil, they funded and created like Taliban or Al Qaeida made us run away and you want to face Russian hypersonic missiles and nuclear Missiles ..I know Dems election is near but stop kidding both leaders and Military are NOT fools till today they actually protected each other ..
@jmehn203
@jmehn203 2 года назад
@@granand , what are you talking about, there's no treaty in existence about limiting NATO expansion or Ukraine joining NATO. The Budapest Memorandum signed on 1994 on Security Assurances refers to three identical political agreements signed at the OSCE conference in Budapest, Hungary on 5 December 1994 to provide security assurances by its signatories relating to the accession of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of nuclear weapons. The memorandum was originally signed by three nuclear powers: Russian, the United Kingdom, and the United States. China and France gave somewhat weaker individual assurances in separate documents... According to the memorandum, Russia, the US and the UK confirmed their recognition of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine becoming parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of nuclear weapons and effectively abandoning their nuclear arsenal to Russia and that they would: 1. Respect Belarusian, Kazakh and Ukrainian independence and sovereignty in the existing borders. 2. Refrain from the threat or the use of force against Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine. 3. Refrain from using economic pressure on Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine to influence their politics. 4. Seek immediate Security Council action to provide assistance to Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine if they "should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used". 5. Refrain from the use of nuclear arms against Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine. 6. Consult with one another if questions arise regarding those commitments. Russia signed this on 1994 and it has broken the agreement. Russia should follow these rules as they signed and agreed...
@fpxy00
@fpxy00 2 года назад
@@granand no they are sent to die. It is theirs purpose. Thats why they sent 3000 solders only. Enough, if they die, US will have to escalate, too few to intimate the enemy.
@michaelsmith7425
@michaelsmith7425 2 года назад
This is a good analysis of the political forces that ebb and flow behind the threat of war. I found it flawed though that you presumed that only the US was there to fight. Many other nations have added sizable numbers of troops to other countries along the NATO border. Not to metntion the already in place forces of the countries directly along that border. Now that a month has passed and we have seen the amazing resistance of the Ukraniian forces. Russias outdated equipment and inability to resupply their forces, a follow up vid would be in order given that so much more information is available.
@uktenatsila9168
@uktenatsila9168 Год назад
Prior to the 2nd Russian invasion in February, I had suggested to friends and in discussions on line, the borders post advance as you have layed it out. I received ridicul. Thank you for the analysis.
@Jjf109nine
@Jjf109nine 2 года назад
Man I am a Pole and I tell you that Poles are first to fight. If Russians decide to attack us, then they will have a big problem. People underestimate Polish strength.
@prophet1020
@prophet1020 2 года назад
😂
@fazered8202
@fazered8202 2 года назад
Nobody will survive when bombs start dropping... innocent lives will be lost
@rustyshackleford1570
@rustyshackleford1570 2 года назад
@@Adam-gf3jg You know it costs money to fight a war. Russia is broke man. Appreciate the help from the US of course, but the rest of NATO alone would put up a hell of a fight IMO. Peace.
@gee3883
@gee3883 2 года назад
I am a brit and would stand shoulder to shoulder with the Poles and Lithuanians, they have a historic and deep hatred of Russian aggression, this hatred will give them the phycological advantage. Lets hope peace will prevail but if Putin kicks off I think he will be shocked at the hatred levelled towards his troops.
@gee3883
@gee3883 2 года назад
@@jrsleao Laughing emojis is disrespectful, WWll was a long time ago. If I had the choice I would choose to fight alongside a Polish soldier rather than a Portuguese one!
@yesthatsam
@yesthatsam 2 года назад
Great video ! I wasn’t really into your latest productions but this kind of practical example is exactly what I had hoped for. Thank you !
@Gametheory101
@Gametheory101 2 года назад
Thanks! This one is extremely popular, so I might do a follow up like it next week.
@leandrogomes2351
@leandrogomes2351 2 года назад
Nato sucks
@kellyanneree3252
@kellyanneree3252 2 года назад
@@Gametheory101You are on the right track. Just look up the UN Ten region map and you will find who gets what part of the "U" nation. Looks like the U to the bear and the other nations to the west of U nation goes to Joe's land. This is all preplanned and these puppets are actors playing out the script. Yes there will be sacrifices of ppl,buildings ect..but that is also part of the plan. Satan and his world puppets playing out their insidious theater for the masses. The new world order marches on. Ppl keep falling for their productions and even volunteer to fight for these devils. Sick "whirled"😊
@morgoth5460
@morgoth5460 2 года назад
​@@Gametheory101 Honestly the amount of comments for this video is pretty impressive considering it's only got 150, 000 views. Although considering the nature of the topic and the somewhat ... heated discussions, I guess it makes sense. I also get the impression that there are many IR experts dwelling in comment sections nowadays.
@zeblanmaidaynovich796
@zeblanmaidaynovich796 2 года назад
If some people are brainless then ill explain why... first USA was given 13 days by the Taliban to run from Afghanistan and they did run and leave 21-century tech... and 2nd USA+nato will never going to fight Russia or China not even North Korea because they will easily make cowgirls and their puppets extinct... western cowgirls only fight 3rd world countries throughout history and only because of the oil resources reality fact...😂😃😆thats why west for decades only verbally whine like a swine none stop up on western fake news and propaganda about Russia-China-NK)))
@cerberus1595
@cerberus1595 2 года назад
Good video, but you should include the most obvious geographical barriers in your lines. If Russia gets the mountain ranges, it's cheaper to hold territory in the future.
@jorejaha
@jorejaha 2 года назад
In 1991 I was talking to a group of US Army soldiers and I assured them that the US was going to mop up the Iraqi army. I predicted 100,000 Iraqi dead and 4000 US dead. They thought I was high. They said "but the Iraqi's have the best Soviet weapons" I said that I read Tom Clancy and I know what Im talking about. LOL.(really, read red storm rising) Turns out my bravado was a little understated. Looks like the Russian equipment hasnt improved much.
@solapowsj25
@solapowsj25 2 года назад
When Ukraine, and neighbors are asked No no not to start war, then one US soldier each, stationed in Poland and Romania would do the task.
@DerDop
@DerDop 2 года назад
Your English is *****.
@grek9117
@grek9117 2 года назад
????
@phil20_20
@phil20_20 2 года назад
There are tens of thousands of U.S. troops in Europe already. They are not using them as a trip wire, but as a deterent. Your interpretation is outmoded.
@earljohnson2113
@earljohnson2113 2 года назад
And this (expert) forgot one huge thing. Poland Ukraine and others DO NOT want to live under Russian rule again. And Russia's population and Russia itself is not what it is used to be. They could not win a conventional War stay NATO. Only using Nukes. And then everyone loses. Vladimir is not that stupid. Stand up to him.He likes a fight.
@james-im1sj
@james-im1sj 2 года назад
Definitely
@sangbeom6245
@sangbeom6245 2 года назад
NATO vs Russia ... this guy has no idea what he is talking about
@earljohnson2113
@earljohnson2113 2 года назад
@@sangbeom6245 ,He totally forgot about the "will" of the people. They don't want a Soviet lifestyle anymore. NEITHER DO WE !!!!
@deka9122
@deka9122 2 года назад
@@earljohnson2113 But you forgat to mention almost 40 percent Ukraine population will support Russia.And that is by west statistic,if we look at Russian,number is higher. Now is different story why in CNN you never gonna hear about people in Ukraine who support Russia. You know when Russia come to Crimea there was 20 000 Ukraine soldier,they give them two options,first to leave Crimea or to stay ger citizenship and serve in Russia army,just google it how much choose first options.Only 6 000,rest of them stay.People on West side of country hate Russia but people on East are support them.
@Bill-xx2yh
@Bill-xx2yh Год назад
Makes me wonder if those 3,000 Specialist, (bait) soldier’s get payed more? Although I suppose that they would expect to be withdrawn, just before the "overwhelmed by force" moment!
@driveramd12
@driveramd12 2 года назад
I think you could be miscalculating, technics of mobilizing evolution of weapons has giving them an edge.
@dirtyskieschemifornia3091
@dirtyskieschemifornia3091 2 года назад
We already have around 70k troops in nearby europe.
@valerymonneron9357
@valerymonneron9357 2 года назад
The USA knows the former USSR territory, and it will be a very hard case to enter in Ukraine …when in history in 1991 Ukraine had its independence from Russia , but is considered as a former USSR colony , that’s why they place troops around the 1945 treaty…at behind the lines…which was the legitimate Cold War agreement. NATO can’t amend this treaty …otherwise it’s a full on war between East and West , which has significant impact on Germany and Eastern European nation , like Poland … Avoiding and establishing old rules treaty is the best security and stability to these regions.. If NATO amend this act , it will destroy all the deals made in nuclear proliferation. Emmanuel macron is very intelligent and knows the risk we are dealing with… even the Mossad knows and decides to stay away…
@mickelodiansurname9578
@mickelodiansurname9578 2 года назад
"If NATO amend this act , it will destroy all the deals made in nuclear proliferation." Well that would be terrible... cos Russia would just drop their non-proliferation agreements too... ohh wait!
@ArchieFatcackie
@ArchieFatcackie Год назад
Well,this theory went tits up pretty quickly.
@joeyjosephgallevo8938
@joeyjosephgallevo8938 Год назад
Few but well equipt and much better trained also battle hardened👍👍👍
@freedomandsecurity5632
@freedomandsecurity5632 2 года назад
According to the Pentagon, from the beginning, NATO has 80,000 troops ready in Europe? From a military strategic point of view, a lot of troops are needed to keep occupied ground. Ukraine is a large country and military generals in the West estimate that about 500,000 troops are needed for the whole Ukraine.
@francescocerioni8939
@francescocerioni8939 2 года назад
sleep fanatic
@sebokimre892
@sebokimre892 2 года назад
Russia still have 900000 aktive personer in background. And 2 million who have to come. China is ally now. Also come to help russia if you gays go stupid
@sangbeom6245
@sangbeom6245 2 года назад
Not all forces are direct combatants. 80% are support capacity. This guy is dumb
@valenrn8657
@valenrn8657 2 года назад
EUCOM (United States European Command) has about 70,000 personnel prior to current Ukraine's security issue. 8500 has been allocated for Europe from the mainland US.
@valenrn8657
@valenrn8657 2 года назад
Approximately 74,000 personnel are permanently assigned to EUCOM. These include 34,000 Army personnel, 27,000 Air Force personnel, 3,000 Marine personnel, and 10,000 Navy personnel. Most of the US military strength is allocated towards the Pacific side. The US has 1,346,400 active-duty personnel. 165,000 deployed personnel. Polish Armed Forces consist of 114,050 active-duty personnel. From US's POV, the European front is on lower prority compared to "Pivot to Asia".
@steveballance6062
@steveballance6062 2 года назад
I know you say you study this. And everything you have said as far as I’m concerned is and has been pretty well known for some time now. It just fascinates me that the world let’s it get to this point in the first place. All over the egos of single men in the entire world. You would think the billions of people would have more influence over the ego of one.
@ThroatSore
@ThroatSore 2 года назад
Hmmm. I wonder if they might actually be effective in light of current data?
@Mike_Jones281
@Mike_Jones281 2 года назад
This assumes the U.S will be fighting alone. Those countries the troops are stationed in also have forces that will link up with U.S forces to defend against an attack. So the more apt conclusion is that the troops are there in the event of an attack to ensure that the political cover is there to respond, not necessarily to die.
@augustodalponte7759
@augustodalponte7759 2 года назад
good to see your videos with that much of views, well deserved for years of good work!
@thomasaquinas2600
@thomasaquinas2600 2 года назад
In general, a deployment less than the enemy in the European theatre is/was meant to be a show of support and/or a 'tripwire'. A tripwire in this case would be, if you attack this nation, and our forces, you invite war, up to and including any form of warfare...
@gregoriobuzarang8348
@gregoriobuzarang8348 2 года назад
In modern warfare its not about the number of boots on the ground,its about Air power,Electronic warfare and Integrated battle management.
@wwlb4970
@wwlb4970 Год назад
Because US prefers to have twice the personnel needed to counter potential enemy, that's why the count.
@Violent2aShadow
@Violent2aShadow 2 года назад
So ... You're predicting a partition of Ukraine and, interestingly, Moldova falling into Russia's sphere of influence. I think Moldova would rather unify with Romania than to let that happen.
@rutgerb
@rutgerb 2 года назад
He draws just a bit of Moldova in the Russian sphere. Thats: Transnistria, officially the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR),[b] is an unrecognised breakaway state located in the narrow strip of land between the river Dniester and the Moldovan-Ukrainian border that is internationally recognised as part of Moldova. Its capital and largest city is Tiraspol. ... The present history of the region dates to 1990, amidst the disintegration of the Soviet Union, when the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic was established in hopes that it would remain within the Soviet Union should Moldova seek unification with Romania or independence, the latter occurring in August 1991. Shortly afterwards, a military conflict between the two parties started in March 1992 and was concluded by a ceasefire in July of the same year.
@buddy1155
@buddy1155 2 года назад
Moldova can't unify with Romania as Russia has troops in Transnistria, that would bring Russian troops on NATO territory.
@hawky2k215
@hawky2k215 2 года назад
Same with the Poland. They don't likes Russian due to theirs own history. Like Sex slavery, rapist. murderer crimes increased in Poland long time ago by them cultures. They don't care about the world. It the greed's and controls they wants
@dankengine5304
@dankengine5304 2 года назад
WW3 is upon us. Last time appeasement worked was never. We tried it with Germany and they took more and more and more and we kept giving hoping to avoid war. That is what might happen here.
@rutgerb
@rutgerb 2 года назад
@@MrDICKHEAD28 NATO is not political and does not occupy.
@donaldcohen5294
@donaldcohen5294 2 года назад
The real question is why did the us and nato involve and antagonize this attack, better yet, why did the us send any military their if they aren’t even apart of the NATO bloc?
@alexxenaosas2416
@alexxenaosas2416 2 года назад
Ukraine is in NATO ,USA is in NATO, but NATO is a joke ! - is every country for themselves :)
@shacochad7052
@shacochad7052 2 года назад
@@alexxenaosas2416 what???
@sangbeom6245
@sangbeom6245 2 года назад
NATO doesn't have Ukraine. NATO was started by the US. 😮‍💨😮‍💨😮‍💨
@donaldcohen5294
@donaldcohen5294 2 года назад
What are you even saying alexandru?¿? Do your research and due diligence, buddy. Ukraine is not apart of NATO in fact they aren’t even apart of the European Union, they were deemed independent from back in 2014 when the bs with Crimea went down. They are currently attempting to get a membership with the EU because the failed attempts with NATO…
@donaldcohen5294
@donaldcohen5294 2 года назад
And the failed attempts with joining nato is one of the security risks that Russia is fighting for… I do believe Putin is making it worst by using force, but that is why China agrees with Putin granted Russia isn’t in a war with Ukraine Putin is… until everyone agrees this world would be a better place with all nuclear weapons being holsterd it will be world war 3 with Putin not russia once the threat is eliminated then the threat is still a threat… so who is the threat? Russia? Ukraine? Putin? China? Well everyone is a threat to someone and that’s what will drag this out… I will say this isn’t ww3 this is just one bit of a distraction… ww3 will be when China and russia attack and everyone submits or dies.
@fruitenantcolonel9207
@fruitenantcolonel9207 Год назад
Aaah early February, lovely time! Back when we all assumed that the fall of Ukraine, Moldova and the Baltics was a given and the only question was if Russia could defeat NATO in Poland and Romania too!
@CommanderNissan
@CommanderNissan Год назад
Let’s be fair to the comparison here. As far as being able to carry a campaign, they’re both bad prospects. The us wouldn’t have the supplies to invade Russia with only 3000 troops, and would likely be forced into defensive operations. But there are some differences between them after that. Unlike their West Berlin counterparts in the Cold War, the troops in east Europe have the support of allies, lines of logistics and supply, and lines of retreat. I think a more accurate comparison would be the troops in west Germany, as they’d be in the exact same position. Not just West Berlin.
@Prophetess777Margarita
@Prophetess777Margarita 2 года назад
Prior to the invasion, the US must heavily fence Ukraine with its military force to avoid Russia's attack just for a humanitarian reason as a world's peacekeeper because we all know Ukraine's military can't parallel to Russia. I cried a lot for this conflict and pray God will intervene and stop this war.
@agustingonzalez4631
@agustingonzalez4631 2 года назад
There bringing There military to Rusias border. USA didn't like that when Rusia try to set some weapons in Cuba. Why are they being so hypocritical, imagine military bases from Rusia down in México, that would start a fucking war, and everyone would say of course that's to be expected. Then don't fucking do to other's ............. to you. USA should stop looking to make war on every fucking country. Rusia is not Irak or Afghanistan, where you can bomb the hell out of there country with no consequences. One day the dog is going to bite back and it's going to hurt alot.
@RANDOM-pf1ve
@RANDOM-pf1ve 2 года назад
Any1 with a brain can easily see that Russia simply don't want NATO surrounding them. How would you feel if you wake up tomorrow and see that your neighbors are not buddies of your enemies and having to live know that your enemies are always right next door to you? That will never sit well with any1.
@james-im1sj
@james-im1sj 2 года назад
Lol you can tell this guy never been in the service. We have thousands of troops in Europe.
@sangbeom6245
@sangbeom6245 2 года назад
US has over a dozen major military installations and over 60k force in Europe (considering probably 85% are non-combatants). Europe has their own too. Ukraine is covered under the EU Defense Clause and is unofficially supported by NATO already indirectly. This guys logic is off.
@geraldmicallef6575
@geraldmicallef6575 Год назад
We have to give this guy a chance ,to make us understand something .
@cultugarvealgarve7380
@cultugarvealgarve7380 Год назад
Machines and air superiority, seems nowadays more important, as we can see.
@col.waltervonschonkopf69
@col.waltervonschonkopf69 2 года назад
I am writing this comment when it has been 4 or 5 days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. Russia called the bluff and the Russian army is now at the gates of Ukraine! Though Ukrainians are putting up a staunch fight for their homeland and their independence. Kudos to them.
@TheJeskin3707
@TheJeskin3707 2 года назад
Как независимость там бандыревцы и фашисты
@TheJeskin3707
@TheJeskin3707 2 года назад
Людей используют как живой щит
@TheJeskin3707
@TheJeskin3707 2 года назад
Ты не понимаешь просто нечего европейц
@TheJeskin3707
@TheJeskin3707 2 года назад
Донбасс 8 лет был под огнем всу и фашистов
@TheJeskin3707
@TheJeskin3707 2 года назад
Независимость какая говори мне в чем мы просто бьем фашистов и всу и только их, а не мирных граждан . Независимость украины не было им управляет НАТО с америкой откуда подумай наемников много и ракетниц
@kamalabrahman6925
@kamalabrahman6925 2 года назад
US mobilised 3000 armies to Ukraine but the weapons were still left in Kabul. Donno whether JB is still sleeping or not when he sent these soldiers.
@marcomelchionda9930
@marcomelchionda9930 2 года назад
3000 armies.
@brucewayne6569
@brucewayne6569 2 года назад
😀😅😀😅
@wilburstalker-li4nr
@wilburstalker-li4nr 2 года назад
Biden will send them weapons when he feels like it, hmmmm
@gigelpasat7239
@gigelpasat7239 2 года назад
😁😁😁 funny.
@davidrussell8783
@davidrussell8783 2 года назад
Biden is busy getting his but wiped before he gets his ass kicked.
@Arachnoid_of_the_underverse
@Arachnoid_of_the_underverse 2 года назад
Ther is also the unknown China problem ,who may take advantage of any conflict to grab ground of their own making a second front.
@thomasjgrihorash5312
@thomasjgrihorash5312 2 года назад
Infinity the space between ears GOD BLESS US All too hear
@someguy1907
@someguy1907 2 года назад
Because everyone knows in video game logic One squad of 4 soldiers can easily take down 100,000 Russian troops
@lii1Il
@lii1Il 2 года назад
There's also the point of anytime Russia (or China) wants more land, they can threaten the nuclear option, and keep expanding. Knowing Russia will do this, US can place their 3000 troops and say, go ahead and cross the line, knowing if they do.... well you know the rest. Logically it's better to take down a starving weak bear, then one that has grown strong.
@chrisoreilly3481
@chrisoreilly3481 2 года назад
Why would they threaten nuclear? If they want the land why would they use nuclear weapons. You realize that would be stupid because of the nuclear fallout and the land would be useless. So it makes no sense to do that
@lii1Il
@lii1Il 2 года назад
@@chrisoreilly3481 I don't know why Putin threatened to use the nuclear option. My best guess is he's a closet psychopath. To even suggest such a thing in his position is so beyond irresponsible it's hard to assume otherwise.
@loyaltytothearkadianate
@loyaltytothearkadianate 2 года назад
@@lii1Il psychopath....well it's not impossible
@lii1Il
@lii1Il 2 года назад
@@loyaltytothearkadianate lol. Yes politics that makes sense. I'm wondering how strong China Russian relations are along their boarder? I never hear of any drama there?
@loyaltytothearkadianate
@loyaltytothearkadianate 2 года назад
@@lii1Il I believe they had some small banter nothing much. They've had good relations for years as far as I know
@silviuc.5551
@silviuc.5551 2 года назад
You forget the local Poland and Romania's military. I think Poland's And Romania's combined forces cand match those 150,000 russians.
@ZESAUCEBOSS
@ZESAUCEBOSS Год назад
Honestly those 3,000 troops were probably just meant to be 3,000 forward air controllers in the event of a war
@yzz9833
@yzz9833 2 года назад
While this is a decent example of how game theory works, it is no where near the reality. It’s silly to consider those countries militaries as being controlled entirely by nato, especially when their sovereignty is concerned.
@jamiecoxe7327
@jamiecoxe7327 2 года назад
Finally an explanation that I understand. Great job 👍. Based on the location of the token US forces, we appear to be making a fair gesture in this situation. As we could have placed our troops further east, giving Russia less opportunity and increase the likelihood of war.
@Nickster292
@Nickster292 Год назад
The Carpathians will be close to impenetrable even with modern day stuff so I doubt they'll give that in
@coolmoon7579
@coolmoon7579 2 года назад
Interesting 😁✨
@scotts6067
@scotts6067 2 года назад
This video made me LOL. The area between those 2 lines are called sovereign states and there is no way in hell will their borders change short of a nuclear war. The will never be negotiated away. To say that the goal of IR is to negotiate away other countries in order to prevent war is just silly. States can only be counted on doing one thing....and that is what's ever in their best interest. Poland will fight and the US will help. This war will not end until Russia is pushed back to their original boarders. Those 3,000 additional troops are a JTF capable HQ. A Joint Task Force HQ is capable of running an entire theater of war. That is no joke. You're entire theory here is simply wrong....no offense. As someone who helped write the national defense strategy for Russia and the "stans" in my previous life I can attest while your theory is vaguely interesting its way off.
@BlueLeader1
@BlueLeader1 2 года назад
Agreed. This video is tripe.
@matsuz100
@matsuz100 Год назад
I agree he treats it like a video game.
@simonpersonaltrainer5624
@simonpersonaltrainer5624 2 года назад
Poland has a big army with state of the art equipment. The American / British troops are just a show of support.
@indrakurniawan6359
@indrakurniawan6359 2 года назад
What poland would do? Join part in ukraine vs russia conflict? Thats a que for bigger war.
@SLANGKITZ
@SLANGKITZ 2 года назад
Ok.. And what Russia - China ? 🙋‍♂️🤌😎
@simonpersonaltrainer5624
@simonpersonaltrainer5624 2 года назад
@@indrakurniawan6359 They would do nothing. But a big, strong, modern Polish army with a show of support from British and American allies is enough to deter further escalation.
@indrakurniawan6359
@indrakurniawan6359 2 года назад
@@simonpersonaltrainer5624 we should see that in real time event. Just wait the worst to come.
@simonpersonaltrainer5624
@simonpersonaltrainer5624 2 года назад
@@indrakurniawan6359 I predict nothing will happen. Lots of saber rattling. But rest assured that if something did happen they wouldn't be even given a crumb of Polish Soil.
@xXx_Baba-Smoker_xXx
@xXx_Baba-Smoker_xXx Год назад
3:54 it is fucking HILARIOUS that just 7 months ago we thought this was possible LMFAO 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
@fidelfernando8244
@fidelfernando8244 2 года назад
Those 3k must be techs & Specs ops .Just for monitoring the war.
@Jake-rs9nq
@Jake-rs9nq 2 года назад
This video is from before the war started
@cu806
@cu806 2 года назад
Those are probably well trained well equipped troops. Who have quick strike capability. There are also quite a few US bases in Europe
@just-incase3483
@just-incase3483 2 года назад
In the words of LT Dick winters, “we’re paratroopers…we’re supposed to be surrounded”!!
@ruselladler425
@ruselladler425 2 года назад
no its different time those days the 101st and 82nd airborne division were bunch of tough guys with lack of equipment and supply could held the nazi. but nowadays those division its filled with LGBT people who more concern about pride month rather than training with hard condition like E company with CPT Sobel. it will be very unbalance if LGBT Paratroops have to fight with Russian more over if the Russian its From Siberia
@notxarbsenoj9231
@notxarbsenoj9231 2 года назад
@@ruselladler425 You personally know the people in these divisions or are you just making assumptions.
@ruselladler425
@ruselladler425 2 года назад
@@notxarbsenoj9231 not assumptions just look at their official Publication account
@notxarbsenoj9231
@notxarbsenoj9231 2 года назад
@@ruselladler425 Again making assumptions their are thousands hundreds of thousands of soldiers. Why do you care anyway?
@ruselladler425
@ruselladler425 2 года назад
@@notxarbsenoj9231 Not Really care actually just funny to see how come the most legendary division in US Army Become Division with political issues such as LGBT. and umm i love to follow Such a Military social media not just those i Mention but also several Division and Regiment just for fun and bit a Research. I dont really hope those Division have to fight with Russian since if that happend would be end of the world.
@lazybrando1292
@lazybrando1292 Год назад
What about the troops that are from those countries?
@masterchief272
@masterchief272 Год назад
So its like a “i dare you” move.
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