Why India Will Become $55 Trillion Economy By 2047 | Krishnamurthy Subramanian 

I wish India and its people every success. 🙏🏻

Success to India and its people. Another member of the "global majority" fulfilling its potential and abilities.

Thanks all for your comments. To those who have not understood my $55 tn prediction for India in 2047, in the video, I explain from 19:00 to 25:05 the economics behind the same. Remember that for prediction in US$, what we need is the GDP growth in $, which equals nominal GDP growth in ₹ - depreciation of ₹ vs $. Those who are commenting that the growth to $55 tn is not possible, make sure that you are not confusing nominal GDP growth with real GDP growth. While India's real growth has been 7%+ since 1991 on average, nominal growth has often been in double digits. But $ growth has been lower bcos depreciation of ₹ vs $ has been 3-3.5% p.a. bcos inflation had been >7%. But post 2016, as I explain, this has changed. From 19:00 to 25:05, I've explained first E&Y's prediction of $26 tn and then described why their prediction misses important developments in India's macro-economy.

Indian ppl will have the last laugh on all those naysayers 😂 As an investor in India, i can tell many multi millionaires will be made in coming yrs 🤘😁 The demography dividend n the educated workforce will be in high demand going forward so never bet against a rising sun 😎🙏

Finally!! Thank you Lin for having a prominent economist from the global South especially from India 🙏

They said that 25 years ago too.

A good comedy is need for this show.

As an Indian American, I say it's possible but I'm not sure about the infrastructure growing sufficiently with so many people. And the culture of littering has to stop for the country to be taken seriously. For people not used to it, it's not pleasant.

Gotta give credit to Krishnas Wife. She must be a great listener with great endurance. Krishna spoke literally for 40 minutes straight.

This guy is nuts... When the dollar goes kaput in 10 years time not just India but 20 other countries will have larger GDP than america.😂

I was laughing so hard I fell out of my chair.

Real growth of 7% he said, whatever he is smoking must be good.

India will implode due to the inequality of distribution of wealth, racial politics, caste system which is still very much alive, corruption and too many differing views among the political parties...good luck India!

Spoken as a diaspora Indian

Their GDP number is holy cow manure

This guy is really into himself.

India: I will be top GDP country. CIA: No you wont : )

Theoretically, India could grow significantly due to readily available energy in Russia and now Saudi Arabia. If India grows while the USA simultaneously shrinks (and it will) then India could in theory pass the USA up

The hubris in the comments section is palpable. I want to remind the naysayers - What goes up comes down. Change is the only constant in this world. India was the largest economy in the world before the British invasion and occupation. Then it crashed to the bottom of the pile under British rule. I won't be surprised if India regains the top position in the future.

Sorry, not happening 🙏

So his numbers are only marginally more optimistic than Goldman Sachs. So when I see the stupid and mean comments below I want to ask is Goldman Sachs nuts too?

I mean GDP is meaningless unless India wants to fight a war or something when it will have 4 times the population

"Lots of questions there!" Haha David asks 10 questions at once

Krishnamurthy is a smart, intelligent economist. Not suprising given he is a graduate from the prestigious University of Chicago. One of the best Universities for Economics.

Looking at the current temperatures there, they will probably cook first.

Yes, but not if ambient temperatures is above 50 degrees celcius & is the norm in summer 2070 in large swatches of India. It is also subject to water availability. Even if China does not abstract one drop of water in tibet for diversion into the central plains or elsewhere, for how long (as in when will the last big glacial fields vainish in tibet?) & how many acre feet will the glacial meltwater continue to flow into India say post 2050/60? Issue is antropgenic climate change, its impact on current ambient sea levels, fresh water availability, ambient future temp, agricultural output & ocean acidification. That will be the same issues facing not only theo US, China, Mid east, Europe, Austraila, etc. Heat to much off, sea level rise & fresh water availability? 😊

India will be on a S-curve, not exponential infinite growth. The current situation is that they only need to remove roadblocks to grow. When all of those roadblocks are removed, growth will be a lot slower.

Indeed, digital infrastructure should be completely a public good.

India may or may not grow at 8-10% pa going forward... but what will certainly help India beat US GDP much faster than the Goldman Sachs prediction is the *"de-dollarisation" factor!* As "de-dollarisation" catches up... the currency exchange rate between US dollar and Indian Rupee will diminish! That process will *leapfrog the Indian GDP to its Purchasing Power Parity levels* which currently stands at *$14.594 trillion* (PPP; 2024) instead of $4.038 trillion (nominal; 2024). Once you apply the 7-8% growth rate on this GDP figure and extrapolate... you will find that *India beats US GDP by 2030-35!*

NIce, Thanks for the talk

Fantastic video 👌👌👌

Quite well articulated!

Nothing wrong with low women participation I think. All countries with high women participation in work force eventually faced reducing population and hence lower gdp growth

Biggest BS!

Indian like to talk talk no action this guy one of them.😂😂😂😂😂

I want what he is smoking

From 4 trillion to 55 T in less than 25 years??? impossible. By 2100, very possible.

It's pretty optimistic and would be good to find out if it comes true or not. We'd either be dead by then or will have long forgotten his numbers even if still alive. I wish he would just do a 3 or 5 year projection instead.

Main thing India has is that it is not leveraged (yet) with paper investments. The people's wealth are mostly in physical assets and cash or near cash savings. The rest of the world is loaded with this stuff (derivaties, stocks, bonds, pension promises... etc). If that all implodes, so does the imaginary wealth.

Today, India has 800 million Indians who are avoiding Starvation by getting a Charity of 5 Kg of Grains per month.

The best thought on Indian economy is Dr. Subramanyan

Great interview! He may sound too optimistic and may appear to consider only best case scenarios, but nobody with the knowledge of India at ground level will disagree with his observations. Predictions are predictions, of course!

This is possible if Modi government carry out deep structural reforms and attains 10 percent growth rate, which seems impossible in a democracy and fragile global economy and politics. Indian economy will grows at about average 7 percent. India then will be a 22 trillion USD economy in 1947, a semi developed nation just where China stands today. India will be a second biggest economy by 2075.

Don’t believe it for a second.

@33:09 onwards, perfectly said. I belong to Mr.Subramanian's generation. I'm Rajesh Sundar Subramanian from Tamilnadu, India. I have worked in the USA for 2 years, UK for 4 yrs, Singapore and year and sometimes in Germany and back to India. Believe in me, living in India is no were inferior to the west. In fact we in India have better life than many other countries in the world. I'm presently in Hyderabad and it's a beautiful city to live.

Excellent analysis ❤❤❤

India with 50 trillion economy with current level of poverty will be a nightmare. 😅

Brain drain is only a problem towards the later years of development. Right now India is educating more people from college than needed. So even if some people go away, it's still fine.

Such predictions were made for the Japanese economy in the early eighties.

It all comes down to mass skill development and proper urban development. These are two factors that are missing in India and need to be addressed at scale urgently. Land and Labour reforms are also ever present headaches.

hopium in the pipe! What you smoking on?😂

It would not happen, real Indian pottential for rapid growth would be mainly exhausted by 15 trillion which too is more than 4 times than now in nominal terms .... The journey from 15-20 trillion would be very slow and perhaps will never happen .... In ppp terms it will just double and the pottential would be exhausted. In per capita gdp terms nominal 10000 would exhaust indias pottential ..... In ppp terms 20000 per capita. .... Yes in ppp terms the growth would be much slower just double of that than today because the inflation would follow higher domestic consumption.... And the rich getting supper rich while poor remaining poor growth model of india indicates that domestic market will not grow that much, and would be dependent on imports a lot specially energy and raw resources ... Indian cities will remain a mess, its transportation networks will remain inefficient, and lack of innovation will continue to plague india, the trade deficit by this time would be high enough that nothing more could be targetted. The gov debt will be reaching its peak sustainable levels. Look when you dont control you population and do not wish to fundamentally change structure and culture of population, boom in banking services, infrastructure, connectivity and education can only lead you so far, but no further...

India will be 175 crore population in 2047 With inflation of 4to 5% and GDP even with 5% India GDP should be 30 trillion

cant drink the water or eat the food without going to the er...

India ,the ground reality is it's peace ful to leave a descent life... no anti capital protests...

Interesting discussion, I am a fan of your program as a student of economics. As a 62 years old Indian economist, and not an MBA, I find it funny how mathematicians, commerce students and MBAs who study more of micro economics take a position of macro Economist in India. I am fighting against it. I became a businessman, hence I avoid teaching economics to orhers. We have some great macro Economist in India who are now directing Modi government. Thank God this person was not allowed to continue as our CEA. We had foreign interference, especially from USA and its Stooges, in our elections to get the joker Rahul Gandhi as a PM. But, we survived! Modi will break the back of back stabbing countries, so called western friends in India. Japan should watch out! They should avoid taking risk with Indian brain. This ex CEA of India didn't know about de-dollarization effect and you didn't understand what Dr Jaishankar, our foreign minister "EAM", said. There will be a hypothetical BRICS currency for exchange rates only. Please follow our macro economists and not such jokers who do MBA and consider themselves as macro economist. You have some distinguished educated macro economists even in West. Please call them if you are unaware of a welfare capitalist macro economists in India. I love your program, hence it is a sincere advice.

I believe it we literally turning this place into s…

I really doubt USA is number one anymore

India with brics is a win win

It's not so much as India surpassing India is progressing steadily but it is also about decline of US which is also happening pretty well. Lol

India the largest economy for last 1700 odd years of the 2000 years and yet after centuries of colonization with in 75 years became the 3 rd largest economy,so i won't be surprised it will definitely beat American economy which is just running on borrowed time and debt , just doing ai gimmicks won't save it this time 😂

Currently most manipulated stock market in the world where derivatives trading is 400% of underlying cash,where dumb money is chasing heavily.

50 trillion at 2047 is too much lol. Maybe 20 trillion the most.

Amazing talks. Now they need Aladin's lamp to make it happen.

Average 2Tr. per year for the next 23years looks very very optimistic and very stiff. 10-17Tr. looks achievable. 🙏

David just see Indian stock market chart US stock analyst will stop calling bubbles in US market.

India's rate of growth is impressive but looking at global gdp with the US at 25, China 17 and rest < 5 Trln. does not make sense if India moves to say 3rd spot atm. 25 yr predictions are long shots with say even a 2 yr prediction risky lol

I enjoyed your guest today. He is very knowledgeable and argues a strong case

This guy Krishnamurthy is incompetent. Why did you guys give him a platform. Waste of time.

India is a great opportunity BUT the reason they haven't been able to scale anything and still struggle to be a home for anything of substance is the lack of infrastructure for anything. Companies have a huge problem building anything at scale in India because it's such a basket case doing anything concrete infrastructure wise, it has been this way for decades. It is driven by the fact they want to do it all themselves and "align" (for lack of a better word) with anyone to actually improve. This guy is a cheerleader which is great but his view is not a reflection of the reality in the streets or in the country itself, it's a LOT of wishful thinking about the future. India is largely like Nuclear Fusion, its greatness is ALWAYS right around the corner and just a few years out...but it's been like that for decades and decades. I hope they can get it all right and become a great power, i think it would be good for the world but i am suspect that it will happen. There is a reason many Indian's have come to America over the decades.

possible but implausible, India does not have hydrocarbons , energy equals economic activity and growth!

This person is a macro-economist and finance guy, who knows nothing about manufacturing. He just gives all the reports, numbers and conclusions nobody even understand. I guess he is a consultant to the government so he needs to sign high praise. Just doesn't sound very logical or concrete.

India would be a 26 trillion - 28 trillion dollars economy by 2047 not 55 trillion.

Insightful

Brilliant guy, disappointed he left the govt and moved back to private

We fail to realize that when you input time into your equation, it is believed that one has enough time in their favor. THIS IS A FALSE TRAIN of THINKING. US GDP happens to be a decade and a half behind global economic stability. Yes stability and not growth. In growth we are even further behind. There are markets here in the US that can be capitalized upon to boost our economic deficiencies.

Certainly, India will have a 55 trillion RUPEE economy!

50 years from now We will not have a World left!

Indian software programmers and engineers are developing most of the ai economy. Tens of thousands of companies over there and here. It's just being kept quiet . They may better than China .

During the Manmohan Singh Decade, our GDP grew 2.83 times in dollar terms. While Modi could manage to only double it. Even our GDP per capita and FII as % of our GDP inflow grew faster during Manmohan Singh era.

War hawks in US should be told their competition is not with China but India. China 1st. India vs US for 2nd and its likely US will be 3rd in the future.

And Never and Ever....... I bet

The Make in India Loin is today found eating grass in Lodi Gardens New Delhi.

100 trillion happen

Laughable

so you mean Canada actually, WEST India

No way the US will allow India to overtake it as No. 2. Nor will China favour a hostile India to be its No. 2!

It's an absurd projection defying Mathematics.

phele ya dekho ki 5 trillion kab bane ge i wish till 2030 is more then enough

In India they still take dumps in the streets. 😂

Do people even understand what "developed country by 2047" means? It means India will take 35-40 years to reach *where China is today* from when Modi started in 2014. Whereas China achieved this in 20 years -- i.e. half the time. China grew 9% a year for 20 years straight. And of course, by 2047 the world will have moved far ahead of where it is today. So India will still be 20 - 25 years behind China. Even in 2047. These are two facts that people need to face. These are not opinions. Now comes the excuse "Oh but China could do it because it's a dictatorship, while India is a democracy". Once again, look at the facts. India grew 8% for 6 years under Manmohan Singh. The Indian Rupee actually got stronger against the dollar for 2 years. Which is outstanding! This proves that even India as a democracy can do it. Even with a coalition Government. So stop making excuses as to why Modi's not able to do it despite having majority. Now we hear the second excuse: "Oh but that Manmohan Singh growth was in a different era" So now your excuse has changed? LOL! OK, even in this era, Minister Gadkari made India #2 in Highways in the world after the US. And Minister Piyush Goyal made India #2 in the world in Solar additions. This proves that *even in this era* India can achieve outstanding success -- IF the right people are in charge. According to many people including the Big Bull Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, India can grow at 11 or 12%. And why not? Those who think India cannot, do not have faith in India. The only question is whether Modi's leadership will enable this, or instead, come in the way of growth as it has in the last 9 years. In the last 9 years the average GDP growth rate was only 5.1%. This is half of the 9 to 12% growth India can achieve. This year the Government claims 8% GDP growth which is an exaggerated figure, because if this figure was true, we would see a roaring Indian economy. Instead we see 10%-30% of even IIT graduates are unemployed! This has not happened even when growth was 5% so for sure something is off. Also, the Indian Govt. has borrowed from heavily from abroad and spends this money and includes this in GDP growth, even though this was not India that made this money. So for such reasons the current number of 8% growth has to be taken with a pinch of salt. The real economy is not growing at 8%. Car sales for example are weak and getting weaker. Unemployment is still very bad, despite some recent improvement. Most everyone is in to the stock market as that's place people are making money, driving up valuations in mid caps and small caps to absurd levels. But not many are making money in business, unless you are where the Govt is spending money (it's favourites are highways, railways, defence and infrastructure). Overall, India's not growing at 8% - 9% a year straight since 2014 is sad and pathetic -- as the country has done this in the past, can do this, and deserves to be at the top. But it can only get there with a proactive leadership. Someone that is focused on the country, not on all politics all day. No matter which party he is from -- the focus has to be country not politics. Otherwise, none of this is going to happen. And don't come up with more excuses to blindly defend your favourite leader, because facts show otherwise. Let's hope Indians wake up and demand 9% progress no matter who is the leader. So far, Indians haven't. Think about India and not about the leader. Leaders come and go. The country remains. Progress is what matters to every citizen.

Hes a shill, down vote

Maintaining 8% growth for next 25 years is somewhat unlikely. But bro is subtly hinting if democracy takes its course and replace current government, then everything he said is off. Sounds like a partisan economist.

Are these guys talking Abt NEET exam???

Mumbai will be under water in 25 years. Not sure what you can produce in three feet of water.

Indian economy may be 100 trillion but per capita income is 100 rupees about 70% people. Indian economy is completely chronic capitalism . U don't know, really, grassroots situation....

He is underestimating usa 😂😂 wow he thinks usa will let Ind become worlds sole super power he needs to check the history Soviet union challenge usa and usa dismantled Soviet union and now china challenging usa and everyone knows china will lose at the end but these experts think india will surpass usa easily wow 😂😂

Lol the same pumped up propaganda from different angles shows coordinated propaganda efforts. Not sure how this 55 trillion dollar figure was reached after many other figures were being thrown around.

Yes if India remain as one country. You dont know US, as soon as India develops US will spend billions to split it into several independwnt states. So if u dont want troubles then stop interfering in others.

This is rubbish. I am not being racist but have you ever done business in India? Also India speaking English had a greater chance to power their economy alongside China in the same historical time period and "they could not do it". They don't and never will have a centralised government to organise this. India is and always will be just India.