Тёмный

Why only 30% of first round quarterbacks succeed 

Brett Kollmann
Подписаться 416 тыс.
Просмотров 370 тыс.
50% 1

Go to hawthorne.CO and use promo code filmroom10 to get 10% off your first purchase!
Instagram: @brett_kollmann
Twitter: @BrettKollmann
TikTok: @brettkollmann
One last thing, check out my podcast - The Bootleg Football Podcast! We are more than 80 episodes deep so far, and it can be found anywhere podcasts are distributed (Apple, Google, Spotify, Stitcher, RU-vid, etc).
BFP on Apple: podcasts.apple...
BFP on Spotify: open.spotify.c...
BFP on Stitcher: www.stitcher.c...
BFP RU-vid page: / @bootlegfootball

Опубликовано:

 

28 сен 2024

Поделиться:

Ссылка:

Скачать:

Готовим ссылку...

Добавить в:

Мой плейлист
Посмотреть позже
Комментарии : 1,3 тыс.   
@BrettKollmann
@BrettKollmann 2 года назад
QBs are hard to evaluate. But man if your team needs to find a good safety in the second round every year, I got you!
@BrianGlaze
@BrianGlaze 2 года назад
Undefeated at 2nd round safeties lol
@Primenumber19
@Primenumber19 2 года назад
One things that makes QB scouting harder than other positions is layman scouts do not have access to the interviews team conduct with the players, their coaches and teammates. Justin Fields might be a genius, he might be lazy, he might be both. I can’t know because I never spoke to him.
@versatillion15
@versatillion15 2 года назад
Brian Glaze like who?
@haldworkin1027
@haldworkin1027 2 года назад
In other words, Jaquan Brisker to the Jets at the top of the 2nd?
@davethomas1641
@davethomas1641 2 года назад
How much of a 1st rounders success is dependent on the team that drafts them? Commented early, Brent addresses quite well.
@funnyfacegamer1583
@funnyfacegamer1583 2 года назад
This video shows how much respect we should have Derek carr and Matthew Stafford. These guys were drafted to disaster franchises and still manage to have good-to great seasons despite the constant turnover in coaches and players.
@kevinhenry4047
@kevinhenry4047 2 года назад
And this is why I disagree with Brett in saying that a quarterback in a bad situation will always fail. I’m not saying a young quarterback on a bad team has to be a pro bowler and make the playoffs but you can be put in bad situations and still at least look like a competent starter. Guys like Darnold and Rosen weren’t just mediocre or subpar, they ranked in the bottom in a lot of major passing categories and you can’t say that’s all on coaching and the supporting cast. They would’ve most likely struggled even with good teams.
@HBG313
@HBG313 2 года назад
@@kevinhenry4047 coaching and supporting cast effects alot
@mactallica9293
@mactallica9293 2 года назад
But those qbs combined for 0 playoff wins on those teams. Not really failures but can't reach their ceiling
@Dawg-Bone
@Dawg-Bone 2 года назад
Matt Ryan too
@jeffredfern3744
@jeffredfern3744 2 года назад
Talent wins out. I disagree with Brett's entire idea. It's circular logic, fateful bull$h*t, only these teams will have good QBs cause they are teams that are good.
@kyokyo718
@kyokyo718 2 года назад
My favorite Herbert story is when the Chargers gave him a more advanced playbook and he was glowing at the opportunity to actually use his brain; He's a 4.2 Biology major in college and Oregon football had him playing checkers on Saturdays.
@incendiumaquila7605
@incendiumaquila7605 Год назад
Not checkers UNO lmao
@ektran4205
@ektran4205 7 месяцев назад
mario cristobal just had a terrible qbc and pgc herbert's last 2 years at oregon, herbert got pep hamilton as a nfl rookie
@margaretjiantonio939
@margaretjiantonio939 7 месяцев назад
He was a scholar athlete. I think he chose to stay in college one more year.
@NathanDean79
@NathanDean79 7 месяцев назад
Yea maybe he should have went to medical school instead.
@Whoyouwishyouwere
@Whoyouwishyouwere 7 месяцев назад
Too bad he can't hit water if he fell outta' a boat.
@Patrick-tt3ig
@Patrick-tt3ig 2 года назад
Love how Brett uses his past mistakes and learns from them, instead of burying them and considering himself a perfect genius. Everyone has to be able to do this, and most people can't.
@Brownie1904
@Brownie1904 2 года назад
Wich mistake did he do?
@Patrick-tt3ig
@Patrick-tt3ig 2 года назад
@@Brownie1904 just missed predictions. Not any serious mistakes or anything. Like when he mentioned not seeing Herbert as a first round talent
@Brownie1904
@Brownie1904 2 года назад
@@Patrick-tt3ig Ah. Ok. Thought I missed something big :D
@Harbkuwsvjrefyukndsaxcbnjtewd
@Harbkuwsvjrefyukndsaxcbnjtewd 2 года назад
Him and shomler are the best at owning their bad takes.
@robertandrews6915
@robertandrews6915 2 года назад
People have to think they're correct. Look at how people will argue about the dumbest things and they don't care if their family never speaks to them again if they can walk away thinking they were right. I work with a girl who acts like she knows everything and anytime a manager brings up something wrong she'll reply something like oh I knew that. I've seen her do shit any when it gets brought up, she says it wasn't her. That kind of attitude annoys the shit out of me. You don't always have to be right, but at least admit you don't know something and people will understand (most of them). I have no problem admitting i was wrong so it's alien to me why someone has to think they're always in the right, even about things that really don't matter.
@RaptorJezus27
@RaptorJezus27 2 года назад
I’ll never forget the 2014 Draft. I said the Texans should’ve drafted Manziel 1st overall lmao
@ugosmith7529
@ugosmith7529 2 года назад
Ooff, you dodged a bullet, signed: a browns fan
@Sam-hv7kj
@Sam-hv7kj 2 года назад
I was so big on him 😭😭
@RandomXbox
@RandomXbox 2 года назад
Dawg😑
@ssslimreaper42069
@ssslimreaper42069 2 года назад
i cried when the vikings passed on him! 😂
@calebqueen2090
@calebqueen2090 2 года назад
I was so sad when the Cowboys took Zack Martin over him
@FoxyKyle
@FoxyKyle 2 года назад
My QB philosophy: Draft the freak. If they bust, try it again. It’s the most important position in the game. Taking a conservative route out of fear, will limit the potential of a franchise for an era.
@faceurhell
@faceurhell 2 года назад
I agree, but I think it's not just about freaks in terms of arm strength or athletic ability, but freaks in terms of being a competitor. Joe Montana, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are perfect examples of these kind of freaks (Joe being Cool and calm, Peyton being the definition of a field general, and Tom with that fire and drive).
@t4d0W
@t4d0W 2 года назад
More like draft the freak you've seen/coached before when he was 14/15 and are confident about their instincts and takes well to coaching. That way you know their strengths and weaknesses and not try turn them to something in the pros that they are not. Because one constant of the QBs Kollmann screwed at evaluating was they turned into their best version of themselves beyond the college level.
@JJ-zr6fu
@JJ-zr6fu 2 года назад
You don't get to do it more than twice. You're acting like Mahomes is there every year.
@eli6797
@eli6797 2 года назад
@@JJ-zr6fu even then, mahomes had some standout games in college but he wasn’t considered a generation talent or the “It” guy coming out of college. He fell into a phenomenal system and developed very well. The only top tier type talent I’ve seen coming out of college recently is tlawrence given the fact that he has the height and arm strength (so physically gifted), has the pro qb intangibles, and can dominate in the pass and run game. Obv he’s on a bad team at the moment but he’s a prime example of a qb you would dream for in every draft
@justinmj6586
@justinmj6586 2 года назад
@@faceurhell So find a once in a generation guy? Ok, if they were falling out of trees everyone would have one.
@BrianGlaze
@BrianGlaze 2 года назад
On a serious note, one of my first thoughts on this before I watch the whole video is that evaluating QBs is very difficult because the league, offenses,etc are constantly changing and evolving over time so if an evaluator's criteria isn't evolving, then they will miss a lot.
@BrianGlaze
@BrianGlaze 2 года назад
Even then, you'll still miss because it's not just about evaluating well. There are so many factors that determine whether a QB will be successful
@coryjohnson2486
@coryjohnson2486 2 года назад
Great point
@bill2953
@bill2953 2 года назад
It's even more difficult if you drink during the day and listen to people like Mel Kiper.
@MaxPower-vf8kt
@MaxPower-vf8kt Год назад
Also the players are just that much better, in every way. If we view the approx. 72,000 NCAA players as a talent pool for NFL teams, less than 0.5% of players will be drafted/signed, fewer will make a 53-player team roster and maybe see game time. Meaning the difference in skill, speed and strength in the NFL makes almost makes it a different game. The QB position also benefits the most from imbalances between college teams. They can have the whole package, but their ability to perform is being largely boosted by the fact they’re a big fish, amongst a bigger school, playing in a small pond. Can they adapt, grow and survive when thrown in the ocean? They’re also the most consequential player on the team; the whole team is affected by their ability to perform at the required level. We hear the term “Franchise QB,” and many are drafted, expected to be the “Difference Maker,” a team needs to finally succeed. When they aren’t; are they a bust? Need more time? Or a different team/strategy/coach, like Stafford?
@Mezmorizorz
@Mezmorizorz День назад
He kind of danced around it and I'm surprised he didn't mention it, but the real reason (imo anyway) that people fail to project QBs so much is that the important stuff isn't really on film at all. Namely, are you a hard worker, are you smart, and do you handle criticism well. Sometimes you can see indirect evidence of this. Like Mac Jones had a body fat percentage comparable to mine mid season his final year at Bama, so I wasn't very surprised to see him not adapt to DCs figuring him out. Similarly, Jayden Daniels has grown such a huge amount at LSU that's it hard to imagine anything but injury derailing him. Outside of extremes like that though, you have to rely on the college coaches being truthful with you about the player because you just can't know. Though there is something to be said about the high mobility, tuck it and run guys are good for how NFL teams like to run themselves nowadays. You don't actually need to have your rookie QB play, I think Green Bay has thoroughly debunked the notion that you do, but if you do have them play, the mobile guys are going to be more effective while they learn how to QB.
@Evan-fw6wt
@Evan-fw6wt 2 года назад
its worth noting that most of these QBs like Allen and Mahomes were born into a fantastic system that was a perfect fit for them, however when Lamar took over for Baltimore the Ravens went from the most pass heavy offense under Flacco to the most run heavy in the league
@jacksonstone6146
@jacksonstone6146 2 года назад
Allen’s situation wasn’t ideal at first
@Revealingstorm.
@Revealingstorm. 2 года назад
@@jacksonstone6146 the bills went to the playoffs the year before he was drafted
@adamjv77
@adamjv77 2 года назад
@@Revealingstorm. and there was about 30% of the roster back from that team when Josh got there. They started a rebuild the season before and made the playoffs despite that with the help of a very easy schedule and some luck. They continued the teardown after that season and then drafted Josh to, basically, a new roster. Dude was throwing to Kelvin Benjamin as his #1 WR and Zay Jones as his #2... one of the worst WR tandems I can recall. Granted he wasn't great, but anyone who watched him that rookie season post elbow injury, saw a kid coming around.
@Sebastian-rr6yu
@Sebastian-rr6yu 2 года назад
@@adamjv77 crazy how kelvin went to TE soon after that lmao
@MrGhostface85
@MrGhostface85 2 года назад
@@Revealingstorm. The 2018 Buffalo Bills had a third of their cap space gone due to $53 million in dead cap, two of our starting O-linemen were gone due to sudden retirement leaving or offensive line to be arguably the worst in the league, our QB coach never coached at that position before (predominately a WRs coach), and the veteran QB in the room was...Nathan Peterman. Josh Allen wasn’t supposed to start for a while, but due to Peterman being himself, Josh Allen got to sit for one half and was forced to come out in the season opener against the Ravens during garbage time.
@BrianGlaze
@BrianGlaze 2 года назад
In all fairness in regards to the Justin Herbert pick, people are using hindsight to criticize you. No one outside of Oregon fans believed he would be great. There should be a lot of grace for QB evaluation.
@elijahwise3060
@elijahwise3060 2 года назад
Exactly, he was trash at Oregon. Even the NFL analysts were not sold on him.
@heimpai2282
@heimpai2282 2 года назад
@@elijahwise3060 He was not trash smh..He didn't have 3 wr's drafted in the 1st round, hell none of his wr's got drafted..4 different systems in 4 seasons just in college..His junior year he was projected as the #1 pick but came back his senior year when lsu went on that insane run..
@mactallica9293
@mactallica9293 2 года назад
I mean he was a top pick for a reason lol he's similar to Allen physically
@gregsudol5986
@gregsudol5986 2 года назад
@@heimpai2282 exactly lol. People still don’t get it. They can’t contextually comprehend what he dealt with at Oregon. The guy is a superstar
@JJ-zr6fu
@JJ-zr6fu 2 года назад
He still isn't great though he puts up pretty stats but not wins.
@usmnt4423
@usmnt4423 2 года назад
I can’t wait for Brett to absolutely whiff on a big quarterback who’s a mechanically sound, polished pocket passer. The chaotic randomness of the NFL Draft demands it.
@TheUnnamedAssailant
@TheUnnamedAssailant 2 года назад
Could be talking about Rosen or Darnold with that description, both were very sound and polished, both thrived in pro style offenses, both had good strong arms and great accuracy. By all accounts they should’ve thrived.
@aaron1299
@aaron1299 2 года назад
@@TheUnnamedAssailant darnild was far from polished in college lol, he had a big arm and that’s about it, jets just fell in love in the pre draft
@josephbarlow5115
@josephbarlow5115 Год назад
Rosen was a polished pocket passer in college in a pro style offense
@85isaboat53
@85isaboat53 7 месяцев назад
Bo nix has entered the chat
@EMan-hr5vf
@EMan-hr5vf 2 года назад
In the case of Herbert probably the most unnoticed factor that caused him to hit the ground running in the NFL aside from superior scheming was that back in Oregon, he was maintaining a 4.0 GPA in a difficult major while also being the starting qb. And when he got to the NFL he could put all of his brain power into football which caused his development to spike rapidly.
@ektran4205
@ektran4205 7 месяцев назад
PEP HAMILTON
@FamousDexxx
@FamousDexxx 2 года назад
Two things I was left pondering from your criteria at 17:20 1. If its "Destination over Everything", how does "bad franchises" approach picking QBs in the draft? Should they simply pick based on tools and coachability? Or have a bigger focus on leadership? (ie. I would probably say Burrow scores higher on leadership than tools) 2. In theory, Trey Lance should be the posterboy for these 3 criteria's, as he seemingly covers all three, so will be interesting to see how he pans out Great video as always Brett! Looking forward to draft szn!
@RubenSilva-tk4yb
@RubenSilva-tk4yb 2 года назад
"Bad franchises" should hire the right coach to run the right style/scheme O for the QB. They should also hire the right GM that will draft players to best support that scheme/style. Otherwise you end up with, at best, a Matt Stafford in Detroit situation.
@kingarthur3236
@kingarthur3236 2 года назад
What it means is you can't turn a franchise around by just drafting a quarterback. You need a good coaching team (bonus points if their style matches up with the quarterback) and a general manager who can build a decent supporting cast.
@Johncornwell103
@Johncornwell103 2 года назад
Bad teams if they truly want to become great is look at the talent they have and what it can do better than anyone else in the league to win games on each side of the ball. Then make that their priority. Even if they have the first pick in the draft and a Joe Burrow type of QB is there but there defense is best suited for QB pressure, and someone like Nick Bosa is also available you draft him instead of the QB. The 85 bears, 49ers in the 80s, Steel Curtain Steelers best exemplify what I mean.
@Johncornwell103
@Johncornwell103 2 года назад
@Chris Morris Exactly.
@jhvlen
@jhvlen 2 года назад
What I've learned from That Franchise Guy for that answer of how bad franchises should approach drafting QBs is that they straight up shouldn't draft one until they create a good situation. Look at the Lions; they're a textbook situation of what to do BEFORE drafting a QB rather than the Jags who hoped Trevor Lawrence would fix all of their problems; I wouldn't be surprised if Detroit becomes destination #1 for a draft prospect sooner rather than later. Similar situation with New York; instead of giving up on DJ off rip, bringing in Daboll and building a good *situation* to fairly evaluate that QB and if they don't see an elite ceiling, THEN finding the QB, rather than vice versa.
@thyha
@thyha 2 года назад
Hey Brett, as someone from Germany who never played any football or watched the game for quite a while, I'm learning a lot from your content to better understand this beautiful sport I fell in love with. Thanks a lot.
@carbonzo6
@carbonzo6 2 года назад
I like how Chris simms got all these right. He hasn’t missed since dak presscott
@Soccercrazyigboman
@Soccercrazyigboman 2 года назад
Dak walked into a great situation in Dallas. Any other place and he woulda flamed out.
@yoboiboy4182
@yoboiboy4182 2 года назад
@@Soccercrazyigboman dallas went 4-12 the year before dak. Three of the wins were from romo. The three backup qbs combined for 1 win.
@ektran4205
@ektran4205 7 месяцев назад
DAK JUST PLAYS LIKE A 3RD ROUNDER
@pokedez748
@pokedez748 2 года назад
My favourite takes back on 2017 was the people who said Allen should switch to TE and Lamar to WR
@mactallica9293
@mactallica9293 2 года назад
All I heard was Allen had no pocket presence. Then rookie year he evaded so many sacks
@Corvilux52
@Corvilux52 Год назад
There's a lot of variables in most positions but there's a lot more in QBs. System, surrounding talent, talent of the QB itself, chemistry, there's a lot. It's easy to get it wrong. It the end of the day it's a team sport. It's never just one guy. QBs don't win rings, it takes a whole team effort.
@Luke-zj1ku
@Luke-zj1ku Год назад
Ranking Tua and Hurts above Herbert does not seem so crazy after this year. Maybe not the right choice but CERTAINLY not a crazy choice.
@ektran4205
@ektran4205 7 месяцев назад
flores vs mcdaniel
@lukedaboss336
@lukedaboss336 Год назад
14:50 honestly it’s been a good take this season
@lukedaboss336
@lukedaboss336 Год назад
great*
@samuelault4723
@samuelault4723 2 года назад
I think people really started to wake up to the “destination over everything” with the 2021 draft. I remember seeing tons of takes that would say the most successful Qbs will be Tlaw and whoever goes to the 49ers
@RaymondGOAT
@RaymondGOAT Год назад
I think you should re-visit the Tua,Hurts, and Herbert take now that all 3 looking good…I mean Tua has health issue but we knew that from the start
@rj6110
@rj6110 8 месяцев назад
I was going to complain about Jared Goff being a borderline hit but I see this is a year old. I think he's earned it now!
@thomascafc
@thomascafc 7 месяцев назад
Yeah he played so well this year
@ericclaeyborn3600
@ericclaeyborn3600 2 года назад
I had Herbert as my top QB in the draft, and everyone thought I was crazy. Now, he's the best young QB in the NFL, imo.
@odysseus1660
@odysseus1660 2 года назад
The first year I actually got in to the draft, I chose Herbert as my guy, i saw all the flack he was getting without anyone taking in to account all the things he had to deal with during his college career. I now have no desire to try and predict the draft again im just going to keep my 100% record
@rizkyanandita8227
@rizkyanandita8227 2 года назад
Draft is a crab shoots. Get out while you are ahead.
@elijahwise3060
@elijahwise3060 2 года назад
What's your QB ranking this year ?
@odysseus1660
@odysseus1660 2 года назад
@@rizkyanandita8227 yeah it really is, it depends on situation unless you're a special talent
@odysseus1660
@odysseus1660 2 года назад
@@elijahwise3060 I really like Malik Willis but im heavily biased as a steelers fan and wanting us to have a QB I might actually like as a person, but honestly I have no clue about this class
@elijahwise3060
@elijahwise3060 2 года назад
@@odysseus1660 Yeah, he's got a lot of potential, I like Corral too even though people are low on him. Pickett has a lower sealing but he can be a good starter in NFL too me like Derek Carr. I can already imagine myself next year reading this and looking like a clown lol.
@thurantpnh6687
@thurantpnh6687 Год назад
One year later, projecting Tua and Jalen Hurts as better QBs isn't as crazy as it once was.
@booker4984
@booker4984 6 месяцев назад
Jalen hurts and Tua are not elite QV’s
@nathanrivera4953
@nathanrivera4953 2 года назад
I think Cris simms has the best grasp on QBs looking back on his track record.
@jamesnevius2276
@jamesnevius2276 2 года назад
Yeah people can't stand simms some reason but ig you actually check the history of these guys hes been by far the best at predicting qbs.
@purpledurple621
@purpledurple621 2 года назад
I was literally going to comment this
@TheSoundwave92
@TheSoundwave92 2 года назад
Chris Simms got a lot of flack for putting Lamar as his qb1 in 2018 which wasn't exactly wrong looking back but he didn't have the ridiculous ceiling that Allen has. But he is actually really good at evaluating QBs
@williejohnson5172
@williejohnson5172 2 года назад
@@TheSoundwave92 : Lamar was Heisman Trophy winner, unanimous MVP, has a better winning percentage than Allen and went to the playoff 3 straight seasons before getting injured, and you are still talking about Allen's ceiling being ridiculously higher than Jackson's. Allen hasn't even reached Lamar's floor yet. Brett didn't mention this aspect of qb evaluation. The euphemistic "Face of the Franchise" syndrome. The perception that you so eloquently articulated. That's why QB's like Daniel Jones, and Rosen, and Darnold and Drew Lock can get drafted so high in the draft. Hell even Brett is talking nonsense about the team carrying Lamar when it was Lamar who took over a failing losing Flacco offense, and took the Ravens to the playoffs saving Harbaugh's job. Too many people get blinded by the "narrative" put out by the media and fail to evaluate these qbs on their own merits. Simms is good at filtering out the BS and even he admits he occasionally has gotten caught up in the narratives.
@JJ-zr6fu
@JJ-zr6fu 2 года назад
@@williejohnson5172 Yes because Jackson will breakdown and will have to really change his game during the same time Allen is really starting to learn the finite details of his game.
@paulknittel4815
@paulknittel4815 Год назад
I mean, at least the Tua & Hurts take didn't age all too bad...
@Enwhycee
@Enwhycee 2 года назад
So to sum it up, fit matters when drafting a QB. Or it takes a good coach to adjust schemes and playbooks to fit the QBs style
@peotski
@peotski 2 года назад
As a Wisconsin Badger fan, I was unsure what to think of Herbert until I saw him single handedly dismantle one of our best defenses in the Rose Bowl. I was sold and knew he was QB2 behind Burrow.
@BrodyKramer
@BrodyKramer 2 года назад
Shit he’s QB1 from the draft and really always has been
@TheRBReaper
@TheRBReaper 2 года назад
Brett I love this video. Now we gotta hear both 1) your take on last years quarterbacks based on your new grading system 2) what landing spots could setup a toolsy QB for great success Bet it becomes you’re most watched video(s) ever!
@A.F.Whitepigeon
@A.F.Whitepigeon 2 года назад
2) The Steelers. Arguably the best-run franchise in the leage. And their long-time starting QB just retired.
@maxstuart8481
@maxstuart8481 2 года назад
New comment, about the last point you made of traits for a successful QB: Destination. As a Browns fan, this is why I have no problem with the Browns taking Baker over Allen and Jackson… they are Better QBs, but I truly believe Baker is the only one who had the ability to overcome that pressure. Both Lamar and Josh had great, stable staffs that were patient and helped them develop. Baker has been with 4 HCs now, and while not perfect, he has brought Cleveland out of the dweller and we’re at least middle class now. For that, I will always have love for Baker.
@jtpromolab
@jtpromolab 2 года назад
The problem with evaluating a QB is that destination has more to do with the QBs success than the actual QB himself. Every single first round pick could have been successful IF they went to the right team. But, we don't evaluate the teams that are picking, we just evaluate the QB expecting them to develope in every system. I agree with you on Baker. I don't think ANYONE but Baker could have found any success in Cleveland. Unfortunately for Baker, he was drafted to a dumpster fire and somehow that becomes his fault when the fan base and media don't see development like they want.
@maxstuart8481
@maxstuart8481 2 года назад
@@jtpromolab I agree. I don’t think anyone would say that Baker ever had the upside of Allen or Lamar, but I think it’s fair to say that his upside has been hindered by the incompetence of the Browns organization. That’s why, as a Browns fan, I am more than willing to see what he offers this season. I’m terrified that the Browns are going to let him go and he’s going to make us pay. Having a Kirk Cousins/Derek Carr is a good thing for a franchise, and I fear Browns fans won’t know a good thing until it’s gone.
@martimxavier9690
@martimxavier9690 2 года назад
@@maxstuart8481 What's your take now that he's most likely gone and you guys have Watson?
@maxstuart8481
@maxstuart8481 2 года назад
@@martimxavier9690 I still am incredibly grateful for what Baker did for the Browns. Watson is better of course, but I stand by the fact that Baker was one of a kind in terms of dealing with the turmoil the Browns put him through, and bringing stability to the team at the most important position for 4 years. I may be off on this, but Baker has started more games for the Browns than any other QB since they returned. Baker gave me my best memories as a Browns fan so far. People love to hate him, and I guess I understand why, but I’ll always think of Baker well and root for him wherever he goes.
@jucerz
@jucerz 7 месяцев назад
Rewatching this video a year later as a Packers fan, destination is super important. Jordan Love wouldn't be the same player if he went to a struggling franchise
@XNINEZERO
@XNINEZERO 2 года назад
Herbert as not a first round pick is still not as bad as Kizer over Watson and Mahomes. That was an awful take, even for then, coming from someone who still largely believes in those "old school" QB evaluation criteria. Kizer stunk in college, particularly in accuracy and footwork. It was obvious he was going to be a zero.
@colten53
@colten53 2 года назад
He loved Christian Hackenberg too. That one confused me even back then, and I’m a Penn State fan. I believe he also loved the Osweiler trade to Houston at first too
@Qewb87
@Qewb87 Год назад
I think more weight needs to be given to teams offensive schemes, talent, and consistent offensive coordinators. Geno Smith and Tua are perfect examples this year. Can a select few QBs find success in spite of their surroundings?? Sure, but they are the exception and are impossible to predict.
@zuxzux
@zuxzux 2 года назад
It seems like a pretty strong argument can be made that the situation a QB gets drafted into can really determine an entire career. Get drafted to a bad team, with poor management, subpar coaching, and lack of roster talent (particular O-line) and that QB is going to struggle and likely fail.
@jdagreat4595
@jdagreat4595 Год назад
You also have to take into account teams are now drafting qb that fit their schemes vs their ability.
@averagejoe8849
@averagejoe8849 Год назад
That Tua and Hurts take is looking spot on now.
@TheHooft
@TheHooft Год назад
watching this now not so sure you were wrong about Jalen and Tua being better.
@timothystamm3200
@timothystamm3200 2 года назад
To add support for this the Bears T formation, which almost all modern offenses descend from, was designed for a Single-Wing Tailback to be converted to quarterback, and Glenn Scobey "Pop" Warner designed the Single-Wing Tailback position and arguably the formation for Jim Thorpe, who was not just American Football's first great star but an Olympic Athletics gold medalist.
@reallifelebowski4732
@reallifelebowski4732 2 года назад
Your comment is too spot on and sophisticated for 90% of these football illiterates to understand
@ektran4205
@ektran4205 7 месяцев назад
dennis erikson offense
@Ashurhadsrubal
@Ashurhadsrubal Год назад
Rating Tua and Hurts above Herbert isn't looking so bad now
@abriaangel
@abriaangel Год назад
Still sucks tbh.
@adubs365
@adubs365 2 года назад
Gotta say i respect a man who can make a “This Dumbass” graphic that loud and point it at himself. Thanks Brett great content
@cebokhumalo602
@cebokhumalo602 Год назад
I would like to get your opinion on Jalen and Tua during this season and the "regression" Allen seems to be experiencing. also on the resurgence of a guy like Geno Smith...
@matthewdigiacomo2580
@matthewdigiacomo2580 2 года назад
I saw Herbert and Allen being this good. To me, the two biggest keys to being a great QB is the ability to read a defense and the ability to make the throws. You can work with a QB on reading a defense. But you can not teach the arm. Plus... a great arm can help you cover up some of your other shortcomings. In my mock drafts, I had the Browns taking Allen No. 1 overall and I had the Dolphins taking Herbert (I felt Joe Burrow was the absolute No. 1 pick). Also, I am not sure if I was the only person, but certainly I had to be on a short list of people that thought Roethlisberger was the best QB in the 2004 draft.
@holdenrayl7953
@holdenrayl7953 7 месяцев назад
I just appreciate that it seems the media has mostly learned when we were evaluating QBs with all of the tools and they just need that polish. And yes, I am talking about the evaluation of Anthony Richardson and how he’s 100% going to be the next big thing in the NFL
@RKGrizz
@RKGrizz 2 года назад
Herbert and Rosen are my biggest misses in the past 10 years. I had Herbert as a 2nd/3rd round QB primarily because I was applying lessons learned during my Rosen evaluation. Herbert did not improve much over his 4 year tenure at Oregon much like how Rosen was his best during his freshman season. Seeing that many snaps without tangible statistical or mechanical improvement scared me off his talent.
@MNZGamin
@MNZGamin 2 года назад
Rosen wasn’t given a chance in the NFL to be honest. Dude was given a worse hand than maybe any first round QB in recent memory
@t4d0W
@t4d0W 2 года назад
@@MNZGamin Now I think of it the timing of guys like him who turn to 'what if' stories by arriving in bad spots makes me think. Because stable NFL franchises despite having a need for QB aren't going for retreads unless Rosen specifically has something that pops out about him. They are going to keep moving forward or address the QB situation in the way those current NFL franchise regimes want to move forward.
@kalebberkich5892
@kalebberkich5892 2 года назад
Draft OL, DL or defensive stars first round. Much easier to mess up a QB because their personality can play a large part of it as well as surrounding team. Always draft a safe pick like an OL, DL or best player available, pick QBs 2-5 less risk and can get a great QB. More QBs drafted, only lose a late round pick on a riskier position and then you aren’t wasting a QB every 3-4 years because they bust and you flip QBs like the Jets, Jags, cards and such do.
@supadupa6891
@supadupa6891 2 года назад
This is a knockout video man! You truly exposed the bullshit buzzwords these media draft talking heads use and these wannabe qb experts on the couch like to use; polished, pocket passers, prostyle offense, can make all the throws, etc. I also think a lot of these old leftover old guard scouts with old ways of thinking refuse to change their way of thinking and that's why qbs like Josh Rosen, Mitch Trubisky and Sam Darnald fail and Dak Prescott, Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson succeed. As for Justin Herbert and Pat Mahomes, they were hit with the Oregon and Texas Tech stereotypes as past qbs from those schools never been great. But you nailed it. What TRULY matters is; 1. Physical tools 2. Coachability 3. Destination Good talent + good coaching + good front office = success
@chrissimon3790
@chrissimon3790 2 года назад
Work ethic goes at the top but yeah I agree
@sportsmag6148
@sportsmag6148 2 года назад
If you want the best assessments on QB, Chris Simms has you covered, he hits on the majority of his picks, but still self scouts himself and owns up to his mistakes.
@vy7357
@vy7357 2 года назад
I'd be curious to see if the hit rate for first round QBs is significantly different than the hit rate for first rounders in general. It certainly feels that the first round selections, for all the hype they get, are not sure things, which is why you can see the Rams' reasoning for trading away those first round selections for proven talent.
@t4d0W
@t4d0W 2 года назад
The Rams picks are an in a different situation because by virtue they have late 1sts anyway. They can't even pick top 3~5 to try crack at another young QB prospect. So I guess the Rams upsold Goff AND their picks to another team with a true proven talent at QB in Stafford.
@vy7357
@vy7357 2 года назад
@@t4d0W Fair point on the picks being late first rounders anyways. It's important to remember that Goff was not an asset in that trade, the Rams had to add another first round pick for Detroit to take that contract.
@kevinkondo4284
@kevinkondo4284 Год назад
Please do a Biography about Colt Brennan (University of Hawaii). June Jones was his coach and mentor, and Mouse Davis was June Jones’ coach and mentor. Given your “origins of the spread offense” video, I think you can further this topic by illustrating the true benefits of the system, as well as highlight unconventional and non-pocket passer styles (to which you refer in this video) and mechanics through Colt’s game highlights. I suggest you start with Coach John Madden’s gushing comments about Colt during the televised 2008 preseason game between the Redskins and Colts.
@VeteranVandal
@VeteranVandal 8 месяцев назад
One other detail is that some teams are more capable of developing QBs than others. That adds some suckage for teams that suck, because very often the bad teams are bad at both evaluation and development. So some QB evaluation passes through the "how can we not screw this guy" metric. Having a very good coach helps
@ahoneyman
@ahoneyman 2 года назад
The Air Raid has gone through a significant change in QB over the years. Before it was built on a QB with a quick release, quick eyes, and pop gun arms. That's Case Keenum on a nutshell. Now it's based around athletes that can make things happen on the ground. Running is now the third read in a play instead of a RB quick out. That's a pretty big change in philosophy.
@jojokobayashi2637
@jojokobayashi2637 Год назад
He admitted how bad of a take him saying tua and hurts are better than herbert and then they absolutely turned up this year 😭
@mikechan231
@mikechan231 7 месяцев назад
I think the number 1 characteristics for a QB is the ability to win the no-win scenario: 4th n long, #1 WR is out of the game, can he deliver? This is just an example but how the players deals with this scenario is what’s going to determine success. These days, everyone looks at whether the QB can throwing on the run, arm strength, if they can run, but it’s all about the no-win scenario
@jamesholyfield3304
@jamesholyfield3304 Год назад
I feel like you was right with both evaluations both times , now and then . It’s just the game is changing and evolving year after year . The pro style polished quarterback was they key in the 2000s and 2010s and quarterbacks with that play style tend to win big . Drew , Peyton , Tom , Aaron . But defense specifically linebacker and safety’s are getting so good at reads and clogging up the middle & deep middle . So offenses & quarterbacks have to be more mobile to keep the box full or stacked and keep passing lanes open . Aka Lamar , Patrick Mahomes , Josh Allen , Russel Wilson , Cam Newton .
@jadonnwilliams3135
@jadonnwilliams3135 Год назад
Damn bro u gotta go take a look at this video again. Jalen hurts and Tua both might actually be better than Herbert now
@Sylvidian
@Sylvidian Год назад
We are 10 weeks into the 2022 season, a bit more than halfway, and suddenly, your Tua and Hurts over Herbert take doesn't seem so bad anymore, hahaha. However, I'm just a casual fan, so I'm not going to say they are better QBs than Herbert, but I do think that picking them over Herbert can be argued for because, as you said, DESTINATION IS EVERYTHING. However, even guys like Fields and Lawrence, who were seen as busts initially, now seem to be trending upwards when they got a better supporting cast/coaching staff. So, it seems as if that Destination matters, but can also be improved to make picks seem better. Just an interesting thought I wanted to share.
@joshuahitchins1897
@joshuahitchins1897 2 года назад
My opinion is our assessment of quarterbacks' performance is so tied into the offense as a whole that saying "will this quarterback be good" is more asking "will the offense of be good next year with this quarterback on it?" And considering you don't know who's going to where, assessing quarterback prospects is impossible. A quarterback needs a line and backs to block for them, a running game to get guys in the box, receivers and backs to get open and come down with it, and a coaching staff to get all of that to work. Imo, the entire perception of the league is way too quarterback focused, putting tons of praise or blame on them instead of the offenses as a whole. Ultimately, a quarterback is only one part of the offense, and one player, even a really good one, isn't going to completely change an offense. This is why the Saints can win without Brees (or Winston or whomever) and the Pats without Brady.
@kyleeverly9243
@kyleeverly9243 Год назад
14:50, to be fair, Tua and Hurtz are looking good this year
@zachle591
@zachle591 Год назад
I came to say the exact thing when I heard him say that lol
@bigmac137
@bigmac137 8 месяцев назад
The draft is so difficult too because you really can be drafted into a bad situation and succeed. Look at the Texans-they had a good but questionable quarterback, an exceptionally young skill position room, and their defense has never really been stellar. Granted, they made good coaching moves, but did anyone expect the Texans to win their division with CJ Stroud? Texans were thought to be a 6-7 win team and suddenly became a playoff noisemaker (not necessarily a superbowl contender yet, though), winning their division when it was all but handed to the Jaguars. Overall, though, I’ve always agreed that destination matters a lot more than people give it credit for, and I think this video does an excellent job of articulating that.
@DjDaDj3
@DjDaDj3 2 года назад
A lot of people in general could learn a lot from Brett in this video. Someone admitting they were wrong. analyzing why and how they were wrong, then coming to a conclusion on how to improve. Great stuff.
@plainrock-ik3se
@plainrock-ik3se 2 года назад
I'm a first time watcher of your video and I like how real you are and able to compare and learn from your mistakes very good video
@BrettKollmann
@BrettKollmann 2 года назад
Thank you!
@Lex-wj6fm
@Lex-wj6fm 7 месяцев назад
There’s a really cool dynamic between nfl and college where the game doesn’t fully translate. Baker mayfield, Johnny football light up the college gridiron but aren’t as efficient in nfl. Lamar Jackson is one qb in todays game that was stellar in both leagues.
@manny75586
@manny75586 2 года назад
For me I keep it simple. No one picks 100%, but I feel I do OK picking winners. I drafted Herbert in fantasy his rookie year. I was laughed at for about 5 seconds then spent the rest of the season rejecting trade offers. Pre Draft: 1. +arm strength 2. Accuracy on the deep ball 3. Can get ball out quick. 4. Are mentally tough Post draft: 1. Where were they picked 2. Where are they going 3. What weapons does he have For the pre draft criteria, I feel all of those things are the hardest to coach. If the long ball accuracy is good, the short accuracy is usually good. It's also much easier to coach up the short game. Post draft is a lot harder. The real wild care is where they are picked. In 2017 if the Bears had picked Deshaun Watson, I think he still would have been a great QB. I think he would have overcome Nagy's obvious defects. But he was also expected to be picked high. The fact that Trubisky was a bit out of left field, doubtlessly effected him. Having everyone question why you were picked before 2 other guys can't help but weigh on you. I put less on the coach they are going to because again, Nagy. Everyone thought that he'd be Andy Reid 2.0 and would be an innovator. After he got fired and after watching the on field product, we now know he is a rank incompetent and frankly a total asshole. Unless it's a really established guy like Andy Reid or if the OC is really established with a long track record, its hard to know. It also really can't be a factor in predicting pre-draft if a guy is going to be good.
@nelsonw2096
@nelsonw2096 2 года назад
As an Oregon alumni and football fan I agreed with your assessment and was happy that we were both wrong. I was at that ASU game that you and a couple of others broke down and pointed to in your evaluation. In retrospect there were a couple of other games where we should have noticed that the play calling indicated that there was little confidence in JH. He has since proven all of those doubts to be wrong. In the event that you are watching a Miami QB in the future you should keep my last two sentences in mind.
@theninjaofmusic
@theninjaofmusic 2 года назад
Darnold is still one of my favorite prospects ever. It's so sad he ended up in the worst situation any young qb has ever been in. Hes never played with a pro bowler.
@blurzzmelo9547
@blurzzmelo9547 2 года назад
He sucks
@colten53
@colten53 2 года назад
@@blurzzmelo9547 At this point, it’s a fact. He was a turnover machine in college, and that has remained true with the Jets and Panthers
@austin.abercrombie
@austin.abercrombie Год назад
to be fair, tua and hurts are doing amazing this year. as an eagles fan, i’d still say herbert is better as of right now though
@Icege
@Icege 2 года назад
BOI I HAVE BEEN WAITING FOR YOU TO ADDRESS THE CHRISTIAN HACKENBERG LOVE 😂😂😂😂 Much love for the introspective! And hey... safety is my favourite position but I am ATROCIOUS at evaluating college prospects for it so you're already ahead of the game! OL, DL, LB, CB, WR? I GOT YOU! QB, S, TE, and RB? Do the opposite of everything that I say. T_T
@ThePizzaDevourer
@ThePizzaDevourer 2 года назад
Great choice of game to put on in the background to illustrate your point!
@atlasking6110
@atlasking6110 7 месяцев назад
You have to wonder how guys like Josh Rosen would have fared had they stepped into optimal situations like Mahomes, who was blessed with the best WR in the NFL, the best TE in the NFL and an offense in which Alex Smith had been very successful the prior two years.
@Corvilux52
@Corvilux52 2 года назад
Two big things: 1: What weapons did they have in college and what was the quality of defenses they were going up against 2: What weapons do they have in the NFL? Do they have a good offensive line? What conference are they going to? A QB failing I feel is only ever partially on the QB unless it’s a deal like Jamarcus Russell who didn’t even take the time to study to improve his craft. A good offensive line and good receiver weapons can make an average QB look a lot better than they are. It can go the other way, a top QB will look like trash if they don’t have talent and key pieces around them. Joe Burrow for example is already playing well, now imagine how good he’d be if he had an O-Line worth a damn. Lamar Jackson has an MVP, but he looked lost last year with so many vital parts of the offense out with injury. I don’t usually put a QB’s failure solely on the QB. Yeah they’re the team leader, they get all the attention and it’s easy to blame them when things done work out, but there’s 10 other guys on that side of the ball that can help them. It’s a team game, failure is never one person’s fault. You succeed and fail as a team.
@badlandskid
@badlandskid 2 года назад
Evaluate the O line they’re gonna play behind. Also who will they be theY throwing to? Moss can make your QB look amazing, Agular can make him look like a dumbass. 🤷🏽‍♂️
@DisappearingNightly
@DisappearingNightly 7 месяцев назад
​I've always maintained that every draft pick, QB or otherwise, comes with the built-in qualifier regarding the organization, coaching staff and system or scheme they end up in. Seems like the faulty assumption may be that there is an actual objective criteria, a set of standard boxes to be checked, a sort of "recipe" for success when what we actually see is that there are a matrix of traits, some physical, some mental, that combine to determine success at the QB position. Once you acknowledge that there are a lot of different variables that lead to an equally wide array of possible outcomes, a lot of the pitfalls in the evaluation process would go away. For example every now and then we see guys like Brock Purdy, whose measurable physical tools while above average in many respects are perhaps not elite, and yet whose intangibles such as being cool in big situations, along with the ability read, recognize, process and execute is advanced to such a high degree that it effectively erases whatever physical limitations they might have. In the same way that some guys are "freaks" in terms of physical tools, there are others who could be just as easily be given the same label but for their intangibles instead. I suspect if we merely admit that Josh Allen and Brock Purdy are both unicorns, but for very different reasons it would be a big step toward understanding how to better evaluate the position.
@mr.xplosive3801
@mr.xplosive3801 2 года назад
Dude, love your channel. Lot of football wisdom. How about growth mindset for QB’s?
@bullpup33
@bullpup33 2 года назад
Systems and teams/coaches have allot to do with it. One part we as fans do not have access to is thw mental attitudes. That is extremely important.
@t4d0W
@t4d0W 2 года назад
Point 2 and 3 are hand in hand and are more important than ever. The point about the college-pro offense being pretty much the same now is the key to all that. I think it has also become key to franchises who know this and have optimized the scouting/coaching on the offensive side of the ball to help identify their QB and get the most out of them at the pro level before their second contract. It also shows that unless constant bottom feeder franchises like the Jets, Panthers, Jaguars, Lions, Dolphins and such improve their execs/staff to create more long term stability, they will stay being talent feeder systems for better competitive teams with the better infrastructure.
@Robbins2324
@Robbins2324 2 года назад
The team part is weird because you can’t evaluate what team they go to when drafting.
@fanboy50
@fanboy50 2 года назад
One of the things I wonder about drafting QBs is that, important as destination is, whether most organizations have the capacity to recognize whether or not they're a good fit for a player. Sometimes you get cases where an organization really commits to remaking itself because they believe in a prospect (see: Baltimore, Kansas City), but I wonder how common that is; the ghastly success rate for early-round QBs would suggest that a lot of teams are actually really bad at gauging player fit to system. I know this video is about QBs, but it would be interesting to see you dive into this topic when it comes to drafting in general, because it kind of seems that the teams that reliably perform best in the draft are the ones that know their needs and their fits best and don't let themselves be awed by talents that just don't fit them well and aren't load-bearing enough to be worth reworking themselves around.
@maaliemaal1373
@maaliemaal1373 7 месяцев назад
It’s a TEAM sport and most organizations fall for the lie that top ten QBs don’t need help to be successful! If you don’t have a good Oline “oh a top ten QB makes the line better” If you don’t have any WRs “oh a top ten QB makes the WRs better” We have to stop with this terrible narrative because it doesn’t provide CONTEXT!!! Can a top tier QB survive in certain unfortunate situations….yes, but it doesn’t lead to success. EVERY QB NEEDS HELP!!!! Let’s stop acting like the Greats Don’t 🙏
@robdowns9339
@robdowns9339 2 года назад
Great Video, love the humility. I love how you communicate your thinking, so you always have credibility! 2017 draft (Bear's fan) watched excessive film on that class, I landed on Trubisky, and we got my guy (Not a fan of trade up). I couldn't dismiss Watson or Maholmes, but I could dismiss Kizer as a one guy lock on, and never move off his guy. I guess my youtube scouting personal keys is arm talent, short throw accuracy, escapability, and seeing players move through reads. 2021 - Fields his A+ in arm talent, accuracy, escapability (kinda of, he is fast, but not slippery), but reads.... he looks for big plays and takes too many sacks because he doesn't get rid of the ball.
@dalelee7441
@dalelee7441 2 года назад
There was an article written long ago by Malcolm Gladwell in The New Yorker where he argued that nobody really understands the criteria for predicting NFL QB success (he claimed predicting who would become an elite school teacher was similarly unpredictable). A big difference between then and now would be the consistency that's developed between the pro and college game which you address here. But I think there could be a lot of truth in the idea that even our best predictive models are close to worthless. Still appreciate the humility and self-reflection that you bring to the table as it's the only way the model will ever improve.
@ciarandudley3455
@ciarandudley3455 2 года назад
Your transparency and self reflection lead to an amazing video that welcomes people to this wonderful game rather than making them feel stupid or like they can’t have an opinion because they were wrong once. Awesome video awesome creator.
@Patookacrep763
@Patookacrep763 2 года назад
Herbert really did that 🤣🤣⚡️⚡️
@redwolfacutinaantam7725
@redwolfacutinaantam7725 2 года назад
Most 1st round QB's fail for one simple reason. They're put under pressure they're not ready for and rushed to be the franchise saviors. I would think over 90% that are drafted in the first round could use anywhere from 1-3 years of mentoring and learning the pro game while becoming acclimated to the speed of the game. But the media and fans alike all think they know better and want to label players busts if they don't perform close to or at pro bowl level their rookie years when drafted in round 1.
@frankschaefer8890
@frankschaefer8890 Год назад
2016: Connor Cook, Brandon Allen were the 2 QBs I liked more than they succeeded... 2017: I liked Chad Kelly, called Trubisky as a bust, missed on Mahomes but hit on Watson 2018: Hit on Baker, Thought Darnold would be the best QB from this class but have somewhat of a tad of a turnover problem, Hit on Rosen, Missed on Allen thought he'd have bad comp pct's and big turnover problems and have some injury issues due to getting hit holding the ball too long with a bad line, Hit on Lamar thought he'd be a big success, I also liked Woodside and Mason Rudolph who never turned out 2019: I was about right on Kyler, I was right on DJ saying he'd be good in a good system that utilizes his mobility and talent, I was right about Drew Lock, Missed on Will Grier, Jarrett Stidham, and I really really liked Trace McSorley as a deep ball, mobility in the pocket QB 2020: I said Herbert would be the best QB in the class, then had Burrow close behind. I had Hurts as a clear third. I called Tua, a bust to game manager at best and have kind of missed on him. I was pretty right on that class other than Tommy Stevens... 2021: It's too early imo to judge but I said Justin Fields would be the best qb, then T Law, Mac Jones, with Trey Lance and Zach Wilsom looking like busts. I also didn't like Ian Book, but liked Davis Mills, Ehlinger, and Mond. I was fairweather or Trask 2022: Willis would be great with some maturing and good coaching. I liked Pickett, thought Ridder was pro ready but would fade out early, I said Howell would be a bust, and only had a tad of liking for Corral before the injury but didn't think his return would go well.
@jeffreytam7684
@jeffreytam7684 Год назад
Excellent deconstruction of both an extremely interesting topic, while also being humble and pointing out how the league and your beliefs have changed
@AtlasAdvice254
@AtlasAdvice254 7 месяцев назад
I think the biggest issue for these young QBs is they’re not given time to grow and progress anymore. If you’re drafted in the first round you’re just expected to come out and be great from the jump. That’s not realistic especially with the difference between college and the NFL. Players need a good environment to make mistakes and grow. Not play Hokey Pokey with starting or being benched everytime they mess up or aren’t amazing. A QB needs at least 2-3 seasons to be able to gauge just how good a player they have the chance to be. Additionally, bringing them to a defense focused team, with a defensive head coach with minimal offensive tools to help offset their mistakes only makes their growing pains look THAT much worse
@Trizzer89
@Trizzer89 7 месяцев назад
Its not an evaluation issue, it is a training issue. When you get to sit behind a starter like Rodgers did with Favre and Love did with Rodgers, odds of success go up dramatically
@ChumblesMumbles
@ChumblesMumbles 2 года назад
Send Mahomes to Cleveland in the 2017 draft and god only knows what much damage that would have caused to his career. Best case scenario is he turns into Matt Stafford, but he could also just get broken and disheartened and blamed for the inevitable losses at that factory of sadness in Cleveland. Perfect setup in KC - sat for a year behind Smith getting the coaching staff's full attention and no pressure. Good organization, good talent on the team, comes out in 2018 and burns the world down.
@aVerveQuest
@aVerveQuest 6 месяцев назад
So much goes into it, much of it out of the QBs control, especially young guys. Look how the Colts ruined Luck, the Dolphins mismanaging Tannehill, the Patriots wrecking Mac Jones. You can't analyze QBs without getting to know them personally, and neither analysts nor teams can do that. The personality of the QB and the organizational situation amounts to about 80% of their success, the other 20% is talent. I liked Hackenberg too, but to the Jets? No way.
@SomeOfTheJuice
@SomeOfTheJuice 8 месяцев назад
Maybe it's just because I don't come from a sports background, but I'm glad you brought up what is something I've never understood in drafting: that destination is everything. Not every QB is going to excel with every team. It's something that has baffled me when teams of very differing styles and differing coaching philosophies are vying for the same QB. Situation matters, and some QBs that look like busts right now honestly probably wouldn't be if they were drafted by the right team for their style, and yet that aspect just got continuously overlooked the entire way through.
@prestonhunter45
@prestonhunter45 7 месяцев назад
I’m just glad I’ll always be able to brag about how I knew CJ would be better than Bryce. I hope Bryce succeeds but it’s seeming like a Baker situation, crappy management and not great teammates.
@tylersimmons6524
@tylersimmons6524 2 года назад
For QBs, they need at least a functional level of tools. If they tick those boxes, I really believe the "intangibles" are the most important. Football IQ/processing, coachability and work ethic are more important than anything (along with who drafts and develops them). Crazy arm talent over good arm talent is just a cherry on top. Because what makes Mahomes/Allen/Herbert/Burrow (and Brady/Brees/Manning before) the fire breathing dragons they are is their processing, crazy work ethic, and insane drive to succeed over everything else.
@jefft5824
@jefft5824 2 года назад
9:00-9:30- My besftriend called Mahomes I had never seen em play but had the same hesitation given the QB's Tech always pumped out. Luckily he turned out to be an MVP instead of another Graham Harrell. If you were on West Coast time, you wouldn't have slept on Allen. That man was doing some wild stuff in awful weather, Buffalo was the perfect spot for him
@jarrettmoore211
@jarrettmoore211 2 года назад
I think people have a misconception on why RG3 wasnt ever as good as he was his rookie year. While yes, he was hurt and he was really never healthy, washington also changed the concept from more of a one read offense that used RG3s skills, into a more pure pocket passing offense, which RG3 struggled in
@axe2grind244
@axe2grind244 2 года назад
People give scouts far too much credit for coming to conclusions any random person with working eyes could have come to. 30% isn’t necessarily accurate considering a large number of that 30% had no business being 1st round picks to begin with. I watched the 2018 draft at a bar in Buffalo and sat next to this Browns fan and he wanted Allen so bad and when I asked him why he said Allen was from another planet and Mayfield was a 2nd or 3rd round talent at best. Makes you wonder how this random stooge knew this yet the professional scouting department in Cleveland didnt.
@harrymills2770
@harrymills2770 7 месяцев назад
Dak also landed on a very talented roster. That was the team build they never quite put together for Romo, before Romo basically broke down, physically.
@Boog1137
@Boog1137 2 года назад
A system that's so sensitive to intial conditions that over time the evolution of that system resembles randomness, is a *chaotic* system. It's not that player evaluations aren't theoretically deterministic (i.e. they're not random); if we could know every detail about a player athletically, psychologically, etc etc, it follows that we would be able to perfectly predict the player they would become; but in practice there are so many different factors that could drastically alter the trajectory of a players development that it feels random.
@Arik_Lynn
@Arik_Lynn 2 года назад
Instant Brett Kollmann classic. One of my favorite videos in months. Much love. Wow.
@leahsmilezzzzzzz
@leahsmilezzzzzzz 2 года назад
14:45 "and that brings us to the ultimate Kollmann-ation of everything..."
@robrich7846
@robrich7846 2 года назад
Honestly, I think Zac Schmoller hit upon what might be the key thing about Herbert, being a college student and having a high GPA in a demanding major kinda eats up a lot of your time. It's not particularly shocking that when a guy goes from that to devoting himself to football full time that the rate of improvement would quicken. I think the world took the wrong lesson away from the Jamarcus Russell fiasco (and to be fair, it wasn't just Russell). Because it seemed like for a long time, the conventional wisdom was that the worst thing you could do in the draft was letting yourself get enticed by "upside" by a guy's "ceiling," by "raw talent." Like, ya don't need a guy who can huck it 80 yards, ya don't need a guy with a fast 40 time! Ya need a guy with enough strength to make all the NFL throws and can make them with consistent accuracy. Get the guy with clean mechanics who you know can read a defense. By that logic, drafting Mahomes, Allen, Herbert high would be a huge mistake. I think some teams overlooked the fact that some of those raw guys are very coachable!
@Speedster___
@Speedster___ 2 года назад
What major was Herbert?
Далее
Are analytics ruining football?
18:53
Просмотров 180 тыс.
This is the worst offense in the NFL.
18:22
Просмотров 338 тыс.
Brilliant Budget-Friendly Tips for Car Painting!
00:28
Quarterback panic rankings.
17:34
Просмотров 91 тыс.
You Will Never Look at the NFL Draft the Same
15:56
Просмотров 956 тыс.
Who actually invented the spread offense?
26:45
Просмотров 210 тыс.
The Vikings Defense is Hilariously Bad.
19:19
Просмотров 271 тыс.
What Happened to EVERY #1 Overall Pick Since 2000?
17:48
The complete and utter collapse of Ubisoft
31:41
Просмотров 1,3 млн
The Eagles run a high school offense.
18:21
Просмотров 540 тыс.
The Running Back Problem.
17:00
Просмотров 408 тыс.
Justin Fields is already fixing the Bears' problems
22:29
We Measured "Luck" in the NFL. It’s a BIG deal.
16:48
Brilliant Budget-Friendly Tips for Car Painting!
00:28