Will the Austin housing bubble burst? | KVUE

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Unaffordability is a major problem in the Austin area. But will home prices ever drop back down to an affordable price?
STORY: www.kvue.com/article/money/ec...
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KVUE is Austin's ABC affiliate station and has been delivering local news for Central Texans since 1971. Today it is owned by TEGNA, Inc., which reaches approximately one-third of all television households in America. www.kvue.com

Опубликовано:

29 май 2022

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Комментарии : 180

@alejandrohernandez7340 2 года назад

I hope Austin area slows down on its growth, as a Texan I’m hugely afraid of Texas being in the same situation as California and NewYork and even now Florida.

@GrindingMyGear 2 года назад

That.s exactly what i am worried about.

@Calvinmob6886 2 года назад

I work in insurance and I tell people rates have increased because the cost of doing business in Texas has increased. I get the "what does that have to do with me" well you live in Texas duh, you effected regardless if you agree or not.

@JBoy340a 2 года назад

Any place where housing demand is greater than supply has seen large increases in prices. As long as companies keep moving to Texas in general, and Austin specifically this will continue.

@Rj-nh1df 2 года назад

Florida won't drop 40%...maybe 20%

@Jabodie 2 года назад

Unfortunately, this is happening before our very eyes. And NIMBY resistance to developing infrastructure seems to have failed preventing new people from migrating here while disproportionately harming the poor. Most of the young professionals in the city seem to be tech transplants these days.

@TheAnonymous916 2 года назад

This news segment just lost all its credibility by interviewing Reventure. 🤦🏻‍♂️

@bigoddo 2 года назад

Exactly! He is a doomer.

@s0ld4u 2 года назад

Thank you. There's no upside for Nick, because he sells panic.

@JamesCook76131 2 года назад

The fact he mentioned EA, lost all credibility lol. EA has issues outside of tech stocks, like Elden Ring preforming so well compared to other games EA is producing.

@JJJ_JJ1 2 года назад

Lol so glad people know about this guy. He’s a charlatan. And this whole segment suggests “the crash” will only apply to those who bought at absolute peak levels within the last 24 months (1/3 being investors). Okay…? What percentage of the population does that actually represent? He’s suuuch a charlatan and deceptively selective with the metrics he uses.

@rahulnair6797 2 года назад

Prices crash when demand dries up. The lumping of local demand to the demand from the migration to Texas is the issue with this analysis. The demand is largely external people migrating to austin. The lumping of local demand to overall demand won't give you the true picture. Local demand did not cause the 70% upward price spike. So when will prices crash? When external demand cools off. When will that happen? 1) When businesses stop relocating/expanding here 2) when Austin's price math begins to match that of cities from where these buyers are moving here (even with 3% property tax a 500k house here will cost 1.5 mil in California). We know Austin isn't going to become business unfriendly anytime soon and with a long runway for prices to match that of California or east coast , a 30-40% crash feels like some ways off.

@joncruz92 2 года назад

You forgot one thing FEAR people will see all of this news when prices starting to go down in the us and it’s all over the headlines then you’ll get your decline

@moisesceja5294 2 года назад

They want to scare people, they want us to own NOTHING and be happy. Think about it that RU-vidr in that apartment probably owns a couple of properties that he rents out

@jimmash9353 2 года назад

@@joncruz92 yea, hopefully price stamped, please let it happen. These prices are insane.

@Calvinmob6886 2 года назад

I was going to leave Sacramento in "California" last year but it's cheaper to live in my California city that's 1 hour from the ocean than to live in Austin Texas. I love Texas but California besides the politics and tax is amazing.

@Maelu-op9gf 2 года назад

It’s crazy that CA is cheaper

@JBoy340a 2 года назад

If you own a home the taxes are much better in California since they are largely fixed close to what you pay the first year, not what home sell for in your neighborhood. Right now, people in the Austin area are seeing 20-50% increases in their property tax bill.

@steveaustin8870 2 года назад

@@JBoy340a it's very moronic considering investment properties don't even have any tax exemptions.

@vesperfog 2 года назад

Only a few hours from the ocean here as well...

@MikeinAustin 2 года назад

There are a lot of California homes that are still under $600K inland. But honestly, Sacramento to Point Reyes (the Ocean, and not East Bay) is 2+ hours. Moving to Austin to be cheaper than rural California isn't a great idea. But at least the 100+ degree summers in Sacramento are a dryer heat.

@matthtang 2 года назад

It’s about supply and demand. Who’s selling when they’ve locked in a 3% year mortgage? In the 70s you had rising interest rates, high inflation and rising home prices. After the bust of 2007-2008 you had lowering interest rates and lowering home prices. Realtors are like investment bankers….they care about the amount of transactions not prices.

@kaylarye6139 2 года назад

A lot of people moving aren’t the ones that bought into the market at 3%. My aunts tax bill is expected to explode. Even with a house that’s nearly paid off she is worried. The taxes are what’s going to cause a lot of people to move out. These houses won’t be as attractive bc new buyers won’t get that amazing interest rate.

@matthtang 2 года назад

@@kaylarye6139 when you sell your primary residence you have to find another place to live.

@bluebottlecoffee654 2 года назад

YES! This is the worst time to buy a home! Housing bubble is at the highest peak with the interest rate going higher! Don't be fooled by the people saying that everything will be ok..Those are either the home sellers or the real estate agents who only cares about making MONEY!

@TheAnonymous916 2 года назад

Now yes, with the high mortgage interest rates. But if you bought the last two years at record low rates, you’ve hit the jackpot.

@sappersteel532 2 года назад

Real estate agents are some of the worst snakes in the grass right now.

@Maelu-op9gf 2 года назад

@@TheAnonymous916 not if the bubble pops. Nothing worse than being upside down regardless of a low rate

@didiermontagnier6114 2 года назад

@@sappersteel532 they have always been. They get 6% for just putting a sign on your yard 😡

@DailyRants89 2 года назад

@@Maelu-op9gf really depends on what part of the country you're in. Some parts are much more stable and won't see a huge decrease if any at all. The "hot" markets (Austin, Tampa, Phoenix, etc) are the ones most likely to see a crash. Houses aren't meant to appreciate that much that fast.

@pirateonvacation425 2 года назад

That consultant is wrong in his data and assumptions about so many things. Associating tech stocks taking a hit with tech jobs is not a correct correlation. Looking at the wages in Austin not changing does not take into account the fact that so many people moved to Austin from California and New York and are still remote working. Those people are making the same wages as they did in NYC, San Fran, and LA. His underlying assumptions are wrong, so he is wrong. I’m not saying there isn’t a slight bubble in the pricing in Austin, but there’s no chance we’re seeing a 30 to 40% decline in the next three years.

@charityscreams5366 2 года назад

This guy has been calling for a crash for literally 2 years. The entire time prices have been climbing he's been saying crash. Little bummed that the local news is using a podcaster instead of a real local opinion.

@AgsBud 2 года назад

@@charityscreams5366 5 years later it finally crashes. "SEE I TOLD YOU GUYS!!!"

@ezyryder11 2 года назад

When tech stocks crash, they can’t raise as much money by selling stock to investors. So they have to cut costs, otherwise they’ll run out of money and won’t be able to make payroll. Mostly an issue for startups that sell stock to VCs to pay their employees. But does affect some public companies as well.

@oldcat87 2 года назад

Never say never, here we go.

@collinvalerie6443 2 года назад

@@charityscreams5366 I agree. If you’re going to call yourself news, you need multiple opinions to start and if I wanted to just hear from chicken little, I’d listen to his podcast.

@jeremiahescobedo 2 года назад

This guy is always screaming burst. Watch his channel he is very dramatic.

@tjmondejar5224 2 года назад

I cant beleive KVUE gave this dude a platform to preach his doom and gloom

@acbc3543 2 года назад

Some realtor sent a letter to my boyfriend asking him if he would like to sell his home !!! Where would we live with $750k in Austin ? Nowhere ! Get real, realtors! You already got your money elsewhere but not here

@dean._.0.0 2 года назад

Sorry to say but when Tech Companies move in, property prices never drop. forever bubble.

@Cocollyt 2 года назад

Yeah that’s what I’m thinking. It’s silly to compare austin to the US market because of the tech migration. Too bad wages haven’t risen to follow suit.

@christopherbaker3817 2 года назад

Even if it drops by half I’d still be overpriced

@Hawtload 2 года назад

there's not enough inventory and there won't be for a long time

@Matthew-rp3jf 2 года назад

Nope

@TheRealFinanceGuy 2 года назад

Exactly, anyone who understands knows.

@trustmemysonisadoctor8479 2 года назад

I lived through the "bubble bursting" in the late 1980's when home prices collapsed. I was working in the loan department of a bank and the losses were close to 50% as per appraisals. A loan officer I worked with had purchased a new home and in 1 year the appraised value of his home was 50% less than his mortgage, he was not the only one this happened to.

@MikeinAustin 2 года назад

Water availability is the underlying issue that nobody wants to talk about. California still has tons of land to build on with apartments, but they just can't get the water into those communities so building new permits is rare. Thus, pricing increases. But Lake Travis is at 653 ft. When it's below 620 ft, Lake Travis looks like a stream. Anyone here in 2015 knows that. We really aren't set up here for 2-3 year droughts. But if that happens, I suspect there will be no building permits issues. Although the head of the LCRA (Tim Timmerman) is a real estate developer so who knows. And honestly, buying a home in an area that has a potential of not having water at your curb in a year, curtails home purchases and people leave. That will be the correction. But so far (last 3-4 years) as long as someone can leave an even higher COL (Bay Area, Seattle, Boston, DC, etc) to come to Austin, take their $800K downpayment, and finance the remaining $500K at 4% interest, with the belief that their $1.3M house is gonna be worth a $2M house, they will continue to get 30 year loans deep into their late 50s, speculating on Austin's market. But guaranteed as retires face $25-$50K per year property tax bills, the older demographics of the area will start leaving. Austin is far too expensive to live on a fixed income for the value of being "in a hot market"

@rockys7726 2 года назад

Looks like I'm going to wait before I start building in ATX.

@youngz13o 2 года назад

I’ve been living in NY forever and the price of homes have always outpaced income forever… yet… I don’t see prices shooting down here 30-40%. This could very well be the new norm

@grod805 2 года назад

That's because prices in NY didn't increase that much during the pandemic like they did in other places.

@sssyria 2 года назад

new york is a rental market

@didiermontagnier6114 2 года назад

Can’t wait for the bubble to burst. Hopefully our sky high property taxes will also be bursted with that bubble.

@Moondoggy1941 2 года назад

In Ca. property tax can only go up 3% a year, but if there is a crash they can go down the next year to the rate. So if your house goes down 50% your property tax goes down 50%.

@didiermontagnier6114 2 года назад

@@Moondoggy1941 In Texas, if you have a homestead exemption, they cap the rate at 10%. Within less than 10 years your tax will double. I know people from CA moving here and bought a multimillion dollars mansion then get a sticker shock when they see their tax bill.

@Moondoggy1941 2 года назад

@@didiermontagnier6114 I joke with my brother who lives in Dallas, saying I want to move to a slightly downward trending neighborhood. So I can save on taxes.

@didiermontagnier6114 2 года назад

@@Moondoggy1941 We own a house in Newport Beach and pay less property tax on it than we do on our house here in Austin.

@richiemochi 2 года назад

What goes up must come down. Prices should go down. No more excuses for developers to talk about lumber prices and tagging an extra $18K. Lumber prices has been down since Feb 2022. Even when oil prices were high the cost of new homes in Austin, TX were around $250K. Corporate realtors and developers are delusional. You can find Prices of homes in Philadelphia, PA for 200's. People who are paying over an additional $100K for subpar built homes are getting ripped off. Hourly Wages in Austin,TX is only $12 to $15. Who can afford to rent and purchase if they are single?

@SUPADUDE4070 2 года назад

Apparently a lot of people if they’re still buying the homes at those prices. You can’t ever say a price is too high if someone is willing to pay it.

@haimschlesinger4920 2 года назад

@Housing Analyst will it cool off? most definitely yes, as interest rates rise, the demand over the next couple of years will balance out with the supply. but will the price drop? I highly doubt it! what will probably happened, the price won't increase like it did the last couple of years. Nowadays, no one is getting approved for a loan on a home if they can't make the payments. loan originators are very strict with who they allow to lend money to. The tech industry is booming in Austin, and it doesn't look like they're leaving any time soon. And these companies are paying high salaries for their employees. hence, they will be able to make the payments, and buy a house. On the other hand, who gets affected most by this, are low income households, as they are forced to go elsewhere, because they can't afford paying for their house due to higher taxes and insurance, or higher rents.

@clarkblount7788 2 года назад

Lumber prices are still outrageous. $46 sheet of plywood is crazy.

@clarkblount7788 2 года назад

@Housing Analyst Great idea. It still doesn't effect price though. Quantity is allways discounted. If I quote lumber futures are you going to suggest I buy a mill?

@Birthdaynightswishes 2 года назад

Lol! He is the biggest yeller of youtube. Austin is the highest growing city and it would be very less impacted by crash. From a well known tech company, and headcount is only increasing. Also with tesla also coming, its going to go even high.

@JBoy340a 2 года назад

Yep. With the big Apple, Google, and other campuses opening near Round Rock, homes there are not going down in value.

@dhowto3005 2 года назад

I do not think prices will drop and especially not by the percentage quoted in this report.

@Matthew-rp3jf 2 года назад

You must own property. I disagree.

@ernestchoi8334 2 года назад

@@Matthew-rp3jf Most of the Asians own property , nothing new. Of course, as property investors they want the value to go up year after year , but in reality it is impossible. Just look at the recent stock market, what happens? Asians are taught to invest in property is guaranteed but this is not true. I just wish there was another crash just like 2008 and let all these greedy investors learn the lesson.

@costak7679 2 года назад

Tampa FL is also a hotspot. Lots of hard money lending (HML) activity happening and HML investors don't care about price, they care about the bottom line when they flip, sell, or rent out the house. And first generation homebuyers are experiencing a drought of massive proportions and ready to drink away the tears of all those HML investors who will get scorched by the hot housing market that not two weeks ago went into a cooling saucer.

@ehren5347 2 года назад

LOL Reventure has been saying the crash is going to happen since 2020

@diegolara4202 2 года назад

Lol can't believe they chose him to interview. Failed predictions one after another.

@joncruz92 2 года назад

More people are saying it will happen this year tho

@more_life 2 года назад

It would have happened but who could have predicted foreclosure moratoriums and Fed stimmy to oblivion.

@diegolara4202 2 года назад

@@more_life that proved that no one can predict anything. That all this "buckle up folks the market is crashing" is non sense. Or telling people to wait to buy at the end of the year or wait till 2023 is wrong because they don't know what will happen. Buy when you can not when some bozo on RU-vid tells you too. He told people to not buy and wait till this year. Now rated are double and home prices are up 25 percent. Having bought last year you would have saved 25 percent and paid half the interest rate. Now the same bozos are saying wait another year because this time the crash will happen. Well how do they know there won't be another event that will affect home priced further?

@diegolara4202 2 года назад

@@more_life and by the way these bozos predicted a crash after the rent moratoriums and after the stimulus packages. So don't try to find excused for their failed predictions. They actually used the moratorium as evidence that the housing market would crash and be flooded with new homes and that bad not been the case either. Failed after failed predictions.

@luckysarai2122 2 года назад

This is wrong in so many levels. Prices will not drop. They will level off at a new norm. This is not like 2008. Interest rates went up, home prices stayed steady or went up. What is happening now is your not getting the 50+ offers going above asking price. This is where prices will level off. Not drop. New home builders will just slow down or stop production to keep prices at current levels.

@kevm3 2 года назад

How will prices not drop when the price of homes are vastly outpacing wages, ultra high interest rates, inflation going through the roof... only if you believe that corporations are going to keep buying these houses

@containedhurricane 2 года назад

Definitely, but maybe thirty years later when the big tech companies are crumbling or moving to other state

@scottlecompte2400 2 года назад

Well I lived in Austin back in 95'- 2005' has it not busted yet they were saying it back then.

@jaygotitdahardway9941 2 года назад

Reventure made the News…💯🔥🚀

@s0ld4u 2 года назад

He's a joke. Local incomes don't correlate to housing costs when outside money is paying mostly cash. He also continually references "historical data" but 2008 has come and gone, and it's a whole new post-pandemic housing market.

@touyang9479 2 года назад

lol... That dude does nothing but talk about doomsday. I would not take what he says with any seriousness.

@deusiscariot3498 2 года назад

Reventure Consulting is a RU-vid grift channel that's been predicting an apocalyptic real estate meltdown across the entire United States for years. It's hilarious that you guys fell for this.

@miraclemile837 2 года назад

Yet housing prices have started to decline within less than a months time, I wouldnt count the chickens before they hatch.

@Alex-hx8wz 2 года назад

It's a bubble for sure. Question is when and how it pops

@Gngrcpl 2 года назад

I was just thinking that! And he calls himself a “CEO” lol.

@Calvinmob6886 2 года назад

You sound like a used car salesman I mean Realtor telling us it's never been a better time to buy.

@sappersteel532 2 года назад

Of course Realtor is going to tell you now is the best time to buy.

@theforestisdark9676 2 года назад

It's already crashing.

@ChrisZ70 2 года назад

Is it? What makes you think that?

@truongle2381 2 года назад

it's not. but I can see a difference in the inventory. just 2 - 3 months ago, most home builder didn't list any house on the market and asked buyer to bid, but they're listing all their inventory home to the market as soon as they can now and no bid, and they're offering 10k toward closing cost. The price is still high through. However, I have to agree with this guy, we have to be cautious due to interest rate is raised. It's just 6 months ago and not many ppl thought Grow Stock & Indexes would be crashed that much. IMO, 30 percents correction is a bit much, I'm guessing 20% is more realistic.

@sappersteel532 2 года назад

🙏🤞🙏🤞🙏🤞🙏🤞🙏

@Maelu-op9gf 2 года назад

Prices dropping where I am

@truongle2381 2 года назад

@Housing Analyst No I'm not sure. If I'm sure I'd never use IMO. The last 2 years are really weird, austin housing price jump over 100%. You may have better experience and more precise prediction as you're housing analyst.

@Michelle-po9xy 2 года назад

Not to mention all the new houses are rushed and cheaply made

@p9r4ex8dyk 2 года назад

Hello REVENTURE CONSULTING!!

@RossSpeirs 2 года назад

Certainly don’t wish a housing bubble on anyone. Not sure how many people from Austin Tx are going to know my town but if you’re curious check out the home prices where I live in Victoria BC Canada just north of Seattle

@jaycena5696 2 года назад

my uncle builds apartments in austin.he always has work.

@gomerhanger2285 Год назад

sure why not ? It's happened before.

@politicrackedpodcast9868 2 года назад

Dude no way you guys are using him as a source. LOL

@moisesceja5294 2 года назад

Rent, lol they want you to own nothing and be happy.

@redangel169 2 года назад

I hope so. It's ridiculous

@dan.hunter 2 года назад

Reventure Consulting has been calling for a crash for years. If you listened to him a few years ago, you would have missed out on lots of appreciation. Please don't listen to this guy.

@lightningmcqueen9310 2 года назад

I’m in Cali just waiting Austin I need another property

@irenegsrza8208 2 года назад

Ridiculous you have to share a mortgage otherwise you can't buy a home. Alone I could never buy a home

@rickcasterline756 2 года назад

LOL! This guy is insane.

@waterym1449 2 года назад

That a boy NICK!

@richardcogbill6791 2 года назад

It's all related to demand.

@bigstickful 2 года назад

gonna be quicker than that scooter.

@janetpeek8192 Год назад

Ad prices drop on homes, will quality drop as well?

@gtrjoe68 2 года назад

Never!!!!

@DennisHicks78749 2 года назад

Of course it will! But the issue is about de-regulation, which sets the stage for endless boom and bust cycle.

@jimmash9353 2 года назад

true that, greed knows no bound, for greater benefits, we need regulations, that's why we not living in anarchy.

@willoweable 2 года назад

We need the houses to drop prices so people can move in. Its impossible to buy a house as it is now and Austin has so many homeless people who need to be able to afford a place to rent. People need to be able to move upwards and keeping the prices high just makes it difficult for the young to make a living

@dbyler7616 2 года назад

this kid has been calling for a crash for years.

@Brotoshi 2 года назад

Well done Nick!!

@dbrew2u 2 года назад

Austin will be fine . Just like in Florida there are more than enough Millionaires to keep propping up the Market .

@michaellawrence1601 2 года назад

It’s not dropping only slowing don’t kid yourself

@rockrasheed7507 2 года назад

BIG TECH COMPIANES START TO LAYOFF?? SHOCKING!!!!!!!!!!!!!

@natashaorr1596 2 года назад

I actually like the fact that many people don’t want to be here anymore from the high price of living. It’s like yes a break.

@andrewdeorian134 2 года назад

This is spot on.

@miltonfriedman3593 2 года назад

Lol you people live in a fantasy, demand is just too high, Austin is going to double im price again in 5 years, everyday more and more businesses are moving here

@adamgreen4280 2 года назад

No way! Not with the price of property taxes.

@miltonfriedman3593 2 года назад

@@adamgreen4280 you need to understand, for people who move here the price of homes in Austin is still very cheap, in the suburbs of NYC a 1.5m home in Austin is a 5 Millon in NY, same in SF, I moved here from long island and I can tell you life is still way way easier here, democrats ruined the Northeast beyond repair

@alostbard 2 года назад

I call it The Joe Rogan Effect; conservatives in Texas are finding out the hard way that conservatives moving from the west coast are not the same.

@lfeb 2 года назад

Probably not

@miketexas4549 2 года назад

My parents built a home near West Gate/William Cannon in 1982 for $95K. I looked up the house on Zillow the other day out of nostalgia - SIX HUNDRED AND NINETY THOUSAND DOLLARS.

@afg45 2 года назад

That's only about 5.1% per year, high but not remotely outrageous. The real issues is most of that appreciation has been in the last 4-5 years probably.

@miketexas4549 2 года назад

@@afg45 No its pretty outrageous. It's a very simple, middle class house that's now forty years old.

@garyglenn1445 2 года назад

An all those remote workers when the SHTF will be out of a job as fast as they moved to Texas because when corporate America needs to cut cost those remote workers will be the first to go!!!! So is Austin going to go belly up ya dam right it will an 30 to 40 % drop he's just being nice!!!!! Reality is gonna be much worse!!!!

@s0ld4u 2 года назад

Won't happen because those are the workers corporate American NEEDS.

@drippingjimmy5492 2 года назад

He's been saying this for like 5 years already

@realnapster1522 Год назад

Why would they cut remote workers if they can finish their jobs?

@realnapster1522 Год назад

Working in office is overrated.

@thomaskim5008 2 года назад

He does not know what he is talking about. His prediction was totally wrong in the past.

@alucardhellsing666 2 года назад

I hope the Market crashes everywhere like back in 2008. We need rent control in this city too.

@robbirch5421 2 года назад

Rent control didn’t help SF. Buy wisely.

@funnyjokesandgaffs 2 года назад

🤞

@reggiegeorges5850 2 года назад

🤲🏽🤝🏼🙏🏻 We're Debt Free 🫂 👴🏾 Through The Prince of Financial Peace ☮️ 🏩. Get rid of Direct TV. a+

@tonyyarbray 2 года назад

hopefully and I hope speculators lose their shirts .....go away!

@botaccount3449 2 года назад

Crash crash crash! Lol.

@soulfly144 2 года назад

The Liberal PLAGUE that arrives from Cali and Zoo York destroys all it encounters. Austin used to be a cool, fun college town, now it’s turning into LA.