WOULD YOU KEEP THIS HAND? MULLIGANS IN cEDH - THE PLAY TO WIN PODCAST 

Cannot stress enough how enjoyable it is when y'all have Tyler on the podcast!

For all of the math people, You can think of the probability of drawing the land in two tries as 100% minus the probability of not drawing a land twice. The first draw the probability of not drawing a land is 64/92 and the second try it is 64/91. If you multiply those 2 numbers together, you get that the probability of not drawing a land in 2 draws is 49%. Thus the probability of drawing at least 1 land is 51%. Please correct me if I am wrong.

1/3 twice computes as 1 - (2/3*2/3) (as 1 minus the accumulated likelyhood of the oppose event happening) which is just about 55%. That excludes any fast mana though. I probably don't keep that hand either. I do generally agree with all mulligan choices on JT. Also I didn't see Madga in the Mardu mulligans so I assume Dylan still doesn't play Magda in JT and I swore to comment on that until Dylan plays Madga in JT.

Always enjoy when Tyler can make the cast 🙏🏼

Dylan: Pronounces fyndhorn elf correctly Also Dylan: Corrects himself to say flinthorn elf 36:50

Gotta say it. I love ya guys. The friendship between the three of you is infectious. Feels like I can actually sit down there and hang out with you all.

The discussion between 7 is perfect. The form thought process that goes on is invaluable.

The way I’ve always looked at cEDH vs EDH: cEDH- mulligans and turn 1 are early game. You essentially need to be done developing your mana and hopefully have your draw engine in play. EDH- mulligan is hoping for 2-3 lands, a piece of ramp and a draw spell. Early game is turns 1-3

34:46 the math comes out to roughly 50/50 that Cam will hit ATLEAST one land in the first 2 draws. The way you figure this out is by figuring out the inverse probability (chances of hitting no lands) then subtracting that from 1. So considering 28/91 is roughly 30% of the deck is lands you would find out what’s the probability of hitting the 70% chance twice. So .7x.7=.49 or 49% which means Cam has roughly a 51% chance to hit land by turn 2 If you’d like to look at it the opposite way you can figure out the chances of all 3 possible successes (draw a land both turn 1&2, draw land turn 1 non land turn 2, draw non land turn 1 land turn 2) which would be .3x.3=.09(9%); .3x.7=.21(21%); .7x.3=.21(21%); add them all up and it’s 51%.

Man, this podcast actually helped clear some of the fog in my brain for mulligan logic. Thanks a bunch guys!

My other favorite channel is cEDH TV and they always show/explain their mulligans. I love this aspect as it teaches me a lot. I would love to see yall explain mulligans in games.

Love this ep guys. One of my new favorite channels! Learned a lot and had fun doing it.

"And that is... what it is" ---- Cam 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂 Omg I love you guys so much, literally cracked TF up at 2am in bed watching this, made my wife mad for waking her up, but it was totally worth it 🤣🤣🤣. This is my favorite RU-vid channel bar none.

Not sure if you guys have done this before/would be interested, but I'd enjoy the heck out of a commentary episode of your own games to see where your thought processes were during each step. I love seeing the opening hand conversations and made me realize I'd enjoy seeing a turn 2/3/4 and how the adaptations are played.

I love Fridays because this is when my cEDH play group gets together and we always talk about the new pod cast. You guys have really changed how I look at the game and how I deck build for cEDH. Yall are the three musketeers of cEDH!!

More of these mulligan videos with tyler, please! Or other guests, discussing other commanders.

This is by far my favourite MTG YT channel!

Although I'm not a fan of the Ent, if you're looking to fill the role of a massive beater that nets card advantage in green, have you thought about Elder Gargoroth? It doesn't land cycle, but it has trample, vigilance, and reach in addition to passively gaining life, drawing a card, or making a 3/3 body whenever it attacks or blocks. Idk if it really works for Kinan, but the card has been quite helpful in my mono green list against Kraum when Blue Farm has to fall back onto their beats plan. Between that, Boseiju, and Endurance, green has some relatively solid responses to some of the best combos in the format.

Im so glad Tyler took stats in school.

You guys should do a series where you help cedh and commander players edit their decks with their budgets and their stock. It's quick paced and you help multiple people with their decks while on the phone. It would be huge and could all be done with moxfield.

for anyone wondering its about 5/9 chance to draw a land at 35:00 mark, which approximates to about 60% but you cant just add the two 30% chances together because then that would be mean by turn 4 your have a 120% chance of getting a land which just isnt true, you would multiply the chances of of drawing/not drawing al and and by eachother twice, twice as two instances of drawing and then add those totals together, which is 1/9 of drawing two lands, 2 times 2/9 chances of drawning one alnd and 4/9 of drawing no land, just fyi :)

Very helpful video thus far. New cedh player here

THALROG for Thalia and The Gitrog Monster so you’re never confused about which card you’re talking about and have a name much easier to say

Lots of experience and knowledge from you guys as always, I have a bad habit of keeping slightly risky hands, like only has a fish turn 1 and rocks to get it, but then my pod decides that's the ONE game in a hundred they'll be responsible lolololl

Yay Tyler is in the podcast 😊

Nice, a video about doing hand stuff

I for some reason thought you guys were going to sit there and shuffle actual decks to do this😂. I forgot moxfield has this feature.

34:11 For what it's worth you would multiply the probabilities together of you NOT drawing ANY land during these two draws. With 92 cards left in the deck, 29 of them being lands you have a ~68.48% chance of not drawing a land. Assuming you don't draw a land, your subsequent draw has ~68.13% chance of not being a land. Multiply these together, and you have ~46.65% of NOT drawing a land, which means ~53.35% of drawing at least one land during your first two draws.

hi i am new to cedh how does the muligan work u get the first for free and u do it in turn order is that right

Also lmao Dylan with the throat goat tech

very important skill to practice! mulligans are the single most important meal of the game

Watching you guys do Tayam mulligans would have been peak comedy, maybe try that next time 😅

8:50 most important part of the video for real.

It really throws me off hearing y’all talk about your lands; I get HEAVILY made fun of for running 30-32 lol Love the discussion as always 😁

As an exact value, I'm fairly sure the probability of drawing at least one land is the sum probabilities of (1st draw is land, 2nd isn't), (1st draw is land, so is second), (1st draw isn't, 2nd is) which is ((28/92)*(64/91))+((28/92)*(27/91))+(64/92*28/91)) which is about 51.8%. Stats is complex and I'm not a statistician so I could be wrong though. This does not account for fast mana either obv. And if you specifically want one land from the two draws, just remove the middle option and it calculates to about 42.8%

Still waiting on that cadaverous bloom list lol but alas, a tasty podcast will do 😂

Cam trying to keep his hyperactive younger brothers in line a bit in this one.

34:00 painful. Odds of getting at least 1 land in 2 draws = 1 - (change of not drawing a land twice) = approximate 1 - (0.66)^2 = approximate 56%

man that rocco deck is so different then mine, i have a turbo i wouldnt keep the first hand cause i cant keep felidar in it

I built dylans Winota list. Lets Do Winota Test Hands!!!

Coulda watched already if you were on the Patreon😉*hint hint*

Why is Gemstone Cavern not good in your starting hand when you’re going last?

i would keep all the hands because all hands are beautiful :^)

You need to be looking at the odds of missing a land in 2 draws thats whats tripping you up. Its like a 63/92% chance to miss a land then a 62/91% to miss it a 2nd time. Averages out to slightly better than coinflip odds to hit a land within two draws

Glad to see that even cEDH players struggle with math.

Do nothing dan Is an amazing turn one play, and should be kept as often as possible.

27:02 turn 1 Jwill into t1 One Ring?

You actually have to take the chances you don’t hit your lands and that leads you with the inverse being the chance you do hit. 64 non-land cards left in deck out of 92 cards total on the first draw then 63 non-lands out of 91. 64/92 *63/91=.4816 1-.4816=.5184 So you actually would have had a ~52% chance that you hit a lane by turn 2.

❤❤❤

Mmmm Tyler on the podcast really makes my neurons activate with *knowledge*

If you have a 50% chance and you try it twice .... It's 100%, right?

28:12 „the eagles look really great here“ … guess what, them being a land would have been a ton better here. And you can’t convince me, that a 3/3 flyer with that etb really is going to win you the game (or stops you from losing the game), when you would draw it late. I’d rather have a bicycle land tbh

16:07 . . . What sounds doth grace mine ears?

I didn't mulligan with Yisan last night and stomped everyone. Now it's Dylan's turn.

Ok, very very surprising take to begin the podcast : do y'all take your hands AFTER finding out turn order ? That's new and a bit broken to me. I've always played it "select your hand, THEN roll for place", and while I understand how you discuss strategy on your premise, I also believe my way of doing it is way more balanced precisely for that.

Messing up the math to drive engagement

"No" comedy genius

30 percent of the time You draw it Every time

Isn't it forty five point five percent when you count 2 cards out of 91 cards

The numbers don’t lie, and they spell disaster for you!

I love when they do math

The probability to draw a land goes like this. Let's assume for the sanity of the commender that 1/3 is the probability to draw a land each time and 2/3 to not draw a land each time So let's calculate the event that you will draw at least one land over two draws. That is 1 minus the probability of drawing zero lands over 2 turns. So let's calculate that. The probability of drawing zero lands over two turns is (2/3)*(2/3) = 4/9. That means that over half of the time, 5/9 you will be drawing a land until turn two. Yeah it is an approximation I didn't want to do it on a calculator because I am on my phone. However if you want the exact match change the 2/3 with the ratio of land and cards in deck in the first 2 turns and repeat my math and you will have it. In conclusion. A flip of an almost fair coin is a good chance in my head and I would have taken in casual table. I don't know.if I would in a tournament which I paid to enter. I would consider my results up to then and if it is public info the results of my opponents as well. It is a close call

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Dylan is totally big head, big mouth kinda guy 💖

Pog

Never peak at the top when you mull, the bias is terrible for your decisions.

You cant just add 30% + 30% = 60% to hit a land. Instead think of the probability you whiff, about 70%, so the probability u whiff twice is 70%*70%=49%, so you have about 51% chance to hit at least one land.

The play to win struggling at math Podcast

Love this video but the math on drawing the lands hurt my soul aha

Infinite food would be nice if you and urza out, you just don't in kinnan xD

Number in turkish is “Sayı” now u know Tyler

Well thats not how the math work, 29/92+63/92*29/91 = 53.3% chance to draw at least 1 land in your next to draw

It’s 30% with each draw fellas 😂😂😂 not 60%. That would mean after the 3rd draw, your chances of hitting a lane are 120%. Which we know is wrong.

"Alright, now that we're all done being assholes, let's move on" To what? What is the next evolution of asshole?

Yall need to learn to just plug this shit into a hypergoemetric calculator

listening to these goobers try and do statistical analysis is giving me life

Many times, I find myself just trying see Dylan’s tattoos and not listening to what he said

Always remember, math is for blockers

Guys, I love your stuff but you could be even better players if you learned just the basics of probability theory. Knowing how to calculate the overall odds of consecutive events is just usefull in... Life. 😅

One, two, three Unos, dos, tres Une, deux, trois Ein, zwei, drei Ich, ni, san