Yikes: The Fed on 1995's Soft Landing vs Today [Hint: It's Bad.]

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Опубликовано:

30 сен 2024

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Комментарии : 163

@alanmulder7799 8 дней назад

Thanks for the update on the Fed soft landing comparison! Great work on seeing the the differences from the mid 95’s to today’s volatility.

@jameschen2872 8 дней назад

Amazon also doing quiet layoffs with their new in office policy starting 2025

@justSTUMBLEDupon 8 дней назад

I’m surprised how many people are picking up on this.

@PTRCKAhrens 8 дней назад

Calls on TLT or TMF

@dreamofstuff9125 8 дней назад

Not sure how they are hiding this stuff, but no one is buying manufactured goods now. Everything is deep discount and sitting on store shelves. manufacturing is in trouble and dealing with mass layoffs.

@mattengels9402 8 дней назад

Most people with money buy big houses and boats. Kevin buys plastic guns and a custom 007 Dad jacket. Love it 😂

@AaronGrosch29 8 дней назад

I think he has a big house, a plane AND the Jacket. But someone's gotta keep this economy afloat. Keep it up Kevin, we appreciate it 😂

@labandonaldhock80 6 дней назад

@@AaronGrosch29 buy Tesla!!!!

@frankderio5757 7 дней назад

I love listening to bear porn because you can be completely right and still lose money. Unless you’re Nostradamus nobody knows. All the statistics and charts sounds good though!

@jjm00811 8 дней назад

we are 3x the market cap to GDP now as we were in 1995. overvalued. can take months to turn around but eventually it will.

@Master_Failure 8 дней назад

I don't need this reminder. I lived through the 2007 hell.

@capincrunch1184 8 дней назад

Oversupply of new vehicles should be concerning

@robinpowell5408 8 дней назад

Mass layoffs are coming I would imagine.

@nationsnumber1chump 8 дней назад

Aye! Vehicles yes. Commodities possibly not 😂 strike strike strike!

@NomadDad 8 дней назад

Maybe I'm wrong but I feel you're being too bearish right now Kev. There are definitely these warning signs but in the meantime there's good upside money to be made too

@Rayvisin 8 дней назад

Layoffs been happening. My job has been doing quiet layoffs as well. Over 10 percent

@stevengalske7130 8 дней назад

You know everything when you think you know nothing

@mkumar0101 8 дней назад

Meet Kevin is trying to do a Bill Ackman.

@mickeybeavison1053 8 дней назад

Taking a huge dump and enjoying a meet Kevin video!

@miken5261 7 дней назад

Enjoy

@Gabriel-mc9eo 8 дней назад

Come on Kevin, the Fed's cut 50 base point for election in favor to one candidate...

@JENAPALMER1 8 дней назад

We have not won on inflation. That is a joke. The real economy is horrible. Stocks dont reflect how the average American is suffering out here. The numbers are manipulated.

@hustlesmart1235 7 дней назад

Absolutely

@rmviv4rmviv443 8 дней назад

i encourage you all to create a physical book library not only on knowledge to learn but to safeguard knowledge and the preservation of history books at least get one book at a time thats 6000 years of knowledge and history at your finger tips you can also buy and preserve roman swords templars shields etc even be a recorder of history write in a diary history that day or take pictures and label the date names location weather etc record and perserve and record anything from your salary your migrations to perserving cookware and collection sets of coins from around the world or anything else and you prob could sell to historians

@ethair8975 8 дней назад

A giant game of chicken is happening right now.

@frankderio5757 7 дней назад

Lol Bears sound smart Bulls make money.

@matthewsemenuk8953 8 дней назад

A soft landing is like a Dude Perfect trick shot, first try.

@Carlos-im3hn 8 дней назад

Amazon and California have increased wages recently...so there could be wage inflation now in September 2024.

@DJRS2178 8 дней назад

Delfationary bust ahead - David Hunter

@TheSuperkkt 8 дней назад

Flippity floppity

@FUD-o8u 8 дней назад

Depression.

@aaa5diamond 8 дней назад

Thank you! I feel like I've been arguing an entire circus of people saying its 1995 all over again. You just can't help stupid, so great job setting out the facts!

@JayZ-to6up 8 дней назад

The fed needed to do what Paul Volcker did to correct the market. Jerome Fowl went the other way, let's see how that's going to work out.

@HardieLeCoq 8 дней назад

Wow, this is exactly what I had in mind. I feel like stocks could go either way right now, so betting on bond yields going down seems safer to me. I like TLT for these reasons.

@wormhole-r3l 8 дней назад

I wish we could go back to the 90s

@the7figureteam 8 дней назад

AWESOME! Thanks Kevin, for your Extensive research and sharing!

@TheRealSlobo 8 дней назад

AMazon just announced that they are ending the work from home program.That means they are hoping a lot of people will quit without being fired.And a lot will

@jonathanblanco3433 8 дней назад

This dude is a perma bear😂

@miken5261 7 дней назад

That is factually untrue. Be careful kimosabi.

@rami4791 8 дней назад

So are we crashing or not?

@justSTUMBLEDupon 8 дней назад

Blow off top more likely than a crash at the moment in my opinion.

@alexlopez5800 8 дней назад

Yes, in the next couple months

@sean2549 8 дней назад

2025 crash after election.

@Ray12121 8 дней назад

Most likely we are based on the overall warning signs. But past results don't guarantee future performance as they say. Crashes take about a year or two to fully materialize if you go look at the smp 500 from late 2007 to 2009. So for us it's in slow motion but when people look back in the future, it looks like a blink of an eye.

@labandonaldhock80 8 дней назад

Buy Tesla and hold!!!! Musk rules, did you watch SpaceX this week.??! Musk delivers!

@istvanpraha 6 дней назад

Cool but the rally ALREADY happened. Am I the only person who remembers where stocks were 2-4 weeks ago?The market apparently forgot

@markcarrillo2416 7 дней назад

No recession Bitcoin to Mars with Elon and Trump. $200K base case. $450K BTC Bull case 2025-2026

@justSTUMBLEDupon 8 дней назад

I just can’t shake that something bad is going to go down in the markets soon. There are plenty of charts and data backing it up, but I feel like it’s going to be bad. Like 50% losses bad. I hope I’m wrong. Nothing shows us losing 50%. Maybe 20% at worst, but I just can’t shake that feeling.

@matthevandaalen6289 7 дней назад

Fear. Good

@harutyung3767 8 дней назад

Tricky thing though, in the past, (08) unemployment was far reaching. It hit the blue and white collard jobs. I think the white collar jobs are currently taking the hit

@ajinkyarajguru431 8 дней назад

Can you address how commercial/residential real estate compared to this trend over each recession? Was the 2008 GFC unique in the housing market as the cause or was it just one of the dominoes that got most headlines ?

@peterquin1443 8 дней назад

Layoffs are already underway. Per Challenger job cuts, August was the highest month of layoff announcements since August 2009!

@Elcuale 8 дней назад

Hi Kevin, Gundlach the bond king, recently said he expects the 10 year yield to keep rising even in a recession because to deficit and issuance of bonds due to this. It wont work as in the past. Was wondering your thoughts on this

@ScottRachelson777 8 дней назад

Gundlach is very smart!

@robinpowell5408 8 дней назад

What about the businesses shutting down but you don't hear about ?

@istvanpraha 6 дней назад

True. MY job is going to shut down next year. Smaller company. Most employees haven't picked up the sign. I know they're shopping the business around but no one's made an offer yet because companies that would have bought us are not doing well either! Great economy!

@SwaggerjackProductions 8 дней назад

Kevin, could you please cover the potential East Coast and Gulf ports International Longshoremen's Union strike (that would occur October 1st if negotiations fail)? The automation of jobs seems to be a main point of contention. Biden has said that he wouldn't intervene. (45,000 union workers are involved.) This could be a major market mover and isn't getting enough attention. (The two sides aren't even openly negotiating at this point..) Keep up the good work bruddah ^^

@juneabe2076 8 дней назад

I belive recession had started beginning of 2024 actually.

@ponpokofamily 8 дней назад

`Number Unemployed for 27 Weeks & Over` in FRED works very well as well to predict the start of recession.

@SlotHits777 8 дней назад

there is no update, just attempts to paint a narrative to fuel positioning .. not exactly best way to gain audience faith. Anyone can cherry pick to support their bias bs

@magthepoboy 8 дней назад

If you call this cherry picking, then he definitely has a bunch of them. The crazy thing is there are more cherries he coudle've grabbed to further support his thesis.

@istvanpraha 6 дней назад

I mean, call out cherry picking, but the MSM is so freaking ridiculously bullish that traditional economic sites are basically tabloids, at least the past few years. If you watch the Fed speeches or listen to earnings calls, or scan the BLS report, it's all way more bearish than is reported.Mainstream outlets have just been pushing out bullish sentiment and upgrading stocks for next to no reason. If you want a headache, read why LOW was upgraded today. A word salad as bad as Kamala Harris talking about school buses

@Jfromes1 7 дней назад

For the record: Meet Kevin has a huge trustfund from his dad that he lives off from. He isn't self made and his investment advice is terrible

@istvanpraha 6 дней назад

I mean, could be true but most of us "know" him as a real estate flipper who perhaps got lucky during a bubble. Also if you watch the video, his opinions have zero to do with the content

@redwoodpark1038 8 дней назад

@meetkevin If you haven't already you should talk about how this revision by the bureau of Labor statistics is the largest it has ever been and with the exception to time frames around COVID, The other big revisions were during the great recession and around 2000-2001

@DosNacho2161 8 дней назад

i dont think you have any idea what ai is to the market really because its everywhere.......terminator here we come? immm loookiiinnn fooooorrr ssaaarrraaahhh hcooonnnnnoooohhhhhhhh

@TrulyS2345 8 дней назад

Flip Flop Again

@hammo974 8 дней назад

This year shouldn’t cut rates but we gonna get 100bp cut, so it will be worth seeing at the end of this year and next first half of the year😂😂

@zachR937 8 дней назад

Every bad advice every time

@cszafarczyk63 8 дней назад

You and Tom Lee should do an interview

@marekpazo 8 дней назад

When you say bond yields have to come down. Are you talking about short-term or long-term? Because who in their right mind would be buying 30 year at 4%?... Knowing that the only way the government can pay off the debt is by inflation. Let me know your thoughts.

@MVPTC 8 дней назад

TMF to 100+

@jamesd5356 8 дней назад

Thank you for your videos, they're gold

@philyogaeveryday321 8 дней назад

Dark Elves scrying the long bonds are saying a soft landing.

@geniouslin2 8 дней назад

Next video: I just turned mega bullish😂

@miken5261 7 дней назад

Nobody can predict a recession. Not even Algos. It is wise to see all angles of this uncertain equation. I'm in with one foot outside.

@andy96356 8 дней назад

Inflation at 2.5 rates at 5.5 .its simple we need to bring down rates to match inflation . More than likely soft landing or no landing american economy very strong.

@CrazyDJVEVO 8 дней назад

Is this dude still holding afford puts lol

@UltimateStaredown 8 дней назад

Like TLT, VCLT bets on lower yields (and has higher dividend while you wait) Pros? Cons?

@hadoopsd 8 дней назад

Quoting Times of India 😂. As an Indian American I can safely say DONT BELIEVE THE CRAP

@istvanpraha 6 дней назад

To be fair, I've been researching why some stocks are going up for "no reason" and the only link is sometimes to Indian website. American media is so ridiculously bullish right now that they're just ignoring most reality.

@wayne0320 8 дней назад

Bullish.

@mattbailey112 7 дней назад

Hit the nail on the head, when you said ai was getting jobs… the economy doesn’t need workers anymore. This is just getting started.

@hardyk2010 8 дней назад

007 DAD.. no investment advice about treasury bonds?

@matthewsemenuk8953 8 дней назад

A lot of money gonna change hands in the next year or two. Careful with your leverages. A lot of good trades to be made, and a lot to be lost.

@bolognatony8739 8 дней назад

Kevin, follow up with a video based on financials of the banksters. The momey control tells another story.

@bidbuytomasito 7 дней назад

Soft landing is subjective. Invest in tech for long term and you'll do well. Ignore FUD.

@jerrycolello8191 8 дней назад

Hh update?

@MeetKevin 8 дней назад

Soon

@DxWangZ 7 дней назад

Easy. Just declare a recession back in JAN-2022 to SEP-2023, similar to 1990 recession.

@NichoD3 7 дней назад

LOL Kevin didnt need to add [Hint: It's Bad.] in his title. I assumed it was going to be bad from your previous month of video titles.

@dengedmond435 8 дней назад

I like this English channel very much.

@SoundFriendly 7 дней назад

please put a low-cut filter at 90hz. Your voice is quite "boomy".

@thetiredtourist3927 8 дней назад

who cares about the past.... this is NOW!

@justSTUMBLEDupon 8 дней назад

Double O Seven Dad!

@NavajoNaation 8 дней назад

757

@jeremysimmons7090 8 дней назад

I think this dude bleaches his Ash Love the content man just not you …

@tehuti112 8 дней назад

Wtf. You don’t have to watch. His energy is contagious and positive.

@TiagoRamosVideos 7 дней назад

👌

@Jeffhuebner 8 дней назад

Vest rocks!

@ingenieroivan1 7 дней назад

Great analysis Kevin, thank you.

@mok822 7 дней назад

Does this mean the stocks will go down or up 😂

@matthevandaalen6289 7 дней назад

Freaking flipflopping all the time. 😂

@Bryan-yq9pz 8 дней назад

Not Good.

@andrewtrimis1796 8 дней назад

lets go

@bartafitness 8 дней назад

Furst

@rmviv4rmviv443 8 дней назад

4000bc 1st biblical era beggining of garden of eden ends with a flood at 2000bc .... 0 ad begins with birth of christ about 2000ad possible rapture and 2nd coming of christ possible end of world basically god is on a timeline of every 2000 years for a major change according to my research

@anishswaminathan4827 8 дней назад

@SuMMeRFLi5 7 дней назад

Well, Hello Gorgeous! In the 90's remember, we were highly optimistic and more hopeful world relations would increase as we saw the collapse of Soviet regime in 91 and 97 the agreement was made for China to take the reigns of Hong Kong. Hopeium was alive, but some pain and backhanded deals that seriously impacted optimism. Now? Obviously you've tuned into market fear. My hope is for better relations - it's always been that way. Anyway, I apologize for miscommunicating. And ... I'm sorry. Know that you're more than just a finance guru (so so much more). We're also here for YOU! We love hearing about the family, beautiful Lauren, how Jack's coming along w/ the nursery, the kids and your other interests too. You may never see this, but I love you. ❤🤍💙🫂

@steadymobbin. 8 дней назад

Fed

@BikeHelmetMk2 8 дней назад

That pattern today looks a lot like 2003, but it ticked down. What actions did the Fed take there? Aggressive rate cuts? It looks like it legged down a bit and the employment numbers stabilized.