In Stratnewsglobal’s Roundtable series, three young scholars with distinct specialisations on China, analysed and answered questions on a range of issues. Anushka Saxena, a research analyst at the Takshashila Institution in Bengaluru, says that Beijing’s perception of its foreign and domestic situation has darkened.
Xi Jinping himself is warning of “significant challenges”, she pointed out, of “changes unforseen in a century” and that “opportunities for development are concurrent with great risks and challenges.”
In other words, China’s drive to boost domestic consumption and rely less on exports is not happening smoothly. The environment in the South China Sea has become hostile, and the path to technological and scientific progress is being impeded by outside forces.
The anti-corruption campaign has ensnared officials across government departments including the PLA. But the one point which stands out is Xi Jinping’s iron control over the ship of state.
Amit Kumar, also of the Takshashila Institution, focused on the Chinese economy. He argues that the global economic slowdown has impacted on China’s heavily export-oriented industrial base, add to that growing centralization with power being taken away from local authorities and the securitization of development.
Government’s crackdown on the real estate sector has compounded the problem since it contributed from 25% to 33% of GDP. This was done because the authorities wanted to direct capital away from speculative real estate transactions towards the innovation economy.
Suyash Desai who studies China’s PLA from his base in Taiwan, is working on his Mandarin language while also writing a newsletter called the PLA Bulletin. He talked about China’s efforts to intimidate Taiwan through aggressive manoeuvres at sea.
In his view, China is in no position at least for a decade, to be able to mount an invasion of the island. It lacks the capacity in terms of amphibious capability and there’s no telling how things could go if the US intervenes in support of Taiwan.
Tune in for more in this conversation with three young China scholars.
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3 окт 2024
