Interesting video. May I humbly ask if there is a possiblefallacy in your basic argument? Your key point is that the odds in the start of the match can’t represent the real probability of 2.5 goals during the whole match, and at the same time reflect the fact that the probability of a goal is greater in the second half than in the beginning of the match. Hence, we can systematicly gain profit from backing on kick-off and laying after the first 15-25 minutes. But isn’t this «2. half effect» included in the live odds for laying bets, every minute og the game? Isn’t what you call «market stalling» exactly the manifistation of that effect? During 1000 games, the stalling will exactly null the profit of your strategy, and leave you with negative EV due to fees?
It's nice to see you back man. I really value your opinion and I find it more than a coincidence that you happen to make a video of what I have been thinking about
Hi mate first let me congratulate you for amazing stuff you doing here, second Im doing betfair trading for 3 years and Im using that website they stream most of the games around the world, with 4 seconds delay, bundesliga per example is feed one with 0 delay. This all for 25 pounds per month.
All depends on what yr happy with . I go for just over evens each bet ..I bet 5% of my pot and not had to add more money to the account for years .and the way i look at it now is I'm betting with there money and paying myself a 2 weekly wage .which goes up every 2 weeks as only take out 15% of my pot .. nice easy trebles allways long
There is one factor to consider, is the manager called Gareth Southgate? If the answer is Yes, place a lay bet on England to win the tournament. Even if they make the final, they will lose.
@Kie Millet please can you please make a video with the football predictor called aisportpredictor and tell us how it works ? I saw people won high odds > 50 daily, but I don t know how to use it :(
I doubt your model really...when you dont know what is best period lengt from past to use then you dont know what model works.period length from past is key
Hey mate, long time no see. England was the only one that i was indecisive. thanks for the tactic explanation. i am not gonna write my explanations but in short here is the conclusion i came with. My selection is based on value, some selections i don't think they gonna win but i anticipate a nice swing in price so i did a dutching: Germany @6.6 Portugal@8.2 Spain@9.8 Belgium@22 Croatia@46 Hungary@120 I might close my position on a couple selections after the group stage. Sending good vibes to you all and have fun!
Trading sports betting dont need any historical data bookmakers spend millions to have all that system stats etc .... What you need to focus is to find value true the odds there is edge the back or lay simple as that and ignore the stats everthing have price is not about you predict right is about the price ...
Great analysis but I would disagree with you about shaw playing the Guardiol role. Assuming he’s 💯 fit, I would be tempted to play Foden on the left and Bellingham as a 10 and have shaw holding the width when Foden cuts inside.
I genuinely thought you meant are the team not tall enough . Which is also a fair question. For Spain maybe. But England have a pretty tall team overall.
Hello kie. Am your new follower Please I just wanna know if you do daily predictions tips or would be aiming to cause I watched a video you made about using a module to analyze football predictions and I really think it cool just that it take a lot of mathematical work which I believe it above 75-80% ...but if you can do that for your fan it would be awesome... 👍🏻🤗👌
Brilliant video ,mate . Well thought out , very informative and well presented . These are the 4 I am now using for all my trading both football and tennis .
In my hypothetical team, Trent would play RB and invert into midfield, making Branthwaite a LCB of a 3 in possession. Given Luke Shaw still looks injured, the options for left back are surely Gomez, Branthwaite, Trippier or Konsa (3 CB's and a RB). Not like Branthwaite would be miles ahead of the others, but I really like him for his physicality and his left footedness. Also on form he's probably had the best season out of them 4 imo. As for Foden we have seen how less effective he is out wide compared to playing as a 10 for about 7 years now. Unfortunately I think we lack a profile in the sqaud (presumably from LB) to effectively hold the LW position in possession whilst foden moves centrally to play alongside Jude. Perhaps Jude and Foden will work in this tournament (hopefully it will) but to me it makes no sense on paper and hasn't been great when tried for England in previous internationals.
To be fair I wrote that at the start and it is a very interesting video. Although I disagree always good to hear other peoples opinions. I do agree on foden so I would play him as a 10 and Bellingham as an 8 behind. But let’s definitely not revert to the famous scholes playing left wing 😀
This would be the best version of Bellingham and Foden playing together in my opinion, it does makes the team a little lighter defensively which is why I would prefer to only play one. I just can't see Gareth going down this route though unfortunately (but hopefully I'm proved wrong).
I agree with them being world class, but what is the limit on how many world class players you can fit into one team. If hypothetically Mbappe, Messi, Haaland and De Bruyne were also English, would those 4 plus Kane, Jude and Foden all have to play together?
