Revealing The Easiest Trade of the Season 

Thanks for the feedback! Granted the point regarding the loss of players. City were 1.54 to beat Newcastle last season. Differences between the games: (Ake, Gundo & De Bruyne -> Gvardiol, Kovacic, Alvarez) and (Longstaff, Lascelles, Wilson -> Tonali, Schar, Isak). Maybe I'm missing something, but in my opinion those changes don't constitute City having a 11.5 % less chance of winning. You have to go back to April 2022 to find a a home game where City (Liverpool at 2.02) had higher odds than against Newcastle. Looking at the key games, the price against Newcastle stands out to me, but maybe I'm favouring City and marking down Newcastle a bit too much. Newcastle: *1.87* Chelsea: *1.60* Madrid: *1.60* Arsenal: *1.71* Bayern: *1.64* Liverpool: *1.70* Newcastle (last season): *1.54* Spurs: *1.51* Brighton: *1.23* Man United: *1.46* Dortmund: *1.24* Real Madrid (Champions League winning year): *1.50* Atletico Madrid: *1.30*

Agree, I thought exactly the same. The match odds weren’t mis-priced.

Thank you! I actually think Newcastle are slightly overrated, although still very good, but that didn't really enter my thinking for this position. It was based purely on fixtures. You're right that they could have beat Liverpool and Brighton, but if the odds were accurate, the chances of Newcastle beating both was just 16.8%. Still could have happened of course and in that case I would have cashed out for a loss. As for entering in after the first game, this was something I could have done, but Villa is still a tough ish fixture, and if Newcastle lost that too the profit from this trade would have been much higher.

Any team can beat any other on the day. You're " logic " is all hindsight and worthless.

@@johnristheanswer Not the case, every team rely more on stats and logic to set out thier tatics.

@nofearjustlove1508 Of course it's the case. Stats only take you so far. The game itself determines the outcome. BTW , it's * their *.

@@johnristheanswer It is their.

No

@frankolacko1685 Are you sure ? If the market is open, you can't the money out from that market as I understand it.

You can hedge and therefore get your stake back but they won't pay out till May.@@johnristheanswer

Not for long