For the under 2.5 goals strategy, I find selecting matches where the odds are high (the market think there will be lots of goals) are quite profitable as the odds fall quicker meaning you can trade out quicker. Usually when a free scoring team plays a rubbish team, the rubbish team will park the bus. That’s the opportunity you need to make your money. Have a look at this angle next season if you have time. The strike rate works for me.
Have you seen evidence recent form makes much difference? I find ELO means way more. My algo could be wrong but when I back-tested form as a rating it was almost exactly 50/50.