NIO has sold over 500,000 EV's to date. ONVO presales are way above expectations according to Willian Li. Possibly around 250,000 at this point. The majority of the Chinese population lives in giant apartment buildings where home charging is not possible. ONVO is affordable and with battery swap they solved this problem for the majority of their population. NIO's problem is retrofitting their Gen 2 swap stations to accept ONVO. Good problems to have.
Dont hold your breath for $3.60. Under $4.20 has a zillion buy orders waiting. Somebody has to sell shares for $3.60 and good luck finding that stooge(s) because it wont happen.
Great analysis with details. I also believe that NIO in 2026 can reach the point of Break-even. I also think If Europe didn't increase the tariffs, we might have seen it earlier. In my opinion, NIO should focus mostly on the countries which are truly welcoming NIO's technologies & products
If an intercontinental ballistic missile is heading your way, the size and composition of your portfolio becomes irrelevant. Thus, from a purely financial perspective, you should largely ignore existential risk. Great video
Interesting to see where we have been. It is depression all right. So many macro factors that NIO has no control over. Good news is they are executing and doing all the rights things. Future looks good and can't come soon enough.
Marcel: LOVE the year by year large view comparison. If I was doing a pitch deck for institutional interest, this is would be my approach. In my strong opinion, the stock price will rebound very sharply at some point, and it will be much earlier than people expect. There is a tremendous amount of risk capital out there that wants to be first ... and they will jump in long before things become more settled, proven, and obvious.
Good to put things in historical perspective. COVID and wars didn't help with supply chain and interest issues. I think management has been pretty adept though buying the factories, making their own chips, adding new product lines, new partners, etc. They are adjusting. I think you're spot on with the chart and when things will possibly turn around. They need to begin showing some break-even quarters before the stock price recovers, but this is a hold for me (and a buying the dip time). Thanks for showing your perspective.👍
Thanx for the video. You are stating "re-accelerating" at the Macro Level in China. With all the information and feedback I get from China I understand the official figures not displaying the recent economical and social difficulties in China, not only in real estate but throughout the all markets particularly in the tech sector and the workforces of all levels. How do you value this in?
Great summary and prediction. Thanks so much Marcel. To me China is getting weaker bit by bit. America seems keeping up the all-time highs, but God knows one day the country would be hit by the high interest rates. The only truth is that there is no winner and people are suffering.
Good summary. Interesting though, that now your expectation of growth for 2024 is 50%, meaning that the guidance of ~250K you said won't be reached in your views, has changed. There is so much uncertainty on the revenue side of NIO Power's partners, that NIO could easily have a catalyst on unexpected surprise, but it won't happen until 2026-2027, beside, ET9 will put NIO on the map, again, if the launch is sucessful. Reaching 250K this year, will open investors eyes again and with Onvo sales, 2025 will continue the growth. is an easy Hold.
I am not expecting 50% in 2024. My personal case is below that, but like I said in the video at current Year to date data we are trending at 50% YoY growth but I think that’s largely due to the Q2 base effect.
Thanks for your data and analysis. We are concerned about the tariff pressures being applied by the West. We hope to follow more information on NIO's domestic and international business plans
Marcel, what's the cash flow looking like? Is it a race to turn it to cash flow positive before running out of cash with all the cap exp spend on Onvo, Firefly, Nio house, Nio phone, and swap stations? I closed my eyes and doubled down on triple witch expiration to average down. Wish me luck. Down lots right now.
Greetings from Canada, I think you are too pessimistic. Market is always forward looking. 1) Onvo and Firefly each sold at each at 10 000 cars per month and NIO at 22 000 - 27 000, which will gave us a range of 42 000 - 46 000 by mid 2025 2) swap will be fully profitable at avr 60 swaps per day / around 900 000 cars on the road that will be reach probably end of 2025 3) NIO don’t need europ in the short term, there is no market for 80 000 $ EU Chinese cars 4) most important NIO need to cut R&D till they break even or profitability. They can achieve the following, the rest of the catalysts will be gravy : Middle East, partnerships / US, thechnology selling, etc. There is no sens valuating this company at cash in the bank account. The only risk is another dilution …
I was taking didi (BYD Qin L I think) in Beijing today trying to spot NIO cars, but I didn’t see any so far. I saw some Li n Xpeng cars, but physical appearance wise was meh. Lastly, the cab BYD range was 900km++ I was shocked it’s probably a hybrid
because it soaks USD investments out of emerging markets and into perceived safe heaven USD assets. Also high rates mean less appetite for risk assets such as Chinese equities, especially it expected cash flows are far out in the future, like with unprofitable names like NIO is the case. Its a matter of opportunity cost and risk free rate.
this video does not anything about battery swap partners, revenue generate from battery swapping. nio been signing partnerships left and right and eventually those partnerships will generate revenue for company. nio is not only about car sales. and this content creator seems to have lack of knowledge on company business model.
American money is leaving China there is zero apatite for Chinese stocks especially over this side of the planet where ev’s have zero resale value, in our country dealers aren’t even talking second hand ev’s they don’t want to go near then. Nio in fairness can solve a problem with battery swap but I think we’re many many many years away from seeing this stock even go past $10 , dilution is imminent and this will further trash the stock, they even state this in there report and any savvy investor who read it would stay well clear of this stock. My initial investment on this was a 5 year plan and that now looks to be extended to 10 years, I’ll get it back but it will be a painful journey. Just thank my lucky stars I didn’t buy this thing when it was at 60, I’m sub $20 thankfully.
My average is about $35 so way under water. I think when interest rates are cut which will happen soon and misinformation about evs disappears nio will rise. Everything goes full circle and globally we are going electric.
The writing is on the wall. Despite everybody "thinking the stock price should be higher", this is a penny stock. Those investors still thinking and hoping they are going to be millionaires from NIO are more likely to lose their entire investment than get rich from NIO. Im one of them. Down 68 percent total investment in NIO and I've been in for 4 years, never sold a single share, and lowered by DCA many times by buying on the dip. It's gotten me nowhere. This is a terrible investment and not likely to get any better. Any you tuber keeps citing factor A,B,C, D on why they are sure NIO will succeed are just blowing hot air. Proof is in the stock price.
NIO stock sucks. Bottom line. They could sell 20,000,000 cars this year and the stock will still be $5 in my opinion. The only people making money on NIO are management
I doubt it personally, but if it did I'd load up a lot and probably sell off other stocks even if they lost half there value in the event the market had a giant correction. The stock would be a good bet for me
