me too. i’m also very happy that zone won sound. in a year where best picture is such a lock, it’s nice to spread some of the below the line awards out to make sure none of the big hitters go home empty handed
Really rooting for Boy and the Heron to win the Oscar. Miyazaki is one of the greatest filmmakers of all time, and he returned from retirement to create his most personal film ever. He deserves more recognition!
He def deserves to make movies for himself after years of ghibli... but spiderverse was absolutely a better film this year.. but we know how these things go
@Lamidemonami7891 boy and the heron was very "film". Loved it, but it doesn't even compare to the best of ghibli. Spiderverse had groundbreaking music and animation, and personally I had more fun at spiderverse than boy and heron. Obviously boy and heron is more a "high quality film" so oscars no question... but I think spiderverse should have at least been nominated for hest score and best visual effects (considering its more effects, less classic "animation")
Why did people think Cillian had home vantage at Bafta? He's the first Irish born to win the best lead actor at baftas ever. It was the biopic thing that was probably the main factor.
He was great in the role. So was Paul. But, many still thought Paul over Cillian despite thinking homefield advantage. Two great performances and two different types of acting roles. Cillian actually won more critics awards throughout award season. Still love them both!
@@Angie-pe9uqActual Cillan was in lead role in BBC show Peaky Blinders which was a huge hit and BBC is related to BAFTAs. Even Peaky Blinders season 5 won best show at BAFTAs.
The Visual Effects category is more competitive considering there isn’t a frontrunner. The Animated Feature race is a two horse race between Spiderverse and Boy and the Heron.
competitive? nah, Boy and the Heron has it in the bag, the Annies have very little bearing because Miyazaki is just more appealing to general awards voters. It's a good batch of nominees, though.
@@JDLuty-oc5hk I know how you feel. It arrived in my neck of the woods just this week, so I spent months begging for a way to see it. It'll be worth the wait.
@nathantucker8489 I'm not if you watch Zone of Interest, the thing that gives its magnificent yet incredibly distressing vibe is the sound Its a 95 minute film with about 25 minutes of story & 10 of actual dialogue The baby screaming, the wind, the trains going in & out of the camp, all of it is truly unsettling to an extent where I personally struggled to watch, on an artistic scale I think it's 3rd best film this decade lthough I wouldn't even put it in my top 10 of the year because it is so upsetting & for me at least unrewatchable Though it throughly deserves the win
@CalRoberts-gx3jt I don't care about the zone of interest, it's not winning director and picture at the Oscars. Let's get that's right for sure. Oppenheimer's sounds were more ambitious than zone of interest. Oppenheimer will still win sound at the Oscars anyway
CILLIAN MURPHY for Best Actor was my favourite win of the night. I’m praying with all my heart he wins SAG & the OSCAR. 🙏🧘♀️ Just seeing him up on stage tonight… he is very deserving & I’m so happy for him. I adore his speeches. He speaks so calmly. He doesn’t rush. He says what he needs to say while getting a few laughs & making a few great points. Love that for him. Thrilled for all of Oppenheimer’s 7 wins. 🏆 I’m not at all surprised Zone won for sound. Even though I haven’t seen the film yet… all I’ve heard about Zone is about its sound design so it must be deserving. Very interested to see how Best Actress shakes out at SAG. Hopeful Lily makes a triumphant return to the race!
They’re giving the SAG to Pocahontas- no doubt about it, actors are more fake than a 2 dollar bill… but; is going to be a Denzel/Casey.. Viola/Meryl.. Glenn/Olivia situation at the SAGs. Even though Lilo doesn’t deserve anything.
Good job, this what an expect does, I also predicted Boy and the Heron, Mia McKenna-Bruce, make-up, zero wins for Barbie, all acting winners, ended up 252 out of 3018, not very bad, but you were terrific.
Allegedly no animated film has lost the category when they have a combination of GG and BAFTA. It's something to think about. This stat even called Brave winning animated feature. To add on: usually this award combo comes along in an expected consensus. It never usually correlates to an "upset".
Not a single animated film won an Oscar for Best Animated Feature if they’re not nominated at ACE Eddie Award for Best Animated Feature. The Boy and the Heron wasn’t nominated there. Spiderverse was nominated. What wins there usually wins the Oscar. The only ACE Eddie Award winner that didn’t win the Oscar is The LEGO Movie. Big Hero 6 won the Oscar that year but it was nominated for ACE Eddie Award for Best Animated Feature.
@@laurajones1773 yes this is another true stat. I think the guilds are just generally averse to nominating foreign films in animated in general but we will see how things go. I remember a few years ago Sing 2 was cleaning up random tech guild nominations because I guess nominating Flee wouldn't have worked. Mario is somewhat doing that this year too.
American Fiction winning over Oppenheimer, Poor Things and The Zone of Interest (three movies that BAFTA not just liked, but LOVED), is genuinely so impressive. Really happy for it, 'cause it does deserve all the awards for its screenplay.
If Paul Giamatti and Lily Gladstone win SAG, they'd be in the exact same positions (plus a Golden Globe in the case of Giamatti) that Brendan Fraser and Michelle Yeoh were last year going into Oscar night, so if they win SAG, I'm predicting them for the Oscar.
Michelle Yeoh was the lead of best picture winner and was already a living legend. definitely not comparable with Lily. even if she wins sag, she can easily lose the oscar.
@@nafischowdhury7375 This is true but a second Oscar for Emma Stone isn't as exciting as awarding a Native American woman a Golden Statue. Sometimes it's the narrative BUT I think her narrative is not as strong as Michelle Yeoh last year.
@@scorpioninpinkXDD i hate when people choose who they want to win an Oscar based on skin color. It's should be decided by the quality of the perfomance and not skin color. Emma Stone gave incredible and one of the best perfomances ever while Gladstone were just ok.
I disagree with the idea that a movie can only be #2 if it win Director or Screenplay. That would mean Women Talking was #2 last year and we know that is definitely not true. I still have Anatomy, Zone, and Poor Things above American Fiction for Picture. Not that it matters tho.
You guys are incredibly good at not letting your own opinion influence your predictions, so it’s incredibly disheartening just how consistently you’ve underestimated Boy and the Heron purely because you don’t like it. You keep doing it in every video without ever producing real justification (apart from y’all just not vibing with it)
In my opinion Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse was visually very interesting and a fun movie, but The Boy And The Heron is on another level. It is a deep and moving masterpiece, incredibly inventive and with a great message. I really hope the Oscars follow the Bafta's and Golden Globe'se example 🙏
Neil Corbould is looking very likely to win an Oscar this year (he is nominated in the Best VFX category 3 times this year for MISSION IMPOSSIBLE 7, THE CREATOR, and NAPOLEON respectively). Also, TIFF People's Choice stat is looking strong this year! If AMERICAN FICTION wins Adapted Screenplay Oscar, it will continue a trend of TIFF People's Choice winner winning at least 1 above-the-line category (since 2008, only 2 movies failed to win above-the-line: WHERE DO WE GO NOW (2011) and THE FABELMANS (2022)).
@@DieHardAlien GODZILLA MINUS ONE does not have any other nomination, and lone nominees almost never win unless it is an undeniable frontrunner like JUNGLE BOOK (2016) (the 3 Neil Corbould movies are the only ones this year with additional nominations). EX MACHINA was a PGA nominee as well as an Original Screenplay Oscar nominee. The category favors best picture nominees or the “most Oscar-y” films of the bunch.
I was questioning Cole for so adamantly bucking the lead acting correlation with the Makeup/Hair category trend... or at least I was until tonight's Hollywood Makeup Artist and Hair Stylist Guild Awards. The guilds have stuck by Maestro. Poor Things took home nothing. Which tells me that Kazu Hiro has the secret sauce to break this trend when he's nominated. This film's pulling another Bombshell... and Kay Georgiou's coming along for the ride this time.
The Boy and the Heron was such an emotionally deep movie about transiency and legacy if you're a big Miyazaki fan. Spiderverse on the other hand was one of the best movies of the year. They deserve both to win for different reasons.
American Fiction winning here probably secured it for Adapted, shockingly. Not to boast but calling American Fiction as a contender in September based solely on the premise has gotta be my big Oscars brag for the year
Killers NEVER had a hype, it has the WORST screenplay of the entire year, Razzie worthy, but people pretend otherwise because the of their blind love for Scorsese. The push for the race win was always impossible to pull off because Gladstone has the worst written character of the year and it is a supporting role.
@@MrKadirbey Take your own advice, girl, and read the book Killers is based on, it is called "Killers of the Flower Moon: The Osage Murders and the Birth of the FBI", once you do, you will see that the script of Scorsese is trash. A little education never heard nobody.
@@manantial773 it's a non-fiction book with very little in terms of character development, Scorsese made it into an emotionally strong character-driven film. They are companion works, they're not supposed to be the same.
@@Haldered It is a terrible adaption that deletes the nuances of the Natives, instead, it gives all the complexity to Leo's character enterally. Molly is an underwritten character in a weak script. And no, Gladstone does NOT elevate the weak material.
I don't usually care what wins awards but when American Fiction won Adaptated Screenplay I literally cheered Cord Jefferson is the modern Grahame Greene, a genuine artist with something powerful & provocative to say
@SketchbookHR It absoutley was, I'm a huge fan of classical cinema & seen thousands of films There's about 5 which since I was born in 1996 which I would say are landmarks -Saving Private Ryan, Truman Show, Man On Wire, Whiplash, & This
Rewarding The Boy And The Heron is not "throwing Miyazaki a bone" by any means. I do not even like anime but when I saw this in a huge theater I knew without a doubt that it was the best animated movie of the year and one of the most emotional experiences I had at the movies in 2023. The flash and glitz and pop and sizzle and candy-colors and ADHD style compositions and editing of Spiderverse is just not enough, people. Id sit my 9-year-old boy down to watch Spiderverse on a rainy afternoon. I'd sit my 9-year old and myself and my girlfriend and my mother and my sister and my father and my aunt and my uncle and my grandfather down to watch The Boy And The Heron.
It also helped the fact that Miyazaki was never nominated in the category before and this being his last film they felt more compelled to vote for it People claim it's inaccesible and don't get the film, but I've seen a lot of people mentioning the movie has stuck with them longer and when they rewatch it, they like it more, even love it. Spider-verse does have hype and support, but most likely BAFTA didn't feel urgent to reward it, specially since it ends on a cliffhanger and there's a third movie coming along. Miyazaki's movie is more like an event, because you never know if he'll make another one in the future.
I get shocked every time Maestro loses makeup that was the most impressive prosthetic makeup I have ever seen in a film. They aged Bradley Cooper like he came back from the future to play the role it looked INSANELY real
I think, as far as acting goes, we have to wait for SAG just like last year. Again, baftas favors mostly British films and sag and Oscar’s are made up of mostly American filmmakers. If Emma and Cillian win sag, then yeah, they’re a lock. But we have to wait for SAG. Bafta’s is not as strong of a precursor as people thinks it is.
@@manantial773 No, I am being realistic. Everyone tried to use bafta as a major precursor to Oscar night last year and we all saw how that went. The truth of the matter is, is SAG will give us a better idea of who will be the frontrunner for Oscar’s just like it did last year seeing as how all the acting categories last year translated to Oscar’s. Cillian is most likely a lock for actor but jury is still out between Emma and Lily here in the states since KOTFM has gotten more love here than overseas. And it’s not a lie that a British awards show favors more of the British productions. That’s not delusional it’s just fact. Look at last year, ke Huy Quan was a lock all season except for bafta which went to Barry Keoghan and Jaime Lee and Angela Bassett were the frontrunners all season except for bafta which went to Kerry condon both for banshees, an European production at an European awards show. EEAOO swept all the award shows stateside. Obviously, not only British films win at baftas but the majority of the voting body do tend to favor their country’s own productions. So, don’t know where you see the delusion.
@@alldownhill01 You are not only delusional, algo an ignorant. Last year, a German film won the biggest award, EEAAO lost because no one in Europe liked it, it is not about British/American/German, it is about sensibilities. And only 3 years ago, all four acting winners from Bafta translated into the Oscars. You have to end your delusion of seeing other awards shows of predictors, since every voter just votes for what he likes, and to use the logic behind the vote.
Honeys, accept that you were too biased against American Fiction and Boy and the Heron due to your own disliking of the movies. I have been saying BEFORE the Oscar nominations that Barbie will win song ONLY, time to accept it. So happy that Zone beat Anatomy, all the snarky people saying that it would not had any chance if Anatomy was in the category, now STFU forever.
@@Haldered They treat Barbie like they treated others blockbusters. Critics and some of Film Twitter are the only ones that think that it needs to be treated as an indie film.
Barbie wont win adapted. Its the weakest in that category. Its between American and Oppenheimer with thr former my tip to win. Even Poor Things is better.
As much as I love Cillian Murphy's subdued performance ni Oppenheimer, I think this is the year of the incomparable Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers. It was such a unique and brilliant performance that doesn't need an effective make up transformation, special visual effects or a CGI to make it more pleasing and engaging to watch.
It was Paul playing basically himself. The performance was great but not a stretch for him by any means. Cillian on the other hand was nuanced, demanding, one man lead of a three hour movie over a somewhat boring subject.
The Creator will probably win Visual Effects at the Oscars and it would be deserving. I think what gives it the edge over Godzilla is that it also got Sound. It had literally zero nominations for sound even at critics groups and still got nominated
The Annies are always something to take with a grain of salt - Wreck it Ralph (2012) and How to Train Your Dragon II (2014) won big at the Annies but lost the Oscar…but NEITHER had a BAFTA nomination. That being said, BAFTA has often done its own thing with animated feature (Kubo and the Two Strings of 2016 and Klaus of 2019 both won the BAFTA but lost the Oscar). We really have a race with The Boy and the Heron and Across the Spider-verse, but I think it’s more because of the BAFTAs and not the Annies. Ultimately I don’t think the Annies hold as much weight. Edit: But I will stick with my Oscar prediction in favor of Across The Spider Verse because I think the Oscars go with popularity or brand name in this category. Across the Spider Verse could be Toy Story 4 (which lost the BAFTA to Klaus and the Globe to Missing Link, two different awards bodies that often do their own thing). Perhaps my argument that the Annie’s don’t matter doesn’t apply here after all because popularity won the day with Toy Story 4 over Annie’s favorite Klaus at the 2020 Oscars.
I agree. As long as Spiderverse wins the PGA, I think it will win the Oscar. Also, the BAFTAs awarded The LEGO Movie which wasn’t even nominated at the Oscar.
Or because they are not familiar with the fall of the Imperialisms of Japan. Or because they do not care about the father and the aunt treatment towards the mother. Many possible reasons, the movie is weird and deeply unlikable, still charming and magical for me, but I get people's reactions.
There’s too much precedence of makeup going with actor or actress. Poor Things is definitely getting Makeup if Emma Stone is winning. Cooper is done. He’s not winning anything.
I just realized that the acting awards these recent years have the same winner starting from the Globes all the way to the Oscars. So it's most of the time, they got a clean sweep. Tbh, I don't look forward to the acting category now because they are predictable. All the other categories are fun because you'll never know, every one still has a fair chance. Just saying. And btw, the Brits love Miyazaki.
can people explain to me why the screenplay ofr american fiction is so highly appreciated. Like it has good ideas and yeah he adapt his own thinh, but the dramatic arc and added human problems are so basic abcs and it screams mid?!
So, am I the only one who thinks American Fiction doesn't work? It's a great premise and when it deals with that premise, it can be fun, but the problem for me is that the film bounces between two different tones that never feel like part of a cohesive whole, making the very promising satire feel out of place when the more grounded moments are played so straight (I was also not entirely convinced by Sterling K. Brown, but that's another story).
I agree. It was definitely a good idea. But it wasn’t developed enough. It was like they filmed the first draft. The story was all over the place. And very predictable.
I was honestly shocked how much of the (very cliché and often melodramatic) family drama was played so straight... Especially in a film attempting to be so 'meta'. I agree the film was at its best though when it was comedically tackling its main premise.
@@michaelangelo2192 The family drama was not a cliché at all, Spoiler, the sudden death of a sister and the struggling gay man in a Black family are themes we have never seen in film, in TV we have, but not in film. And they were masterfully done, so was the phycological condition of the mother, maybe you hate complex emotions, but this is on you, not on the movie.
I'm sticking with Barbie for adapted. The snub talk is gonna have the Academy wanting to make up with Gerwig, just like they did with Angela Bassett by giving her an honorary award this year
The Academy has 12 000 members, the honorary Oscars are decided among the board of directors that has 10 members. 12 000 people DO not vote like that. Learn the process. Barbie will win song only.
No the voters always strongly backlash against the backlash, they are extremely allergic to populist campaigning that doesn't come from within the industry.
BS. Who are you lying, yourself? The movie is full of symbolism, it is about the whole history of the studio, why you think people have to care about the entire studio, the childhood of the director or metaphors about the fall of the Imperialisms of Japan to understand a movie? I do, but unlike you, I get why most people found the movie incomprehensible. And even the greatest fans of the movie, cannot explain why the father had to fuck the aunt while the cadaver of the mother was still worm?! And why the Boy had to accept the aunt as his adoptive mother when what she and the father did was WRONG on all possible levels?
I think Maestro is winning that. It beat Poor Things at the Makeup and Hairstylist Guild. Not to mention Maestro has prosthetic makeup that the Academy adores.
It's 100% just a film twitter thing lol, just Like Melton being "win-competitive" Barbie's very slim chances of more than 1 win now only lie Below the Line
sorry but Spider-verse is too nerdy for awards voters in a year where Miyazaki had his last movie (and its regarded as one of Miyazaki's best among people who like cinema for adults)
you forgot Killers Of The Flower Moon and Martin Scorsese for you we should not reward this film I have the impression that people no longer want to see arthouse films it's selfish
I agree. I was annoyed when The Mitchells vs. the Machines lost the Oscar when I watched the Oscars. That film had similar theming about the importance of family like Encanto, but I think The Mitchells vs. the Machines has handled that message better.
ه I expect all category winers. But i dont like theatre of the cermony.🎭🎪 I prefer (opraha house ) theatre..as always. Becase was sooo big and classic Make the show sooo prestigious.💻 Theatre of this year small and modern. I expect... The suporting actor Will be for robert downy j. And he win. And best actor Btween cillin morphy and bradly cooper And marphy win. And i expect best actross Btween sandra huller and emma stone And emma stone win. And i expexct the award of screenplay will go to Anatomy of intrest. But i dont expect Amrican fiction will take best screenplay in bafta. Was surprise. I was think will take it Oppenhimer. I was expecting The zone of intrest will win. And poor thing as british story and oppenhimer as political story about euorpian war sweep. And i was expecting Emelly blant will win in bafta But victory of her again in bafta... soooo big. All love heeer. I like davine joy randolf But i dont think she will win. Same paul jiamatii i was think he will lose And he lose in the end. Espesialy win give them best casting. Davine was not confdent in bafta...she was think will lose And when emely blant lose Feel disappointment And cry later in death sencse. I love davine joy randolf Dress Soooo classic and drama.. Good for cermony. I dont like emma stone dress She wear good dress but not suit to awards seasion Sooo simble In oscar i hope see emaa stone wear amazing dress. Year of sweep. In best actross and supporting actross and supporting actross and diroctor. Emely blant maybe take sag Even if davine joy take bafta. If that not happend in bafta. And how if emely blant and sandra huller win oscar. Without any wining before. Espeily sandra huller. Who win oscar when he lose all seasion awards.
I do feel like there is a slight preference, tho they also like Irish/Australians. Tho if you think abt it the american actors who won have a few british ties. Emma Stone was playing a brit, in a british film. Also played a brit in The Favourite. Robert Downey Jr had played Sherlock (famous brit) is also associated with a lot of brits like Tom Holland etc. In his acceptance speech he mentioned his british connections. In Oppenheimer he acted opposite british and irish leads (cillian and and Emily) under british director (nolan) Cillian Murphy is Irish, preference already bc he is from the british Isles (which includes uk and Ireland). He does a lot of his work in the UK. Divine Joy Randolph in her acceptance speech said that her first acting job was in London, and getting a bafta was a full circle moment.
@@alliona502 So more than 10K voters knew that Divine first job was in London or they cared about the forgotten role of Downey as Sherlock?! Give a break. And if you read a little bit of history, you will see that being Irish is not an advantage.
