Who is more likely to win the Presidential Election as of today? Comment below and don't forget to subscribe! Subscribe to my free newsletter: davidlinreport.substack.com/
Trump and the MAGA theocracy is more hated now than ever. The country is VERY divided. Women aren’t as vocal as men about what they do in the ballot box. No one knows.
lol he always put an asterisk on that prediction. And also in 2000 when gore won the pv but lost the election he claimed the mode predicted the popular vote up until after 2016 then he switched his tune😂
Here in Australia tonight, 4 hrs ago on the most reputable and reliable news source in the country was a world economic report. That report included that prices in the USA have begun to go down. Fact.
To everyone saying he is biased… he is very honest about his opinions but his opinion doesnt affect his analysis. He has predicted about the same number of republicans as he has democrats… including trump in 2016. He looks at the facts.
This man is a professor. A big-time scholar of data, statistics, and political history for over 40 years. He knew what he's talking about, and he is so sure of the consequences that may follow if his prediction turned out to be inaccurate. I have no obligation to oppose his intellectual work with my political adherence and emotions. He's got the data and figures to back his work up. I have none, just like many of us here.
He's human so he has a personal preference just like you do.is He and his analysis tool to predict the winner of the US Presidential election are world famous. It's a prediction tool. It has nothing to do with his personal preference.
@@WolePaul-lv7wt I’m 62 and I have been following politics in Australia, The UK and USA since I was 8…. I told have any voodoo keys at my disposal just political nous, historical results and been able to read the room as they say…. Over those years my success in predicting results has been pretty good I can report… Especially good in last 20 years through age I imagine… I have to say the only one I got wrong was 2020 when DJT coup took place… Didn’t factor in the lefts cheating factor… With all my simple experience (not a loop professor) I can tell you…. Donald J Trump, GOP House and GOP Senate will be in landslide victory 2024!! Liberal Flake 😢🤪 Book you room in the wilderness
This isn't about who he prefers. He's showing you the keys using a scientific METHOD that's NOT biased. You people are mad claiming he is biased, but science is not biased. He also predicted Trump win in 2016 but you won't claim bias about that
@@AmerikiDorkThat’s a fact-based assertion, not his opinion. You can’t call someone biased when he can demonstrate objectively that Trump lied every minute.
@@FeelingPeculiar Trump misleadingly claimed that he was “the one that got the insulin down for the seniors,” not Biden. Lie. Trump warned that Biden “wants to raise your taxes by four times,” but Biden has not proposed anything like that. Lie. Trump repeated his false claim that “everybody,” including all legal scholars, wanted to end Roe v. Wade’s constitutional right to abortion. Lie. Trump falsely claimed that “some states” run by Democrats allow abortions “after birth.” If it happened, it would be homicide, and that’s illegal. Lies and lies…
@@AmerikiDork that's not about bias. That's a fact. If Trump says the sky is orange and the professor says that's clearly a lie, it's not bias to call Trump out on it. It's simply the truth. When data and empirical evidence shows you are lying, it simply is what it is
The guy is just talking historical facts on both parties, literally hasn't changed his method in 40 years that are based on 160 years of historical politics, hasn't gotten a prediction wrong yet if you factor his 2000 prediction was proven correct, yet so many hurt feelings in the comments about the idea that their candidate won't win and assume this guy is biased.
But he didn’t predict an assassination attempt and an iconic picture with a raised fist in front of an American flag that would put Trump ahead in every swing state.
His 2000 prediction was WRONG. Also he's biased af, he's still whining about getting 2000 wrong and he's an obnoxious anti-Trumper who hasn't even been correctly applying his own system to this election because he's so terrified of thinking Trump will win again. Case in point, he actually thinks Biden has 2 of the keys for his "good" economy. That's how frickin' delusional this guy is.
Because lichtmann has forgot more than the rest of these idiots know. I like how the ignorant always call the brilliant dumb or “lacking credibility .” Phonies are always nervous around rhetoric real thing!”
Because lichtmann has forgot more than the rest of these idiots know. I like how the ignorant always call the brilliant dumb or “lacking credibility .” Phonies are always nervous around rhetoric real thing!”
Yes, professor Lichtman is an avowed democrat; while you can disagree with his politics, his system has accurately presicted almost every election result since the early 80s. That's an impressive track record.
Lichtman is a registered Democrat. Crooks is a registered Republican. Why is Lichtmann getting shit for being a Dem while Crooks is okay and secretly a RINO? Magats rational thought processes must look like an AI video. There's a reason Trump was so proud about the amount of uneducated people under his reign.
@@Therealam20zThe one exception is 2000, which was so close that the Supreme Court was easily able to sway it in Bush’s favour. And even then, nine out of ten correct predictions is a pretty impressive track record
We love this guy,” Trump said of Hannity. “He says, ‘You’re not going to be a dictator, are you?’ I said: ‘No, no, no, other than day one. We’re closing the border, and we’re drilling, drilling, drilling. After that, I’m not a dictator.’”
@@fatumataholloway4897 After Weekend at Joes disaster 4 years, USA are lucky to have a county… What an absolute cluster F President Joe and his giggle box side kick… Bring on Trump 2024 . The world will be a safer place as will 🇺🇸
The fix is in. This guy predicted Trump would be impeached and should be BEFORE he was even elected. That shows bias and information he shouldn't know by any "scientific" bs key.
Literally people assuming he's biased because he's talking objective measures of his predictive modeling that are leaning Biden. Any shred of an idea that Trump won't be reelected has his supporters up in arms. Can't wait to hear another year of "stolen election" BS again...
Gullible? Did you buy Lichtman's claim that polls were no good, or did you actually check the history to see if he was correct? The people who think this guy is some sort of sage need to look at the numbers. Lictman kept repeating that polls are no good. If David Lin (and his audience) had done their homework and checked all the elections from 1980 to 2020 they would have seen that the presidential elections August polls (that is when Lichtman comes out with his final call) were correct 9 times out of 11 (I counted 2000 as wrong but if you do not want to then the polls were correct 10/11); Lichtman was correct 9 times out of 10. So Litchman was at best 10% better than the (aggregate) polls. Lichtman called 2016 right when the aggregate polls did not and that is the only difference between Lichtman and the polls. From this data who would say that polls are no good and Litchman is a wizard? The source for the August polls data is Wikipedia (Polling_for_United_States_presidential_elections). Look it up.
Trump's vice presidential candidate Vance said women shouldn't be able to get divorced even if they are being abused! That is terrifying! He hates women! You can look it up online because he said it on video! How can any woman vote for that? How can any man who actually loves a woman vote for that?@IFYOUWANTITGOGETIT
Agreed. David Lin did what he was supposed to do as an interviewer - challenge Lictman. Lichtman should have welcomed these challenges as a chance to provide more proof; instead he was condescending. I watched the interview and while the key methodology all by itself is not biased you can still enter biased data. As a trader I use trading models all the time and have seen models with perfect success rates fail. How does this happen? One possibility is to enter garbage data. Here is an example: At one point Lichtman claimed Biden created more jobs than any other president in history. He seemed to forget that people were laid off due to Covid and many of these jobs were people returning to suspended jobs, not a creation of new jobs. It is a perfect example of how people use statistics to lie. If Lichtman had any humility he might consider that the pandemic was a one off event that his models never had to handle. Here again I saw many trading models (some with 20/20 successes) with better accuracy than Lictman’s (9/10) model falter after an unprecedented event.
OOPS WRONG Professor forgets to bring up that they brought this whole case up on a charge that was expired under the statute of limitations and the judge withheld the crime from the jury.
In my opinion His “keys” are no longer valid because times have changed. His analysis was based on a pattern that no longer exists. Compare todays political climate now vs pre-covid and all the way to let’s say Carter. Things are different. People are angry and more informed. The Alt media has sky rocketed while main media going downhill. There is an awakening today that was non existent 10-20-30 years ago. History goes through waxes and wanes and me thinks so should his analysis be updated for current trends.
@vijjready, you misunderstand. Go to North Korea, and you'll find all news and all broadcasts in all media is only what Kim Jong Un wants, truth reality, facts not necessary. It happened in Russia when it was locked up and there was no other source but the dictatorial communist party. In countries where there are Dictators journalistscare jailed or killed if they don't say only what they're told to say.
@@andrewthacker114 Umm… well cuz HUGE “strong man” diaper baby, “cried” and said, he wouldn’t allow the debate to happen, IF he was FACT checked. Hmm… Geez I wonder why. Duh! And CNN only cared more about their RATINGS and MONEY, than us 🇺🇸 needing to hear from the 2 candidates on their views, policies, and future for 🇺🇸! But NOPE, It was a 90 min LYING fest, from Drumpf. NOT a debate. Biden better not do another debate, with the lying diaper baby. Cuz it does nothing for 🇺🇸. It only gives Drumpf FREE airtime to LIE his butt off. And HE already has his rallies for that. 😡
Sounds like he's saying or coming close to saying his model is infallible. That's not scientific and science only can give probabilities. His model has never been wrong? Can't certain Black Swan events like a major war or an attempt on a Presidential candidate like yesterday have a big effect on the outcome of a Presidential election?
Why the analysis tool he calls The 13 Keys" aren't affected by events like that. I was thinking the same, that it might have affected the outcome but now I understand why it won't.
he said ,, i will be a dictator for 1 day .........only to close the border.......... but everyone keep saying he said he would be a dictator starting on day 1. just sayimg , i saw the interview.
But this guy nos what he talking about and Trump so hated somebody tried to get him at his own rally and I hope this guy will come back on even if you so rude to him cause its a breth of fresh air to have somebody unbiased on here
It's always nice to see the method to the idea I love this mans desciption and way he establishes the rules You must all vote though. Democracy can't prevail if people get comfortable and don't vote. 'My vote won't matter' is pointless. It means more than you can know So jump in and vote. Here's hoping his prediction remains the same and we can see 4 more years
How is he biased? He literally called Trump back in 2016 when EVERYONE had Hillary as the winner, and explained his rubic and standards clearly. Come off of it.
He hasn't made a prediction yet. He may predict Trump. If the Dem Convention goes divisive, if Biden adds fuel to the conflict in Israel ... there are still if's to his predictive model.
His method works like Math. 2+2 = 4. He can still have his own personal preference and he can still vote for whoever he wants. You know, it's called freedom.
@PrincessGold1 I agree. It's still possible for personal bias to influence qualitative analysis. The best forecasters are the best at reducing this bias. TDS is a very real phenomenon 2024
Where do you see obvious bias? Because he says something you don't want to hear? He also predicted the GOP would win in 2016. But I just noticed you use "TDS" unironically, so I guess you aren't arguing in good faith.
This man couldn't even hide his bias for ten minutes. Didn't even bother watching the rest of the video. Never heard of him before and won't remember him come tomorrow.
Well, in 2016, he predicted a Trump victory, however, he did not support Trump. His predictions are not based on whom he would like to win - they are based on the candidates' contest for the Keys. Donald Trump, as things currently stand, is losing the 2024 Keys to the White House.
Trump is not a damn felon... you wish it were true, but anyone of any intellect knows what the trump trials were all about... that is why it doesn't phase the public at all... they all see the corruption!
Agreed on both of your points - not a voter for Trump, this guy is blinded by his own bias. I watched the interview and can say some of the keys are subjective and when you are as biased against Trump as this guy is you can score the subjective keys incorrectly. As a trader I use trading models all the time and appreciate that Lictman uses one (with a 9 out of 10 success rate). However, even a proven model can fail if you enter garbage data. Here is an example: At one point Lichtman claimed Biden created more jobs than any other president in history. He seemed to forget that people were laid off due to Covid and many of these jobs were people returning to suspended jobs, not a creation of new jobs. It is a perfect example of how people use statistics to lie. If Lichtman had any humility he might consider that the pandemic was a one off event that his models never had to handle. Here again I saw many trading models (some with 20/20 successes) with better accuracy than Lictman’s (9/10) model falter after an unprecedented event. Finally, Lichtman and some of his fans on this site seem to take issue with David Lin challenging him. This is what you are suppose to do if applying the “scientific method”. Lichtman should have welcomed these challenges as a chance to provide more proof; instead he was condescending. The people who think this guy is some sort of sage need to look at the numbers. Lictman kept repeating that polls are no good. If David Lin (and his audience) had done their homework and checked all the elections from 1980 to 2020 they would have seen that the presidential elections August polls (that is when Lichtman comes out with his final call) were correct 9 times out of 11 (I counted 2000 as wrong but if you do not want to then the polls were correct 10/11); Lichtman was correct 9 times out of 10. So Litchman was at best 10% better than the (aggregate) polls. Lichtman called 2016 right when the aggregate polls did not and that is the only difference between Lichtman and the polls. From this data who would say that polls are no good and Litchman is a wizard? The source for the August polls data is Wikipedia (Polling_for_United_States_presidential_elections). Look it up.
@@christopherl4249 Thank you for your detailed and insightful analysis. Yes, I was quite aghast at the level of bias he was showing and my response was more a gut response........'this is not adding up'
@@santoshrathod123 Exactly, at a time when ALL the "prevailing wisdom" contradicted his prediction, it's amazing that he could uniquely decipher the writing on the wall, while others could not.
I hope so. He has my vote again if he stays in the race. The constant criticism must be hard to take. I wouldn't be surprised if he does quit the race, but I hope he stays in and proves them all wrong.
Everyone's biased for their own beliefs. That's his work though, which is analysis, which is the world's most accurate method of predicting who will win.
He's biased because he's educated? He predicted Trump's win. But everyone reading knows you aren't going to respond. Living in your own little fantasy land.
Translation: "I don't like what this guy is saying so I'll call him biased and throw out a laughing emoji so I won't have to take in what he's saying". Cope harder.
Re Trump, the media has been complicit since the 2016 election when - even when pointed out by and complained about by his fellow Republican candidates on the debate stage - Trump was allotted too much attention at their expense.
CBS and CNN has purchased by two right wing oligarchies (John C.Malone and Son of Larry Elison ) .They are now biased right-wing propaganda like Fox News.
@@marioisawesome8218 lol because I don’t want to be emotionally and ideologically exploited!! I regularly expose myself to diverse perspectives and engage in open, respectful dialogue with people who hold different viewpoints. I also make it a point to seek out and critically evaluate a range of information sources to ensure I have a well-rounded understanding of various issues.
Tbf 1876 should have gone to the Dems and 2000 as well. Still, an 97.5% accuracy rate is pretty good, almost like weather forecasting. He hasn’t been afraid to be ballsy as well. He predicted Reagan in May 1982, Bush in April 2003, Bush in May 1988, and Obama in July 2010.
If you compare the 1980s to current which is more appropriate because Lichtman was not predicting anything before 1980 and (over time with technology and experience polls accuracy did improve) he is only a little better than the polls. From 1980 to 2020 they would have seen that the presidential elections August polls (that is when Lichtman comes out with his final call) were correct 9 times out of 11 (I counted 2000 as wrong but if you do not want to then the polls were correct 10/11); Lichtman was correct 9 times out of 10. So Litchman was at best 10% better than the (aggregate) polls. Lichtman called 2016 right when the aggregate polls did not, and that is the only difference between Lichtman and the polls. From this data who would say that polls are no good and Litchman is a wizard? The source for the August polls data is Wikipedia (Polling_for_United_States_presidential_elections). Look it up.
He will not announce winner until LATE August. Dems gave not decided who they are going to nominate yet you sill comnenters!.. think about it before yoy criticize.
@@leroyjones6170 You can't "win" a debate--nor even participate in it--when you DEMAND there not be a fact-checker present and then lie every single sentence. Cope that people realize Biden won because he wasn't hot-air.
He did not predict 2000 or 2016 correctly. He excuses those by saying the wrong man won. Whaaaa??? So no matter what he predicts he claims to be correct.
This guy doesn't just stink of bias, he reeks of it. I couldn't continue beyond 10 minutes, that was more than enough. Please do not invite him back. Ever!
That was definitely an extraordinary interview! The part i loved the most is when you let him answer and not interrupt! So many interviewers make that mistake and interrupt train of thought.! I'M so impressed because I see your a young man.And if you keep your style with you, You're going to go amazingly far!
It is maddening how much attention and time the media gives to Trump. If they would have ignored him since he lies so much, it would have helped squelch him out.
What a shame you don’t cover Biden’s lies during the debate. Of course that was just the time we could actually understand his mumbles. This guy is so biased it’s unbelievable.
He predicted Trump win in 2016. I think he has just been agitated lately with everyone criticizing his system which he has been right about for 10 elections straight
So something SO unprecedented like stormy Daniel’s can influence trump in the key performance….But something so unprecedented like Bidens Gereatricism which we’ve never seen can’t 💭
The Professor comes across a tad bit arrogant. I hope his 13 keys are wrong for this election so that maybe he might be a little more humbler in the future. The 13 keys were wrong in 2000, so it is possible they could be wrong in 2024.
The people who think this guy is some sort of sage need to look at the numbers. Lictman kept repeating that polls are no good. If David Lin (and his audience) had done their homework and checked all the elections from 1980 to 2020 they would have seen that the presidential elections August polls (that is when Lichtman comes out with his final call) were correct 9 times out of 11 (I counted 2000 as wrong but if you do not want to then the polls were correct 10/11); Lichtman was correct 9 times out of 10. So Litchman was at best 10% better than the (aggregate) polls. Lichtman called 2016 right when the aggregate polls did not, and that is the only difference between Lichtman and the polls. From this data who would say that polls are no good and Litchman is a wizard? The source for the August polls data is Wikipedia (Polling_for_United_States_presidential_elections). Look it up.
Lol not really considering his track record of being correct. He's a Democrat but his views don't affect his predictions because they're based on fixed criteria hence why he predicted 2016 for trump
No, he didn't. He remained consistent all the way thtough. His criteris are based on the entire history of Presidential elections ie on nearly 200 yrs of historical fact.
Professor I appreciate your work. I am trying to find if there is a poll asking "No matter who is the Democratic presidential candidate, will you vote Democrat?" Although I was never like this before, at this moment in history my cat could at the top of the ticket and without any questions asked, I am voting the Democratic ballet. I would like to understand how many are in that camp.
I know this guy could technically just have gotten lucky over and over -- with so many people casting predictions, eventually someone comes along who gets 10 out of 10 correct -- but his reasoning seems sound enough and I welcome any bit of hope I can get now.
The odds of someone getting 10/10 coin flips correctly are 1/1024 or 0.1%. So either he’s really lucky or this model has something. Even if you are pessimistic about the model since it technically got 1876, 1888, and 2000 wrong, it being 38/41 or 92.6% correct is still pretty good. Better than pollsters that for sure lol.
Stalin was talking about what he did and what Putin does today follows that as well. It is not ehat happens in the USA no matter how many times Trump lies about it.
@@pamdemic7848 Why didn’t Trump control the voting machines when he was President? 🤔 Strange even when he’s the most powerful person in the world he’s somehow still the victim.
