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I live in Amish country, its fascinating to be driving a Tesla on the same roads as horse and buggies. Cant wait to see what they think of my Cybertruck.
The adoption of Uber and Lyft happened so quickly in its first few years that proves that any improvement to the cost or convenience for transportation will be quickly utilized. I’m confident that after a few years when it launches, Robotaxi will be so mainstream and a common utility that it will be no different than taking a subway, bus or an elevator to work.
I share your enthusiasm, but there's a difference. It will be far different from bus, elevator, or subway. The value of *n* will be much worse when *n* loud clothes or *n* number of farts are counted, observed, or inhaled.
Also many families have one car because they cannot afford two. Imagine the utulity of a Tesla for these families who can now share the car during the day.
I don't think that is going to happen. This is going to turn into Turo. Handful of people with a dozen cars in their mini fleet. Then the market will saturate and no one makes anything.
@@darylfoster7944I think he's referring to the retail owners. Less and less opportunities for us to make money because tesla will have their own fleet and businesses as well. That's where the 8t will come from.
If the market is saturated, either by Tesla's own cars, or a bunch of mini fleets, then the question is, how low does the price per mile go? In the past, ARK claimed that the price could drop to $.25/mile. At that price, I don't think anyone could make money.
I’m trying to model a plan to buy(finance) or lease a model 3 to rent out- a 2? Or 3 year plan to see if I can make any money. No emotional attachment to the car- just a possible way to earn enough to pay for my Cybertruck.
@@saracowgill2144 Me too. If it seems at all feasible I will simply buy a second car, already have a Y, and turn it into a perma-taxi. If it is lucrative I will get another. Musk seemed to think that the idea of privately owned fleets was ridiculous in an interview, I wonder if they are going to include any kind of limits.
There are currently about 1 million taxi's in the USA and 3 million tesla's. If too many tesla's become robo taxi's, that market will be drastically diluted.
I just had a thought about FSD. It imagine years down the road everybody's on FSD and FSD actually communicates with other FSD. Think about that there's an accident in the left lane All the FSD are communicating with each other You need to be in the right lane. There's construction in the right lane All the FSD is communicating with each other everybody getting the left lane. Lol imagine how much faster the traffic will flow if FSD communicates with each other! I think this will be a reality in the future and one of the major benefits. Thank you 👍
In Chicago, Il. people are getting killed for their cars when they are robbed. The criminals then use their cars for other crimes. I could definitely see people in the city giving up their cars for robotaxi. It will be safer and more efficient.
Can someone tell ARK or SMR (whoever it was) to turn their alert sound off when they are doing videos . Kept hearing this annoying ding sound every now and again and its the same as the one my work uses, so I kept looking for non existing messages listening to this.
Agree! However at $2/Mile, there will be "Early Users" checking it out! Just like in the Early Days of Commercial Flight! The Per Unit cost should improve over time! Today, Uber And Lyft, have a "Premium" and "Surge" rate Structure, that is higher than Average rates!
It needs to be $1/mile. If the average person drives 10k miles per year, that would be a cost of $10k. Compare that with the total cost of ownership, plus the hassle of driving, and I think people would consider giving up their car.
$2 a mile?? That's not a price range to change the world. To compete with the average Uber ride it has to be lower than $1.25 a mile (should be easy with no driver to pay). To take over transport from buses, less than 50c a mile (a job for the full-time robotaxis). So $5000-$10,000 revenue is more realistic for your ultra-part-time example... minus expenses. Sure that could help with paying for it. But don't over-sell the idea. Be realistic.
I’m looking at teslas renting for 400$+! Per day. I can’t figure out Tesla insurance if I’m renting it out and leasing- eek There’s a handful of fees for the start/ huge jumps between models. Just not sure what the year round market is in my area.
This will work in remote locations where fleets do not want to operate. I live where there is little taxi service, and none at night. People in these locations would be prepared to pay a higher $ rate per mile as well and run their own car as a robotaxi. I would suspect Tesla would include insurance while the car was operating as robotaxi, the rest of the time, your own insurance would operate.
he won’t reply to that he ignores any any criticism except to lampoon when he started doing that and ignoring any feedback in comments he moving to the tin man group he happens to be selling the best tin in the world but tin man he is he will not say a negative thing about any situation related to tesla that not enthusiasm that’s being high he also happens to be correct in the case of tesla but if he ran his own business with this level of never be wrong rather than be less wrong he would not do to well soo. salesman is still a good job it pays well
@@ChasEvans-s3u I didn't think you could take Uber for $1/mile. In any case, your $1 estimate for robotaxi seems realistic. When people take Uber, it's mostly when they're out of town. Robotaxi has to compete with vehicle ownership. If you could use robotaxi at a cost of $10k/year, that should tempt people to give up their car. When you add up car payment, insurance, maintenance, either gas or charging, possibly parking, and of course the hassle of driving, $10k seems like a pretty good value.
Re the charging - I think initially they will say you can have your car stay within maybe 10 miles of your house and it must be returned with say 25% battery remaining. Easy!
Steven, what are your thoughts on the Verne robotaxi announcement from Rimac? It seems they’ve been working in stealth mode for years. Are they announcing now because they’re close to launch or just to generate some publicity?
What a brilliant idea! I'm in! 🇨🇦 Can you imagine a company supplying its staff with company cars that sit in the parking lot from 9 to 5 five days a week. Using those cars as an additional source of income! OMG! And do not forget Tesla has induction charging in their stable of products.
Hopefully there will be a fare differential if rider request more than a 2 seat taxi. If a rider requests a four seat there should be a higher fare. If a rider gets a four seat by chance because a two seat isn't available the rider should paid the two seat fare.
They will have multiple vehicles and some they will happily donate to the fleet when it suits them. Just because you make a lot of money, doesn’t mean you don’t have money problems.
Caveat: Watch a couple of Stauffers' Garage RU-vid videos showing the "before" interior condition of vehicles he details. Personal belongings and trash (not to mention contraband) will have to be removed from these vehicles before they can be used as robotaxis. Also there will have to be some sort of periodic validation of the condition of the vehicles. Many roadblocks here. Interesting futures.
Indeed. Cathie wants fresh and open minded analysts, who are also specialized, unlike the generalists, such as, Adam Jonas Brothers. Also, what's with Dan Ives office in the basement?
I have a 2 acre piece of land in a business park in a low cost county about 40 miles from a major US city downtown area. It is right next to my industrial business building but I could definitely see building it out with a steel building and a clean/wash station with indoor dedicated charging for the vehicles. Pretty interesting.
I hope we see more on logistic like cleaning, charging, repair etc. on robotaxyday. Maybe Wireless charging? Do you think there will be special service center like rimac just presented?
Guarantee of transportation and repair of vehicle if an accident would occur, insurance with no deductible covered by Tesla during RoboTaxi operation, instant replacement vehicle while out of service for robotaxi usage and personal transportation. This is the model to incentivize Tesla owners to join the network.
@zoransarin5411 self driving doesn't work that way. Its not possible. How many more years will it take you to realize that? You do know musk is a fraud right?
Watching these young people talk about how they can't see people giving up their cars, completely missing that the kids of today will never be like them. They will grow up with robotaxis, never knowing of a time before. They will NEVER learn to drive, so they will never get attached to owning a car. They will be lost to the car market FOREVER. There time horizons are WAY too short.
Price will be lowered until it becomes a 5 year or so payback time, or whatever the price will be where you earn some 10-15 % compared to the cost of the vehicle over the duration of the vehicle's lifetime.
My E-Niro costs about 400 per month and I drive to work (20 miles there and back, about 400 miles per month), so when robotaxi costs less than 1$ per mile i will no longer keep that car 🎉 Looking fwd to that day 😊
In my country, estern Europe, the price for taxis and ubers is $0.8/mile, and also you pay $0.12 /minute of driving (as we have heavy traffic). If tesla could provide such prices, without the dynamic 2x at rush hour, it would be pretty good. I see margins being lower here, as uber is crazy expensive in the west, but there is a lot of potential, even here if they would go for $0.5/mile no other fees. And is likely possible as the prices above stated Uber takes a fee, the drivers takes care of his car, gas and repairs and has also a salary (not huge, if the driver works enough he make $1000/month)
the final winner(s) is players who not only make truly full self driving but also who can survive in a long run with its own economics. profitable at scale is the key
You need to also include depreciation and taxes. When you do, the owner needs $0.50/mile to break even. Profitable at $2/mile charge but not a mountain of money
This will make every car owner a business owner. Business owners take advantage of section 179, and get around a 30% discount on their cars, via tax credits. Imagine buying a Cyberbeast for $62,500. You’ll get the 30% deduction, plus the commercial EV tax credit, which is not limited by vehicle price or income. But for it all to work, your business needs to earn around $15k to $20k per year. Smaller cars might get away with $8k to $10k, for it to work.
Are you considering the business as a secondary income? $15-20k is nothing. Also, not everyone will rent out their car, just as not every vacation home is rented.
@@darylfoster7944those that don’t rent it won’t be a business. No, $15,000 per year is not a huge amount of money. But if it’s passive because you don’t have to do anything except allow your car to work while you’re not using it. That works for some, that seems their car as a tool. Others see it as some personal extension of themselves. They couldn’t want to rent. If you do rent, then it’s a business that generates income. In this case you qualify for the IRS section 179 deduction. This is 100% full depreciation of your vehicle, either upfront or spread over a specific time. So if you buy a $100,000 vehicle, you can get $30,000 to $40,000 discounted from your taxes. You would also qualify for the commercial EV tax credit. This is $7500 just like the regular ev tax credit, but there is no limit to the price if the EV, and there are no income limits. If that doesn’t work for you, and you don’t like discounts, and you have your identity tied to your personal belongings, then none of this matters. Most people like discounts and passive income. So it will work for them.
I have yet to see someone do a bottom-up solid cost estimate for Tesla operating their own vehicles and others' vehicles. I am specifically interested in costs for insurance, cleaning/tidying, charging logistics. Yes, Tesla has their own insurance, but what would be the cost?
The conversation around who’s going to hang onto their personal vehicles seems to be overlooking what is probably the biggest constituent group, families. Whether you’re schlepping diaper bags and strollers for the younger crowd or hockey equipment and other paraphernalia when they get older, a lot of families use their vehicles as a rolling storage locker. Plus kids need different size car seats, depending on their age. Moving all of that stuff in and out of different Robotaxis makes very little sense. That said, I could easily foresee a family’s car seat equipped model X for example, being loaned out as a Robo taxi during peak family tourist season, such as the cherry blossom season here in Washington DC.
An interesting thing about Nick’s funny post about Ark’s investment thesis is that everyone will not get rich from using each other’s cars. However, as more money flows into robo taxi usage, less (much less) money will flow into current ways of personal transportation. So, the post points out a shift in who will profit from future transportation.
Don't forget to factor in the increased insurance costs due to increased mileage., more tire wear and more exposure to weather and road conditions which has an impact on maintenance. Yes, I know Tesla has insurance but I found bundling with my home insurance is less expensive.
Some people will always need to have a vehicle, like people who live far out in rural areas, farmers, etc. But most people don’t live in those areas. Kids these days are waiting longer and longer to get their drivers licenses. They’re not interested in driving. It’ll only be a generation from now that no one will ever want a car - except for the wealthy and enthusiasts.
If it were truly a good idea to buy used Hertz Teslas that have been heavily used, abused, and crashed, then Tesla would have repurchased these rental EVs for their fleet. And that ain’t happening.
@@tomdrewenskus8167 Tesla is in the business of making and selling new cars. Why would they have any interested in buying Hertz’s used fleet? Better that these go to the less affluent end of the private market. This would better serve the mission of getting as many people into sustainable transport as possible (“accelerate the transition to sustainable energy”).
Insurance? Have you Steven, or has Ark, added to their calculations the increased cost of insurance that will result from the increased mileage of a consumer car that is made available to the Robotaxi fleet?
Love your channel, Bought Tesla stock below $100 a share because of your information. I question the ability to produce 100 million battery pack for the new cars as in the prediction and additional packs needed for current Tesla owners. How are they gonna handle that???
The fact is to produce that many packs is unbelievable. First things that come to my mind are resources, energy, labor, economic conditions. Man that’s a a big statement. 100 million damn how is that possible to even put into perspective
Your chart of Tesla really reminds me of the GE chart since IPO…by the way I think it is time You update the chart on Your mugs, just in order to adjust it to reality!
Home charging paid to home owner that shares wireless home charging to 3rd party at regular Tesla charging rates (usually 3x homeowner rates), for trickle charging robotaxi while waiting for next ride. Incentive for home owner that has 24hr ez access (drive way) wireless charging for robotaxi
The disbelief around FSD when it's happening right in front of the eyes of anyone willing to look is astounding and makes it easy to keep buying while all other AI related stocks, that have no moat to capture value from end users, hit all time highs.
Many good points, I'm paying $2 per mile is not sustainable. People operate ice vehicles for under $0.60 a mile. People are not going to pay $2 for all their driving.
@@royphillips7644 How do you calculate the cost per mile to drive? It obviously depends on your car, it's expense and expected life, and gas mileage. But realistically the cost (including amortization of purchase price and repairs etc) is between 50 to 65 cents a mile.
Uber costs $2/mile, and virtually nobody would consider using it as their sole means of transportation. It needs to be $.75-1.00 to be cost competitive with ownership.
2 a mile is too high to charge. Uber is charging roughly $1.75 a mile. Uber doesn’t pay to go to pickup someone. You only get paid for the miles with a person in your vehicle. So Tesla will have to be below $1.50 for people to choose them over Uber. It would be more like a 5 year payback time period but that’s still not bad.
i understand all this and will be putting my TSLA on the network. But no one has addressed, who is going to cover the insurance for ppl putting their TSLAs on the robotaxi network??
I like the idea of Tesla borrowing my vehicle in a la la land. I have not heard anything about regulations regarding this concept of my vehicle driving away to work for me😂 good idea. I think these young investors need to triple check this concept
What’s Off ? For the moment this remains a SOFT catalyst : good to know but doesn’t move the EPS needle projection . The HARD catalyst will be a Delivery Date and Unit Economics . Even then any Excel forecast will be discounted back at stupid rates such that when revenue DOES appear they only have 1 parameter to change. imo 😊
this is what you do... you lease one for 3 years. You sign the papers today, you're committed to paying for the lease. But you add it to the pool of robotaxis. Since it's a lease car you don't care that much about it being used by others. And now you've wet your beak. You can see how it works out. This is the minimal concept of how you can be a part of this. You still have the car for your personal use like usual. LoL this idea was actually novel for 5 minutes yesterday but now hopefully it's become obvious. Concerns about not wanting your personal car publicly used is not really a barrier... and you can phase out your old ways over time.
I would never sign up my personal vehicle and make it the village bicycle. That's my personal space. I don't want some stranger's swamp a$$ sullying my seats. Also keep in mind that most people are dirtbags when they're not in their own vehicle - because they just don't care. I'll keep my car sitting that's fine. But would I buy one and have it working 24/7 and put money on the table??? Yes I would that is an amazing proposition from Tesla.
Many people are dirtbags even when they're in their own car. I've ridden in cars that looked like a landfill. When they ride in your rental, you're going to have to clean up after them daily.
16:25 Steven that is only if they don't have to go and get the client and have a client 100% of the time 10k miles is not $20k. Not even close. Thanks 🤔
I have a 23 model 3 and my wife is a housewife so the car is in the garage 99% of the time. My wife absolutely loves her car but if her car could be out there making money she would definitely say yes. I think it's kind of a no-brainer. I'm sure Tesla is going to have everyone on a credit card cameras inside the car if someone damages the car does something to the car They're going to be charged for it They're going to be held accountable. I think you're going to have to have something like this in place and if you do then a lot more people are going to get involved. Thank you
I get that Tesla robotaxi will initially be like a money printer but as more people take advantage of this "money printer" then surely, it will dilute the demand for it. Eventually it will reach an equilibrium where most people will not be making that much passive income each year. I certainly can't see the "money printer" being that lucrative over more than a year or two.
I can’t imagine leasing out my personal vehicle yet. Just the thought of what people deposit under tables in restaurants makes me shudder. I might buy one for the sole purpose of leasing it out, but it wouldn’t be my personal vehicle. Too much like my second home.
@@billpower835 Time will tell. When private transportation, that's not very different than in an owned car, costs 1/10 of what it does today, this could change drastically. On a daily basis ~13% of daily trips are done by means other than private cars. Since only ~50% of Americans have access to public transport, this would imply ~25% are fine with using alternate means, at times, when those are available - and that's without robo-taxis.
@@machoopichoo2 It's also a factor of population density and location. Go two hours north of Manhattan and good luck getting any rideshare service ever.
