Baseball Math Theory: The Revolutionary Analysis of the Value of Run Scoring and Prevention

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"A run saved is as good as a run scored" goes the saying. But is this really true? Today, I dive into the math behind how run scoring and run prevention impact a team's ability to win games... and come to some revolutionary conclusions.
Link to my work: docs.google.com/document/d/1Q...

Опубликовано:

11 апр 2023

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Комментарии : 21

@elimurphy-trotzky1231 Год назад

I think the idea is that offenses that earn more runs typically also increase the variance of the runs while decreased runs/runs allowed also decrease the variance. One important caveat is that there are different 'good' offensive strategies (obp focused vs power focused vs a balance of both) that may have the same average runs per game but can have different variances).

@benross9650 Год назад

I watched on 2x speed and I like the part where you say the Oakland Athletics are going to win the World Series in 2023

@ModernMozart1104 Год назад

llloooollll

@YourKidnies Год назад

Watched this on 2.69 speed, do you really think Julio Rodriguez is a one hit wonder and that we should give him a peak card in PT already?

@KeepinItFresh Год назад

Phenomenal video, man. I'm so glad I found your channel. I just learned so much right now. You have a gift in applying your mathematical prowess with your knowledge of the game to illuminate on some really cool, complex concepts. Boss.

@justinsharpe6607 Год назад

Thank you for all the hard work and great video

@m3m90815 8 месяцев назад

How did your analysis match the 2023 season team performances?

@goteambob517 Год назад

This was incredible. Really enjoyable to have facts proven about roster construction. Really in depth! Hope that it gains a lot of views!

@goteambob517 Год назад

Hey quick question for you, can this concept be applied to other sports? For example, in basketball roster construction, perhaps teams would want to build offensive teams when rebuilding to score more points, then add some defense to get over the hump? Hope this questions makes sense

@sgtmushroom Год назад

The math is going to be different for other sports, and I know very little about basketball, but I'll try my best to respond here. Let's take, for example, the Suns right now, a team projected to have one of the best starting offensive cores in the league, but a poor defense. A marginal improvement in defense would benefit the team significantly more than, say, a defensive oriented team that wouldn't be competitive this year. That said, I couldn't say whether strategically it holds up that defense is more valuable than offense for competitive teams, though you could potentially postulate it based on similar thinking to what I used here.

@goteambob517 Год назад

@@sgtmushroom okay I really appreciate the feedback!!! That makes sense

@EZBISME Год назад

To validate this, you now need to do a statistical correlation analysis of whether runs scored or runs allowed is more associated with winning.

@sgtmushroom Год назад

I'd consider doing this as a follow up.

@EZBISME Год назад

@@sgtmushroom I actually did that back in the mid-90s, but I looked at ERA and batting average, not runs scored and runs allowed. In the case of runs scored and allowed, I think a lot value is really in the standard deviation of run production and run prevention, since that results in a standard deviation or run difference. A lower standard deviation of run difference should allow a team to win more games when it has a positive run difference. After all, if you always win every game 5-4, you win every game. On the other hand, if you have a negative run difference (expected to lose), you will lose more games with a smaller standard deviation.

@bryan7748 Год назад

those are some very professional looking equations, did you study them while in college? or did you just teach yourself?

@sgtmushroom 7 месяцев назад

Apologies for the very late response. I learned these tools in high school, and the equations are just common baseball tools. The rest is me applying all of that to baseball in a way I found interesting.

@charlesdavis9217 Год назад

Cool video. Is there more than a semantic difference between run ‘prevented’ and run ‘saved’?

@sgtmushroom Год назад

Not in the way I used them in this video, at least.

@stephenweppner7433 Год назад

I love stats and Bill James is a pioneer but why this team stat and not the individual stats? This stat has a standard deviation of about plus or minus 4 wins which means that routinely a few teams will be off the prediction by 8-10 wins. For example the 2021 Seattle Mariners had a 90-72 record where the prediction (using an exponent of 2) is 75-87 (15 wins!). As @Ethan Baker stated below many factors play a role in determining a win. Again I appreciate the effort and I hope you continue but maybe give some error analysis. In fact since the Seattle Mariners bucked this stat in 2018 and 2021, maybe delve into how they did this.

@sgtmushroom Год назад

Hey, I appreciate the comment and absolutely agree that error and variability are a large part of baseball. However, I do think here that there is some misunderstandings about the purpose of this video. I wasn't necessarily trying to prove that the pythag record is an effective prediction model (where I do absolutely agree that teams can do some things to wiggle around their pythag record in terms of true win-loss talent, though I do think in cases that extreme luck or outliers are involved), and this video wasn't really intended to be about statistics at all. My goal here was to try to take a reasonably well accepted/established tool within the baseball world and use it as a general means to prove a point about roster construction. That said, it would definitely be interesting to examine this from a statistical standpoint in a future video and dive into the things you're talking about here.