Hello you savages. Get my free Reading List of 100 life-changing books here - chriswillx.com/books/ Here’s the timestamps: 00:00 What is Rational Optimism? 01:15 The Benefits of Stress for Innovation 11:04 Good News Takes a Lot of Time 14:51 Why Is Bad News More Memorable? 21:25 Progress Requires Pessimism & Optimism 28:55 Hiring the Greatest Leaders 35:30 What Do You Think is Productive But Isn’t? 41:58 Good Things Are Supposed to Be Hard 51:56 Most Competitive Advantages Die Out 59:21 Never Discount the Potential of New Technology 1:04:12 Why Success Looks Easier than it is 1:10:57 Incentives Are the Most Powerful Force in the World 1:16:20 Nothing is More Persuasive than What You Personally Experience 1:20:02 The Tension of a Long-Term Mindset 1:31:07 Why Humans Are Seduced by Complexity 1:34:32 Who Would You Be if You Were Born to Different Parents? 1:40:23 Why the Richest People in the World Are Divorced 1:47:20 Where to Find Morgan
Moses was first in history to record Pi near 1400 BC in the Wilderness Tabernacle blueprints. 330 Exodus 26:7 15 Exodus 26:9, 12 - 1 Exodus 26:13 makes π 314 Exodus 26:7-9, 12-13 The Tabernacle had 11 curtains, each 30 cubits long. So, all the curtains together were 11 x 30 = 330 cubits long. One of these 11 curtains was to be folded in half. A curtain 30 cubits long folded in half, it becomes 15 cubits long. So, the adjusted length is 330 - 15 = 315 cubits. The same folded curtain is supposed to have half a cubit of material hanging off at both ends of the Tabernacle. Since there are two ends, that adds up to 2 x 0.5 = 1 cubit. So the final adjusted length is 315 - 1 = 314 cubits. 3.14 = 314 circumstance/100 diameter ≈ π ratio, 100 cubit court per Exodus 27:9-18 ............................. π was rediscovered in 2015 by an engineer from Wisconsin. Geometry people will see this as circle-shaped. However, Josephus the Historian describes the traditional rectangle-shaped Tabernacle. These are two different shapes. Exodus 26:13 makes Pi
💪🏾🔥🔥... On my way to see the list and watch this... I know you're not into politics but the news Russia has now the capacity to put 2 nuclear bombs in the space and take the power grid down, plus some numbers and other shards of info that have been coming for about 2 years, is it viable to have a round table about it? And for once involve the non-violent resistance side into the mix... That's it. Thank you for all the previous pods and dedication on expanding ideas! Stay strong 🧠
I remember that from Lawrence of Arabia! Near the beginning he puts a match out with his bare finger or something. I loved that movie I should watch it again sometime
Simpler explanation. Bad news gets more attention because by definition it requires action to resolve. Good news is lest interesting because no action is required. Pretty sure you would naturally evolve to be more focused on bad news, to be anything else could lead to your death.
There is a lot of very misinformed examples in this episode e.g. invention of cars, suburbs etc.... Also, it should be noted that the upper and aristocratic classes in 1930's Germany almost wholesale did not like or want Hitler and the Nazi party in power. The system was mostly hijacked by the support from the youth and working classes. Many just ended up going along as to not end up in jails/camps and lose all that they had.
There are no laws in psychology, only theories. That’s what makes it a quote-on-quote soft science (as a psychology major about to graduate). If you ask me the distinction between soft science and hard science is just complexity, but that's me.
A law is just a set of repeatedly observed phenomenon in a scientific field of study as would appear to always be true - sometimes self evidenced. As in, despite rigorous theory & observation, contraindicatory data has not been observed. Laws are not permanent. They are just the best summary of observation we have. A good example is "bravery cannot be faked" - bravery is taking action despite fear - to falsely take the action despite the fear is still taking action despite the fear & is brave
Psychology can never be a science as much as psychology would like to claim in order to monetize it for insurance. The subject matter is human, constantly changing even after the experiment and during any interaction or experience. No experiment can truly be duplicated and hypothesis fasified
@@anthonypesola3294 you have no idea what a Law in science represents, you have no idea what you are talking about. The laws of thermodynamic will always be true given the same parameters no matter what. Your essay speaks from a true soft science person
Good talk. Good points. Just sad that Morgan Housel gets facts in his supporting examples SO VERY WRONG. (1) Sears was NOT just a clothings store that sold some washers & dryers. It was essentially the Amazon of its day. The Sears catalogue of 1890 contained over 530 pages of items. Everything from cloths to furniture, musical instruments, firearms. You could buy kit-houses that were delivered so you could build the house. Amazing! - They were actually MORE encompassing than Walmart. - They did NOT BUY Discover Card. They launched it themselves. (Though they did buy Dean Witter & Caldwell Banker). - They were bought by KMART in 2004. So, it wasn't the fact that "it all went to their head" that killed them. The new owners failed to keep Sears alive. - KMART also went from 2,486 stores globally in 1994 to 6 stores today. - KMART failed to invest in computer technology to manage their supply chain. They lost the edge to Walmart, Target & internet sales. - But primarily, their brand was a mess, they had a large data breach, were sued by Sega, Target and others.. So that analogy was a MESS.... (2) Henry Ford did NOT invent the car. (or "put all the pieces together").... Nicolas-Joseph Cugnot built the first steam-powered car in 1769. And Carl Benz (Mercedes Benz) put the first combustion engine car into FULL production in 1826. Henry Ford popularized the assembly line for manufacture. But it was actually invented by the meat-processing industry in the midwest. - People saw the car as a form of transportation NOT as a machine of war. It took 89 years for before it was eventually utilized in WWI for troop transport. Then the tank. (American had no mechanized force until the 1916 "Pursuit of Poncho Villa" when the first truck, a "GMC Model 15" was brought into service. (3) The internet did NOT come about "30 yrs ago". The first commercial ISPs showed up in 1989. But I was on the internet (dialup BBSs) in high school 1983(?)- (I'm not a Boomer. I am Gen X). I was also given a Mac laptop when I worked for Adobe in 1995. They were HUGELY successful at the time for businesses (1991). But they were expensive. It wasn't that people didn't understand their value (AT ALL). It was that they were expensive for consumers. ($2,200, which was a LOT of money back then. So think of how much better we are doing economical now. Everyone has computers & laptops. And the price hasn't really gone up that much. (4) The Donner Party was 86 people.... They DID NOT "meet a quack who promised them a shortcut". On June 27th they were warned by James Clyman NOT to take Hastings Pass because he thought it too difficult with wagons. The next morning, it was Reed to chose to IGNORE the advice of a friend (who had just travelled back through the pass). They had derived their plan from a book entitled "The Emigrants' Guide to Oregon and California" by Major Lansford Hastings, a lawyer and explorer who had fought in the US Civil War. The book was written (based on his travels) as a guide to Oregon & California in order to entice settlers to settle (and colonize) northern California. The Donners themselves were comfortable but NOT wealthy. George Donner was a 62yr old farmer. James Reed however WAS wealthy. Though he was the only one. He is the one who essentially funded the trip. It is likely that the lavish two story wagon Reed insisted on bringing along contributed to their failure to reach the pass when the season was more favorable. But Hastings previous experience on the journey had been without wagons. Many other used the Hastings Pass following the Springfield Party. (It takes you up to Truckee/Lake Tahoe. So it was NOT "bogus". However, Hastings, who was a week ahead of the Donner/Reed party, had left a note along the trail telling them the path had become impossible & to wait for him to return. It took 5 days for them to find Hastings. Hastings mapped out an alternate route. But Reed chose to turn off the track & take the party through tangled wilderness. -- It killed them. Not a bogus route. Not a quack. Arrogance. The takeaway of that story is -- (1) Don''t be arrogant. (2) Don't ignore the advice of those who have gone before you. (3) Don't shortcut the road to success using either 1 or 2. Sorry. I like to read history. I don't like to revise it or misquote it (if I can help it). I jumped into this channel via the rather incredible Eric Weinstein interview. Truly wonderful. - I just expected more.
And he said Europe didn't see much innovation or advancement in wwii- that's insane, between the British and the Germans there were plenty advancements
"The most successful people are not the ones who can produce complex solutions to all their problems, but the ones who are able to apply fundamental methods to engage even their most complex problems". As a part-time esports coach, I have found this to be true not just in competition sport, but in all facets of life. Understanding fundamentals of how and why something works, lets you break it down to its core components and tackle them individually - while the opposite would be like a big soup where everything mixes together and problems compound even if just one part is slightly out of order. If you do not understand what salt tastes like on its own, how will you know that lack of salt is the reason the other flavors in your problem soup feel flat? Also alternative: I would rather find myself thinking; "Oh wow, I actually learned something from this IKEA manual-esque method that is simplified so a toddler could get it", than the opposite of "Oh wow, this topic is presented in a manner so complex that I am clearly not certified to even learn about it, let alone start implementing it in my own life".
The cost of innovation in good times is risk. You're expending resources on a Gamble when you could be expending resources on what is known to work or on maximizing comfort, security and/or profit.
@@friendlyfire7861"worth it" is highly subjective. Advancement is valuable but more valuable than living unmolested, more valuable than avoiding chaos and destruction? I think innovation is a poor excuse for violence.
This guy has great ideas, terrible information. The economy is not doing great... it was ww1 that started off with horses... Europe innovated MASSIVE amounts in the 40's. He sounds like someone who likes sounding smart rather than being smart. Who also is able to speak on obvious things that are always relevant so it's always good to talk about them.
I've been borderline broke my entire life (I'm 57), I have no property, no stocks, shares or money. Live on a veteran pension and I fantasise about winning the lotto. But I just know that winning the lotto would destroy me, end me. Yet, I still fantasise about 'all that cash'. I don't play the lotto.
48:37 The thing about the Donner Party story and every "example we should learn from" narrative, is that if they took the SAME shortcut and it paid off with wild success, then the story would be about "taking big risks" and "fortune favors the bold", instead of "they were tempted by a short cut and paid for it with misery and cannibalism." It always seems to me that there's a convenience to choosing a "they took a risk" lesson for your life & business book, and then finding a historical tail that shores it up, but it's arbitrary because there's ALSO a story about "people who took a bold risk and sailed across the ocean and found a new continent" or "took a risk on this unknown Facebook company" if you want teach the exact opposite lesson. I think the real lesson is "Gambles pay off or don't. We'll pretend there was predictable cause and effect in our narrative, later, and use your story to support our life & business advise."...
No fluff? The guy called today's economy very strong in the first five minutes and we're on the brink of hyper inflation and the most promising market growth is in the defense sector because WW3 is a foregone conclusion.
I've got the hack for you boys, can't get into the mental framework to consider reading productive work? Simply call it studying. You are no longer carving out reading time from your spare leasure time. You make time for study.
Nah its fine, they have infinite money... Sarcasm aside, this guy is extremely hit or miss. I think its because he speaks simply not accurately. "Good enough-ism" as he says.
I agree, as it's said "Necessity is the mother of invention". Unfortunately often BAD events are the ones that highlight the "Necessity", therefor invention to follow. But if we were smarter, we could highlight the "Necessities" such as Better health, More justice, More equality ... on our own without the need to go "One step back, eg with with wars, pandemics...." and realize that we are already one step back and we need to "step forward"
That is so funny about walking through first class, when I travel and I walk through 1st class, I always say to the airline stewardess if I'm standing there are a few minutes ," well this is probably the longest I will ever be in 1st class or business class 😅😅" but I traveled to 13 countries in the last two years, so that's fine by me!! I have more important things to spend my money on 🌎🌎my last car was 24 years old when I had to get another car 🚗🚗. Loved the conversation, thank you!!
The insights on long-term mindset vs. short-term reactions are spot on. Entrepreneurs should note that true competitive advantage often stems from creating a customer success strategy that evolves with client feedback, not just innovation for its own sake. It's a marathon, not a sprint.
Chris, thank you man! I am grateful you release 3 episodes a week. Especially so thoughtful on the questions, responses, and comments you volley with your guests. You enlighten me continually, and I'm super thankful you have given me 700 episodes to consume versus watching television that has no return. Thank you, see you soon mate.
Other than saying the pandemic accelerated “good” research on mRNA technology, the podcast was lively and informative. I’m always amused when Chris mentions a related book, research article, etc. to the guest expert and gets a “never heard of it” in return. 😀
Yeah that wasn't the upside of the pandemic, which was that many people came to understand how the world REALLY works. Big Pharma exists to optimise returns for shareholders, not to optimise your health; Pharma's influence on govt & media is deep & wide.
This guy’s tone is so certain and some of his examples are so flimsy that I automatically assume he doesn’t know what he is talking about 😅 Have to take everything he says with a grain of salt
Regarding the topic of soldiers actually shooting at the enemy: Historically, there is ample evidence for it and that it happens without the soldier even being aware. And it was shown the success of armies is directly tied to how well soldiers actually shoot at their enemy. Modern training is exactly as described--it removes or desensitizes the thought of shooting at a person. For example, using a human silhouette at the gun range instead of a bullseye makes you more used to shooting at a person. Boot camps also use live fire exercises (crawling under barb wire wile real bullets are flying over them) for troops to become accustomed to real combat conditions. Much of military success is discipline & training more than tactics or even equipment.
@@themacocko6311 No. It's not technical. At all. "Accepted" is what you meant; "excepted" is what you wrote. The only term is "bald-faced lie". There is no other kind of -faced lie in English, and never has been. "Bold-faced" is just a mishearing of "bald-faced". "bare-faced" is just a synonym of "bald-faced" with much less character, like a non-native English speaker tried to simplify and make "bald-faced" easier to remember and pronounce and hear.
@@themacocko6311Just watching a math video and realized "bold-faced" is a typesetting adjective, not an adjective for describing humans or human behaviors.
I have never heard of this person before so all I can base a comment on is this interview. That said , what planet does he live on? The part where he says that everyone has different life experience is true but I can't image where he comes from to think that "The world is doing well right now". I had the idea from the title that he was a person who studies people and how they make choices. No , salesman or huckster maybe.
I think he asks some phenomenal questions, but also that he's read a little bit in a lot of areas and has some dunning Kruger going on in several. The example I've just come to is 2 chapters in where he's talking about climate change as a bad thing, using CO2 "ppi" (I'm assuming he meant ppm) climbing as his metric of it being bad, when I know he's had guests on who are SME in that area explaining to him why increased CO2 is actually a net good (at current levels, obviously we can't continue to expend fossil fuels at the rate we are or we will run out in short order). I think Douglas Murray was correct when he identified Chris as being high in agreeableness: not necessarily with his guest, but the audience kickback to anti-narrative climate guests is far more unpleasant than if he concurs with the status quo.
“Not too many developments came out of Europe in the 40’s” really??!, Radar for one, Whittle developing his jet engine was another, the list is endless!, typical American attitude, they believe they invented everything 😂, this is very far from the truth!!.
It's pretty interesting to me that Housel keeps talking about "success," but at no point does he define what that means to him, and in his usage. I'm pretty sure I get what he means, but it's also pretty clear that he has a fairly narrow definition of success (at least in this conversation), and may not be considering the possibility that there could be a vast sea of alternate possible definitions. It's especially amusing in that they explicitly discuss the need for new metrics AND so often point out these "successful" people are often miserable and have lives that he's not interested in having himself. To my ears, that doesn't sound like a very successful version of "success." Interesting conversation overall though (even if all of his anecdote and example details might be incorrect, misremembered, or otherwise way off)
@33:57 open plan offices. Yeah, hate those too. I once went to work wearing big hearing protection devices. You know, the ones they use on a construction site. That'll shut them down. :-D
Everything can be a science as long as an experiment always has the same result. Psychological experiments can never have the same result. Psyches are too different.
Majority of innovations and value creations come from neurodivergents. The more neurodivergent, the more the innovation. Yet neurodivergents that due come up with innovations don't get a disproportionately higher share of the value that they just created. So what's the point of leaning into your neurodivergence when it only helps the people that have, continue to do so and will still harass you by treating you as "other" and ostracizing you???? Shouldn't this be taught in schools? If you are autistic, have ADHD or some other neurodivergence, do not lean into it as the world will benefit itself AND still punish you for it. Schools need to teach students that. A world that stands atop in inequity and injustice should not stand at all.
9:50 Oh God, now he's saying a command economy produces results. Yes, force can create a specific result--at an expense far in excess of what is achieved.
Stress causes change. This is why governments cattle prod their population from time to time to increase productivity and nationalism. Stress also thins the herd. Stress/Pain is more important than happiness/joy. Boxing champions crowned during a given year usually identifies the Boxer to a strongly struggling country/culture. Tough love teaches you the most about what love is and how one loves themselves. 9/11 was arguably caused by America conducting a self-reset.
And because the U.S government had a contract to supply Russia with corn, after the dust bowl they had to buy foreign grown corn to supply Russia at the original contract price so it ended up costing Americans a fortune
So if like the desire and urge to become successful and earn lots of money is high then the company becomes successful in nowadays right?Then what pushes them to be set in a path of constant and uniform success? To make more money?,but we already got more
@24:50’ish you speak about specialization and role-relevant mindsets. Interesting that you echo Adam Smith views on this while with the speed of change and the lessons on risk of silos from the Titanic to the apathy of large corporations you mentioned earlier argue for being more nimble than a collection of specialists can muster. Ok - I’ll keep listening to see how you resolve this tension.
As far as investing in the stock market, I've noticed that most people are worried about figuring out how much house in car they can afford. They're too busy looking the part rather than playing the part and playing the part takes time and sacrifice and knowing when to tell your ego no.
I like this guy. That said, I wake up afraid every day. My whole world hangs by a thin thread. I give 100% all the time, but I make very little headway. What's worse is if I ever get sick. Then the money disappears. I don't have much to work with, so when it's gone, I have a big problem. But I have a routine that works, and I am miraculously healthy, so I manage to get by. But here's the thing, I feel like I am constantly treading water, moments from drowning, and I can't see the shore. It is really becoming scary as I age. I begin to think, if I don't figure this out soon, I will be too tired to continue. So yeah, I guess I'm Europe. No time to innovate, we gotta put these fires out. I wish I could get a little further up, so I don't live in fear of this all going away someday. And now you know the whole point of my striving. I must find a way to get me and mine just a little further up. I simply must.
@11:45 regarding good news always playing out over a long time and never happening quickly. Watching the lottery ball numbers being picked and finding out you had the winning ticket.
"The long term investor doesn't get to ignore the short term volatility" - This statement is incorrect. Anyone who has a 401(k) who diligently puts money in and NEVER CHECKS THE BALANCE is a long-term investor who perfectly ignores the short term.
This dude needs to spend a bit more time with his nose in a history book. Some of his reasoning/justifications are apparently built on a shaky understanding of historical events. Weak.
Moses was first in history to record Pi near 1400 BC in the Wilderness Tabernacle blueprints. 330 Exodus 26:7 15 Exodus 26:9, 12 - 1 Exodus 26:13 makes π 314 Exodus 26:7-9, 12-13 The Tabernacle had 11 curtains, each 30 cubits long. So, all the curtains together were 11 x 30 = 330 cubits long. One of these 11 curtains was to be folded in half. A curtain 30 cubits long folded in half, it becomes 15 cubits long. So, the adjusted length is 330 - 15 = 315 cubits. The same folded curtain is supposed to have half a cubit of material hanging off at both ends of the Tabernacle. Since there are two ends, that adds up to 2 x 0.5 = 1 cubit. So the final adjusted length is 315 - 1 = 314 cubits. 3.14 = 314 circumstance/100 diameter ≈ π ratio, 100 cubit court per Exodus 27:9-18 ............................. π was rediscovered in 2015 by an engineer from Wisconsin. Geometry people will see this as circle-shaped. However, Josephus the Historian describes the traditional rectangle-shaped Tabernacle. These are two different shapes. Exodus 26:13 makes Pi
