Its a bubble if AI is hype, its got a long way to run if A.I is real, do your own research and bet accordingly .. myself I am 62 and have been investing and tracking AI since I read Kurzweil in my 30s I don't think its a bubble it looks real to me. Watch Tesla videos showing FSD 12.1 or 12.2 forget about Tesla itself just watch the AI you can see for yourself what its capable of in a measurable way, now apply that to AI in other more difficult to view / judge fields ... as I say it looks real.
45:51 btw, you said Google's buying hardware from Nvidia (which they are for google cloud clients to rent from), but from what I know on their gemini development, they used their own in house TPUs to train Gemini, which might be a reason why it's trash.
Something important to remember is that patterns that look like bubbles are bubble and patterns that look like bubbles are also not bubbles at other times. So you cannot easily determine a bubble just by stock price and market trends. You have to accurately and rigorously trace and map out the capital flows. Meaning that you need to know exactly why the revenue is increase or decreasing, and how the technology is going to be implemented. The Kathy woods bubble burst already a while back. This AI market movement is actually a paradigm change. You can apply the concept and power of transformers (the basis of LLMs like chatgpt) to ALL other fields. For example you can make (and i already see they have made) transformers that instead of predicting the next word. They train on chemicals and elements and predict the next evolutions of elements that would have taken millions of years to occur. You can do it with genetics. Economics etc. Basically enter something you want the neural network to turn into a type of language patterns it understands how to unfold. Then experiment with questions and meta studies on these new demi-gods of their field/industry. So the use of AI capable processors-AI optimized processors, is in spiking up. Not using it means being left behind. This is accelerating a split between what would you even call it? Users and non-users. I think some people call it normies and im not sure what the other name is. There is now easy access to a external human language programmable cortex. Use it.
Great show!!!! I have owned Nvdia for 10 years.. and never sold one share because i read A LOT & listened to Jensen Huang whenever possible & recognized that he was a genius... a visionary & that this co. was SOOO much more than a gaming stock or a crypto stock but had an amazing future esp with a genius at the helm. So when it was sold off at about $300 ... i just didn't & i didn't worry. Did i know AI would become what it is now.. of course not.. but i knew it would be something big or many things big. Ok so that being said which you went into Apple a bit more.. because it is my other highest conviction co. (yeah i bought some microsoft & the rest of the gang .. all great co's but my highest conviction in tech was always Nvdia, Apple & Amazon.(I agree this is not a bubble & def learned a lot listening to your guest explain that in detail.. GREAT INFO!! But these days you do not have to look far to see some cnbc "analyst" or you tuber just tearing them down like they are nothing. It actually upsets me.. I mean do these people not see that Apple is investing so much $ bought more AI startups than anyone else for even more brain power.. And that they are NOT "LATE" they have to perfect AI to fit into their ecosystem & provide the billions of users with privacy & not hacks & copyright infringement lawsuits.. And imo they will be the co to get AI RIGHT!!! & blow minds once again... Yet they cannot catch a break... so many naysayers who seem to enjoy the negativity. I know Apple's style & i get they will wait to announce anything amazing but i also think they are not waiting to the last minute to create their masterpiece & probably can announce something NOW> this time i might agree that Apple may need to announce something soon to stop this negativity in it's tracks. I mean they are APPLE they really do not have to prove a goddamn thing... but i sure which they would move up major announcement.. (this time) but hey they are going to do just great w/o my opinion .. I just hate these people feeling vindicated esp w stock price down... ANY OPINION??? Mr. Tantarelli def burst the bubble of all the "Bubble theorists" with clear concise comparisons & just valuable information. I wonder if you have a link to his show.. I'd love to hear more. THX to both of you for most informative you tube ... idk maybe EVER!!
Those who come on CNBC and cry "bubble" are mostly those who have sorely missed the boat, especially those who talk about the coming "reckoning", which they so hope for.
Very reasonable argument. It could also be a bubble that will last for many years due to the usefulness of developing AI technologies. All these folks talking stocks up or down want to influence the marketplace - and no one really can. They know about as much as anyone else as to what will happen.
Alex, thank you SO MUCH for being someone who CARES about your subscribers and not just getting the numbers. You are SUCH an awesome resource and thank you for doing the research and making the necessary connections/networks with others to continue to evolve and be GREAT at what you do! YOU ROCK FOREAL! 🎉🎉🎉
People who bought Apple, Tesla, FB, Amzn and sold when they heard the word bubble regretted it. I can't tell you where Nvidia will be in 6 months but with the moat and head start they currently have, the way in which AI is growing I wouldn't bet against them long term.
Bubbles tend to be on companies that can't justify their valuation - NVIDIA has solid income and is profitable. I think first you have to define exactly what makes a 'bubble' - otherwise is just opinions.
This was an incredibly valuable episode. Thanks to you both. I did want to add (as someone who also lived that bubble): Starting in 2000, NASDAQ dropped 39%, 21%, and 32% each year. Basically, your $100 in Jan 2000 was $33 in Jan 2003. Even if this current "bubble" is a quarter the size of the Dot Com bubble, that could still mean a drop of 16% over 3 years. (I know it's not a bubble, but that is the analogous downside risk).
@@TickerSymbolYOU oh, i agree totally. I do wonder if his analysis not of the way up (1995-2000) bur rather the way down (2000-2003) would reach a similarly clear conclusion.
Past year 2000, until 2003-04, we have seen down market. So I wonder what can be expected given that the debt crisis period is not discountable. If no more wars, assuming Republicans at helm, I pray for smaller debt driven downtime this t8me around.
I don’t know anything about trading. But to me, thèse comparisons are not Apple to Apple. Back in the 2ks, the internet was new and companies were pretty small. Today we’re talking about multi billion companies that are doubling / trippling their stocks values in a couple years. This sounds like it could be a bubble to me
BIG difference between 2000 and now is that mobile phones were not used for investing and trading. Knowledge that retail investors have now is way beyond what we had in 2000. Also, nvidia is 20x in 4 years
Excellent video! I have been saying this all the time we are not in a bubble, when some knucklehead on the interwebs says he is selling all his NVDEA stocks because it is in a bubble. Actually I think we are in a time the opposite could happen... Stocks are deeply undervalued and companies earnings and profits outrun their valuations, and stocks fail to catch up, because it scares investors how fast these companies are growing. But at some point valuations will have to catch up, so I will keep on accumulating! month after month!
Nobody can know, it looks like a bubble but bull runs always look like bubbles in the rear view mirror. The only logical step if you're not sure you're in a bubble is to be partially invested and have cash on the sidelines. Luckily cash is yielding rates higher than inflation so whether you're cash or stocks you're doing great right now.
Bull runs do not always look like bubbles in hindsight. 2009 - 2019 was a legit bull run, and it was due to steady, consistent gains throughout the years.
Goo point but I would say that by using the DCF model and using a 50 to 55% growth rate if it still at an appropriate price is not yet a bubble. but if the price starts through a 50 to 55% growth show too far then possible it is a bubble
Yeah, but they also reached that assessment BEFORE they placed their bet. And those who are long also stand to gain if a stock goes up. But they also reached their positive assessment before they placed their bets. So rather than WHO is saying what, the evidence for and the logic of the various arguments for or against are what matter.
for your stock to move up some body has to buy at high prices and somebody has to sell, people who like the stock dont have a reason to sell, so be happy that shortsellers make money intraday so your stock can go up - that how you get momentum, otherwise the people who would sell would sit very low and your chart would look like the stuff that safety oriented big money like insurance trades, those stock stay in a range for years
It is only logical to short the market if an investor thinks the market is in a bubble. The same investor can just as easily go long when the thinking is that the market is not in a bubble.
I was all set to disagree with someone that doesn't understand AI, or the previous tech bubble, but I actually agree with everything he said. Not that there isn't AI hype going around, and I'm sure there are plenty of companies that are overvalued based on dubious claims that they are doing AI things, but the core is solid and will remain solid for at least the next 5 years.
My first stock trade was YAHOO at $280 and soon it crashed to 50s in 1999 or so. I just started working out of graduate school. I lost 80% of my capital but the absolute amount was small at the time when every dollar mattered to me. It was so painful that I did not even look stock market for many years! This video brought me back to that time again! my God. what a life experience.
I was also active through that and see you can't generalize. This guy is talking about market overall, but many of those dotbombs should never have been companies nor have gone public. Now the public offerings are more sane, but the valuations are whack. They can pull back 16% on whim, just because they should. Valuations don't matter, until they do. Apparently, they inflate bubbles to teach every new generation this. 2000, 2008, 16? 18?....
When the market crashed in 2000 I was working at an IPO success story as an IT consultant in the Bay area. Their stock dropped from 66 to 6 dollars in a few days. The company was so quiet it felt like a graveyard. A techy sitting next to me lost his entire fortune in a couple of days.
@@designy2 young generation probably do not know the story of Enron which was a dramatic fall in a few days! Its employees lose everything - pension, 401k retirement, RSU, jobs.
Been beating myself up a bit that I sold my 53 shares of NVDA at $303 each back in May 2023. Now thinking of liquidating a few other investments to rebuy but afraid to do so. I do have quite a bit in a few growth ETFs that have NVDA as a chunk of the fund.
The way to rebuy is to do it slowly. Add a bit of NVDA every month. I have been slowly adding to my position every month for the last year. I have an other 35 shares to buy before my target. I will wait buying those till April (12 shares,)May (12 shares. )June ( 11 shares). NVDA will keep doing well for the next 2 years I believe.
@@1brunner699 Got to love that 850 ⬆️ w/ NVDA. Like I said, it's not too late to BUY. Just don't sell at the wrong time and wrong the price to gain profit. Like you did last time.. 🥴 😂 Lol..
I believe the concern of a lot of the people calling this a bubble is that if companies building AI solutions cannot turn those solutions into profits, they’ll slow or stop their spending on cloud and hardware, the cloud providers will slow their spending on hardware, and the market will drop quickly. So far the earnings are holding up, and hopefully they continue to, but I do think there’s some risk of a substantial correction within a couple of years if we don’t start seeing direct benefit from all the investments.
Good point but according to guidance that does not seem like a 2024 problem. Just make sure you are paying attention when the other shoe falls so you can parachute out.
I bought a couple of nvidia shares late last year when I became convinced AI is going to change the world (as it is already). So I bought ONE share of whoever is making gpus, and a couple of connected companies. And I'm fairly certain that in 10 years' time, these shares will be worth several thousand euros each. It's hard for me to imagine these companies not completely dominating the economy by then.
Great presentation! While I didn't have the data to support the conclusion you came to, I've been in agreement with your conclusion for some time. In fact, I wrote a blog where I explain Nvidia's exploding market cap as a measurement of of the difference between actual AI capabilities and the common person's perception of AI capabilities. As the AI capability and perception of its ability come into alignment, it translates to higher sales for Nvidia and increased market cap. That's my theory any hoo. Additionally, I think resistance to improvement in AI capabilities is rooted in emotions for many people. The psychological admission that humans aren't the smartest form of intelligence on the planet is like when humans realized Earth isn't the center of the universe. Some people don't have a world model that can accept the displacement of human ability from the mantle on which it's sat for millennia. -Random Internet Dude
It might be worth remebering the Nasdaq was only 14 years old in 1999 & is now a much more mature exchange. A 300% move in 5 years in a mature exchange is still quite something.
In every bubble, there are a bunch of people who think it’s a bubble. There are always a bunch of people who think it’s a bubble whether it is or isn’t.
Agree. Its not a bubble for now at least. However, I did a comparative analysis between $NVDA VS $AMD VS $SMCI to know which one is the better investment using financial analysis. Please take a look and let me know your thoughts. ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-Tc0CddrB8rE.html
A lot of what I lost in the tech crash was profit not principal. But what I did wrong was buy on margin. Plus sold half my winners chasing companies that had no earnings. So I started over right away with 30k and bought PM and held for 8 years and gained 80k through div. and price appreciation. When the financial collapse hit in 2007-2008? I weathered the storm. Then through home work found NVDA, V, MA, COST, ABBV, LLY. They all make money and grow. My wife thinks I'm a genius. Hahaha , I'm not even close to genius just tired of making stupid choices. Good luck to all fellow investors.
We are in a bubble, but it’s a matter of if we are at the beginning or end of it. I’m looking forward to a long run on this one for myself and my friends at Nvidia.
Yep, not a 1999 bubble, I owned 12 stocks going into 1999 and everyone of them was up at least 20x in 1999, and I thought foolishly, I was the smartest person in the world!😱💚🍀
I do NOT think the NVDA is a bubble, and neither do my existing 597 NVDA shares (cost basis $134.78/share) If it dips significantly any further not only would I be surprised, but I might be forced to buy another 25 shares? In any event for any NVDA share holder, we are good for AT LEAST the 2nd quarter of 2025. for 2024, we are gonna be just fine- NO COMPETITOR can come even close to the NVIDIA H200 Tensor Core GPU which supercharges generative AI and HPC workloads at a speed that leads the market People/bears who don't understand NVDA will continue to hate the stock as it surpasses expectations and raises guidance throughout the rest of the year!!! NVDA has changed my life completely
I just brought one share of nvidia just recently. As I had a little bit of cash. Because I only earn about $50,000 a year I usually do dollar cost averaging on my shares every week.. I have been investing for three years now.
people been saying Nvidia bubble since it was at 300 - It was at 970 on Friday before going back down to 850 my predictions is on Monday it goes down to 820-30 and just keeps going back up its gonna fight to hit 1000 but eventually it will.
One of the MOST (emphasis on most) visually organised education videos. Its something which others can learn from. It's how MKBHD set a standard for Tech videos. Keep it up
Its a bubble if AI is hype, its got a long way to run if A.I is real, do your own research and bet accordingly .. myself I am 62 and have been investing and tracking AI since I read Kurzweil in my 30s I don't think its a bubble it looks real to me. Watch Tesla videos showing FSD 12.1 or 12.2 forget about Tesla itself just watch the AI you can see for yourself what its capable of in a measurable way, now apply that to AI in other more difficult to view / judge fields ... as I say it looks reeal.
@@TickerSymbolYOU Great video, great explanation! I am looking forward to Singularity is Nearer as well. I feel like the more I learn about AI, the more I feel like I am concerned about how the future technology will turn out to be, rather than whether my investments in AI-related stocks will be successful. It would be interesting to become rich riding the AI wave but money would be useless if it comes to the point when AI is a million times smarter than humans and decided to wipe out humanity lol.
I bought 10k worth of nvidia shares back during 2020 April, it has returned 9-10x and just now my uncle and friends ask me about nvidia stocks,thats the indicator for me, its time to get out, I'm gonna use the money to invest in palantir or even intel. Ppl don't realize semiconductor business is cyclical, market leader doesn't stay at the top forever at this industry.
@@AjaySenseiif it run more it run more so be it, but with nvidia already at 2.5T++marketcap. I don’t see much room to grow as opposed to business that’s still in 30-100b
when the ipos were hot , it was at a point during the pandemic that 7 trillion $$$ of the gvt stimulus money was getting to the public , with so many shut downs , noting to do , it literally was like lets come up with an idea and make a company , and that was a huge amount of money to pump into partially closed economy , so people invested that money in many of these ipos companies .
It always bothers me that these charts aren't inflation adjusted, especially when you start looking at > 5 years. It really makes a huge difference. The market is actually lower than it was at the previous high when you inflation adjust.
While I understand the sentiment that tech stocks are nowhere near as overpriced "yet", I feel that there is quite a lot of exuberance around that maybe starting to get out of hand. E.g. it seems that supermicro is up at least 20% today because of s&p inclusion (what happened to palantir's s&p inclusion?) How should things progress from here to avoid too much "bubbling", or is it going to be inevitable?
QE and ZERO interest rates for nearly 15 years means world wide debt is at mind boggling proportions. Now interest rates have risen to about 5%. Commercial property in the USA is dire it means the banks are in deep trouble.We are already in a crash.
I think what we have today not a tech bubble but there are company level bubbles… One thing comes up and everyone running after the stock and similar stocks… before Netflix then Tesla now nvdia…
In March of 2000, Bob Brinker from Marketimer called a bubble and suggested subscribers to sell and hold Cast and called the bottom in 2002 to buy back in. But not at internet stock. Anyone who held Apple in 1998-2000 and hold until now would have had a major gain of 54K+. Instead of buying and selling, follow Buffet and Munger and hold a great company. Holding QQQ from height of 2000 to now would get you a close to 400% gain in 20 years
You must be young. Even though AI is in it's infancy, the stocks may have moved in advance of actual real life development. There are no rules that say they have to move along together step by step at the same speed.
Nah. NVDA stock price has moved, for the most part, up with earnings, though have not quite caught up, meaning it is cheaper now than it was last year. @@RajDeelish
some of these comparisons don't really work. Doubling when the price is already so high isn't gonna happen. The composition of the index probably changed too. There's probably a lot more money involved now than before. That might be a better metric.
Thank you for this conversation, my new hobby is stocks, and ive taken a large position on NVDA, " is this a tech bubble?" is exactly the question i needed answered. now im subscribed and binging your stuff!
It's challenging to keep your composure when investing in a company experiencing a parabolic rise. Individuals with the patience and psychological fortitude to remain calm amidst significant fluctuations are exceedingly rare. I've attempted to do so on several occasions, only to find myself still holding onto stocks that I believed would continue to climb.
The only difference between now and then is that our Government has been overrun with Corruption and that’s the main reason why most Americans have very little trust with the Stock Markets.
One of your most informative videos that I have ever seen, and that is saying a bunch!! , Because I think your content is excellent. NVDA has enough demand to go full throttle for the next several years, and it's customers have the cash on hand to back it up. And the market will support AMD, Intel, etc getting a huge slice of pie as well. Even if the rest of the market has a big correction, or the economy takes a dump, I believe that the big tech / big AI players will continue full steam ahead! I am placing my bets accordingly. Good luck to all. And thanx a bunch Alex!!😀👍
next several years? nope. Maybe next 6-8 quarters. The biggest 4 of NVDA customers (40% of its revenues) will be its competitors as well. MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN and META are in the process of making their own GPU. NVDA Margin will fall significantly when AMD, INTC joins the party.
That is entirely possible. But once the power of AI starts to really become obvious, many other companies and countries will be happy to pick up the slack. But if changes happen, you simply adjust capital allocation. Either way, grab some popcorn because the world is about to change a bunch. I just hope that the change is not too dramatic.
This is a very good discussion. Having been in the telecoms/internet sector during the late 1990s - early 2000s when the dotcom bubble happened and the telecom crash happened, what is going on today with AI, Nvidia and SMCI is a far cry from those days. In those days you had billboard advertisements along the streets "for the Next Big IPO". That's what a real stock-market bubble looks like.
Thank you so much for this video, it’s been so helpful for me. I’ve just started investing and I have finally understood things! The first stock I invested in was NVIDIA last month, so I really appreciate this good deep analysis. Also, I love that it’s not just another clickbait, sponsored video full of ads everywhere like the ones that are so popular now. I really appreciate the discussion supported by research.
It took us a bit over 3 years to go public September, 99'. The stock was priced at $12 one month prior to IPO, $18 one week prior, then it went out priced at $25 and closed at $156 the first trade day. There is nothing speculative nor overvalued of Nvidia. The only risk is what Buffett was concerned, what happened if China disrupted the TSMC chips output. If that happened, it would cause worldwide recession. You could say SMCI, AMD and TSLA are way more speculative than Nvidia by a wide margin. SMCI, there is no unique technology and it has many competitors in Taiwan, no with its scale and market presence. Thanks to the protectionism in the western countries, otherwise there are many stronger companies in China with better server technologies than SMCI. TSLA actual numbers such as operating margin, gross margin, cash flow does not justify its valuation, but OTOH, it is a hope, dream and a religion. As long as the hope is alive and well, you never want to bet against it.
I remember that time, as an IT-hobbyist from that time: The stocks were like fishing during ant-spawning season, you toss the blank hook in and fish fought for it. Stockmarket was like that. Me and my friends who were into IT either started those companies, or worked for them, and most of us were buying dividend stocks like ABB, Sandvik, Volvo, Catepillar et.c. because we KNEW how fishy some of the companies were!
The other reason this is a bubble, is that US stock SHOULD have crashed if not for this bubble. If China is not buying Treasury bond, the interest rate will have to climb, or there is stagflation. Either will lead to correction of evaluation.
Great discussion. Long time holder of Nvidia since 2015. Got to admit the earnings release week was stressful for me. This helped me to keep my long-term perspective.
Extraordinary Insights , this showcases NVDIA powers and shatters the myths that it is not an AI bubble . This one video will clarify so many unanswered questions about (Internet & AI ) boom. Kudos to you to produce this 👌✌👍
I watched the video two months ago and I am watching it again for the invaluable content and to remind myself that the market should be going be higher. Thanks
@TickerSymbolYOU, One thing that is not covered in these discussions is: Hardware refresh cycle. Nvidia, Super Micro might have great sales, earnings numbers now. But once big tech companies buy all the chips they need, late 2024 and into 2025, might be hard for NVDA, AMD and others to have similar growth numbers. This could trigger a major sell off in these chip makers stocks.
Thanks for addressing the buy the dip bs; as I can't see how folks don't realize that, your capital shrinks when a stock that is going down in value. This is why smart investors invest at near or at the bottom of a stock's decline and sell at or near the top.
