Fallout 76 How To Get All Rare Masks // The Science Behind Loot Drops 

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A fun story. The drop rates in 2019 were broken. The uncommon and rare masks both had a 1% drop rate. So when they brought the event back in 2020 they adjusted the drop rates so people would have a better chance to get the uncommon masks they desperately wanted. So they made the uncommon rate higher than the common. And Bethesda being Bethesda, they never bothered to change it again.

For Fo76 servers running slow due to AFKers there’s also people who join the game when the game starts. It’s insane how bad loading times become

Actually you could argue that AFKers aren't interacting much with the area (no weapons fired, etc.), so they probably have less impact on the speed of the server than ones who are actually playing. Yes, the growing mask pool has been making getting any particular mask that much harder. I think Bethesda should have rethought the drop rate before doing this. Thanks for the video.

The common masks are tied to how many bots survive. Players are so good at getting the bots to live that most times the odds are in favor of getting the uncommon ones. If some die then it becomes in favor of the common masks.

Had 4 of us running the event for 8 straight hours yesterday and 4 others on another server AFKing....0 glowing mask..

I got lucky with the 2 rare masks off the get when the event first started this time around. the problem is Bugthisduh is overly diluting the loot pool with each year of the event in order to time gate and push despairing people to the cash shop to buy their masks. I say hold out on the atomic shop until you get all the ingame rares just to push back and send a message.

Got my first glowing mask today after 59 attempts…

I have fully participated in over 40 events and nada, so now I do actually afk it,why bust my ass for nothing.

Thank you for capturing footage of me and my friends! Fasnacht is fun and frustrating at the same time lol

Great video, I finally got a rare mask today, a death claw one. Was AFK for 99% as had to make food but helped end the sloth and wolves. Might try that again!

I have marched in 30+ Fasnacht Events so far this year and not one Rare Mask has dropped for me yet. The odds have not been in my favor. I will say, one of those events failed because no one had a God-Weapon in the 4-man group that actually walked in the parade (11 AFKers in the area though) and 3 Robots died at the very end (glowing wolves tore them to pieces) . AFKers need to participate in the event for the event to be successful, or no one will ever get rare masks. Ultimately this years Fasnacht has been very frustrating for me. :)

Hey, great video! Very well put together! I finally after playing hours on end, I got the exact mask I wanted, the Glowing Blue Devil Mask!

Naturally, Reddit is going insane, with people thinking their new shiny glowing masks, should demand insane trades. I guess I'll just wait a while, after the event, for the dust to settle, and try to trade some of my rare non glowing masks, when peoples inflated egos come back down to Earth, LOL!

Really enjoyed the breakdown. This event is always interesting lol. Toxicity is always up the roof the first week. After it kinda dies down. At least what ive always noticed. Anyway been very lucky this year… and all my rares attained via: AFK!! However when you afk, I got you with my quad rail explosive, nothing gets passed me. And of course a fire healing weapon.

AFKers did statistically increase the number of bunched panties on any given server.

I heard from my cousin's girlfriend's mother's ex-neighbor's son's former-best-friend's uncle that if you eat a Fasnacht donut just before the effigy is burnt, you get a better chance at the rare masks.

This was a good video. Well done & Informative. Ty guys 👍

This is the first time I watch a video in which science is actually it. Very, very nice indeed. Left my like and also subscribed. Very good job, gals 🤝🏻

This is my first time participating in the event, missed out the other year and it sucks trying to get the old rare mask. I end up dropping all the common and uncommon ones cause i dont need a shit load of them😂

The odds might be low but the odds are 0 if you don't participate so AFK away I say

Great vid!

a great video ,thank you loved it.

I love this. Still waiting for a glowing one.

Any research on the decorations, what combinations might affect turn out i run solo to avoid worthless afkers

I don't even care about the glowing masks, I just want a Buffoon.

Well done breakdown of the fastnacht odds! I acutally got the glowing scorchbeast queen mask you mentioned. Damn, I guess I drained all my luck for an good while with that drop ^^'

Got 1 glowing atm, But, got god roll fixer from rewards xD I think my rng luck has been drained with that

ive done 100 ish with 2 characters 1 Afk so 50ish runs and only got 1 glowing its brutal thats on xbox

I'm still waiting for a single rare one.

I’ve run this event over 142 times so far. I keep the masks until Fasnacht is over and run a tally. So far I have over 8 rare drops and no duplicates this year. Run this video again afterwards and I will update my tally.

I ran the event 83 times and only got the winter man mask but I’m not complaining

Do the chance percentages reset everything I get booted ?

i run 2 ps4s, 2 accounts. i run the event with one while the other plays tuba. sometimes they both play tubas, on dufferent servers. afk etiquette: play musical instrument or hide really good and don't wear a rare mask. people can push you out of the event, or lure enemies in to kill you, or nuke it. seeing a bunch of dorks spinning with your precious masks on bumms people out and makes them want to mess with you.

I have 3, i got 2 at 7am, and 1 at 7pm. I think you have a higher chance at getting it, but only if you've been in the same server for a few hours. At least that's how I've done it. That or Bethesda raised the odds.

Got one glowing mask at a nuked event and nothing since, jesters toothies etc. Not bothering now just ignoring the event and all those wasted nukes. Couple of days to go. Happy Fastnacht

It feels like a lot more people are going AFK this year.

I usually play the game three or four hours a day and I think I've received more berets than anything else. Owl, Jester, Skull and (in the last couple of days) Scorchbeast masks have been dropping for me. I've also made a few caps selling radtoad and wolf meat to the vendors

How do you know how many times yourve run an event?

Fasnacht needs a purveyor like murmph. Trade in crap masks for a random rare mask or event completion tickets sorta like overseer tickets to prevent hoarding and keep people playing. Just based on the size of loot pools, complete like ten events > trade in those tickets for a random rare mask > still a low chances of being exactly what you want but you're getting something for your effort; this current system is garbage. Imma probably walk away from this years without a rare mask, with almost 35 events/HOURS under my belt so far (sorry Bethesda I work and dont wanna burn up my xbox). Considering how so called community driven/celebrated fasnacht is, people end these weeks feeling burned out and left out. I've literally only had regular sbq and regular honey bee masks drop from new stuff. I had to buy reg blue devil, reg scorchbeast and 2 of the new plans from player vendors. All I want from fasnacht is a glowing sbq and glowing honey bee dammit. Also why wouldn't wastelanders check out this crazy robot parade, at least settlers and maybe raiders. How about revamping the actual event thats not been touched since it launched 5 YEARS ago. I like Helvetia all peaceful without the scorched, maybe add npc's to talk to even if its just easy rudimentary quests/dialogue and limited to just Fasnachts weeks.

I am at over 100 and no rares

What’s the story if I’m getting 0/20? 0 out of any number. My gf has gotten 2 and seems normal. I’ve done more events by at least double, and haven’t gotten a single glowing :/

Something bizzare happened to me odds wise at Fasnacht yesterday afternoon. I've been running a camp shop more or less since Fasnacht began south of town by the road. Grahm, the super mutant vendor came walking through my camp and through the intersection where the toads spawn during Fasnacht FOUR TIMES in an afternoon. I'm really curious what the odds of that are because yesterday the RNG really seemed to like him. Made me wonder if it glitched out or something or if I really was that lucky. Each time he was headed towards town I ran ahead, plugged in my headphones and called out "Grahm's coming guys!!! intersection with the toads! he's coming if you need to sell something!!!!"

Just got my first glowing mask ( non-queen scorchbeast ). Have run the event probably 20-30 times. Just happy I got the first one under my belt, now everything else is gravy IMHO. Also got a father winter helmet.

I think they should move some of the old rare masks from the rare pool to the uncommon pool when they introduce new ones. Based on popularity, move say the Raven, Winter Man, etc. out of the rare pool. I'm not convinced that there isn't a sub-category in the rare pool. This is my first Fasnacht and I've gotten the Raven, Brahmin, Winter Man and Hag from the rare category. No glowing or loon (the ones everyone wants)

I know it’s anecdotal but I swear 70% of the players who I see have glowing masks are under level 50. There has to be a correlation with your level and the drop rate. Almost feels as if Bethesda gives newer players a better drop rate.

On day 2 I got back to back glowing masks (unicorn, pig) then nothing of note for 6 days. Yesterday I got back to back motorized butter churns. Then the lat 4 runs I got nothing of note again. I have been keeping all the dropped items and plan to calculate the drops of the items I got. Then I will be selling really dirt cheap or giving them away after the event.

Nice video thank you

What’s your thoughts on doing the tasks giving you a higher chance for better drop?

I've played every time I could and crashed on about 40-50 fasnacht events didn't get any rewards for the crashed events I only have 2 rare makes I've done the event over 100 times or the robot freeze in place and I gotta wait another hour to trying hoping I don't crash

That into was incredible

I got the glow queen my second time!

I have so many masks i have no more space on the wall in my room where i display my rare items. The two last fasnachts have been crazy.

That opening scene was nuts

Does having a higher luck stat affect drop rates?

I still have yet to get a Glowing Mask

Bro I got my father winter pa helmet while afk and scrapped it without looking twice thesame day. Huge face palm moment but the hunt continues.😂

Did 90+ runs on my main account and got absolutely no rare masks 😭but the moment I decided to make an alt account to AFK for the last week of fasnacht i got 3 in the span of 40ish runs……im absolutely floored at this

It took me EXACTLY 72 hours to get one glowing mask

you’re pretty good with numbers I need you when I do my taxes 😂

I got a theory ... the first times you are in the event the higher the rate to get a rare mask ... this is for you to play more events

I've done the event about 30 times now. Haven't got a single rare mask. Got so many uncommon ones I've been dropping them for the guys I play with. Still haven't seen that butter churn either

Something you didn't cover is how the percentages shift toward common masks as robots get destroyed. These numbers are based on a perfect completion, tho it's rare to lose robots, it's still a factor.

Thank you for doing this "research". Anyone with basic statistic knowledge wouldve known already about the chances and how the game works, but you're helping more people understand (and it's not gonna do much if you're AFK-ing). It also makes me feel better for not wanting to do AFK while working or sleeping lol goes both ways. All of the tinfoil theories are wrong of course, but the issue that never being mentioned when we focus on AFK is when only a handful of active players are around vs LOTS of AFK, and then the enemy spawn increased, and there's a chance one robot will die, hence ruining the statistic of getting the rare mask. Ive been in that situation and if I didnt have friendly fire, I know for sure at least one robot would die.

I have insomnia, I dont sleep much at all. Ive missed a total of 16hrs of the event, Ive gotten no glowing mask.

I afk the WHOLE event. Using a old PS4 and a fan for cooling. I took off the plastic body of the ps4. In the whole week and a half of the event I have gotten. 2 Glowing Blue Devil. 1 Loon. 1 Brahim. 2 crazy guys….

To add onto this video, people should be looking at this events loot drop chance like a gacha game or like destiny/borderlands. The reason these drop chanced don't change from anything you do is because the drop chance is tied to a systum randomizer. Gacha games a very similar because they host these shop sellers usually called banners that sell a particular character or weapon a a fixed, randomized percentage rate (and by law they have to publish those ratee to players). Many people have tried many methods to increase the drop rates, and swear up and down that their "rituals" do work, but in reality unless the game company changes the randomizer's code it won't change for anyone. Same thing for borderlands or destiny, you can spend months doing raids or bosses but because of their games randomizer code, they might never get the right weapon or roll of a weapon. The who reason they do this is to keep people playing their game. If a gamess too easy or loots too easy to get or can be duped, no one's going to be playing it after a year. If the games too harsh on difficulty or rewards people will strait up quit and never play it again. A randomizer is both a equalizer of luck and a unconscious stop sign to keep players from ruining the game themselves. So long as players have something to Chase, without feeling their being cheated, they are less likely to get upset about results and less likely to try to cheat th systum.

The only glowing mask I've got was on a server where over 3/4 of the people in the event were afk. So the afk is false. Then I cycled through every mask I have, changing masks after each event and got 3 rares back to back to back, none glowing though. Then haven't gotten a rare since.

Does luck have any affect?

This made me feel a bit lucky cause I've gotten the raven mask and the glowing SBQ mask so far, but I really want the old man winter PA helmet

Why not during Faschnat, have random ghouls or scorched around the wasteland wearing masks? More time playing...more exploring. Also, I've noticed that when Graham shows up during Faschnat, it causes the event to not start.

I have had bad luck for masks at every Fasnacht season...BUT, I have gotten some of my best legendary weapons from the event.

The struggle is real

Glowing mask seem have like 1% of drop because I already got 4 rare mask but they not glowing ones

I so got the glowing scorch beast mask which I'm happy about. I've played the games pretty much from the beginning of the game and first 2 years running it never got a rare mask not until last year did I get all the Common masks.

I ran Fas 105 times and received 3 rares total luckily one being a glowing. I got Buffon, Demon, Glowing Scorchbeast in that order. So in theory I should’ve received 2 more masks, however after speaking with several others that have done 100 plus I’ve found similar results. It could just be a dozen people with highly unlucky rng, couple that with the 0.33% chance to hit the rare you want and that’s a rough two weeks. Realistically the best thing to do is afk as much as possible just to try and put more numbers in the pool. I will say though all 3 rares I did receive was when I was actively playing and not AFK. Most likely another statistical anomaly.

We were on the same server today. I was on my way and someone nuked it. Around 3pm Central time. Yesterday I work nights so today is my weds still.

After like 3 days straight of trying for the mask i want i afk when i sleep and do it when im active

Very happy, it was a long grind must have done over 180 events the last two weeks. My rare haul from 2024's masks 1x glow scortchqueen, 1X glow scorch beast, 1 x glow Bee & from 2019's masks 1x Loon, 2 x Raven, 2 x Hag, 2x father winter & 2 x Buffoon.

Sadly, two weeks playing the event on Xbox for me and no rare mask :c

I've run it 84 times (no AFK) and still no rare masks. LOL A friend has run it 1/2 that many times and has 2 of them. Doesn't matter, I'm just enjoying the challenge of the potential.

I sold my deathclaw and winterman masks for $18K each and bought two mutation serum recipes so they're good for something.

133 events run so far this year, and I have only managed to get three rare mask (two from previous years, and one glowing one from this year).... or a rare mask drop rate of 2.26% Fasnacht use to be a fun event that my group use to enjoy and looked forward to. We would plan to be on together and make a day of it in game from around the world - now it is a grind and heartbreak with untradeable plans that we cant share amongst ourselves to help those that missed out, or masks with such a low drop rate in bloated loot pools. At the moment (2023) with the masks we have 5 in the common tier 9 in the uncommon tier 15 in the rare tier Compare this to the original distribution in 2019 5 in the common tier 5 in the uncommon tier 1 in the rare tier So, I think BGS need to rework the event to make it more rewarding and enjoyable - • Revamp the loot pools • Mask pools need to be reworked - the common tier should be say twice the size of the uncommon tier, and the uncommon tier twice (or larger) than the rare tier • Ongoing - move all (or some) rare masks from the previous year into the uncommon tier, and move all (or some) uncommom masks in the common tier to maintain the ratio between the tiers • Correct the tier drop rate, so to the 2019 rates, so that common dropped more frequently than uncommon, which was more common than rare. • Place a "lock out" on rewards to prevent duplication (especially the masks) until all rewards from each tier of rewards are obtained • Remove the "untradeable" flag from plans

Ive been running Fasnacht pretty consistently for both times this year and have a grand total of... One rare mask. My lucj is abysmal-

Does you luck stat increase odds? It f****** should. Ive done 40ish and no rares.

I swear I saw the person on top of the church yesterday morning when I go home from Work. I can’t even afk my controller keeps disconnecting.

The odds sound right. I have mostly received more uncommon masks than anything else.

Wow i fucking love what youve done here

My son and i have played when we can. Between us we've gotten : Winter Man, Winterman Helmet, Loon, Deathclaw and glowing Blue Devil. Can't complain.

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The fasnacht event makes the servers run slower.

In the first few days I got 3 glowing masks. Since then, I only get the usual masks like soldier, witch, giant.

I have been afk'i g as much as I can and I only got 4 rare masks but all on Friday and 2 were glows that were back to back. Outside of Friday all my other masks have been common and uncommon. The RNG in this game is just a pain in B-hole

The only rare mask I’ve been able to snag so far is the Glowing Blue Devil mask

I have done waaaaaay more then 20 and have not received not 1

I have legitimately played 8 times a day or so and not even sniffed a rare mask

Never tell me the odds! Good luck everyone!

at this point ill just buy the glowing scorchbeast and honey bee masks from the first person that sells them to me

Love the stats. I’m gonna stop trying to play it. Going to spend my time on stamps instead. Thanks for what you do.