I do agree intuition should play a decent part in decision making. But I think this should be relative to the amount of experience you have. A beginner will not have the same intuitive prowess that an experienced player will have. Simply because your intuition is fueled by your experiences. That's why I think beginners should start with a sound theoretical strategy, and over time start incorporating intuition in their decisions. If people without much experience starting relying on too much gut instinct, I think they'll just make incorrect choices a lot since they don't have enough similar instances to reflect off of. Granted, I do believe we all have intuition that is drawn from a collective conscious we all share, and can be tapped into if we listen to it. But that's getting more into spiritual science and a larger topic. Great content, though. Keep it up, mayn. :)
I don't know if you will ever read this alec but I hope you do. What you neglect to acknowledge in your analysis is the opponents range. We are in a 3 bet pot which in theory means ranges are tighter. Opponent has bet the A88 flop which should narrow his range. When he continues on turn after you call the flop it begins to make his range more polar. Would OP value bet AT or AJ on the turn in a 3 bet pot? Even if you say yes to that it becomes even more polar when he bets the river. You have AK AQ sometimes AA all the 8x in your range calling a 3 bet from the button. When he bets the river his range is arguably AA AK A8s and 88 or a bluff. Many players may not even bet AK on the river for value and instead opt to put it in their check call range as you have 8s in your range. With you holding an A you remove a vast majority of his value hands. In this particular case the blocker really does matter. I think your "gut" in this situation is actually just a subconscious application of this thinking. His demeanor may also have an effect on this like you stated but the actual ranging on each street could lead a thinking player to the same conclusion. Thanks for the hand
This is such an incredibly interesting topic, and worth a lot more discussion. How much should I depend on the data points at the time, vs how much should I go with "my gut?" Others here make a fair point, by virtue of your substantial experience, your gut is going to be much more accurate than us fledgling amateurs. BUT, you can also legitimately argue that the sub-conscience mind (alt for "gut") is actually factoring in WAY more information than we realize, and we may be surprised that that "gut feel" is actually backed by a lot of analytic reasoning, and incredibly subtle observations, just at a sub-conscience level. Having said that, as a management consultant around risk management, I consult and speak at a lot at conferences about how, and why, we as humans are inherent really bad at assessing risk, and tend to prioritize data points which support our position or intention. In short, we are usually more interested in finding data points to rationalize the decision we've actually already made then data points which challenge that decision. Pros are much better at recognizing, and pushing past, those biases, so I would love to see some more thoughts and examples on factors which should influence the value you place on your "gut." Great content, thanks!
I'm an old school Poker Player. I grew up in my grandfather's brick house playing guts. For those of you who don't know what guts is, it's also known as five card draw or on your nerve. You don't have any information other than the cards in your hand and the read that you have on the opponent sitting across from you. Now all that said I try to incorporate game theory, exploitative play and intuition into my game. This I feel gives me a good balance as I work to fill gaps into my game and improve as a player. Any and all help in this regard is quite welcome " as I is poor people" disabled and no income because I'm fighting for my disability. Needless to say I am stuck in free poker hell, but while I'm here I might as well focus on my best so rhat when I do get a bankroll. I can take the one skill that I have left and do something.
I think this is a great point. I've done this too much where I know I'm good than rethink it analyzing the hand etc and fold and the guy shows me a bluff.
can you please explain and apply with examples how would a strickly GTO player would do in several situations , pre flop, flop, turn and river , so i could really understand what the hell it, the GTO ... thanks
I do have a very basic HUD that displays % of hands played, aggression factor, pre flop raise %, etc... But all i want to know if im up against a TA player or a gambler. Depending on how strong I am, i usually fold to TA players. But i use my gut to make the final decision using my gut instincts. If a player is playing 17% of hands and zero raises pre, and suddenly he makes a 5x raise? I amost never call them except with elite hands. If a loose player has been hammering the table with overbets, obvious bluffs, reraises, and just causing chaos they go to my target list. I check raise them and sometimes end up with all the chips in the middle...which i generally try not to do in a tourney...but maniacs cant be dealt with any other way. They want every decision you make to be about your tournament life. So best advice is NEVER BRING A KNIFE TO A GUNFIGHT...because if everyone started with 1500 chips, but this loose maniac somehow has 4k, you are covered and you wont get a 2nd shot. Be strong and carry a big gut.
I called the river with 6 high in a 4-8 limit game at foxwoods because my intuition told me the button steal attempt had 23. I was argueing with it in my head for a good minute until I finally made a compromise that was 50/50 and I was getting 4 to 1. He had 23. The whole table went bonkers.
Hey alec, You stated that this guy bought in for 10k and this was the 1st hand you've seen him play when you were in this session. You say he worked his stack up to 17k. If he worked his stack up to 17k that means he won a few pots during this session. How come you didnt observe him play the hands where he picked up a couple of pots? I assume you were on the table when he won a few hands because you knew that he had only bought in 10k. Please clarify. Thanks.
I don't play higher than 3/5 live but this is exactly the sort of hand that I would get to the river with in this way. In a 3-bet pot, all of the aces you'll encounter are out-kicking you, which means you can't get value from any weaker ace, and it's going to hard to get value from JJ-KK because the ace on the flop is very likely to kill your action. Therefore, the suited ace functions well as a bluff-catcher. It's even better because when he barrels this board, he's representing an ace, but you know because of your blocker that he has less combos of those than he thinks. In fact, if your plan is to fold to aggression on this board, it is probably best not to call the 3-bet with this hand at all. If you ever raise the turn or the flop to protect yourself from hands in his 3-bet bluffing range such as 7c8c or 9cTc, then your calls, plus the fact that you flatted pre (presumably you have a 4-bet range that includes the nuts and occasionally AK) mean that you're actually at the top of your range on this river. I mean... given *my* ranges, *I* would be, but I dunno about how you build your ranges.
And you also gotta just consider the price he's giving you. He's sizing his river bet to look like a value bet now that the draw bricked off... but does he really think you're peeling on the clubs when you're both that short relative to the pot AND you have something to call with? Doesn't make a lot of sense to me. It looks like he's doing... what he's doing. Which is talking himself into a cheap bluff. What does he think he's going to get you off of here after you've called twice? For that price... not much. He knows you know he knows that. But in the end, you have to call with a LOT of your range here to stop him from printing money in this spot with napkins, that's the way I see it. Which is a cold hard math thing, not an intuition thing.
Reason/Logic vs. Emotions a classic debate in many other areas other than poker...politics, marriage, having children, etc...in the end it is a choice that maybe we are not even in control? ("freewill/responsibility vs. hard determinism/no responsibility?)
He's not so much talking about emotion as he is intuition. Intuition is where you feel like you need to do a certain thing but you aren't sure why you feel that way. It's your subconscious mind recalling a tremendous number of data sets and drawing correlations between them and it's happening as a process in the background of your conscious mind. Following your intuition usually makes for good poker plays, following your emotions usually leads to terrible poker plays aka tilt.
If you are completely solid with your odds and probabilities math, with correct statistical knowledge, your instincts will never let you down! It's like that ugly feeling you get when danger is near
Is raising the turn as a semi-bluff bad here? I was thinking semi-bluff raise the turn. I also knew what your opponent had so it’s very easy to say on my part.
Great video and not something other poker youtubers talk about often. I play live games with friends and have had trouble incorporating gut feel and reads into my strategy having mostly relied on game theory when playing online. Garrett Adelstein from survivor is at the table as well!
The thing is GTO poker just means you dont lose. Its not the key to winning poker. You have to recognize your opponents mistakes and exploit them. When they make obvious mistakes, or give off tells, you need to deviate from GTO and exploit them. That is where your profit comes from in poker. Not from your perfect GTO play, but from exploiting your opponents mistakes.
I think you are right, exploitative play should play a role in every player´s game. HOWEVER, many players unfortunately often use this as an excuse to not even study game theory in depth.
Staring at the board and the sort of bob-and-weave sway tells me he's winding up for a bluff. You're more likely to stare at your chips if you have it. It's like he's figuring out what he can pretend he has. I think it's a mistake to assume this is "unconscious" or "gut" or "instinct". These are objective signs he's throwing.
When it got to the river, I think you should have re-raised and put him All In. Considering his stack, compared to the pot size, it's a relatively small price to pay to know for sure. He would have folded (obviously) unless he had ANYTHING. Having said that, I tried going all in once like this guy on a bluff and it didn't work :( My guess is you would have folded though.
what kind of a silly tip is that??? If he calls your all in, you´re just dead. And any worse hand will fold anyway. So whats the pint of raising in that spot? xD
Yeah, I think its a fold unless you know the opponent, like you said alot of the Ax hands you would beat are 2 pair on this runout, so you are only beating a couple of Ax hands. You are only beating a 3 barrel bluff with A9 and with his bet size on the river I think he dug his own grave.
I thought the same. I am a kind of a poker donkey though :D. But since the flop and turn bet are quite small, I'd definitely get to the river with worse hands. So when the river bet is also small, Ax would be in the calling range I think. I could get there with KK-JJ or some draw that I went a bit crazy with. I don't understand why the villain is not shoving or giving up. The river doesn't change much. Maybe the bluff was targetting a stubborn JJ or something like that (but then I don't expect Torelli to get to the river with that). Edit: thinking again about it. That also doesn't make much sense cuz you expect good players to 4-bet AA-JJ often. I probably wouldn't but I'm a donkey and I play the lowest stakes in where you almost never see a 4-bet.
To paraphrase a David Sklansky thought, talent beats game theory. In my mind the talent is observation and focus. Not listening to the little voice inside of you. You can always justify a bad call by saying I felt he was bluffing. I probably would have called here but so would of a lot of players. Players want to see and they don't want to be bluffed.
Nothing ever changed in the hand. Once you called the flop and turn I’m not sure how you could fold to that river based on what you put him on. It seems ridiculously simple tbh
U know why? The subconscious mind is akin to a supercomputer, it can calculate and process things that we consciously cannot. Edit: right after I wrote that u say essentially the same thing, lol
Intuitive play should also be logical, The two are not separate. The problem whoever with what you would call intuition is that it can be polluted, where as solid strategical play is not, only applied incorrectly. This is true for all things in life involving intuition. It’s a subconscious database that we store, and we can corrupt it with false positives and false negatives. When you see people take a line, and your feeling is they were bluffing, but don’t get confirmation, then you subconsciously store those conditions under a bluff line, so when your brain compares all the bluffs to value bets in that database it has errors in it, if you make too many of those errors, your intuition fails. It’s a cycle, where the more correct confirmations you get, the more likely you are to have the next one be correct also, likewise the opposite is true that the more errors you have made in the past, the more likely your next one will be an error also as the database you subconscious is using is corrupted. With that said, your still following a logical pattern to reach those conclusions. The reason GTO has achieved such a following is because anyone can follow it, study it and if applied will make them a great player. The same just isn’t true for intuition, and the other problem is it can’t be studied, everyone also thinks they have good instincts. It also goes further than intuition, into assumptions based on certain factors which your making, Like rock, paper, scissors. I’ve 3bet you the last 2 buttons, based on what kind of a player I think you are, the situation and a little ego, I predict the next 3bet I make you will react with X. Some players don’t wait for 3 times for it to occurs to make educated plays, they make adjustments an adjustment before seeing their opponent make theirs, effectively staying 1 step ahead. Some do this successfully and some don’t. Teaching people to play with gut feelings and saying “That’s a good way to play sometimes” just isn’t true for a lot of people who have so much bias they couldn’t possibly trust their instincts (most weaker players) - teaching them solid strategy however will definitely help. With that said, I think a lot of players use both very well, I like to think I do, most analysis will be done on a GTO front, however I’ve made hero calls and folds, and have a pretty good record on both. That alone doesn’t make me a winning player, strategy and experience does, it does pad the win rate and lower variance when running bad.
ConsciousPoker I like you. You have made me a much better poker player. I've gone from being a good player, to a great player. I now have people telling me they think I'm great, and are a little afraid of me even they see I'm at a table. Which pleases me no end😁 maybe I will realise my dream of turning professional 💋
On the turn as played his sizing seems totally fine to me. But I would have gone 1100 into 3000 and then 3000 into 5200 on the turn, setting up the small overbet on river to put the max pressure.
This would fold out anything but AX, those will probably fold with the lowest kickers, so hopefully you 4bet A2s-A6s pre so they arent in your range anyways
how is A9 your worst hand here? I mean can you even fold anything to his 3-bet? You are raising the river here so you play most of your hands as call, which means...you end up pretty wide on the river in GTO terms...
What sense did an out of position bet on an off suit J2 make? None whatsoever. It's difficult to ignore the 'inside' knowledge that the guy actually had a crap hand but here goes. Logically he should have had something in the range of A with K to 10 maybe suited, or Ks through Js or even 10s. It was your call on the flop that made him think you did not have an A in your hand and induced him to keep firing thinking he could get a fold. So letting him bet and just calling all the way down the line, including the river, was the right play. It minimized your possible loss in case he somehow had the range that made sense on the river, but took most of hs stack anyway. Obviously he would never have called a raise on the river anyway.
I like the general advice about shot takers- they either play tight or crazy- it makes sense to me. And I am glad to hear this from a man with such experience, I am sure you have many such solid general reads that give you more information to make each decision.
Here is the explanation of his intuitive read. We can assume Alec has educated himself on tells, behaviors, body language. There are 1000's of pieces of information that we learn over the tons of books and videos we read and see. If someone asked us to recall every piece of data we can't. So what is happening is that his brain has instantly calculated all this information subconsciously recalling things he learned instantaneously. Thus leading to a read like this. Watching this video I can tell you exactly what he saw.... discomfort. The opponent was all happy until he got called on the river and he didn't have a river plan and his mood turned uncomfortable. His head nodding is someone making a choice between two opposite decisions. A player with quads lets say doesn't have a polarized choice. He has a scaled choice in his bet size. Also notice the opponent took short time on the flop and turn, then a long time on the river. This again signals to me he has a plan to the turn and didn't plan for the river. When players just say "fuck it I am bluffing all 3 streets" they plow through the betting with the same length timing tell which usually is pretty quick completely ignoring the texture and changes. Sometimes when someone is strong they do the same thing when the board is threatening, but they have the nuts, and the river is a blank. I find the better player will take the most time on the flop planning the hand, then smaller times on the turn and river but not quick actions. Reads aren't the whole hand though. A read like this affects 10% of a hand usually. Either shifting a call to a fold lets say due to the adjustment on how often you need to call based on the pot size and their frequencies. OR in an exact spot like this where the range is very polarized but you have no information really to make a mathematical decision. These reads are very subject to money fear shutting them down BTW. Thus why you should not play with money fear. I had a hand the other night very similar to this and the opponent behaved exactly like this guy did on the river.
if i had the a8 here on river i bet small 2k his problem is his chip stack cant hurt anyone and his overall clownish look at the table ez call even a shove is an ez call once you decided to go that far cant fold poker comes down to do i think he has it or not - ivey
The question is a bit hubristic when enough light is shined on it. It doesn't matter how much studying, analysis or effort you direct toward the game, no one is ever going to eliminate the luck element. For those who desperately want to believe luck can be conquered, it is this type of question they might find themselves pondering. The most proficient GTO practioner will never be able to exploit luck. For that we should be thankful.
I don't think you understand GTO seeing as you never even mentioned where you are in your range and what you have to defend with given his sizing. I think you're a good player, but you don't really get game theory haha, i'd stay away from online cash!
He needs to be shoving the river so he can fold you off AX. In reality, I believe after the hand plays out this way pre, flop, and turn, you will be calling 100% of your range on the river facing this little sizing. He went half pot all the way down, thats about the least creative line I have ever seen- and in general IMO when an opponent takes a simple 3 barrel line using approx the same sizing on every street, no tricky shit, on many runouts I will put more bluffs than value in their range, (not necessarily this A8857 runout because there are only backdoor draws possible). Especially against the trickier players who like to mix in the trap often with their best hands, after they 3 barrel their value range becomes very low frequency because they end up trapping so much. Idk this guy but when they take that simple ass line it is a bit too obvious that it "screams value" because of the weird sizings. I see no reason why his bluffs would not take this line, except the fact that he can probably fold you off of way more AX by shoving river...
I’m just learning game theory from playing spots I never used solvers just play hands over 2500 hands to get an idea of what my decision are I play each hand until I get 3 excellent plays . I’m playing at 68 percent of the hands correctly on my first try … in real time I play preflop and the flop 100 percent gto or in my mind I’m sure they are not all perfect plays . Turn and river gto is out the window . I vacant get folds , villains often suck out , or bluffing a lot … and in my life cash games I rarely see any kind of gto play . Is this horrible that I know preflop and flop I’m gto and post turn river I use my basic math and instincts to make calls and big plays . My results are I’m picking up a lot of 30 bb pots after the turn . I’m losing 90 bb after turn and river 60 percent of the time and winning 100 bb pots 40 percent of the time average so since Iv been playing I’m winning but not feeling great about it … also preflop and flop my gto percentage is over 90 percent turn and river is what brings my average down . Any advice am I playing completely wrong … before my switch and little studies I was loose aggressive and bluffed alot I booked big wins and lost way more consistanly 3 buy ins per session at lower stakes with I’d say -25 percent roi now I’m probably possitive 18-25 percent
have to agree.. i like to watch players, see if i can see anything, especially when not in the hand, this guy definitely looked less confident.. just MY read.. he looked like he was trying to muster the courage to bet the pot, which MIGHT.. might, have gotten you to fold.. but his bet was just not enough..he was, i think, waffling with just check/folding, and betting.. as he didnt have the stones for this level of "game", so enjoy his chips in good health..
He is lost on the river. On the way he tanks, a shove might make you fold. Its an easy call when youre getting 3.1, and yes, the way his demeanor changed, you know he doesnt know what to do.
I prefer the shove in his situation for sure, he may have folded you off this hand because you block some clubs, but I really think a shove, although twice as expensive, could even fold you (and many others) off of AJ and weaker if you somehow read him as strong because there are so little draws (this would be my read, I tend to account for less bluffs in my opponents range when there are less draws on the board).
Intuition requires experience. Otherwise, it's just a fucking guess. You put the time in and that's why you had that feeling. While I'll just fold pre.
Intuition and subtle reads and tells.Thats why Phil Ivey is constantly scanning the other players to see what they are doing and how they act and react to certain spots.Of course a true live pro has to work on his tells and body language aside from poker work in order to be as unreadable as possible or even give fake tells and reads when needed.Amateurs however tend to give bet sizing tells constantly.
His mistake not shoving the flop. If you’re gonna gamble don’t pretend to play poker. Alec already decided this guy is a fish, saying he don’t know is kinda being humble and for the sake of analysis. Nobody calling 3 bet with A9s without that fact. River is snap call.
didn't you see that neon sign on his forehead while he was -playing with his chips and decided to make it look like a value bet?? I saw it...it said "I GOT NOTHING"....i know I could see the cards...but that's what I would have seen regardless...that guy is not a good poker player...I'm glad you took him.
Whenever I see a player 3 betting offsuit trash (J2o qualifies), I just cannot imagine they are not trying to lose money as hard as they can.... lol I need to find games like this
thepokerfish well I think the point is sometimes he will 3 bet with bluffs. And that will cause you to call 3 bets based on you thinking he's bluffing, and sometimes he'll have good hands. You have to vary your play in order to keep your ranges wide and your opponent guessing. There are multiple situations where you could 3 bet with a trashier hand than even J 2. In a larger sense if you aren't taking any risks you aren't winning big in poker that's a promise
Grinder seems to be doing well 4-betting 87o yesterday in WSOP main... getting to river and winning multiway with J8o no spade in a multiway (I believe 5 people+ seeing flop) Ace high 4 spade board w/no jack or 8 on board after barelling turn and river... maybe you have something to learn..
villain's sizings are fucking trash he needs to bet small (under 1/3ish) on flop and then bigger on turn to set up around a pot sized bet or a smaller bet if you choose. His line with a bluff accomplishes shit- he has really shitty price on the flop to fold out your KQ-T9 hands, he could make those all fold for 1100 or 1000 whatever. You have an easy call with AX facing any sizing, and now all his sizing does IMO is put your underpairs in a tough spot. But they still have an easy call 99-JJ or whatever your range is. And thats only 18 combos, a miniscule portion of your range at this point
Sorry alec that i don't think you really exercised next level poker thinking he gave every tell known that he was bluffing i think the dealer and every player at the table knew it thanks for sharing.
Doesnt have to exclude it, but it makes minimal difference, seeing as how there is only 1 combination of cards that could be pocket 8s, since the other 2 8s are on the board.
Mark Farrar Not 2 pocket 8s, just a single 8 with another high/random card giving the opponent a set of 8s. Alec himself says that 'logically' he would be folding after the opponent bets at the river but his 'intuitive read' based on change in demeanor of the opponent persuaded him to act otherwise.
Reads are sh1t. They put you in swings and when you call like this based on intuition and reads you will loose agains 1combo of set, 1 combo of quad, 8 of AK, 8 of AQ, 8 of trips per kicker.... and so on with some other Aces... and actually you beat bluff only, but on this board what kind of draw you really see? You have blocker for his backdoor bluffs, so you put him on Air and call :)
Logic isn't game theory! Game theory is a science not a philosophy! I bet Alex doesn't know the definition of game theory, I know game theory very well because I took a college course on the subject & I can assure you there is absolutely no game theory mathematics that is applied in this video!
